Aggregator

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN IDAHO... ...Synopsis... A broad mid-level trough is expected to be situated over the central CONUS, with a shortwave trough and associated speed max traversing the northwestern CONUS through the day today. The surface response to this shortwave trough should produce breezy conditions across parts of the Pacific Northwest and Great Basin (wind gusts generally 30-35 mph) overlapping strong mixing and low RH values (generally 5-15% RH). Fuels in the region are somewhat receptive, particularly in the Snake River valley in Idaho, where a Critical area has been maintained. Some Critical conditions are possible across parts of southeast Oregon and southwest Wyoming. However fuels in this region are less receptive, and therefore have not expanded the Critical are to these regions. In addition, some transient Elevated to Critical conditions are possible in the southern California coastal range and Transverse Ranges. However, despite low RH and generally receptive fuels, any gusty winds will be localized and transient. Therefore, no Elevated highlights have been included in this region. ..Supinie.. 07/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...WESTERN/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...AND PARTS OF THE MIDDLE/UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected in parts of the central and southern Plains on Sunday. Some tornado risk will exist as tropical cyclone Beryl approaches the middle Texas Gulf Coast. ...Synopsis... A broad upper-level trough will be located across much of the CONUS on Sunday. Shortwave perturbations within this broader cyclonic flow are expected to impact portions of the central/southern Plains during the afternoon/evening. At the surface, a somewhat complex surface pattern is expected. A convective outflow reinforced weak warm front appears to likely set up roughly along the Kansas/Oklahoma border. A modest surface low will deepen in the southern High Plains. A weak dryline feature will extend southward from this low. Along the middle/upper Texas Gulf Coast, low-level wind fields will increase with the approach of TC Beryl late Sunday night into Monday. ...Far southern Kansas into Oklahoma and North Texas... Convection is expected to be ongoing in parts of western/central Kansas Sunday morning, but is expected to weaken as the low-level jet decreases in strength. Dewpoints south of the boundary/outflow are expected to be in the upper 60s F. Heating of this moist airmass will promote 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE to develop by early/mid afternoon. Convergence along the boundary will increase as the surface low to the west deepens. Mid-level ascent by mid/late afternoon will also aid in increasing convective coverage. A few initial supercells are possible given 40-50 kts of effective shear parallel to the boundary, but upscale growth appears likely to occur quickly. Along the dryline in the eastern Texas Panhandle, storm coverage may be less, but 35-45 kts of effective shear across the boundary will promote a few supercells. The degree and timing of upscale growth along the dryline is less clear and could be modulated by outflow from storms near the Kansas/Oklahoma border. In terms of hazards, steep mid-level lapse rates, moderate effective shear, and initially favorable storm modes will bring a risk of large hail. Some hail could exceed 2 inches, but uncertainty of supercell coverage and the expected quick upscale growth limits confidence. Near the surface low, a tornado is possible. Again, this potential is likely to remain low given short duration of discrete storm modes. The main hazard will be severe/damaging winds as convection grows upscale. ...Middle/Upper Texas Gulf Coast... TC Beryl is expected to intensify into a hurricane as it approaches the middle Texas Gulf Coast per the latest NHC forecast. Low-level wind fields to the right of the track will become favorable for low-level rotation, especially where upper 70s F dewpoints infiltrate the coastal counties. A risk for tornadoes will exist from near the Corpus Christie area to the Sabine River. This threat will increase late Sunday night into Monday morning. ...Southeast Colorado into Southwest Kansas... Some surface moisture will be maintained into these areas. Dewpoints in the mid 50s F seem probable up against the terrain in southeast Colorado with slightly greater amounts in southwest Kansas. Storm initiation is most likely within the terrain with a few storms being capable of severe winds and marginally severe hail. Coverage is less certain along the outflow into Kansas, but low severe probabilities will be maintained for possible development during the afternoon. ..Wendt.. 