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WW 0501 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 501 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..THORNTON..07/03/24 ATTN...WFO...BOU...LBF...CYS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 501 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC075-095-115-032140- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LOGAN PHILLIPS SEDGWICK NEC005-009-013-017-029-031-033-041-049-063-069-075-085-091-101- 103-105-111-113-115-117-123-135-149-161-171-032140- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARTHUR BLAINE BOX BUTTE BROWN CHASE CHERRY CHEYENNE CUSTER DEUEL FRONTIER GARDEN GRANT HAYES HOOKER KEITH KEYA PAHA KIMBALL LINCOLN LOGAN LOUP MCPHERSON MORRILL PERKINS ROCK SHERIDAN THOMAS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...AND THE OZARKS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms appear possible through evening across parts of the northern/central High Plains, and from the Ozarks into the Ohio Valley. The most favorable corridor for isolated very large hail and significant severe wind gusts is centered on the central High Plains. ...20z Update... Severe probabilities remain unchanged from the previous outlook. Severe storms are possible into this evening from portions of the central High Plains to the Ozarks and lower Ohio Valley. See Severe Thunderstorm Watch 501 and MCD 1520 regarding short term discussions on severe potential in the central High Plains, MCD 1522 for the northern High Plains, and MCD 1521 for the Ozarks vicinity. ..Leitman.. 07/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper trough will continue moving eastward across Ontario and the Great Lakes today, while an upper high remains centered over the Southeast. Farther west, a separate mid-level shortwave trough will advance east-southeastward from the northern Rockies to the northern/central High Plains through tonight. Multiple convectively augmented mid-level vorticity maxima will move generally east-northeastward across the central Plains into the mid MS and OH Valleys. At the surface, a cold front extends from the OH Valley southwestward to the southern Plains. Weak lee cyclogenesis is forecast to occur across the central High Plains through late this afternoon, and modest low-level moisture return is anticipated to the north of the front and east of a weak surface lee trough across parts of the northern/central Plains. ...Northern/Central Plains... Morning clouds and lingering convection across parts of the central Plains will hamper the development of instability today, especially with eastward extent into NE/KS. Even so, pockets of filtered daytime heating will occur across the northern/central High Plains along and east of the surface lee trough. With steepened mid-level lapse rates present over eastern CO/WY into western SD/NE, a narrow zone of moderate instability is forecast to be in place prior to robust convective initiation this afternoon. Initial development should occur along the length of the lee trough from parts of western NE into eastern CO. A somewhat separate area of convection may also develop from northeastern WY to the Black Hills, as large-scale ascent preceding the mid-level shortwave trough overspreads this region. Modest low-level east-southeasterly flow will quickly veer to westerly at mid/upper levels, with some strengthening and hodograph elongation. Corresponding strong deep-layer shear will support supercells initially, with attendant threat for large hail. Given relatively cool temperatures aloft and the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates, isolated very large hail greater than 2 inches in diameter appears possible. A small zone with favorable overlap of moderate instability, strong deep-layer shear, and sufficient low-level shear remains apparent over parts of the NE Panhandle into northwest NE. This area may have a locally greater threat for a couple of tornadoes with any supercells that can persist late this afternoon into the early evening, assuming the boundary layer does not become too well mixed. Otherwise, upscale growth/clustering appears probable this evening as convective outflows aggregate into the central Plains. Severe/damaging winds should become the main threat as this occurs, with isolated significant gusts up to 75 mph possible if a more consolidated bow/MCS can develop. Confidence in this occurring still remains somewhat low, but the best chance for a more concentrated corridor of severe winds remains across parts of eastern CO into southwest NE and northwest KS this evening. ...Ozarks to the Ohio Valley... A rather moist low-level airmass remains present along/south of the front today, with surface dewpoints generally in the low to mid 70s, and precipitable water values around 1.75-2.2 inches. A fair amount of convective cloud debris is present along/near the front across the mid MS Valley. This will tend to slow diurnal destabilization to some extent across this area. Mid-level lapse rates are also expected to remain poor. Still, moderate to locally strong instability and steepened low-level lapse rates are forecast to develop through peak afternoon heating along/south of the front, which will extend from the Ozarks northeastward into parts of the OH Valley. Low-level winds are expected to remain generally weak, but a modest increase in southwesterly winds at mid levels should foster sufficient deep-layer shear to support some updraft organization. Mainly multicell clusters should develop this afternoon, focused along the front. Some of this activity may produce scattered damaging winds through early evening before eventually weakening. Morning guidance shows a greater concentration of thunderstorms with clustering potential across the Ozarks into the mid MS Valley. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...AND THE OZARKS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms appear possible through evening across parts of the northern/central High Plains, and from the Ozarks into the Ohio Valley. The most favorable corridor for isolated very large hail and significant severe wind gusts is centered on the central High Plains. ...20z Update... Severe probabilities remain unchanged from the previous outlook. Severe storms are possible into this evening from portions of the central High Plains to the Ozarks and lower Ohio Valley. See Severe Thunderstorm Watch 501 and MCD 1520 regarding short term discussions on severe potential in the central High Plains, MCD 1522 for the northern High Plains, and MCD 1521 for the Ozarks vicinity. ..Leitman.. 07/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper trough will continue moving eastward across Ontario and the Great Lakes today, while an upper high remains centered over the Southeast. Farther west, a separate mid-level shortwave trough will advance east-southeastward from the northern Rockies to the northern/central High Plains through tonight. Multiple convectively augmented mid-level vorticity maxima will move generally east-northeastward across the central Plains into the mid MS and OH Valleys. At the surface, a cold front extends from the OH Valley southwestward to the southern Plains. Weak lee cyclogenesis is forecast to occur across the central High Plains through late this afternoon, and modest low-level moisture return is anticipated to the north of the front and east of a weak surface lee trough across parts of the northern/central Plains. ...Northern/Central Plains... Morning clouds and lingering convection across parts of the central Plains will hamper the development of instability today, especially with eastward extent into NE/KS. Even so, pockets of filtered daytime heating will occur across the northern/central High Plains along and east of the surface lee trough. With steepened mid-level lapse rates present over eastern CO/WY into western SD/NE, a narrow zone of moderate instability is forecast to be in place prior to robust convective initiation this afternoon. Initial development should occur along the length of the lee trough from parts of western NE into eastern CO. A somewhat separate area of convection may also develop from northeastern WY to the Black Hills, as large-scale ascent preceding the mid-level shortwave trough overspreads this region. Modest low-level east-southeasterly flow will quickly veer to westerly at mid/upper levels, with some strengthening and hodograph elongation. Corresponding strong deep-layer shear will support supercells initially, with attendant threat for large hail. Given relatively cool temperatures aloft and the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates, isolated very large hail greater than 2 inches in diameter appears possible. A small zone with favorable overlap of moderate instability, strong deep-layer shear, and sufficient low-level shear remains apparent over parts of the NE Panhandle into northwest NE. This area may have a locally greater threat for a couple of tornadoes with any supercells that can persist late this afternoon into the early evening, assuming the boundary layer does not become too well mixed. Otherwise, upscale growth/clustering appears probable this evening as convective outflows aggregate into the central Plains. Severe/damaging winds should become the main threat as this occurs, with isolated significant gusts up to 75 mph possible if a more consolidated bow/MCS can develop. Confidence in this occurring still remains somewhat low, but the best chance for a more concentrated corridor of severe winds remains across parts of eastern CO into southwest NE and northwest KS this evening. ...Ozarks to the Ohio Valley... A rather moist low-level airmass remains present along/south of the front today, with surface dewpoints generally in the low to mid 70s, and precipitable water values around 1.75-2.2 inches. A fair amount of convective cloud debris is present along/near the front across the mid MS Valley. This will tend to slow diurnal destabilization to some extent across this area. Mid-level lapse rates are also expected to remain poor. Still, moderate to locally strong instability and steepened low-level lapse rates are forecast to develop through peak afternoon heating along/south of the front, which will extend from the Ozarks northeastward into parts of the OH Valley. Low-level winds are expected to remain generally weak, but a modest increase in southwesterly winds at mid levels should foster sufficient deep-layer shear to support some updraft organization. Mainly multicell clusters should develop this afternoon, focused along the front. Some of this activity may produce scattered damaging winds through early evening before eventually weakening. Morning guidance shows a greater concentration of thunderstorms with clustering potential across the Ozarks into the mid MS Valley. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...AND THE OZARKS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms appear possible through evening across parts of the northern/central High Plains, and from the Ozarks into the Ohio Valley. The most favorable corridor for isolated very large hail and significant severe wind gusts is centered on the central High Plains. ...20z Update... Severe probabilities remain unchanged from the previous outlook. Severe storms are possible into this evening from portions of the central High Plains to the Ozarks and lower Ohio Valley. See Severe Thunderstorm Watch 501 and MCD 1520 regarding short term discussions on severe potential in the central High Plains, MCD 1522 for the northern High Plains, and MCD 1521 for the Ozarks vicinity. ..Leitman.. 