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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 AM CDT Mon Aug 25 2025 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z The forecast remains on track, and please see the previous discussion for more details. ..Nauslar.. 08/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Mon Aug 25 2025/ ...Synopsis... Along the northern periphery of a midlevel ridge centered on the Four Corners region, monsoonal moisture atop a warm/dry boundary layer will support isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorms across the Northwest -- with a focus over the higher terrain. Over the Cascades, PW values of 0.70-0.90 inches will favor a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms over receptive fuels, posing a risk of lightning-induced ignitions and gusty/erratic outflow winds. Thunderstorm potential is more uncertain over the WA Cascades owing to limited monsoonal moisture compared to areas farther south. Nevertheless, any storms that do form will be dry and pose a risk of new starts. A continuation of wet/dry thunderstorms are also expected across northern CA, though recent rainfall and 1+ inch PW cast uncertainty on overall ignition potential. For central ID into southwest MT, mixed wet/dry thunderstorms may pose a short-term risk of lightning-induced ignitions; however, increasing rainfall in the coming days should limit the overall risk. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Mon Aug 25 2025 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe wind gusts are possible over parts of south-central Arizona this afternoon through early evening. Otherwise, the potential for severe storms is low across the remainder of the continental U.S. ...Synopsis... A large upper trough will remain over the eastern CONUS today, as several embedded shortwave troughs progress within its southern periphery. Extensive upper ridging that currently extends from the southern Plains into the northern Intermountain West is forecast to remain largely in place. Some dampening may occur along the northwestern periphery of this ridging as a slow-moving vorticity maximum continues northeastward from the CO/OR/NV border vicinity into more of eastern OR. Ample monsoonal moisture exists beneath this ridging, contributing to scattered to numerous thunderstorms from the southern/central Rockies westward across the Southwest and much of the Great Basin. Limited vertical shear and weak buoyancy will mitigate the severe potential across the majority of the region. The only exceptions are across central Rockies and immediate foothills, and portions of southern AZ. ...Southern AZ... Ample monsoonal moisture is in place across the region, evidenced by PW values of 1.66 and 1.83 inches from the Phoenix and Yuma 12Z soundings, respectively. Filtered diurnal heating within this moist airmass will support modest buoyancy and afternoon thunderstorm development. A belt of stronger mid-level southeasterly flow (20-25 kt) is forecast to overspread the region this afternoon, providing ample shear for some multicell storm clusters. Initial storms which are expected to form across the higher terrain in southeast Arizona may result in congealing outflow with a damaging wind threat as storms move generally west-northwestward through the evening. ...Central Rockies... Thunderstorm development is expected across the high terrain by the early afternoon. Poor lapse rates and cooler temperatures will keep buoyancy will be modest, likely limiting overall updraft strength and tempering the severe potential. Even so, moderate northwesterly flow aloft will support long hodographs and the potential for some storm organization if updrafts can become sufficiently deep. An instance or two of hail is possible with any stronger, more long-lived storms. ..Mosier/Moore.. 08/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Mon Aug 25 2025 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe wind gusts are possible over parts of south-central Arizona this afternoon through early evening. Otherwise, the potential for severe storms is low across the remainder of the continental U.S. ...Synopsis... A large upper trough will remain over the eastern CONUS today, as several embedded shortwave troughs progress within its southern periphery. Extensive upper ridging that currently extends from the southern Plains into the northern Intermountain West is forecast to remain largely in place. Some dampening may occur along the northwestern periphery of this ridging as a slow-moving vorticity maximum continues northeastward from the CO/OR/NV border vicinity into more of eastern OR. Ample monsoonal moisture exists beneath this ridging, contributing to scattered to numerous thunderstorms from the southern/central Rockies westward across the Southwest and much of the Great Basin. Limited vertical shear and weak buoyancy will mitigate the severe potential across the majority of the region. The only exceptions are across central Rockies and immediate foothills, and portions of southern AZ. ...Southern AZ... Ample monsoonal moisture is in place across the region, evidenced by PW values of 1.66 and 1.83 inches from the Phoenix and Yuma 12Z soundings, respectively. Filtered diurnal heating within this moist airmass will support modest buoyancy and afternoon thunderstorm development. A belt of stronger mid-level southeasterly flow (20-25 kt) is forecast to overspread the region this afternoon, providing ample shear for some multicell storm clusters. Initial storms which are expected to form across the higher terrain in southeast Arizona may result in congealing outflow with a damaging wind threat as storms move generally west-northwestward through the evening. ...Central Rockies... Thunderstorm development is expected across the high terrain by the early afternoon. Poor lapse rates and cooler temperatures will keep buoyancy will be modest, likely limiting overall updraft strength and tempering the severe potential. Even so, moderate northwesterly flow aloft will support long hodographs and the potential for some storm organization if updrafts can become sufficiently deep. An instance or two of hail is possible with any stronger, more long-lived storms. ..Mosier/Moore.. 