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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. Additionally, Sundowner winds will result in locally elevated fire-weather conditions across portions of southern CA -- especially over Santa Barbara County during the overnight hours. However, these conditions appear too localized for highlights at this time. Farther east, isolated high-based/dry thunderstorms are possible over the Central Rockies during the afternoon, given an inverted-V thermodynamic profile. While an isolated lightning-induced ignition cannot be ruled out over dry fuels, the threat appears fairly localized for highlights. ..Weinman/Halbert.. 07/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024/ ...Synopsis... Generally light west to northwesterly winds are expected across the western US on Tuesday, owing to amplified high pressure aloft. Very warm and dry conditions, with afternoon relative humidity reductions to 5-15 percent, are expected across much of the region. Though conditions will be warm and dry, generally light winds preclude the need to include any areas with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. Additionally, Sundowner winds will result in locally elevated fire-weather conditions across portions of southern CA -- especially over Santa Barbara County during the overnight hours. However, these conditions appear too localized for highlights at this time. Farther east, isolated high-based/dry thunderstorms are possible over the Central Rockies during the afternoon, given an inverted-V thermodynamic profile. While an isolated lightning-induced ignition cannot be ruled out over dry fuels, the threat appears fairly localized for highlights. ..Weinman/Halbert.. 07/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024/ ...Synopsis... Generally light west to northwesterly winds are expected across the western US on Tuesday, owing to amplified high pressure aloft. Very warm and dry conditions, with afternoon relative humidity reductions to 5-15 percent, are expected across much of the region. Though conditions will be warm and dry, generally light winds preclude the need to include any areas with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. Additionally, Sundowner winds will result in locally elevated fire-weather conditions across portions of southern CA -- especially over Santa Barbara County during the overnight hours. However, these conditions appear too localized for highlights at this time. Farther east, isolated high-based/dry thunderstorms are possible over the Central Rockies during the afternoon, given an inverted-V thermodynamic profile. While an isolated lightning-induced ignition cannot be ruled out over dry fuels, the threat appears fairly localized for highlights. ..Weinman/Halbert.. 07/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024/ ...Synopsis... Generally light west to northwesterly winds are expected across the western US on Tuesday, owing to amplified high pressure aloft. Very warm and dry conditions, with afternoon relative humidity reductions to 5-15 percent, are expected across much of the region. Though conditions will be warm and dry, generally light winds preclude the need to include any areas with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. Additionally, Sundowner winds will result in locally elevated fire-weather conditions across portions of southern CA -- especially over Santa Barbara County during the overnight hours. However, these conditions appear too localized for highlights at this time. Farther east, isolated high-based/dry thunderstorms are possible over the Central Rockies during the afternoon, given an inverted-V thermodynamic profile. While an isolated lightning-induced ignition cannot be ruled out over dry fuels, the threat appears fairly localized for highlights. ..Weinman/Halbert.. 07/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024/ ...Synopsis... Generally light west to northwesterly winds are expected across the western US on Tuesday, owing to amplified high pressure aloft. Very warm and dry conditions, with afternoon relative humidity reductions to 5-15 percent, are expected across much of the region. Though conditions will be warm and dry, generally light winds preclude the need to include any areas with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. Additionally, Sundowner winds will result in locally elevated fire-weather conditions across portions of southern CA -- especially over Santa Barbara County during the overnight hours. However, these conditions appear too localized for highlights at this time. Farther east, isolated high-based/dry thunderstorms are possible over the Central Rockies during the afternoon, given an inverted-V thermodynamic profile. While an isolated lightning-induced ignition cannot be ruled out over dry fuels, the threat appears fairly localized for highlights. ..Weinman/Halbert.. 07/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024/ ...Synopsis... Generally light west to northwesterly winds are expected across the western US on Tuesday, owing to amplified high pressure aloft. Very warm and dry conditions, with afternoon relative humidity reductions to 5-15 percent, are expected across much of the region. Though conditions will be warm and dry, generally light winds preclude the need to include any areas with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. Additionally, Sundowner winds will result in locally elevated fire-weather conditions across portions of southern CA -- especially over Santa Barbara County during the overnight hours. However, these conditions appear too localized for highlights at this time. Farther east, isolated high-based/dry thunderstorms are possible over the Central Rockies during the afternoon, given an inverted-V thermodynamic profile. While an isolated lightning-induced ignition cannot be ruled out over dry fuels, the threat appears fairly localized for highlights. ..Weinman/Halbert.. 