07/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper trough will continue moving eastward across Ontario and the Great Lakes today, while an upper high remains centered over the Southeast. Farther west, a separate mid-level shortwave trough will advance east-southeastward from the northern Rockies to the northern/central High Plains through tonight. Multiple convectively augmented mid-level vorticity maxima will move generally east-northeastward across the central Plains into the mid MS and OH Valleys. At the surface, a cold front extends from the OH Valley southwestward to the southern Plains. Weak lee cyclogenesis is forecast to occur across the central High Plains through late this afternoon, and modest low-level moisture return is anticipated to the north of the front and east of a weak surface lee trough across parts of the northern/central Plains. ...Northern/Central Plains... Morning clouds and lingering convection across parts of the central Plains will hamper the development of instability today, especially with eastward extent into NE/KS. Even so, pockets of filtered daytime heating will occur across the northern/central High Plains along and east of the surface lee trough. With steepened mid-level lapse rates present over eastern CO/WY into western SD/NE, a narrow zone of moderate instability is forecast to be in place prior to robust convective initiation this afternoon. Initial development should occur along the length of the lee trough from parts of western NE into eastern CO. A somewhat separate area of convection may also develop from northeastern WY to the Black Hills, as large-scale ascent preceding the mid-level shortwave trough overspreads this region. Modest low-level east-southeasterly flow will quickly veer to westerly at mid/upper levels, with some strengthening and hodograph elongation. Corresponding strong deep-layer shear will support supercells initially, with attendant threat for large hail. Given relatively cool temperatures aloft and the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates, isolated very large hail greater than 2 inches in diameter appears possible. A small zone with favorable overlap of moderate instability, strong deep-layer shear, and sufficient low-level shear remains apparent over parts of the NE Panhandle into northwest NE. This area may have a locally greater threat for a couple of tornadoes with any supercells that can persist late this afternoon into the early evening, assuming the boundary layer does not become too well mixed. Otherwise, upscale growth/clustering appears probable this evening as convective outflows aggregate into the central Plains. Severe/damaging winds should become the main threat as this occurs, with isolated significant gusts up to 75 mph possible if a more consolidated bow/MCS can develop. Confidence in this occurring still remains somewhat low, but the best chance for a more concentrated corridor of severe winds remains across parts of eastern CO into southwest NE and northwest KS this evening. ...Ozarks to the Ohio Valley... A rather moist low-level airmass remains present along/south of the front today, with surface dewpoints generally in the low to mid 70s, and precipitable water values around 1.75-2.2 inches. A fair amount of convective cloud debris is present along/near the front across the mid MS Valley. This will tend to slow diurnal destabilization to some extent across this area. Mid-level lapse rates are also expected to remain poor. Still, moderate to locally strong instability and steepened low-level lapse rates are forecast to develop through peak afternoon heating along/south of the front, which will extend from the Ozarks northeastward into parts of the OH Valley. Low-level winds are expected to remain generally weak, but a modest increase in southwesterly winds at mid levels should foster sufficient deep-layer shear to support some updraft organization. Mainly multicell clusters should develop this afternoon, focused along the front. Some of this activity may produce scattered damaging winds through early evening before eventually weakening. Morning guidance shows a greater concentration of thunderstorms with clustering potential across the Ozarks into the mid MS Valley. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...AND THE OZARKS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms appear possible through evening across parts of the northern/central High Plains, and from the Ozarks into the Ohio Valley. The most favorable corridor for isolated very large hail and significant severe wind gusts is centered on the central High Plains. ...20z Update... Severe probabilities remain unchanged from the previous outlook. Severe storms are possible into this evening from portions of the central High Plains to the Ozarks and lower Ohio Valley. See Severe Thunderstorm Watch 501 and MCD 1520 regarding short term discussions on severe potential in the central High Plains, MCD 1522 for the northern High Plains, and MCD 1521 for the Ozarks vicinity. ..Leitman.. 07/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper trough will continue moving eastward across Ontario and the Great Lakes today, while an upper high remains centered over the Southeast. Farther west, a separate mid-level shortwave trough will advance east-southeastward from the northern Rockies to the northern/central High Plains through tonight. Multiple convectively augmented mid-level vorticity maxima will move generally east-northeastward across the central Plains into the mid MS and OH Valleys. At the surface, a cold front extends from the OH Valley southwestward to the southern Plains. Weak lee cyclogenesis is forecast to occur across the central High Plains through late this afternoon, and modest low-level moisture return is anticipated to the north of the front and east of a weak surface lee trough across parts of the northern/central Plains. ...Northern/Central Plains... Morning clouds and lingering convection across parts of the central Plains will hamper the development of instability today, especially with eastward extent into NE/KS. Even so, pockets of filtered daytime heating will occur across the northern/central High Plains along and east of the surface lee trough. With steepened mid-level lapse rates present over eastern CO/WY into western SD/NE, a narrow zone of moderate instability is forecast to be in place prior to robust convective initiation this afternoon. Initial development should occur along the length of the lee trough from parts of western NE into eastern CO. A somewhat separate area of convection may also develop from northeastern WY to the Black Hills, as large-scale ascent preceding the mid-level shortwave trough overspreads this region. Modest low-level east-southeasterly flow will quickly veer to westerly at mid/upper levels, with some strengthening and hodograph elongation. Corresponding strong deep-layer shear will support supercells initially, with attendant threat for large hail. Given relatively cool temperatures aloft and the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates, isolated very large hail greater than 2 inches in diameter appears possible. A small zone with favorable overlap of moderate instability, strong deep-layer shear, and sufficient low-level shear remains apparent over parts of the NE Panhandle into northwest NE. This area may have a locally greater threat for a couple of tornadoes with any supercells that can persist late this afternoon into the early evening, assuming the boundary layer does not become too well mixed. Otherwise, upscale growth/clustering appears probable this evening as convective outflows aggregate into the central Plains. Severe/damaging winds should become the main threat as this occurs, with isolated significant gusts up to 75 mph possible if a more consolidated bow/MCS can develop. Confidence in this occurring still remains somewhat low, but the best chance for a more concentrated corridor of severe winds remains across parts of eastern CO into southwest NE and northwest KS this evening. ...Ozarks to the Ohio Valley... A rather moist low-level airmass remains present along/south of the front today, with surface dewpoints generally in the low to mid 70s, and precipitable water values around 1.75-2.2 inches. A fair amount of convective cloud debris is present along/near the front across the mid MS Valley. This will tend to slow diurnal destabilization to some extent across this area. Mid-level lapse rates are also expected to remain poor. Still, moderate to locally strong instability and steepened low-level lapse rates are forecast to develop through peak afternoon heating along/south of the front, which will extend from the Ozarks northeastward into parts of the OH Valley. Low-level winds are expected to remain generally weak, but a modest increase in southwesterly winds at mid levels should foster sufficient deep-layer shear to support some updraft organization. Mainly multicell clusters should develop this afternoon, focused along the front. Some of this activity may produce scattered damaging winds through early evening before eventually weakening. Morning guidance shows a greater concentration of thunderstorms with clustering potential across the Ozarks into the mid MS Valley. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...AND THE OZARKS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms appear possible through evening across parts of the northern/central High Plains, and from the Ozarks into the Ohio Valley. The most favorable corridor for isolated very large hail and significant severe wind gusts is centered on the central High Plains. ...20z Update... Severe probabilities remain unchanged from the previous outlook. Severe storms are possible into this evening from portions of the central High Plains to the Ozarks and lower Ohio Valley. See Severe Thunderstorm Watch 501 and MCD 1520 regarding short term discussions on severe potential in the central High Plains, MCD 1522 for the northern High Plains, and MCD 1521 for the Ozarks vicinity. ..Leitman.. 