Aggregator

WW 0508 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0508 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 061716
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sat Jul 6 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

No watches are valid as of Sat Jul 6 17:04:01 UTC 2024.

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 AM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN IDAHO...FAR NORTHEAST NEVADA...AND FAR SOUTHEAST OREGON... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and only minor changes were made based on the latest observations and high-resolution guidance. In particular, the Critical area was expanded slightly southward and westward into far northeastern NV and southeastern OR. Here, around 20 mph sustained west-northwesterly surface winds and 5-10 percent RH will support locally critical conditions, given increasingly dry fuels over the area. ..Weinman.. 07/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024/ ...Synopsis... A broad mid-level trough is expected to be situated over the central CONUS, with a shortwave trough and associated speed max traversing the northwestern CONUS through the day today. The surface response to this shortwave trough should produce breezy conditions across parts of the Pacific Northwest and Great Basin (wind gusts generally 30-35 mph) overlapping strong mixing and low RH values (generally 5-15% RH). Fuels in the region are somewhat receptive, particularly in the Snake River valley in Idaho, where a Critical area has been maintained. Some Critical conditions are possible across parts of southeast Oregon and southwest Wyoming. However fuels in this region are less receptive, and therefore have not expanded the Critical are to these regions. In addition, some transient Elevated to Critical conditions are possible in the southern California coastal range and Transverse Ranges. However, despite low RH and generally receptive fuels, any gusty winds will be localized and transient. Therefore, no Elevated highlights have been included in this region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 AM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN IDAHO...FAR NORTHEAST NEVADA...AND FAR SOUTHEAST OREGON... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and only minor changes were made based on the latest observations and high-resolution guidance. In particular, the Critical area was expanded slightly southward and westward into far northeastern NV and southeastern OR. Here, around 20 mph sustained west-northwesterly surface winds and 5-10 percent RH will support locally critical conditions, given increasingly dry fuels over the area. ..Weinman.. 07/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024/ ...Synopsis... A broad mid-level trough is expected to be situated over the central CONUS, with a shortwave trough and associated speed max traversing the northwestern CONUS through the day today. The surface response to this shortwave trough should produce breezy conditions across parts of the Pacific Northwest and Great Basin (wind gusts generally 30-35 mph) overlapping strong mixing and low RH values (generally 5-15% RH). Fuels in the region are somewhat receptive, particularly in the Snake River valley in Idaho, where a Critical area has been maintained. Some Critical conditions are possible across parts of southeast Oregon and southwest Wyoming. However fuels in this region are less receptive, and therefore have not expanded the Critical are to these regions. In addition, some transient Elevated to Critical conditions are possible in the southern California coastal range and Transverse Ranges. However, despite low RH and generally receptive fuels, any gusty winds will be localized and transient. Therefore, no Elevated highlights have been included in this region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 AM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN IDAHO...FAR NORTHEAST NEVADA...AND FAR SOUTHEAST OREGON... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and only minor changes were made based on the latest observations and high-resolution guidance. In particular, the Critical area was expanded slightly southward and westward into far northeastern NV and southeastern OR. Here, around 20 mph sustained west-northwesterly surface winds and 5-10 percent RH will support locally critical conditions, given increasingly dry fuels over the area. ..Weinman.. 07/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024/ ...Synopsis... A broad mid-level trough is expected to be situated over the central CONUS, with a shortwave trough and associated speed max traversing the northwestern CONUS through the day today. The surface response to this shortwave trough should produce breezy conditions across parts of the Pacific Northwest and Great Basin (wind gusts generally 30-35 mph) overlapping strong mixing and low RH values (generally 5-15% RH). Fuels in the region are somewhat receptive, particularly in the Snake River valley in Idaho, where a Critical area has been maintained. Some Critical conditions are possible across parts of southeast Oregon and southwest Wyoming. However fuels in this region are less receptive, and therefore have not expanded the Critical are to these regions. In addition, some transient Elevated to Critical conditions are possible in the southern California coastal range and Transverse Ranges. However, despite low RH and generally receptive fuels, any gusty winds will be localized and transient. Therefore, no Elevated highlights have been included in this region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 AM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN IDAHO...FAR NORTHEAST NEVADA...AND FAR SOUTHEAST OREGON... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and only minor changes were made based on the latest observations and high-resolution guidance. In particular, the Critical area was expanded slightly southward and westward into far northeastern NV and southeastern OR. Here, around 20 mph sustained west-northwesterly surface winds and 5-10 percent RH will support locally critical conditions, given increasingly dry fuels over the area. ..Weinman.. 07/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024/ ...Synopsis... A broad mid-level trough is expected to be situated over the central CONUS, with a shortwave trough and associated speed max traversing the northwestern CONUS through the day today. The surface response to this shortwave trough should produce breezy conditions across parts of the Pacific Northwest and Great Basin (wind gusts generally 30-35 mph) overlapping strong mixing and low RH values (generally 5-15% RH). Fuels in the region are somewhat receptive, particularly in the Snake River valley in Idaho, where a Critical area has been maintained. Some Critical conditions are possible across parts of southeast Oregon and southwest Wyoming. However fuels in this region are less receptive, and therefore have not expanded the Critical are to these regions. In addition, some transient Elevated to Critical conditions are possible in the southern California coastal range and Transverse Ranges. However, despite low RH and generally receptive fuels, any gusty winds will be localized and transient. Therefore, no Elevated highlights have been included in this region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 AM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN IDAHO...FAR NORTHEAST NEVADA...AND FAR SOUTHEAST OREGON... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and only minor changes were made based on the latest observations and high-resolution guidance. In particular, the Critical area was expanded slightly southward and westward into far northeastern NV and southeastern OR. Here, around 20 mph sustained west-northwesterly surface winds and 5-10 percent RH will support locally critical conditions, given increasingly dry fuels over the area. ..Weinman.. 07/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024/ ...Synopsis... A broad mid-level trough is expected to be situated over the central CONUS, with a shortwave trough and associated speed max traversing the northwestern CONUS through the day today. The surface response to this shortwave trough should produce breezy conditions across parts of the Pacific Northwest and Great Basin (wind gusts generally 30-35 mph) overlapping strong mixing and low RH values (generally 5-15% RH). Fuels in the region are somewhat receptive, particularly in the Snake River valley in Idaho, where a Critical area has been maintained. Some Critical conditions are possible across parts of southeast Oregon and southwest Wyoming. However fuels in this region are less receptive, and therefore have not expanded the Critical are to these regions. In addition, some transient Elevated to Critical conditions are possible in the southern California coastal range and Transverse Ranges. However, despite low RH and generally receptive fuels, any gusty winds will be localized and transient. Therefore, no Elevated highlights have been included in this region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 AM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN IDAHO...FAR NORTHEAST NEVADA...AND FAR SOUTHEAST OREGON... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and only minor changes were made based on the latest observations and high-resolution guidance. In particular, the Critical area was expanded slightly southward and westward into far northeastern NV and southeastern OR. Here, around 20 mph sustained west-northwesterly surface winds and 5-10 percent RH will support locally critical conditions, given increasingly dry fuels over the area. ..Weinman.. 07/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024/ ...Synopsis... A broad mid-level trough is expected to be situated over the central CONUS, with a shortwave trough and associated speed max traversing the northwestern CONUS through the day today. The surface response to this shortwave trough should produce breezy conditions across parts of the Pacific Northwest and Great Basin (wind gusts generally 30-35 mph) overlapping strong mixing and low RH values (generally 5-15% RH). Fuels in the region are somewhat receptive, particularly in the Snake River valley in Idaho, where a Critical area has been maintained. Some Critical conditions are possible across parts of southeast Oregon and southwest Wyoming. However fuels in this region are less receptive, and therefore have not expanded the Critical are to these regions. In addition, some transient Elevated to Critical conditions are possible in the southern California coastal range and Transverse Ranges. However, despite low RH and generally receptive fuels, any gusty winds will be localized and transient. Therefore, no Elevated highlights have been included in this region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 AM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN IDAHO...FAR NORTHEAST NEVADA...AND FAR SOUTHEAST OREGON... