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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CDT Sun Jul 07 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN UTAH... ...Synopsis... A highly amplified ridge is currently centered over California with a trough to the northeast, and embedded in the northwesterly mid-level flow, is a shortwave trough which will traverse the Great Basin through the day today. This shortwave trough should result in breezy conditions, with gusts to 30-35 mph overlapping with 5-10% RH in the afternoon. Fuels in the Great Basin region are at least modestly receptive to fire spread. The Critical region has been maintained in portions of southern Utah where fuels are a bit drier than in the surrounding Elevated area. Additionally, in the southern California coastal range and the Transverse Ranges, dry fuels are in place with low RH expected this afternoon. However, at this time, areas of strong winds are expected to be transient and therefore no Elevated highlights have been included on this outlook. ..Supinie.. 07/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Sun Jul 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF EASTERN TEXAS...WESTERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... At least an isolated risk for tornadoes will be possible across parts of eastern Texas into western Louisiana and southwestern Arkansas tomorrow (Monday). A couple of severe gusts or instances of hail may also occur in southwestern Texas. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough and attendant weak surface low will meander eastward across the MS Valley as a diffuse surface cold front sags southward across the southern High Plains tomorrow (Monday). Meanwhile, an upper ridge and associated surface high will persist across the Interior West. At the start of the period (12Z Monday), Beryl is forecast to make landfall along the TX coastline as a hurricane before weakening as it continues to move further inland. Toward the end of the period (12Z Tuesday), the remnants of Beryl are poised to track northeast toward the Mid-MS Valley while merging with the mid-level trough. At least isolated thunderstorms are possible across most of the CONUS along and to the east of the Rockies (east of the upper-level ridge/surface high), where adequate moisture and buoyancy are present. The best chance for any strong to severe thunderstorms will be associated with Beryl across eastern TX/western LA, where a few tornadoes will be possible. Otherwise, isolated strong to severe storms could occur near the cold front across southwestern TX. ...Eastern TX into Western LA and southwestern AR... At the start of the period, Beryl should make landfall as an annular hurricane, with rich low-level moisture (i.e. mid to upper 70s F surface dewpoints) advecting inland from the Galveston Bay area, into the right-front quadrant of the cyclone. Through the day, Beryl will weaken to tropical storm status and transition to an asymmetric cyclone as it shifts northeast and begins to merge with the mid-level trough. Through this period, guidance consensus depicts considerable strengthening and veering of the low-level vertical wind profile, resulting in large, curved hodographs (200-300 m2/s2 effective SRH) within the northeast quadrant, coinciding with over 1000 J/kg SBCAPE. Multiple CAM members also show semi-discrete storms within the northeast quadrant. At least a few tornadoes are possible as the northeast quadrant of Beryl tracks northeast across eastern TX into western LA and southwestern AR. Other thunderstorms may develop along the northern/easternmost periphery of Beryl, where vertical wind shear will be weaker. A damaging gust or a brief tornado cannot be ruled out with these storms across northeast AR into southeast MO. ...Southwestern TX... By afternoon peak heating, thunderstorms are expected to develop along and immediately south of the cold front across the Trans Pecos region of southwestern TX. These storms will develop atop a deep, mixed boundary layer amid elongated hodographs. Multicells are expected as the main storm mode. 0-3 km lapse rates exceeding 9 C/km coinciding with 30-40 kts of effective bulk shear will support an isolated severe gust/hail threat with the stronger storms before diminishing after sunset. ..Squitieri.. 07/07/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Sun Jul 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF EASTERN TEXAS...WESTERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... At least an isolated risk for tornadoes will be possible across parts of eastern Texas into western Louisiana and southwestern Arkansas tomorrow (Monday). A couple of severe gusts or instances of hail may also occur in southwestern Texas. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough and attendant weak surface low will meander eastward across the MS Valley as a diffuse surface cold front sags southward across the southern High Plains tomorrow (Monday). Meanwhile, an upper ridge and associated surface high will persist across the Interior West. At the start of the period (12Z Monday), Beryl is forecast to make landfall along the TX coastline as a hurricane before weakening as it continues to move further inland. Toward the end of the period (12Z Tuesday), the remnants of Beryl are poised to track northeast toward the Mid-MS Valley while merging with the mid-level trough. At least isolated thunderstorms are possible across most of the CONUS along and to the east of the Rockies (east of the upper-level ridge/surface high), where adequate moisture and buoyancy are present. The best chance for any strong to severe thunderstorms will be associated with Beryl across eastern TX/western LA, where a few tornadoes will be possible. Otherwise, isolated strong to severe storms