08/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Mon Aug 25 2025 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe wind gusts are possible over parts of south-central Arizona this afternoon through early evening. Otherwise, the potential for severe storms is low across the remainder of the continental U.S. ...Synopsis... A large upper trough will remain over the eastern CONUS today, as several embedded shortwave troughs progress within its southern periphery. Extensive upper ridging that currently extends from the southern Plains into the northern Intermountain West is forecast to remain largely in place. Some dampening may occur along the northwestern periphery of this ridging as a slow-moving vorticity maximum continues northeastward from the CO/OR/NV border vicinity into more of eastern OR. Ample monsoonal moisture exists beneath this ridging, contributing to scattered to numerous thunderstorms from the southern/central Rockies westward across the Southwest and much of the Great Basin. Limited vertical shear and weak buoyancy will mitigate the severe potential across the majority of the region. The only exceptions are across central Rockies and immediate foothills, and portions of southern AZ. ...Southern AZ... Ample monsoonal moisture is in place across the region, evidenced by PW values of 1.66 and 1.83 inches from the Phoenix and Yuma 12Z soundings, respectively. Filtered diurnal heating within this moist airmass will support modest buoyancy and afternoon thunderstorm development. A belt of stronger mid-level southeasterly flow (20-25 kt) is forecast to overspread the region this afternoon, providing ample shear for some multicell storm clusters. Initial storms which are expected to form across the higher terrain in southeast Arizona may result in congealing outflow with a damaging wind threat as storms move generally west-northwestward through the evening. ...Central Rockies... Thunderstorm development is expected across the high terrain by the early afternoon. Poor lapse rates and cooler temperatures will keep buoyancy will be modest, likely limiting overall updraft strength and tempering the severe potential. Even so, moderate northwesterly flow aloft will support long hodographs and the potential for some storm organization if updrafts can become sufficiently deep. An instance or two of hail is possible with any stronger, more long-lived storms. ..Mosier/Moore.. 08/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Mon Aug 25 2025 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe wind gusts are possible over parts of south-central Arizona this afternoon through early evening. Otherwise, the potential for severe storms is low across the remainder of the continental U.S. ...Synopsis... A large upper trough will remain over the eastern CONUS today, as several embedded shortwave troughs progress within its southern periphery. Extensive upper ridging that currently extends from the southern Plains into the northern Intermountain West is forecast to remain largely in place. Some dampening may occur along the northwestern periphery of this ridging as a slow-moving vorticity maximum continues northeastward from the CO/OR/NV border vicinity into more of eastern OR. Ample monsoonal moisture exists beneath this ridging, contributing to scattered to numerous thunderstorms from the southern/central Rockies westward across the Southwest and much of the Great Basin. Limited vertical shear and weak buoyancy will mitigate the severe potential across the majority of the region. The only exceptions are across central Rockies and immediate foothills, and portions of southern AZ. ...Southern AZ... Ample monsoonal moisture is in place across the region, evidenced by PW values of 1.66 and 1.83 inches from the Phoenix and Yuma 12Z soundings, respectively. Filtered diurnal heating within this moist airmass will support modest buoyancy and afternoon thunderstorm development. A belt of stronger mid-level southeasterly flow (20-25 kt) is forecast to overspread the region this afternoon, providing ample shear for some multicell storm clusters. Initial storms which are expected to form across the higher terrain in southeast Arizona may result in congealing outflow with a damaging wind threat as storms move generally west-northwestward through the evening. ...Central Rockies... Thunderstorm development is expected across the high terrain by the early afternoon. Poor lapse rates and cooler temperatures will keep buoyancy will be modest, likely limiting overall updraft strength and tempering the severe potential. Even so, moderate northwesterly flow aloft will support long hodographs and the potential for some storm organization if updrafts can become sufficiently deep. An instance or two of hail is possible with any stronger, more long-lived storms. ..Mosier/Moore.. 