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and only minor changes were made based on the latest observations and high-resolution guidance. In particular, the Critical area was expanded slightly southward and westward into far northeastern NV and southeastern OR. Here, around 20 mph sustained west-northwesterly surface winds and 5-10 percent RH will support locally critical conditions, given increasingly dry fuels over the area. ..Weinman.. 07/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024/ ...Synopsis... A broad mid-level trough is expected to be situated over the central CONUS, with a shortwave trough and associated speed max traversing the northwestern CONUS through the day today. The surface response to this shortwave trough should produce breezy conditions across parts of the Pacific Northwest and Great Basin (wind gusts generally 30-35 mph) overlapping strong mixing and low RH values (generally 5-15% RH). Fuels in the region are somewhat receptive, particularly in the Snake River valley in Idaho, where a Critical area has been maintained. Some Critical conditions are possible across parts of southeast Oregon and southwest Wyoming. However fuels in this region are less receptive, and therefore have not expanded the Critical are to these regions. In addition, some transient Elevated to Critical conditions are possible in the southern California coastal range and Transverse Ranges. However, despite low RH and generally receptive fuels, any gusty winds will be localized and transient. Therefore, no Elevated highlights have been included in this region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 AM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN IDAHO...FAR NORTHEAST NEVADA...AND FAR SOUTHEAST OREGON... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and only minor changes were made based on the latest observations and high-resolution guidance. In particular, the Critical area was expanded slightly southward and westward into far northeastern NV and southeastern OR. Here, around 20 mph sustained west-northwesterly surface winds and 5-10 percent RH will support locally critical conditions, given increasingly dry fuels over the area. ..Weinman.. 07/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024/ ...Synopsis... A broad mid-level trough is expected to be situated over the central CONUS, with a shortwave trough and associated speed max traversing the northwestern CONUS through the day today. The surface response to this shortwave trough should produce breezy conditions across parts of the Pacific Northwest and Great Basin (wind gusts generally 30-35 mph) overlapping strong mixing and low RH values (generally 5-15% RH). Fuels in the region are somewhat receptive, particularly in the Snake River valley in Idaho, where a Critical area has been maintained. Some Critical conditions are possible across parts of southeast Oregon and southwest Wyoming. However fuels in this region are less receptive, and therefore have not expanded the Critical are to these regions. In addition, some transient Elevated to Critical conditions are possible in the southern California coastal range and Transverse Ranges. However, despite low RH and generally receptive fuels, any gusty winds will be localized and transient. Therefore, no Elevated highlights have been included in this region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 AM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN IDAHO...FAR NORTHEAST NEVADA...AND FAR SOUTHEAST OREGON... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and only minor changes were made based on the latest observations and high-resolution guidance. In particular, the Critical area was expanded slightly southward and westward into far northeastern NV and southeastern OR. Here, around 20 mph sustained west-northwesterly surface winds and 5-10 percent RH will support locally critical conditions, given increasingly dry fuels over the area. ..Weinman.. 07/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024/ ...Synopsis... A broad mid-level trough is expected to be situated over the central CONUS, with a shortwave trough and associated speed max traversing the northwestern CONUS through the day today. The surface response to this shortwave trough should produce breezy conditions across parts of the Pacific Northwest and Great Basin (wind gusts generally 30-35 mph) overlapping strong mixing and low RH values (generally 5-15% RH). Fuels in the region are somewhat receptive, particularly in the Snake River valley in Idaho, where a Critical area has been maintained. Some Critical conditions are possible across parts of southeast Oregon and southwest Wyoming. However fuels in this region are less receptive, and therefore have not expanded the Critical are to these regions. In addition, some transient Elevated to Critical conditions are possible in the southern California coastal range and Transverse Ranges. However, despite low RH and generally receptive fuels, any gusty winds will be localized and transient. Therefore, no Elevated highlights have been included in this region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 