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Stage 2 of Lamesa’s Drought Contingency Plan took effect. Water use restrictions were intended to reduce demand and depend on one’s address. Some activities, such as refilling pools, wading pools and jacuzzies, may only be done on one’s designated watering day. KWES-TV NewsWest 9 (Odessa, Texas), July 3, 2024

MD 1521 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST MO...FAR SOUTHERN IL...FAR WESTERN KY...FAR NORTHEAST AR...EXTREME NORTHWEST TN
Mesoscale Discussion 1521 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 PM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024 Areas affected...South-Central/Southeast MO...Far Southern IL...Far Western KY...Far Northeast AR...Extreme Northwest TN Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 031845Z - 032045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon from the Ozark Plateau into the Lower OH Valley. Strong to severe storms capable of damaging gusts are possible, and convective trends will be monitored for potential watch issuance. DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery shows that the outflow associated with antecedent storms currently extends from about 40 miles east-southeast of TBN (in south-central MO) eastward to the MO/KY border vicinity. Southward progress of this boundary has slowed significantly over the past hour, with current indications suggesting that the western portion of this boundary has stalled. Strong heating and low-level moisture advection will likely result in this boundary becoming increasingly diffuse with time, although there is some potential it returns northward as an effective warm front (particularly the western end). Cumulus continues to deepen south of the outflow boundary, where temperatures are now in the low 90s and dewpoints are in the low to mid 70s. These warm and moist conditions are fostering an uncapped environment with moderate to strong buoyancy. Recent mesoanalysis estimates MLCAPE is around 2000 to 3000 J/kg. Vertical shear is modest, with 0-6 km bulk shear currently around 25 to 30 kt. This may increase somewhat as slightly stronger mid-level flow attendant to a subtle convectively augmented vorticity maximum moves into the region. Current expectation is for thunderstorm coverage to increase this afternoon, supported by both ascent attendant to the convectively augmented vorticity maximum moving through the central Plains and low-level convergence. Strong buoyancy will support robust updrafts, but the lack of stronger shear will likely limit organization, promoting a predominantly multicellular mode. Even so, scattered coverage of these strong updrafts and resulting potential for damaging gusts may require the need for a watch. ..Mosier/Gleason.. 07/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF... LAT...LON 36269294 37139249 37819035 37888841 37138809 36408864 35779189 36269294 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 PM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z The beginning of the forecast period on D3/Friday is characterized by overall amplification of ridging across the Pacific Northwest. An upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move southeast out of British Columbia into the Northwest US by D4/Saturday, moving into the Northern Great Basin by D5/Sunday. Guidance begins to diverge significantly heading into D6/Monday, but the overall consensus is that upper-level ridging will continue to build over the Western US. Conditions will be hot and dry beneath the ridge for a prolonged period, contributing to the continued curing of fuels. Medium-range guidance hints at the possibility of an upper-level shortwave trough approaching the Northern California coast on D5/D6, which could increase the potential for dry thunderstorm occurrence. However, there is significant disagreement in the timing, placement, and orientation of this upper-level feature. ...Pacific Northwest into the Northern Great Basin... As an upper-level trough descends from British Columbia into the Pacific Northwest on D4/Saturday, conditions beneath the jet streak are expected to be hot, dry, and windy over the Snake River Valley into portions of the Northern Great Basin. Elevated to near-critical conditions will be possible. However, the GFS and ECMWF forecasts differ in the intensity and orientation of the jet streak, resulting significant differences in the forecast surface winds between the two. Given the prolonged heat beneath the ridge, however, current thinking is to weight towards the drier, windier solution of the GFS. ...West Coast... Starting D5/Sunday into D6/Monday, GFS and ECMWF forecasts both hint at an upper-level shortwave trough interacting with the northern periphery of the ridge, though solutions differ greatly in the placement, orientation, and intensity of both the trough and ridge. While areas of Northern California into the Pacific Northwest will need monitoring for potential dry thunderstorm occurrence later in the period, forecast uncertainty is too great to introduce probabilities at this time. ..Halbert/Lyons.. 