07/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024/ ...Synopsis... Generally light west to northwesterly winds are expected across the western US on Tuesday, owing to amplified high pressure aloft. Very warm and dry conditions, with afternoon relative humidity reductions to 5-15 percent, are expected across much of the region. Though conditions will be warm and dry, generally light winds preclude the need to include any areas with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

Water conservation was encouraged in Whiteville with customers being asked to curb their water use by 10% compared with last month’s bill. WWAY-TV ABC 3 Wilmington (N.C.), July 8, 2024

WW 0514 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 514 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW BPT TO 30 ESE LFK TO 40 N LFK TO 30 SSE TYR. ..KERR..07/08/24 ATTN...WFO...SHV...LCH...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 514 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC027-057-073-081-091-099-139-081940- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COLUMBIA HEMPSTEAD LAFAYETTE LITTLE RIVER MILLER NEVADA UNION LAC003-011-013-015-017-019-023-027-031-043-049-053-061-069-079- 081-085-111-115-119-127-081940- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN BEAUREGARD BIENVILLE BOSSIER CADDO CALCASIEU CAMERON CLAIBORNE DE SOTO GRANT JACKSON JEFFERSON DAVIS LINCOLN NATCHITOCHES RAPIDES RED RIVER SABINE UNION VERNON WEBSTER WINN Read more

MD 1558 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 514... FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN/WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 1558 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1119 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Areas affected...parts of southeastern Texas and southwestern/west central Louisiana Concerning...Tornado Watch 514... Valid 081619Z - 081815Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 514 continues. SUMMARY...Within and ahead of outer bands of Beryl, the risk for supercells with potential to produce tornadoes may undergo a substantive increase through 1-3 PM CDT. DISCUSSION...The low-level circulation center of Beryl is progressing slowly northward, near/west through north of the Houston Intercontinental vicinity. VWP data from KGHX indicates that low-level wind fields have veered to a south-southwesterly component with hodographs becoming more linear, and downward mixing of drier air is lowering surface dew points into the lower 70s F across much of the Greater Houston area. On the eastern to northeastern periphery of Beryl, surface dew points continue to rise through the upper 70s F, in the presence of enlarging clockwise-curved low-level hodographs closer to the Sabine River and into southwestern and west central Louisiana. Coupled with further boundary-layer destabilization, aided by daytime heating beneath the eastern periphery of the mid-level warm core, the potential for tornadoes may begin to substantively increase through 18-20Z. This may include with evolving supercells within the north-northeastward pivoting outer bands, and perhaps discretely to their north and east. ..Kerr.. 07/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV... LAT...LON 31769433 31849367 30649208 29619213 29799322 29949397 30699407 31199455 31769433 Read more

WW 0514 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 514 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW BPT TO 30 SE LFK TO 40 NW LFK. ..KERR..07/08/24 ATTN...WFO...SHV...LCH...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 514 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC027-057-073-081-091-099-139-081840- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COLUMBIA HEMPSTEAD LAFAYETTE LITTLE RIVER MILLER NEVADA UNION LAC003-011-013-015-017-019-023-027-031-043-049-053-061-069-079- 081-085-111-115-119-127-081840- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN BEAUREGARD BIENVILLE BOSSIER CADDO CALCASIEU CAMERON CLAIBORNE DE SOTO GRANT JACKSON JEFFERSON DAVIS LINCOLN NATCHITOCHES RAPIDES RED RIVER SABINE UNION VERNON WEBSTER WINN Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1212 PM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER AND MIDDLE OH VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms may produce a few damaging gusts or tornadoes across portions of the Mid-South into the Ohio Valley tomorrow (Tuesday). A few instances of hail or strong wind gusts are also possible over portions of New England. ...Synopsis... Upper troughing is forecast to extend across the central CONUS early Tuesday morning, with the remnants of TC Beryl within the southeastern portion of this troughing over the Arklatex vicinity. Some modest eastward progression of this troughing is anticipated throughout the period while the remnants of Beryl track within the eastern periphery of the trough through the Mid MS and Lower/Mid OH Valleys. Farther northeast, a shortwave