Aggregator

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CDT Thu Jul 04 2024 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D4/Sunday... The upper-level trough will dig slightly farther south into Oklahoma before lifting northeastward on Monday. For portions of the central/southern Plains, both the ECMWF and GFS suggest that convection will develop along the intersection of the cold and warm front within a weak surface low. Similar to Saturday, moisture will not be overly rich, but northward moisture return will be in progress. Convection is forecast to grow upscale into an MCS and move southward into the greater buoyancy. With differences in the position and intensity of the surface low, as well as possible impacts from convection on Saturday, predictability remains too low for the introduction of 15% total severe probabilities. TC Beryl continues to move towards the Yucatan Peninsula and is expected to reach the Mexican coast south of Brownsville, TX on Sunday per latest NHC forecasts. Some tornado risk is possible for parts of South Texas, but magnitude and spatial extent of this risk will depend on how much the TC restrengthens after interacting with the Peninsula and where the system will actually track late this weekend into early next week. ...D5/Monday and beyond... The upper-level trough will slowly make progress into the Midwest and eventually into the Ohio Valley and Northeast. While some severe risk is possible ahead of this trough, questions regarding destabilization and general lack of robust surface features during the upcoming week keep confidence too low for highlights at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CDT Thu Jul 04 2024 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D4/Sunday... The upper-level trough will dig slightly farther south into Oklahoma before lifting northeastward on Monday. For portions of the central/southern Plains, both the ECMWF and GFS suggest that convection will develop along the intersection of the cold and warm front within a weak surface low. Similar to Saturday, moisture will not be overly rich, but northward moisture return will be in progress. Convection is forecast to grow upscale into an MCS and move southward into the greater buoyancy. With differences in the position and intensity of the surface low, as well as possible impacts from convection on Saturday, predictability remains too low for the introduction of 15% total severe probabilities. TC Beryl continues to move towards the Yucatan Peninsula and is expected to reach the Mexican coast south of Brownsville, TX on Sunday per latest NHC forecasts. Some tornado risk is possible for parts of South Texas, but magnitude and spatial extent of this risk will depend on how much the TC restrengthens after interacting with the Peninsula and where the system will actually track late this weekend into early next week. ...D5/Monday and beyond... The upper-level trough will slowly make progress into the Midwest and eventually into the Ohio Valley and Northeast. While some severe risk is possible ahead of this trough, questions regarding destabilization and general lack of robust surface features during the upcoming week keep confidence too low for highlights at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CDT Thu Jul 04 2024 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D4/Sunday... The upper-level trough will dig slightly farther south into Oklahoma before lifting northeastward on Monday. For portions of the central/southern Plains, both the ECMWF and GFS suggest that convection will develop along the intersection of the cold and warm front within a weak surface low. Similar to Saturday, moisture will not be overly rich, but northward moisture return will be in progress. Convection is forecast to grow upscale into an MCS and move southward into the greater buoyancy. With differences in the position and intensity of the surface low, as well as possible impacts from convection on Saturday, predictability remains too low for the introduction of 15% total severe probabilities. TC Beryl continues to move towards the Yucatan Peninsula and is expected to reach the Mexican coast south of Brownsville, TX on Sunday per latest NHC forecasts. Some tornado risk is possible for parts of South Texas, but magnitude and spatial extent of this risk will depend on how much the TC restrengthens after interacting with the Peninsula and where the system will actually track late this weekend into early next week. ...D5/Monday and beyond... The upper-level trough will slowly make progress into the Midwest and eventually into the Ohio Valley and Northeast. While some severe risk is possible ahead of this trough, questions regarding destabilization and general lack of robust surface features during the upcoming week keep confidence too low for highlights at this time. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 AM CDT Thu Jul 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Potential for severe thunderstorms will exist across primarily parts of the Plains on Saturday. ...Synopsis... Broad, low-amplitude troughing aloft will be present within much of the CONUS apart from the West Coast. Shortwave perturbations moving through the broader trough are expected from the central Plains into the Midwest. At the surface, a low pressure system will be in southeastern Canada. The reservoir of richer surface moisture will have been pushed south of a cold front that will extend from the southern High Plains into the Mid-South and Northeast. As northwesterly flow aloft increases across the central Rockies, models suggest a lee surface low will develop within the CO/KS/NE vicinity. Models do differ on the intensity of this surface low as well as its exact position. ...Plains... Though moisture will have been reduced behind the cold front, models suggest that low 60s F dewpoints are possible perhaps as far north as Nebraska. In general, thunderstorm development is possible within the lee trough in the southern High Plains, near the surface low in the central High Plains, and also near a weak warm front/theta-e boundary in eastern Nebraska. The exact scenario which will produce the greatest severe risk remains uncertain, however. Given the remnant moisture, northwest flow advecting steep lapse rates into the region, and shortwave trough to provide forcing for ascent, some severe risk appears probable. At this point in time, large hail with initial supercells and a transition to more of a severe wind threat (given relatively large temperature-dewpoint spreads) are the primary concerns. The outlook area will likely have to be refined as additional guidance becomes available and confidence in corridors of greatest risk increases. ...Mid-Atlantic... Thunderstorms are possible along a weak cold front. Model trends have been for less storm coverage. Additionally, the trough may remain slightly displaced from the greatest buoyancy. Isolated strong to severe storms are possible, but coverage is too uncertain for highlights. ..Wendt.. 07/04/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 AM CDT Thu Jul 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Potential for severe thunderstorms will exist across primarily parts of the Plains on Saturday. ...Synopsis... Broad, low-amplitude troughing aloft will be present within much of the CONUS apart from the West Coast. Shortwave perturbations moving through the broader trough are expected from the central Plains into the Midwest. At the surface, a low pressure system will be in southeastern Canada. The reservoir of richer surface moisture will have been pushed south of a cold front that will extend from the southern High Plains into the Mid-South and Northeast. As northwesterly flow aloft increases across the central Rockies, models suggest a lee surface low will develop within the CO/KS/NE vicinity. Models do differ on the intensity of this surface low as well as its exact position. ...Plains... Though moisture will have been reduced behind the cold front, models suggest that low 60s F dewpoints are possible perhaps as far north as Nebraska. In general, thunderstorm development is possible within the lee trough in the southern High Plains, near the surface low in the central High Plains, and also near a weak warm front/theta-e boundary in eastern Nebraska. The exact scenario which will produce the greatest severe risk remains uncertain, however. Given the remnant moisture, northwest flow advecting steep lapse rates into the region, and shortwave trough to provide forcing for ascent, some severe risk appears probable. At this point in time, large hail with initial supercells and a transition to more of a severe wind threat (given relatively large temperature-dewpoint spreads) are the primary concerns. The outlook area will likely have to be refined as additional guidance becomes available and confidence in corridors of greatest risk increases. ...Mid-Atlantic... Thunderstorms are possible along a weak cold front. Model trends have been for less storm coverage. Additionally, the trough may remain slightly displaced from the greatest buoyancy. Isolated strong to severe storms are possible, but coverage is too uncertain for highlights. ..Wendt.. 07/04/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 AM CDT Thu Jul 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Potential for severe thunderstorms will exist across primarily parts of the Plains on Saturday. ...Synopsis... Broad, low-amplitude troughing aloft will be present within much of the CONUS apart from the West Coast. Shortwave perturbations moving through the broader trough are expected from the central Plains into the Midwest. At the surface, a low pressure system will be in southeastern Canada. The reservoir of richer surface moisture will have been pushed south of a cold front that will extend from the southern High Plains into the Mid-South and Northeast. As northwesterly flow aloft increases across the central Rockies, models suggest a lee surface low will develop within the CO/KS/NE vicinity. Models do differ on the intensity of this surface low as well as its exact position. ...Plains... Though moisture will have been reduced behind the cold front, models suggest that low 60s F dewpoints are possible perhaps as far north as Nebraska. In general, thunderstorm development is possible within the lee trough in the southern High Plains, near the surface low in the central High Plains, and also near a weak warm front/theta-e boundary in eastern Nebraska. The exact scenario which will produce the greatest severe risk remains uncertain, however. Given the remnant moisture, northwest flow advecting steep lapse rates into the region, and shortwave trough to provide forcing for ascent, some severe risk appears probable. At this point in time, large hail with initial supercells and a transition to more of a severe wind threat (given relatively large temperature-dewpoint spreads) are the primary concerns. The outlook area will likely have to be refined as additional guidance becomes available and confidence in corridors of greatest risk increases. ...Mid-Atlantic... Thunderstorms are possible along a weak cold front. Model trends have been for less storm coverage. Additionally, the trough may remain slightly displaced from the greatest buoyancy. Isolated strong to severe storms are possible, but coverage is too uncertain for highlights. ..Wendt.. 