07/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 PM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z The beginning of the forecast period on D3/Friday is characterized by overall amplification of ridging across the Pacific Northwest. An upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move southeast out of British Columbia into the Northwest US by D4/Saturday, moving into the Northern Great Basin by D5/Sunday. Guidance begins to diverge significantly heading into D6/Monday, but the overall consensus is that upper-level ridging will continue to build over the Western US. Conditions will be hot and dry beneath the ridge for a prolonged period, contributing to the continued curing of fuels. Medium-range guidance hints at the possibility of an upper-level shortwave trough approaching the Northern California coast on D5/D6, which could increase the potential for dry thunderstorm occurrence. However, there is significant disagreement in the timing, placement, and orientation of this upper-level feature. ...Pacific Northwest into the Northern Great Basin... As an upper-level trough descends from British Columbia into the Pacific Northwest on D4/Saturday, conditions beneath the jet streak are expected to be hot, dry, and windy over the Snake River Valley into portions of the Northern Great Basin. Elevated to near-critical conditions will be possible. However, the GFS and ECMWF forecasts differ in the intensity and orientation of the jet streak, resulting significant differences in the forecast surface winds between the two. Given the prolonged heat beneath the ridge, however, current thinking is to weight towards the drier, windier solution of the GFS. ...West Coast... Starting D5/Sunday into D6/Monday, GFS and ECMWF forecasts both hint at an upper-level shortwave trough interacting with the northern periphery of the ridge, though solutions differ greatly in the placement, orientation, and intensity of both the trough and ridge. While areas of Northern California into the Pacific Northwest will need monitoring for potential dry thunderstorm occurrence later in the period, forecast uncertainty is too great to introduce probabilities at this time. ..Halbert/Lyons.. 07/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 PM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z The beginning of the forecast period on D3/Friday is characterized by overall amplification of ridging across the Pacific Northwest. An upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move southeast out of British Columbia into the Northwest US by D4/Saturday, moving into the Northern Great Basin by D5/Sunday. Guidance begins to diverge significantly heading into D6/Monday, but the overall consensus is that upper-level ridging will continue to build over the Western US. Conditions will be hot and dry beneath the ridge for a prolonged period, contributing to the continued curing of fuels. Medium-range guidance hints at the possibility of an upper-level shortwave trough approaching the Northern California coast on D5/D6, which could increase the potential for dry thunderstorm occurrence. However, there is significant disagreement in the timing, placement, and orientation of this upper-level feature. ...Pacific Northwest into the Northern Great Basin... As an upper-level trough descends from British Columbia into the Pacific Northwest on D4/Saturday, conditions beneath the jet streak are expected to be hot, dry, and windy over the Snake River Valley into portions of the Northern Great Basin. Elevated to near-critical conditions will be possible. However, the GFS and ECMWF forecasts differ in the intensity and orientation of the jet streak, resulting significant differences in the forecast surface winds between the two. Given the prolonged heat beneath the ridge, however, current thinking is to weight towards the drier, windier solution of the GFS. ...West Coast... Starting D5/Sunday into D6/Monday, GFS and ECMWF forecasts both hint at an upper-level shortwave trough interacting with the northern periphery of the ridge, though solutions differ greatly in the placement, orientation, and intensity of both the trough and ridge. While areas of Northern California into the Pacific Northwest will need monitoring for potential dry thunderstorm occurrence later in the period, forecast uncertainty is too great to introduce probabilities at this time. ..Halbert/Lyons.. 