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WW 501 SEVERE TSTM CO NE 031840Z - 040100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 501 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 PM MDT Wed Jul 3 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northeast Colorado The Nebraska Panhandle into Central Nebraska * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 1240 PM until 700 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Supercell thunderstorms will initially pose a threat for large hail this afternoon. Some of the hail may be very large, with isolated hailstones up to 2-3 inches in diameter. Otherwise, severe/damaging winds around 60-75 mph should become an increasing concern late this afternoon and evening as thunderstorms potentially form into a small bowing cluster. A tornado or two also appears possible, mainly across north-central Nebraska. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 85 statute miles east and west of a line from 20 miles west northwest of Valentine NE to 15 miles west southwest of Imperial NE. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27030. ...Gleason Read more

WW 0503 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 503 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 ENE DGW TO 30 NNW PHP. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1529 ..MOORE..07/03/24 ATTN...WFO...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 503 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS SDC007-047-071-102-103-040040- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENNETT FALL RIVER JACKSON OGLALA LAKOTA PENNINGTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0503 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 503 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 ENE DGW TO 30 NNW PHP. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1529 ..MOORE..07/03/24 ATTN...WFO...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 503 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS SDC007-047-071-102-103-040040- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENNETT FALL RIVER JACKSON OGLALA LAKOTA PENNINGTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0503 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 503 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 ENE DGW TO 30 NNW PHP. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1529 ..MOORE..07/03/24 ATTN...WFO...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 503 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS SDC007-047-071-102-103-040040- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENNETT FALL RIVER JACKSON OGLALA LAKOTA PENNINGTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0503 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 503 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 ENE DGW TO 30 NNW PHP. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1529 ..MOORE..07/03/24 ATTN...WFO...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 503 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS SDC007-047-071-102-103-040040- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENNETT FALL RIVER JACKSON OGLALA LAKOTA PENNINGTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 503 SEVERE TSTM SD 032145Z - 040300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 503 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 345 PM MDT Wed Jul 3 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southwest South Dakota * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 345 PM until 900 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A cluster of thunderstorms west of the Black Hills will track east-southeastward across the watch area through the early evening, posing a risk of damaging winds and large hail. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles north and south of a line from 55 miles west southwest of Rapid City SD to 40 miles south southeast of Philip SD. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 501...WW 502... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 28030. ...Hart Read more

MD 1530 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 501...502...504... FOR SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL NE...NORTHWEST KS...EAST-CENTRAL CO
Mesoscale Discussion 1530 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0653 PM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024 Areas affected...southwest/south-central NE...northwest KS...east-central CO Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 501...502...504... Valid 032353Z - 040130Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 501, 502, 504 continues. SUMMARY...Multiple swaths of severe hail and wind are expected to evolve east-southeastward across parts of southern Nebraska and northwest Kansas through sunset. This will include risks for significant severe hail to around 2.5 inches in diameter and wind gusts to around 80 mph, as well as a brief tornado or two. DISCUSSION...Multiple linear segments/clusters and embedded/discrete supercells are ongoing across parts of east-central CO into central NE. Moderate buoyancy persists ahead of this activity, with the peak axis along the CO/KS border into far southwest NE. Severe wind potential will probably be comparatively greater across northwest KS as the east-central CO spreads across this buoyancy plume, a scenario continuing to be advertised by recent WoFS guidance. This may yield gusts from 65-80 mph. Farther northeast, measured wind gusts have been generally strong owing to the slow-moving and backbuilding nature of the QLCS, especially with southwestward extent. Still, gusts from 50-65 mph will remain possible from southwest into central NE. ..Grams.. 07/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD... LAT...LON 40990058 41509952 41419840 40529865 39559969 38970093 38730308 39280310 39710231 40560180 40990058 Read more

MD 1528 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...EXTREME SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN INDIANA...WESTERN INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY
Mesoscale Discussion 1528 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0610 PM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024 Areas affected...portions of far southeast Missouri...extreme southern Illinois...extreme southwestern Indiana...western into central Kentucky Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 032310Z - 040045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A few damaging gusts (one or two of which may reach the 50-60 mph range) remain possible this afternoon. The severe threat is expected to remain isolated, and a WW issuance is not expected. DISCUSSION...An uptick in thunderstorm coverage and intensity has recently occurred along a stationary boundary, evident via MRMS mosaic and regional radar imagery. These storms are slowly propagating southward into a pristine environment with surface temperatures still over 90 F amid low to mid 70s F dewpoints, yielding over 3000 J/kg MLCAPE in spots. Still, vertical shear is modest at best, with around 30 kts of effective bulk shear that is oriented (vector-wise) roughly parallel with the orientation of ongoing linear convection. Given 7.5 0-3 km lapse rates, at least a couple of strong wind gusts are possible, and a severe gust cannot be completely ruled out. Nonetheless, the severe threat should remain isolated and a WW issuance is not expected. ..Squitieri/Hart.. 07/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH... LAT...LON 36689041 37618858 37988739 38128609 38018584 37408556 36888580 36748696 36638825 36598970 36689041 Read more

