Aggregator

WW 0514 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0514 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 1557 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 513... FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 1557 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0753 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Areas affected...southeast Texas and southwest Louisiana Concerning...Tornado Watch 513... Valid 081253Z - 081500Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 513 continues. SUMMARY...The tornado threat with Beryl continues today. DISCUSSION...Currently the primary tornado threat is associated with a few bands of supercells across southeast Texas. Some guidance indicates more cellular convection across southwest Louisiana and eastern Texas by later this morning which could pose some tornado threat given the wind profile shown by the LCH VWP. Therefore, when tornado watch 513 expires at 15Z, a new watch may be needed which may also need to be expanded farther inland to cover this threat as it develops northward through the day. ..Bentley/Smith.. 07/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX... LAT...LON 28569511 28989524 29639549 30079568 30689532 31419468 31629417 31739365 31539322 31309293 30399288 29929298 29689310 29529356 29279430 28569511 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Valid 081300Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF EAST TEXAS INTO NORTHWEST LOUISIANA AND FAR SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes will be possible today, in association with Tropical Cyclone Beryl, from southeast Texas into northwest Louisiana and far southwest Arkansas. ...East Texas/Ark-La-Tex/Ozarks/Lower to Mid Mississippi Valley... Tropical Cyclone Beryl will continue moving north across southeast/east TX through the day before moving north-northeast into the Ark-La-Tex tonight per the latest NHC forecast. The extensive rain shield has yielded intermittent periods of transient mini supercell structures within the convective bands early this morning. Thinking this trend will continue during the day across southeast/east TX into western portions of LA. Ample low-level shear for hodograph enlargement will reside over the right-front quadrant of Beryl. Less certain will be the development of moderate buoyancy within the rain shield. Nonetheless, some evolution into more coherent convective banding is expected during the diurnal heating cycle (midday into the early evening) when the risk for several supercell tornadoes will probably be greatest. An isolated tornado threat should continue through the evening and into the overnight period as this risk shifts northward coincident with the movement of Beryl. ...Southwest Texas... At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move across west Texas today. South of the front in the vicinity of Big Bend, surface dewpoints are likely to be from the mid 50s to the lower 60s F. As surface temperature warm across this relatively moist airmass and yield moderate buoyancy. Increasing low-level convergence along the front during the afternoon should enable scattered thunderstorms to develop. A couple of the stronger storms may result in a localized hail/wind risk before this activity weakens this evening. ...Northern NM... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows an upper trough from the Upper Midwest extending southwestward into the CO/NM vicinity. A belt of moderate north-northwest flow will gradually pivot away from the region during the day. However, a relatively moist airmass via easterly upslope/post-frontal flow will combine with strong heating to yield around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. A few stronger storms may develop with a possible localized hail/wind risk for a few hours late this afternoon. ..Smith/Bentley.. 07/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Valid 081300Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF EAST TEXAS INTO NORTHWEST LOUISIANA AND FAR SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes will be possible today, in association with Tropical Cyclone Beryl, from southeast Texas into northwest Louisiana and far southwest Arkansas. ...East Texas/Ark-La-Tex/Ozarks/Lower to Mid Mississippi Valley... Tropical Cyclone Beryl will continue moving north across southeast/east TX through the day before moving north-northeast into the Ark-La-Tex tonight per the latest NHC forecast. The extensive rain shield has yielded intermittent periods of transient mini supercell structures within the convective bands early this morning. Thinking this trend will continue during the day across southeast/east TX into western portions of LA. Ample low-level shear for hodograph enlargement will reside over the right-front quadrant of Beryl. Less certain will be the development of moderate buoyancy within the rain shield. Nonetheless, some evolution into more coherent convective banding is expected during the diurnal heating cycle (midday into the early evening) when the risk for several supercell tornadoes will probably be greatest. An isolated tornado threat should continue through the evening and into the overnight period as this risk shifts northward coincident with the movement of Beryl. ...Southwest Texas... At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move across west Texas today. South of the front in the vicinity of Big Bend, surface dewpoints are likely to be from the mid 50s to the lower 60s F. As surface temperature warm across this relatively moist airmass and yield moderate buoyancy. Increasing low-level convergence along the front during the afternoon should enable scattered thunderstorms to develop. A couple of the stronger storms may result in a localized hail/wind risk before this activity weakens this evening. ...Northern NM... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows an upper trough from the Upper Midwest extending southwestward into the CO/NM vicinity. A belt of moderate north-northwest flow will gradually pivot away from the region during the day. However, a relatively moist airmass via easterly upslope/post-frontal flow will combine with strong heating to yield around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. A few stronger storms may develop with a possible localized hail/wind risk for a few hours late this afternoon. ..Smith/Bentley.. 07/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Valid 081300Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF EAST TEXAS INTO NORTHWEST LOUISIANA AND FAR SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes will be possible today, in association with Tropical Cyclone Beryl, from southeast Texas into northwest Louisiana and far southwest Arkansas. ...East Texas/Ark-La-Tex/Ozarks/Lower to Mid Mississippi Valley... Tropical Cyclone Beryl will continue moving north across southeast/east TX through the day before moving north-northeast into the Ark-La-Tex tonight per the latest NHC forecast. The extensive rain shield has yielded intermittent periods of transient mini supercell structures within the convective bands early this morning. Thinking this trend will continue during the day across southeast/east TX into western portions of LA. Ample low-level shear for hodograph enlargement will reside over the right-front quadrant of Beryl. Less certain will be the development of moderate buoyancy within the rain shield. Nonetheless, some evolution into more coherent convective banding is expected during the diurnal heating cycle (midday into the early evening) when the risk for several supercell tornadoes will probably be greatest. An isolated tornado threat should continue through the evening and into the overnight period as this risk shifts northward coincident with the movement of Beryl. ...Southwest Texas... At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move across west Texas today. South of the front in the vicinity of Big Bend, surface dewpoints are likely to be from the mid 50s to the lower 60s F. As surface temperature warm across this relatively moist airmass and yield moderate buoyancy. Increasing low-level convergence along the front during the afternoon should enable scattered thunderstorms to develop. A couple of the stronger storms may result in a localized hail/wind risk before this activity weakens this evening. ...Northern NM... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows an upper trough from the Upper Midwest extending southwestward into the CO/NM vicinity. A belt of moderate north-northwest flow will gradually pivot away from the region during the day. However, a relatively moist airmass via easterly upslope/post-frontal flow will combine with strong heating to yield around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. A few stronger storms may develop with a possible localized hail/wind risk for a few hours late this afternoon. ..Smith/Bentley.. 07/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Valid 081300Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF EAST TEXAS INTO NORTHWEST LOUISIANA AND FAR SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes will be possible today, in association with Tropical Cyclone Beryl, from southeast Texas into northwest Louisiana and far southwest Arkansas. ...East Texas/Ark-La-Tex/Ozarks/Lower to Mid Mississippi Valley... Tropical Cyclone Beryl will continue moving north across southeast/east TX through the day before moving north-northeast into the Ark-La-Tex tonight per the latest NHC forecast. The extensive rain shield has yielded intermittent periods of transient mini supercell structures within the convective bands early this morning. Thinking this trend will continue during the day across southeast/east TX into western portions of LA. Ample low-level shear for hodograph enlargement will reside over the right-front quadrant of Beryl. Less certain will be the development of moderate buoyancy within the rain shield. Nonetheless, some evolution into more coherent convective banding is expected during the diurnal heating cycle (midday into the early evening) when the risk for several supercell tornadoes will probably be greatest. An isolated tornado threat should continue through the evening and into the overnight period as this risk shifts northward coincident with the movement of Beryl. ...Southwest Texas... At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move across west Texas today. South of the front in the vicinity of Big Bend, surface dewpoints are likely to be from the mid 50s to the lower 60s F. As surface temperature warm across this relatively moist airmass and yield moderate buoyancy. Increasing low-level convergence along the front during the afternoon should enable scattered thunderstorms to develop. A couple of the stronger storms may result in a localized hail/wind risk before this activity weakens this evening. ...Northern NM... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows an upper trough from the Upper Midwest extending southwestward into the CO/NM vicinity. A belt of moderate north-northwest flow will gradually pivot away from the region during the day. However, a relatively moist airmass via easterly upslope/post-frontal flow will combine with strong heating to yield around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. A few stronger storms may develop with a possible localized hail/wind risk for a few hours late this afternoon. ..Smith/Bentley.. 07/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Valid 081300Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF EAST TEXAS INTO NORTHWEST LOUISIANA AND FAR SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes will be possible today, in association with Tropical Cyclone Beryl, from southeast Texas into northwest Louisiana and far southwest Arkansas. ...East Texas/Ark-La-Tex/Ozarks/Lower to Mid Mississippi Valley... Tropical Cyclone Beryl will continue moving north across southeast/east TX through the day before moving north-northeast into the Ark-La-Tex tonight per the latest NHC forecast. The extensive rain shield has yielded intermittent periods of transient mini supercell structures within the convective bands early this morning. Thinking this trend will continue during the day across southeast/east TX into western portions of LA. Ample low-level shear for hodograph enlargement will reside over the right-front quadrant of Beryl. Less certain will be the development of moderate buoyancy within the rain shield. Nonetheless, some evolution into more coherent convective banding is expected during the diurnal heating cycle (midday into the early evening) when the risk for several supercell tornadoes will probably be greatest. An isolated tornado threat should continue through the evening and into the overnight period as this risk shifts northward coincident with the movement of Beryl. ...Southwest Texas... At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move across west Texas today. South of the front in the vicinity of Big Bend, surface dewpoints are likely to be from the mid 50s to the lower 60s F. As surface temperature warm across this relatively moist airmass and yield moderate buoyancy. Increasing low-level convergence along the front during the afternoon should enable scattered thunderstorms to develop. A couple of the stronger storms may result in a localized hail/wind risk before this activity weakens this evening. ...Northern NM... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows an upper trough from the Upper Midwest extending southwestward into the CO/NM vicinity. A belt of moderate north-northwest flow will gradually pivot away from the region during the day. However, a relatively moist airmass via easterly upslope/post-frontal flow will combine with strong heating to yield around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. A few stronger storms may develop with a possible localized hail/wind risk for a few hours late this afternoon. ..Smith/Bentley.. 07/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Valid 081300Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF EAST TEXAS INTO NORTHWEST LOUISIANA AND FAR SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes will be possible today, in association with Tropical Cyclone Beryl, from southeast Texas into northwest Louisiana and far southwest Arkansas. ...East Texas/Ark-La-Tex/Ozarks/Lower to Mid Mississippi Valley... Tropical Cyclone Beryl will continue moving north across southeast/east TX through the day before moving north-northeast into the Ark-La-Tex tonight per the latest NHC forecast. The extensive rain shield has yielded intermittent periods of transient mini supercell structures within the convective bands early this morning. Thinking this trend will continue during the day across southeast/east TX into western portions of LA. Ample low-level shear for hodograph enlargement will reside over the right-front quadrant of Beryl. Less certain will be the development of moderate buoyancy within the rain shield. Nonetheless, some evolution into more coherent convective banding is expected during the diurnal heating cycle (midday into the early evening) when the risk for several supercell tornadoes will probably be greatest. An isolated tornado threat should continue through the evening and into the overnight period as this risk shifts northward coincident with the movement of Beryl. ...Southwest Texas... At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move across west Texas today. South of the front in the vicinity of Big Bend, surface dewpoints are likely to be from the mid 50s to the lower 60s F. As surface temperature warm across this relatively moist airmass and yield moderate buoyancy. Increasing low-level convergence along the front during the afternoon should enable scattered thunderstorms to develop. A couple of the stronger storms may result in a localized hail/wind risk before this activity weakens this evening. ...Northern NM... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows an upper trough from the Upper Midwest extending southwestward into the CO/NM vicinity. A belt of moderate north-northwest flow will gradually pivot away from the region during the day. However, a relatively moist airmass via easterly upslope/post-frontal flow will combine with strong heating to yield around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. A few stronger storms may develop with a possible localized hail/wind risk for a few hours late this afternoon. ..Smith/Bentley.. 07/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Valid 081300Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF EAST TEXAS INTO NORTHWEST LOUISIANA AND FAR SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes will be possible today, in association with Tropical Cyclone Beryl, from southeast Texas into northwest Louisiana and far southwest Arkansas. ...East Texas/Ark-La-Tex/Ozarks/Lower to Mid Mississippi Valley... Tropical Cyclone Beryl will continue moving north across southeast/east TX through the day before moving north-northeast into the Ark-La-Tex tonight per the latest NHC forecast. The extensive rain shield has yielded intermittent periods of transient mini supercell structures within the convective bands early this morning. Thinking this trend will continue during the day across southeast/east TX into western portions of LA. Ample low-level shear for hodograph enlargement will reside over the right-front quadrant of Beryl. Less certain will be the development of moderate buoyancy within the rain shield. Nonetheless, some evolution into more coherent convective banding is expected during the diurnal heating cycle (midday into the early evening) when the risk for several supercell tornadoes will probably be greatest. An isolated tornado threat should continue through the evening and into the overnight period as this risk shifts northward coincident with the movement of Beryl. ...Southwest Texas... At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move across west Texas today. South of the front in the vicinity of Big Bend, surface dewpoints are likely to be from the mid 50s to the lower 60s F. As surface temperature warm across this relatively moist airmass and yield moderate buoyancy. Increasing low-level convergence along the front during the afternoon should enable scattered thunderstorms to develop. A couple of the stronger storms may result in a localized hail/wind risk before this activity weakens this evening. ...Northern NM... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows an upper trough from the Upper Midwest extending southwestward into the CO/NM vicinity. A belt of moderate north-northwest flow will gradually pivot away from the region during the day. However, a relatively moist airmass via easterly upslope/post-frontal flow will combine with strong heating to yield around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. A few stronger storms may develop with a possible localized hail/wind risk for a few hours late this afternoon. ..Smith/Bentley.. 07/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Valid 081300Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF EAST TEXAS INTO NORTHWEST LOUISIANA AND FAR SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes will be possible today, in association with Tropical Cyclone Beryl, from southeast Texas into northwest Louisiana and far southwest Arkansas. ...East Texas/Ark-La-Tex/Ozarks/Lower to Mid Mississippi Valley... Tropical Cyclone Beryl will continue moving north across southeast/east TX through the day before moving north-northeast into the Ark-La-Tex tonight per the latest NHC forecast. The extensive rain shield has yielded intermittent periods of transient mini supercell structures within the convective bands early this morning. Thinking this trend will continue during the day across southeast/east TX into western portions of LA. Ample low-level shear for hodograph enlargement will reside over the right-front quadrant of Beryl. Less certain will be the development of moderate buoyancy within the rain shield. Nonetheless, some evolution into more coherent convective banding is expected during the diurnal heating cycle (midday into the early evening) when the risk for several supercell tornadoes will probably be greatest. An isolated tornado threat should continue through the evening and into the overnight period as this risk shifts northward coincident with the movement of Beryl. ...Southwest Texas... At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move across west Texas today. South of the front in the vicinity of Big Bend, surface dewpoints are likely to be from the mid 50s to the lower 60s F. As surface temperature warm across this relatively moist airmass and yield moderate buoyancy. Increasing low-level convergence along the front during the afternoon should enable scattered thunderstorms to develop. A couple of the stronger storms may result in a localized hail/wind risk before this activity weakens this evening. ...Northern NM... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows an upper trough from the Upper Midwest extending southwestward into the CO/NM vicinity. A belt of moderate north-northwest flow will gradually pivot away from the region during the day. However, a relatively moist airmass via easterly upslope/post-frontal flow will combine with strong heating to yield around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. A few stronger storms may develop with a possible localized hail/wind risk for a few hours late this afternoon. ..Smith/Bentley.. 07/08/2024 Read more