07/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper trough will continue moving eastward across Ontario and the Great Lakes today, while an upper high remains centered over the Southeast. Farther west, a separate mid-level shortwave trough will advance east-southeastward from the northern Rockies to the northern/central High Plains through tonight. Multiple convectively augmented mid-level vorticity maxima will move generally east-northeastward across the central Plains into the mid MS and OH Valleys. At the surface, a cold front extends from the OH Valley southwestward to the southern Plains. Weak lee cyclogenesis is forecast to occur across the central High Plains through late this afternoon, and modest low-level moisture return is anticipated to the north of the front and east of a weak surface lee trough across parts of the northern/central Plains. ...Northern/Central Plains... Morning clouds and lingering convection across parts of the central Plains will hamper the development of instability today, especially with eastward extent into NE/KS. Even so, pockets of filtered daytime heating will occur across the northern/central High Plains along and east of the surface lee trough. With steepened mid-level lapse rates present over eastern CO/WY into western SD/NE, a narrow zone of moderate instability is forecast to be in place prior to robust convective initiation this afternoon. Initial development should occur along the length of the lee trough from parts of western NE into eastern CO. A somewhat separate area of convection may also develop from northeastern WY to the Black Hills, as large-scale ascent preceding the mid-level shortwave trough overspreads this region. Modest low-level east-southeasterly flow will quickly veer to westerly at mid/upper levels, with some strengthening and hodograph elongation. Corresponding strong deep-layer shear will support supercells initially, with attendant threat for large hail. Given relatively cool temperatures aloft and the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates, isolated very large hail greater than 2 inches in diameter appears possible. A small zone with favorable overlap of moderate instability, strong deep-layer shear, and sufficient low-level shear remains apparent over parts of the NE Panhandle into northwest NE. This area may have a locally greater threat for a couple of tornadoes with any supercells that can persist late this afternoon into the early evening, assuming the boundary layer does not become too well mixed. Otherwise, upscale growth/clustering appears probable this evening as convective outflows aggregate into the central Plains. Severe/damaging winds should become the main threat as this occurs, with isolated significant gusts up to 75 mph possible if a more consolidated bow/MCS can develop. Confidence in this occurring still remains somewhat low, but the best chance for a more concentrated corridor of severe winds remains across parts of eastern CO into southwest NE and northwest KS this evening. ...Ozarks to the Ohio Valley... A rather moist low-level airmass remains present along/south of the front today, with surface dewpoints generally in the low to mid 70s, and precipitable water values around 1.75-2.2 inches. A fair amount of convective cloud debris is present along/near the front across the mid MS Valley. This will tend to slow diurnal destabilization to some extent across this area. Mid-level lapse rates are also expected to remain poor. Still, moderate to locally strong instability and steepened low-level lapse rates are forecast to develop through peak afternoon heating along/south of the front, which will extend from the Ozarks northeastward into parts of the OH Valley. Low-level winds are expected to remain generally weak, but a modest increase in southwesterly winds at mid levels should foster sufficient deep-layer shear to support some updraft organization. Mainly multicell clusters should develop this afternoon, focused along the front. Some of this activity may produce scattered damaging winds through early evening before eventually weakening. Morning guidance shows a greater concentration of thunderstorms with clustering potential across the Ozarks into the mid MS Valley. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...AND THE OZARKS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms appear possible through evening across parts of the northern/central High Plains, and from the Ozarks into the Ohio Valley. The most favorable corridor for isolated very large hail and significant severe wind gusts is centered on the central High Plains. ...20z Update... Severe probabilities remain unchanged from the previous outlook. Severe storms are possible into this evening from portions of the central High Plains to the Ozarks and lower Ohio Valley. See Severe Thunderstorm Watch 501 and MCD 1520 regarding short term discussions on severe potential in the central High Plains, MCD 1522 for the northern High Plains, and MCD 1521 for the Ozarks vicinity. ..Leitman.. 07/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper trough will continue moving eastward across Ontario and the Great Lakes today, while an upper high remains centered over the Southeast. Farther west, a separate mid-level shortwave trough will advance east-southeastward from the northern Rockies to the northern/central High Plains through tonight. Multiple convectively augmented mid-level vorticity maxima will move generally east-northeastward across the central Plains into the mid MS and OH Valleys. At the surface, a cold front extends from the OH Valley southwestward to the southern Plains. Weak lee cyclogenesis is forecast to occur across the central High Plains through late this afternoon, and modest low-level moisture return is anticipated to the north of the front and east of a weak surface lee trough across parts of the northern/central Plains. ...Northern/Central Plains... Morning clouds and lingering convection across parts of the central Plains will hamper the development of instability today, especially with eastward extent into NE/KS. Even so, pockets of filtered daytime heating will occur across the northern/central High Plains along and east of the surface lee trough. With steepened mid-level lapse rates present over eastern CO/WY into western SD/NE, a narrow zone of moderate instability is forecast to be in place prior to robust convective initiation this afternoon. Initial development should occur along the length of the lee trough from parts of western NE into eastern CO. A somewhat separate area of convection may also develop from northeastern WY to the Black Hills, as large-scale ascent preceding the mid-level shortwave trough overspreads this region. Modest low-level east-southeasterly flow will quickly veer to westerly at mid/upper levels, with some strengthening and hodograph elongation. Corresponding strong deep-layer shear will support supercells initially, with attendant threat for large hail. Given relatively cool temperatures aloft and the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates, isolated very large hail greater than 2 inches in diameter appears possible. A small zone with favorable overlap of moderate instability, strong deep-layer shear, and sufficient low-level shear remains apparent over parts of the NE Panhandle into northwest NE. This area may have a locally greater threat for a couple of tornadoes with any supercells that can persist late this afternoon into the early evening, assuming the boundary layer does not become too well mixed. Otherwise, upscale growth/clustering appears probable this evening as convective outflows aggregate into the central Plains. Severe/damaging winds should become the main threat as this occurs, with isolated significant gusts up to 75 mph possible if a more consolidated bow/MCS can develop. Confidence in this occurring still remains somewhat low, but the best chance for a more concentrated corridor of severe winds remains across parts of eastern CO into southwest NE and northwest KS this evening. ...Ozarks to the Ohio Valley... A rather moist low-level airmass remains present along/south of the front today, with surface dewpoints generally in the low to mid 70s, and precipitable water values around 1.75-2.2 inches. A fair amount of convective cloud debris is present along/near the front across the mid MS Valley. This will tend to slow diurnal destabilization to some extent across this area. Mid-level lapse rates are also expected to remain poor. Still, moderate to locally strong instability and steepened low-level lapse rates are forecast to develop through peak afternoon heating along/south of the front, which will extend from the Ozarks northeastward into parts of the OH Valley. Low-level winds are expected to remain generally weak, but a modest increase in southwesterly winds at mid levels should foster sufficient deep-layer shear to support some updraft organization. Mainly multicell clusters should develop this afternoon, focused along the front. Some of this activity may produce scattered damaging winds through early evening before eventually weakening. Morning guidance shows a greater concentration of thunderstorms with clustering potential across the Ozarks into the mid MS Valley. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...AND THE OZARKS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms appear possible through evening across parts of the northern/central High Plains, and from the Ozarks into the Ohio Valley. The most favorable corridor for isolated very large hail and significant severe wind gusts is centered on the central High Plains. ...20z Update... Severe probabilities remain unchanged from the previous outlook. Severe storms are possible into this evening from portions of the central High Plains to the Ozarks and lower Ohio Valley. See Severe Thunderstorm Watch 501 and MCD 1520 regarding short term discussions on severe potential in the central High Plains, MCD 1522 for the northern High Plains, and MCD 1521 for the Ozarks vicinity. ..Leitman.. 07/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper trough will continue moving eastward across Ontario and the Great Lakes today, while an upper high remains centered over the Southeast. Farther west, a separate mid-level shortwave trough will advance east-southeastward from the northern Rockies to the northern/central High Plains through tonight. Multiple convectively augmented mid-level vorticity maxima will move generally east-northeastward across the central Plains into the mid MS and OH Valleys. At the surface, a cold front extends from the OH Valley southwestward to the southern Plains. Weak lee cyclogenesis is forecast to occur across the central High Plains through late this afternoon, and modest low-level moisture return is anticipated to the north of the front and east of a weak surface lee trough across parts of the northern/central Plains. ...Northern/Central Plains... Morning clouds and lingering convection across parts of the central Plains will hamper the development of instability today, especially with eastward extent into NE/KS. Even so, pockets of filtered daytime heating will occur across the northern/central High Plains along and east of the surface lee trough. With steepened mid-level lapse rates present over eastern CO/WY into western SD/NE, a narrow zone of moderate instability is forecast to be in place prior to robust convective initiation this afternoon. Initial development should occur along the length of the lee trough from parts of western NE into eastern CO. A somewhat separate area of convection may also develop from northeastern WY to the Black Hills, as large-scale ascent preceding the mid-level shortwave trough overspreads this region. Modest low-level east-southeasterly flow will quickly veer to westerly at mid/upper levels, with some strengthening and hodograph elongation. Corresponding strong deep-layer shear will support supercells initially, with attendant threat for large hail. Given relatively cool temperatures aloft and the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates, isolated very large hail greater than 2 inches in diameter appears possible. A small zone with favorable overlap of moderate instability, strong deep-layer shear, and sufficient low-level shear remains apparent over parts of the NE Panhandle into northwest NE. This area may