08/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Mon Aug 25 2025 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe wind gusts are possible over parts of south-central Arizona this afternoon through early evening. Otherwise, the potential for severe storms is low across the remainder of the continental U.S. ...Synopsis... A large upper trough will remain over the eastern CONUS today, as several embedded shortwave troughs progress within its southern periphery. Extensive upper ridging that currently extends from the southern Plains into the northern Intermountain West is forecast to remain largely in place. Some dampening may occur along the northwestern periphery of this ridging as a slow-moving vorticity maximum continues northeastward from the CO/OR/NV border vicinity into more of eastern OR. Ample monsoonal moisture exists beneath this ridging, contributing to scattered to numerous thunderstorms from the southern/central Rockies westward across the Southwest and much of the Great Basin. Limited vertical shear and weak buoyancy will mitigate the severe potential across the majority of the region. The only exceptions are across central Rockies and immediate foothills, and portions of southern AZ. ...Southern AZ... Ample monsoonal moisture is in place across the region, evidenced by PW values of 1.66 and 1.83 inches from the Phoenix and Yuma 12Z soundings, respectively. Filtered diurnal heating within this moist airmass will support modest buoyancy and afternoon thunderstorm development. A belt of stronger mid-level southeasterly flow (20-25 kt) is forecast to overspread the region this afternoon, providing ample shear for some multicell storm clusters. Initial storms which are expected to form across the higher terrain in southeast Arizona may result in congealing outflow with a damaging wind threat as storms move generally west-northwestward through the evening. ...Central Rockies... Thunderstorm development is expected across the high terrain by the early afternoon. Poor lapse rates and cooler temperatures will keep buoyancy will be modest, likely limiting overall updraft strength and tempering the severe potential. Even so, moderate northwesterly flow aloft will support long hodographs and the potential for some storm organization if updrafts can become sufficiently deep. An instance or two of hail is possible with any stronger, more long-lived storms. ..Mosier/Moore.. 08/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Mon Aug 25 2025 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe wind gusts are possible over parts of south-central Arizona this afternoon through early evening. Otherwise, the potential for severe storms is low across the remainder of the continental U.S. ...Synopsis... A large upper trough will remain over the eastern CONUS today, as several embedded shortwave troughs progress within its southern periphery. Extensive upper ridging that currently extends from the southern Plains into the northern Intermountain West is forecast to remain largely in place. Some dampening may occur along the northwestern periphery of this ridging as a slow-moving vorticity maximum continues northeastward from the CO/OR/NV border vicinity into more of eastern OR. Ample monsoonal moisture exists beneath this ridging, contributing to scattered to numerous thunderstorms from the southern/central Rockies westward across the Southwest and much of the Great Basin. Limited vertical shear and weak buoyancy will mitigate the severe potential across the majority of the region. The only exceptions are across central Rockies and immediate foothills, and portions of southern AZ. ...Southern AZ... Ample monsoonal moisture is in place across the region, evidenced by PW values of 1.66 and 1.83 inches from the Phoenix and Yuma 12Z soundings, respectively. Filtered diurnal heating within this moist airmass will support modest buoyancy and afternoon thunderstorm development. A belt of stronger mid-level southeasterly flow (20-25 kt) is forecast to overspread the region this afternoon, providing ample shear for some multicell storm clusters. Initial storms which are expected to form across the higher terrain in southeast Arizona may result in congealing outflow with a damaging wind threat as storms move generally west-northwestward through the evening. ...Central Rockies... Thunderstorm development is expected across the high terrain by the early afternoon. Poor lapse rates and cooler temperatures will keep buoyancy will be modest, likely limiting overall updraft strength and tempering the severe potential. Even so, moderate northwesterly flow aloft will support long hodographs and the potential for some storm organization if updrafts can become sufficiently deep. An instance or two of hail is possible with any stronger, more long-lived storms. ..Mosier/Moore.. 08/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Mon Aug 25 2025 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe wind gusts are possible over parts of south-central Arizona this afternoon through early evening. Otherwise, the potential for severe storms is low across the remainder of the continental U.S. ...Synopsis... A large upper trough will remain over the eastern CONUS today, as several embedded shortwave troughs progress within its southern periphery. Extensive upper ridging that currently extends from the southern Plains into the northern Intermountain West is forecast to remain largely in place. Some dampening may occur along the northwestern periphery of this ridging as a slow-moving vorticity maximum continues northeastward from the CO/OR/NV border vicinity into more of eastern OR. Ample monsoonal moisture exists beneath this ridging, contributing to scattered to numerous thunderstorms from the southern/central Rockies westward across the Southwest and much of the Great Basin. Limited vertical shear and weak buoyancy will