07/04/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 AM CDT Thu Jul 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Potential for severe thunderstorms will exist across primarily parts of the Plains on Saturday. ...Synopsis... Broad, low-amplitude troughing aloft will be present within much of the CONUS apart from the West Coast. Shortwave perturbations moving through the broader trough are expected from the central Plains into the Midwest. At the surface, a low pressure system will be in southeastern Canada. The reservoir of richer surface moisture will have been pushed south of a cold front that will extend from the southern High Plains into the Mid-South and Northeast. As northwesterly flow aloft increases across the central Rockies, models suggest a lee surface low will develop within the CO/KS/NE vicinity. Models do differ on the intensity of this surface low as well as its exact position. ...Plains... Though moisture will have been reduced behind the cold front, models suggest that low 60s F dewpoints are possible perhaps as far north as Nebraska. In general, thunderstorm development is possible within the lee trough in the southern High Plains, near the surface low in the central High Plains, and also near a weak warm front/theta-e boundary in eastern Nebraska. The exact scenario which will produce the greatest severe risk remains uncertain, however. Given the remnant moisture, northwest flow advecting steep lapse rates into the region, and shortwave trough to provide forcing for ascent, some severe risk appears probable. At this point in time, large hail with initial supercells and a transition to more of a severe wind threat (given relatively large temperature-dewpoint spreads) are the primary concerns. The outlook area will likely have to be refined as additional guidance becomes available and confidence in corridors of greatest risk increases. ...Mid-Atlantic... Thunderstorms are possible along a weak cold front. Model trends have been for less storm coverage. Additionally, the trough may remain slightly displaced from the greatest buoyancy. Isolated strong to severe storms are possible, but coverage is too uncertain for highlights. ..Wendt.. 07/04/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 AM CDT Thu Jul 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Potential for severe thunderstorms will exist across primarily parts of the Plains on Saturday. ...Synopsis... Broad, low-amplitude troughing aloft will be present within much of the CONUS apart from the West Coast. Shortwave perturbations moving through the broader trough are expected from the central Plains into the Midwest. At the surface, a low pressure system will be in southeastern Canada. The reservoir of richer surface moisture will have been pushed south of a cold front that will extend from the southern High Plains into the Mid-South and Northeast. As northwesterly flow aloft increases across the central Rockies, models suggest a lee surface low will develop within the CO/KS/NE vicinity. Models do differ on the intensity of this surface low as well as its exact position. ...Plains... Though moisture will have been reduced behind the cold front, models suggest that low 60s F dewpoints are possible perhaps as far north as Nebraska. In general, thunderstorm development is possible within the lee trough in the southern High Plains, near the surface low in the central High Plains, and also near a weak warm front/theta-e boundary in eastern Nebraska. The exact scenario which will produce the greatest severe risk remains uncertain, however. Given the remnant moisture, northwest flow advecting steep lapse rates into the region, and shortwave trough to provide forcing for ascent, some severe risk appears probable. At this point in time, large hail with initial supercells and a transition to more of a severe wind threat (given relatively large temperature-dewpoint spreads) are the primary concerns. The outlook area will likely have to be refined as additional guidance becomes available and confidence in corridors of greatest risk increases. ...Mid-Atlantic... Thunderstorms are possible along a weak cold front. Model trends have been for less storm coverage. Additionally, the trough may remain slightly displaced from the greatest buoyancy. Isolated strong to severe storms are possible, but coverage is too uncertain for highlights. ..Wendt.. 07/04/2024 Read more

MD 1532 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN KANSAS INTO WESTERN MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 1532 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 AM CDT Thu Jul 04 2024 Areas affected...eastern Kansas into western Missouri Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 040635Z - 040830Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Potential for strong to severe surface gusts with thunderstorm activity spreading toward the Missouri/Kansas state border (near and south of Kansas City) through 3-4 AM CDT, appears to be waning. It seems unlikely a severe weather watch will be needed, but trends are being monitored. DISCUSSION...An ongoing cluster of storms developing eastward along the Interstate 70 corridor, and east of the Interstate 135 corridor, of central Kansas appears rooted within ascent associated with lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection. This is generally forecast to continue spreading eastward ahead of a mid-level short wave trough progressing toward the lower Missouri Valley through daybreak. Earlier stronger convection appeared to