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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0738 AM CDT Mon Aug 25 2025 Valid 251300Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe wind gusts are possible over parts of south-central Arizona this afternoon through early evening. Otherwise, the potential for severe storms is low across the remainder of the continental U.S. ..Synopsis... A large upper-level trough will continue to amplify across the eastern CONUS today. High pressure, currently analyzed across the northern Plains early this morning will expand slowly southward through the day which will push the polar front off the Atlantic coast and perhaps into the Gulf. A persistent upper-level ridge will exist across the Southwest and into the Great Basin/Rocky Mountains. Beneath this ridge, a continued monsoon push will result in widespread thunderstorm activity this afternoon/evening. ...Southern Arizona... Thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon/evening across much of the Southwest amid weak to moderate instability (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE) as temperatures cool aloft. A belt of stronger mid-level southeasterly flow (20-25 kt) is forecast to overspread the region and provide ample shear for some multicell storm clusters. Initial storms which are expected to form across the higher terrain in southeast Arizona may result in congealing outflow with a damaging wind threat as storms move generally west-northwestward through the evening. ..Guyer/Kerr.. 08/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0738 AM CDT Mon Aug 25 2025 Valid 251300Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe wind gusts are possible over parts of south-central Arizona this afternoon through early evening. Otherwise, the potential for severe storms is low across the remainder of the continental U.S. ..Synopsis... A large upper-level trough will continue to amplify across the eastern CONUS today. High pressure, currently analyzed across the northern Plains early this morning will expand slowly southward through the day which will push the polar front off the Atlantic coast and perhaps into the Gulf. A persistent upper-level ridge will exist across the Southwest and into the Great Basin/Rocky Mountains. Beneath this ridge, a continued monsoon push will result in widespread thunderstorm activity this afternoon/evening. ...Southern Arizona... Thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon/evening across much of the Southwest amid weak to moderate instability (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE) as temperatures cool aloft. A belt of stronger mid-level southeasterly flow (20-25 kt) is forecast to overspread the region and provide ample shear for some multicell storm clusters. Initial storms which are expected to form across the higher terrain in southeast Arizona may result in congealing outflow with a damaging wind threat as storms move generally west-northwestward through the evening. ..Guyer/Kerr.. 08/25/2025 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 251139
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Mon Aug 25 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
upgraded Tropical Storm Juliette, located in the east Pacific
basin several hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula.

Central East Pacific:
An area of low pressure is likely to form in a few days well to the
south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.
Subsequent slow development is possible late this week into the
weekend as the system moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to
15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

&&

Public Advisories on Juliette are issued under WMO header WTPZ35
KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP5. Forecast/Advisories on
Juliette are issued under WMO header WTPZ25 KNHC and under AWIPS
header MIATCMEP5.

$$
Forecaster Berg

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 25 Aug 2025 08:37:19 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 25 Aug 2025 09:27:45 GMT