07/06/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...WESTERN/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...AND PARTS OF THE MIDDLE/UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected in parts of the central and southern Plains on Sunday. Some tornado risk will exist as tropical cyclone Beryl approaches the middle Texas Gulf Coast. ...Synopsis... A broad upper-level trough will be located across much of the CONUS on Sunday. Shortwave perturbations within this broader cyclonic flow are expected to impact portions of the central/southern Plains during the afternoon/evening. At the surface, a somewhat complex surface pattern is expected. A convective outflow reinforced weak warm front appears to likely set up roughly along the Kansas/Oklahoma border. A modest surface low will deepen in the southern High Plains. A weak dryline feature will extend southward from this low. Along the middle/upper Texas Gulf Coast, low-level wind fields will increase with the approach of TC Beryl late Sunday night into Monday. ...Far southern Kansas into Oklahoma and North Texas... Convection is expected to be ongoing in parts of western/central Kansas Sunday morning, but is expected to weaken as the low-level jet decreases in strength. Dewpoints south of the boundary/outflow are expected to be in the upper 60s F. Heating of this moist airmass will promote 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE to develop by early/mid afternoon. Convergence along the boundary will increase as the surface low to the west deepens. Mid-level ascent by mid/late afternoon will also aid in increasing convective coverage. A few initial supercells are possible given 40-50 kts of effective shear parallel to the boundary, but upscale growth appears likely to occur quickly. Along the dryline in the eastern Texas Panhandle, storm coverage may be less, but 35-45 kts of effective shear across the boundary will promote a few supercells. The degree and timing of upscale growth along the dryline is less clear and could be modulated by outflow from storms near the Kansas/Oklahoma border. In terms of hazards, steep mid-level lapse rates, moderate effective shear, and initially favorable storm modes will bring a risk of large hail. Some hail could exceed 2 inches, but uncertainty of supercell coverage and the expected quick upscale growth limits confidence. Near the surface low, a tornado is possible. Again, this potential is likely to remain low given short duration of discrete storm modes. The main hazard will be severe/damaging winds as convection grows upscale. ...Middle/Upper Texas Gulf Coast... TC Beryl is expected to intensify into a hurricane as it approaches the middle Texas Gulf Coast per the latest NHC forecast. Low-level wind fields to the right of the track will become favorable for low-level rotation, especially where upper 70s F dewpoints infiltrate the coastal counties. A risk for tornadoes will exist from near the Corpus Christie area to the Sabine River. This threat will increase late Sunday night into Monday morning. ...Southeast Colorado into Southwest Kansas... Some surface moisture will be maintained into these areas. Dewpoints in the mid 50s F seem probable up against the terrain in southeast Colorado with slightly greater amounts in southwest Kansas. Storm initiation is most likely within the terrain with a few storms being capable of severe winds and marginally severe hail. Coverage is less certain along the outflow into Kansas, but low severe probabilities will be maintained for possible development during the afternoon. ..Wendt.. 07/06/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...WESTERN/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...AND PARTS OF THE MIDDLE/UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected in parts of the central and southern Plains on Sunday. Some tornado risk will exist as tropical cyclone Beryl approaches the middle Texas Gulf Coast. ...Synopsis... A broad upper-level trough will be located across much of the CONUS on Sunday. Shortwave perturbations within this broader cyclonic flow are expected to impact portions of the central/southern Plains during the afternoon/evening. At the surface, a somewhat complex surface pattern is expected. A convective outflow reinforced weak warm front appears to likely set up roughly along the Kansas/Oklahoma border. A modest surface low will deepen in the southern High Plains. A weak dryline feature will extend southward from this low. Along the middle/upper Texas Gulf Coast, low-level wind fields will increase with the approach of TC Beryl late Sunday night into Monday. ...Far southern Kansas into Oklahoma and North Texas... Convection is expected to be ongoing in parts of western/central Kansas Sunday morning, but is expected to weaken as the low-level jet decreases in strength. Dewpoints south of the boundary/outflow are expected to be in the upper 60s F. Heating of this moist airmass will promote 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE to develop by early/mid afternoon. Convergence along the boundary will increase as the surface low to the west deepens. Mid-level ascent by mid/late afternoon will also aid in increasing convective coverage. A few initial supercells are possible given 40-50 kts of effective shear parallel to the boundary, but upscale growth appears likely to occur quickly. Along the dryline in the eastern Texas Panhandle, storm coverage may be less, but 35-45 kts of effective shear across the boundary will promote a few supercells. The degree and timing of upscale growth along the dryline is less clear and could be modulated by outflow from storms near the Kansas/Oklahoma border. In terms of hazards, steep mid-level lapse rates, moderate effective shear, and initially favorable storm modes will bring a risk of large hail. Some hail could exceed 2 inches, but uncertainty of supercell coverage and the expected quick upscale growth limits confidence. Near the surface low, a tornado is possible. Again, this potential is likely to remain low given short duration of discrete storm modes. The main hazard will be severe/damaging winds as convection grows upscale. ...Middle/Upper Texas Gulf Coast... TC Beryl is expected to intensify into a hurricane as it