AM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the central Plains this afternoon into evening, including central/eastern Nebraska and western/northern Kansas. Large to very large hail and severe wind gusts are the primary hazards. ...Central/Southern Plains to Upper Midwest... A shortwave trough over the western Dakotas will continue southeastward, with a cyclonically curved belt of seasonally strong westerlies (40+ kt) from the north-central High Plains to the central Plains and middle/lower Missouri Valley. A weak area of low pressure will migrate slowly eastward from northeast Colorado toward the Nebraska/Kansas border vicinity as a weak front advances southeastward across the central High Plains. Moderate destabilization is expected near a surface trough across western Kansas into southwest/south-central Nebraska, to the south of ongoing showers/thunderstorms at midday generally I-80 and northward. These initially elevated storms will probably increasingly interface with a warming and modestly moist boundary layer and trend increasingly surface-based this afternoon on their southern periphery. Steep 700-500 mb lapse rates from 7-8 C/km and a relatively strong wind profile will support storm organization, potentially including a couple of supercells capable of large to very large hail. Relatively quick upscale growth into a couple of southeastward-moving clusters is expected towards early evening. Severe gusts will likely become more prevalent during this evolution towards more outflow-dominant storms. Further west, isolated thunderstorms will also be possible behind the front from the central High Plains northeastward into southern South Dakota. In this area, lower surface dewpoints and weaker instability should keep the severe threat more isolated and marginal. Some severe risk is also expected to develop southward across parts of the southern High Plains, where a small or cluster or two capable of strong/potentially severe wind gusts could occur. ...Northeast States... Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop and increase this afternoon from the lower Hudson Valley and especially into upstate eastern New York and northern New England, influenced by higher terrain/differential heating as well as a wind shift/weak eastward-moving front. Pre-convective MLCAPE may reach 1250-1500 J/kg, with relatively long/semi-straight hodographs with 50+ kt effective shear. Sustained multicells are expected with some possibility of a few transient/weak supercells. Localized 50-60 mph gusts capable of wind damage are possible with the stronger storms this afternoon through early evening. ..Guyer/Jewell.. 07/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 AM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the central Plains this afternoon into evening, including central/eastern Nebraska and western/northern Kansas. Large to very large hail and severe wind gusts are the primary hazards. ...Central/Southern Plains to Upper Midwest... A shortwave trough over the western Dakotas will continue southeastward, with a cyclonically curved belt of seasonally strong westerlies (40+ kt) from the north-central High Plains to the central Plains and middle/lower Missouri Valley. A weak area of low pressure will migrate slowly eastward from northeast Colorado toward the Nebraska/Kansas border vicinity as a weak front advances southeastward across the central High Plains. Moderate destabilization is expected near a surface trough across western Kansas into southwest/south-central Nebraska, to the south of ongoing showers/thunderstorms at midday generally I-80 and northward. These initially elevated storms will probably increasingly interface with a warming and modestly moist boundary layer and trend increasingly surface-based this afternoon on their southern periphery. Steep 700-500 mb lapse rates from 7-8 C/km and a relatively strong wind profile will support storm organization, potentially including a couple of supercells capable of large to very large hail. Relatively quick upscale growth into a couple of southeastward-moving clusters is expected towards early evening. Severe gusts will likely become more prevalent during this evolution towards more outflow-dominant storms. Further west, isolated thunderstorms will also be possible behind the front from the central High Plains northeastward into southern South Dakota. In this area, lower surface dewpoints and weaker instability should keep the severe threat more isolated and marginal. Some severe risk is also expected to develop southward across parts of the southern High Plains, where a small or cluster or two capable of strong/potentially severe wind gusts could occur. ...Northeast States... Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop and increase this afternoon from the lower Hudson Valley and especially into upstate eastern New York and northern New England, influenced by higher terrain/differential heating as well as a wind shift/weak eastward-moving front. Pre-convective MLCAPE may reach 1250-1500 J/kg, with relatively long/semi-straight hodographs with 50+ kt effective shear. Sustained multicells are expected with some possibility of a few transient/weak supercells. Localized 50-60 mph gusts capable of wind damage are possible with the stronger storms this afternoon through early evening. ..Guyer/Jewell.. 