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CDT Mon Aug 25 2025 Valid 281200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6... On Thursday, a large-scale mid-level trough is forecast to be in place over the eastern U.S., as a ridge remains over the central Rockies. A pocket of moderate instability could develop in the Ark-La-Tex Thursday afternoon, near an east-to-west front in the Red River Valley. Enough deep-layer is forecast for an isolated severe threat, but some uncertainty exists concerning the magnitude of any threat. The front is forecast to move southward into the Gulf Coast states on Friday. Thunderstorm development will be possible near the front from east Texas into Louisiana, where an isolated severe threat could again develop during the afternoon. However, deep-layer shear is forecast to remain relatively weak, would should keep any severe threat marginal. Further northwest on Friday, an axis of instability is forecast across the southern and central High Plains. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms could develop along and near this axis from late afternoon into the evening. This same potential will be possible on Saturday as the instability axis remains in place across the southern and central High Plains. The combination of instability and deep-layer shear is forecast to be sufficient for a marginal severe threat both on Friday and Saturday. ...Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8... From Sunday into Monday, a mid-level ridge is forecast to move eastward across the southern and central Plains. In the wake of this feature, scattered thunderstorms could develop across the High Plains near a north-to-south axis of instability. A marginal severe threat will be possible each afternoon and evening, but deep-layer shear is forecast remain relatively weak. This should be a limiting factor concerning any severe potential. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CDT Mon Aug 25 2025 Valid 281200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6... On Thursday, a large-scale mid-level trough is forecast to be in place over the eastern U.S., as a ridge remains over the central Rockies. A pocket of moderate instability could develop in the Ark-La-Tex Thursday afternoon, near an east-to-west front in the Red River Valley. Enough deep-layer is forecast for an isolated severe threat, but some uncertainty exists concerning the magnitude of any threat. The front is forecast to move southward into the Gulf Coast states on Friday. Thunderstorm development will be possible near the front from east Texas into Louisiana, where an isolated severe threat could again develop during the afternoon. However, deep-layer shear is forecast to remain relatively weak, would should keep any severe threat marginal. Further northwest on Friday, an axis of instability is forecast across the southern and central High Plains. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms could develop along and near this axis from late afternoon into the evening. This same potential will be possible on Saturday as the instability axis remains in place across the southern and central High Plains. The combination of instability and deep-layer shear is forecast to be sufficient for a marginal severe threat both on Friday and Saturday. ...Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8... From Sunday into Monday, a mid-level ridge is forecast to move eastward across the southern and central Plains. In the wake of this feature, scattered thunderstorms could develop across the High Plains near a north-to-south axis of instability. A marginal severe threat will be possible each afternoon and evening, but deep-layer shear is forecast remain relatively weak. This should be a limiting factor concerning any severe potential. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CDT Mon Aug 25 2025 Valid 281200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6... On Thursday, a large-scale mid-level trough is forecast to be in place over the eastern U.S., as a ridge remains over the central Rockies. A pocket of moderate instability could develop in the Ark-La-Tex Thursday afternoon, near an east-to-west front in the Red River Valley. Enough deep-layer is forecast for an isolated severe threat, but some uncertainty exists concerning the magnitude of any threat. The front is forecast to move southward into the Gulf Coast states on Friday. Thunderstorm development will be possible near the front from east Texas into Louisiana, where an isolated severe threat could again develop during the afternoon. However, deep-layer shear is forecast to remain relatively weak, would should keep any severe threat marginal. Further northwest on Friday, an axis of instability is forecast across the southern and central High Plains. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms could develop along and near this axis from late afternoon into the evening. This same potential will be possible on Saturday as the instability axis remains in place across the southern and central High Plains. The combination of instability and deep-layer shear is forecast to be sufficient for a marginal severe threat both on Friday and Saturday. ...Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8... From Sunday into Monday, a mid-level ridge is forecast to move eastward across the southern and central Plains. In the wake of this feature, scattered thunderstorms could develop across the High Plains near a north-to-south axis of instability. A marginal severe threat will be possible each afternoon and evening, but deep-layer shear is forecast remain relatively weak. This should be a limiting factor concerning any severe potential. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CDT Mon Aug 25 2025 Valid 281200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6... On Thursday, a large-scale mid-level trough is forecast to be in place over the eastern U.S., as a ridge remains over the central Rockies. A pocket of moderate instability could develop in the Ark-La-Tex Thursday afternoon, near an east-to-west front in the Red River Valley. Enough deep-layer is forecast for an isolated severe threat, but some uncertainty exists concerning the magnitude of any threat. The front is forecast to move southward into the Gulf Coast states on Friday. Thunderstorm development will be possible near the front from east Texas into Louisiana, where an isolated severe threat could again develop during the afternoon. However, deep-layer shear is forecast to remain relatively weak, would should keep any severe threat marginal. Further northwest on Friday, an axis of instability is forecast across the southern and central High Plains. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms could develop along and near this axis from late afternoon into the evening. This same potential will be possible on Saturday as the instability axis remains in place across the southern and central High Plains. The combination of instability and deep-layer shear is forecast to be sufficient for a marginal severe threat both on Friday and Saturday. ...Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8... From Sunday into Monday, a mid-level ridge is forecast to move eastward across the southern and central Plains. In the wake of this feature, scattered thunderstorms could develop across the High Plains near a north-to-south axis of instability. A marginal severe threat will be possible each afternoon and evening, but deep-layer shear is forecast remain relatively weak. This should be a limiting factor concerning any severe potential. Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 25 Aug 2025 08:37:19 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 25 Aug 2025 08:37:19 GMT