develop strong mid-level rear inflow near/east of Hill City, which eventually contributed to a number of severe surface gusts across the Hayes/Russell through Salina vicinities, including up to at least 71 kt at Salina at 0538Z. This has recently been surging southeastward toward areas near and northeast of Wichita, and is now out ahead of the stronger convection now approaching the Missouri/Kansas state border (near and south of the Greater Kansas City area) through 08-08Z. Gusts associated with southeastward surging outflow seem likely to continue to wane during the next hour or two. At the same time, potential for renewed strengthening of rear inflow and downward momentum transfer seem limited, in the presence of more modest lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates across eastern Kansas into western Missouri. ..Kerr/Kerr.. 07/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN... LAT...LON 39179685 39449556 39389427 38739268 37009419 36959609 36999771 37839742 38589667 39179685 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CDT Thu Jul 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Similar conditions present over the Interior West today should also occur again for tomorrow (Friday). A mid-level trough will remain in place over the Plains/Mississippi Valley areas as a mid-level anticyclone meanders along the West Coast. Widespread dry conditions (i.e. 10-20 percent RH) should be prevalent by afternoon from the Pacific Northwest to the Desert Southwest. Still, sustained surface winds should remain below 15 mph on the large scale, though terrain-favoring areas may experience localized Elevated conditions. ..Squitieri.. 07/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CDT Thu Jul 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Similar conditions present over the Interior West today should also occur again for tomorrow (Friday). A mid-level trough will remain in place over the Plains/Mississippi Valley areas as a mid-level anticyclone meanders along the West Coast. Widespread dry conditions (i.e. 10-20 percent RH) should be prevalent by afternoon from the Pacific Northwest to the Desert Southwest. Still, sustained surface winds should remain below 15 mph on the large scale, though terrain-favoring areas may experience localized Elevated conditions. ..Squitieri.. 07/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CDT Thu Jul 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Similar conditions present over the Interior West today should also occur again for tomorrow (Friday). A mid-level trough will remain in place over the Plains/Mississippi Valley areas as a mid-level anticyclone meanders along the West Coast. Widespread dry conditions (i.e. 10-20 percent RH) should be prevalent by afternoon from the Pacific Northwest to the Desert Southwest. Still, sustained surface winds should remain below 15 mph on the large scale, though terrain-favoring areas may experience localized Elevated conditions. ..Squitieri.. 07/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CDT Thu Jul 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Similar conditions present over the Interior West today should also occur again for tomorrow (Friday). A mid-level trough will remain in place over the Plains/Mississippi Valley areas as a mid-level anticyclone meanders along the West Coast. Widespread dry conditions (i.e. 10-20 percent RH) should be prevalent by afternoon from the Pacific Northwest to the Desert Southwest. Still, sustained surface winds should remain below 15 mph on the large scale, though terrain-favoring areas may experience localized Elevated conditions. ..Squitieri.. 07/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CDT Thu Jul 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Similar conditions present over the Interior West today should also occur again for tomorrow (Friday). A mid-level trough will remain in place over the Plains/Mississippi Valley areas as a mid-level anticyclone meanders along the West Coast. Widespread dry conditions (i.e. 10-20 percent RH) should be prevalent by afternoon from the Pacific Northwest to the Desert Southwest. Still, sustained surface winds should remain below 15 mph on the large scale, though terrain-favoring areas may experience localized Elevated conditions. ..Squitieri.. 07/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 AM CDT Thu Jul 04 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will move across the central U.S. as upper ridging builds back over the Interior West today. Stronger deep-layer northwesterly flow will overspread the West Coast, that with boundary-layer heating/mixing, may reach the surface in terrain favoring locations. Once such place is the San Joaquin Valley area in central California, where 15 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds may coincide with 10-15 percent RH by afternoon peak heating, warranting the continuation of Elevated highlights. Dry and occasionally breezy conditions may also be expected across much of the Great Basin into the central Rockies this afternoon. Though widespread 10-15 percent RH should be common, stronger surface winds are not likely to be particularly widespread. Nonetheless, locally windy conditions (and associated wildfire-spread potential) are possible in terrain favoring areas. ..Squitieri.. 