approaches the middle Texas Gulf Coast per the latest NHC forecast. Low-level wind fields to the right of the track will become favorable for low-level rotation, especially where upper 70s F dewpoints infiltrate the coastal counties. A risk for tornadoes will exist from near the Corpus Christie area to the Sabine River. This threat will increase late Sunday night into Monday morning. ...Southeast Colorado into Southwest Kansas... Some surface moisture will be maintained into these areas. Dewpoints in the mid 50s F seem probable up against the terrain in southeast Colorado with slightly greater amounts in southwest Kansas. Storm initiation is most likely within the terrain with a few storms being capable of severe winds and marginally severe hail. Coverage is less certain along the outflow into Kansas, but low severe probabilities will be maintained for possible development during the afternoon. ..Wendt.. 07/06/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...WESTERN/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...AND PARTS OF THE MIDDLE/UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected in parts of the central and southern Plains on Sunday. Some tornado risk will exist as tropical cyclone Beryl approaches the middle Texas Gulf Coast. ...Synopsis... A broad upper-level trough will be located across much of the CONUS on Sunday. Shortwave perturbations within this broader cyclonic flow are expected to impact portions of the central/southern Plains during the afternoon/evening. At the surface, a somewhat complex surface pattern is expected. A convective outflow reinforced weak warm front appears to likely set up roughly along the Kansas/Oklahoma border. A modest surface low will deepen in the southern High Plains. A weak dryline feature will extend southward from this low. Along the middle/upper Texas Gulf Coast, low-level wind fields will increase with the approach of TC Beryl late Sunday night into Monday. ...Far southern Kansas into Oklahoma and North Texas... Convection is expected to be ongoing in parts of western/central Kansas Sunday morning, but is expected to weaken as the low-level jet decreases in strength. Dewpoints south of the boundary/outflow are expected to be in the upper 60s F. Heating of this moist airmass will promote 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE to develop by early/mid afternoon. Convergence along the boundary will increase as the surface low to the west deepens. Mid-level ascent by mid/late afternoon will also aid in increasing convective coverage. A few initial supercells are possible given 40-50 kts of effective shear parallel to the boundary, but upscale growth appears likely to occur quickly. Along the dryline in the eastern Texas Panhandle, storm coverage may be less, but 35-45 kts of effective shear across the boundary will promote a few supercells. The degree and timing of upscale growth along the dryline is less clear and could be modulated by outflow from storms near the Kansas/Oklahoma border. In terms of hazards, steep mid-level lapse rates, moderate effective shear, and initially favorable storm modes will bring a risk of large hail. Some hail could exceed 2 inches, but uncertainty of supercell coverage and the expected quick upscale growth limits confidence. Near the surface low, a tornado is possible. Again, this potential is likely to remain low given short duration of discrete storm modes. The main hazard will be severe/damaging winds as convection grows upscale. ...Middle/Upper Texas Gulf Coast... TC Beryl is expected to intensify into a hurricane as it approaches the middle Texas Gulf Coast per the latest NHC forecast. Low-level wind fields to the right of the track will become favorable for low-level rotation, especially where upper 70s F dewpoints infiltrate the coastal counties. A risk for tornadoes will exist from near the Corpus Christie area to the Sabine River. This threat will increase late Sunday night into Monday morning. ...Southeast Colorado into Southwest Kansas... Some surface moisture will be maintained into these areas. Dewpoints in the mid 50s F seem probable up against the terrain in southeast Colorado with slightly greater amounts in southwest Kansas. Storm initiation is most likely within the terrain with a few storms being capable of severe winds and marginally severe hail. Coverage is less certain along the outflow into Kansas, but low severe probabilities will be maintained for possible development during the afternoon. ..Wendt.. 07/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms, with isolated large hail and severe wind gusts, are expected today from the southern High Plains northeastward into the Upper Midwest. The greatest severe threat will likely be in the central Plains, where hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible. ...Great Plains/Upper Midwest... A shortwave trough within a belt of stronger mid-level flow, will move eastward across the central Plains today. At the surface, an associated low will move from southwestern Nebraska into northern Kansas, as a cold front to the west advances across the central Plains. By afternoon, several pockets of moderate instability will likely be in place from western Kansas northeastward into central and eastern Nebraska. Convection is first expected to develop to the north of the surface low in north-central Nebraska, with cell coverage gradually expanding southwestward into western Kansas. Several clusters of storms are expected to persist into the