could occur near the cold front across southwestern TX. ...Eastern TX into Western LA and southwestern AR... At the start of the period, Beryl should make landfall as an annular hurricane, with rich low-level moisture (i.e. mid to upper 70s F surface dewpoints) advecting inland from the Galveston Bay area, into the right-front quadrant of the cyclone. Through the day, Beryl will weaken to tropical storm status and transition to an asymmetric cyclone as it shifts northeast and begins to merge with the mid-level trough. Through this period, guidance consensus depicts considerable strengthening and veering of the low-level vertical wind profile, resulting in large, curved hodographs (200-300 m2/s2 effective SRH) within the northeast quadrant, coinciding with over 1000 J/kg SBCAPE. Multiple CAM members also show semi-discrete storms within the northeast quadrant. At least a few tornadoes are possible as the northeast quadrant of Beryl tracks northeast across eastern TX into western LA and southwestern AR. Other thunderstorms may develop along the northern/easternmost periphery of Beryl, where vertical wind shear will be weaker. A damaging gust or a brief tornado cannot be ruled out with these storms across northeast AR into southeast MO. ...Southwestern TX... By afternoon peak heating, thunderstorms are expected to develop along and immediately south of the cold front across the Trans Pecos region of southwestern TX. These storms will develop atop a deep, mixed boundary layer amid elongated hodographs. Multicells are expected as the main storm mode. 0-3 km lapse rates exceeding 9 C/km coinciding with 30-40 kts of effective bulk shear will support an isolated severe gust/hail threat with the stronger storms before diminishing after sunset. ..Squitieri.. 07/07/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Sun Jul 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF EASTERN TEXAS...WESTERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... At least an isolated risk for tornadoes will be possible across parts of eastern Texas into western Louisiana and southwestern Arkansas tomorrow (Monday). A couple of severe gusts or instances of hail may also occur in southwestern Texas. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough and attendant weak surface low will meander eastward across the MS Valley as a diffuse surface cold front sags southward across the southern High Plains tomorrow (Monday). Meanwhile, an upper ridge and associated surface high will persist across the Interior West. At the start of the period (12Z Monday), Beryl is forecast to make landfall along the TX coastline as a hurricane before weakening as it continues to move further inland. Toward the end of the period (12Z Tuesday), the remnants of Beryl are poised to track northeast toward the Mid-MS Valley while merging with the mid-level trough. At least isolated thunderstorms are possible across most of the CONUS along and to the east of the Rockies (east of the upper-level ridge/surface high), where adequate moisture and buoyancy are present. The best chance for any strong to severe thunderstorms will be associated with Beryl across eastern TX/western LA, where a few tornadoes will be possible. Otherwise, isolated strong to severe storms could occur near the cold front across southwestern TX. ...Eastern TX into Western LA and southwestern AR... At the start of the period, Beryl should make landfall as an annular hurricane, with rich low-level moisture (i.e. mid to upper 70s F surface dewpoints) advecting inland from the Galveston Bay area, into the right-front quadrant of the cyclone. Through the day, Beryl will weaken to tropical storm status and transition to an asymmetric cyclone as it shifts northeast and begins to merge with the mid-level trough. Through this period, guidance consensus depicts considerable strengthening and veering of the low-level vertical wind profile, resulting in large, curved hodographs (200-300 m2/s2 effective SRH) within the northeast quadrant, coinciding with over 1000 J/kg SBCAPE. Multiple CAM members also show semi-discrete storms within the northeast quadrant. At least a few tornadoes are possible as the northeast quadrant of Beryl tracks northeast across eastern TX into western LA and southwestern AR. Other thunderstorms may develop along the northern/easternmost periphery of Beryl, where vertical wind shear will be weaker. A damaging gust or a brief tornado cannot be ruled out with these storms across northeast AR into southeast MO. ...Southwestern TX... By afternoon peak heating, thunderstorms are expected to develop along and immediately south of the cold front across the Trans Pecos region of southwestern TX. These storms will develop atop a deep, mixed boundary layer amid elongated hodographs. Multicells are expected as the main storm mode. 0-3 km lapse rates exceeding 9 C/km coinciding with 30-40 kts of effective bulk shear will support an isolated severe gust/hail threat with the stronger storms before diminishing after sunset. ..Squitieri.. 07/07/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Sun Jul 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF EASTERN TEXAS...WESTERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... At least an isolated risk for tornadoes will be possible across parts of eastern Texas into western Louisiana and southwestern Arkansas tomorrow (Monday). A couple of severe gusts or instances of hail may also occur in southwestern Texas. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough and attendant weak surface low will meander eastward across the MS Valley as a diffuse surface cold front sags southward across the southern High Plains tomorrow (Monday). Meanwhile, an upper ridge and associated surface high will persist across the Interior West. At the start of the period (12Z Monday), Beryl is forecast to make landfall along the TX coastline as a hurricane before weakening as it continues to move further inland. Toward the end of the period (12Z Tuesday), the remnants of Beryl are poised to track northeast toward the Mid-MS Valley while merging with the mid-level trough. At least isolated thunderstorms are possible across most of the CONUS along and to the east of the Rockies (east of the upper-level ridge/surface high), where adequate moisture and buoyancy are present. The best chance for any strong to severe thunderstorms will be associated with Beryl across eastern TX/western LA, where a few tornadoes will be possible. Otherwise, isolated strong to severe storms could occur near the cold front across southwestern TX. ...Eastern TX into Western LA and southwestern AR... At the start of the period, Beryl should make landfall as an annular hurricane, with rich low-level moisture (i.e. mid to upper 70s F surface dewpoints) advecting inland from the Galveston Bay area, into the right-front quadrant of the cyclone. Through the day, Beryl will weaken to tropical storm status and transition to an asymmetric cyclone as it shifts northeast and begins to merge with the mid-level trough. Through this period, guidance consensus depicts considerable strengthening and veering of the low-level vertical wind profile, resulting in large, curved hodographs (200-300 m2/s2 effective SRH) within the northeast quadrant, coinciding with over 1000 J/kg SBCAPE. Multiple CAM members also show semi-discrete storms within the northeast quadrant. At least a few tornadoes are possible as the northeast quadrant of Beryl tracks northeast across eastern TX into western LA and southwestern AR. Other thunderstorms may develop along the northern/easternmost periphery of Beryl, where vertical wind shear will be weaker. A damaging gust or a brief tornado cannot be ruled out with these storms across northeast AR into southeast MO. ...Southwestern TX... By afternoon peak heating, thunderstorms are expected to develop along and immediately south of the cold front across the Trans Pecos region of southwestern TX. These storms will develop atop a deep, mixed boundary layer amid elongated hodographs. Multicells are expected as the main storm mode. 0-3 km lapse rates exceeding 9 C/km coinciding with 30-40 kts of effective bulk shear will support an isolated severe gust/hail threat with the stronger storms before diminishing after sunset. ..Squitieri.. 07/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Sun Jul 07 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND ALONG THE MIDDLE TO UPPER TEXAS COAST.... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms, associated with severe wind gusts and isolated large hail, are expected today in parts of the central and southern Plains. A few tornadoes will be possible along the middle to upper Texas Coast as tropical cyclone Beryl approaches the coast this evening and makes landfall later tonight. ...Central and Southern Plains... A shortwave trough, embedded in a large-scale upper-level trough, will move southeastward into the central U.S. today. At the surface, a cold front will advance southward across the central Plains. Early in the day, thunderstorms appear likely to develop in the vicinity of the front across eastern Colorado. Other storms appear likely to develop ahead of the front over parts of Oklahoma and Kansas. In the wake of the eastern most cluster, strong surface heating will enable a large area of moderate instability to develop by afternoon from the Texas Panhandle eastward into south-central Oklahoma. As the front moves southward into Oklahoma during the late afternoon, thunderstorms are forecast to redevelop from the Texas Panhandle eastward into western and central Oklahoma. MCS development will likely take place as the a low-level jet strengthens across the southern Plains during the early to mid evening. Within the moist and unstable airmass, surface dewpoints will likely be in the mid to upper 60s F, with MLCAPE peaking in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. RAP forecast soundings have 700-500 mb lapse rates reaching the 7 to 8 C/km range, suggesting thermodynamics will be favorable for isolated large hail. The hail threat should be concentrated in the late afternoon near and after the peak in instability. A potential for severe wind gusts should also develop in the late afternoon. Severe wind gusts could become the predominant severe threat, especially if a well-developed line segment can become organized. This threat could continue into the late evening, associated with the stronger cells within the MCS. ...Middle to Upper Texas Coast... Tropical Storm Beryl is forecast to become a hurricane today in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico, per NHC forecast. As the center of Beryl approaches the middle Texas Coast this evening, bands of heavy rainfall appear likely begin to overspread parts of the Texas Coastal Plain. In response to the approaching cyclone, low-level shear will steadily increase across the middle to upper Texas Coast. This will likely result in a tornado threat this evening into tonight, with semi-discrete rotating cells that develop with the rainbands of Beryl. The greatest tornado threat should develop to the north and east of the center of Beryl as it approaches the coast tonight. ..Broyles/Supinie.. 07/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Sun Jul 07 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND ALONG THE MIDDLE TO UPPER TEXAS COAST.... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms, associated with severe wind gusts and isolated large hail, are expected today in parts of the central and southern Plains. A few tornadoes will be possible along the middle to upper Texas Coast as tropical cyclone Beryl approaches the coast this evening and makes landfall later tonight. ...Central and Southern Plains... A shortwave trough, embedded in a large-scale upper-level trough, will move southeastward into the central U.S. today. At the surface, a cold front will advance southward across the central Plains. Early in the day, thunderstorms appear likely to develop in the vicinity of the front across eastern Colorado. Other storms appear likely to develop ahead of the front over parts of Oklahoma and Kansas. In the wake of the eastern most cluster, strong surface heating will enable a large area of moderate instability to develop by afternoon from the Texas Panhandle eastward into south-central Oklahoma. As the front moves southward into Oklahoma during the late afternoon, thunderstorms are forecast to redevelop from the Texas Panhandle eastward into western and central Oklahoma. MCS development will likely take place as the a low-level jet strengthens across the southern Plains during the early to mid evening. Within the moist and unstable airmass, surface dewpoints will likely be in the mid to upper 60s F, with MLCAPE peaking in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. RAP forecast soundings have 700-500 mb lapse rates reaching the 7 to 8 C/km range, suggesting thermodynamics will be favorable for isolated large hail. The hail threat should be concentrated in the late afternoon near and after the peak in instability. A potential for severe wind gusts should also develop in the late afternoon. Severe wind gusts could become the predominant severe threat, especially if a well-developed line segment can become organized. This threat could continue into the late evening, associated with the stronger cells within the MCS. ...Middle to Upper Texas Coast... Tropical Storm Beryl is forecast to become a hurricane today in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico, per NHC forecast. As the center of Beryl approaches the middle Texas Coast this evening, bands of heavy rainfall appear likely begin to overspread parts of the Texas Coastal Plain. In response to the approaching cyclone, low-level shear will steadily increase across the middle to upper Texas Coast. This will likely result in a tornado threat this evening into tonight, with semi-discrete rotating cells that develop with the rainbands of Beryl. The greatest tornado threat should develop to the north and east of the center of Beryl as it approaches the coast tonight. ..Broyles/Supinie.. 07/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Sun Jul 07 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND ALONG THE MIDDLE TO UPPER TEXAS COAST.... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms, associated with severe wind gusts and isolated large hail, are expected today in parts of the central and southern Plains. A few tornadoes will be possible along the middle to upper Texas Coast as tropical cyclone Beryl approaches the coast this evening and makes landfall later tonight. ...Central and Southern Plains... A shortwave trough, embedded in a large-scale upper-level trough, will move southeastward into the central U.S. today. At the surface, a cold front will advance southward across the central Plains. Early in the day, thunderstorms appear likely to develop in the vicinity of the front across eastern Colorado. Other storms appear likely to develop ahead of the front over parts of Oklahoma and Kansas. In the wake of the eastern most cluster, strong surface heating will enable a large area of moderate instability to develop by afternoon from the Texas Panhandle eastward into south-central Oklahoma. As the front moves southward into Oklahoma during the late afternoon, thunderstorms are forecast to redevelop from the Texas Panhandle eastward into western and central Oklahoma. MCS development will likely take place as the a low-level jet strengthens across the southern Plains during the early to mid evening. Within the moist and unstable airmass, surface dewpoints will likely be in the mid to upper 60s F, with MLCAPE peaking in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. RAP forecast soundings have 700-500 mb lapse rates reaching the 7 to 8 C/km range, suggesting thermodynamics will be favorable for isolated large hail. The hail threat should be concentrated in the late afternoon near and after the peak in instability. A potential for severe wind gusts should also develop in the late afternoon. Severe wind gusts could become the predominant severe threat, especially if a well-developed line segment can become organized. This threat could continue into the late evening, associated with the stronger cells within the MCS. ...Middle to Upper Texas Coast... Tropical Storm Beryl is forecast to become a hurricane today in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico, per NHC forecast. As the center of Beryl approaches the middle Texas Coast this evening, bands of heavy rainfall appear likely begin to overspread parts of the Texas Coastal Plain. In response to the approaching cyclone, low-level shear will steadily increase across the middle to upper Texas Coast. This will likely result in a tornado threat this evening into tonight, with semi-discrete rotating cells that develop with the rainbands of Beryl. The greatest tornado threat should develop to the north and east of the center of Beryl as it approaches the coast tonight. ..Broyles/Supinie.. 07/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Sun Jul 07 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND ALONG THE MIDDLE TO UPPER TEXAS COAST.... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms, associated with severe wind gusts and isolated large hail, are expected today in parts of the central and southern Plains. A few tornadoes will be possible along the middle to upper Texas Coast as tropical cyclone Beryl approaches the coast this evening and makes landfall later tonight. ...Central and Southern Plains... A shortwave trough, embedded in a large-scale upper-level trough, will move southeastward into the central U.S. today. At the surface, a cold front will advance southward across the central Plains. Early in the day, thunderstorms appear likely to develop in the vicinity of the front across eastern Colorado. Other storms appear likely to develop ahead of the front over parts of Oklahoma and Kansas. In the wake of the eastern most cluster, strong surface heating will enable a large area of moderate instability to develop by afternoon from the Texas Panhandle eastward into south-central Oklahoma. As the front moves southward into Oklahoma during the late afternoon, thunderstorms are forecast to redevelop from the Texas Panhandle eastward into western and central Oklahoma. MCS development will likely take place as the a low-level jet strengthens across the southern Plains during the early to mid evening. Within the moist and unstable airmass, surface dewpoints will likely be in the mid to upper 60s F, with MLCAPE peaking in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. RAP forecast soundings have 700-500 mb lapse rates reaching the 7 to 8 C/km range, suggesting thermodynamics will be favorable for isolated large hail. The hail threat should be concentrated in the late afternoon near and after the peak in instability. A potential for severe wind gusts should also develop in the late afternoon. Severe wind gusts could become the predominant severe threat, especially if a well-developed line segment can become organized. This threat could continue into the late evening, associated with the stronger cells within the MCS. ...Middle to Upper Texas Coast... Tropical Storm Beryl is forecast to become a hurricane today in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico, per NHC forecast. As the center of Beryl approaches the middle Texas Coast this evening, bands of heavy rainfall appear likely begin to overspread parts of the Texas Coastal Plain. In response to the approaching cyclone, low-level shear will steadily increase across the middle to upper Texas Coast. This will likely result in a tornado threat this evening into tonight, with semi-discrete rotating cells that develop with the rainbands of Beryl. The greatest tornado threat should develop to the north and east of the center of Beryl as it approaches the coast tonight. ..Broyles/Supinie.. 07/07/2024 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 070524
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sat Jul 6 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

MD 1549 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 510... FOR SOUTHWEST KANSAS REGION
Mesoscale Discussion 1549 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1032 PM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024 Areas affected...Southwest Kansas region Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 510... Valid 070332Z - 070500Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 510 continues. SUMMARY...Strong/severe convection will spread across southwest Kansas toward extreme northwest Oklahoma into the early-morning hours. DISCUSSION...A slow-moving cluster of severe thunderstorms has overspread the western half of ww510. This activity is propagating southeast into a strengthening LLJ that extends across the eastern TX Panhandle into southwest KS. Latest radar trends suggest new/robust updrafts are evolving over southwest KS, and satellite imagery suggests convection is now deepening over Wichita County, about 40 mi northwest of Garden City. Leading edge of the complex is not moving particularly fast as there is a propensity for new updrafts along the northwest flank, where low-level warm advection may be maximized. With time this evolving MCS should progress into northwest OK, and the primary risk remains damaging winds. ..Darrow.. 07/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...GLD...AMA... LAT...LON 38600036 37079899 36900044 38400140 38600036 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 3 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1119 PM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024 Valid 070100Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... CORRECTED FOR FLIPPED THUNDER LINE ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms will continue this evening across parts of the central Plains. A few marginally severe storms will be possible further west into the southern and central High Plains, and northward into the mid Missouri Valley. ...Central Plains/Southern and Central High Plains/Mid Missouri Valley... The latest water vapor imagery shows an upper-level low over the eastern Dakotas, with a shortwave trough extending southward from the low into the central Plains. At the surface, a cold front is located from western Nebraska into southeastern South Dakota, along which a marginal severe threat will continue this evening. Further southeastward into the warm sector, a couple convective systems are ongoing along and to the east of the shortwave trough. An organized line segment is located in far southeast Nebraska, along the western edge of a corridor of moderate instability, where the RAP is analyzing MLCAPE in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. WSR-88D VWPs in this area have southeasterly winds at the surface, with winds gradually veering to westerly in the mid-levels. This wind profile will continue to be favorable for linear organization, and a wind-damage threat is expected to continue in the vicinity of far southeast Nebraska and far northwest Missouri this evening. Hail will also likely accompany the stronger cells embedded in this line. Further to the southwest into west-central Kansas, a severe convective cluster is also ongoing along and to the east of a north-to-south corridor of moderate instability. Near this area, the RAP is analyzing MLCAPE in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. This convection is located just to the north of the Dodge City WSR-88D VWP, which has 0-6 km shear near 40 knots. This shear environment should be enough to continue a threat for supercells this evening. Supercells will likely be capable of isolated large hail. A few severe wind gusts will also be possible. The ongoing convective systems in Kansas and Nebraska are expected to continue into the late evening, but the severe threat should become more isolated with time as instability gradually decreases across the central Plains. ..Broyles.. 