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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 PM CDT Thu Jul 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...Northwest and northern Great Basin... Confidence has increased that a period of gusty winds (15-20 mph) could develop across portions of the southern and western Snake River Valley in ID. Concurrent with very warm temperatures and low RH below 15%, several hours of elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions appear likely atop dry fuels. A small Elevated area has been added to better represent the risk for near-critical fire-weather concerns Friday afternoon and evening. Similarly across the lee of the Cascades and parts of the western Columbia Basin, increasing mid-level flow will foster periodically stronger downslope winds Friday afternoon and evening. Gusts of 15-20 mph may briefly overlap with RH below 20%. However, the strongest winds aloft are likely to be overnight and poorly timed with the lowest RH. While a few hours of dry and breezy conditions appear possible, the lack of greater overlap should keep the fire-weather threat localized. ..Lyons.. 07/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Thu Jul 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... Similar conditions present over the Interior West today should also occur again for tomorrow (Friday). A mid-level trough will remain in place over the Plains/Mississippi Valley areas as a mid-level anticyclone meanders along the West Coast. Widespread dry conditions (i.e. 10-20 percent RH) should be prevalent by afternoon from the Pacific Northwest to the Desert Southwest. Still, sustained surface winds should remain below 15 mph on the large scale, though terrain-favoring areas may experience localized Elevated conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 PM CDT Thu Jul 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...Northwest and northern Great Basin... Confidence has increased that a period of gusty winds (15-20 mph) could develop across portions of the southern and western Snake River Valley in ID. Concurrent with very warm temperatures and low RH below 15%, several hours of elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions appear likely atop dry fuels. A small Elevated area has been added to better represent the risk for near-critical fire-weather concerns Friday afternoon and evening. Similarly across the lee of the Cascades and parts of the western Columbia Basin, increasing mid-level flow will foster periodically stronger downslope winds Friday afternoon and evening. Gusts of 15-20 mph may briefly overlap with RH below 20%. However, the strongest winds aloft are likely to be overnight and poorly timed with the lowest RH. While a few hours of dry and breezy conditions appear possible, the lack of greater overlap should keep the fire-weather threat localized. ..Lyons.. 07/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Thu Jul 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... Similar conditions present over the Interior West today should also occur again for tomorrow (Friday). A mid-level trough will remain in place over the Plains/Mississippi Valley areas as a mid-level anticyclone meanders along the West Coast. Widespread dry conditions (i.e. 10-20 percent RH) should be prevalent by afternoon from the Pacific Northwest to the Desert Southwest. Still, sustained surface winds should remain below 15 mph on the large scale, though terrain-favoring areas may experience localized Elevated conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 PM CDT Thu Jul 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...Northwest and northern Great Basin... Confidence has increased that a period of gusty winds (15-20 mph) could develop across portions of the southern and western Snake River Valley in ID. Concurrent with very warm temperatures and low RH below 15%, several hours of elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions appear likely atop dry fuels. A small Elevated area has been added to better represent the risk for near-critical fire-weather concerns Friday afternoon and evening. Similarly across the lee of the Cascades and parts of the western Columbia Basin, increasing mid-level flow will foster periodically stronger downslope winds Friday afternoon and evening. Gusts of 15-20 mph may briefly overlap with RH below 20%. However, the strongest winds aloft are likely to be overnight and poorly timed with the lowest RH. While a few hours of dry and breezy conditions appear possible, the lack of greater overlap should keep the fire-weather threat localized. ..Lyons.. 07/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Thu Jul 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... Similar conditions present over the Interior West today should also occur again for tomorrow (Friday). A mid-level trough will remain in place over the Plains/Mississippi Valley areas as a mid-level anticyclone meanders along the West Coast. Widespread dry conditions (i.e. 10-20 percent RH) should be prevalent by afternoon from the Pacific Northwest to the Desert Southwest. Still, sustained surface winds should remain below 15 mph on the large scale, though terrain-favoring areas may experience localized Elevated conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 PM CDT Thu Jul 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...Northwest and northern Great Basin... Confidence has increased that a period of gusty winds (15-20 mph) could develop across portions of the southern and western Snake River Valley in ID. Concurrent with very warm temperatures and low RH below 15%, several hours of elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions appear likely atop dry fuels. A small Elevated area has been added to better represent the risk for near-critical fire-weather concerns Friday afternoon and evening. Similarly across the lee of the Cascades and parts of the western Columbia Basin, increasing mid-level flow will foster periodically stronger downslope winds Friday afternoon and evening. Gusts of 15-20 mph may briefly overlap with RH below 20%. However, the strongest winds aloft are likely to be overnight and poorly timed with the lowest RH. While a few hours of dry and breezy conditions appear possible, the lack of greater overlap should keep the fire-weather threat localized. ..Lyons.. 07/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Thu Jul 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... Similar conditions present over the Interior West today should also occur again for tomorrow (Friday). A mid-level trough will remain in place over the Plains/Mississippi Valley areas as a mid-level anticyclone meanders along the West Coast. Widespread dry conditions (i.e. 10-20 percent RH) should be prevalent by afternoon from the Pacific Northwest to the Desert Southwest. Still, sustained surface winds should remain below 15 mph on the large scale, though terrain-favoring areas may experience localized Elevated conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 PM CDT Thu Jul 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...Northwest and northern Great Basin... Confidence has increased that a period of gusty winds (15-20 mph) could develop across portions of the southern and western Snake River Valley in ID. Concurrent with very warm temperatures and low RH below 15%, several hours of elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions appear likely atop dry fuels. A small Elevated area has been added to better represent the risk for near-critical fire-weather concerns Friday afternoon and evening. Similarly across the lee of the Cascades and parts of the western Columbia Basin, increasing mid-level flow will foster periodically stronger downslope winds Friday afternoon and evening. Gusts of 15-20 mph may briefly overlap with RH below 20%. However, the strongest winds aloft are likely to be overnight and poorly timed with the lowest RH. While a few hours of dry and breezy conditions appear possible, the lack of greater overlap should keep the fire-weather threat localized. ..Lyons.. 