trough is forecast to move quickly eastward across Quebec, with the southern periphery of this trough glancing the Northeast during the afternoon and evening. Farther west, upper ridging will begin the period extended from southern CA/Lower CO River Valley into the Pacific Northwest. This ridging will likely build throughout the period, extending over much of the western CONUS and into the Canadian Prairie Provinces by early Wednesday morning. ...Mid MS Valley into Lower/Middle OH Valley... Surface low associated with the remnants of TC Beryl will likely begin the period over southern/central AR before tracking northeastward throughout the day. This low is forecast to be near the confluence of the OH and MS rivers 00Z Wednesday and central IN by 12Z Wednesday. Tropical airmass accompanying this system will bring 70s dewpoints into the Mid MS and Lower/Middle OH Valleys just ahead of the surface low, contributing to destabilization and modest buoyancy despite widespread cloud cover. Thunderstorms are anticipated throughout the period along and ahead of this system, particularly within its northeastern quadrant where convergence along the warm front will augment lift. As is typical within tropical environments, the duration of strong updrafts will likely be transient/short-lived with a predominantly multicellular storm mode. However, strong low to mid-level flow will persist throughout the eastern periphery of Post-TC Beryl, contributing to relatively large curvature within the lowest 1 to 2 km of the hodograph. This low-level shear could support brief tornadogenesis within any deeper updrafts. Ambient low-level vorticity along the warm front could augment this low-level shear, perhaps increasing the tornado potential immediately along the front. Highest tornado threat is anticipated along the southern OH River vicinity (i.e. southern IL, southwest IN, and western KY) from 20-00Z before shifting more northeastward into more of southern IN and the Louisville vicinity from 00-04Z. ...Portions of New England... Strong heating will push afternoon temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s. These temperatures amid upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints will result in modest buoyancy, despite relatively warm temperatures aloft and poor lapse rates. Glancing ascent attendant to shortwave trough moving through Quebec will likely result in widely scattered thunderstorm development. Enhanced mid-level flow (i.e. from 40 to 50 kts at 500 mb) is expected to across the Northeast tomorrow, contributing to elongated, mostly straight hodographs and up to 40 kts of deep-layer shear. These kinematic conditions should support multicells and perhaps even brief, transient supercell structures, with a few damaging gusts possible with the strongest storms. Some hail is also possible, particularly across southern ME. ..Mosier.. 07/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1212 PM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER AND MIDDLE OH VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms may produce a few damaging gusts or tornadoes across portions of the Mid-South into the Ohio Valley tomorrow (Tuesday). A few instances of hail or strong wind gusts are also possible over portions of New England. ...Synopsis... Upper troughing is forecast to extend across the central CONUS early Tuesday morning, with the remnants of TC Beryl within the southeastern portion of this troughing over the Arklatex vicinity. Some modest eastward progression of this troughing is anticipated throughout the period while the remnants of Beryl track within the eastern periphery of the trough through the Mid MS and Lower/Mid OH Valleys. Farther northeast, a shortwave trough is forecast to move quickly eastward across Quebec, with the southern periphery of this trough glancing the Northeast during the afternoon and evening. Farther west, upper ridging will begin the period extended from southern CA/Lower CO River Valley into the Pacific Northwest. This ridging will likely build throughout the period, extending over much of the western CONUS and into the Canadian Prairie Provinces by early Wednesday morning. ...Mid MS Valley into Lower/Middle OH Valley... Surface low associated with the remnants of TC Beryl will likely begin the period over southern/central AR before tracking northeastward throughout the day. This low is forecast to be near the confluence of the OH and MS rivers 00Z Wednesday and central IN by 12Z Wednesday. Tropical airmass accompanying this system will bring 70s dewpoints into the Mid MS and Lower/Middle OH Valleys just ahead of the surface low, contributing to destabilization and modest buoyancy despite widespread cloud cover. Thunderstorms are anticipated throughout the period along and ahead of this system, particularly within its northeastern quadrant where convergence along the warm front will augment lift. As is typical within tropical environments, the duration of strong updrafts will likely be transient/short-lived with a predominantly multicellular storm mode. However, strong low to mid-level flow will persist throughout the eastern periphery of Post-TC Beryl, contributing to relatively large curvature within the lowest 1 to 2 km of the hodograph. This low-level shear could support brief tornadogenesis within any deeper updrafts. Ambient low-level vorticity along the warm front could augment this low-level shear, perhaps increasing the tornado potential immediately along