MD 1529 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 501...503... FOR SOUTHWEST SD AND NORTHWEST NE
Mesoscale Discussion 1529 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0616 PM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024 Areas affected...Southwest SD and northwest NE Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 501...503... Valid 032316Z - 040045Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 501, 503 continues. SUMMARY...A long-lived supercell may continue to produce large hail as it moves east-southeast in southwest South Dakota. Additional higher-based storms may develop to its southwest in northwest Nebraska, yielding a severe threat beyond the 01Z expiration of WW 501. DISCUSSION...A long-lived supercell has tracked across a part of the Black Hills with several reported severe hail events, most recently up to around 1.5 inches in diameter. Per UDX radar, this cell is riding immediately behind the composite outflow/front moving southeast in southwest SD. The trailing portion of this boundary will impinge on a pocket of residual buoyancy that was not overturned by the QLCS in north-central to southwest NE. Recent HRRR guidance has been insistent on additional development through dusk, which would likely yield potential for a supercell or two into northwest NE after the 01Z scheduled expiration of WW 501. This threat should be short-lived however, given the extensive nature of the QLCS to the southeast and eventual inflow of overturned air as it advects northwestward this evening. ..Grams.. 07/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...CYS... LAT...LON 43820293 43620136 43180112 42750114 42440198 42350272 42350339 42700407 43070432 43820293 Read more

MD 1527 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 502... FOR SOUTHEAST CO AND SOUTHWEST KS
Mesoscale Discussion 1527 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0546 PM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024 Areas affected...southeast CO and southwest KS Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 502... Valid 032246Z - 040015Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 502 continues. SUMMARY...A swath of severe wind gusts will likely spread into southwest Kansas from southeast Colorado. Gusts of 60-75 mph are probable. DISCUSSION...Initial cells are consolidating into a small cluster near and south of LHX in southeast CO. While this process is yielding weakening MRMS MESH cores, the threat for severe wind gusts will likely persist eastward as the cluster impinges on peak MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg near the southwest KS border. Recent WoFS guidance has been consistent that severe wind gusts will likely spread at least a couple tiers of counties into KS, with speeds of 70-75 mph anticipated. ..Grams.. 07/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB... LAT...LON 38110369 38460225 38440154 38000118 37590135 37340208 37560338 38110369 Read more

MD 1526 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 1526 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0531 PM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024 Areas affected...portions of northeastern Oklahoma into southwestern Missouri Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 032231Z - 040000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Strong thunderstorms may develop through the remainder of the afternoon. A couple instances of severe wind and hail are possible. However, any severe threat that materializes should remain isolated, so a WW issuance is not expected. DISCUSSION...Visible satellite and MRMS mosaic radar imagery shows a line of cumulus congestus and associated isolated thunderstorm development, located along a baroclinic boundary extending from southwestern MO into northeast OK. These storms are developing amid 2000 J/kg MLCAPE and 35+ kts of effective bulk shear. Straight hodographs with modest length are noted via regional VAD profilers, suggesting that multicells and perhaps transient supercells will be the primary modes of convection for any storms that can become established. Severe wind and hail are the main concerns. However, the severe threat should remain isolated, and a WW issuance is not currently anticipated. ..Squitieri/Hart.. 07/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...OUN... LAT...LON 36279252 35979391 35619548 35559637 35479731 35569795 36039812 36099805 36579585 36989397 36849312 36689249 36279252 Read more

WW 0503 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 503 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 ENE DGW TO 30 NNW PHP. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1529 ..MOORE..07/03/24 ATTN...WFO...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 503 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS SDC007-047-071-102-103-040040- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENNETT FALL RIVER JACKSON OGLALA LAKOTA PENNINGTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 503 SEVERE TSTM SD 032145Z - 040300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 503 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 345 PM MDT Wed Jul 3 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southwest South Dakota * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 345 PM until 900 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A cluster of thunderstorms west of the Black Hills will track east-southeastward across the watch area through the early evening, posing a risk of damaging winds and large hail. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles north and south of a line from 55 miles west southwest of Rapid City SD to 40 miles south southeast of Philip SD. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 501...WW 502... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 28030. ...Hart Read more

