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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH... The forecast remains on track, and only minor changes were made to the Critical area in southern/central UT -- based on the latest high-resolution guidance. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 07/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough is expected to remain over the central CONUS with a shortwave trough and associated mid-level speed max traversing the Great Basin and southwestern CONUS through the day on Sunday. This will promote gusty winds and strong mixing with low RH on Sunday afternoon across parts of the Great Basin, with gusts to 30-40 mph and RH in the 5-10% range. Fuels in this region are at least modestly receptive, and therefore an Elevated area has been introduced. Inside this area, some pockets of more receptive fuels across southern Utah are apparent, and therefore a Critical area has also been added. Elsewhere, localized, transient Elevated conditions may occur in gaps in both the coastal range of southern California and the Cascades in Oregon. However, confidence in sustained breezy conditions is not high enough to introduce highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH... The forecast remains on track, and only minor changes were made to the Critical area in southern/central UT -- based on the latest high-resolution guidance. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 07/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough is expected to remain over the central CONUS with a shortwave trough and associated mid-level speed max traversing the Great Basin and southwestern CONUS through the day on Sunday. This will promote gusty winds and strong mixing with low RH on Sunday afternoon across parts of the Great Basin, with gusts to 30-40 mph and RH in the 5-10% range. Fuels in this region are at least modestly receptive, and therefore an Elevated area has been introduced. Inside this area, some pockets of more receptive fuels across southern Utah are apparent, and therefore a Critical area has also been added. Elsewhere, localized, transient Elevated conditions may occur in gaps in both the coastal range of southern California and the Cascades in Oregon. However, confidence in sustained breezy conditions is not high enough to introduce highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH... The forecast remains on track, and only minor changes were made to the Critical area in southern/central UT -- based on the latest high-resolution guidance. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 07/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough is expected to remain over the central CONUS with a shortwave trough and associated mid-level speed max traversing the Great Basin and southwestern CONUS through the day on Sunday. This will promote gusty winds and strong mixing with low RH on Sunday afternoon across parts of the Great Basin, with gusts to 30-40 mph and RH in the 5-10% range. Fuels in this region are at least modestly receptive, and therefore an Elevated area has been introduced. Inside this area, some pockets of more receptive fuels across southern Utah are apparent, and therefore a Critical area has also been added. Elsewhere, localized, transient Elevated conditions may occur in gaps in both the coastal range of southern California and the Cascades in Oregon. However, confidence in sustained breezy conditions is not high enough to introduce highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH... The forecast remains on track, and only minor changes were made to the Critical area in southern/central UT -- based on the latest high-resolution guidance. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 07/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough is expected to remain over the central CONUS with a shortwave trough and associated mid-level speed max traversing the Great Basin and southwestern CONUS through the day on Sunday. This will promote gusty winds and strong mixing with low RH on Sunday afternoon across parts of the Great Basin, with gusts to 30-40 mph and RH in the 5-10% range. Fuels in this region are at least modestly receptive, and therefore an Elevated area has been introduced. Inside this area, some pockets of more receptive fuels across southern Utah are apparent, and therefore a Critical area has also been added. Elsewhere, localized, transient Elevated conditions may occur in gaps in both the coastal range of southern California and the Cascades in Oregon. However, confidence in sustained breezy conditions is not high enough to introduce highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH... The forecast remains on track, and only minor changes were made to the Critical area in southern/central UT -- based on the latest high-resolution guidance. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 07/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough is expected to remain over the central CONUS with a shortwave trough and associated mid-level speed max traversing the Great Basin and southwestern CONUS through the day on Sunday. This will promote gusty winds and strong mixing with low RH on Sunday afternoon across parts of the Great Basin, with gusts to 30-40 mph and RH in the 5-10% range. Fuels in this region are at least modestly receptive, and therefore an Elevated area has been introduced. Inside this area, some pockets of more receptive fuels across southern Utah are apparent, and therefore a Critical area has also been added. Elsewhere, localized, transient Elevated conditions may occur in gaps in both the coastal range of southern California and the Cascades in Oregon. However, confidence in sustained breezy conditions is not high enough to introduce highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH... The forecast remains on track, and only minor changes were made to the Critical area in southern/central UT -- based on the latest high-resolution guidance. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 07/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough is expected to remain over the central CONUS with a shortwave trough and associated mid-level speed max traversing the Great Basin and southwestern CONUS through the day on Sunday. This will promote gusty winds and strong mixing with low RH on Sunday afternoon across parts of the Great Basin, with gusts to 30-40 mph and RH in the 5-10% range. Fuels in this region are at least modestly receptive, and therefore an Elevated area has been introduced. Inside this area, some pockets of more receptive fuels across southern Utah are apparent, and therefore a Critical area has also been added. Elsewhere, localized, transient Elevated conditions may occur in gaps in both the coastal range of southern California and the Cascades in Oregon. However, confidence in sustained breezy conditions is not high enough to introduce highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH... The forecast remains on track, and only minor changes were made to the Critical area in southern/central UT -- based on the latest high-resolution guidance. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 07/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough is expected to remain over the central CONUS with a shortwave trough and associated mid-level speed max traversing the Great Basin and southwestern CONUS through the day on Sunday. This will promote gusty winds and strong mixing with low RH on Sunday afternoon across parts of the Great Basin, with gusts to 30-40 mph and RH in the 5-10% range. Fuels in this region are at least modestly receptive, and therefore an Elevated area has been introduced. Inside this area, some pockets of more receptive fuels across southern Utah are apparent, and therefore a Critical area has also been added. Elsewhere, localized, transient Elevated conditions may occur in gaps in both the coastal range of southern California and the Cascades in Oregon. However, confidence in sustained breezy conditions is not high enough to introduce highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH... The forecast remains on track, and only minor changes were made to the Critical area in southern/central UT -- based on the latest high-resolution guidance. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 07/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough is expected to remain over the central CONUS with a shortwave trough and associated mid-level speed max traversing the Great Basin and southwestern CONUS through the day on Sunday. This will promote gusty winds and strong mixing with low RH on Sunday afternoon across parts of the Great Basin, with gusts to 30-40 mph and RH in the 5-10% range. Fuels in this region are at least modestly receptive, and therefore an Elevated area has been introduced. Inside this area, some pockets of more receptive fuels across southern Utah are apparent, and therefore a Critical area has also been added. Elsewhere, localized, transient Elevated conditions may occur in gaps in both the coastal range of southern California and the Cascades in Oregon. However, confidence in sustained breezy conditions is not high enough to introduce highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0508 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 508 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..MOORE..07/06/24 ATTN...WFO...GLD...GID...DDC...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 508 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC039-063-065-071-089-101-109-137-147-153-163-171-179-181-183- 193-195-199-203-062040- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DECATUR GOVE GRAHAM GREELEY JEWELL LANE LOGAN NORTON PHILLIPS RAWLINS ROOKS SCOTT SHERIDAN SHERMAN SMITH THOMAS TREGO WALLACE WICHITA NEC001-019-035-041-047-059-061-063-065-073-077-079-081-083-085- 087-093-099-111-113-121-125-129-137-143-145-163-169-175-181-185- 062040- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BUFFALO CLAY CUSTER DAWSON FILLMORE FRANKLIN FRONTIER FURNAS GOSPER GREELEY HALL Read more

MD 1543 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO MUCH OF WESTERN KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1543 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1201 PM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024 Areas affected...central Nebraska into much of western Kansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 061701Z - 061900Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Storms will generally increase in coverage over the next several hours from south-central Nebraska into northwest and western Kansas. Hail and damaging wind gusts will be possible. DISCUSSION...Beneath cool midlevel temperatures and in a zone of modest warm advection, isolated cells producing hail have formed over central NE. This area is north of the surface warm front, which diffusely extends east/west just north of the KS/NE border. Low-level moisture is generally modest with upper 50s to lower 60s F dewpoints. However, cool temperatures aloft will combine with continued heating to produce MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg, and overall steepening lapse rates. Surface observations already indicate substantial warming and boundary-layer mixing ahead of the developing low near the CO/KS/NE border, with a tight temperature gradient near the warm front. Give the existence of lift near the warm front, and continued destabilization, it seems unlikely that the ongoing storms will dissipate, and thus a hail threat may persist with these cells. A rapid ramp-up of storm coverage is then anticipated later this afternoon, perhaps by 19Z-20Z along the front. This initial convection will likely produce severe hail initially, with increasing damaging wind threat as a linear mode takes shape. Shear profiles appear to favor rightward-moving storms over western KS through the afternoon, while eastward moving storms are most likely along the warm front into southern NE. ..Jewell/Guyer.. 07/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD... LAT...LON 41659864 41559800 40949752 40389783 39619906 37940035 37910122 38160171 39370175 40090154 41050042 41439980 41659864 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 PM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST TEXAS...AND ALONG THE MIDDLE/UPPER TEXAS COAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected in parts of the central and southern Plains on Sunday. Some tornado risk will exist as tropical cyclone Beryl approaches the middle Texas Gulf Coast. ...Synopsis... Broad troughing is expected to extend from the northern/central Rockies across the Plains and through the OH Valley and Northeast early Sunday, flanked on each side by upper ridging. This overall ridge/trough/ridge pattern is forecast to remain largely in place throughout the period, with some modest easterly progression of the upper trough as several embedded shortwave troughs move through it. TC Beryl is expected to move through the western periphery of the subtropical ridging centered over the northeast Gulf/northern FL, with the current NHC forecast track placing it just off the middle TX Coast (approximately 50 miles east of CRP) by 12Z Monday. A surface low will likely begin the period near the CO/KS/OK border intersection, with an expansive cold front extending southeastward from this low into east TX before then arcing more eastward across the Lower MS Valley and more northeastward across the northern Southeast states and Carolina Piedmont. This front demarcates the more continental airmass to its north from the more tropical airmass associated with the subtropical ridge to its south. This front will remain largely in place throughout the period aside from some modification along its western periphery over the southern Plains amid low-level moisture advection. Another front associated with an additional surge of more continental air will likely progress southeastward across the Upper MS Valley and central Plains. Thunderstorms are likely along this more westerly cold front across the Plains, with the highest afternoon/evening coverage likely over western/central OK and far northwest TX. Rainbands associated with Beryl are possible along the TX Coast throughout the day, with thunderstorms along the stationary front stretched across the Southeast and Carolinas as well. ...Far southern Kansas into Oklahoma and North Texas... Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing early Sunday morning from southwest KS into northwest/north-central OK, supported by warm-air advection across the front. This storms are expected to gradually shift southeastward while weakening in tandem with the weakening of the low-level jet. Low-level convergence along the outflow associated with these storms as well as along the front and associated surface low will likely lead to additional thunderstorm development once the airmass destabilizes during the afternoon. Temperatures in the 90s and dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s combined with steep mid-level lapse rates will help support moderate to strong buoyancy and robust updrafts with this afternoon/evening development. Vertical shear will be strong enough to support an initially cellular mode, but high LCLs, steep low-level lapse rates and close storm proximity will support largely outflow-dominant storm structures, with damaging gusts as the primary severe threat. Large hail is also possible with the earlier, more cellular storms. Mid-level flow will be modest, but vertically veering wind profiles will still help support moderate vertical shear and the potential for organization into a forward-progressing convective line. This could result in a corridor of higher wind risk, but when and where this occurs is uncertain, particularly given the uncertainty of how the outflow from the early morning storm evolves. This uncertainty precludes introducing higher wind probabilities with this outlook. ...Southeast CO/Northeast NM into southwest KS... Afternoon/evening thunderstorm development is possible along the higher terrain before