the front. Highest tornado threat is anticipated along the southern OH River vicinity (i.e. southern IL, southwest IN, and western KY) from 20-00Z before shifting more northeastward into more of southern IN and the Louisville vicinity from 00-04Z. ...Portions of New England... Strong heating will push afternoon temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s. These temperatures amid upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints will result in modest buoyancy, despite relatively warm temperatures aloft and poor lapse rates. Glancing ascent attendant to shortwave trough moving through Quebec will likely result in widely scattered thunderstorm development. Enhanced mid-level flow (i.e. from 40 to 50 kts at 500 mb) is expected to across the Northeast tomorrow, contributing to elongated, mostly straight hodographs and up to 40 kts of deep-layer shear. These kinematic conditions should support multicells and perhaps even brief, transient supercell structures, with a few damaging gusts possible with the strongest storms. Some hail is also possible, particularly across southern ME. ..Mosier.. 07/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1212 PM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER AND MIDDLE OH VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms may produce a few damaging gusts or tornadoes across portions of the Mid-South into the Ohio Valley tomorrow (Tuesday). A few instances of hail or strong wind gusts are also possible over portions of New England. ...Synopsis... Upper troughing is forecast to extend across the central CONUS early Tuesday morning, with the remnants of TC Beryl within the southeastern portion of this troughing over the Arklatex vicinity. Some modest eastward progression of this troughing is anticipated throughout the period while the remnants of Beryl track within the eastern periphery of the trough through the Mid MS and Lower/Mid OH Valleys. Farther northeast, a shortwave trough is forecast to move quickly eastward across Quebec, with the southern periphery of this trough glancing the Northeast during the afternoon and evening. Farther west, upper ridging will begin the period extended from southern CA/Lower CO River Valley into the Pacific Northwest. This ridging will likely build throughout the period, extending over much of the western CONUS and into the Canadian Prairie Provinces by early Wednesday morning. ...Mid MS Valley into Lower/Middle OH Valley... Surface low associated with the remnants of TC Beryl will likely begin the period over southern/central AR before tracking northeastward throughout the day. This low is forecast to be near the confluence of the OH and MS rivers 00Z Wednesday and central IN by 12Z Wednesday. Tropical airmass accompanying this system will bring 70s dewpoints into the Mid MS and Lower/Middle OH Valleys just ahead of the surface low, contributing to destabilization and modest buoyancy despite widespread cloud cover. Thunderstorms are anticipated throughout the period along and ahead of this system, particularly within its northeastern quadrant where convergence along the warm front will augment lift. As is typical within tropical environments, the duration of strong updrafts will likely be transient/short-lived with a predominantly multicellular storm mode. However, strong low to mid-level flow will persist throughout the eastern periphery of Post-TC Beryl, contributing to relatively large curvature within the lowest 1 to 2 km of the hodograph. This low-level shear could support brief tornadogenesis within any deeper updrafts. Ambient low-level vorticity along the warm front could augment this low-level shear, perhaps increasing the tornado potential immediately along the front. Highest tornado threat is anticipated along the southern OH River vicinity (i.e. southern IL, southwest IN, and western KY) from 20-00Z before shifting more northeastward into more of southern IN and the Louisville vicinity from 00-04Z. ...Portions of New England... Strong heating will push afternoon temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s. These temperatures amid upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints will result in modest buoyancy, despite relatively warm temperatures aloft and poor lapse rates. Glancing ascent attendant to shortwave trough moving through Quebec will likely result in widely scattered thunderstorm development. Enhanced mid-level flow (i.e. from 40 to 50 kts at 500 mb) is expected to across the Northeast tomorrow, contributing to elongated, mostly straight hodographs and up to 40 kts of deep-layer shear. These kinematic conditions should support multicells and perhaps even brief, transient supercell structures, with a few damaging gusts possible with the strongest storms. Some hail is also possible, particularly across southern ME. ..Mosier.. 