07/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 AM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the central Plains this afternoon into evening, including central/eastern Nebraska and western/northern Kansas. Large to very large hail and severe wind gusts are the primary hazards. ...Central/Southern Plains to Upper Midwest... A shortwave trough over the western Dakotas will continue southeastward, with a cyclonically curved belt of seasonally strong westerlies (40+ kt) from the north-central High Plains to the central Plains and middle/lower Missouri Valley. A weak area of low pressure will migrate slowly eastward from northeast Colorado toward the Nebraska/Kansas border vicinity as a weak front advances southeastward across the central High Plains. Moderate destabilization is expected near a surface trough across western Kansas into southwest/south-central Nebraska, to the south of ongoing showers/thunderstorms at midday generally I-80 and northward. These initially elevated storms will probably increasingly interface with a warming and modestly moist boundary layer and trend increasingly surface-based this afternoon on their southern periphery. Steep 700-500 mb lapse rates from 7-8 C/km and a relatively strong wind profile will support storm organization, potentially including a couple of supercells capable of large to very large hail. Relatively quick upscale growth into a couple of southeastward-moving clusters is expected towards early evening. Severe gusts will likely become more prevalent during this evolution towards more outflow-dominant storms. Further west, isolated thunderstorms will also be possible behind the front from the central High Plains northeastward into southern South Dakota. In this area, lower surface dewpoints and weaker instability should keep the severe threat more isolated and marginal. Some severe risk is also expected to develop southward across parts of the southern High Plains, where a small or cluster or two capable of strong/potentially severe wind gusts could occur. ...Northeast States... Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop and increase this afternoon from the lower Hudson Valley and especially into upstate eastern New York and northern New England, influenced by higher terrain/differential heating as well as a wind shift/weak eastward-moving front. Pre-convective MLCAPE may reach 1250-1500 J/kg, with relatively long/semi-straight hodographs with 50+ kt effective shear. Sustained multicells are expected with some possibility of a few transient/weak supercells. Localized 50-60 mph gusts capable of wind damage are possible with the stronger storms this afternoon through early evening. ..Guyer/Jewell.. 07/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 AM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the central Plains this afternoon into evening, including central/eastern Nebraska and western/northern Kansas. Large to very large hail and severe wind gusts are the primary hazards. ...Central/Southern Plains to Upper Midwest... A shortwave trough over the western Dakotas will continue southeastward, with a cyclonically curved belt of seasonally strong westerlies (40+ kt) from the north-central High Plains to the central Plains and middle/lower Missouri Valley. A weak area of low pressure will migrate slowly eastward from northeast Colorado toward the Nebraska/Kansas border vicinity as a weak front advances southeastward across the central High Plains. Moderate destabilization is expected near a surface trough across western Kansas into southwest/south-central Nebraska, to the south of ongoing showers/thunderstorms at midday generally I-80 and northward. These initially elevated storms will probably increasingly interface with a warming and modestly moist boundary layer and trend increasingly surface-based this afternoon on their southern periphery. Steep 700-500 mb lapse rates from 7-8 C/km and a relatively strong wind profile will support storm organization, potentially including a couple of supercells capable of large to very large hail. Relatively quick upscale growth into a couple of southeastward-moving clusters is expected towards early evening. Severe gusts will likely become more prevalent during this evolution towards more outflow-dominant storms. Further west, isolated thunderstorms will also be possible behind the front from the central High Plains northeastward into southern South Dakota. In this area, lower surface dewpoints and weaker instability should keep the severe threat more isolated and marginal. Some severe risk is also expected to develop southward across parts of the southern High Plains, where a small or cluster or two capable of strong/potentially severe wind gusts could occur. ...Northeast States... Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop and increase this afternoon from the lower Hudson Valley and especially into upstate eastern New York and northern New England, influenced by higher terrain/differential heating as well as a wind shift/weak eastward-moving front. Pre-convective MLCAPE may reach 1250-1500 J/kg, with relatively long/semi-straight hodographs with 50+ kt effective shear. Sustained multicells are expected with some possibility of a few transient/weak supercells. Localized 50-60 mph gusts capable of wind damage are possible with the stronger storms this afternoon through early evening. ..Guyer/Jewell.. 