WW 0502 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 502 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW CAO TO 40 S LHX TO 15 ESE PUB. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1527 ..MOORE..07/03/24 ATTN...WFO...PUB...GLD...DDC... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 502 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC009-011-017-025-061-063-089-099-125-040040- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BACA BENT CHEYENNE CROWLEY KIOWA KIT CARSON OTERO PROWERS YUMA KSC023-039-055-063-065-067-071-075-081-093-101-109-129-137-153- 171-175-179-181-187-189-193-199-203-040040- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE DECATUR FINNEY GOVE GRAHAM GRANT GREELEY HAMILTON HASKELL KEARNY LANE LOGAN MORTON NORTON RAWLINS SCOTT SEWARD SHERIDAN SHERMAN STANTON STEVENS Read more

WW 502 SEVERE TSTM CO KS NE 032130Z - 040300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 502 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 330 PM MDT Wed Jul 3 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern Colorado Western Kansas Southwest Nebraska * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 330 PM until 900 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms developing over eastern Colorado will spread eastward this evening into western Kansas. Locally damaging wind gusts are expected to be the main threat with these storms. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles west northwest of Mccook NE to 20 miles south of Springfield CO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 501... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27030. ...Hart Read more

WW 0501 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 501 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW AKO TO 30 SSE SNY TO 20 NE CDR. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1525 ..MOORE..07/03/24 ATTN...WFO...BOU...LBF...CYS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 501 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC039-073-095-115-121-040040- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ELBERT LINCOLN PHILLIPS SEDGWICK WASHINGTON NEC005-009-015-017-029-031-041-049-063-069-071-075-085-089-091- 101-103-111-113-115-117-135-149-161-171-183-040040- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARTHUR BLAINE BOYD BROWN CHASE CHERRY CUSTER DEUEL FRONTIER GARDEN GARFIELD GRANT HAYES HOLT HOOKER KEITH KEYA PAHA LINCOLN LOGAN LOUP MCPHERSON PERKINS ROCK SHERIDAN Read more

WW 501 SEVERE TSTM CO NE 031840Z - 040100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 501 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 PM MDT Wed Jul 3 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northeast Colorado The Nebraska Panhandle into Central Nebraska * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 1240 PM until 700 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Supercell thunderstorms will initially pose a threat for large hail this afternoon. Some of the hail may be very large, with isolated hailstones up to 2-3 inches in diameter. Otherwise, severe/damaging winds around 60-75 mph should become an increasing concern late this afternoon and evening as thunderstorms potentially form into a small bowing cluster. A tornado or two also appears possible, mainly across north-central Nebraska. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 85 statute miles east and west of a line from 20 miles west northwest of Valentine NE to 15 miles west southwest of Imperial NE. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27030. ...Gleason Read more

MD 1525 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 501...502... FOR EAST-CENTRAL CO INTO FAR NORTHWEST KS
Mesoscale Discussion 1525 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0528 PM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024 Areas affected...east-central CO into far northwest KS Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 501...502... Valid 032228Z - 032330Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 501, 502 continues. SUMMARY...The greatest risk for significant severe hail between 2-2.5 inches is anticipated through about 7 PM MDT over east-central Colorado near the I-70 corridor. An increase in severe wind potential is expected towards the northwest Kansas border. DISCUSSION...A pair of slow-moving supercells between Denver and Limon will have the greatest potential to produce large hail beyond 2 inches over the next 2-3 hours. These storms will move towards the peak buoyancy plume characterized by MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg along the CO/KS border area. With favorable westerly speed shear above 2 km AGL per the FTG/PUX VWP data, in conjunction with a modest increase in low-level south-southeasterly flow in the next few hours, intensification of these supercells is plausible. This will also include a risk for increasing severe wind gusts, as persistently indicated by recent WoFS guidance. ..Grams.. 07/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GLD...BOU... LAT...LON 39830361 39980274 39970215 39660166 39120175 38850206 38660292 38850368 39380403 39830361 Read more

Crop damage in the eastern Carolinas was irreversible for some crops. The director of the North Carolina Farm Service Agency stated that the corn crop may not be much. Some soybeans have died, and sweet potatoes were struggling. The tobacco was affected by the dry conditions, but it was not yet clear how the quality would be affected. SFN Today (Raleigh, N.C.), July 3, 2024

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 032306
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Wed Jul 3 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southern Mexico (EP91):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located a few hundred miles south of the southern coast of
Mexico continue to show signs of organization. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for some further development of this
system during the next day or so, and a short-lived tropical
depression could form during that time. On Friday, the system is
forecast to move over cooler waters and development after that time
is not expected. The disturbance is forecast to move northward to
northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, remaining offshore of the
southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium....60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Cangialosi