07/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1212 PM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER AND MIDDLE OH VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms may produce a few damaging gusts or tornadoes across portions of the Mid-South into the Ohio Valley tomorrow (Tuesday). A few instances of hail or strong wind gusts are also possible over portions of New England. ...Synopsis... Upper troughing is forecast to extend across the central CONUS early Tuesday morning, with the remnants of TC Beryl within the southeastern portion of this troughing over the Arklatex vicinity. Some modest eastward progression of this troughing is anticipated throughout the period while the remnants of Beryl track within the eastern periphery of the trough through the Mid MS and Lower/Mid OH Valleys. Farther northeast, a shortwave trough is forecast to move quickly eastward across Quebec, with the southern periphery of this trough glancing the Northeast during the afternoon and evening. Farther west, upper ridging will begin the period extended from southern CA/Lower CO River Valley into the Pacific Northwest. This ridging will likely build throughout the period, extending over much of the western CONUS and into the Canadian Prairie Provinces by early Wednesday morning. ...Mid MS Valley into Lower/Middle OH Valley... Surface low associated with the remnants of TC Beryl will likely begin the period over southern/central AR before tracking northeastward throughout the day. This low is forecast to be near the confluence of the OH and MS rivers 00Z Wednesday and central IN by 12Z Wednesday. Tropical airmass accompanying this system will bring 70s dewpoints into the Mid MS and Lower/Middle OH Valleys just ahead of the surface low, contributing to destabilization and modest buoyancy despite widespread cloud cover. Thunderstorms are anticipated throughout the period along and ahead of this system, particularly within its northeastern quadrant where convergence along the warm front will augment lift. As is typical within tropical environments, the duration of strong updrafts will likely be transient/short-lived with a predominantly multicellular storm mode. However, strong low to mid-level flow will persist throughout the eastern periphery of Post-TC Beryl, contributing to relatively large curvature within the lowest 1 to 2 km of the hodograph. This low-level shear could support brief tornadogenesis within any deeper updrafts. Ambient low-level vorticity along the warm front could augment this low-level shear, perhaps increasing the tornado potential immediately along the front. Highest tornado threat is anticipated along the southern OH River vicinity (i.e. southern IL, southwest IN, and western KY) from 20-00Z before shifting more northeastward into more of southern IN and the Louisville vicinity from 00-04Z. ...Portions of New England... Strong heating will push afternoon temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s. These temperatures amid upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints will result in modest buoyancy, despite relatively warm temperatures aloft and poor lapse rates. Glancing ascent attendant to shortwave trough moving through Quebec will likely result in widely scattered thunderstorm development. Enhanced mid-level flow (i.e. from 40 to 50 kts at 500 mb) is expected to across the Northeast tomorrow, contributing to elongated, mostly straight hodographs and up to 40 kts of deep-layer shear. These kinematic conditions should support multicells and perhaps even brief, transient supercell structures, with a few damaging gusts possible with the strongest storms. Some hail is also possible, particularly across southern ME. ..Mosier.. 07/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1212 PM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER AND MIDDLE OH VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms may produce a few damaging gusts or tornadoes across portions of the Mid-South into the Ohio Valley tomorrow (Tuesday). A few instances of hail or strong wind gusts are also possible over portions of New England. ...Synopsis... Upper troughing is forecast to extend across the central CONUS early Tuesday morning, with the remnants of TC Beryl within the southeastern portion of this troughing over the Arklatex vicinity. Some modest eastward progression of this troughing is anticipated throughout the period while the remnants of Beryl track within the eastern periphery of the trough through the Mid MS and Lower/Mid OH Valleys. Farther northeast, a shortwave trough is forecast to move quickly eastward across Quebec, with the southern periphery of this trough glancing the Northeast during the afternoon and evening. Farther west, upper ridging will begin the period extended from southern CA/Lower CO River Valley into the Pacific Northwest. This ridging will likely build throughout the period, extending over much of the western CONUS and into the Canadian Prairie Provinces by early Wednesday morning. ...Mid MS Valley into Lower/Middle OH Valley... Surface low associated with the remnants of TC Beryl will likely begin the period over southern/central AR before tracking northeastward throughout the day. This low is forecast to be near the confluence of the OH and MS rivers 00Z Wednesday and central IN by 12Z Wednesday. Tropical airmass accompanying this system will bring 70s dewpoints into the Mid MS and Lower/Middle OH Valleys just ahead of the surface low, contributing to destabilization and modest buoyancy despite widespread cloud cover. Thunderstorms are anticipated throughout the period along and ahead of this system, particularly within its northeastern quadrant where convergence along the warm front will augment lift. As is typical within tropical environments, the duration of strong updrafts will likely be transient/short-lived with a predominantly multicellular storm mode. However, strong low to mid-level flow will persist throughout the eastern periphery of Post-TC Beryl, contributing to relatively large curvature within the lowest 1 to 2 km of the hodograph. This