then tracking into the modest low-level moisture in place downstream. A few stronger gusts and/or isolated hail is possible with these storms as these storms progress southeastward into southwest KS and the western OK/northwest TX Panhandle. ...Middle/Upper Texas Gulf Coast... Rainbands associated with TC Beryl will likely spread northwestward into the region during the afternoon, with low to mid-level flow increasing during this time as well. A few stronger gusts and/or a tornado or two are possible with the more intense storms within these bands. Convective coverage will contract overnight, but thunderstorms capable of tornadoes and convectively augmented gusts are still possible closer to the center (i.e. largely along the middle TX Coast). ...Southern MN into northern WI... Scattered thunderstorm development is anticipated along and ahead of the cold front and associated surface low forecast to move eastward across the region throughout the day. A belt of slightly stronger mid-level flow may extend across the region, but buoyancy will be modest, likely mitigating the overall severe potential. An isolated strong storm or two is still possible, with small hail and damaging gusts as the primary threats. Limited anticipated severe coverage precludes introducing any probabilities with this outlook. ..Mosier.. 07/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 PM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST TEXAS...AND ALONG THE MIDDLE/UPPER TEXAS COAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected in parts of the central and southern Plains on Sunday. Some tornado risk will exist as tropical cyclone Beryl approaches the middle Texas Gulf Coast. ...Synopsis... Broad troughing is expected to extend from the northern/central Rockies across the Plains and through the OH Valley and Northeast early Sunday, flanked on each side by upper ridging. This overall ridge/trough/ridge pattern is forecast to remain largely in place throughout the period, with some modest easterly progression of the upper trough as several embedded shortwave troughs move through it. TC Beryl is expected to move through the western periphery of the subtropical ridging centered over the northeast Gulf/northern FL, with the current NHC forecast track placing it just off the middle TX Coast (approximately 50 miles east of CRP) by 12Z Monday. A surface low will likely begin the period near the CO/KS/OK border intersection, with an expansive cold front extending southeastward from this low into east TX before then arcing more eastward across the Lower MS Valley and more northeastward across the northern Southeast states and Carolina Piedmont. This front demarcates the more continental airmass to its north from the more tropical airmass associated with the subtropical ridge to its south. This front will remain largely in place throughout the period aside from some modification along its western periphery over the southern Plains amid low-level moisture advection. Another front associated with an additional surge of more continental air will likely progress southeastward across the Upper MS Valley and central Plains. Thunderstorms are likely along this more westerly cold front across the Plains, with the highest afternoon/evening coverage likely over western/central OK and far northwest TX. Rainbands associated with Beryl are possible along the TX Coast throughout the day, with thunderstorms along the stationary front stretched across the Southeast and Carolinas as well. ...Far southern Kansas into Oklahoma and North Texas... Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing early Sunday morning from southwest KS into northwest/north-central OK, supported by warm-air advection across the front. This storms are expected to gradually shift southeastward while weakening in tandem with the weakening of the low-level jet. Low-level convergence along the outflow associated with these storms as well as along the front and associated surface low will likely lead to additional thunderstorm development once the airmass destabilizes during the afternoon. Temperatures in the 90s and dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s combined with steep mid-level lapse rates will help support moderate to strong buoyancy and robust updrafts with this afternoon/evening development. Vertical shear will be strong enough to support an initially cellular mode, but high LCLs, steep low-level lapse rates and close storm proximity will support largely outflow-dominant storm structures, with damaging gusts as the primary severe threat. Large hail is also possible with the earlier, more cellular storms. Mid-level flow will be modest, but vertically veering wind profiles will still help support moderate vertical shear and the potential for organization into a forward-progressing convective line. This could result in a corridor of higher wind risk, but when and where this occurs is uncertain, particularly given the uncertainty of how the outflow from the early morning storm evolves. This uncertainty precludes introducing higher wind probabilities with this outlook. ...Southeast CO/Northeast NM into southwest KS... Afternoon/evening thunderstorm development is possible along the higher terrain before then tracking into the modest low-level moisture in place downstream. A few stronger gusts and/or isolated hail is possible with these storms as these storms progress southeastward into southwest KS and the western OK/northwest TX Panhandle. ...Middle/Upper Texas Gulf Coast... Rainbands associated with TC Beryl will likely spread northwestward into the region during the afternoon, with low to mid-level flow increasing during this time as well. A few stronger gusts and/or a tornado or two are possible with the more intense storms within these bands. Convective coverage will contract overnight, but thunderstorms capable of tornadoes and convectively augmented gusts are still possible closer to the center (i.e. largely along the middle TX Coast). ...Southern MN into northern WI... Scattered thunderstorm development is anticipated along and ahead of the cold front and associated surface low forecast to move eastward across the region throughout the day. A belt of slightly stronger mid-level flow may extend across the region, but buoyancy will be modest, likely mitigating the overall severe potential. An isolated strong storm or two is still possible, with small hail and damaging gusts as the primary threats. Limited anticipated severe coverage precludes introducing any probabilities with this outlook. ..Mosier.. 07/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 PM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST TEXAS...AND ALONG THE MIDDLE/UPPER TEXAS COAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected in parts of the central and southern Plains on Sunday. Some tornado risk will exist as tropical cyclone Beryl approaches the middle Texas Gulf Coast. ...Synopsis... Broad troughing is expected to extend from the northern/central Rockies across the Plains and through the OH Valley and Northeast early Sunday, flanked on each side by upper ridging. This overall ridge/trough/ridge pattern is forecast to remain largely in place throughout the period, with some modest easterly progression of the upper trough as several embedded shortwave troughs move through it. TC Beryl is expected to move through the western periphery of the subtropical ridging centered over the northeast Gulf/northern FL, with the current NHC forecast track placing it just off the middle TX Coast (approximately 50 miles east of CRP) by 12Z Monday. A surface low will likely begin the period near the CO/KS/OK border intersection, with an expansive cold front extending southeastward from this low into east TX before then arcing more eastward across the Lower MS Valley and more northeastward across the northern Southeast states and Carolina Piedmont. This front demarcates the more continental airmass to its north from the more tropical airmass associated with the subtropical ridge to its south. This front will remain largely in place throughout the period aside from some modification along its western periphery over the southern Plains amid low-level moisture advection. Another front associated with an additional surge of more continental air will likely progress southeastward across the Upper MS Valley and central Plains. Thunderstorms are likely along this more westerly cold front across the Plains, with the highest afternoon/evening coverage likely over western/central OK and far northwest TX. Rainbands associated with Beryl are possible along the TX Coast throughout the day, with thunderstorms along the stationary front stretched across the Southeast and Carolinas as well. ...Far southern Kansas into Oklahoma and North Texas... Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing early Sunday morning from southwest KS into northwest/north-central OK, supported by warm-air advection across the front. This storms are expected to gradually shift southeastward while weakening in tandem with the weakening of the low-level jet. Low-level convergence along the outflow associated with these storms as well as along the front and associated surface low will likely lead to additional thunderstorm development once the airmass destabilizes during the afternoon. Temperatures in the 90s and dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s combined with steep mid-level lapse rates will help support moderate to strong buoyancy and robust updrafts with this afternoon/evening development. Vertical shear will be strong enough to support an initially cellular mode, but high LCLs, steep low-level lapse rates and close storm proximity will support largely outflow-dominant storm structures, with damaging gusts as the primary severe threat. Large hail is also possible with the earlier, more cellular storms. Mid-level flow will be modest, but vertically veering wind profiles will still help support moderate vertical shear and the potential for organization into a forward-progressing convective line. This could result in a corridor of higher wind risk, but when and where this occurs is uncertain, particularly given the uncertainty of how the outflow from the early morning storm evolves. This uncertainty precludes introducing higher wind probabilities with this outlook. ...Southeast CO/Northeast NM into southwest KS... Afternoon/evening thunderstorm development is possible along the higher terrain before then tracking into the modest low-level moisture in place downstream. A few stronger gusts and/or isolated hail is possible with these storms as these storms progress southeastward into southwest KS and the western OK/northwest TX Panhandle. ...Middle/Upper Texas Gulf Coast... Rainbands associated with TC Beryl will likely spread northwestward into the region during the afternoon, with low to mid-level flow increasing during this time as well. A few stronger gusts and/or a tornado or two are possible with the more intense storms within these bands. Convective coverage will contract overnight, but thunderstorms capable of tornadoes and convectively augmented gusts are still possible closer to the center (i.e. largely along the middle TX Coast). ...Southern MN into northern WI... Scattered thunderstorm development is anticipated along and ahead of the cold front and associated surface low forecast to move eastward across the region throughout the day. A belt of slightly stronger mid-level flow may extend across the region, but buoyancy will be modest, likely mitigating the overall severe potential. An isolated strong storm or two is still possible, with small hail and damaging gusts as the primary threats. Limited anticipated severe coverage precludes introducing any probabilities with this outlook. ..Mosier.. 07/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 PM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST TEXAS...AND ALONG THE MIDDLE/UPPER TEXAS COAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected in parts of the central and southern Plains on Sunday. Some tornado risk will exist as tropical cyclone Beryl approaches the middle Texas Gulf Coast. ...Synopsis... Broad troughing is expected to extend from the northern/central Rockies across the Plains and through the OH Valley and Northeast early Sunday, flanked on each side by upper ridging. This overall ridge/trough/ridge pattern is forecast to remain largely in place throughout the period, with some modest easterly progression of the upper trough as several embedded shortwave troughs move through it. TC Beryl is expected to move through the western periphery of the subtropical ridging centered over the northeast Gulf/northern FL, with the current NHC forecast track placing it just off the middle TX Coast (approximately 50 miles east of CRP) by 12Z Monday. A surface low will likely begin the period near the CO/KS/OK border intersection, with an expansive cold front extending southeastward from this low into east TX before then arcing more eastward across the Lower MS Valley and more northeastward across the northern Southeast states and Carolina Piedmont. This front demarcates the more continental airmass to its north from the more tropical airmass associated with the subtropical ridge to its south. This front will remain largely in place throughout the period aside from some modification along its western periphery over the southern Plains amid low-level moisture advection. Another front associated with an additional surge of more continental air will likely progress southeastward across the Upper MS Valley and central Plains. Thunderstorms are likely along this more westerly cold front across the Plains, with the highest afternoon/evening coverage likely over western/central OK and far northwest TX. Rainbands associated with Beryl are possible along the TX Coast throughout the day, with thunderstorms along the stationary front stretched across the Southeast and Carolinas as well. ...Far southern Kansas into Oklahoma and North Texas... Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing early Sunday morning from southwest KS into northwest/north-central OK, supported by warm-air advection across the front. This storms are expected to gradually shift southeastward while weakening in tandem with the weakening of the low-level jet. Low-level convergence along the outflow associated with these storms as well as along the front and associated surface low will likely lead to additional thunderstorm development once the airmass destabilizes during the afternoon. Temperatures in the 90s and dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s combined with steep mid-level lapse rates will help support moderate to strong buoyancy and robust updrafts with this afternoon/evening development. Vertical shear will be strong enough to support an initially cellular mode, but high LCLs, steep low-level lapse rates and close storm proximity will support largely outflow-dominant storm structures, with damaging gusts as the primary severe threat. Large hail is also possible with the earlier, more cellular storms. Mid-level flow will be modest, but vertically veering wind profiles will still help support moderate vertical shear and the potential for organization into a forward-progressing convective line. This could result in a corridor of higher wind risk, but when and where this occurs is uncertain, particularly given the uncertainty of how the outflow from the early morning storm evolves. This uncertainty precludes introducing higher wind probabilities with this outlook. ...Southeast CO/Northeast NM into southwest KS... Afternoon/evening thunderstorm development is possible along the higher terrain before then tracking into the modest low-level moisture in place downstream. A few stronger gusts and/or isolated hail is possible with these storms as these storms progress southeastward into southwest KS and the western OK/northwest TX Panhandle. ...Middle/Upper Texas Gulf Coast... Rainbands associated with TC Beryl will likely spread northwestward into the region during the afternoon, with low to mid-level flow increasing during this time as well. A few stronger gusts and/or a tornado or two are possible with the more intense storms within these bands. Convective coverage will contract overnight, but thunderstorms capable of tornadoes and convectively augmented gusts are still possible closer to the center (i.e. largely along the middle TX Coast). ...Southern MN into northern WI... Scattered thunderstorm development is anticipated along and ahead of the cold front and associated surface low forecast to move eastward across the region throughout the day. A belt of slightly stronger mid-level flow may extend across the region, but buoyancy will be modest, likely mitigating the overall severe potential. An isolated strong storm or two is still possible, with small hail and damaging gusts as the primary threats. Limited anticipated severe coverage precludes introducing any probabilities with this outlook. ..Mosier.. 