mitigate the severe potential across the majority of the region. The only exceptions are across central Rockies and immediate foothills, and portions of southern AZ. ...Southern AZ... Ample monsoonal moisture is in place across the region, evidenced by PW values of 1.66 and 1.83 inches from the Phoenix and Yuma 12Z soundings, respectively. Filtered diurnal heating within this moist airmass will support modest buoyancy and afternoon thunderstorm development. A belt of stronger mid-level southeasterly flow (20-25 kt) is forecast to overspread the region this afternoon, providing ample shear for some multicell storm clusters. Initial storms which are expected to form across the higher terrain in southeast Arizona may result in congealing outflow with a damaging wind threat as storms move generally west-northwestward through the evening. ...Central Rockies... Thunderstorm development is expected across the high terrain by the early afternoon. Poor lapse rates and cooler temperatures will keep buoyancy will be modest, likely limiting overall updraft strength and tempering the severe potential. Even so, moderate northwesterly flow aloft will support long hodographs and the potential for some storm organization if updrafts can become sufficiently deep. An instance or two of hail is possible with any stronger, more long-lived storms. ..Mosier/Moore.. 08/25/2025 Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 25 Aug 2025 14:39:35 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 25 Aug 2025 15:27:50 GMT

Issued at 1500 UTC MON AUG 25 2025 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 251503 CCA TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102025 1500 UTC MON AUG 25 2025 CORRECTED FOR MISSING 50-KT RADII AT 24 HOURS TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 113.1W AT 25/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 4 M SEAS.... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 113.1W AT 25/1500Z AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 112.6W FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 17.9N 114.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 18.8N 116.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 20.1N 118.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 21.6N 119.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 23.0N 120.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 24.2N 121.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 26.0N 121.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 26.2N 122.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N 113.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 25 Aug 2025 14:39:35 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 25 Aug 2025 14:39:35 GMT

Issued at 800 AM MST Mon Aug 25 2025 003 WTPZ45 KNHC 251438 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Juliette Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102025 800 AM MST Mon Aug 25 2025 Deep convection, with a fair amount of lightning, continues to burst over Juliette's center. There still appears to be some shear affecting the cyclone, although various diagnostics from UW-CIMSS and SHIPS suggest it has decreased to about 10 kt. Objective satellite intensity estimates are gradually increasing, and the maximum winds are estimated to now be 40 kt. With the shear now lower, steady intensification is anticipated during the next 36 hours or so while Juliette remains over waters warmer than 26 degrees Celsius. The NHC intensity forecast is at the top end of the guidance during this period. Weakening is forecast after 36 hours due to cooler waters and a drier, more stable atmosphere. The NHC forecast calls for Juliette to become post-tropical by Friday, although it could happen as early as Thursday. Juliette continues west-northwestward (290 degrees) at 11 kt. Due to a break in the subtropical ridge which has developed near and to the west of the Baja California peninsula, Juliette is expected to gradually turn toward the northwest on Tuesday, and then the north-northwest and north by Thursday and Friday. There is a typical amount of spread among the track guidance, and the NHC forecast takes a blend of the HCCA, Florida State Superensemble, Google Deep Mind, and TVCE consensus aids. This updated forecast is not too different from the previous prediction. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/1500Z 17.1N 113.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 26/0000Z 17.9N 114.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 26/1200Z 18.8N 116.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 27/0000Z 20.1N 118.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 27/1200Z 21.6N 119.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 28/0000Z 23.0N 120.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 28/1200Z 24.2N 121.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 29/1200Z 26.0N 121.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 30/1200Z 26.2N 122.3W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Berg

Issued at 1500 UTC MON AUG 25 2025 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 251437 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102025 1500 UTC MON AUG 25 2025 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 80 9(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) ISLA CLARION 50 9 8(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) ISLA CLARION 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 20N 115W 34 5 17(22) 1(23) 1(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) 20N 120W 34 X 2( 2) 17(19) 10(29) 1(30) X(30) X(30) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 11(16) 2(18) X(18) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) $$ FORECASTER BERG