07/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Thu Jul 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... Similar conditions present over the Interior West today should also occur again for tomorrow (Friday). A mid-level trough will remain in place over the Plains/Mississippi Valley areas as a mid-level anticyclone meanders along the West Coast. Widespread dry conditions (i.e. 10-20 percent RH) should be prevalent by afternoon from the Pacific Northwest to the Desert Southwest. Still, sustained surface winds should remain below 15 mph on the large scale, though terrain-favoring areas may experience localized Elevated conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0505 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 505 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E OWB TO 35 SW SDF TO 10 E SDF TO 15 W LUK. ..MOORE..07/04/24 ATTN...WFO...LMK...JKL...ILN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 505 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC005-011-017-021-023-025-029-049-063-065-067-069-073-077-079- 081-085-093-097-103-109-113-123-129-135-151-153-155-161-165-167- 173-175-179-181-183-185-187-189-191-197-201-205-209-211-215-229- 237-239-041940- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON BATH BOURBON BOYLE BRACKEN BREATHITT BULLITT CLARK ELLIOTT ESTILL FAYETTE FLEMING FRANKLIN GALLATIN GARRARD GRANT GRAYSON HARDIN HARRISON HENRY JACKSON JESSAMINE LARUE LEE LEWIS MADISON MAGOFFIN MARION MASON MENIFEE MERCER MONTGOMERY MORGAN NELSON NICHOLAS OHIO OLDHAM OWEN OWSLEY PENDLETON POWELL ROBERTSON ROWAN SCOTT SHELBY SPENCER WASHINGTON WOLFE WOODFORD Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 041743
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Thu Jul 4 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly
formed Tropical Depression One-E, located a couple of hundred miles
offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Depression One-E are issued under WMO
header WTPZ31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP1.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression One-E are issued under
WMO header WTPZ21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP1.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM CDT Thu Jul 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM LOWER MICHIGAN INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND WESTERN/CENTRAL NEW YORK...AS WELL AS NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from Lower Michigan into the Ohio Valley, Central Appalachians and western/central New York. Additional isolated strong storms are possible across northeast New Mexico. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will be centered over the upper Great Lakes/central U.S. Friday morning. This feature will slowly pivot east through the period, with a couple of embedded convectively enhanced vorticity maxima/lead shortwave impulse migrates through southwesterly flow over parts of the Upper OH Valley/Central Appalachians into western/central NY. At the surface, a very moist airmass will be in place ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front. The front is forecast to extend from Lake Michigan south/southwest into central/southern AR/OK and northwest TX/eastern NM during the morning. Some showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing across parts of the OH Valley in a modest warm advection regime and as a continuation of convection expected in the Day 1/Thu overnight period. Some guidance suggests an MCV related to this activity may float east across parts of the adjacent Appalachians through the afternoon. This general pattern should support at least isolated/sporadic organized thunderstorms capable of mainly strong/locally damaging gusts. Further west, thunderstorms also will be possible across eastern NM in a post-frontal upslope flow regime and eastward into portions of central TX along the southward sagging cold front. ...Lower MI... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon as a seasonally moist airmass destabilizes in the vicinity of a surface low/triple point and within the cold core of the upper trough. While instability will remain modest (less than 1000 J/kg MLCAPE), vertical shear will support transient organized cells/small line segments. Cool temperatures aloft and elongated forecast hodographs suggest marginal hail to near 1 inch diameter will be possible with any more intense/organized updrafts. Occasional strong gusts also are possible. ...OH Valley/Central Appalachians into western/central NY... Areas of ongoing convection and general cloudiness are expected across the region. However, a very moist airmass will be in place and even modest heating will allow for moderate destabilization (MLCAPE 1500-2000 J/kg). Vertical shear will be strongest with northward extent closer to the midlevel jet max oriented from OH into NY. However, forecast guidance suggest a convectively enhanced vorticity max over KY may drift east across the central Appalachians, providing some enhancement to shear across this area. Shear should be sufficient for at least transient organized cells/clusters amid a high PW environment. Thunderstorms across the region will mainly pose a risk for strong/locally damaging gusts during the afternoon/evening. Some uncertainty exists regarding eastward extent of damaging wind potential as vertical shear weakens into the VA Piedmont/Chesapeake Bay vicinity. Severe probabilities may need to be adjusted eastward in subsequent outlooks if confidence increases in storm coverage or maintenance of an eastward propagating cluster east of the mountains. ...Northeast NM... Modest boundary-layer moisture will be maintained in a post-frontal upslope flow regime Friday afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms will develop over the higher terrain near the Raton Mesa vicinity. Cool temperatures aloft and midlevel lapse rates near 7.5-8 C/km will support modest instability, while vertically veering wind profiles will be sufficient for around 30-35 kt effective shear magnitudes. A couple of strong/severe storms producing hail and strong gusts will be possible during the afternoon/early evening. ...OK/TX into the Southeast... Thunderstorm clusters are expected along the southward sagging cold front across portions of OK/TX eastward into TN Valley vicinity. Vertical shear will be weak and lapse rates poor. However, a very moist/high PW airmass will be in place amid 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Locally gusty winds may accompany thunderstorms, but organized severe potential appears low. ..Leitman.. 07/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM CDT Thu Jul 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM LOWER MICHIGAN INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND WESTERN/CENTRAL NEW YORK...AS WELL AS NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from Lower Michigan into the Ohio Valley, Central Appalachians and western/central New York. Additional isolated strong storms are possible across northeast New Mexico. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will be centered over the upper Great Lakes/central U.S. Friday morning. This feature will slowly pivot east through the period, with a couple of embedded convectively enhanced vorticity maxima/lead shortwave impulse migrates through southwesterly flow over parts of the Upper OH Valley/Central Appalachians into western/central NY. At the surface, a very moist airmass will be in place ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front. The front is forecast to extend from Lake Michigan south/southwest into central/southern AR/OK and northwest TX/eastern NM during the morning. Some showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing across parts of the OH Valley in a modest warm advection regime and as a continuation of convection expected in the Day 1/Thu overnight period. Some guidance suggests an MCV related to this activity may float east across parts of the adjacent Appalachians through the afternoon. This general pattern should support at least isolated/sporadic organized thunderstorms capable of mainly strong/locally damaging gusts. Further west, thunderstorms also will be possible across eastern NM in a post-frontal upslope flow regime and eastward into portions of central TX along the southward sagging cold front. ...Lower MI... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon as a seasonally moist airmass destabilizes in the vicinity of a surface low/triple point and within the cold core of the upper trough. While instability will remain modest (less than 1000 J/kg MLCAPE), vertical shear will support transient organized cells/small line segments. Cool temperatures aloft and elongated forecast hodographs suggest marginal hail to near 1 inch diameter will be possible with any more intense/organized updrafts. Occasional strong gusts also are possible. ...OH Valley/Central Appalachians into western/central NY... Areas of ongoing convection and general cloudiness are expected across the region. However, a very moist airmass will be in place and even modest heating will allow for moderate destabilization (MLCAPE 1500-2000 J/kg). Vertical shear will be strongest with northward extent closer to the midlevel jet max oriented from OH into NY. However, forecast guidance suggest a convectively enhanced vorticity max over KY may drift east across the central Appalachians, providing some enhancement to shear across this area. Shear should be sufficient for at least transient organized cells/clusters amid a high PW environment. Thunderstorms across the region will mainly pose a risk for strong/locally damaging gusts during the afternoon/evening. Some uncertainty exists regarding eastward extent of damaging wind potential as vertical shear weakens into the VA Piedmont/Chesapeake Bay vicinity. Severe probabilities may need to be adjusted eastward in subsequent outlooks if confidence increases in storm coverage or maintenance of an eastward propagating cluster east of the mountains. ...Northeast NM... Modest boundary-layer moisture will be maintained in a post-frontal upslope flow regime Friday afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms will develop over the higher terrain near the Raton Mesa vicinity. Cool temperatures aloft and midlevel lapse rates near 7.5-8 C/km will support modest instability, while vertically veering wind profiles will be sufficient for around 30-35 kt effective shear magnitudes. A couple of strong/severe storms producing hail and strong gusts will be possible during the afternoon/early evening. ...OK/TX into the Southeast... Thunderstorm clusters are expected along the southward sagging cold front across portions of OK/TX eastward into TN Valley vicinity. Vertical shear will be weak and lapse rates poor. However, a very moist/high PW airmass will be in place amid 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Locally gusty winds may accompany thunderstorms, but organized severe potential appears low. ..Leitman.. 07/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM CDT Thu Jul 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM LOWER MICHIGAN INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND WESTERN/CENTRAL NEW YORK...AS WELL AS NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from Lower Michigan into the Ohio Valley, Central Appalachians and western/central New York. Additional isolated strong storms are possible across northeast New Mexico. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will be centered over the upper Great Lakes/central U.S. Friday morning. This feature will slowly pivot east through the period, with a couple of embedded convectively enhanced vorticity maxima/lead shortwave impulse migrates through southwesterly flow over parts of the Upper OH Valley/Central Appalachians into western/central NY. At the surface, a very moist airmass will be in place ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front. The front is forecast to extend from Lake Michigan south/southwest into central/southern AR/OK and northwest TX/eastern NM during the morning. Some showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing across parts of the OH Valley in a modest warm advection regime and as a continuation of convection expected in the Day 1/Thu overnight period. Some guidance suggests an MCV related to this activity may float east across parts of the adjacent Appalachians through the afternoon. This general pattern should support at least isolated/sporadic organized thunderstorms capable of mainly strong/locally damaging gusts. Further west, thunderstorms also will be possible across eastern NM in a post-frontal upslope flow regime and eastward into portions of central TX along the southward sagging cold front. ...Lower MI... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon as a seasonally moist airmass destabilizes in the vicinity of a surface low/triple point and within the cold core of the upper trough. While instability will remain modest (less than 1000 J/kg MLCAPE), vertical shear will support transient organized cells/small line segments. Cool temperatures aloft and elongated forecast hodographs suggest marginal hail to near 1 inch diameter will be possible with any more intense/organized updrafts. Occasional strong gusts also are possible. ...OH Valley/Central Appalachians into western/central NY... Areas of ongoing convection and general cloudiness are expected across the region. However, a very moist airmass will be in place and even modest heating will allow for moderate destabilization (MLCAPE 1500-2000 J/kg). Vertical shear will be strongest with northward extent closer to the midlevel jet max oriented from OH into NY. However, forecast guidance suggest a convectively enhanced vorticity max over KY may drift east across the central Appalachians, providing some enhancement to shear across this area. Shear should be sufficient for at least transient organized cells/clusters amid a high PW environment. Thunderstorms across the region will mainly pose a risk for strong/locally damaging gusts during the afternoon/evening. Some uncertainty exists regarding eastward extent of damaging wind potential as vertical shear weakens into the VA Piedmont/Chesapeake Bay vicinity. Severe probabilities may need to be adjusted eastward in subsequent outlooks if confidence increases in storm coverage or maintenance of an eastward propagating cluster east of the mountains. ...Northeast NM... Modest boundary-layer moisture will be maintained in a post-frontal upslope flow regime Friday afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms will develop over the higher terrain near the Raton Mesa vicinity. Cool temperatures aloft and midlevel lapse rates near 7.5-8 C/km will support modest instability, while vertically veering wind profiles will be sufficient for around 30-35 kt effective shear magnitudes. A couple of strong/severe storms producing hail and strong gusts will be possible during the afternoon/early evening. ...OK/TX into the Southeast... Thunderstorm clusters are expected along the southward sagging cold front across portions of OK/TX eastward into TN Valley vicinity. Vertical shear will be weak and lapse rates poor. However, a very moist/high PW airmass will be in place amid 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Locally gusty winds may accompany thunderstorms, but organized severe potential appears low. ..Leitman.. 07/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM CDT Thu Jul 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM LOWER MICHIGAN INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND WESTERN/CENTRAL NEW YORK...AS WELL AS NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from Lower Michigan into the Ohio Valley, Central Appalachians and western/central New York. Additional isolated strong storms are possible across northeast New Mexico. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will be centered over the upper Great Lakes/central U.S. Friday morning. This feature will slowly pivot east through the period, with a couple of embedded convectively enhanced vorticity maxima/lead shortwave impulse migrates through southwesterly flow over parts of the Upper OH Valley/Central Appalachians into western/central NY. At the surface, a very moist airmass will be in place ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front. The front is forecast to extend from Lake Michigan south/southwest into central/southern AR/OK and northwest TX/eastern NM during the morning. Some showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing across parts of the OH Valley in a modest warm advection regime and as a continuation of convection expected in the Day 1/Thu overnight period. Some guidance suggests an MCV related to this activity may float east across parts of the adjacent Appalachians through the afternoon. This general pattern should support at least isolated/sporadic organized thunderstorms capable of mainly strong/locally damaging gusts. Further west, thunderstorms also will be possible across eastern NM in a post-frontal upslope flow regime and eastward into portions of central TX along the southward sagging cold front. ...Lower MI... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon as a seasonally moist airmass destabilizes in the vicinity of a surface low/triple point and within the cold core of the upper trough. While instability will remain modest (less than 1000 J/kg MLCAPE), vertical shear will support transient organized cells/small line segments. Cool temperatures aloft and elongated forecast hodographs suggest marginal hail to near 1 inch diameter will be possible with any more intense/organized updrafts. Occasional strong gusts also are possible. ...OH Valley/Central Appalachians into western/central NY... Areas of ongoing convection and general cloudiness are expected across the region. However, a very moist airmass will be in place and even modest heating will allow for moderate destabilization (MLCAPE 1500-2000 J/kg). Vertical shear will be strongest with northward extent closer to the midlevel jet max oriented from OH into NY. However, forecast guidance suggest a convectively enhanced vorticity max over KY may drift east across the central Appalachians, providing some enhancement to shear across this area. Shear should be sufficient for at least transient organized cells/clusters amid a high PW environment. Thunderstorms across the region will mainly pose a risk for strong/locally damaging gusts during the afternoon/evening. Some uncertainty exists regarding eastward extent of damaging wind potential as vertical shear weakens into the VA Piedmont/Chesapeake Bay vicinity. Severe probabilities may need to be adjusted eastward in subsequent outlooks if confidence increases in storm coverage or maintenance of an eastward propagating cluster east of the mountains. ...Northeast NM... Modest boundary-layer moisture will be maintained in a post-frontal upslope flow regime Friday afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms will develop over the higher terrain near the Raton Mesa vicinity. Cool temperatures aloft and midlevel lapse rates near 7.5-8 C/km will support modest instability, while vertically veering wind profiles will be sufficient for around 30-35 kt effective shear magnitudes. A couple of strong/severe storms producing hail and strong gusts will be possible during the afternoon/early evening. ...OK/TX into the Southeast... Thunderstorm clusters are expected along the southward sagging cold front across portions of OK/TX eastward into TN Valley vicinity. Vertical shear will be weak and lapse rates poor. However, a very moist/high PW airmass will be in place amid 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Locally gusty winds may accompany thunderstorms, but organized severe potential appears low. ..Leitman.. 07/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM CDT Thu Jul 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM LOWER MICHIGAN INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND WESTERN/CENTRAL NEW YORK...AS WELL AS NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from Lower Michigan into the Ohio Valley, Central Appalachians and western/central New York. Additional isolated strong storms are possible across northeast New Mexico. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will be centered over the upper Great Lakes/central U.S. Friday morning. This feature will slowly pivot east through the period, with a couple of embedded convectively enhanced vorticity maxima/lead shortwave impulse migrates through southwesterly flow over parts of the Upper OH Valley/Central Appalachians into western/central NY. At the surface, a very moist airmass will be in place ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front. The front is forecast to extend from Lake Michigan south/southwest into central/southern AR/OK and northwest TX/eastern NM during the morning. Some showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing across parts of the OH Valley in a modest warm advection regime and as a continuation of convection expected in the Day 1/Thu overnight period. Some guidance suggests an MCV related to this activity may float east across parts of the adjacent Appalachians through the afternoon. This general pattern should support at least isolated/sporadic organized thunderstorms capable of mainly strong/locally damaging gusts. Further west, thunderstorms also will be possible across eastern NM in a post-frontal upslope flow regime and eastward into portions of central TX along the southward sagging cold front. ...Lower MI... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon as a seasonally moist airmass destabilizes in the vicinity of a surface low/triple point and within the cold core of the upper trough. While instability will remain modest (less than 1000 J/kg MLCAPE), vertical shear will support transient organized cells/small line segments. Cool temperatures aloft and elongated forecast hodographs suggest marginal hail to near 1 inch diameter will be possible with any more intense/organized updrafts. Occasional strong gusts also are possible. ...OH Valley/Central Appalachians into western/central NY... Areas of ongoing convection and general cloudiness are expected across the region. However, a very moist airmass will be in place and even modest heating will allow for moderate destabilization (MLCAPE 1500-2000 J/kg). Vertical shear will be strongest with northward extent closer to the midlevel jet max oriented from OH into NY. However, forecast guidance suggest a convectively enhanced vorticity max over KY may drift east across the central Appalachians, providing some enhancement to shear across this area. Shear should be sufficient for at least transient organized cells/clusters amid a high PW environment. Thunderstorms across the region will mainly pose a risk for strong/locally damaging gusts during the afternoon/evening. Some uncertainty exists regarding eastward extent of damaging wind potential as vertical shear weakens into the VA Piedmont/Chesapeake Bay vicinity. Severe probabilities may need to be adjusted eastward in subsequent outlooks if confidence increases in storm coverage or maintenance of an eastward propagating cluster east of the mountains. ...Northeast NM... Modest boundary-layer moisture will be maintained in a post-frontal upslope flow regime Friday afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms will develop over the higher terrain near the Raton Mesa vicinity. Cool temperatures aloft and midlevel lapse rates near 7.5-8 C/km will support modest instability, while vertically veering wind profiles will be sufficient for around 30-35 kt effective shear magnitudes. A couple of strong/severe storms producing hail and strong gusts will be possible during the afternoon/early evening. ...OK/TX into the Southeast... Thunderstorm clusters are expected along the southward sagging cold front across portions of OK/TX eastward into TN Valley vicinity. Vertical shear will be weak and lapse rates poor. However, a very moist/high PW airmass will be in place amid 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Locally gusty winds may accompany thunderstorms, but organized severe potential appears low. ..Leitman.. 