low-level shear could support brief tornadogenesis within any deeper updrafts. Ambient low-level vorticity along the warm front could augment this low-level shear, perhaps increasing the tornado potential immediately along the front. Highest tornado threat is anticipated along the southern OH River vicinity (i.e. southern IL, southwest IN, and western KY) from 20-00Z before shifting more northeastward into more of southern IN and the Louisville vicinity from 00-04Z. ...Portions of New England... Strong heating will push afternoon temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s. These temperatures amid upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints will result in modest buoyancy, despite relatively warm temperatures aloft and poor lapse rates. Glancing ascent attendant to shortwave trough moving through Quebec will likely result in widely scattered thunderstorm development. Enhanced mid-level flow (i.e. from 40 to 50 kts at 500 mb) is expected to across the Northeast tomorrow, contributing to elongated, mostly straight hodographs and up to 40 kts of deep-layer shear. These kinematic conditions should support multicells and perhaps even brief, transient supercell structures, with a few damaging gusts possible with the strongest storms. Some hail is also possible, particularly across southern ME. ..Mosier.. 07/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1212 PM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER AND MIDDLE OH VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms may produce a few damaging gusts or tornadoes across portions of the Mid-South into the Ohio Valley tomorrow (Tuesday). A few instances of hail or strong wind gusts are also possible over portions of New England. ...Synopsis... Upper troughing is forecast to extend across the central CONUS early Tuesday morning, with the remnants of TC Beryl within the southeastern portion of this troughing over the Arklatex vicinity. Some modest eastward progression of this troughing is anticipated throughout the period while the remnants of Beryl track within the eastern periphery of the trough through the Mid MS and Lower/Mid OH Valleys. Farther northeast, a shortwave trough is forecast to move quickly eastward across Quebec, with the southern periphery of this trough glancing the Northeast during the afternoon and evening. Farther west, upper ridging will begin the period extended from southern CA/Lower CO River Valley into the Pacific Northwest. This ridging will likely build throughout the period, extending over much of the western CONUS and into the Canadian Prairie Provinces by early Wednesday morning. ...Mid MS Valley into Lower/Middle OH Valley... Surface low associated with the remnants of TC Beryl will likely begin the period over southern/central AR before tracking northeastward throughout the day. This low is forecast to be near the confluence of the OH and MS rivers 00Z Wednesday and central IN by 12Z Wednesday. Tropical airmass accompanying this system will bring 70s dewpoints into the Mid MS and Lower/Middle OH Valleys just ahead of the surface low, contributing to destabilization and modest buoyancy despite widespread cloud cover. Thunderstorms are anticipated throughout the period along and ahead of this system, particularly within its northeastern quadrant where convergence along the warm front will augment lift. As is typical within tropical environments, the duration of strong updrafts will likely be transient/short-lived with a predominantly multicellular storm mode. However, strong low to mid-level flow will persist throughout the eastern periphery of Post-TC Beryl, contributing to relatively large curvature within the lowest 1 to 2 km of the hodograph. This low-level shear could support brief tornadogenesis within any deeper updrafts. Ambient low-level vorticity along the warm front could augment this low-level shear, perhaps increasing the tornado potential immediately along the front. Highest tornado threat is anticipated along the southern OH River vicinity (i.e. southern IL, southwest IN, and western KY) from 20-00Z before shifting more northeastward into more of southern IN and the Louisville vicinity from 00-04Z. ...Portions of New England... Strong heating will push afternoon temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s. These temperatures amid upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints will result in modest buoyancy, despite relatively warm temperatures aloft and poor lapse rates. Glancing ascent attendant to shortwave trough moving through Quebec will likely result in widely scattered thunderstorm development. Enhanced mid-level flow (i.e. from 40 to 50 kts at 500 mb) is expected to across the Northeast tomorrow, contributing to elongated, mostly straight hodographs and up to 40 kts of deep-layer shear. These kinematic conditions should support multicells and perhaps even brief, transient supercell structures, with a few damaging gusts possible with the strongest storms. Some hail is also possible, particularly across southern ME. ..Mosier.. 