07/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 AM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the central Plains this afternoon into evening, including central/eastern Nebraska and western/northern Kansas. Large to very large hail and severe wind gusts are the primary hazards. ...Central/Southern Plains to Upper Midwest... A shortwave trough over the western Dakotas will continue southeastward, with a cyclonically curved belt of seasonally strong westerlies (40+ kt) from the north-central High Plains to the central Plains and middle/lower Missouri Valley. A weak area of low pressure will migrate slowly eastward from northeast Colorado toward the Nebraska/Kansas border vicinity as a weak front advances southeastward across the central High Plains. Moderate destabilization is expected near a surface trough across western Kansas into southwest/south-central Nebraska, to the south of ongoing showers/thunderstorms at midday generally I-80 and northward. These initially elevated storms will probably increasingly interface with a warming and modestly moist boundary layer and trend increasingly surface-based this afternoon on their southern periphery. Steep 700-500 mb lapse rates from 7-8 C/km and a relatively strong wind profile will support storm organization, potentially including a couple of supercells capable of large to very large hail. Relatively quick upscale growth into a couple of southeastward-moving clusters is expected towards early evening. Severe gusts will likely become more prevalent during this evolution towards more outflow-dominant storms. Further west, isolated thunderstorms will also be possible behind the front from the central High Plains northeastward into southern South Dakota. In this area, lower surface dewpoints and weaker instability should keep the severe threat more isolated and marginal. Some severe risk is also expected to develop southward across parts of the southern High Plains, where a small or cluster or two capable of strong/potentially severe wind gusts could occur. ...Northeast States... Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop and increase this afternoon from the lower Hudson Valley and especially into upstate eastern New York and northern New England, influenced by higher terrain/differential heating as well as a wind shift/weak eastward-moving front. Pre-convective MLCAPE may reach 1250-1500 J/kg, with relatively long/semi-straight hodographs with 50+ kt effective shear. Sustained multicells are expected with some possibility of a few transient/weak supercells. Localized 50-60 mph gusts capable of wind damage are possible with the stronger storms this afternoon through early evening. ..Guyer/Jewell.. 07/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 AM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the central Plains this afternoon into evening, including central/eastern Nebraska and western/northern Kansas. Large to very large hail and severe wind gusts are the primary hazards. ...Central/Southern Plains to Upper Midwest... A shortwave trough over the western Dakotas will continue southeastward, with a cyclonically curved belt of seasonally strong westerlies (40+ kt) from the north-central High Plains to the central Plains and middle/lower Missouri Valley. A weak area of low pressure will migrate slowly eastward from northeast Colorado toward the Nebraska/Kansas border vicinity as a weak front advances southeastward across the central High Plains. Moderate destabilization is expected near a surface trough across western Kansas into southwest/south-central Nebraska, to the south of ongoing showers/thunderstorms at midday generally I-80 and northward. These initially elevated storms will probably increasingly interface with a warming and modestly moist boundary layer and trend increasingly surface-based this afternoon on their southern periphery. Steep 700-500 mb lapse rates from 7-8 C/km and a relatively strong wind profile will support storm organization, potentially including a couple of supercells capable of large to very large hail. Relatively quick upscale growth into a couple of southeastward-moving clusters is expected towards early evening. Severe gusts will likely become more prevalent during this evolution towards more outflow-dominant storms. Further west, isolated thunderstorms will also be possible behind the front from the central High Plains northeastward into southern South Dakota. In this area, lower surface dewpoints and weaker instability should keep the severe threat more isolated and marginal. Some severe risk is also expected to develop southward across parts of the southern High Plains, where a small or cluster or two capable of strong/potentially severe wind gusts could occur. ...Northeast States... Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop and increase this afternoon from the lower Hudson Valley and especially into upstate eastern New York and northern New England, influenced by higher terrain/differential heating as well as a wind shift/weak eastward-moving front. Pre-convective MLCAPE may reach 1250-1500 J/kg, with relatively long/semi-straight hodographs with 50+ kt effective shear. Sustained multicells are expected with some possibility of a few transient/weak supercells. Localized 50-60 mph gusts capable of wind damage are possible with the stronger storms this afternoon through early evening. ..Guyer/Jewell.. 