Issued at 800 AM MST Mon Aug 25 2025 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 251437 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Juliette Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102025 800 AM MST Mon Aug 25 2025 ...JULIETTE A LITTLE STRONGER... SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.1N 113.1W ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM SW OF SOCORRO ISLAND ABOUT 450 MI...725 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM MST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Juliette was located near latitude 17.1 North, longitude 113.1 West. Juliette is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through early Tuesday. A turn toward the northwest is forecast later on Tuesday, followed by a slower motion toward the north-northwest by early Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next day or two, with weakening beginning on Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. A wind gust to 44 mph (71 km/h) was recently reported by an automated Mexican navy station on Clarion Island. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Berg

...JULIETTE A LITTLE STRONGER... As of 8:00 AM MST Mon Aug 25 the center of Juliette was located near 17.1, -113.1 with movement WNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC MON AUG 25 2025 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 251437 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102025 1500 UTC MON AUG 25 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 113.1W AT 25/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 4 M SEAS.... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 113.1W AT 25/1500Z AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 112.6W FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 17.9N 114.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 18.8N 116.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 20.1N 118.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 21.6N 119.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 23.0N 120.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 24.2N 121.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 26.0N 121.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 26.2N 122.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N 113.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

Drought slowed crop growth in the Niagara area, but the drought conditions have grape growers enthusiastic about the concentrated flavors and sugars. Batavia Daily News (N.Y.), Aug 25, 2025

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0738 AM CDT Mon Aug 25 2025 Valid 251300Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe wind gusts are possible over parts of south-central Arizona this afternoon through early evening. Otherwise, the potential for severe storms is low across the remainder of the continental U.S. ..Synopsis... A large upper-level trough will continue to amplify across the eastern CONUS today. High pressure, currently analyzed across the northern Plains early this morning will expand slowly southward through the day which will push the polar front off the Atlantic coast and perhaps into the Gulf. A persistent upper-level ridge will exist across the Southwest and into the Great Basin/Rocky Mountains. Beneath this ridge, a continued monsoon push will result in widespread thunderstorm activity this afternoon/evening. ...Southern Arizona... Thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon/evening across much of the Southwest amid weak to moderate instability (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE) as temperatures cool aloft. A belt of stronger mid-level southeasterly flow (20-25 kt) is forecast to overspread the region and provide ample shear for some multicell storm clusters. Initial storms which are expected to form across the higher terrain in southeast Arizona may result in congealing outflow with a damaging wind threat as storms move generally west-northwestward through the evening. ..Guyer/Kerr.. 08/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0738 AM CDT Mon Aug 25 2025 Valid 251300Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe wind gusts are possible over parts of south-central Arizona this afternoon through early evening. Otherwise, the potential for severe storms is low across the remainder of the continental U.S. ..Synopsis... A large upper-level trough will continue to amplify across the eastern CONUS today. High pressure, currently analyzed across the northern Plains early this morning will expand slowly southward through the day which will push the polar front off the Atlantic coast and perhaps into the Gulf. A persistent upper-level ridge will exist across the Southwest and into the Great Basin/Rocky Mountains. Beneath this ridge, a continued monsoon push will result in widespread thunderstorm activity this afternoon/evening. ...Southern Arizona... Thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon/evening across much of the Southwest amid weak to moderate instability (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE) as temperatures cool aloft. A belt of stronger mid-level southeasterly flow (20-25 kt) is forecast to overspread the region and provide ample shear for some multicell storm clusters. Initial storms which are expected to form across the higher terrain in southeast Arizona may result in congealing outflow with a damaging wind threat as storms move generally west-northwestward through the evening. ..Guyer/Kerr.. 08/25/2025 Read more