WW 0513 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 513 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SE PSX TO 35 S LBX TO 20 WNW LBX TO 45 S CLL. ..BENTLEY..07/08/24 ATTN...WFO...HGX...LCH... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 513 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC039-071-157-167-199-201-245-291-339-081340- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRAZORIA CHAMBERS FORT BEND GALVESTON HARDIN HARRIS JEFFERSON LIBERTY MONTGOMERY GMZ335-355-450-081340- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE GALVESTON BAY COASTAL WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT TX OUT 20 NM COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES Read more

WW 0513 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 513 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SE PSX TO 35 S LBX TO 20 WNW LBX TO 45 S CLL. ..BENTLEY..07/08/24 ATTN...WFO...HGX...LCH... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 513 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC039-071-157-167-199-201-245-291-339-081340- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRAZORIA CHAMBERS FORT BEND GALVESTON HARDIN HARRIS JEFFERSON LIBERTY MONTGOMERY GMZ335-355-450-081340- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE GALVESTON BAY COASTAL WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT TX OUT 20 NM COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES Read more

WW 0513 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 513 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SE PSX TO 35 S LBX TO 20 WNW LBX TO 45 S CLL. ..BENTLEY..07/08/24 ATTN...WFO...HGX...LCH... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 513 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC039-071-157-167-199-201-245-291-339-081340- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRAZORIA CHAMBERS FORT BEND GALVESTON HARDIN HARRIS JEFFERSON LIBERTY MONTGOMERY GMZ335-355-450-081340- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE GALVESTON BAY COASTAL WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT TX OUT 20 NM COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES Read more

WW 0513 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 513 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SE PSX TO 35 S LBX TO 20 WNW LBX TO 45 S CLL. ..BENTLEY..07/08/24 ATTN...WFO...HGX...LCH... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 513 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC039-071-157-167-199-201-245-291-339-081340- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRAZORIA CHAMBERS FORT BEND GALVESTON HARDIN HARRIS JEFFERSON LIBERTY MONTGOMERY GMZ335-355-450-081340- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE GALVESTON BAY COASTAL WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT TX OUT 20 NM COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES Read more

WW 513 TORNADO TX CW 080345Z - 081500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 513 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1045 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Upper Texas Coast Coastal Waters * Effective this Sunday night and Monday morning from 1045 PM until 1000 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Tropical Storm Beryl will move ashore overnight. Embedded thunderstorms in the rainbands to the east of the center will pose a risk of isolated tornadoes through Monday morning. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles east and west of a line from 50 miles south of Angleton TX to 60 miles north northeast of Houston TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 511...WW 512... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 14040. ...Hart Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 081132
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Mon Jul 8 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Blake

MD 1556 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 1556 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0438 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Areas affected...eastern New Mexico into the western Texas Panhandle Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 080938Z - 081115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Several supercells have formed and may pose a large hail threat for a few hours as they move east-southeast early this morning. DISCUSSION...Elevated supercells have developed across eastern New Mexico as a mid-level trough approaches from the northwest. These storms have developed in a region with modest, but sufficient instability (1000 J/kg MUCAPE) and moderate shear (35-40 knots) per SPC mesoanalysis. Expect this environment to shift slowly east which may allow for some stronger storms to persist into the western Texas Panhandle near daybreak. MRMS MESH suggests 2+ inch hail is possible in some of the larger cores. This seems significantly overestimated, but some 1 to 1.5 inch hail is possible. This threat is expected to be too isolated/short lived for a severe thunderstorm watch. ..Bentley/Smith.. 07/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...ABQ... LAT...LON 35570484 35760425 35810385 35890317 35840283 35730246 35620235 34870217 34260236 34060288 34080368 34450457 34830486 35570484 Read more