have a locally greater threat for a couple of tornadoes with any supercells that can persist late this afternoon into the early evening, assuming the boundary layer does not become too well mixed. Otherwise, upscale growth/clustering appears probable this evening as convective outflows aggregate into the central Plains. Severe/damaging winds should become the main threat as this occurs, with isolated significant gusts up to 75 mph possible if a more consolidated bow/MCS can develop. Confidence in this occurring still remains somewhat low, but the best chance for a more concentrated corridor of severe winds remains across parts of eastern CO into southwest NE and northwest KS this evening. ...Ozarks to the Ohio Valley... A rather moist low-level airmass remains present along/south of the front today, with surface dewpoints generally in the low to mid 70s, and precipitable water values around 1.75-2.2 inches. A fair amount of convective cloud debris is present along/near the front across the mid MS Valley. This will tend to slow diurnal destabilization to some extent across this area. Mid-level lapse rates are also expected to remain poor. Still, moderate to locally strong instability and steepened low-level lapse rates are forecast to develop through peak afternoon heating along/south of the front, which will extend from the Ozarks northeastward into parts of the OH Valley. Low-level winds are expected to remain generally weak, but a modest increase in southwesterly winds at mid levels should foster sufficient deep-layer shear to support some updraft organization. Mainly multicell clusters should develop this afternoon, focused along the front. Some of this activity may produce scattered damaging winds through early evening before eventually weakening. Morning guidance shows a greater concentration of thunderstorms with clustering potential across the Ozarks into the mid MS Valley. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...AND THE OZARKS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms appear possible through evening across parts of the northern/central High Plains, and from the Ozarks into the Ohio Valley. The most favorable corridor for isolated very large hail and significant severe wind gusts is centered on the central High Plains. ...20z Update... Severe probabilities remain unchanged from the previous outlook. Severe storms are possible into this evening from portions of the central High Plains to the Ozarks and lower Ohio Valley. See Severe Thunderstorm Watch 501 and MCD 1520 regarding short term discussions on severe potential in the central High Plains, MCD 1522 for the northern High Plains, and MCD 1521 for the Ozarks vicinity. ..Leitman.. 07/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper trough will continue moving eastward across Ontario and the Great Lakes today, while an upper high remains centered over the Southeast. Farther west, a separate mid-level shortwave trough will advance east-southeastward from the northern Rockies to the northern/central High Plains through tonight. Multiple convectively augmented mid-level vorticity maxima will move generally east-northeastward across the central Plains into the mid MS and OH Valleys. At the surface, a cold front extends from the OH Valley southwestward to the southern Plains. Weak lee cyclogenesis is forecast to occur across the central High Plains through late this afternoon, and modest low-level moisture return is anticipated to the north of the front and east of a weak surface lee trough across parts of the northern/central Plains. ...Northern/Central Plains... Morning clouds and lingering convection across parts of the central Plains will hamper the development of instability today, especially with eastward extent into NE/KS. Even so, pockets of filtered daytime heating will occur across the northern/central High Plains along and east of the surface lee trough. With steepened mid-level lapse rates present over eastern CO/WY into western SD/NE, a narrow zone of moderate instability is forecast to be in place prior to robust convective initiation this afternoon. Initial development should occur along the length of the lee trough from parts of western NE into eastern CO. A somewhat separate area of convection may also develop from northeastern WY to the Black Hills, as large-scale ascent preceding the mid-level shortwave trough overspreads this region. Modest low-level east-southeasterly flow will quickly veer to westerly at mid/upper levels, with some strengthening and hodograph elongation. Corresponding strong deep-layer shear will support supercells initially, with attendant threat for large hail. Given relatively cool temperatures aloft and the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates, isolated very large hail greater than 2 inches in diameter appears possible. A small zone with favorable overlap of moderate instability, strong deep-layer shear, and sufficient low-level shear remains apparent over parts of the NE Panhandle into northwest NE. This area may have a locally greater threat for a couple of tornadoes with any supercells that can persist late this afternoon into the early evening, assuming the boundary layer does not become too well mixed. Otherwise, upscale growth/clustering appears probable this evening as convective outflows aggregate into the central Plains. Severe/damaging winds should become the main threat as this occurs, with isolated significant gusts up to 75 mph possible if a more consolidated bow/MCS can develop. Confidence in this occurring still remains somewhat low, but the best chance for a more concentrated corridor of severe winds remains across parts of eastern CO into southwest NE and northwest KS this evening. ...Ozarks to the Ohio Valley... A rather moist low-level airmass remains present along/south of the front today, with surface dewpoints generally in the low to mid 70s, and precipitable water values around 1.75-2.2 inches. A fair amount of convective cloud debris is present along/near the front across the mid MS Valley. This will tend to slow diurnal destabilization to some extent across this area. Mid-level lapse rates are also expected to remain poor. Still, moderate to locally strong instability and steepened low-level lapse rates are forecast to develop through peak afternoon heating along/south of the front, which will extend from the Ozarks northeastward into parts of the OH Valley. Low-level winds are expected to remain generally weak, but a modest increase in southwesterly winds at mid levels should foster sufficient deep-layer shear to support some updraft organization. Mainly multicell clusters should develop this afternoon, focused along the front. Some of this activity may produce scattered damaging winds through early evening before eventually weakening. Morning guidance shows a greater concentration of thunderstorms with clustering potential across the Ozarks into the mid MS Valley. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...AND THE OZARKS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms appear possible through evening across parts of the northern/central High Plains, and from the Ozarks into the Ohio Valley. The most favorable corridor for isolated very large hail and significant severe wind gusts is centered on the central High Plains. ...20z Update... Severe probabilities remain unchanged from the previous outlook. Severe storms are possible into this evening from portions of the central High Plains to the Ozarks and lower Ohio Valley. See Severe Thunderstorm Watch 501 and MCD 1520 regarding short term discussions on severe potential in the central High Plains, MCD 1522 for the northern High Plains, and MCD 1521 for the Ozarks vicinity. ..Leitman.. 07/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper trough will continue moving eastward across Ontario and the Great Lakes today, while an upper high remains centered over the Southeast. Farther west, a separate mid-level shortwave trough will advance east-southeastward from the northern Rockies to the northern/central High Plains through tonight. Multiple convectively augmented mid-level vorticity maxima will move generally east-northeastward across the central Plains into the mid MS and OH Valleys. At the surface, a cold front extends from the OH Valley southwestward to the southern Plains. Weak lee cyclogenesis is forecast to occur across the central High Plains through late this afternoon, and modest low-level moisture return is anticipated to the north of the front and east of a weak surface lee trough across parts of the northern/central Plains. ...Northern/Central Plains... Morning clouds and lingering convection across parts of the central Plains will hamper the development of instability today, especially with eastward extent into NE/KS. Even so, pockets of filtered daytime heating will occur across the northern/central High Plains along and east of the surface lee trough. With steepened mid-level lapse rates present over eastern CO/WY into western SD/NE, a narrow zone of moderate instability is forecast to be in place prior to robust convective initiation this afternoon. Initial development should occur along the length of the lee trough from parts of western NE into eastern CO. A somewhat separate area of convection may also develop from northeastern WY to the Black Hills, as large-scale ascent preceding the mid-level shortwave trough overspreads this region. Modest low-level east-southeasterly flow will quickly veer to westerly at mid/upper levels, with some strengthening and hodograph elongation. Corresponding strong deep-layer shear will support supercells initially, with attendant threat for large hail. Given relatively cool temperatures aloft and the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates, isolated very large hail greater than 2 inches in diameter appears possible. A small zone with favorable overlap of moderate instability, strong deep-layer shear, and sufficient low-level shear remains apparent over parts of the NE Panhandle into northwest NE. This area may have a locally greater threat for a couple of tornadoes with any supercells that can persist late this afternoon into the early evening, assuming the boundary layer does not become too well mixed. Otherwise, upscale growth/clustering appears probable this evening as convective outflows aggregate into the central Plains. Severe/damaging winds should become the main threat as this occurs, with isolated significant gusts up to 75 mph possible if a more consolidated bow/MCS can develop. Confidence in this occurring still remains somewhat low, but the best chance for a more concentrated corridor of severe winds remains across parts of eastern CO into southwest NE and northwest KS this evening. ...Ozarks to the Ohio Valley... A rather moist low-level airmass remains present along/south of the front today, with surface dewpoints generally in the low to mid 70s, and precipitable water values around 1.75-2.2 inches. A fair amount of convective cloud debris is present along/near the front across the mid MS Valley. This will tend to slow diurnal destabilization to some extent across this area. Mid-level lapse rates are also expected to remain poor. Still, moderate to locally strong instability and steepened low-level lapse rates are forecast to develop through peak afternoon heating along/south of the front, which will extend from the Ozarks northeastward into parts of the OH Valley. Low-level winds are expected to remain generally weak, but a modest increase in southwesterly winds at mid levels should foster sufficient deep-layer shear to support some updraft organization. Mainly multicell clusters should develop this afternoon, focused along the front. Some of this activity may produce scattered damaging winds through early evening before eventually weakening. Morning guidance shows a greater concentration of thunderstorms with clustering potential across the Ozarks into the mid MS Valley. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...AND THE OZARKS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms appear possible through evening across parts of the northern/central High Plains, and from the Ozarks into the Ohio Valley. The most favorable corridor for isolated very large hail and significant severe wind gusts is centered on the central High Plains. ...20z Update... Severe probabilities remain unchanged from the previous outlook. Severe storms are possible into this evening from portions of the central High Plains to the Ozarks and lower Ohio Valley. See Severe Thunderstorm Watch 501 and MCD 1520 regarding short term discussions on severe potential in the central High Plains, MCD 1522 for the northern High Plains, and MCD 1521 for the Ozarks vicinity. ..Leitman.. 07/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper trough will continue moving eastward across Ontario and the Great Lakes today, while an upper high remains centered over the Southeast. Farther west, a separate mid-level shortwave trough will advance east-southeastward from the northern Rockies to the northern/central High Plains through tonight. Multiple convectively augmented mid-level vorticity maxima will move generally east-northeastward across the central Plains into the mid MS and OH Valleys. At the surface, a cold front extends from the OH Valley southwestward to the southern Plains. Weak lee cyclogenesis is forecast to occur across the central High Plains through late this afternoon, and modest low-level moisture return is anticipated to the north of the front and east of a weak surface lee trough across parts of the northern/central Plains. ...Northern/Central Plains... Morning clouds and lingering convection across parts of the central Plains will hamper the development of instability today, especially with eastward extent into NE/KS. Even so, pockets of filtered daytime heating will occur across the northern/central High Plains along and east of the surface lee trough. With steepened mid-level lapse rates present over eastern CO/WY into western SD/NE, a narrow zone of moderate instability is forecast to be in place prior to robust convective initiation this afternoon. Initial development should occur along the length of the lee trough from parts of western NE into eastern CO. A somewhat separate area of convection may also develop from northeastern WY to the Black Hills, as large-scale ascent preceding the mid-level shortwave trough overspreads this region. Modest low-level east-southeasterly flow will quickly veer to westerly at mid/upper levels, with some strengthening and hodograph elongation. Corresponding strong deep-layer shear will support supercells initially, with attendant threat for large hail. Given relatively cool temperatures aloft and the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates, isolated very large hail greater than 2 inches in diameter appears possible. A small zone with favorable overlap of moderate instability, strong deep-layer shear, and sufficient low-level shear remains apparent over parts of the NE Panhandle into northwest NE. This area may have a locally greater threat for a couple of tornadoes with any supercells that can persist late this afternoon into the early evening, assuming the boundary layer does not become too well mixed. Otherwise, upscale growth/clustering appears probable this evening as convective outflows aggregate into the central Plains. Severe/damaging winds should become the main threat as this occurs, with isolated significant gusts up to 75 mph possible if a more consolidated bow/MCS can develop. Confidence in this occurring still remains somewhat low, but the best chance for a more concentrated corridor of severe winds remains across parts of eastern CO into southwest NE and northwest KS this evening. ...Ozarks to the Ohio Valley... A rather moist low-level airmass remains present along/south of the front today, with surface dewpoints generally in the low to mid 70s, and precipitable water values around 1.75-2.2 inches. A fair amount of convective cloud debris is present along/near the front across the mid MS Valley. This will tend to slow diurnal destabilization to some extent across this area. Mid-level lapse rates are also expected to remain poor. Still, moderate to locally strong instability and steepened low-level lapse rates are forecast to develop through peak afternoon heating along/south of the front, which will extend from the Ozarks northeastward into parts of the OH Valley. Low-level winds are expected to remain generally weak, but a modest increase in southwesterly winds at mid levels should foster sufficient deep-layer shear to support some updraft organization. Mainly multicell clusters should develop this afternoon, focused along the front. Some of this activity may produce scattered damaging winds through early evening before eventually weakening. Morning guidance shows a greater concentration of thunderstorms with clustering potential across the Ozarks into the mid MS Valley. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...AND THE OZARKS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms appear possible through evening across parts of the northern/central High Plains, and from the Ozarks into the Ohio Valley. The most favorable corridor for isolated very large hail and significant severe wind gusts is centered on the central High Plains. ...20z Update... Severe probabilities remain unchanged from the previous outlook. Severe storms are possible into this evening from portions of the central High Plains to the Ozarks and lower Ohio Valley. See Severe Thunderstorm Watch 501 and MCD 1520 regarding short term discussions on severe potential in the central High Plains, MCD 1522 for the northern High Plains, and MCD 1521 for the Ozarks vicinity. ..Leitman.. 07/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper trough will continue moving eastward across Ontario and the Great Lakes today, while an upper high remains centered over the Southeast. Farther west, a separate mid-level shortwave trough will advance east-southeastward from the northern Rockies to the northern/central High Plains through tonight. Multiple convectively augmented mid-level vorticity maxima will move generally east-northeastward across the central Plains into the mid MS and OH Valleys. At the surface, a cold front extends from the OH Valley southwestward to the southern Plains. Weak lee cyclogenesis is forecast to occur across the central High Plains through late this afternoon, and modest low-level moisture return is anticipated to the north of the front and east of a weak surface lee trough across parts of the northern/central Plains. ...Northern/Central Plains... Morning clouds and lingering convection across parts of the central Plains will hamper the development of instability today, especially with eastward extent into NE/KS. Even so, pockets of filtered daytime heating will occur across the northern/central High Plains along and east of the surface lee trough. With steepened mid-level lapse rates present over eastern CO/WY into western SD/NE, a narrow zone of moderate instability is forecast to be in place prior to robust convective initiation this afternoon. Initial development should occur along the length of the lee trough from parts of western NE into eastern CO. A somewhat separate area of convection may also develop from northeastern WY to the Black Hills, as large-scale ascent preceding the mid-level shortwave trough overspreads this region. Modest low-level east-southeasterly flow will quickly veer to westerly at mid/upper levels, with some strengthening and hodograph elongation. Corresponding strong deep-layer shear will support supercells initially, with attendant threat for large hail. Given relatively cool temperatures aloft and the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates, isolated very large hail greater than 2 inches in diameter appears possible. A small zone with favorable overlap of moderate instability, strong deep-layer shear, and sufficient low-level shear remains apparent over parts of the NE Panhandle into northwest NE. This area may have a locally greater threat for a couple of tornadoes with any supercells that can persist late this afternoon into the early evening, assuming the boundary layer does not become too well mixed. Otherwise, upscale growth/clustering appears probable this evening as convective outflows aggregate into the central Plains. Severe/damaging winds should become the main threat as this occurs, with isolated significant gusts up to 75 mph possible if a more consolidated bow/MCS can develop. Confidence in this occurring still remains somewhat low, but the best chance for a more concentrated corridor of severe winds remains across parts of eastern CO into southwest NE and northwest KS this evening. ...Ozarks to the Ohio Valley... A rather moist low-level airmass remains present along/south of the front today, with surface dewpoints generally in the low to mid 70s, and precipitable water values around 1.75-2.2 inches. A fair amount of convective cloud debris is present along/near the front across the mid MS Valley. This will tend to slow diurnal destabilization to some extent across this area. Mid-level lapse rates are also expected to remain poor. Still, moderate to locally strong instability and steepened low-level lapse rates are forecast to develop through peak afternoon heating along/south of the front, which will extend from the Ozarks northeastward into parts of the OH Valley. Low-level winds are expected to remain generally weak, but a modest increase in southwesterly winds at mid levels should foster sufficient deep-layer shear to support some updraft organization. Mainly multicell clusters should develop this afternoon, focused along the front. Some of this activity may produce scattered damaging winds through early evening before eventually weakening. Morning guidance shows a greater concentration of thunderstorms with clustering potential across the Ozarks into the mid MS Valley. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...AND THE OZARKS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms appear possible through evening across parts of the northern/central High Plains, and from the Ozarks into the Ohio Valley. The most favorable corridor for isolated very large hail and significant severe wind gusts is centered on the central High Plains. ...20z Update... Severe probabilities remain unchanged from the previous outlook. Severe storms are possible into this evening from portions of the central High Plains to the Ozarks and lower Ohio Valley. See Severe Thunderstorm Watch 501 and MCD 1520 regarding short term discussions on severe potential in the central High Plains, MCD 1522 for the northern High Plains, and MCD 1521 for the Ozarks vicinity. ..Leitman.. 