Aggregator

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 250505
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sun Aug 24 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Ten-E, located in the east Pacific basin, several hundred
miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Central East Pacific:
An area of low pressure is likely to form in a few days well to the
south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.
Subsequent slow development is possible late this week into the
weekend as the system moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to
15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Ten-E are issued under WMO
header WTPZ35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP5.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Ten-E are issued under
WMO header WTPZ25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP5.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

The Catawba-Wateree River Basin has returned to normal conditions after recent weeks of rain. Hoodline Charlotte (N.C.), Aug 25, 2025 The Catawba-Wateree Drought Management Advisory Group announced that the river system was in Stage 0 of its drought protocol, which means increased monitoring of the reservoirs. Stage 0 does not yet require any water conservation steps. WSOC-TV ABC 9 Charlotte (N.C.), April 3, 2025

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 25 Aug 2025 02:34:45 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 25 Aug 2025 03:27:39 GMT

MD 2013 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 603... FOR PARTS OF THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 2013 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0918 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025 Areas affected...Parts of the eastern Texas Panhandle Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 603... Valid 250218Z - 250315Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 603 continues. SUMMARY...A localized risk of severe hail and wind continues across parts of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 603 in the eastern Texas Panhandle. DISCUSSION...The latest radar data from KAMA shows ongoing convection moving southward across the eastern TX Panhandle, including one discrete supercell moving across Gray/Donley Counties. This storm is approaching the southern edge of a weakly unstable air mass, where around 30 kt of effective shear will continue to promote a risk of large hail and locally severe gusts in the near term. However, given limited residence time in the surface-based buoyancy and a gradual increase in nocturnal PBL static stability, the severe risk should gradually decrease over the next couple hours, and a downstream watch is not currently expected. ..Weinman.. 08/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA... LAT...LON 34630041 34800111 35200116 35400082 35490039 35349993 35009982 34769997 34630041 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 25 Aug 2025 02:34:45 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 25 Aug 2025 02:34:45 GMT

Issued at 800 PM MST Sun Aug 24 2025 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 250233 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102025 800 PM MST Sun Aug 24 2025 The depression has changed little over the past several hours, and it continues to maintain a broad structure with numerous bands of deep convection. The convection, however, is not particularly well organized and remains confined to the western half of the circulation due to moderate northeasterly vertical wind shear. The initial intensity remains 30 kt based on a blend of the latest satellite estimates. Tropical Depression Ten-E is moving west-northwestward at 11 kt on the south side of a subtropical high. This general motion is expected to continue during the next day or so as the steering pattern persists. After that time, a gradual turn to the northwest and then the north-northwest is forecast as the system moves into a weakness within the subtropical ridge. The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one, and lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. The shear over the system is expected to lessen soon, and that should allow the cyclone to strengthen over the next day or two. However, any strengthening is likely to be short-lived as the system is expected to move over sub 26C waters in about 48 hours. The expected track over cooler water combined with a progressively drier airmass should cause a weakening trend, and ultimately lead to the system becoming a post-tropical low in about 4 days. The NHC intensity forecast is slightly higher than the previous one and lies fairly close to the IVCN consensus aid. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0300Z 16.5N 110.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 25/1200Z 17.2N 112.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 26/0000Z 18.2N 114.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 26/1200Z 19.2N 116.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 27/0000Z 20.4N 117.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 27/1200Z 21.7N 119.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 28/0000Z 23.0N 120.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 29/0000Z 25.0N 121.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 30/0000Z 26.3N 122.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Issued at 0300 UTC MON AUG 25 2025 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 250233 PWSEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102025 0300 UTC MON AUG 25 2025 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 1 37(38) 20(58) 1(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) ISLA CLARION 50 X 6( 6) 7(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 20N 115W 34 X 4( 4) 22(26) 3(29) 1(30) X(30) X(30) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 5(16) 1(17) X(17) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 7(17) 1(18) 25N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Issued at 0300 UTC MON AUG 25 2025 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 250232 TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102025 0300 UTC MON AUG 25 2025 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 110.6W AT 25/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 110.6W AT 25/0300Z AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 110.1W FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 17.2N 112.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 18.2N 114.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 19.2N 116.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 20.4N 117.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 21.7N 119.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 23.0N 120.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 25.0N 121.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 26.3N 122.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N 110.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Issued at 800 PM MST Sun Aug 24 2025 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 250232 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Ten-E Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102025 800 PM MST Sun Aug 24 2025 ...DEPRESSION FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... SUMMARY OF 800 PM MST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.5N 110.6W ABOUT 445 MI...715 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM MST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ten-E was located near latitude 16.5 North, longitude 110.6 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue during the next day or two, followed by a motion to the northwest. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the system will likely become a tropical storm on Monday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM MST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

...DEPRESSION FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... As of 8:00 PM MST Sun Aug 24 the center of Ten-E was located near 16.5, -110.6 with movement WNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

WW 0603 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 603 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 E LBL TO 25 NNW CSM TO 35 NW CHK. ..WEINMAN..08/25/25 ATTN...WFO...AMA...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 603 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC007-009-039-045-055-057-065-075-129-139-149-250240- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAVER BECKHAM CUSTER ELLIS GREER HARMON JACKSON KIOWA ROGER MILLS TEXAS WASHITA TXC087-129-179-195-211-233-295-357-393-421-483-250240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COLLINGSWORTH DONLEY GRAY HANSFORD HEMPHILL HUTCHINSON LIPSCOMB OCHILTREE ROBERTS SHERMAN WHEELER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES Read more