07/07/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 3 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1119 PM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024 Valid 070100Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... CORRECTED FOR FLIPPED THUNDER LINE ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms will continue this evening across parts of the central Plains. A few marginally severe storms will be possible further west into the southern and central High Plains, and northward into the mid Missouri Valley. ...Central Plains/Southern and Central High Plains/Mid Missouri Valley... The latest water vapor imagery shows an upper-level low over the eastern Dakotas, with a shortwave trough extending southward from the low into the central Plains. At the surface, a cold front is located from western Nebraska into southeastern South Dakota, along which a marginal severe threat will continue this evening. Further southeastward into the warm sector, a couple convective systems are ongoing along and to the east of the shortwave trough. An organized line segment is located in far southeast Nebraska, along the western edge of a corridor of moderate instability, where the RAP is analyzing MLCAPE in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. WSR-88D VWPs in this area have southeasterly winds at the surface, with winds gradually veering to westerly in the mid-levels. This wind profile will continue to be favorable for linear organization, and a wind-damage threat is expected to continue in the vicinity of far southeast Nebraska and far northwest Missouri this evening. Hail will also likely accompany the stronger cells embedded in this line. Further to the southwest into west-central Kansas, a severe convective cluster is also ongoing along and to the east of a north-to-south corridor of moderate instability. Near this area, the RAP is analyzing MLCAPE in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. This convection is located just to the north of the Dodge City WSR-88D VWP, which has 0-6 km shear near 40 knots. This shear environment should be enough to continue a threat for supercells this evening. Supercells will likely be capable of isolated large hail. A few severe wind gusts will also be possible. The ongoing convective systems in Kansas and Nebraska are expected to continue into the late evening, but the severe threat should become more isolated with time as instability gradually decreases across the central Plains. ..Broyles.. 07/07/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 2 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0926 PM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024 Valid 070100Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... CORRECTED FOR FLIPPED THUNDER LINE ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms will continue this evening across parts of the central Plains. A few marginally severe storms will be possible further west into the southern and central High Plains, and northward into the mid Missouri Valley. ...Central Plains/Southern and Central High Plains/Mid Missouri Valley... The latest water vapor imagery shows an upper-level low over the eastern Dakotas, with a shortwave trough extending southward from the low into the central Plains. At the surface, a cold front is located from western Nebraska into southeastern South Dakota, along which a marginal severe threat will continue this evening. Further southeastward into the warm sector, a couple convective systems are ongoing along and to the east of the shortwave trough. An organized line segment is located in far southeast Nebraska, along the western edge of a corridor of moderate instability, where the RAP is analyzing MLCAPE in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. WSR-88D VWPs in this area have southeasterly winds at the surface, with winds gradually veering to westerly in the mid-levels. This wind profile will continue to be favorable for linear organization, and a wind-damage threat is expected to continue in the vicinity of far southeast Nebraska and far northwest Missouri this evening. Hail will also likely accompany the stronger cells embedded in this line. Further to the southwest into west-central Kansas, a severe convective cluster is also ongoing along and to the east of a north-to-south corridor of moderate instability. Near this area, the RAP is analyzing MLCAPE in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. This convection is located just to the north of the Dodge City WSR-88D VWP, which has 0-6 km shear near 40 knots. This shear environment should be enough to continue a threat for supercells this evening. Supercells will likely be capable of isolated large hail. A few severe wind gusts will also be possible. The ongoing convective systems in Kansas and Nebraska are expected to continue into the late evening, but the severe threat should become more isolated with time as instability gradually decreases across the central Plains. ..Broyles.. 