07/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 PM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z The beginning of the forecast period on D3/Friday is characterized by overall amplification of ridging across the Pacific Northwest. An upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move southeast out of British Columbia into the Northwest US by D4/Saturday, moving into the Northern Great Basin by D5/Sunday. Guidance begins to diverge significantly heading into D6/Monday, but the overall consensus is that upper-level ridging will continue to build over the Western US. Conditions will be hot and dry beneath the ridge for a prolonged period, contributing to the continued curing of fuels. Medium-range guidance hints at the possibility of an upper-level shortwave trough approaching the Northern California coast on D5/D6, which could increase the potential for dry thunderstorm occurrence. However, there is significant disagreement in the timing, placement, and orientation of this upper-level feature. ...Pacific Northwest into the Northern Great Basin... As an upper-level trough descends from British Columbia into the Pacific Northwest on D4/Saturday, conditions beneath the jet streak are expected to be hot, dry, and windy over the Snake River Valley into portions of the Northern Great Basin. Elevated to near-critical conditions will be possible. However, the GFS and ECMWF forecasts differ in the intensity and orientation of the jet streak, resulting significant differences in the forecast surface winds between the two. Given the prolonged heat beneath the ridge, however, current thinking is to weight towards the drier, windier solution of the GFS. ...West Coast... Starting D5/Sunday into D6/Monday, GFS and ECMWF forecasts both hint at an upper-level shortwave trough interacting with the northern periphery of the ridge, though solutions differ greatly in the placement, orientation, and intensity of both the trough and ridge. While areas of Northern California into the Pacific Northwest will need monitoring for potential dry thunderstorm occurrence later in the period, forecast uncertainty is too great to introduce probabilities at this time. ..Halbert/Lyons.. 07/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 PM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z The beginning of the forecast period on D3/Friday is characterized by overall amplification of ridging across the Pacific Northwest. An upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move southeast out of British Columbia into the Northwest US by D4/Saturday, moving into the Northern Great Basin by D5/Sunday. Guidance begins to diverge significantly heading into D6/Monday, but the overall consensus is that upper-level ridging will continue to build over the Western US. Conditions will be hot and dry beneath the ridge for a prolonged period, contributing to the continued curing of fuels. Medium-range guidance hints at the possibility of an upper-level shortwave trough approaching the Northern California coast on D5/D6, which could increase the potential for dry thunderstorm occurrence. However, there is significant disagreement in the timing, placement, and orientation of this upper-level feature. ...Pacific Northwest into the Northern Great Basin... As an upper-level trough descends from British Columbia into the Pacific Northwest on D4/Saturday, conditions beneath the jet streak are expected to be hot, dry, and windy over the Snake River Valley into portions of the Northern Great Basin. Elevated to near-critical conditions will be possible. However, the GFS and ECMWF forecasts differ in the intensity and orientation of the jet streak, resulting significant differences in the forecast surface winds between the two. Given the prolonged heat beneath the ridge, however, current thinking is to weight towards the drier, windier solution of the GFS. ...West Coast... Starting D5/Sunday into D6/Monday, GFS and ECMWF forecasts both hint at an upper-level shortwave trough interacting with the northern periphery of the ridge, though solutions differ greatly in the placement, orientation, and intensity of both the trough and ridge. While areas of Northern California into the Pacific Northwest will need monitoring for potential dry thunderstorm occurrence later in the period, forecast uncertainty is too great to introduce probabilities at this time. ..Halbert/Lyons.. 07/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 PM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z The beginning of the forecast period on D3/Friday is characterized by overall amplification of ridging across the Pacific Northwest. An upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move southeast out of British Columbia into the Northwest US by D4/Saturday, moving into the Northern Great Basin by D5/Sunday. Guidance begins to diverge significantly heading into D6/Monday, but the overall consensus is that upper-level ridging will continue to build over the Western US. Conditions will be hot and dry beneath the ridge for a prolonged period, contributing to the continued curing of fuels. Medium-range guidance hints at the possibility of an upper-level shortwave trough approaching the Northern California coast on D5/D6, which could increase the potential for dry thunderstorm occurrence. However, there is significant disagreement in the timing, placement, and orientation of this upper-level feature. ...Pacific Northwest into the Northern Great Basin... As an upper-level trough descends from British Columbia into the Pacific Northwest on D4/Saturday, conditions beneath the jet streak are expected to be hot, dry, and windy over the Snake River Valley into portions of the Northern Great