Issued at 200 AM MST Mon Aug 25 2025 264 WTPZ45 KNHC 250835 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Juliette Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102025 200 AM MST Mon Aug 25 2025 Since the time of the previous NHC advisory, the sheared convective burst associated with the tropical cyclone has grown larger, with a large area of cloud tops colder than -80C on GOES-West infrared imagery. Furthermore, the low level center, which had been exposed to the east of the burst, appears to have moved underneath the eastern edge of the convection. This suggests the moderate northeasterly vertical wind shear is weakening. The UW-CIMSS objective intensity estimates have been steadily increasing, and are now in the 32-35 kt range. TAFB provided a subjective Dvorak estimate of 35 kt, and an ASCAT pass from 25/0441 UTC showed a few 35 kt vectors in the deep convection that might have been a bit rain-inflated. Regardless of the accuracy of the ASCAT data, given the improving satellite presentation and persistence of the large, cold convective mass, the depression is upgraded to Tropical Storm Juliette with a 35-kt intensity. Juliette is moving west-northwestward, or 290/11 kt on the south side of a subtropical high. This general motion is expected to continue during the next day or so. After that time, a gradual turn to the northwest is forecast as the system is influenced by a weakness in the subtropical ridge. The model guidance has shifted to the left and a bit faster compared to the previous cycle, and so has the NHC forecast. The latest official forecast is in best agreement with the HFIP corrected consensus (HCCA) model. Spread in the model guidance increases by day 3, and the NHC forecast shows the cyclone slowing down at that time, similar to consensus aids. Environmental conditions appear favorable for Juliette to strengthen for at least 36-42 more hours. The 10-kt northeasterly vertical shear being experienced by the cyclone should diminish to single digits later today, while the system traverses warm ocean waters. By 48 h, Juliette should reach colder waters and a more stable atmosphere, and these conditions will induce weakening. The latest NHC intensity forecast is slightly higher than the previous one and lies at the high end of the model guidance at 36-48 h. The reason for this is that with the shift in the forecast track to the left, Juliette should have a few additional hours to strengthen before it reaches the less favorable conditions. With the decreasing shear later today, there should be enough time for Juliette to become a high-end tropical storm. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0900Z 16.8N 111.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 25/1800Z 17.5N 113.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 26/0600Z 18.4N 115.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 26/1800Z 19.4N 117.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 27/0600Z 20.6N 118.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 27/1800Z 21.9N 120.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 28/0600Z 23.2N 121.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 29/0600Z 25.0N 122.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 30/0600Z 25.9N 122.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Hagen

Issued at 0900 UTC MON AUG 25 2025 270 FOPZ15 KNHC 250835 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102025 0900 UTC MON AUG 25 2025 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 8 65(73) 1(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) ISLA CLARION 50 X 15(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) ISLA CLARION 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 15N 115W 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 115W 34 1 15(16) 10(26) 1(27) 1(28) X(28) X(28) 20N 120W 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 23(30) 4(34) X(34) X(34) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 3(12) X(12) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) $$ FORECASTER HAGEN

Issued at 200 AM MST Mon Aug 25 2025 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 250835 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Juliette Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102025 200 AM MST Mon Aug 25 2025 ...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO TENTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE 2025 EAST PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON... SUMMARY OF 200 AM MST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.8N 111.8W ABOUT 440 MI...705 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM MST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Juliette was located near latitude 16.8 North, longitude 111.8 West. Juliette is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue during the next day or two, followed by a motion to the northwest. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast through Tuesday. Weakening should begin on Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM MST. $$ Forecaster Hagen

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO TENTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE 2025 EAST PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON... As of 2:00 AM MST Mon Aug 25 the center of Juliette was located near 16.8, -111.8 with movement WNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Issued at 0900 UTC MON AUG 25 2025 992 WTPZ25 KNHC 250834 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102025 0900 UTC MON AUG 25 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 111.8W AT 25/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 111.8W AT 25/0900Z AT 25/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 111.3W FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 17.5N 113.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 18.4N 115.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 19.4N 117.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 20.6N 118.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 21.9N 120.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 23.2N 121.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 25.0N 122.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 25.9N 122.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.8N 111.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/1500Z $$ FORECASTER HAGEN