07/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 AM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the central Plains this afternoon into evening, including central/eastern Nebraska and western/northern Kansas. Large to very large hail and severe wind gusts are the primary hazards. ...Central/Southern Plains to Upper Midwest... A shortwave trough over the western Dakotas will continue southeastward, with a cyclonically curved belt of seasonally strong westerlies (40+ kt) from the north-central High Plains to the central Plains and middle/lower Missouri Valley. A weak area of low pressure will migrate slowly eastward from northeast Colorado toward the Nebraska/Kansas border vicinity as a weak front advances southeastward across the central High Plains. Moderate destabilization is expected near a surface trough across western Kansas into southwest/south-central Nebraska, to the south of ongoing showers/thunderstorms at midday generally I-80 and northward. These initially elevated storms will probably increasingly interface with a warming and modestly moist boundary layer and trend increasingly surface-based this afternoon on their southern periphery. Steep 700-500 mb lapse rates from 7-8 C/km and a relatively strong wind profile will support storm organization, potentially including a couple of supercells capable of large to very large hail. Relatively quick upscale growth into a couple of southeastward-moving clusters is expected towards early evening. Severe gusts will likely become more prevalent during this evolution towards more outflow-dominant storms. Further west, isolated thunderstorms will also be possible behind the front from the central High Plains northeastward into southern South Dakota. In this area, lower surface dewpoints and weaker instability should keep the severe threat more isolated and marginal. Some severe risk is also expected to develop southward across parts of the southern High Plains, where a small or cluster or two capable of strong/potentially severe wind gusts could occur. ...Northeast States... Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop and increase this afternoon from the lower Hudson Valley and especially into upstate eastern New York and northern New England, influenced by higher terrain/differential heating as well as a wind shift/weak eastward-moving front. Pre-convective MLCAPE may reach 1250-1500 J/kg, with relatively long/semi-straight hodographs with 50+ kt effective shear. Sustained multicells are expected with some possibility of a few transient/weak supercells. Localized 50-60 mph gusts capable of wind damage are possible with the stronger storms this afternoon through early evening. ..Guyer/Jewell.. 07/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 AM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the central Plains this afternoon into evening, including central/eastern Nebraska and western/northern Kansas. Large to very large hail and severe wind gusts are the primary hazards. ...Central/Southern Plains to Upper Midwest... A shortwave trough over the western Dakotas will continue southeastward, with a cyclonically curved belt of seasonally strong westerlies (40+ kt) from the north-central High Plains to the central Plains and middle/lower Missouri Valley. A weak area of low pressure will migrate slowly eastward from northeast Colorado toward the Nebraska/Kansas border vicinity as a weak front advances southeastward across the central High Plains. Moderate destabilization is expected near a surface trough across western Kansas into southwest/south-central Nebraska, to the south of ongoing showers/thunderstorms at midday generally I-80 and northward. These initially elevated storms will probably increasingly interface with a warming and modestly moist boundary layer and trend increasingly surface-based this afternoon on their southern periphery. Steep 700-500 mb lapse rates from 7-8 C/km and a relatively strong wind profile will support storm organization, potentially including a couple of supercells capable of large to very large hail. Relatively quick upscale growth into a couple of southeastward-moving clusters is expected towards early evening. Severe gusts will likely become more prevalent during this evolution towards more outflow-dominant storms. Further west, isolated thunderstorms will also be possible behind the front from the central High Plains northeastward into southern South Dakota. In this area, lower surface dewpoints and weaker instability should keep the severe threat more isolated and marginal. Some severe risk is also expected to develop southward across parts of the southern High Plains, where a small or cluster or two capable of strong/potentially severe wind gusts could occur. ...Northeast States... Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop and increase this afternoon from the lower Hudson Valley and especially into upstate eastern New York and northern New England, influenced by higher terrain/differential heating as well as a wind shift/weak eastward-moving front. Pre-convective MLCAPE may reach 1250-1500 J/kg, with relatively long/semi-straight hodographs with 50+ kt effective shear. Sustained multicells are expected with some possibility of a few transient/weak supercells. Localized 50-60 mph gusts capable of wind damage are possible with the stronger storms this afternoon through early evening. ..Guyer/Jewell.. 07/06/2024 Read more