WW 0603 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 603 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 E LBL TO 25 NNW CSM TO 35 NW CHK. ..WEINMAN..08/25/25 ATTN...WFO...AMA...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 603 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC007-009-039-045-055-057-065-075-129-139-149-250240- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAVER BECKHAM CUSTER ELLIS GREER HARMON JACKSON KIOWA ROGER MILLS TEXAS WASHITA TXC087-129-179-195-211-233-295-357-393-421-483-250240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COLLINGSWORTH DONLEY GRAY HANSFORD HEMPHILL HUTCHINSON LIPSCOMB OCHILTREE ROBERTS SHERMAN WHEELER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES Read more

WW 0603 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 603 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 E LBL TO 25 NNW CSM TO 35 NW CHK. ..WEINMAN..08/25/25 ATTN...WFO...AMA...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 603 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC007-009-039-045-055-057-065-075-129-139-149-250240- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAVER BECKHAM CUSTER ELLIS GREER HARMON JACKSON KIOWA ROGER MILLS TEXAS WASHITA TXC087-129-179-195-211-233-295-357-393-421-483-250240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COLLINGSWORTH DONLEY GRAY HANSFORD HEMPHILL HUTCHINSON LIPSCOMB OCHILTREE ROBERTS SHERMAN WHEELER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES Read more

WW 603 SEVERE TSTM OK TX 250020Z - 250400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 603 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 720 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western Oklahoma Eastern Texas Panhandle * Effective this Sunday evening from 720 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80 mph possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A cluster of severe thunderstorms will likely continue to pose a risk for severe gusts (60-80 mph) and large to very large hail (1 to 2.5 inches in diameter) through the mid evening hours. Additional storm development is possible over the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles this evening. These potential additional storms may yield a risk for large hail and severe gusts as well. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles east northeast of Guymon OK to 25 miles west of Altus OK. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 602... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 34025. ...Smith Read more

WW 0602 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 602 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE TAD TO 25 NW LIC. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2012 ..WEINMAN..08/25/25 ATTN...WFO...PUB...GLD...BOU... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 602 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC011-017-025-061-063-073-089-099-250240- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENT CHEYENNE CROWLEY KIOWA KIT CARSON LINCOLN OTERO PROWERS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0602 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 602 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE TAD TO 25 NW LIC. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2012 ..WEINMAN..08/25/25 ATTN...WFO...PUB...GLD...BOU... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 602 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC011-017-025-061-063-073-089-099-250240- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENT CHEYENNE CROWLEY KIOWA KIT CARSON LINCOLN OTERO PROWERS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0602 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 602 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE TAD TO 25 NW LIC. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2012 ..WEINMAN..08/25/25 ATTN...WFO...PUB...GLD...BOU... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 602 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC011-017-025-061-063-073-089-099-250240- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENT CHEYENNE CROWLEY KIOWA KIT CARSON LINCOLN OTERO PROWERS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 602 SEVERE TSTM CO 242055Z - 250300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 602 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 255 PM MDT Sun Aug 24 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern Colorado * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 255 PM until 900 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Multiple supercells should continue to pose a threat for mainly large hail up to 1-2 inches in diameter as they move slowly south-southeastward across parts of eastern Colorado this afternoon and evening. Occasional severe/damaging winds may also occur. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles north and south of a line from 20 miles west northwest of Pueblo CO to 35 miles south southeast of Burlington CO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 35020. ...Gleason Read more

MD 2012 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 602... FOR PARTS OF EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO
Mesoscale Discussion 2012 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0707 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025 Areas affected...Parts of east-central and southeastern Colorado Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 602... Valid 250007Z - 250130Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 602 continues. SUMMARY...The risk of large hail and locally severe gusts continues across parts of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 602 in southeast and east-central Colorado. DISCUSSION...A couple semi-discrete storms are evolving slowly southward along outflow boundaries in east-central and southeastern CO. Warm/moist inflow for these storms (lower 60s dewpoints) and around 40 kt of effective shear should continue to favor transient supercell structures for the next couple hours -- prior to the onset of nocturnal static stability. The stronger/longer-lived storms will continue to pose a risk of large hail and locally severe gusts. ..Weinman.. 08/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU... LAT...LON 37630238 37690315 38290419 38930444 39300417 39320387 38460221 37940195 37630238 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

MD 2011 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN TX PANHANDLE AND FAR WESTERN OK
Mesoscale Discussion 2011 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0646 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025 Areas affected...Eastern TX Panhandle and far western OK Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 242346Z - 250115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Isolated large hail and locally severe gusts are possible for the next couple hours. A watch is not currently expected, though trends are being monitored. DISCUSSION...A couple of discrete storms have recently intensified along a north/south-oriented surface boundary extending across the far eastern TX Panhandle, while a separate storm cluster has been evolving along an antecedent outflow boundary in northwest OK. Ahead of these storms, a warm/moist PBL (lower 60s dewpoints) and modest midlevel lapse rates are yielding weak surface-based buoyancy. However, around 40 kt of effective shear should continue to favor supercell structure, with a risk of isolated large to very large hail and locally severe gusts. The severe risk should persist for another couple hours, prior to increasing nocturnal static stability. Given the potentially limited spatiotemporal nature of the threat, it is unclear if a watch is needed, though trends are being monitored. ..Weinman/Smith.. 08/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA... LAT...LON 34739996 34810055 35040084 35390102 35970101 36440052 36520027 36429967 36129890 35569873 35169881 34839925 34739996 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more