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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected across the continental U.S. on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... High pressure will stabilize much of the central and eastern CONUS on Tuesday as a large-scale upper trough persists from the MS Valley to the East Coast. At the surface, a cold front will be located from northern FL across the northern Gulf and into south-central TX early in the day, and will continue to push south, along with the higher dewpoints and instability. Scattered thunderstorms will be possible over FL and parts of southern TX, but severe storms are unlikely given weak shear and poor lapse rates aloft. Otherwise, scattered daytime storms are likely over much of the Intermountain West, where midlevel moisture will remain plentiful, and only a weak upper ridge over the Rockies remaining. ..Jewell.. 08/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected across the continental U.S. on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... High pressure will stabilize much of the central and eastern CONUS on Tuesday as a large-scale upper trough persists from the MS Valley to the East Coast. At the surface, a cold front will be located from northern FL across the northern Gulf and into south-central TX early in the day, and will continue to push south, along with the higher dewpoints and instability. Scattered thunderstorms will be possible over FL and parts of southern TX, but severe storms are unlikely given weak shear and poor lapse rates aloft. Otherwise, scattered daytime storms are likely over much of the Intermountain West, where midlevel moisture will remain plentiful, and only a weak upper ridge over the Rockies remaining. ..Jewell.. 08/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected across the continental U.S. on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... High pressure will stabilize much of the central and eastern CONUS on Tuesday as a large-scale upper trough persists from the MS Valley to the East Coast. At the surface, a cold front will be located from northern FL across the northern Gulf and into south-central TX early in the day, and will continue to push south, along with the higher dewpoints and instability. Scattered thunderstorms will be possible over FL and parts of southern TX, but severe storms are unlikely given weak shear and poor lapse rates aloft. Otherwise, scattered daytime storms are likely over much of the Intermountain West, where midlevel moisture will remain plentiful, and only a weak upper ridge over the Rockies remaining. ..Jewell.. 08/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected across the continental U.S. on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... High pressure will stabilize much of the central and eastern CONUS on Tuesday as a large-scale upper trough persists from the MS Valley to the East Coast. At the surface, a cold front will be located from northern FL across the northern Gulf and into south-central TX early in the day, and will continue to push south, along with the higher dewpoints and instability. Scattered thunderstorms will be possible over FL and parts of southern TX, but severe storms are unlikely given weak shear and poor lapse rates aloft. Otherwise, scattered daytime storms are likely over much of the Intermountain West, where midlevel moisture will remain plentiful, and only a weak upper ridge over the Rockies remaining. ..Jewell.. 08/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected across the continental U.S. on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... High pressure will stabilize much of the central and eastern CONUS on Tuesday as a large-scale upper trough persists from the MS Valley to the East Coast. At the surface, a cold front will be located from northern FL across the northern Gulf and into south-central TX early in the day, and will continue to push south, along with the higher dewpoints and instability. Scattered thunderstorms will be possible over FL and parts of southern TX, but severe storms are unlikely given weak shear and poor lapse rates aloft. Otherwise, scattered daytime storms are likely over much of the Intermountain West, where midlevel moisture will remain plentiful, and only a weak upper ridge over the Rockies remaining. ..Jewell.. 08/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected across the continental U.S. on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... High pressure will stabilize much of the central and eastern CONUS on Tuesday as a large-scale upper trough persists from the MS Valley to the East Coast. At the surface, a cold front will be located from northern FL across the northern Gulf and into south-central TX early in the day, and will continue to push south, along with the higher dewpoints and instability. Scattered thunderstorms will be possible over FL and parts of southern TX, but severe storms are unlikely given weak shear and poor lapse rates aloft. Otherwise, scattered daytime storms are likely over much of the Intermountain West, where midlevel moisture will remain plentiful, and only a weak upper ridge over the Rockies remaining. ..Jewell.. 08/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected across the continental U.S. on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... High pressure will stabilize much of the central and eastern CONUS on Tuesday as a large-scale upper trough persists from the MS Valley to the East Coast. At the surface, a cold front will be located from northern FL across the northern Gulf and into south-central TX early in the day, and will continue to push south, along with the higher dewpoints and instability. Scattered thunderstorms will be possible over FL and parts of southern TX, but severe storms are unlikely given weak shear and poor lapse rates aloft. Otherwise, scattered daytime storms are likely over much of the Intermountain West, where midlevel moisture will remain plentiful, and only a weak upper ridge over the Rockies remaining. ..Jewell.. 