07/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper trough will continue moving eastward across Ontario and the Great Lakes today, while an upper high remains centered over the Southeast. Farther west, a separate mid-level shortwave trough will advance east-southeastward from the northern Rockies to the northern/central High Plains through tonight. Multiple convectively augmented mid-level vorticity maxima will move generally east-northeastward across the central Plains into the mid MS and OH Valleys. At the surface, a cold front extends from the OH Valley southwestward to the southern Plains. Weak lee cyclogenesis is forecast to occur across the central High Plains through late this afternoon, and modest low-level moisture return is anticipated to the north of the front and east of a weak surface lee trough across parts of the northern/central Plains. ...Northern/Central Plains... Morning clouds and lingering convection across parts of the central Plains will hamper the development of instability today, especially with eastward extent into NE/KS. Even so, pockets of filtered daytime heating will occur across the northern/central High Plains along and east of the surface lee trough. With steepened mid-level lapse rates present over eastern CO/WY into western SD/NE, a narrow zone of moderate instability is forecast to be in place prior to robust convective initiation this afternoon. Initial development should occur along the length of the lee trough from parts of western NE into eastern CO. A somewhat separate area of convection may also develop from northeastern WY to the Black Hills, as large-scale ascent preceding the mid-level shortwave trough overspreads this region. Modest low-level east-southeasterly flow will quickly veer to westerly at mid/upper levels, with some strengthening and hodograph elongation. Corresponding strong deep-layer shear will support supercells initially, with attendant threat for large hail. Given relatively cool temperatures aloft and the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates, isolated very large hail greater than 2 inches in diameter appears possible. A small zone with favorable overlap of moderate instability, strong deep-layer shear, and sufficient low-level shear remains apparent over parts of the NE Panhandle into northwest NE. This area may have a locally greater threat for a couple of tornadoes with any supercells that can persist late this afternoon into the early evening, assuming the boundary layer does not become too well mixed. Otherwise, upscale growth/clustering appears probable this evening as convective outflows aggregate into the central Plains. Severe/damaging winds should become the main threat as this occurs, with isolated significant gusts up to 75 mph possible if a more consolidated bow/MCS can develop. Confidence in this occurring still remains somewhat low, but the best chance for a more concentrated corridor of severe winds remains across parts of eastern CO into southwest NE and northwest KS this evening. ...Ozarks to the Ohio Valley... A rather moist low-level airmass remains present along/south of the front today, with surface dewpoints generally in the low to mid 70s, and precipitable water values around 1.75-2.2 inches. A fair amount of convective cloud debris is present along/near the front across the mid MS Valley. This will tend to slow diurnal destabilization to some extent across this area. Mid-level lapse rates are also expected to remain poor. Still, moderate to locally strong instability and steepened low-level lapse rates are forecast to develop through peak afternoon heating along/south of the front, which will extend from the Ozarks northeastward into parts of the OH Valley. Low-level winds are expected to remain generally weak, but a modest increase in southwesterly winds at mid levels should foster sufficient deep-layer shear to support some updraft organization. Mainly multicell clusters should develop this afternoon, focused along the front. Some of this activity may produce scattered damaging winds through early evening before eventually weakening. Morning guidance shows a greater concentration of thunderstorms with clustering potential across the Ozarks into the mid MS Valley. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...AND THE OZARKS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms appear possible through evening across parts of the northern/central High Plains, and from the Ozarks into the Ohio Valley. The most favorable corridor for isolated very large hail and significant severe wind gusts is centered on the central High Plains. ...20z Update... Severe probabilities remain unchanged from the previous outlook. Severe storms are possible into this evening from portions of the central High Plains to the Ozarks and lower Ohio Valley. See Severe Thunderstorm Watch 501 and MCD 1520 regarding short term discussions on severe potential in the central High Plains, MCD 1522 for the northern High Plains, and MCD 1521 for the Ozarks vicinity. ..Leitman.. 07/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper trough will continue moving eastward across Ontario and the Great Lakes today, while an upper high remains centered over the Southeast. Farther west, a separate mid-level shortwave trough will advance east-southeastward from the northern Rockies to the northern/central High Plains through tonight. Multiple convectively augmented mid-level vorticity maxima will move generally east-northeastward across the central Plains into the mid MS and OH Valleys. At the surface, a cold front extends from the OH Valley southwestward to the southern Plains. Weak lee cyclogenesis is forecast to occur across the central High Plains through late this afternoon, and modest low-level moisture return is anticipated to the north of the front and east of a weak surface lee trough across parts of the northern/central Plains. ...Northern/Central Plains... Morning clouds and lingering convection across parts of the central Plains will hamper the development of instability today, especially with eastward extent into NE/KS. Even so, pockets of filtered daytime heating will occur across the northern/central High Plains along and east of the surface lee trough. With steepened mid-level lapse rates present over eastern CO/WY into western SD/NE, a narrow zone of moderate instability is forecast to be in place prior to robust convective initiation this afternoon. Initial development should occur along the length of the lee trough from parts of western NE into eastern CO. A somewhat separate area of convection may also develop from northeastern WY to the Black Hills, as large-scale ascent preceding the mid-level shortwave trough overspreads this region. Modest low-level east-southeasterly flow will quickly veer to westerly at mid/upper levels, with some strengthening and hodograph elongation. Corresponding strong deep-layer shear will support supercells initially, with attendant threat for large hail. Given relatively cool temperatures aloft and the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates, isolated very large hail greater than 2 inches in diameter appears possible. A small zone with favorable overlap of moderate instability, strong deep-layer shear, and sufficient low-level shear remains apparent over parts of the NE Panhandle into northwest NE. This area may have a locally greater threat for a couple of tornadoes with any supercells that can persist late this afternoon into the early evening, assuming the boundary layer does not become too well mixed. Otherwise, upscale growth/clustering appears probable this evening as convective outflows aggregate into the central Plains. Severe/damaging winds should become the main threat as this occurs, with isolated significant gusts up to 75 mph possible if a more consolidated bow/MCS can develop. Confidence in this occurring still remains somewhat low, but the best chance for a more concentrated corridor of severe winds remains across parts of eastern CO into southwest NE and northwest KS this evening. ...Ozarks to the Ohio Valley... A rather moist low-level airmass remains present along/south of the front today, with surface dewpoints generally in the low to mid 70s, and precipitable water values around 1.75-2.2 inches. A fair amount of convective cloud debris is present along/near the front across the mid MS Valley. This will tend to slow diurnal destabilization to some extent across this area. Mid-level lapse rates are also expected to remain poor. Still, moderate to locally strong instability and steepened low-level lapse rates are forecast to develop through peak afternoon heating along/south of the front, which will extend from the Ozarks northeastward into parts of the OH Valley. Low-level winds are expected to remain generally weak, but a modest increase in southwesterly winds at mid levels should foster sufficient deep-layer shear to support some updraft organization. Mainly multicell clusters should develop this afternoon, focused along the front. Some of this activity may produce scattered damaging winds through early evening before eventually weakening. Morning guidance shows a greater concentration of thunderstorms with clustering potential across the Ozarks into the mid MS Valley. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...AND THE OZARKS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms appear possible through evening across parts of the northern/central High Plains, and from the Ozarks into the Ohio Valley. The most favorable corridor for isolated very large hail and significant severe wind gusts is centered on the central High Plains. ...20z Update... Severe probabilities remain unchanged from the previous outlook. Severe storms are possible into this evening from portions of the central High Plains to the Ozarks and lower Ohio Valley. See Severe Thunderstorm Watch 501 and MCD 1520 regarding short term discussions on severe potential in the central High Plains, MCD 1522 for the northern High Plains, and MCD 1521 for the Ozarks vicinity. ..Leitman.. 