07/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM CDT Thu Jul 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM LOWER MICHIGAN INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND WESTERN/CENTRAL NEW YORK...AS WELL AS NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from Lower Michigan into the Ohio Valley, Central Appalachians and western/central New York. Additional isolated strong storms are possible across northeast New Mexico. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will be centered over the upper Great Lakes/central U.S. Friday morning. This feature will slowly pivot east through the period, with a couple of embedded convectively enhanced vorticity maxima/lead shortwave impulse migrates through southwesterly flow over parts of the Upper OH Valley/Central Appalachians into western/central NY. At the surface, a very moist airmass will be in place ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front. The front is forecast to extend from Lake Michigan south/southwest into central/southern AR/OK and northwest TX/eastern NM during the morning. Some showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing across parts of the OH Valley in a modest warm advection regime and as a continuation of convection expected in the Day 1/Thu overnight period. Some guidance suggests an MCV related to this activity may float east across parts of the adjacent Appalachians through the afternoon. This general pattern should support at least isolated/sporadic organized thunderstorms capable of mainly strong/locally damaging gusts. Further west, thunderstorms also will be possible across eastern NM in a post-frontal upslope flow regime and eastward into portions of central TX along the southward sagging cold front. ...Lower MI... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon as a seasonally moist airmass destabilizes in the vicinity of a surface low/triple point and within the cold core of the upper trough. While instability will remain modest (less than 1000 J/kg MLCAPE), vertical shear will support transient organized cells/small line segments. Cool temperatures aloft and elongated forecast hodographs suggest marginal hail to near 1 inch diameter will be possible with any more intense/organized updrafts. Occasional strong gusts also are possible. ...OH Valley/Central Appalachians into western/central NY... Areas of ongoing convection and general cloudiness are expected across the region. However, a very moist airmass will be in place and even modest heating will allow for moderate destabilization (MLCAPE 1500-2000 J/kg). Vertical shear will be strongest with northward extent closer to the midlevel jet max oriented from OH into NY. However, forecast guidance suggest a convectively enhanced vorticity max over KY may drift east across the central Appalachians, providing some enhancement to shear across this area. Shear should be sufficient for at least transient organized cells/clusters amid a high PW environment. Thunderstorms across the region will mainly pose a risk for strong/locally damaging gusts during the afternoon/evening. Some uncertainty exists regarding eastward extent of damaging wind potential as vertical shear weakens into the VA Piedmont/Chesapeake Bay vicinity. Severe probabilities may need to be adjusted eastward in subsequent outlooks if confidence increases in storm coverage or maintenance of an eastward propagating cluster east of the mountains. ...Northeast NM... Modest boundary-layer moisture will be maintained in a post-frontal upslope flow regime Friday afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms will develop over the higher terrain near the Raton Mesa vicinity. Cool temperatures aloft and midlevel lapse rates near 7.5-8 C/km will support modest instability, while vertically veering wind profiles will be sufficient for around 30-35 kt effective shear magnitudes. A couple of strong/severe storms producing hail and strong gusts will be possible during the afternoon/early evening. ...OK/TX into the Southeast... Thunderstorm clusters are expected along the southward sagging cold front across portions of OK/TX eastward into TN Valley vicinity. Vertical shear will be weak and lapse rates poor. However, a very moist/high PW airmass will be in place amid 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Locally gusty winds may accompany thunderstorms, but organized severe potential appears low. ..Leitman.. 07/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM CDT Thu Jul 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM LOWER MICHIGAN INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND WESTERN/CENTRAL NEW YORK...AS WELL AS NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from Lower Michigan into the Ohio Valley, Central Appalachians and western/central New York. Additional isolated strong storms are possible across northeast New Mexico. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will be centered over the upper Great Lakes/central U.S. Friday morning. This feature will slowly pivot east through the period, with a couple of embedded convectively enhanced vorticity maxima/lead shortwave impulse migrates through southwesterly flow over parts of the Upper OH Valley/Central Appalachians into western/central NY. At the surface, a very moist airmass will be in place ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front. The front is forecast to extend from Lake Michigan south/southwest into central/southern AR/OK and northwest TX/eastern NM during the morning. Some showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing across parts of the OH Valley in a modest warm advection regime and as a continuation of convection expected in the Day 1/Thu overnight period. Some guidance suggests an MCV related to this activity may float east across parts of the adjacent Appalachians through the afternoon. This general pattern should support at least isolated/sporadic organized thunderstorms capable of mainly strong/locally damaging gusts. Further west, thunderstorms also will be possible across eastern NM in a post-frontal upslope flow regime and eastward into portions of central TX along the southward sagging cold front. ...Lower MI... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon as a seasonally moist airmass destabilizes in the vicinity of a surface low/triple point and within the cold core of the upper trough. While instability will remain modest (less than 1000 J/kg MLCAPE), vertical shear will support transient organized cells/small line segments. Cool temperatures aloft and elongated forecast hodographs suggest marginal hail to near 1 inch diameter will be possible with any more intense/organized updrafts. Occasional strong gusts also are possible. ...OH Valley/Central Appalachians into western/central NY... Areas of ongoing convection and general cloudiness are expected across the region. However, a very moist airmass will be in place and even modest heating will allow for moderate destabilization (MLCAPE 1500-2000 J/kg). Vertical shear will be strongest with northward extent closer to the midlevel jet max oriented from OH into NY. However, forecast guidance suggest a convectively enhanced vorticity max over KY may drift east across the central Appalachians, providing some enhancement to shear across this area. Shear should be sufficient for at least transient organized cells/clusters amid a high PW environment. Thunderstorms across the region will mainly pose a risk for strong/locally damaging gusts during the afternoon/evening. Some uncertainty exists regarding eastward extent of damaging wind potential as vertical shear weakens into the VA Piedmont/Chesapeake Bay vicinity. Severe probabilities may need to be adjusted eastward in subsequent outlooks if confidence increases in storm coverage or maintenance of an eastward propagating cluster east of the mountains. ...Northeast NM... Modest boundary-layer moisture will be maintained in a post-frontal upslope flow regime Friday afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms will develop over the higher terrain near the Raton Mesa vicinity. Cool temperatures aloft and midlevel lapse rates near 7.5-8 C/km will support modest instability, while vertically veering wind profiles will be sufficient for around 30-35 kt effective shear magnitudes. A couple of strong/severe storms producing hail and strong gusts will be possible during the afternoon/early evening. ...OK/TX into the Southeast... Thunderstorm clusters are expected along the southward sagging cold front across portions of OK/TX eastward into TN Valley vicinity. Vertical shear will be weak and lapse rates poor. However, a very moist/high PW airmass will be in place amid 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Locally gusty winds may accompany thunderstorms, but organized severe potential appears low. ..Leitman.. 07/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM CDT Thu Jul 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM LOWER MICHIGAN INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND WESTERN/CENTRAL NEW YORK...AS WELL AS NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from Lower Michigan into the Ohio Valley, Central Appalachians and western/central New York. Additional isolated strong storms are possible across northeast New Mexico. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will be centered over the upper Great Lakes/central U.S. Friday morning. This feature will slowly pivot east through the period, with a couple of embedded convectively enhanced vorticity maxima/lead shortwave impulse migrates through southwesterly flow over parts of the Upper OH Valley/Central Appalachians into western/central NY. At the surface, a very moist airmass will be in place ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front. The front is forecast to extend from Lake Michigan south/southwest into central/southern AR/OK and northwest TX/eastern NM during the morning. Some showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing across parts of the OH Valley in a modest warm advection regime and as a continuation of convection expected in the Day 1/Thu overnight period. Some guidance suggests an MCV related to this activity may float east across parts of the adjacent Appalachians through the afternoon. This general pattern should support at least isolated/sporadic organized thunderstorms capable of mainly strong/locally damaging gusts. Further west, thunderstorms also will be possible across eastern NM in a post-frontal upslope flow regime and eastward into portions of central TX along the southward sagging cold front. ...Lower MI... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon as a seasonally moist airmass destabilizes in the vicinity of a surface low/triple point and within the cold core of the upper trough. While instability will remain modest (less than 1000 J/kg MLCAPE), vertical shear will support transient organized cells/small line segments. Cool temperatures aloft and elongated forecast hodographs suggest marginal hail to near 1 inch diameter will be possible with any more intense/organized updrafts. Occasional strong gusts also are possible. ...OH Valley/Central Appalachians into western/central NY... Areas of ongoing convection and general cloudiness are expected across the region. However, a very moist airmass will be in place and even modest heating will allow for moderate destabilization (MLCAPE 1500-2000 J/kg). Vertical shear will be strongest with northward extent closer to the midlevel jet max oriented from OH into NY. However, forecast guidance suggest a convectively enhanced vorticity max over KY may drift east across the central Appalachians, providing some enhancement to shear across this area. Shear should be sufficient for at least transient organized cells/clusters amid a high PW environment. Thunderstorms across the region will mainly pose a risk for strong/locally damaging gusts during the afternoon/evening. Some uncertainty exists regarding eastward extent of damaging wind potential as vertical shear weakens into the VA Piedmont/Chesapeake Bay vicinity. Severe probabilities may need to be adjusted eastward in subsequent outlooks if confidence increases in storm coverage or maintenance of an eastward propagating cluster east of the mountains. ...Northeast NM... Modest boundary-layer moisture will be maintained in a post-frontal upslope flow regime Friday afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms will develop over the higher terrain near the Raton Mesa vicinity. Cool temperatures aloft and midlevel lapse rates near 7.5-8 C/km will support modest instability, while vertically veering wind profiles will be sufficient for around 30-35 kt effective shear magnitudes. A couple of strong/severe storms producing hail and strong gusts will be possible during the afternoon/early evening. ...OK/TX into the Southeast... Thunderstorm clusters are expected along the southward sagging cold front across portions of OK/TX eastward into TN Valley vicinity. Vertical shear will be weak and lapse rates poor. However, a very moist/high PW airmass will be in place amid 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Locally gusty winds may accompany thunderstorms, but organized severe potential appears low. ..Leitman.. 07/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM CDT Thu Jul 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM LOWER MICHIGAN INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND WESTERN/CENTRAL NEW YORK...AS WELL AS NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from Lower Michigan into the Ohio Valley, Central Appalachians and western/central New York. Additional isolated strong storms are possible across northeast New Mexico. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will be centered over the upper Great Lakes/central U.S. Friday morning. This feature will slowly pivot east through the period, with a couple of embedded convectively enhanced vorticity maxima/lead shortwave impulse migrates through southwesterly flow over parts of the Upper OH Valley/Central Appalachians into western/central NY. At the surface, a very moist airmass will be in place ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front. The front is forecast to extend from Lake Michigan south/southwest into central/southern AR/OK and northwest TX/eastern NM during the morning. Some showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing across parts of the OH Valley in a modest warm advection regime and as a continuation of convection expected in the Day 1/Thu overnight period. Some guidance suggests an MCV related to this activity may float east across parts of the adjacent Appalachians through the afternoon. This general pattern should support at least isolated/sporadic organized thunderstorms capable of mainly strong/locally damaging gusts. Further west, thunderstorms also will be possible across eastern NM in a post-frontal upslope flow regime and eastward into portions of central TX along the southward sagging cold front. ...Lower MI... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon as a seasonally moist airmass destabilizes in the vicinity of a surface low/triple point and within the cold core of the upper trough. While instability will remain modest (less than 1000 J/kg MLCAPE), vertical shear will support transient organized cells/small line segments. Cool temperatures aloft and elongated forecast hodographs suggest marginal hail to near 1 inch diameter will be possible with any more intense/organized updrafts. Occasional strong gusts also are possible. ...OH Valley/Central Appalachians into western/central NY... Areas of ongoing convection and general cloudiness are expected across the region. However, a very moist airmass will be in place and even modest heating will allow for moderate destabilization (MLCAPE 1500-2000 J/kg). Vertical shear will be strongest with northward extent closer to the midlevel jet max oriented from OH into NY. However, forecast guidance suggest a convectively enhanced vorticity max over KY may drift east across the central Appalachians, providing some enhancement to shear across this area. Shear should be sufficient for at least transient organized cells/clusters amid a high PW environment. Thunderstorms across the region will mainly pose a risk for strong/locally damaging gusts during the afternoon/evening. Some uncertainty exists regarding eastward extent of damaging wind potential as vertical shear weakens into the VA Piedmont/Chesapeake Bay vicinity. Severe probabilities may need to be adjusted eastward in subsequent outlooks if confidence increases in storm coverage or maintenance of an eastward propagating cluster east of the mountains. ...Northeast NM... Modest boundary-layer moisture will be maintained in a post-frontal upslope flow regime Friday afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms will develop over the higher terrain near the Raton Mesa vicinity. Cool temperatures aloft and midlevel lapse rates near 7.5-8 C/km will support modest instability, while vertically veering wind profiles will be sufficient for around 30-35 kt effective shear magnitudes. A couple of strong/severe storms producing hail and strong gusts will be possible during the afternoon/early evening. ...OK/TX into the Southeast... Thunderstorm clusters are expected along the southward sagging cold front across portions of OK/TX eastward into TN Valley vicinity. Vertical shear will be weak and lapse rates poor. However, a very moist/high PW airmass will be in place amid 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Locally gusty winds may accompany thunderstorms, but organized severe potential appears low. ..Leitman.. 07/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM CDT Thu Jul 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM LOWER MICHIGAN INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND WESTERN/CENTRAL NEW YORK...AS WELL AS NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from Lower Michigan into the Ohio Valley, Central Appalachians and western/central New York. Additional isolated strong storms are possible across northeast New Mexico. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will be centered over the upper Great Lakes/central U.S. Friday morning. This feature will slowly pivot east through the period, with a couple of embedded convectively enhanced vorticity maxima/lead shortwave impulse migrates through southwesterly flow over parts of the Upper OH Valley/Central Appalachians into western/central NY. At the surface, a very moist airmass will be in place ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front. The front is forecast to extend from Lake Michigan south/southwest into central/southern AR/OK and northwest TX/eastern NM during the morning. Some showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing across parts of the OH Valley in a modest warm advection regime and as a continuation of convection expected in the Day 1/Thu overnight period. Some guidance suggests an MCV related to this activity may float east across parts of the adjacent Appalachians through the afternoon. This general pattern should support at least isolated/sporadic organized thunderstorms capable of mainly strong/locally damaging gusts. Further west, thunderstorms also will be possible across eastern NM in a post-frontal upslope flow regime and eastward into portions of central TX along the southward sagging cold front. ...Lower MI... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon as a seasonally moist airmass destabilizes in the vicinity of a surface low/triple point and within the cold core of the upper trough. While instability will remain modest (less than 1000 J/kg MLCAPE), vertical shear will support transient organized cells/small line segments. Cool temperatures aloft and elongated forecast hodographs suggest marginal hail to near 1 inch diameter will be possible with any more intense/organized updrafts. Occasional strong gusts also are possible. ...OH Valley/Central Appalachians into western/central NY... Areas of ongoing convection and general cloudiness are expected across the region. However, a very moist airmass will be in place and even modest heating will allow for moderate destabilization (MLCAPE 1500-2000 J/kg). Vertical shear will be strongest with northward extent closer to the midlevel jet max oriented from OH into NY. However, forecast guidance suggest a convectively enhanced vorticity max over KY may drift east across the central Appalachians, providing some enhancement to shear across this area. Shear should be sufficient for at least transient organized cells/clusters amid a high PW environment. Thunderstorms across the region will mainly pose a risk for strong/locally damaging gusts during the afternoon/evening. Some uncertainty exists regarding eastward extent of damaging wind potential as vertical shear weakens into the VA Piedmont/Chesapeake Bay vicinity. Severe probabilities may need to be adjusted eastward in subsequent outlooks if confidence increases in storm coverage or maintenance of an eastward propagating cluster east of the mountains. ...Northeast NM... Modest boundary-layer moisture will be maintained in a post-frontal upslope flow regime Friday afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms will develop over the higher terrain near the Raton Mesa vicinity. Cool temperatures aloft and midlevel lapse rates near 7.5-8 C/km will support modest instability, while vertically veering wind profiles will be sufficient for around 30-35 kt effective shear magnitudes. A couple of strong/severe storms producing hail and strong gusts will be possible during the afternoon/early evening. ...OK/TX into the Southeast... Thunderstorm clusters are expected along the southward sagging cold front across portions of OK/TX eastward into TN Valley vicinity. Vertical shear will be weak and lapse rates poor. However, a very moist/high PW airmass will be in place amid 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Locally gusty winds may accompany thunderstorms, but organized severe potential appears low. ..Leitman.. 07/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM CDT Thu Jul 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM LOWER MICHIGAN INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND WESTERN/CENTRAL NEW YORK...AS WELL AS NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from Lower Michigan into the Ohio Valley, Central Appalachians and western/central New York. Additional isolated strong storms are possible across northeast New Mexico. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will be centered over the upper Great Lakes/central U.S. Friday morning. This feature will slowly pivot east through the period, with a couple of embedded convectively enhanced vorticity maxima/lead shortwave impulse migrates through southwesterly flow over parts of the Upper OH Valley/Central Appalachians into western/central NY. At the surface, a very moist airmass will be in place ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front. The front is forecast to extend from Lake Michigan south/southwest into central/southern AR/OK and northwest TX/eastern NM during the morning. Some showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing across parts of the OH Valley in a modest warm advection regime and as a continuation of convection expected in the Day 1/Thu overnight period. Some guidance suggests an MCV related to this activity may float east across parts of the adjacent Appalachians through the afternoon. This general pattern should support at least isolated/sporadic organized thunderstorms capable of mainly strong/locally damaging gusts. Further west, thunderstorms also will be possible across eastern NM in a post-frontal upslope flow regime and eastward into portions of central TX along the southward sagging cold front. ...Lower MI... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon as a seasonally moist airmass destabilizes in the vicinity of a surface low/triple point and within the cold core of the upper trough. While instability will remain modest (less than 1000 J/kg MLCAPE), vertical shear will support transient organized cells/small line segments. Cool temperatures aloft and elongated forecast hodographs suggest marginal hail to near 1 inch diameter will be possible with any more intense/organized updrafts. Occasional strong gusts also are possible. ...OH Valley/Central Appalachians into western/central NY... Areas of ongoing convection and general cloudiness are expected across the region. However, a very moist airmass will be in place and even modest heating will allow for moderate destabilization (MLCAPE 1500-2000 J/kg). Vertical shear will be strongest with northward extent closer to the midlevel jet max oriented from OH into NY. However, forecast guidance suggest a convectively enhanced vorticity max over KY may drift east across the central Appalachians, providing some enhancement to shear across this area. Shear should be sufficient for at least transient organized cells/clusters amid a high PW environment. Thunderstorms across the region will mainly pose a risk for strong/locally damaging gusts during the afternoon/evening. Some uncertainty exists regarding eastward extent of damaging wind potential as vertical shear weakens into the VA Piedmont/Chesapeake Bay vicinity. Severe probabilities may need to be adjusted eastward in subsequent outlooks if confidence increases in storm coverage or maintenance of an eastward propagating cluster east of the mountains. ...Northeast NM... Modest boundary-layer moisture will be maintained in a post-frontal upslope flow regime Friday afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms will develop over the higher terrain near the Raton Mesa vicinity. Cool temperatures aloft and midlevel lapse rates near 7.5-8 C/km will support modest instability, while vertically veering wind profiles will be sufficient for around 30-35 kt effective shear magnitudes. A couple of strong/severe storms producing hail and strong gusts will be possible during the afternoon/early evening. ...OK/TX into the Southeast... Thunderstorm clusters are expected along the southward sagging cold front across portions of OK/TX eastward into TN Valley vicinity. Vertical shear will be weak and lapse rates poor. However, a very moist/high PW airmass will be in place amid 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Locally gusty winds may accompany thunderstorms, but organized severe potential appears low. ..Leitman.. 07/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM CDT Thu Jul 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM LOWER MICHIGAN INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND WESTERN/CENTRAL NEW YORK...AS WELL AS NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from Lower Michigan into the Ohio Valley, Central Appalachians and western/central New York. Additional isolated strong storms are possible across northeast New Mexico. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will be centered over the upper Great Lakes/central U.S. Friday morning. This feature will slowly pivot east through the period, with a couple of embedded convectively enhanced vorticity maxima/lead shortwave impulse migrates through southwesterly flow over parts of the Upper OH Valley/Central Appalachians into western/central NY. At the surface, a very moist airmass will be in place ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front. The front is forecast to extend from Lake Michigan south/southwest into central/southern AR/OK and northwest TX/eastern NM during the morning. Some showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing across parts of the OH Valley in a modest warm advection regime and as a continuation of convection expected in the Day 1/Thu overnight period. Some guidance suggests an MCV related to this activity may float east across parts of the adjacent Appalachians through the afternoon. This general pattern should support at least isolated/sporadic organized thunderstorms capable of mainly strong/locally damaging gusts. Further west, thunderstorms also will be possible across eastern NM in a post-frontal upslope flow regime and eastward into portions of central TX along the southward sagging cold front. ...Lower MI... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon as a seasonally moist airmass destabilizes in the vicinity of a surface low/triple point and within the cold core of the upper trough. While instability will remain modest (less than 1000 J/kg MLCAPE), vertical shear will support transient organized cells/small line segments. Cool temperatures aloft and elongated forecast hodographs suggest marginal hail to near 1 inch diameter will be possible with any more intense/organized updrafts. Occasional strong gusts also are possible. ...OH Valley/Central Appalachians into western/central NY... Areas of ongoing convection and general cloudiness are expected across the region. However, a very moist airmass will be in place and even modest heating will allow for moderate destabilization (MLCAPE 1500-2000 J/kg). Vertical shear will be strongest with northward extent closer to the midlevel jet max oriented from OH into NY. However, forecast guidance suggest a convectively enhanced vorticity max over KY may drift east across the central Appalachians, providing some enhancement to shear across this area. Shear should be sufficient for at least transient organized cells/clusters amid a high PW environment. Thunderstorms across the region will mainly pose a risk for strong/locally damaging gusts during the afternoon/evening. Some uncertainty exists regarding eastward extent of damaging wind potential as vertical shear weakens into the VA Piedmont/Chesapeake Bay vicinity. Severe probabilities may need to be adjusted eastward in subsequent outlooks if confidence increases in storm coverage or maintenance of an eastward propagating cluster east of the mountains. ...Northeast NM... Modest boundary-layer moisture will be maintained in a post-frontal upslope flow regime Friday afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms will develop over the higher terrain near the Raton Mesa vicinity. Cool temperatures aloft and midlevel lapse rates near 7.5-8 C/km will support modest instability, while vertically veering wind profiles will be sufficient for around 30-35 kt effective shear magnitudes. A couple of strong/severe storms producing hail and strong gusts will be possible during the afternoon/early evening. ...OK/TX into the Southeast... Thunderstorm clusters are expected along the southward sagging cold front across portions of OK/TX eastward into TN Valley vicinity. Vertical shear will be weak and lapse rates poor. However, a very moist/high PW airmass will be in place amid 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Locally gusty winds may accompany thunderstorms, but organized severe potential appears low. ..Leitman.. 07/04/2024 Read more

WW 0505 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0505 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more