early to mid evening along the instability corridor from west-central Kansas into central eastern Nebraska. RAP forecast soundings along and near the instability axis during the late afternoon suggest that MLCAPE will peak in the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range. This, combined with 0-6 km shear in the 40 to 50 knot range, along with 700-500 mb lapse rates from 7 to 8 C/km should be favorable for supercells with large hail. The greatest potential for supercells is expected from northwest Kansas into central Nebraska, where forecast soundings have the most favorable thermodynamic environment. Within this area, the strongest of cells could produce hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter. The hail threat should be greatest during the late afternoon as instability maximizes across the central Plains. The potential for hail and severe wind gusts will likely continue into the early to mid evening, as a large cluster of storms develops and moves east-southeastward across the central Plains. Further west, isolated thunderstorms will also be possible behind the front from the central High Plains northeastward into southern South Dakota. In this area, lower surface dewpoints and weaker instability should keep any severe threat marginal. A marginal severe threat is also expected to develop southward across parts of the southern High Plains. Weaker large-scale ascent in the southern High Plains should keep cells more widely spaced, limiting severe threat coverage. ..Broyles/Supinie.. 07/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms, with isolated large hail and severe wind gusts, are expected today from the southern High Plains northeastward into the Upper Midwest. The greatest severe threat will likely be in the central Plains, where hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible. ...Great Plains/Upper Midwest... A shortwave trough within a belt of stronger mid-level flow, will move eastward across the central Plains today. At the surface, an associated low will move from southwestern Nebraska into northern Kansas, as a cold front to the west advances across the central Plains. By afternoon, several pockets of moderate instability will likely be in place from western Kansas northeastward into central and eastern Nebraska. Convection is first expected to develop to the north of the surface low in north-central Nebraska, with cell coverage gradually expanding southwestward into western Kansas. Several clusters of storms are expected to persist into the early to mid evening along the instability corridor from west-central Kansas into central eastern Nebraska. RAP forecast soundings along and near the instability axis during the late afternoon suggest that MLCAPE will peak in the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range. This, combined with 0-6 km shear in the 40 to 50 knot range, along with 700-500 mb lapse rates from 7 to 8 C/km should be favorable for supercells with large hail. The greatest potential for supercells is expected from northwest Kansas into central Nebraska, where forecast soundings have the most favorable thermodynamic environment. Within this area, the strongest of cells could produce hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter. The hail threat should be greatest during the late afternoon as instability maximizes across the central Plains. The potential for hail and severe wind gusts will likely continue into the early to mid evening, as a large cluster of storms develops and moves east-southeastward across the central Plains. Further west, isolated thunderstorms will also be possible behind the front from the central High Plains northeastward into southern South Dakota. In this area, lower surface dewpoints and weaker instability should keep any severe threat marginal. A marginal severe threat is also expected to develop southward across parts of the southern High Plains. Weaker large-scale ascent in the southern High Plains should keep cells more widely spaced, limiting severe threat coverage. ..Broyles/Supinie.. 07/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms, with isolated large hail and severe wind gusts, are expected today from the southern High Plains northeastward into the Upper Midwest. The greatest severe threat will likely be in the central Plains, where hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible. ...Great Plains/Upper Midwest... A shortwave trough within a belt of stronger mid-level flow, will move eastward across the central Plains today. At the surface, an associated low will move from southwestern Nebraska into northern Kansas, as a cold front to the west advances across the central Plains. By afternoon, several pockets of moderate instability will likely be in place from western Kansas northeastward into central and eastern Nebraska. Convection is first expected to develop to the north of the surface low in north-central Nebraska, with cell coverage gradually expanding southwestward into western Kansas. Several clusters of storms are expected to persist into the early to mid evening along the instability corridor from west-central Kansas into central eastern Nebraska. RAP forecast soundings along and near the instability axis during the late afternoon suggest that MLCAPE will peak in the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range. This, combined with 0-6 km shear in the 40 to 50 knot range, along with 700-500 mb lapse rates from 7 to 8 C/km should be favorable for supercells