Basin. Elevated to near-critical conditions will be possible. However, the GFS and ECMWF forecasts differ in the intensity and orientation of the jet streak, resulting significant differences in the forecast surface winds between the two. Given the prolonged heat beneath the ridge, however, current thinking is to weight towards the drier, windier solution of the GFS. ...West Coast... Starting D5/Sunday into D6/Monday, GFS and ECMWF forecasts both hint at an upper-level shortwave trough interacting with the northern periphery of the ridge, though solutions differ greatly in the placement, orientation, and intensity of both the trough and ridge. While areas of Northern California into the Pacific Northwest will need monitoring for potential dry thunderstorm occurrence later in the period, forecast uncertainty is too great to introduce probabilities at this time. ..Halbert/Lyons.. 07/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 PM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z The beginning of the forecast period on D3/Friday is characterized by overall amplification of ridging across the Pacific Northwest. An upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move southeast out of British Columbia into the Northwest US by D4/Saturday, moving into the Northern Great Basin by D5/Sunday. Guidance begins to diverge significantly heading into D6/Monday, but the overall consensus is that upper-level ridging will continue to build over the Western US. Conditions will be hot and dry beneath the ridge for a prolonged period, contributing to the continued curing of fuels. Medium-range guidance hints at the possibility of an upper-level shortwave trough approaching the Northern California coast on D5/D6, which could increase the potential for dry thunderstorm occurrence. However, there is significant disagreement in the timing, placement, and orientation of this upper-level feature. ...Pacific Northwest into the Northern Great Basin... As an upper-level trough descends from British Columbia into the Pacific Northwest on D4/Saturday, conditions beneath the jet streak are expected to be hot, dry, and windy over the Snake River Valley into portions of the Northern Great Basin. Elevated to near-critical conditions will be possible. However, the GFS and ECMWF forecasts differ in the intensity and orientation of the jet streak, resulting significant differences in the forecast surface winds between the two. Given the prolonged heat beneath the ridge, however, current thinking is to weight towards the drier, windier solution of the GFS. ...West Coast... Starting D5/Sunday into D6/Monday, GFS and ECMWF forecasts both hint at an upper-level shortwave trough interacting with the northern periphery of the ridge, though solutions differ greatly in the placement, orientation, and intensity of both the trough and ridge. While areas of Northern California into the Pacific Northwest will need monitoring for potential dry thunderstorm occurrence later in the period, forecast uncertainty is too great to introduce probabilities at this time. ..Halbert/Lyons.. 07/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 PM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z The beginning of the forecast period on D3/Friday is characterized by overall amplification of ridging across the Pacific Northwest. An upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move southeast out of British Columbia into the Northwest US by D4/Saturday, moving into the Northern Great Basin by D5/Sunday. Guidance begins to diverge significantly heading into D6/Monday, but the overall consensus is that upper-level ridging will continue to build over the Western US. Conditions will be hot and dry beneath the ridge for a prolonged period, contributing to the continued curing of fuels. Medium-range guidance hints at the possibility of an upper-level shortwave trough approaching the Northern California coast on D5/D6, which could increase the potential for dry thunderstorm occurrence. However, there is significant disagreement in the timing, placement, and orientation of this upper-level feature. ...Pacific Northwest into the Northern Great Basin... As an upper-level trough descends from British Columbia into the Pacific Northwest on D4/Saturday, conditions beneath the jet streak are expected to be hot, dry, and windy over the Snake River Valley into portions of the Northern Great Basin. Elevated to near-critical conditions will be possible. However, the GFS and ECMWF forecasts differ in the intensity and orientation of the jet streak, resulting significant differences in the forecast surface winds between the two. Given the prolonged heat beneath the ridge, however, current thinking is to weight towards the drier, windier solution of the GFS. ...West Coast... Starting D5/Sunday into D6/Monday, GFS and ECMWF forecasts both hint at an upper-level shortwave trough interacting with the northern periphery of the ridge, though solutions differ greatly in the placement, orientation, and intensity of both the trough and ridge. While areas of Northern California into the Pacific Northwest will need monitoring for potential dry thunderstorm occurrence later in the period, forecast uncertainty is too great to introduce probabilities at this time. ..Halbert/Lyons.. 