07/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1212 PM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER AND MIDDLE OH VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms may produce a few damaging gusts or tornadoes across portions of the Mid-South into the Ohio Valley tomorrow (Tuesday). A few instances of hail or strong wind gusts are also possible over portions of New England. ...Synopsis... Upper troughing is forecast to extend across the central CONUS early Tuesday morning, with the remnants of TC Beryl within the southeastern portion of this troughing over the Arklatex vicinity. Some modest eastward progression of this troughing is anticipated throughout the period while the remnants of Beryl track within the eastern periphery of the trough through the Mid MS and Lower/Mid OH Valleys. Farther northeast, a shortwave trough is forecast to move quickly eastward across Quebec, with the southern periphery of this trough glancing the Northeast during the afternoon and evening. Farther west, upper ridging will begin the period extended from southern CA/Lower CO River Valley into the Pacific Northwest. This ridging will likely build throughout the period, extending over much of the western CONUS and into the Canadian Prairie Provinces by early Wednesday morning. ...Mid MS Valley into Lower/Middle OH Valley... Surface low associated with the remnants of TC Beryl will likely begin the period over southern/central AR before tracking northeastward throughout the day. This low is forecast to be near the confluence of the OH and MS rivers 00Z Wednesday and central IN by 12Z Wednesday. Tropical airmass accompanying this system will bring 70s dewpoints into the Mid MS and Lower/Middle OH Valleys just ahead of the surface low, contributing to destabilization and modest buoyancy despite widespread cloud cover. Thunderstorms are anticipated throughout the period along and ahead of this system, particularly within its northeastern quadrant where convergence along the warm front will augment lift. As is typical within tropical environments, the duration of strong updrafts will likely be transient/short-lived with a predominantly multicellular storm mode. However, strong low to mid-level flow will persist throughout the eastern periphery of Post-TC Beryl, contributing to relatively large curvature within the lowest 1 to 2 km of the hodograph. This low-level shear could support brief tornadogenesis within any deeper updrafts. Ambient low-level vorticity along the warm front could augment this low-level shear, perhaps increasing the tornado potential immediately along the front. Highest tornado threat is anticipated along the southern OH River vicinity (i.e. southern IL, southwest IN, and western KY) from 20-00Z before shifting more northeastward into more of southern IN and the Louisville vicinity from 00-04Z. ...Portions of New England... Strong heating will push afternoon temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s. These temperatures amid upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints will result in modest buoyancy, despite relatively warm temperatures aloft and poor lapse rates. Glancing ascent attendant to shortwave trough moving through Quebec will likely result in widely scattered thunderstorm development. Enhanced mid-level flow (i.e. from 40 to 50 kts at 500 mb) is expected to across the Northeast tomorrow, contributing to elongated, mostly straight hodographs and up to 40 kts of deep-layer shear. These kinematic conditions should support multicells and perhaps even brief, transient supercell structures, with a few damaging gusts possible with the strongest storms. Some hail is also possible, particularly across southern ME. ..Mosier.. 07/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1212 PM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER AND MIDDLE OH VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms may produce a few damaging gusts or tornadoes across portions of the Mid-South into the Ohio Valley tomorrow (Tuesday). A few instances of hail or strong wind gusts are also possible over portions of New England. ...Synopsis... Upper troughing is forecast to extend across the central CONUS early Tuesday morning, with the remnants of TC Beryl within the southeastern portion of this troughing over the Arklatex vicinity. Some modest eastward progression of this troughing is anticipated throughout the period while the remnants of Beryl track within the eastern periphery of the trough through the Mid MS and Lower/Mid OH Valleys. Farther northeast, a shortwave trough is forecast to move quickly eastward across Quebec, with the southern periphery of this trough glancing the Northeast during the afternoon and evening. Farther west, upper ridging will begin the period extended from southern CA/Lower CO River Valley into the Pacific Northwest. This ridging will likely build throughout the period, extending over much of the western CONUS and into the Canadian Prairie Provinces by early Wednesday morning. ...Mid MS Valley into Lower/Middle OH Valley... Surface low associated with the remnants of TC Beryl will likely begin the period over southern/central AR before tracking northeastward throughout the day. This low is forecast to be near the confluence of the OH and MS rivers 00Z Wednesday and central IN by 12Z Wednesday. Tropical airmass accompanying this system will bring 70s dewpoints into the Mid MS and Lower/Middle OH Valleys just ahead of the surface low, contributing to destabilization and modest buoyancy despite widespread cloud cover. Thunderstorms are anticipated throughout the period along and ahead of this system, particularly within its northeastern quadrant where convergence along the warm front will augment lift. As is typical within tropical environments, the duration of strong updrafts will likely be transient/short-lived with a predominantly