Aggregator

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 AM CDT Thu Jul 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe storms are most likely across parts of the upper Ohio Valley on Friday. ...Synopsis... An upper-level low in the Upper Midwest will continue eastward on Saturday before becoming more of an open wave by Saturday morning. A potent mid-level jet is anticipated across parts of the upper Ohio Valley during the afternoon. At the surface, a low in the Lake Michigan/Lower Michigan vicinity will also track eastward, with a attendant cold front moving through the Ohio Valley by mid/late afternoon and evening. ...Upper Ohio Valley... Uncertainty remains relatively high in the degree of surface-based destabilization that will occur by the afternoon. Morning showers/thunderstorms are possible within a weak warm advection regime. Further, cloud cover from the remnants of convection moving through the lower Ohio Valley on Thursday night may also have an impact. Given the moist airmass (low 70s F dewpoints), broken cloud cover would still allow 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE (perhaps near 2000 J/kg in the southernmost areas). Effective shear will range from 35 kts to the south and increase to around 50 kts to the north. On the lower end of destabilization, only isolated cells would be likely. Should greater surface heating occur, a linear segment or two could develop. Damaging winds and small hail are possible with the strongest storms. ...Blue Ridge... Strong heating is expected within a high PWAT airmass. Temperatures are expected to reach the mid 90s F. Though mid-level heights will remain neutral, convection is probable within the terrain. Weak deep-layer shear and similarly weak anvil-level flow should keep storm organization minimal. Confidence in more than isolated wet microbursts is too low for highlights. ..Wendt.. 07/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CDT Thu Jul 04 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND FROM THE MISSOURI OZARKS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley, Ozarks, and southern Plains. ...Discussion... Seasonally strong upper trough is shifting east across the northern Plains early this morning. This feature is forecast to advance toward the middle MO Valley by late afternoon as 500mb, 60kt speed max translates across southeast NE into IA. Left exit region of this speed max will spread across the upper MS Valley along with a corridor of modest 12hr mid-level height falls. Latest model guidance suggests a weak surface low will develop and track along the MN/IA border into southwest WI by late evening. This corridor appears favorable for robust convective development as boundary layer warms and convective temperatures are breached, likely by midday, as readings warm through the upper 70s-80F. Forecast soundings exhibit veering wind profiles with height, and some supercell potential exists within this zone of focused ascent. Large hail and locally damaging winds are the primary concerns. Farther south, an expansive corridor of convection has evolved over the central Plains early this morning. Upscale growth may continue for the next few hours, and a long-lived MCS should propagate across eastern KS into MO by sunrise. While this complex may not be particularly severe at daybreak, a long-lived MCS, or its remnants, will advance downstream into the OH Valley as modest mid-level flow will extend along a corridor from MO into southern OH. Models are not too aggressive in steepening low-level lapse rates east of the MS River later today, but some surface heating is expected to contribute to increased buoyancy that will likely contribute to new robust updrafts developing along the MCS outflow/differential- heating zone. Will maintain MRGL risk across this region, although somewhat higher severe probabilities may be warranted, especially across KY along the southern flank of the forward-propagating MCS. Later in the day, very strong surface heating across the southern Plains will result in steep surface-3km lapse rates from northwest TX, across central into northeast OK. As the northern Plains trough shifts east, mid-level flow will begin to turn more westerly across northern OK, and 500mb speeds will increase to 25-40kt north of I-40. Convective temperatures will be breached by 22z, just ahead of the surface front, and scattered thunderstorms should easily develop along the wind shift. PWs will be very high across this region with values in excess of 2 inches. With temp/dew point spreads around 30F, there is increasing confidence that the most robust convection should generate severe downdrafts. A fairly concentrated corridor of convection should evolve downstream into the MO Ozarks by early evening. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 07/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CDT Thu Jul 04 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND FROM THE MISSOURI OZARKS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley, Ozarks, and southern Plains. ...Discussion... Seasonally strong upper trough is shifting east across the northern Plains early this morning. This feature is forecast to advance toward the middle MO Valley by late afternoon as 500mb, 60kt speed max translates across southeast NE into IA. Left exit region of this speed max will spread across the upper MS Valley along with a corridor of modest 12hr mid-level height falls. Latest model guidance suggests a weak surface low will develop and track along the MN/IA border into southwest WI by late evening. This corridor appears favorable for robust convective development as boundary layer warms and convective temperatures are breached, likely by midday, as readings warm through the upper 70s-80F. Forecast soundings exhibit veering wind profiles with height, and some supercell potential exists within this zone of focused ascent. Large hail and locally damaging winds are the primary concerns. Farther south, an expansive corridor of convection has evolved over the central Plains early this morning. Upscale growth may continue for the next few hours, and a long-lived MCS should propagate across eastern KS into MO by sunrise. While this complex may not be particularly severe at daybreak, a long-lived MCS, or its remnants, will advance downstream into the OH Valley as modest mid-level flow will extend along a corridor from MO into southern OH. Models are not too aggressive in steepening low-level lapse rates east of the MS River later today, but some surface heating is expected to contribute to increased buoyancy that will likely contribute to new robust updrafts developing along the MCS outflow/differential- heating zone. Will maintain MRGL risk across this region, although somewhat higher severe probabilities may be warranted, especially across KY along the southern flank of the forward-propagating MCS. Later in the day, very strong surface heating across the southern Plains will result in steep surface-3km lapse rates from northwest TX, across central into northeast OK. As the northern Plains trough shifts east, mid-level flow will begin to turn more westerly across northern OK, and 500mb speeds will increase to 25-40kt north of I-40. Convective temperatures will be breached by 22z, just ahead of the surface front, and scattered thunderstorms should easily develop along the wind shift. PWs will be very high across this region with values in excess of 2 inches. With temp/dew point spreads around 30F, there is increasing confidence that the most robust convection should generate severe downdrafts. A fairly concentrated corridor of convection should evolve downstream into the MO Ozarks by early evening. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 07/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CDT Thu Jul 04 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND FROM THE MISSOURI OZARKS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley, Ozarks, and southern Plains. ...Discussion... Seasonally strong upper trough is shifting east across the northern Plains early this morning. This feature is forecast to advance toward the middle MO Valley by late afternoon as 500mb, 60kt speed max translates across southeast NE into IA. Left exit region of this speed max will spread across the upper MS Valley along with a corridor of modest 12hr mid-level height falls. Latest model guidance suggests a weak surface low will develop and track along the MN/IA border into southwest WI by late evening. This corridor appears favorable for robust convective development as boundary layer warms and convective temperatures are breached, likely by midday, as readings warm through the upper 70s-80F. Forecast soundings exhibit veering wind profiles with height, and some supercell potential exists within this zone of focused ascent. Large hail and locally damaging winds are the primary concerns. Farther south, an expansive corridor of convection has evolved over the central Plains early this morning. Upscale growth may continue for the next few hours, and a long-lived MCS should propagate across eastern KS into MO by sunrise. While this complex may not be particularly severe at daybreak, a long-lived MCS, or its remnants, will advance downstream into the OH Valley as modest mid-level flow will extend along a corridor from MO into southern OH. Models are not too aggressive in steepening low-level lapse rates east of the MS River later today, but some surface heating is expected to contribute to increased buoyancy that will likely contribute to new robust updrafts developing along the MCS outflow/differential- heating zone. Will maintain MRGL risk across this region, although somewhat higher severe probabilities may be warranted, especially across KY along the southern flank of the forward-propagating MCS. Later in the day, very strong surface heating across the southern Plains will result in steep surface-3km lapse rates from northwest TX, across central into northeast OK. As the northern Plains trough shifts east, mid-level flow will begin to turn more westerly across northern OK, and 500mb speeds will increase to 25-40kt north of I-40. Convective temperatures will be breached by 22z, just ahead of the surface front, and scattered thunderstorms should easily develop along the wind shift. PWs will be very high across this region with values in excess of 2 inches. With temp/dew point spreads around 30F, there is increasing confidence that the most robust convection should generate severe downdrafts. A fairly concentrated corridor of convection should evolve downstream into the MO Ozarks by early evening. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 07/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CDT Thu Jul 04 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND FROM THE MISSOURI OZARKS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley, Ozarks, and southern Plains. ...Discussion... Seasonally strong upper trough is shifting east across the northern Plains early this morning. This feature is forecast to advance toward the middle MO Valley by late afternoon as 500mb, 60kt speed max translates across southeast NE into IA. Left exit region of this speed max will spread across the upper MS Valley along with a corridor of modest 12hr mid-level height falls. Latest model guidance suggests a weak surface low will develop and track along the MN/IA border into southwest WI by late evening. This corridor appears favorable for robust convective development as boundary layer warms and convective temperatures are breached, likely by midday, as readings warm through the upper 70s-80F. Forecast soundings exhibit veering wind profiles with height, and some supercell potential exists within this zone of focused ascent. Large hail and locally damaging winds are the primary concerns. Farther south, an expansive corridor of convection has evolved over the central Plains early this morning. Upscale growth may continue for the next few hours, and a long-lived MCS should propagate across eastern KS into MO by sunrise. While this complex may not be particularly severe at daybreak, a long-lived MCS, or its remnants, will advance downstream into the OH Valley as modest mid-level flow will extend along a corridor from MO into southern OH. Models are not too aggressive in steepening low-level lapse rates east of the MS River later today, but some surface heating is expected to contribute to increased buoyancy that will likely contribute to new robust updrafts developing along the MCS outflow/differential- heating zone. Will maintain MRGL risk across this region, although somewhat higher severe probabilities may be warranted, especially across KY along the southern flank of the forward-propagating MCS. Later in the day, very strong surface heating across the southern Plains will result in steep surface-3km lapse rates from northwest TX, across central into northeast OK. As the northern Plains trough shifts east, mid-level flow will begin to turn more westerly across northern OK, and 500mb speeds will increase to 25-40kt north of I-40. Convective temperatures will be breached by 22z, just ahead of the surface front, and scattered thunderstorms should easily develop along the wind shift. PWs will be very high across this region with values in excess of 2 inches. With temp/dew point spreads around 30F, there is increasing confidence that the most robust convection should generate severe downdrafts. A fairly concentrated corridor of convection should evolve downstream into the MO Ozarks by early evening. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 07/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CDT Thu Jul 04 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND FROM THE MISSOURI OZARKS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley, Ozarks, and southern Plains. ...Discussion... Seasonally strong upper trough is shifting east across the northern Plains early this morning. This feature is forecast to advance toward the middle MO Valley by late afternoon as 500mb, 60kt speed max translates across southeast NE into IA. Left exit region of this speed max will spread across the upper MS Valley along with a corridor of modest 12hr mid-level height falls. Latest model guidance suggests a weak surface low will develop and track along the MN/IA border into southwest WI by late evening. This corridor appears favorable for robust convective development as boundary layer warms and convective temperatures are breached, likely by midday, as readings warm through the upper 70s-80F. Forecast soundings exhibit veering wind profiles with height, and some supercell potential exists within this zone of focused ascent. Large hail and locally damaging winds are the primary concerns. Farther south, an expansive corridor of convection has evolved over the central Plains early this morning. Upscale growth may continue for the next few hours, and a long-lived MCS should propagate across eastern KS into MO by sunrise. While this complex may not be particularly severe at daybreak, a long-lived MCS, or its remnants, will advance downstream into the OH Valley as modest mid-level flow will extend along a corridor from MO into southern OH. Models are not too aggressive in steepening low-level lapse rates east of the MS River later today, but some surface heating is expected to contribute to increased buoyancy that will likely contribute to new robust updrafts developing along the MCS outflow/differential- heating zone. Will maintain MRGL risk across this region, although somewhat higher severe probabilities may be warranted, especially across KY along the southern flank of the forward-propagating MCS. Later in the day, very strong surface heating across the southern Plains will result in steep surface-3km lapse rates from northwest TX, across central into northeast OK. As the northern Plains trough shifts east, mid-level flow will begin to turn more westerly across northern OK, and 500mb speeds will increase to 25-40kt north of I-40. Convective temperatures will be breached by 22z, just ahead of the surface front, and scattered thunderstorms should easily develop along the wind shift. PWs will be very high across this region with values in excess of 2 inches. With temp/dew point spreads around 30F, there is increasing confidence that the most robust convection should generate severe downdrafts. A fairly concentrated corridor of convection should evolve downstream into the MO Ozarks by early evening. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 07/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CDT Thu Jul 04 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND FROM THE MISSOURI OZARKS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley, Ozarks, and southern Plains. ...Discussion... Seasonally strong upper trough is shifting east across the northern Plains early this morning. This feature is forecast to advance toward the middle MO Valley by late afternoon as 500mb, 60kt speed max translates across southeast NE into IA. Left exit region of this speed max will spread across the upper MS Valley along with a corridor of modest 12hr mid-level height falls. Latest model guidance suggests a weak surface low will develop and track along the MN/IA border into southwest WI by late evening. This corridor appears favorable for robust convective development as boundary layer warms and convective temperatures are breached, likely by midday, as readings warm through the upper 70s-80F. Forecast soundings exhibit veering wind profiles with height, and some supercell potential exists within this zone of focused ascent. Large hail and locally damaging winds are the primary concerns. Farther south, an expansive corridor of convection has evolved over the central Plains early this morning. Upscale growth may continue for the next few hours, and a long-lived MCS should propagate across eastern KS into MO by sunrise. While this complex may not be particularly severe at daybreak, a long-lived MCS, or its remnants, will advance downstream into the OH Valley as modest mid-level flow will extend along a corridor from MO into southern OH. Models are not too aggressive in steepening low-level lapse rates east of the MS River later today, but some surface heating is expected to contribute to increased buoyancy that will likely contribute to new robust updrafts developing along the MCS outflow/differential- heating zone. Will maintain MRGL risk across this region, although somewhat higher severe probabilities may be warranted, especially across KY along the southern flank of the forward-propagating MCS. Later in the day, very strong surface heating across the southern Plains will result in steep surface-3km lapse rates from northwest TX, across central into northeast OK. As the northern Plains trough shifts east, mid-level flow will begin to turn more westerly across northern OK, and 500mb speeds will increase to 25-40kt north of I-40. Convective temperatures will be breached by 22z, just ahead of the surface front, and scattered thunderstorms should easily develop along the wind shift. PWs will be very high across this region with values in excess of 2 inches. With temp/dew point spreads around 30F, there is increasing confidence that the most robust convection should generate severe downdrafts. A fairly concentrated corridor of convection should evolve downstream into the MO Ozarks by early evening. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 07/04/2024 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 040551
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Wed Jul 3 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southern Mexico (EP91):
A concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms is associated with
an area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south of the
southern coast of Mexico. While this activity continues to show
signs of organization, it is unclear if a well-defined center has
formed with the system. Environmental conditions appear conducive
for some additional development later today, and a short-lived
tropical depression could form during over the next day or so. By
Friday, the system is forecast to move over cooler waters and
development after that time is not expected. The disturbance is
forecast to move northward today and then turn northwestward by
Friday, remaining offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium....60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

WW 0504 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 504 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WSW HLC TO 50 SSW EAR TO 40 S HSI. ..GRAMS..07/04/24 ATTN...WFO...GID...OAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 504 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC141-147-163-183-040440- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE OSBORNE PHILLIPS ROOKS SMITH THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 504 SEVERE TSTM KS NE 032305Z - 040500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 504 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 605 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of North Central Kansas Central Nebraska * Effective this Wednesday night from 605 PM until Midnight CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A line of strong/severe storms over central Nebraska will track eastward through the evening, posing a risk of occasionally damaging wind gusts and hail. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles northeast of Oneill NE to 15 miles east southeast of Hill City KS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 501...WW 502...WW 503... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27030. ...Hart Read more