07/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 PM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z The beginning of the forecast period on D3/Friday is characterized by overall amplification of ridging across the Pacific Northwest. An upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move southeast out of British Columbia into the Northwest US by D4/Saturday, moving into the Northern Great Basin by D5/Sunday. Guidance begins to diverge significantly heading into D6/Monday, but the overall consensus is that upper-level ridging will continue to build over the Western US. Conditions will be hot and dry beneath the ridge for a prolonged period, contributing to the continued curing of fuels. Medium-range guidance hints at the possibility of an upper-level shortwave trough approaching the Northern California coast on D5/D6, which could increase the potential for dry thunderstorm occurrence. However, there is significant disagreement in the timing, placement, and orientation of this upper-level feature. ...Pacific Northwest into the Northern Great Basin... As an upper-level trough descends from British Columbia into the Pacific Northwest on D4/Saturday, conditions beneath the jet streak are expected to be hot, dry, and windy over the Snake River Valley into portions of the Northern Great Basin. Elevated to near-critical conditions will be possible. However, the GFS and ECMWF forecasts differ in the intensity and orientation of the jet streak, resulting significant differences in the forecast surface winds between the two. Given the prolonged heat beneath the ridge, however, current thinking is to weight towards the drier, windier solution of the GFS. ...West Coast... Starting D5/Sunday into D6/Monday, GFS and ECMWF forecasts both hint at an upper-level shortwave trough interacting with the northern periphery of the ridge, though solutions differ greatly in the placement, orientation, and intensity of both the trough and ridge. While areas of Northern California into the Pacific Northwest will need monitoring for potential dry thunderstorm occurrence later in the period, forecast uncertainty is too great to introduce probabilities at this time. ..Halbert/Lyons.. 07/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 PM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z The beginning of the forecast period on D3/Friday is characterized by overall amplification of ridging across the Pacific Northwest. An upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move southeast out of British Columbia into the Northwest US by D4/Saturday, moving into the Northern Great Basin by D5/Sunday. Guidance begins to diverge significantly heading into D6/Monday, but the overall consensus is that upper-level ridging will continue to build over the Western US. Conditions will be hot and dry beneath the ridge for a prolonged period, contributing to the continued curing of fuels. Medium-range guidance hints at the possibility of an upper-level shortwave trough approaching the Northern California coast on D5/D6, which could increase the potential for dry thunderstorm occurrence. However, there is significant disagreement in the timing, placement, and orientation of this upper-level feature. ...Pacific Northwest into the Northern Great Basin... As an upper-level trough descends from British Columbia into the Pacific Northwest on D4/Saturday, conditions beneath the jet streak are expected to be hot, dry, and windy over the Snake River Valley into portions of the Northern Great Basin. Elevated to near-critical conditions will be possible. However, the GFS and ECMWF forecasts differ in the intensity and orientation of the jet streak, resulting significant differences in the forecast surface winds between the two. Given the prolonged heat beneath the ridge, however, current thinking is to weight towards the drier, windier solution of the GFS. ...West Coast... Starting D5/Sunday into D6/Monday, GFS and ECMWF forecasts both hint at an upper-level shortwave trough interacting with the northern periphery of the ridge, though solutions differ greatly in the placement, orientation, and intensity of both the trough and ridge. While areas of Northern California into the Pacific Northwest will need monitoring for potential dry thunderstorm occurrence later in the period, forecast uncertainty is too great to introduce probabilities at this time. ..Halbert/Lyons.. 