multicellular storm mode. However, strong low to mid-level flow will persist throughout the eastern periphery of Post-TC Beryl, contributing to relatively large curvature within the lowest 1 to 2 km of the hodograph. This low-level shear could support brief tornadogenesis within any deeper updrafts. Ambient low-level vorticity along the warm front could augment this low-level shear, perhaps increasing the tornado potential immediately along the front. Highest tornado threat is anticipated along the southern OH River vicinity (i.e. southern IL, southwest IN, and western KY) from 20-00Z before shifting more northeastward into more of southern IN and the Louisville vicinity from 00-04Z. ...Portions of New England... Strong heating will push afternoon temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s. These temperatures amid upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints will result in modest buoyancy, despite relatively warm temperatures aloft and poor lapse rates. Glancing ascent attendant to shortwave trough moving through Quebec will likely result in widely scattered thunderstorm development. Enhanced mid-level flow (i.e. from 40 to 50 kts at 500 mb) is expected to across the Northeast tomorrow, contributing to elongated, mostly straight hodographs and up to 40 kts of deep-layer shear. These kinematic conditions should support multicells and perhaps even brief, transient supercell structures, with a few damaging gusts possible with the strongest storms. Some hail is also possible, particularly across southern ME. ..Mosier.. 07/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1212 PM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER AND MIDDLE OH VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms may produce a few damaging gusts or tornadoes across portions of the Mid-South into the Ohio Valley tomorrow (Tuesday). A few instances of hail or strong wind gusts are also possible over portions of New England. ...Synopsis... Upper troughing is forecast to extend across the central CONUS early Tuesday morning, with the remnants of TC Beryl within the southeastern portion of this troughing over the Arklatex vicinity. Some modest eastward progression of this troughing is anticipated throughout the period while the remnants of Beryl track within the eastern periphery of the trough through the Mid MS and Lower/Mid OH Valleys. Farther northeast, a shortwave trough is forecast to move quickly eastward across Quebec, with the southern periphery of this trough glancing the Northeast during the afternoon and evening. Farther west, upper ridging will begin the period extended from southern CA/Lower CO River Valley into the Pacific Northwest. This ridging will likely build throughout the period, extending over much of the western CONUS and into the Canadian Prairie Provinces by early Wednesday morning. ...Mid MS Valley into Lower/Middle OH Valley... Surface low associated with the remnants of TC Beryl will likely begin the period over southern/central AR before tracking northeastward throughout the day. This low is forecast to be near the confluence of the OH and MS rivers 00Z Wednesday and central IN by 12Z Wednesday. Tropical airmass accompanying this system will bring 70s dewpoints into the Mid MS and Lower/Middle OH Valleys just ahead of the surface low, contributing to destabilization and modest buoyancy despite widespread cloud cover. Thunderstorms are anticipated throughout the period along and ahead of this system, particularly within its northeastern quadrant where convergence along the warm front will augment lift. As is typical within tropical environments, the duration of strong updrafts will likely be transient/short-lived with a predominantly multicellular storm mode. However, strong low to mid-level flow will persist throughout the eastern periphery of Post-TC Beryl, contributing to relatively large curvature within the lowest 1 to 2 km of the hodograph. This low-level shear could support brief tornadogenesis within any deeper updrafts. Ambient low-level vorticity along the warm front could augment this low-level shear, perhaps increasing the tornado potential immediately along the front. Highest tornado threat is anticipated along the southern OH River vicinity (i.e. southern IL, southwest IN, and western KY) from 20-00Z before shifting more northeastward into more of southern IN and the Louisville vicinity from 00-04Z. ...Portions of New England... Strong heating will push afternoon temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s. These temperatures amid upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints will result in modest buoyancy, despite relatively warm temperatures aloft and poor lapse rates. Glancing ascent attendant to shortwave trough moving through Quebec will likely result in widely scattered thunderstorm development. Enhanced mid-level flow (i.e. from 40 to 50 kts at 500 mb) is expected to across the Northeast tomorrow, contributing to elongated, mostly straight hodographs and up to 40 kts of deep-layer shear. These kinematic conditions should support multicells and perhaps even brief, transient supercell structures, with a few damaging gusts possible with the strongest storms. Some hail is also possible, particularly across southern ME. ..Mosier.. 07/08/2024 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 081704
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Mon Jul 8 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Brown