MD 1555 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 513... FOR THE TEXAS COAST NEAR GALVESTON ISLAND
Mesoscale Discussion 1555 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Areas affected...The Texas Coast near Galveston Island Concerning...Tornado Watch 513... Valid 080722Z - 080915Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 513 continues. SUMMARY...The greatest tornado threat with Hurricane Beryl will exist in the vicinity of Galveston Island over the next few hours. DISCUSSION...Two outer rain bands with embedded mini-supercells are rotating inland near Galveston Island early this evening. One of these storms produced an apparent tornado debris signature as it crossed the southern part of the island. As these rotating storms continue to pivot inland this morning, expect a continued tornado threat. However, this threat is expected to remain mostly confined to areas near the coast where the best wind profile and instability exists. Expect the greatest tornado threat to shift north through the early morning hours as outer bands shift north due to Hurricane Beryl's continued northward movement. ..Bentley.. 07/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...HGX... LAT...LON 29009519 29079532 29289520 29509497 29509472 29439466 29349466 29209476 29099495 29009519 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0328 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... Guidance consensus shows a mid-level trough de-amplifying over the Northeast toward the end of the week as a pronounced mid-level ridge builds over the CONUS this weekend into early next week. While vertical wind profiles will remain weak overall across most of the CONUS, strong mid-level flow associated with an embedded impulse will pivot around the ridge and traverse the north-central CONUS this weekend. Preceding this impulse will be a fetch of rich low-level moisture beneath a plume of steep mid-level lapse rates driven by the approach of an EML. Medium-range guidance agrees that strong to extreme instability will develop ahead of the mid-level impulse over the Upper MS Valley into the Great Lakes region. However, substantial differences exist between the placement and timing of the mid-level impulse and associated key surface features (i.e. trough and boundaries). Given strong capping with the EML, mesoscale forcing along low-level boundaries will likely be key to initiating convection and supporting a severe threat. With considerable uncertainty this far in advance, no severe probabilities have been introduced. However, climatology suggests that the aforementioned synoptic setup could support an appreciable severe threat, including damaging-wind producing bow-echo MCSs. As such, 15 percent probabilities may be introduced in future outlooks for the upcoming weekend across portions of the Northern Plains into the Great Lakes, if better model agreement in the timing of the mid-level impulse, and associate surface boundaries, can be achieved. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0328 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... Guidance consensus shows a mid-level trough de-amplifying over the Northeast toward the end of the week as a pronounced mid-level ridge builds over the CONUS this weekend into early next week. While vertical wind profiles will remain weak overall across most of the CONUS, strong mid-level flow associated with an embedded impulse will pivot around the ridge and traverse the north-central CONUS this weekend. Preceding this impulse will be a fetch of rich low-level moisture beneath a plume of steep mid-level lapse rates driven by the approach of an EML. Medium-range guidance agrees that strong to extreme instability will develop ahead of the mid-level impulse over the Upper MS Valley into the Great Lakes region. However, substantial differences exist between the placement and timing of the mid-level impulse and associated key surface features (i.e. trough and boundaries). Given strong capping with the EML, mesoscale forcing along low-level boundaries will likely be key to initiating convection and supporting a severe threat. With considerable uncertainty this far in advance, no severe probabilities have been introduced. However, climatology suggests that the aforementioned synoptic setup could support an appreciable severe threat, including damaging-wind producing bow-echo MCSs. As such, 15 percent probabilities may be introduced in future outlooks for the upcoming weekend across portions of the Northern Plains into the Great Lakes, if better model agreement in the timing of the mid-level impulse, and associate surface boundaries, can be achieved. Read more