07/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 PM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST TEXAS...AND ALONG THE MIDDLE/UPPER TEXAS COAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected in parts of the central and southern Plains on Sunday. Some tornado risk will exist as tropical cyclone Beryl approaches the middle Texas Gulf Coast. ...Synopsis... Broad troughing is expected to extend from the northern/central Rockies across the Plains and through the OH Valley and Northeast early Sunday, flanked on each side by upper ridging. This overall ridge/trough/ridge pattern is forecast to remain largely in place throughout the period, with some modest easterly progression of the upper trough as several embedded shortwave troughs move through it. TC Beryl is expected to move through the western periphery of the subtropical ridging centered over the northeast Gulf/northern FL, with the current NHC forecast track placing it just off the middle TX Coast (approximately 50 miles east of CRP) by 12Z Monday. A surface low will likely begin the period near the CO/KS/OK border intersection, with an expansive cold front extending southeastward from this low into east TX before then arcing more eastward across the Lower MS Valley and more northeastward across the northern Southeast states and Carolina Piedmont. This front demarcates the more continental airmass to its north from the more tropical airmass associated with the subtropical ridge to its south. This front will remain largely in place throughout the period aside from some modification along its western periphery over the southern Plains amid low-level moisture advection. Another front associated with an additional surge of more continental air will likely progress southeastward across the Upper MS Valley and central Plains. Thunderstorms are likely along this more westerly cold front across the Plains, with the highest afternoon/evening coverage likely over western/central OK and far northwest TX. Rainbands associated with Beryl are possible along the TX Coast throughout the day, with thunderstorms along the stationary front stretched across the Southeast and Carolinas as well. ...Far southern Kansas into Oklahoma and North Texas... Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing early Sunday morning from southwest KS into northwest/north-central OK, supported by warm-air advection across the front. This storms are expected to gradually shift southeastward while weakening in tandem with the weakening of the low-level jet. Low-level convergence along the outflow associated with these storms as well as along the front and associated surface low will likely lead to additional thunderstorm development once the airmass destabilizes during the afternoon. Temperatures in the 90s and dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s combined with steep mid-level lapse rates will help support moderate to strong buoyancy and robust updrafts with this afternoon/evening development. Vertical shear will be strong enough to support an initially cellular mode, but high LCLs, steep low-level lapse rates and close storm proximity will support largely outflow-dominant storm structures, with damaging gusts as the primary severe threat. Large hail is also possible with the earlier, more cellular storms. Mid-level flow will be modest, but vertically veering wind profiles will still help support moderate vertical shear and the potential for organization into a forward-progressing convective line. This could result in a corridor of higher wind risk, but when and where this occurs is uncertain, particularly given the uncertainty of how the outflow from the early morning storm evolves. This uncertainty precludes introducing higher wind probabilities with this outlook. ...Southeast CO/Northeast NM into southwest KS... Afternoon/evening thunderstorm development is possible along the higher terrain before then tracking into the modest low-level moisture in place downstream. A few stronger gusts and/or isolated hail is possible with these storms as these storms progress southeastward into southwest KS and the western OK/northwest TX Panhandle. ...Middle/Upper Texas Gulf Coast... Rainbands associated with TC Beryl will likely spread northwestward into the region during the afternoon, with low to mid-level flow increasing during this time as well. A few stronger gusts and/or a tornado or two are possible with the more intense storms within these bands. Convective coverage will contract overnight, but thunderstorms capable of tornadoes and convectively augmented gusts are still possible closer to the center (i.e. largely along the middle TX Coast). ...Southern MN into northern WI... Scattered thunderstorm development is anticipated along and ahead of the cold front and associated surface low forecast to move eastward across the region throughout the day. A belt of slightly stronger mid-level flow may extend across the region, but buoyancy will be modest, likely mitigating the overall severe potential. An isolated strong storm or two is still possible, with small hail and damaging gusts as the primary threats. Limited anticipated severe coverage precludes introducing any probabilities with this outlook. ..Mosier.. 07/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 PM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST TEXAS...AND ALONG THE MIDDLE/UPPER TEXAS COAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected in parts of the central and southern Plains on Sunday. Some tornado risk will exist as tropical cyclone Beryl approaches the middle Texas Gulf Coast. ...Synopsis... Broad troughing is expected to extend from the northern/central Rockies across the Plains and through the OH Valley and Northeast early Sunday, flanked on each side by upper ridging. This overall ridge/trough/ridge pattern is forecast to remain largely in place throughout the period, with some modest easterly progression of the upper trough as several embedded shortwave troughs move through it. TC Beryl is expected to move through the western periphery of the subtropical ridging centered over the northeast Gulf/northern FL, with the current NHC forecast track placing it just off the middle TX Coast (approximately 50 miles east of CRP) by 12Z Monday. A surface low will likely begin the period near the CO/KS/OK border intersection, with an expansive cold front extending southeastward from this low into east TX before then arcing more eastward across the Lower MS Valley and more northeastward across the northern Southeast states and Carolina Piedmont. This front demarcates the more continental airmass to its north from the more tropical airmass associated with the subtropical ridge to its south. This front will remain largely in place throughout the period aside from some modification along its western periphery over the southern Plains amid low-level moisture advection. Another front associated with an additional surge of more continental air will likely progress southeastward across the Upper MS Valley and central Plains. Thunderstorms are likely along this more westerly cold front across the Plains, with the highest afternoon/evening coverage likely over western/central OK and far northwest TX. Rainbands associated with Beryl are possible along the TX Coast throughout the day, with thunderstorms along the stationary front stretched across the Southeast and Carolinas as well. ...Far southern Kansas into Oklahoma and North Texas... Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing early Sunday morning from southwest KS into northwest/north-central OK, supported by warm-air advection across the front. This storms are expected to gradually shift southeastward while weakening in tandem with the weakening of the low-level jet. Low-level convergence along the outflow associated with these storms as well as along the front and associated surface low will likely lead to additional thunderstorm development once the airmass destabilizes during the afternoon. Temperatures in the 90s and dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s combined with steep mid-level lapse rates will help support moderate to strong buoyancy and robust updrafts with this afternoon/evening development. Vertical shear will be strong enough to support an initially cellular mode, but high LCLs, steep low-level lapse rates and close storm proximity will support largely outflow-dominant storm structures, with damaging gusts as the primary severe threat. Large hail is also possible with the earlier, more cellular storms. Mid-level flow will be modest, but vertically veering wind profiles will still help support moderate vertical shear and the potential for organization into a forward-progressing convective line. This could result in a corridor of higher wind risk, but when and where this occurs is uncertain, particularly given the uncertainty of how the outflow from the early morning storm evolves. This uncertainty precludes introducing higher wind probabilities with this outlook. ...Southeast CO/Northeast NM into southwest KS... Afternoon/evening thunderstorm development is possible along the higher terrain before then tracking into the modest low-level moisture in place downstream. A few stronger gusts and/or isolated hail is possible with these storms as these storms progress southeastward into southwest KS and the western OK/northwest TX Panhandle. ...Middle/Upper Texas Gulf Coast... Rainbands associated with TC Beryl will likely spread northwestward into the region during the afternoon, with low to mid-level flow increasing during this time as well. A few stronger gusts and/or a tornado or two are possible with the more intense storms within these bands. Convective coverage will contract overnight, but thunderstorms capable of tornadoes and convectively augmented gusts are still possible closer to the center (i.e. largely along the middle TX Coast). ...Southern MN into northern WI... Scattered thunderstorm development is anticipated along and ahead of the cold front and associated surface low forecast to move eastward across the region throughout the day. A belt of slightly stronger mid-level flow may extend across the region, but buoyancy will be modest, likely mitigating the overall severe potential. An isolated strong storm or two is still possible, with small hail and damaging gusts as the primary threats. Limited anticipated severe coverage precludes introducing any probabilities with this outlook. ..Mosier.. 07/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 PM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST TEXAS...AND ALONG THE MIDDLE/UPPER TEXAS COAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected in parts of the central and southern Plains on Sunday. Some tornado risk will exist as tropical cyclone Beryl approaches the middle Texas Gulf Coast. ...Synopsis... Broad troughing is expected to extend from the northern/central Rockies across the Plains and through the OH Valley and Northeast early Sunday, flanked on each side by upper ridging. This overall ridge/trough/ridge pattern is forecast to remain largely in place throughout the period, with some modest easterly progression of the upper trough as several embedded shortwave troughs move through it. TC Beryl is expected to move through the western periphery of the subtropical ridging centered over the northeast Gulf/northern FL, with the current NHC forecast track placing it just off the middle TX Coast (approximately 50 miles east of CRP) by 12Z Monday. A surface low will likely begin the period near the CO/KS/OK border intersection, with an expansive cold front extending southeastward from this low into east TX before then arcing more eastward across the Lower MS Valley and more northeastward across the northern Southeast states and Carolina Piedmont. This front demarcates the more continental airmass to its north from the more tropical airmass associated with the subtropical ridge to its south. This front will remain largely in place throughout the period aside from some modification along its western periphery over the southern Plains amid low-level moisture advection. Another front associated with an additional surge of more continental air will likely progress southeastward across the Upper MS Valley and central Plains. Thunderstorms are likely along this more westerly cold front across the Plains, with the highest afternoon/evening coverage likely over western/central OK and far northwest TX. Rainbands associated with Beryl are possible along the TX Coast throughout the day, with thunderstorms along the stationary front stretched across the Southeast and Carolinas as well. ...Far southern Kansas into Oklahoma and North Texas... Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing early Sunday morning from southwest KS into northwest/north-central OK, supported by warm-air advection across the front. This storms are expected to gradually shift southeastward while weakening in tandem with the weakening of the low-level jet. Low-level convergence along the outflow associated with these storms as well as along the front and associated surface low will likely lead to additional thunderstorm development once the airmass destabilizes during the afternoon. Temperatures in the 90s and dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s combined with steep mid-level lapse rates will help support moderate to strong buoyancy and robust updrafts with this afternoon/evening development. Vertical shear will be strong enough to support an initially cellular mode, but high LCLs, steep low-level lapse rates and close storm proximity will support largely outflow-dominant storm structures, with damaging gusts as the primary severe threat. Large hail is also possible with the earlier, more cellular storms. Mid-level flow will be modest, but vertically veering wind profiles will still help support moderate vertical shear and the potential for organization into a forward-progressing convective line. This could result in a corridor of higher wind risk, but when and where this occurs is uncertain, particularly given the uncertainty of how the outflow from the early morning storm evolves. This uncertainty precludes introducing higher wind probabilities with this outlook. ...Southeast CO/Northeast NM into southwest KS... Afternoon/evening thunderstorm development is possible along the higher terrain before then tracking into the modest low-level moisture in place downstream. A few stronger gusts and/or isolated hail is possible with these storms as these storms progress southeastward into southwest KS and the western OK/northwest TX Panhandle. ...Middle/Upper Texas Gulf Coast... Rainbands associated with TC Beryl will likely spread northwestward into the region during the afternoon, with low to mid-level flow increasing during this time as well. A few stronger gusts and/or a tornado or two are possible with the more intense storms within these bands. Convective coverage will contract overnight, but thunderstorms capable of tornadoes and convectively augmented gusts are still possible closer to the center (i.e. largely along the middle TX Coast). ...Southern MN into northern WI... Scattered thunderstorm development is anticipated along and ahead of the cold front and associated surface low forecast to move eastward across the region throughout the day. A belt of slightly stronger mid-level flow may extend across the region, but buoyancy will be modest, likely mitigating the overall severe potential. An isolated strong storm or two is still possible, with small hail and damaging gusts as the primary threats. Limited anticipated severe coverage precludes introducing any probabilities with this outlook. ..Mosier.. 