07/07/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 2 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0926 PM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024 Valid 070100Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... CORRECTED FOR FLIPPED THUNDER LINE ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms will continue this evening across parts of the central Plains. A few marginally severe storms will be possible further west into the southern and central High Plains, and northward into the mid Missouri Valley. ...Central Plains/Southern and Central High Plains/Mid Missouri Valley... The latest water vapor imagery shows an upper-level low over the eastern Dakotas, with a shortwave trough extending southward from the low into the central Plains. At the surface, a cold front is located from western Nebraska into southeastern South Dakota, along which a marginal severe threat will continue this evening. Further southeastward into the warm sector, a couple convective systems are ongoing along and to the east of the shortwave trough. An organized line segment is located in far southeast Nebraska, along the western edge of a corridor of moderate instability, where the RAP is analyzing MLCAPE in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. WSR-88D VWPs in this area have southeasterly winds at the surface, with winds gradually veering to westerly in the mid-levels. This wind profile will continue to be favorable for linear organization, and a wind-damage threat is expected to continue in the vicinity of far southeast Nebraska and far northwest Missouri this evening. Hail will also likely accompany the stronger cells embedded in this line. Further to the southwest into west-central Kansas, a severe convective cluster is also ongoing along and to the east of a north-to-south corridor of moderate instability. Near this area, the RAP is analyzing MLCAPE in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. This convection is located just to the north of the Dodge City WSR-88D VWP, which has 0-6 km shear near 40 knots. This shear environment should be enough to continue a threat for supercells this evening. Supercells will likely be capable of isolated large hail. A few severe wind gusts will also be possible. The ongoing convective systems in Kansas and Nebraska are expected to continue into the late evening, but the severe threat should become more isolated with time as instability gradually decreases across the central Plains. ..Broyles.. 07/07/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 2 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0926 PM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024 Valid 070100Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... CORRECTED FOR FLIPPED THUNDER LINE ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms will continue this evening across parts of the central Plains. A few marginally severe storms will be possible further west into the southern and central High Plains, and northward into the mid Missouri Valley. ...Central Plains/Southern and Central High Plains/Mid Missouri Valley... The latest water vapor imagery shows an upper-level low over the eastern Dakotas, with a shortwave trough extending southward from the low into the central Plains. At the surface, a cold front is located from western Nebraska into southeastern South Dakota, along which a marginal severe threat will continue this evening. Further southeastward into the warm sector, a couple convective systems are ongoing along and to the east of the shortwave trough. An organized line segment is located in far southeast Nebraska, along the western edge of a corridor of moderate instability, where the RAP is analyzing MLCAPE in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. WSR-88D VWPs in this area have southeasterly winds at the surface, with winds gradually veering to westerly in the mid-levels. This wind profile will continue to be favorable for linear organization, and a wind-damage threat is expected to continue in the vicinity of far southeast Nebraska and far northwest Missouri this evening. Hail will also likely accompany the stronger cells embedded in this line. Further to the southwest into west-central Kansas, a severe convective cluster is also ongoing along and to the east of a north-to-south corridor of moderate instability. Near this area, the RAP is analyzing MLCAPE in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. This convection is located just to the north of the Dodge City WSR-88D VWP, which has 0-6 km shear near 40 knots. This shear environment should be enough to continue a threat for supercells this evening. Supercells will likely be capable of isolated large hail. A few severe wind gusts will also be possible. The ongoing convective systems in Kansas and Nebraska are expected to continue into the late evening, but the severe threat should become more isolated with time as instability gradually decreases across the central Plains. ..Broyles.. 