07/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 PM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z The beginning of the forecast period on D3/Friday is characterized by overall amplification of ridging across the Pacific Northwest. An upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move southeast out of British Columbia into the Northwest US by D4/Saturday, moving into the Northern Great Basin by D5/Sunday. Guidance begins to diverge significantly heading into D6/Monday, but the overall consensus is that upper-level ridging will continue to build over the Western US. Conditions will be hot and dry beneath the ridge for a prolonged period, contributing to the continued curing of fuels. Medium-range guidance hints at the possibility of an upper-level shortwave trough approaching the Northern California coast on D5/D6, which could increase the potential for dry thunderstorm occurrence. However, there is significant disagreement in the timing, placement, and orientation of this upper-level feature. ...Pacific Northwest into the Northern Great Basin... As an upper-level trough descends from British Columbia into the Pacific Northwest on D4/Saturday, conditions beneath the jet streak are expected to be hot, dry, and windy over the Snake River Valley into portions of the Northern Great Basin. Elevated to near-critical conditions will be possible. However, the GFS and ECMWF forecasts differ in the intensity and orientation of the jet streak, resulting significant differences in the forecast surface winds between the two. Given the prolonged heat beneath the ridge, however, current thinking is to weight towards the drier, windier solution of the GFS. ...West Coast... Starting D5/Sunday into D6/Monday, GFS and ECMWF forecasts both hint at an upper-level shortwave trough interacting with the northern periphery of the ridge, though solutions differ greatly in the placement, orientation, and intensity of both the trough and ridge. While areas of Northern California into the Pacific Northwest will need monitoring for potential dry thunderstorm occurrence later in the period, forecast uncertainty is too great to introduce probabilities at this time. ..Halbert/Lyons.. 07/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 PM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z The beginning of the forecast period on D3/Friday is characterized by overall amplification of ridging across the Pacific Northwest. An upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move southeast out of British Columbia into the Northwest US by D4/Saturday, moving into the Northern Great Basin by D5/Sunday. Guidance begins to diverge significantly heading into D6/Monday, but the overall consensus is that upper-level ridging will continue to build over the Western US. Conditions will be hot and dry beneath the ridge for a prolonged period, contributing to the continued curing of fuels. Medium-range guidance hints at the possibility of an upper-level shortwave trough approaching the Northern California coast on D5/D6, which could increase the potential for dry thunderstorm occurrence. However, there is significant disagreement in the timing, placement, and orientation of this upper-level feature. ...Pacific Northwest into the Northern Great Basin... As an upper-level trough descends from British Columbia into the Pacific Northwest on D4/Saturday, conditions beneath the jet streak are expected to be hot, dry, and windy over the Snake River Valley into portions of the Northern Great Basin. Elevated to near-critical conditions will be possible. However, the GFS and ECMWF forecasts differ in the intensity and orientation of the jet streak, resulting significant differences in the forecast surface winds between the two. Given the prolonged heat beneath the ridge, however, current thinking is to weight towards the drier, windier solution of the GFS. ...West Coast... Starting D5/Sunday into D6/Monday, GFS and ECMWF forecasts both hint at an upper-level shortwave trough interacting with the northern periphery of the ridge, though solutions differ greatly in the placement, orientation, and intensity of both the trough and ridge. While areas of Northern California into the Pacific Northwest will need monitoring for potential dry thunderstorm occurrence later in the period, forecast uncertainty is too great to introduce probabilities at this time. ..Halbert/Lyons.. 07/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 PM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z The beginning of the forecast period on D3/Friday is characterized by overall amplification of ridging across the Pacific Northwest. An upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move southeast out of British Columbia into the Northwest US by D4/Saturday, moving into the Northern Great Basin by D5/Sunday. Guidance begins to diverge significantly heading into D6/Monday, but the overall consensus is that upper-level ridging will continue to build over the Western US. Conditions will be hot and dry beneath the ridge for a prolonged period, contributing to the continued curing of fuels. Medium-range guidance hints at the possibility of an upper-level shortwave trough approaching the Northern California coast on D5/D6, which could increase the potential for dry thunderstorm occurrence. However, there is significant disagreement in the timing, placement, and orientation of this upper-level feature. ...Pacific Northwest into the Northern Great Basin... As an upper-level trough descends from British Columbia into