07/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 PM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST TEXAS...AND ALONG THE MIDDLE/UPPER TEXAS COAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected in parts of the central and southern Plains on Sunday. Some tornado risk will exist as tropical cyclone Beryl approaches the middle Texas Gulf Coast. ...Synopsis... Broad troughing is expected to extend from the northern/central Rockies across the Plains and through the OH Valley and Northeast early Sunday, flanked on each side by upper ridging. This overall ridge/trough/ridge pattern is forecast to remain largely in place throughout the period, with some modest easterly progression of the upper trough as several embedded shortwave troughs move through it. TC Beryl is expected to move through the western periphery of the subtropical ridging centered over the northeast Gulf/northern FL, with the current NHC forecast track placing it just off the middle TX Coast (approximately 50 miles east of CRP) by 12Z Monday. A surface low will likely begin the period near the CO/KS/OK border intersection, with an expansive cold front extending southeastward from this low into east TX before then arcing more eastward across the Lower MS Valley and more northeastward across the northern Southeast states and Carolina Piedmont. This front demarcates the more continental airmass to its north from the more tropical airmass associated with the subtropical ridge to its south. This front will remain largely in place throughout the period aside from some modification along its western periphery over the southern Plains amid low-level moisture advection. Another front associated with an additional surge of more continental air will likely progress southeastward across the Upper MS Valley and central Plains. Thunderstorms are likely along this more westerly cold front across the Plains, with the highest afternoon/evening coverage likely over western/central OK and far northwest TX. Rainbands associated with Beryl are possible along the TX Coast throughout the day, with thunderstorms along the stationary front stretched across the Southeast and Carolinas as well. ...Far southern Kansas into Oklahoma and North Texas... Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing early Sunday morning from southwest KS into northwest/north-central OK, supported by warm-air advection across the front. This storms are expected to gradually shift southeastward while weakening in tandem with the weakening of the low-level jet. Low-level convergence along the outflow associated with these storms as well as along the front and associated surface low will likely lead to additional thunderstorm development once the airmass destabilizes during the afternoon. Temperatures in the 90s and dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s combined with steep mid-level lapse rates will help support moderate to strong buoyancy and robust updrafts with this afternoon/evening development. Vertical shear will be strong enough to support an initially cellular mode, but high LCLs, steep low-level lapse rates and close storm proximity will support largely outflow-dominant storm structures, with damaging gusts as the primary severe threat. Large hail is also possible with the earlier, more cellular storms. Mid-level flow will be modest, but vertically veering wind profiles will still help support moderate vertical shear and the potential for organization into a forward-progressing convective line. This could result in a corridor of higher wind risk, but when and where this occurs is uncertain, particularly given the uncertainty of how the outflow from the early morning storm evolves. This uncertainty precludes introducing higher wind probabilities with this outlook. ...Southeast CO/Northeast NM into southwest KS... Afternoon/evening thunderstorm development is possible along the higher terrain before then tracking into the modest low-level moisture in place downstream. A few stronger gusts and/or isolated hail is possible with these storms as these storms progress southeastward into southwest KS and the western OK/northwest TX Panhandle. ...Middle/Upper Texas Gulf Coast... Rainbands associated with TC Beryl will likely spread northwestward into the region during the afternoon, with low to mid-level flow increasing during this time as well. A few stronger gusts and/or a tornado or two are possible with the more intense storms within these bands. Convective coverage will contract overnight, but thunderstorms capable of tornadoes and convectively augmented gusts are still possible closer to the center (i.e. largely along the middle TX Coast). ...Southern MN into northern WI... Scattered thunderstorm development is anticipated along and ahead of the cold front and associated surface low forecast to move eastward across the region throughout the day. A belt of slightly stronger mid-level flow may extend across the region, but buoyancy will be modest, likely mitigating the overall severe potential. An isolated strong storm or two is still possible, with small hail and damaging gusts as the primary threats. Limited anticipated severe coverage precludes introducing any probabilities with this outlook. ..Mosier.. 07/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 PM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST TEXAS...AND ALONG THE MIDDLE/UPPER TEXAS COAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected in parts of the central and southern Plains on Sunday. Some tornado risk will exist as tropical cyclone Beryl approaches the middle Texas Gulf Coast. ...Synopsis... Broad troughing is expected to extend from the northern/central Rockies across the Plains and through the OH Valley and Northeast early Sunday, flanked on each side by upper ridging. This overall ridge/trough/ridge pattern is forecast to remain largely in place throughout the period, with some modest easterly progression of the upper trough as several embedded shortwave troughs move through it. TC Beryl is expected to move through the western periphery of the subtropical ridging centered over the northeast Gulf/northern FL, with the current NHC forecast track placing it just off the middle TX Coast (approximately 50 miles east of CRP) by 12Z Monday. A surface low will likely begin the period near the CO/KS/OK border intersection, with an expansive cold front extending southeastward from this low into east TX before then arcing more eastward across the Lower MS Valley and more northeastward across the northern Southeast states and Carolina Piedmont. This front demarcates the more continental airmass to its north from the more tropical airmass associated with the subtropical ridge to its south. This front will remain largely in place throughout the period aside from some modification along its western periphery over the southern Plains amid low-level moisture advection. Another front associated with an additional surge of more continental air will likely progress southeastward across the Upper MS Valley and central Plains. Thunderstorms are likely along this more westerly cold front across the Plains, with the highest afternoon/evening coverage likely over western/central OK and far northwest TX. Rainbands associated with Beryl are possible along the TX Coast throughout the day, with thunderstorms along the stationary front stretched across the Southeast and Carolinas as well. ...Far southern Kansas into Oklahoma and North Texas... Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing early Sunday morning from southwest KS into northwest/north-central OK, supported by warm-air advection across the front. This storms are expected to gradually shift southeastward while weakening in tandem with the weakening of the low-level jet. Low-level convergence along the outflow associated with these storms as well as along the front and associated surface low will likely lead to additional thunderstorm development once the airmass destabilizes during the afternoon. Temperatures in the 90s and dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s combined with steep mid-level lapse rates will help support moderate to strong buoyancy and robust updrafts with this afternoon/evening development. Vertical shear will be strong enough to support an initially cellular mode, but high LCLs, steep low-level lapse rates and close storm proximity will support largely outflow-dominant storm structures, with damaging gusts as the primary severe threat. Large hail is also possible with the earlier, more cellular storms. Mid-level flow will be modest, but vertically veering wind profiles will still help support moderate vertical shear and the potential for organization into a forward-progressing convective line. This could result in a corridor of higher wind risk, but when and where this occurs is uncertain, particularly given the uncertainty of how the outflow from the early morning storm evolves. This uncertainty precludes introducing higher wind probabilities with this outlook. ...Southeast CO/Northeast NM into southwest KS... Afternoon/evening thunderstorm development is possible along the higher terrain before then tracking into the modest low-level moisture in place downstream. A few stronger gusts and/or isolated hail is possible with these storms as these storms progress southeastward into southwest KS and the western OK/northwest TX Panhandle. ...Middle/Upper Texas Gulf Coast... Rainbands associated with TC Beryl will likely spread northwestward into the region during the afternoon, with low to mid-level flow increasing during this time as well. A few stronger gusts and/or a tornado or two are possible with the more intense storms within these bands. Convective coverage will contract overnight, but thunderstorms capable of tornadoes and convectively augmented gusts are still possible closer to the center (i.e. largely along the middle TX Coast). ...Southern MN into northern WI... Scattered thunderstorm development is anticipated along and ahead of the cold front and associated surface low forecast to move eastward across the region throughout the day. A belt of slightly stronger mid-level flow may extend across the region, but buoyancy will be modest, likely mitigating the overall severe potential. An isolated strong storm or two is still possible, with small hail and damaging gusts as the primary threats. Limited anticipated severe coverage precludes introducing any probabilities with this outlook. ..Mosier.. 07/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 PM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST TEXAS...AND ALONG THE MIDDLE/UPPER TEXAS COAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected in parts of the central and southern Plains on Sunday. Some tornado risk will exist as tropical cyclone Beryl approaches the middle Texas Gulf Coast. ...Synopsis... Broad troughing is expected to extend from the northern/central Rockies across the Plains and through the OH Valley and Northeast early Sunday, flanked on each side by upper ridging. This overall ridge/trough/ridge pattern is forecast to remain largely in place throughout the period, with some modest easterly progression of the upper trough as several embedded shortwave troughs move through it. TC Beryl is expected to move through the western periphery of the subtropical ridging centered over the northeast Gulf/northern FL, with the current NHC forecast track placing it just off the middle TX Coast (approximately 50 miles east of CRP) by 12Z Monday. A surface low will likely begin the period near the CO/KS/OK border intersection, with an expansive cold front extending southeastward from this low into east TX before then arcing more eastward across the Lower MS Valley and more northeastward across the northern Southeast states and Carolina Piedmont. This front demarcates the more continental airmass to its north from the more tropical airmass associated with the subtropical ridge to its south. This front will remain largely in place throughout the period aside from some modification along its western periphery over the southern Plains amid low-level moisture advection. Another front associated with an additional surge of more continental air will likely progress southeastward across the Upper MS Valley and central Plains. Thunderstorms are likely along this more westerly cold front across the Plains, with the highest afternoon/evening coverage likely over western/central OK and far northwest TX. Rainbands associated with Beryl are possible along the TX Coast throughout the day, with thunderstorms along the stationary front stretched across the Southeast and Carolinas as well. ...Far southern Kansas into Oklahoma and North Texas... Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing early Sunday morning from southwest KS into northwest/north-central OK, supported by warm-air advection across the front. This storms are expected to gradually shift southeastward while weakening in tandem with the weakening of the low-level jet. Low-level convergence along the outflow associated with these storms as well as along the front and associated surface low will likely lead to additional thunderstorm development once the airmass destabilizes during the afternoon. Temperatures in the 90s and dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s combined with steep mid-level lapse rates will help support moderate to strong buoyancy and robust updrafts with this afternoon/evening development. Vertical shear will be strong enough to support an initially cellular mode, but high LCLs, steep low-level lapse rates and close storm proximity will support largely outflow-dominant storm structures, with damaging gusts as the primary severe threat. Large hail is also possible with the earlier, more cellular storms. Mid-level flow will be modest, but vertically veering wind profiles will still help support moderate vertical shear and the potential for organization into a forward-progressing convective line. This could result in a corridor of higher wind risk, but when and where this occurs is uncertain, particularly given the uncertainty of how the outflow from the early morning storm evolves. This uncertainty precludes introducing higher wind probabilities with this outlook. ...Southeast CO/Northeast NM into southwest KS... Afternoon/evening thunderstorm development is possible along the higher terrain before then tracking into the modest low-level moisture in place downstream. A few stronger gusts and/or isolated hail is possible with these storms as these storms progress southeastward into southwest KS and the western OK/northwest TX Panhandle. ...Middle/Upper Texas Gulf Coast... Rainbands associated with TC Beryl will likely spread northwestward into the region during the afternoon, with low to mid-level flow increasing during this time as well. A few stronger gusts and/or a tornado or two are possible with the more intense storms within these bands. Convective coverage will contract overnight, but thunderstorms capable of tornadoes and convectively augmented gusts are still possible closer to the center (i.e. largely along the middle TX Coast). ...Southern MN into northern WI... Scattered thunderstorm development is anticipated along and ahead of the cold front and associated surface low forecast to move eastward across the region throughout the day. A belt of slightly stronger mid-level flow may extend across the region, but buoyancy will be modest, likely mitigating the overall severe potential. An isolated strong storm or two is still possible, with small hail and damaging gusts as the primary threats. Limited anticipated severe coverage precludes introducing any probabilities with this outlook. ..Mosier.. 07/06/2024 Read more