Issued at 0900 UTC MON AUG 25 2025 ZCZC MIATCMEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102025 0900 UTC MON AUG 25 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 111.8W AT 25/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 111.8W AT 25/0900Z AT 25/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 111.3W FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 17.5N 113.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 18.4N 115.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 19.4N 117.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 20.6N 118.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 21.9N 120.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 23.2N 121.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 25.0N 122.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 25.9N 122.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.8N 111.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/1500Z $$ FORECASTER HAGEN NNNN

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 AM CDT Mon Aug 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The potential for severe storms appears to be low across the continental U.S. for Wednesday and Wednesday night. ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level cyclonic flow pattern is forecast to be maintained over much of the eastern half of the nation on Wednesday, as a shortwave ridge stays in place over the southern and central Rockies. At the surface, a large area of high pressure will remain centered on the mid Mississippi Valley. Along the western periphery of this post-frontal airmass, low-level moisture return is forecast over the southern plains on Wednesday. An axis of instability appears likely to develop by late afternoon along the northern edge of the returning low-level moisture from western Oklahoma into southwest Kansas. As an 850 mb jet strengthens during the evening, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop from near this instability axis eastward across parts of central and eastern Kansas. It appears this convection will remain non-severe, and may be primarily elevated in nature. Elsewhere across the continental U.S., no severe threat is expected Wednesday or Wednesday night. ..Broyles.. 08/25/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 AM CDT Mon Aug 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The potential for severe storms appears to be low across the continental U.S. for Wednesday and Wednesday night. ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level cyclonic flow pattern is forecast to be maintained over much of the eastern half of the nation on Wednesday, as a shortwave ridge stays in place over the southern and central Rockies. At the surface, a large area of high pressure will remain centered on the mid Mississippi Valley. Along the western periphery of this post-frontal airmass, low-level moisture return is forecast over the southern plains on Wednesday. An axis of instability appears likely to develop by late afternoon along the northern edge of the returning low-level moisture from western Oklahoma into southwest Kansas. As an 850 mb jet strengthens during the evening, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop from near this instability axis eastward across parts of central and eastern Kansas. It appears this convection will remain non-severe, and may be primarily elevated in nature. Elsewhere across the continental U.S., no severe threat is expected Wednesday or Wednesday night. ..Broyles.. 08/25/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 AM CDT Mon Aug 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The potential for severe storms appears to be low across the continental U.S. for Wednesday and Wednesday night. ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level cyclonic flow pattern is forecast to be maintained over much of the eastern half of the nation on Wednesday, as a shortwave ridge stays in place over the southern and central Rockies. At the surface, a large area of high pressure will remain centered on the mid Mississippi Valley. Along the western periphery of this post-frontal airmass, low-level moisture return is forecast over the southern plains on Wednesday. An axis of instability appears likely to develop by late afternoon along the northern edge of the returning low-level moisture from western Oklahoma into southwest Kansas. As an 850 mb jet strengthens during the evening, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop from near this instability axis eastward across parts of central and eastern Kansas. It appears this convection will remain non-severe, and may be primarily elevated in nature. Elsewhere across the continental U.S., no severe threat is expected Wednesday or Wednesday night. ..Broyles.. 08/25/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CDT Mon Aug 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...Synopsis... Well-established monsoonal moisture will remain in place across the Northwest on Tuesday. Boundary-layer mixing beneath the rich midlevel moisture will contribute to sufficient buoyancy for diurnally driven high-based thunderstorms along the Cascades, where fuels are dry. Inverted-V profiles and 0.80-0.90 inch PW will favor a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms capable of producing gusty/erratic outflow winds and lightning-induced ignitions. A continuation of wet/dry thunderstorms are also expected across parts of northern CA and the northern Rockies, though uncertainty regarding fuel receptiveness in these areas precludes highlights at this time. ..Weinman.. 08/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CDT Mon Aug 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...Synopsis... Well-established monsoonal moisture will remain in place across the Northwest on Tuesday. Boundary-layer mixing beneath the rich midlevel moisture will contribute to sufficient buoyancy for diurnally driven high-based thunderstorms along the Cascades, where fuels are dry. Inverted-V profiles and 0.80-0.90 inch PW will favor a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms capable of producing gusty/erratic outflow winds and lightning-induced ignitions. A continuation of wet/dry thunderstorms are also expected across parts of northern CA and the northern Rockies, though uncertainty regarding fuel receptiveness in these areas precludes highlights at this time. ..Weinman.. 08/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more