with large hail. The greatest potential for supercells is expected from northwest Kansas into central Nebraska, where forecast soundings have the most favorable thermodynamic environment. Within this area, the strongest of cells could produce hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter. The hail threat should be greatest during the late afternoon as instability maximizes across the central Plains. The potential for hail and severe wind gusts will likely continue into the early to mid evening, as a large cluster of storms develops and moves east-southeastward across the central Plains. Further west, isolated thunderstorms will also be possible behind the front from the central High Plains northeastward into southern South Dakota. In this area, lower surface dewpoints and weaker instability should keep any severe threat marginal. A marginal severe threat is also expected to develop southward across parts of the southern High Plains. Weaker large-scale ascent in the southern High Plains should keep cells more widely spaced, limiting severe threat coverage. ..Broyles/Supinie.. 07/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms, with isolated large hail and severe wind gusts, are expected today from the southern High Plains northeastward into the Upper Midwest. The greatest severe threat will likely be in the central Plains, where hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible. ...Great Plains/Upper Midwest... A shortwave trough within a belt of stronger mid-level flow, will move eastward across the central Plains today. At the surface, an associated low will move from southwestern Nebraska into northern Kansas, as a cold front to the west advances across the central Plains. By afternoon, several pockets of moderate instability will likely be in place from western Kansas northeastward into central and eastern Nebraska. Convection is first expected to develop to the north of the surface low in north-central Nebraska, with cell coverage gradually expanding southwestward into western Kansas. Several clusters of storms are expected to persist into the early to mid evening along the instability corridor from west-central Kansas into central eastern Nebraska. RAP forecast soundings along and near the instability axis during the late afternoon suggest that MLCAPE will peak in the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range. This, combined with 0-6 km shear in the 40 to 50 knot range, along with 700-500 mb lapse rates from 7 to 8 C/km should be favorable for supercells with large hail. The greatest potential for supercells is expected from northwest Kansas into central Nebraska, where forecast soundings have the most favorable thermodynamic environment. Within this area, the strongest of cells could produce hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter. The hail threat should be greatest during the late afternoon as instability maximizes across the central Plains. The potential for hail and severe wind gusts will likely continue into the early to mid evening, as a large cluster of storms develops and moves east-southeastward across the central Plains. Further west, isolated thunderstorms will also be possible behind the front from the central High Plains northeastward into southern South Dakota. In this area, lower surface dewpoints and weaker instability should keep any severe threat marginal. A marginal severe threat is also expected to develop southward across parts of the southern High Plains. Weaker large-scale ascent in the southern High Plains should keep cells more widely spaced, limiting severe threat coverage. ..Broyles/Supinie.. 07/06/2024 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 060526
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Fri Jul 5 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on
Aletta, which has become a remnant low located a few hundred miles
south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

WW 0507 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 507 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE 4CR TO 35 NNE ROW TO 35 SE ROW. ..SPC..07/06/24 ATTN...WFO...ABQ... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 507 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NMC005-027-060440- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHAVES LINCOLN THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 507 SEVERE TSTM NM 052320Z - 060500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 507 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 520 PM MDT Fri Jul 5 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern New Mexico * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 520 PM until 1100 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are developing off the higher terrain of central NM and will spread southeastward through the evening. The strongest storms may produce locally damaging winds and hail. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles northeast of Raton NM to 30 miles southeast of Roswell NM. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 31025. ...Hart Read more

MD 1542 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 507... FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO
Mesoscale Discussion 1542 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0843 PM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024 Areas affected...Eastern New Mexico Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 507... Valid 060143Z - 060315Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 507 continues. SUMMARY...Large hail threat continues with robust convection this evening. DISCUSSION...High-level diffluent flow continues across the southern Rockies early this evening. Isolated-scattered severe thunderstorms have evolved along the east slopes of the higher terrain where southeasterly low-level flow has maintained moisture (55-60F surface dew points) coincident with strong boundary-layer heating. Several supercells have evolved, and a small cluster appears to be evolving from Guadalupe into northern Chaves County. This activity will likely continue propagating south along the primary instability axis given the modest northwesterly 500mb flow. More isolated activity will continue south into far west Texas. Radar continues to suggest the primary risk is large hail, likely exceeding golf ball sized in the strongest updrafts. ..Darrow.. 07/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ... LAT...LON 34860438 32750416 32720554 34900521 34860438 Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 06 Jul 2024 02:33:57 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 06 Jul 2024 03:28:38 GMT

Issued at 800 PM MST Fri Jul 05 2024 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 060232 TCDEP1 Post-Tropical Cyclone Aletta Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012024 800 PM MST Fri Jul 05 2024 Convection has continued to diminish in association with Aletta. Little or no organized deep convection has been seen since late Thursday morning. Both the GFS and the ECMWF simulated satellite imagery do not indicate any return of deep convection. Given the marginal environment, the remnant low should continue to spin down. Aletta is forecast to dissipate on Saturday. Do to the very poor appearance on satellite imagery and the lack of any pressure gradients in the area, the initial intensity has been lowered to 20 kt. Socorro Island measured a maximum wind of 21 kt a few hours ago as Aletta passed just south of the island. Earlier ASCAT-B data from 1712 UTC only showed peak winds in the 20-25 kt range at that time. No significant change has been made to the NHC track forecast. Aletta should continue to be steered by the low-level flow in a direction just south of due west until it dissipates. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0300Z 18.4N 111.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 06/1200Z 18.3N 112.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hagen/Cangialosi

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT JUL 06 2024 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 060232 PWSEP1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ALETTA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012024 0300 UTC SAT JUL 06 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ALETTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 20 KTS...25 MPH...35 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER HAGEN/CANGIALOSI

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT JUL 06 2024 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 060232 TCMEP1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ALETTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012024 0300 UTC SAT JUL 06 2024 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 111.6W AT 06/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 111.6W AT 06/0300Z AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 111.2W FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 18.3N 112.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N 111.6W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM $$ FORECASTER HAGEN/CANGIALOSI

Issued at 800 PM MST Fri Jul 05 2024 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 060232 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Aletta Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012024 800 PM MST Fri Jul 05 2024 ...ALETTA DEGENERATES TO A REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE FINAL ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 800 PM MST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.4N 111.6W ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...25 MPH...35 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM MST (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Aletta was located near latitude 18.4 North, longitude 111.6 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue until Aletta dissipates on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 25 mph (35 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast to continue, and Aletta is expected to dissipate on Saturday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. $$ Forecaster Hagen/Cangialosi

...ALETTA DEGENERATES TO A REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE FINAL ADVISORY... As of 8:00 PM MST Fri Jul 5 the center of Aletta was located near 18.4, -111.6 with movement W at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 25 mph.

WW 0507 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 507 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SPC..07/06/24 ATTN...WFO...ABQ... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 507 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NMC005-007-009-011-019-021-027-033-037-041-047-059-060240- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHAVES COLFAX CURRY DE BACA GUADALUPE HARDING LINCOLN MORA QUAY ROOSEVELT SAN MIGUEL UNION THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more