MD 1531 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 502...504... FOR NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL KS AND SOUTH-CENTRAL NE
Mesoscale Discussion 1531 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0855 PM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024 Areas affected...northwest/north-central KS and south-central NE Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 502...504... Valid 040155Z - 040330Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 502, 504 continues. SUMMARY...Strong to severe wind gusts of 50-70 mph along with marginal hail from 0.75-1.25 inches in diameter will remain possible over the next couple hours across parts of northwest to north-central Kansas and south-central Nebraska. An additional severe thunderstorm watch farther east appears unlikely. DISCUSSION...A recent uptick in the trailing portion of a predominately non-severe QLCS occurred in far southwest NE, yielding a measured severe gust of 55 kts at the McCook ASOS. This portion of the line appears likely to merge with a more north/south-oriented cluster over northwest KS which has produced a measured strong gust of 46 kts at the Colby AWOS. The thermodynamic environment immediately downstream is still favorable for occasional intensification during the next hour or so. But towards 04-05Z, the combination of increasing MLCIN and diminishing buoyancy with eastern extent suggests the severe wind threat should wane east of north-central KS. ..Grams.. 07/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD... LAT...LON 40360005 40449972 40649905 41269835 41479780 41249715 40559728 39469786 39159831 38829909 38820002 38870087 39570068 40360005 Read more

WW 0504 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 504 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE MCK TO 25 N GRI TO 30 W OFK TO 10 SW OFK. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1531. ..GRAMS..07/04/24 ATTN...WFO...GID...OAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 504 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC141-147-163-183-040340- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE OSBORNE PHILLIPS ROOKS SMITH NEC001-011-061-065-083-099-121-125-137-141-181-040340- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BOONE FRANKLIN FURNAS HARLAN KEARNEY MERRICK NANCE PHELPS PLATTE WEBSTER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES Read more

WW 0502 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 502 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW GCK TO 50 SE GLD TO 25 NE MCK. WW 502 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 040300Z. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1531. ..GRAMS..07/04/24 ATTN...WFO...PUB...GLD...DDC... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 502 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC039-063-065-101-137-171-179-040300- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DECATUR GOVE GRAHAM LANE NORTON SCOTT SHERIDAN THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0502 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 502 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW GCK TO 50 SE GLD TO 25 NE MCK. WW 502 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 040300Z. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1531. ..GRAMS..07/04/24 ATTN...WFO...PUB...GLD...DDC... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 502 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC039-063-065-101-137-171-179-040300- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DECATUR GOVE GRAHAM LANE NORTON SCOTT SHERIDAN THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 502 SEVERE TSTM CO KS NE 032130Z - 040300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 502 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 330 PM MDT Wed Jul 3 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern Colorado Western Kansas Southwest Nebraska * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 330 PM until 900 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms developing over eastern Colorado will spread eastward this evening into western Kansas. Locally damaging wind gusts are expected to be the main threat with these storms. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles west northwest of Mccook NE to 20 miles south of Springfield CO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 501... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27030. ...Hart Read more

WW 0504 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 504 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SE LBF TO 25 NW GRI TO 40 NE ONL. ..GRAMS..07/04/24 ATTN...WFO...GID...OAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 504 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC141-147-163-183-040240- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE OSBORNE PHILLIPS ROOKS SMITH NEC001-003-011-019-027-061-065-073-077-079-083-093-099-107-119- 121-125-137-139-141-167-179-181-040240- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS ANTELOPE BOONE BUFFALO CEDAR FRANKLIN FURNAS GOSPER GREELEY HALL HARLAN HOWARD KEARNEY KNOX MADISON MERRICK NANCE PHELPS PIERCE PLATTE STANTON WAYNE WEBSTER Read more