08/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected across the continental U.S. on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... High pressure will stabilize much of the central and eastern CONUS on Tuesday as a large-scale upper trough persists from the MS Valley to the East Coast. At the surface, a cold front will be located from northern FL across the northern Gulf and into south-central TX early in the day, and will continue to push south, along with the higher dewpoints and instability. Scattered thunderstorms will be possible over FL and parts of southern TX, but severe storms are unlikely given weak shear and poor lapse rates aloft. Otherwise, scattered daytime storms are likely over much of the Intermountain West, where midlevel moisture will remain plentiful, and only a weak upper ridge over the Rockies remaining. ..Jewell.. 08/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected across the continental U.S. on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... High pressure will stabilize much of the central and eastern CONUS on Tuesday as a large-scale upper trough persists from the MS Valley to the East Coast. At the surface, a cold front will be located from northern FL across the northern Gulf and into south-central TX early in the day, and will continue to push south, along with the higher dewpoints and instability. Scattered thunderstorms will be possible over FL and parts of southern TX, but severe storms are unlikely given weak shear and poor lapse rates aloft. Otherwise, scattered daytime storms are likely over much of the Intermountain West, where midlevel moisture will remain plentiful, and only a weak upper ridge over the Rockies remaining. ..Jewell.. 08/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected across the continental U.S. on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... High pressure will stabilize much of the central and eastern CONUS on Tuesday as a large-scale upper trough persists from the MS Valley to the East Coast. At the surface, a cold front will be located from northern FL across the northern Gulf and into south-central TX early in the day, and will continue to push south, along with the higher dewpoints and instability. Scattered thunderstorms will be possible over FL and parts of southern TX, but severe storms are unlikely given weak shear and poor lapse rates aloft. Otherwise, scattered daytime storms are likely over much of the Intermountain West, where midlevel moisture will remain plentiful, and only a weak upper ridge over the Rockies remaining. ..Jewell.. 08/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected across the continental U.S. on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... High pressure will stabilize much of the central and eastern CONUS on Tuesday as a large-scale upper trough persists from the MS Valley to the East Coast. At the surface, a cold front will be located from northern FL across the northern Gulf and into south-central TX early in the day, and will continue to push south, along with the higher dewpoints and instability. Scattered thunderstorms will be possible over FL and parts of southern TX, but severe storms are unlikely given weak shear and poor lapse rates aloft. Otherwise, scattered daytime storms are likely over much of the Intermountain West, where midlevel moisture will remain plentiful, and only a weak upper ridge over the Rockies remaining. ..Jewell.. 08/24/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z An IsoDryT area was introduced for the Cascades from northern Oregon through Washington. The preceding hot/dry conditions helped cure the fuels quickly after last week's rainfall leading to above normal to daily record setting ERC values for portions of the IsoDryT area. PWAT values less than 0.9" and continued high-cloud bases with dry sub-cloud layers also help support this decision. A mix of wet/dry storms are likely given the slow storm motions and slightly elevated PWAT values, and there is some uncertainty regarding storm development and coverage in the Washington Cascades. Central Idaho into southwest Montana and northwest Wyoming was also considered as there will likely be isolated to scattered mixed wet/dry thunderstorms tomorrow. However, deeper monsoonal moisture with widespread wetting rain is expected across these areas in the following days that would help limit the ignition/spread potential. Additionally, portions of northwest California may see a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms even amid PWAT values of 1"+ and slow storm motions. ..Nauslar.. 08/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025/ ...Synopsis... Along the western periphery of an amplified large-scale ridge extending from the Southwest/southern Rockies to the Northwest, several midlevel disturbances will advance northward across parts of the Great Basin/Sierra into the Northwest. Given well-established monsoonal moisture across the region, scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected. While a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms are possible (especially over parts of the Sierra into the Northwest), generally 1.0+ inch PW and slow storm motions should favor mostly wet storms capable of producing measurable rainfall. Nevertheless, isolated lightning-induced ignitions will still be possible on the peripheries of rain cores where fuels are receptive. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z An IsoDryT area was introduced for the Cascades from northern Oregon through Washington. The preceding hot/dry conditions helped cure the fuels quickly after last week's rainfall leading to above normal to daily record setting ERC values for portions of the IsoDryT area. PWAT values less than 0.9" and continued high-cloud bases with dry sub-cloud layers also help support this decision. A mix of wet/dry storms are likely given the slow storm motions and slightly elevated PWAT values, and there is some uncertainty regarding storm development and coverage in the Washington Cascades. Central Idaho into southwest Montana and northwest Wyoming was also considered as there will likely be isolated to scattered mixed wet/dry thunderstorms tomorrow. However, deeper monsoonal moisture with widespread wetting rain is expected across these areas in the following days that would help limit the ignition/spread potential. Additionally, portions of northwest California may see a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms even amid PWAT values of 1"+ and slow storm motions. ..Nauslar.. 