07/07/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0842 PM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024 Valid 070100Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... CORRECTED FOR FLIPPED THUNDER LINE ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms will continue this evening across parts of the central Plains. A few marginally severe storms will be possible further west into the southern and central High Plains, and northward into the mid Missouri Valley. ...Central Plains/Southern and Central High Plains/Mid Missouri Valley... The latest water vapor imagery shows an upper-level low over the eastern Dakotas, with a shortwave trough extending southward from the low into the central Plains. At the surface, a cold front is located from western Nebraska into southeastern South Dakota, along which a marginal severe threat will continue this evening. Further southeastward into the warm sector, a couple convective systems are ongoing along and to the east of the shortwave trough. An organized line segment is located in far southeast Nebraska, along the western edge of a corridor of moderate instability, where the RAP is analyzing MLCAPE in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. WSR-88D VWPs in this area have southeasterly winds at the surface, with winds gradually veering to westerly in the mid-levels. This wind profile will continue to be favorable for linear organization, and a wind-damage threat is expected to continue in the vicinity of far southeast Nebraska and far northwest Missouri this evening. Hail will also likely accompany the stronger cells embedded in this line. Further to the southwest into west-central Kansas, a severe convective cluster is also ongoing along and to the east of a north-to-south corridor of moderate instability. Near this area, the RAP is analyzing MLCAPE in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. This convection is located just to the north of the Dodge City WSR-88D VWP, which has 0-6 km shear near 40 knots. This shear environment should be enough to continue a threat for supercells this evening. Supercells will likely be capable of isolated large hail. A few severe wind gusts will also be possible. The ongoing convective systems in Kansas and Nebraska are expected to continue into the late evening, but the severe threat should become more isolated with time as instability gradually decreases across the central Plains. ..Broyles.. 07/07/2024 Read more

MD 1548 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 509... FOR LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY REGION
Mesoscale Discussion 1548 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0756 PM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024 Areas affected...Lower Missouri Valley region Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 509... Valid 070056Z - 070200Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 509 continues. SUMMARY...Damaging wind threat continues this evening. DISCUSSION...MCS that developed over south-central NE has matured as it propagates east along the NE/KS border toward southwest IA/northwest MO. Latest diagnostic data depicts a broad reservoir of buoyancy (1000-1500 MLCAPE) that has yet to be overturned immediately ahead of this complex. With the LLJ beginning to strengthen over northeast KS there is reasonable confidence this MCS should advance beyond the MO River before any appreciable weakening occurs. Damaging winds are the primary risk with this convection. ..Darrow.. 07/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID... LAT...LON 40829765 40799515 39349511 39399765 40829765 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0757 PM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024 Valid 070100Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms will continue this evening across parts of the central Plains. A few marginally severe storms will be possible further west into the southern and central High Plains, and northward into the mid Missouri Valley. ...Central Plains/Southern and Central High Plains/Mid Missouri Valley... The latest water vapor imagery shows an upper-level low over the eastern Dakotas, with a shortwave trough extending southward from the low into the central Plains. At the surface, a cold front is located from western Nebraska into southeastern South Dakota, along which a marginal severe threat will continue this evening. Further southeastward into the warm sector, a couple convective systems are ongoing along and to the east of the shortwave trough. An organized line segment is located in far southeast Nebraska, along the western edge of a corridor of moderate instability, where the RAP is analyzing MLCAPE in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. WSR-88D VWPs in this area have southeasterly winds at the surface, with winds gradually veering to westerly in the mid-levels. This wind profile will continue to be favorable for linear organization, and a wind-damage threat is expected to continue in the vicinity of far southeast Nebraska and far northwest Missouri this evening. Hail will also likely accompany the stronger cells embedded in this line. Further to the southwest into west-central Kansas, a severe convective cluster is also ongoing along and to the east of a north-to-south corridor of moderate instability. Near this area, the RAP is analyzing MLCAPE in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. This convection is located just to the north of the Dodge City WSR-88D VWP, which has 0-6 km shear near 40 knots. This shear environment should be enough to continue a threat for supercells this evening. Supercells will likely be capable of isolated large hail. A few severe wind gusts will also be possible. The ongoing convective systems in Kansas and Nebraska are expected to continue into the late evening, but the severe threat should become more isolated with time as instability gradually decreases across the central Plains. ..Broyles.. 07/07/2024 Read more

WW 0510 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 510 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..MOORE..07/07/24 ATTN...WFO...DDC... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 510 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC007-025-033-047-055-057-069-083-097-145-151-185-070140- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBER CLARK COMANCHE EDWARDS FINNEY FORD GRAY HODGEMAN KIOWA PAWNEE PRATT STAFFORD THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more