WW 0502 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 502 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E EHA TO 30 SW ITR TO 15 NNW MCK. ..GRAMS..07/04/24 ATTN...WFO...PUB...GLD...DDC... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 502 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC017-040240- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE KSC039-055-063-065-067-071-075-081-093-101-109-137-153-171-175- 179-181-189-193-199-203-040240- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DECATUR FINNEY GOVE GRAHAM GRANT GREELEY HAMILTON HASKELL KEARNY LANE LOGAN NORTON RAWLINS SCOTT SEWARD SHERIDAN SHERMAN STEVENS THOMAS WALLACE WICHITA NEC065-145-040240- Read more

MD 1530 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 501...502...504... FOR SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL NE...NORTHWEST KS...EAST-CENTRAL CO
Mesoscale Discussion 1530 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0653 PM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024 Areas affected...southwest/south-central NE...northwest KS...east-central CO Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 501...502...504... Valid 032353Z - 040130Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 501, 502, 504 continues. SUMMARY...Multiple swaths of severe hail and wind are expected to evolve east-southeastward across parts of southern Nebraska and northwest Kansas through sunset. This will include risks for significant severe hail to around 2.5 inches in diameter and wind gusts to around 80 mph, as well as a brief tornado or two. DISCUSSION...Multiple linear segments/clusters and embedded/discrete supercells are ongoing across parts of east-central CO into central NE. Moderate buoyancy persists ahead of this activity, with the peak axis along the CO/KS border into far southwest NE. Severe wind potential will probably be comparatively greater across northwest KS as the east-central CO spreads across this buoyancy plume, a scenario continuing to be advertised by recent WoFS guidance. This may yield gusts from 65-80 mph. Farther northeast, measured wind gusts have been generally strong owing to the slow-moving and backbuilding nature of the QLCS, especially with southwestward extent. Still, gusts from 50-65 mph will remain possible from southwest into central NE. ..Grams.. 07/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD... LAT...LON 40990058 41509952 41419840 40529865 39559969 38970093 38730308 39280310 39710231 40560180 40990058 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 PM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected this evening across parts of the northern/central High Plains. Isolated very large hail and significant severe wind gusts are possible in parts of the High Plains. ...01z Update... Early-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined short-wave trough over the northern Rockies which is quickly advancing into the High Plains. A substantial complex of storms has evolved ahead of this feature, and an MCS appears to be maturing over central NE. As this complex grows upscale, an MCV may evolve over the next few hours within the larger precip shield north of Broken Bow NE. Leading edge of this complex is surging east and this convection should continue propagating east as the LLJ begins to focus toward the MO Valley. Several other bands of robust convection have also developed across the central High Plains from portions of western KS into eastern CO. This activity, too, will propagate east-southeast this evening with an attendant threat for damaging winds, and perhaps some very large hail with any supercell structures. Although, much of this activity has evolved into a squall line, and damaging winds may become the primary risk. Overall, multiple clusters of organized convection will progress across the central Plains this evening toward the lower MO Valley after midnight. ..Darrow.. 07/04/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 PM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected this evening across parts of the northern/central High Plains. Isolated very large hail and significant severe wind gusts are possible in parts of the High Plains. ...01z Update... Early-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined short-wave trough over the northern Rockies which is quickly advancing into the High Plains. A substantial complex of storms has evolved ahead of this feature, and an MCS appears to be maturing over central NE. As this complex grows upscale, an MCV may evolve over the next few hours within the larger precip shield north of Broken Bow NE. Leading edge of this complex is surging east and this convection should continue propagating east as the LLJ begins to focus toward the MO Valley. Several other bands of robust convection have also developed across the central High Plains from portions of western KS into eastern CO. This activity, too, will propagate east-southeast this evening with an attendant threat for damaging winds, and perhaps some very large hail with any supercell structures. Although, much of this activity has evolved into a squall line, and damaging winds may become the primary risk. Overall, multiple clusters of organized convection will progress across the central Plains this evening toward the lower MO Valley after midnight. ..Darrow.. 07/04/2024 Read more