the Pacific Northwest on D4/Saturday, conditions beneath the jet streak are expected to be hot, dry, and windy over the Snake River Valley into portions of the Northern Great Basin. Elevated to near-critical conditions will be possible. However, the GFS and ECMWF forecasts differ in the intensity and orientation of the jet streak, resulting significant differences in the forecast surface winds between the two. Given the prolonged heat beneath the ridge, however, current thinking is to weight towards the drier, windier solution of the GFS. ...West Coast... Starting D5/Sunday into D6/Monday, GFS and ECMWF forecasts both hint at an upper-level shortwave trough interacting with the northern periphery of the ridge, though solutions differ greatly in the placement, orientation, and intensity of both the trough and ridge. While areas of Northern California into the Pacific Northwest will need monitoring for potential dry thunderstorm occurrence later in the period, forecast uncertainty is too great to introduce probabilities at this time. ..Halbert/Lyons.. 07/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 PM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z The beginning of the forecast period on D3/Friday is characterized by overall amplification of ridging across the Pacific Northwest. An upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move southeast out of British Columbia into the Northwest US by D4/Saturday, moving into the Northern Great Basin by D5/Sunday. Guidance begins to diverge significantly heading into D6/Monday, but the overall consensus is that upper-level ridging will continue to build over the Western US. Conditions will be hot and dry beneath the ridge for a prolonged period, contributing to the continued curing of fuels. Medium-range guidance hints at the possibility of an upper-level shortwave trough approaching the Northern California coast on D5/D6, which could increase the potential for dry thunderstorm occurrence. However, there is significant disagreement in the timing, placement, and orientation of this upper-level feature. ...Pacific Northwest into the Northern Great Basin... As an upper-level trough descends from British Columbia into the Pacific Northwest on D4/Saturday, conditions beneath the jet streak are expected to be hot, dry, and windy over the Snake River Valley into portions of the Northern Great Basin. Elevated to near-critical conditions will be possible. However, the GFS and ECMWF forecasts differ in the intensity and orientation of the jet streak, resulting significant differences in the forecast surface winds between the two. Given the prolonged heat beneath the ridge, however, current thinking is to weight towards the drier, windier solution of the GFS. ...West Coast... Starting D5/Sunday into D6/Monday, GFS and ECMWF forecasts both hint at an upper-level shortwave trough interacting with the northern periphery of the ridge, though solutions differ greatly in the placement, orientation, and intensity of both the trough and ridge. While areas of Northern California into the Pacific Northwest will need monitoring for potential dry thunderstorm occurrence later in the period, forecast uncertainty is too great to introduce probabilities at this time. ..Halbert/Lyons.. 07/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 PM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z The beginning of the forecast period on D3/Friday is characterized by overall amplification of ridging across the Pacific Northwest. An upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move southeast out of British Columbia into the Northwest US by D4/Saturday, moving into the Northern Great Basin by D5/Sunday. Guidance begins to diverge significantly heading into D6/Monday, but the overall consensus is that upper-level ridging will continue to build over the Western US. Conditions will be hot and dry beneath the ridge for a prolonged period, contributing to the continued curing of fuels. Medium-range guidance hints at the possibility of an upper-level shortwave trough approaching the Northern California coast on D5/D6, which could increase the potential for dry thunderstorm occurrence. However, there is significant disagreement in the timing, placement, and orientation of this upper-level feature. ...Pacific Northwest into the Northern Great Basin... As an upper-level trough descends from British Columbia into the Pacific Northwest on D4/Saturday, conditions beneath the jet streak are expected to be hot, dry, and windy over the Snake River Valley into portions of the Northern Great Basin. Elevated to near-critical conditions will be possible. However, the GFS and ECMWF forecasts differ in the intensity and orientation of the jet streak, resulting significant differences in the forecast surface winds between the two. Given the prolonged heat beneath the ridge, however, current thinking is to weight towards the drier, windier solution of the GFS. ...West Coast... Starting D5/Sunday into D6/Monday, GFS and ECMWF forecasts both hint at an upper-level shortwave trough interacting with the northern periphery of the ridge, though solutions differ greatly in the placement, orientation, and intensity of both the trough and ridge. While areas of Northern California into the Pacific Northwest will need monitoring for potential dry thunderstorm occurrence later in the period, forecast uncertainty is too great to introduce probabilities at this time. ..Halbert/Lyons.. 