07/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper trough will continue moving eastward across Ontario and the Great Lakes today, while an upper high remains centered over the Southeast. Farther west, a separate mid-level shortwave trough will advance east-southeastward from the northern Rockies to the northern/central High Plains through tonight. Multiple convectively augmented mid-level vorticity maxima will move generally east-northeastward across the central Plains into the mid MS and OH Valleys. At the surface, a cold front extends from the OH Valley southwestward to the southern Plains. Weak lee cyclogenesis is forecast to occur across the central High Plains through late this afternoon, and modest low-level moisture return is anticipated to the north of the front and east of a weak surface lee trough across parts of the northern/central Plains. ...Northern/Central Plains... Morning clouds and lingering convection across parts of the central Plains will hamper the development of instability today, especially with eastward extent into NE/KS. Even so, pockets of filtered daytime heating will occur across the northern/central High Plains along and east of the surface lee trough. With steepened mid-level lapse rates present over eastern CO/WY into western SD/NE, a narrow zone of moderate instability is forecast to be in place prior to robust convective initiation this afternoon. Initial development should occur along the length of the lee trough from parts of western NE into eastern CO. A somewhat separate area of convection may also develop from northeastern WY to the Black Hills, as large-scale ascent preceding the mid-level shortwave trough overspreads this region. Modest low-level east-southeasterly flow will quickly veer to westerly at mid/upper levels, with some strengthening and hodograph elongation. Corresponding strong deep-layer shear will support supercells initially, with attendant threat for large hail. Given relatively cool temperatures aloft and the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates, isolated very large hail greater than 2 inches in diameter appears possible. A small zone with favorable overlap of moderate instability, strong deep-layer shear, and sufficient low-level shear remains apparent over parts of the NE Panhandle into northwest NE. This area may have a locally greater threat for a couple of tornadoes with any supercells that can persist late this afternoon into the early evening, assuming the boundary layer does not become too well mixed. Otherwise, upscale growth/clustering appears probable this evening as convective outflows aggregate into the central Plains. Severe/damaging winds should become the main threat as this occurs, with isolated significant gusts up to 75 mph possible if a more consolidated bow/MCS can develop. Confidence in this occurring still remains somewhat low, but the best chance for a more concentrated corridor of severe winds remains across parts of eastern CO into southwest NE and northwest KS this evening. ...Ozarks to the Ohio Valley... A rather moist low-level airmass remains present along/south of the front today, with surface dewpoints generally in the low to mid 70s, and precipitable water values around 1.75-2.2 inches. A fair amount of convective cloud debris is present along/near the front across the mid MS Valley. This will tend to slow diurnal destabilization to some extent across this area. Mid-level lapse rates are also expected to remain poor. Still, moderate to locally strong instability and steepened low-level lapse rates are forecast to develop through peak afternoon heating along/south of the front, which will extend from the Ozarks northeastward into parts of the OH Valley. Low-level winds are expected to remain generally weak, but a modest increase in southwesterly winds at mid levels should foster sufficient deep-layer shear to support some updraft organization. Mainly multicell clusters should develop this afternoon, focused along the front. Some of this activity may produce scattered damaging winds through early evening before eventually weakening. Morning guidance shows a greater concentration of thunderstorms with clustering potential across the Ozarks into the mid MS Valley. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...AND THE OZARKS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms appear possible through evening across parts of the northern/central High Plains, and from the Ozarks into the Ohio Valley. The most favorable corridor for isolated very large hail and significant severe wind gusts is centered on the central High Plains. ...20z Update... Severe probabilities remain unchanged from the previous outlook. Severe storms are possible into this evening from portions of the central High Plains to the Ozarks and lower Ohio Valley. See Severe Thunderstorm Watch 501 and MCD 1520 regarding short term discussions on severe potential in the central High Plains, MCD 1522 for the northern High Plains, and MCD 1521 for the Ozarks vicinity. ..Leitman.. 07/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper trough will continue moving eastward across Ontario and the Great Lakes today, while an upper high remains centered over the Southeast. Farther west, a separate mid-level shortwave trough will advance east-southeastward from the northern Rockies to the northern/central High Plains through tonight. Multiple convectively augmented mid-level vorticity maxima will move generally east-northeastward across the central Plains into the mid MS and OH Valleys. At the surface, a cold front extends from the OH Valley southwestward to the southern Plains. Weak lee cyclogenesis is forecast to occur across the central High Plains through late this afternoon, and modest low-level moisture return is anticipated to the north of the front and east of a weak surface lee trough across parts of the northern/central Plains. ...Northern/Central Plains... Morning clouds and lingering convection across parts of the central Plains will hamper the development of instability today, especially with eastward extent into NE/KS. Even so, pockets of filtered daytime heating will occur across the northern/central High Plains along and east of the surface lee trough. With steepened mid-level lapse rates present over eastern CO/WY into western SD/NE, a narrow zone of moderate instability is forecast to be in place prior to robust convective initiation this afternoon. Initial development should occur along the length of the lee trough from parts of western NE into eastern CO. A somewhat separate area of convection may also develop from northeastern WY to the Black Hills, as large-scale ascent preceding the mid-level shortwave trough overspreads this region. Modest low-level east-southeasterly flow will quickly veer to westerly at mid/upper levels, with some strengthening and hodograph elongation. Corresponding strong deep-layer shear will support supercells initially, with attendant threat for large hail. Given relatively cool temperatures aloft and the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates, isolated very large hail greater than 2 inches in diameter appears possible. A small zone with favorable overlap of moderate instability, strong deep-layer shear, and sufficient low-level shear remains apparent over parts of the NE Panhandle into northwest NE. This area may have a locally greater threat for a couple of tornadoes with any supercells that can persist late this afternoon into the early evening, assuming the boundary layer does not become too well mixed. Otherwise, upscale growth/clustering appears probable this evening as convective outflows aggregate into the central Plains. Severe/damaging winds should become the main threat as this occurs, with isolated significant gusts up to 75 mph possible if a more consolidated bow/MCS can develop. Confidence in this occurring still remains somewhat low, but the best chance for a more concentrated corridor of severe winds remains across parts of eastern CO into southwest NE and northwest KS this evening. ...Ozarks to the Ohio Valley... A rather moist low-level airmass remains present along/south of the front today, with surface dewpoints generally in the low to mid 70s, and precipitable water values around 1.75-2.2 inches. A fair amount of convective cloud debris is present along/near the front across the mid MS Valley. This will tend to slow diurnal destabilization to some extent across this area. Mid-level lapse rates are also expected to remain poor. Still, moderate to locally strong instability and steepened low-level lapse rates are forecast to develop through peak afternoon heating along/south of the front, which will extend from the Ozarks northeastward into parts of the OH Valley. Low-level winds are expected to remain generally weak, but a modest increase in southwesterly winds at mid levels should foster sufficient deep-layer shear to support some updraft organization. Mainly multicell clusters should develop this afternoon, focused along the front. Some of this activity may produce scattered damaging winds through early evening before eventually weakening. Morning guidance shows a greater concentration of thunderstorms with clustering potential across the Ozarks into the mid MS Valley. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...AND THE OZARKS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms appear possible through evening across parts of the northern/central High Plains, and from the Ozarks into the Ohio Valley. The most favorable corridor for isolated very large hail and significant severe wind gusts is centered on the central High Plains. ...20z Update... Severe probabilities remain unchanged from the previous outlook. Severe storms are possible into this evening from portions of the central High Plains to the Ozarks and lower Ohio Valley. See Severe Thunderstorm Watch 501 and MCD 1520 regarding short term discussions on severe potential in the central High Plains, MCD 1522 for the northern High Plains, and MCD 1521 for the Ozarks vicinity. ..Leitman.. 07/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper trough will continue moving eastward across Ontario and the Great Lakes today, while an upper high remains centered over the Southeast. Farther west, a separate mid-level shortwave trough will advance east-southeastward from the northern Rockies to the northern/central High Plains through tonight. Multiple convectively augmented mid-level vorticity maxima will move generally east-northeastward across the central Plains into the mid MS and OH Valleys. At the surface, a cold front extends from the OH Valley southwestward to the southern Plains. Weak lee cyclogenesis is forecast to occur across the central High Plains through late this afternoon, and modest low-level moisture return is anticipated to the north of the front and east of a weak surface lee trough across parts of the northern/central Plains. ...Northern/Central Plains... Morning clouds and lingering convection across parts of the central Plains will hamper the development of instability today, especially with eastward extent into NE/KS. Even so, pockets of filtered daytime heating will occur across the northern/central High Plains along and east of the surface lee trough. With steepened mid-level lapse rates present over eastern CO/WY into western SD/NE, a narrow zone of moderate instability is forecast to be in place prior to robust convective initiation this afternoon. Initial development should occur along the length of the lee trough from parts of western NE into eastern CO. A somewhat separate area of convection may also develop from northeastern WY to the Black Hills, as large-scale ascent preceding the mid-level shortwave trough overspreads this region. Modest low-level east-southeasterly flow will quickly veer to westerly at mid/upper levels, with some strengthening and hodograph elongation. Corresponding strong deep-layer shear will support supercells initially, with attendant threat for large hail. Given relatively cool temperatures aloft and the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates, isolated very large hail greater than 2 inches in diameter appears possible. A small zone with favorable overlap of moderate instability, strong deep-layer shear, and sufficient low-level shear remains apparent over parts of the NE Panhandle into northwest NE. This area may have a locally greater threat for a couple of tornadoes with any supercells that can persist late this afternoon into the early evening, assuming the boundary layer does not become too well