07/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 AM CDT Thu Jul 04 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will move across the central U.S. as upper ridging builds back over the Interior West today. Stronger deep-layer northwesterly flow will overspread the West Coast, that with boundary-layer heating/mixing, may reach the surface in terrain favoring locations. Once such place is the San Joaquin Valley area in central California, where 15 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds may coincide with 10-15 percent RH by afternoon peak heating, warranting the continuation of Elevated highlights. Dry and occasionally breezy conditions may also be expected across much of the Great Basin into the central Rockies this afternoon. Though widespread 10-15 percent RH should be common, stronger surface winds are not likely to be particularly widespread. Nonetheless, locally windy conditions (and associated wildfire-spread potential) are possible in terrain favoring areas. ..Squitieri.. 07/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 AM CDT Thu Jul 04 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will move across the central U.S. as upper ridging builds back over the Interior West today. Stronger deep-layer northwesterly flow will overspread the West Coast, that with boundary-layer heating/mixing, may reach the surface in terrain favoring locations. Once such place is the San Joaquin Valley area in central California, where 15 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds may coincide with 10-15 percent RH by afternoon peak heating, warranting the continuation of Elevated highlights. Dry and occasionally breezy conditions may also be expected across much of the Great Basin into the central Rockies this afternoon. Though widespread 10-15 percent RH should be common, stronger surface winds are not likely to be particularly widespread. Nonetheless, locally windy conditions (and associated wildfire-spread potential) are possible in terrain favoring areas. ..Squitieri.. 07/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 AM CDT Thu Jul 04 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will move across the central U.S. as upper ridging builds back over the Interior West today. Stronger deep-layer northwesterly flow will overspread the West Coast, that with boundary-layer heating/mixing, may reach the surface in terrain favoring locations. Once such place is the San Joaquin Valley area in central California, where 15 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds may coincide with 10-15 percent RH by afternoon peak heating, warranting the continuation of Elevated highlights. Dry and occasionally breezy conditions may also be expected across much of the Great Basin into the central Rockies this afternoon. Though widespread 10-15 percent RH should be common, stronger surface winds are not likely to be particularly widespread. Nonetheless, locally windy conditions (and associated wildfire-spread potential) are possible in terrain favoring areas. ..Squitieri.. 07/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 AM CDT Thu Jul 04 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will move across the central U.S. as upper ridging builds back over the Interior West today. Stronger deep-layer northwesterly flow will overspread the West Coast, that with boundary-layer heating/mixing, may reach the surface in terrain favoring locations. Once such place is the San Joaquin Valley area in central California, where 15 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds may coincide with 10-15 percent RH by afternoon peak heating, warranting the continuation of Elevated highlights. Dry and occasionally breezy conditions may also be expected across much of the Great Basin into the central Rockies this afternoon. Though widespread 10-15 percent RH should be common, stronger surface winds are not likely to be particularly widespread. Nonetheless, locally windy conditions (and associated wildfire-spread potential) are possible in terrain favoring areas. ..Squitieri.. 07/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 AM CDT Thu Jul 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe storms are most likely across parts of the upper Ohio Valley on Friday. ...Synopsis... An upper-level low in the Upper Midwest will continue eastward on Saturday before becoming more of an open wave by Saturday morning. A potent mid-level jet is anticipated across parts of the upper Ohio Valley during the afternoon. At the surface, a low in the Lake Michigan/Lower Michigan vicinity will also track eastward, with a attendant cold front moving through the Ohio Valley by mid/late afternoon and evening. ...Upper Ohio Valley... Uncertainty remains relatively high in the degree of surface-based destabilization that will occur by the afternoon. Morning showers/thunderstorms are possible within a weak warm advection regime. Further, cloud cover from the remnants of convection moving through the lower Ohio Valley on Thursday night may also have an impact. Given the moist airmass (low 70s F dewpoints), broken cloud cover would still allow 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE (perhaps near 2000 J/kg in the southernmost areas). Effective shear will range from 35 kts to the south and increase to around 50 kts to the north. On the lower end of destabilization, only isolated cells would be likely. Should greater surface heating occur, a linear segment or two could develop. Damaging winds and small hail are possible with the strongest storms. ...Blue Ridge... Strong heating is expected within a high PWAT airmass. Temperatures are expected to reach the mid 90s F. Though mid-level heights will remain neutral, convection is probable within the terrain. Weak deep-layer shear and similarly weak anvil-level flow should keep storm organization minimal. Confidence in more than isolated wet microbursts is too low for highlights. ..Wendt.. 07/04/2024 Read more