07/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 PM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z The beginning of the forecast period on D3/Friday is characterized by overall amplification of ridging across the Pacific Northwest. An upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move southeast out of British Columbia into the Northwest US by D4/Saturday, moving into the Northern Great Basin by D5/Sunday. Guidance begins to diverge significantly heading into D6/Monday, but the overall consensus is that upper-level ridging will continue to build over the Western US. Conditions will be hot and dry beneath the ridge for a prolonged period, contributing to the continued curing of fuels. Medium-range guidance hints at the possibility of an upper-level shortwave trough approaching the Northern California coast on D5/D6, which could increase the potential for dry thunderstorm occurrence. However, there is significant disagreement in the timing, placement, and orientation of this upper-level feature. ...Pacific Northwest into the Northern Great Basin... As an upper-level trough descends from British Columbia into the Pacific Northwest on D4/Saturday, conditions beneath the jet streak are expected to be hot, dry, and windy over the Snake River Valley into portions of the Northern Great Basin. Elevated to near-critical conditions will be possible. However, the GFS and ECMWF forecasts differ in the intensity and orientation of the jet streak, resulting significant differences in the forecast surface winds between the two. Given the prolonged heat beneath the ridge, however, current thinking is to weight towards the drier, windier solution of the GFS. ...West Coast... Starting D5/Sunday into D6/Monday, GFS and ECMWF forecasts both hint at an upper-level shortwave trough interacting with the northern periphery of the ridge, though solutions differ greatly in the placement, orientation, and intensity of both the trough and ridge. While areas of Northern California into the Pacific Northwest will need monitoring for potential dry thunderstorm occurrence later in the period, forecast uncertainty is too great to introduce probabilities at this time. ..Halbert/Lyons.. 07/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 PM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z The beginning of the forecast period on D3/Friday is characterized by overall amplification of ridging across the Pacific Northwest. An upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move southeast out of British Columbia into the Northwest US by D4/Saturday, moving into the Northern Great Basin by D5/Sunday. Guidance begins to diverge significantly heading into D6/Monday, but the overall consensus is that upper-level ridging will continue to build over the Western US. Conditions will be hot and dry beneath the ridge for a prolonged period, contributing to the continued curing of fuels. Medium-range guidance hints at the possibility of an upper-level shortwave trough approaching the Northern California coast on D5/D6, which could increase the potential for dry thunderstorm occurrence. However, there is significant disagreement in the timing, placement, and orientation of this upper-level feature. ...Pacific Northwest into the Northern Great Basin... As an upper-level trough descends from British Columbia into the Pacific Northwest on D4/Saturday, conditions beneath the jet streak are expected to be hot, dry, and windy over the Snake River Valley into portions of the Northern Great Basin. Elevated to near-critical conditions will be possible. However, the GFS and ECMWF forecasts differ in the intensity and orientation of the jet streak, resulting significant differences in the forecast surface winds between the two. Given the prolonged heat beneath the ridge, however, current thinking is to weight towards the drier, windier solution of the GFS. ...West Coast... Starting D5/Sunday into D6/Monday, GFS and ECMWF forecasts both hint at an upper-level shortwave trough interacting with the northern periphery of the ridge, though solutions differ greatly in the placement, orientation, and intensity of both the trough and ridge. While areas of Northern California into the Pacific Northwest will need monitoring for potential dry thunderstorm occurrence later in the period, forecast uncertainty is too great to introduce probabilities at this time. ..Halbert/Lyons.. 07/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

The City of Statesville implemented a voluntary lawn and landscape irrigation schedule to help manage water use in accordance with the City Code and the Water Shortage Response Plan. Iredell Free News (Statesville, N.C.), July 3, 2024