mixed. Otherwise, upscale growth/clustering appears probable this evening as convective outflows aggregate into the central Plains. Severe/damaging winds should become the main threat as this occurs, with isolated significant gusts up to 75 mph possible if a more consolidated bow/MCS can develop. Confidence in this occurring still remains somewhat low, but the best chance for a more concentrated corridor of severe winds remains across parts of eastern CO into southwest NE and northwest KS this evening. ...Ozarks to the Ohio Valley... A rather moist low-level airmass remains present along/south of the front today, with surface dewpoints generally in the low to mid 70s, and precipitable water values around 1.75-2.2 inches. A fair amount of convective cloud debris is present along/near the front across the mid MS Valley. This will tend to slow diurnal destabilization to some extent across this area. Mid-level lapse rates are also expected to remain poor. Still, moderate to locally strong instability and steepened low-level lapse rates are forecast to develop through peak afternoon heating along/south of the front, which will extend from the Ozarks northeastward into parts of the OH Valley. Low-level winds are expected to remain generally weak, but a modest increase in southwesterly winds at mid levels should foster sufficient deep-layer shear to support some updraft organization. Mainly multicell clusters should develop this afternoon, focused along the front. Some of this activity may produce scattered damaging winds through early evening before eventually weakening. Morning guidance shows a greater concentration of thunderstorms with clustering potential across the Ozarks into the mid MS Valley. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...AND THE OZARKS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms appear possible through evening across parts of the northern/central High Plains, and from the Ozarks into the Ohio Valley. The most favorable corridor for isolated very large hail and significant severe wind gusts is centered on the central High Plains. ...20z Update... Severe probabilities remain unchanged from the previous outlook. Severe storms are possible into this evening from portions of the central High Plains to the Ozarks and lower Ohio Valley. See Severe Thunderstorm Watch 501 and MCD 1520 regarding short term discussions on severe potential in the central High Plains, MCD 1522 for the northern High Plains, and MCD 1521 for the Ozarks vicinity. ..Leitman.. 07/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper trough will continue moving eastward across Ontario and the Great Lakes today, while an upper high remains centered over the Southeast. Farther west, a separate mid-level shortwave trough will advance east-southeastward from the northern Rockies to the northern/central High Plains through tonight. Multiple convectively augmented mid-level vorticity maxima will move generally east-northeastward across the central Plains into the mid MS and OH Valleys. At the surface, a cold front extends from the OH Valley southwestward to the southern Plains. Weak lee cyclogenesis is forecast to occur across the central High Plains through late this afternoon, and modest low-level moisture return is anticipated to the north of the front and east of a weak surface lee trough across parts of the northern/central Plains. ...Northern/Central Plains... Morning clouds and lingering convection across parts of the central Plains will hamper the development of instability today, especially with eastward extent into NE/KS. Even so, pockets of filtered daytime heating will occur across the northern/central High Plains along and east of the surface lee trough. With steepened mid-level lapse rates present over eastern CO/WY into western SD/NE, a narrow zone of moderate instability is forecast to be in place prior to robust convective initiation this afternoon. Initial development should occur along the length of the lee trough from parts of western NE into eastern CO. A somewhat separate area of convection may also develop from northeastern WY to the Black Hills, as large-scale ascent preceding the mid-level shortwave trough overspreads this region. Modest low-level east-southeasterly flow will quickly veer to westerly at mid/upper levels, with some strengthening and hodograph elongation. Corresponding strong deep-layer shear will support supercells initially, with attendant threat for large hail. Given relatively cool temperatures aloft and the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates, isolated very large hail greater than 2 inches in diameter appears possible. A small zone with favorable overlap of moderate instability, strong deep-layer shear, and sufficient low-level shear remains apparent over parts of the NE Panhandle into northwest NE. This area may have a locally greater threat for a couple of tornadoes with any supercells that can persist late this afternoon into the early evening, assuming the boundary layer does not become too well mixed. Otherwise, upscale growth/clustering appears probable this evening as convective outflows aggregate into the central Plains. Severe/damaging winds should become the main threat as this occurs, with isolated significant gusts up to 75 mph possible if a more consolidated bow/MCS can develop. Confidence in this occurring still remains somewhat low, but the best chance for a more concentrated corridor of severe winds remains across parts of eastern CO into southwest NE and northwest KS this evening. ...Ozarks to the Ohio Valley... A rather moist low-level airmass remains present along/south of the front today, with surface dewpoints generally in the low to mid 70s, and precipitable water values around 1.75-2.2 inches. A fair amount of convective cloud debris is present along/near the front across the mid MS Valley. This will tend to slow diurnal destabilization to some extent across this area. Mid-level lapse rates are also expected to remain poor. Still, moderate to locally strong instability and steepened low-level lapse rates are forecast to develop through peak afternoon heating along/south of the front, which will extend from the Ozarks northeastward into parts of the OH Valley. Low-level winds are expected to remain generally weak, but a modest increase in southwesterly winds at mid levels should foster sufficient deep-layer shear to support some updraft organization. Mainly multicell clusters should develop this afternoon, focused along the front. Some of this activity may produce scattered damaging winds through early evening before eventually weakening. Morning guidance shows a greater concentration of thunderstorms with clustering potential across the Ozarks into the mid MS Valley. Read more

MD 1520 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR NEBRASKA PANHANDLE INTO NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA...SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA...AND FAR NORTHEAST COLORADO
Mesoscale Discussion 1520 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 PM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024 Areas affected...Nebraska Panhandle into northwest/north-central Nebraska...southern South Dakota...and far northeast Colorado Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 031802Z - 031930Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Supercells capable of damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes likely to develop through the afternoon. DISCUSSION...Visible satellite shows an increase in cu development across the southwestern Nebraska Panhandle over the last hour. The environment across northeastern Colorado into the Nebraska Panhandle is characterized by temperatures in the upper 70s to 80s with dew points in the mid 50s to low 60s. Mesoanalysis indicates MLCAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg extending from northeastern Colorado into the Nebraska Panhandle along and east of a surface trough. Deep layer shear around 35-40 kts increases near a boundary located across northern Nebraska. CAM guidance has shown a signal for development of multiple supercells across the southwestern Nebraska Panhandle around 18-20z, with a few cells now on radar farther north near the NE/SD border, tracking into the slightly better moisture to the north and east. Initially, the main threats will likely be damaging winds and large hail given sufficient shear and steep mid-level lapse rates. As cells mature, potential for a tornado or two will be possible. A watch will likely be needed to cover this potential this afternoon. ..Thornton/Gleason.. 07/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FSD...LBF...UNR...BOU...CYS... LAT...LON 41220092 41120146 40750252 40690336 40800367 41150370 42590320 43220276 43360193 43540095 43409968 43349951 42909937 42409948 41869955 41389984 41300017 41220092 Read more

MD 1519 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR FAR SOUTHEAST IL...NORTHERN/WESTERN KY...SOUTHERN IN...SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL OH
Mesoscale Discussion 1519 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1146 AM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024 Areas affected...Far Southeast IL...Northern/Western KY...Southern IN...Southwest/Central OH Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 031646Z - 031915Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms coverage is expected to increase across the OH Valley this afternoon. Damaging gusts are possible with any water-loaded downbursts or short-duration bowing segments, but the disorganized convective mode could limit the need for a watch. DISCUSSION...Surface temperatures have already climbed into the mid 80s within a fairly narrow corridor ahead of the approaching cold front but west of the influence of the East Coast ridging (roughly from southeast IL northeastward along the OH River vicinity into western OH). Dewpoints are in the low 70s within this corridor, and the resulting warm and moist conditions are promoting quick airmass destabilization despite generally pool mid-level lapse rates. This destabilization is evidenced by cumulus development throughout much of the region. Relatively warm temperatures aloft and poor lapse rates combined with boundary-layer mixing will likely temper the overall instability, with MLCAPE expected to remain around 1000 J/kg areawide. Given that the stronger mid-level flow is displaced north of the region, vertical shear will be modest as well, with 0-6 km bulk shear around 25 to 30 kt. General expectation is for thunderstorm coverage to increase this afternoon within this corridor ahead of the front, with a multicellular mode dominating. Primary severe risk is forecast to be damaging gusts attendant to wet downbursts. There is some chance for bowing segments in areas where storm development occurs in close proximity and cold pools are able to amalgamate. Damaging gusts would be possible with these forward propagating segments as well. Convective trends will be monitored, but with a disorganized multicellular mode anticipated, a watch is not likely. ..Mosier/Gleason.. 07/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CLE...JKL...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...PAH...ILX... LAT...LON 39018760 40918367 40658237 39138283 37548541 36648847 37968877 39018760 Read more