08/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025/ ...Synopsis... Along the western periphery of an amplified large-scale ridge extending from the Southwest/southern Rockies to the Northwest, several midlevel disturbances will advance northward across parts of the Great Basin/Sierra into the Northwest. Given well-established monsoonal moisture across the region, scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected. While a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms are possible (especially over parts of the Sierra into the Northwest), generally 1.0+ inch PW and slow storm motions should favor mostly wet storms capable of producing measurable rainfall. Nevertheless, isolated lightning-induced ignitions will still be possible on the peripheries of rain cores where fuels are receptive. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z An IsoDryT area was introduced for the Cascades from northern Oregon through Washington. The preceding hot/dry conditions helped cure the fuels quickly after last week's rainfall leading to above normal to daily record setting ERC values for portions of the IsoDryT area. PWAT values less than 0.9" and continued high-cloud bases with dry sub-cloud layers also help support this decision. A mix of wet/dry storms are likely given the slow storm motions and slightly elevated PWAT values, and there is some uncertainty regarding storm development and coverage in the Washington Cascades. Central Idaho into southwest Montana and northwest Wyoming was also considered as there will likely be isolated to scattered mixed wet/dry thunderstorms tomorrow. However, deeper monsoonal moisture with widespread wetting rain is expected across these areas in the following days that would help limit the ignition/spread potential. Additionally, portions of northwest California may see a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms even amid PWAT values of 1"+ and slow storm motions. ..Nauslar.. 08/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025/ ...Synopsis... Along the western periphery of an amplified large-scale ridge extending from the Southwest/southern Rockies to the Northwest, several midlevel disturbances will advance northward across parts of the Great Basin/Sierra into the Northwest. Given well-established monsoonal moisture across the region, scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected. While a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms are possible (especially over parts of the Sierra into the Northwest), generally 1.0+ inch PW and slow storm motions should favor mostly wet storms capable of producing measurable rainfall. Nevertheless, isolated lightning-induced ignitions will still be possible on the peripheries of rain cores where fuels are receptive. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z An IsoDryT area was introduced for the Cascades from northern Oregon through Washington. The preceding hot/dry conditions helped cure the fuels quickly after last week's rainfall leading to above normal to daily record setting ERC values for portions of the IsoDryT area. PWAT values less than 0.9" and continued high-cloud bases with dry sub-cloud layers also help support this decision. A mix of wet/dry storms are likely given the slow storm motions and slightly elevated PWAT values, and there is some uncertainty regarding storm development and coverage in the Washington Cascades. Central Idaho into southwest Montana and northwest Wyoming was also considered as there will likely be isolated to scattered mixed wet/dry thunderstorms tomorrow. However, deeper monsoonal moisture with widespread wetting rain is expected across these areas in the following days that would help limit the ignition/spread potential. Additionally, portions of northwest California may see a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms even amid PWAT values of 1"+ and slow storm motions. ..Nauslar.. 08/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025/ ...Synopsis... Along the western periphery of an amplified large-scale ridge extending from the Southwest/southern Rockies to the Northwest, several midlevel disturbances will advance northward across parts of the Great Basin/Sierra into the Northwest. Given well-established monsoonal moisture across the region, scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected. While a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms are possible (especially over parts of the Sierra into the Northwest), generally 1.0+ inch PW and slow storm motions should favor mostly wet storms capable of producing measurable rainfall. Nevertheless, isolated lightning-induced ignitions will still be possible on the peripheries of rain cores where fuels are receptive. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z An IsoDryT area was introduced for the Cascades from northern Oregon through Washington. The preceding hot/dry conditions helped cure the fuels quickly after last week's rainfall leading to above normal to daily record setting ERC values for portions of the IsoDryT area. PWAT values less than 0.9" and continued high-cloud bases with dry sub-cloud layers also help support this decision. A mix of wet/dry storms are likely given the slow storm motions and slightly elevated PWAT values, and there is some uncertainty regarding storm development and coverage in the Washington Cascades. Central Idaho into southwest Montana and northwest Wyoming was also considered as there will likely be isolated to scattered mixed wet/dry thunderstorms tomorrow. However, deeper monsoonal moisture with widespread wetting rain is expected across these areas in the following days that would help limit the ignition/spread potential. Additionally, portions of northwest California may see a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms even amid PWAT values of 1"+ and slow storm motions. ..Nauslar.. 08/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025/ ...Synopsis... Along the western periphery of an amplified large-scale ridge extending from the Southwest/southern Rockies to the Northwest, several midlevel disturbances will advance northward across parts of the Great Basin/Sierra into the Northwest. Given well-established monsoonal moisture across the region, scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected. While a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms are possible (especially over parts of the Sierra into the Northwest), generally 1.0+ inch PW and slow storm motions should favor mostly wet storms capable of producing measurable rainfall. Nevertheless, isolated lightning-induced ignitions will still be possible on the peripheries of rain cores where fuels are receptive. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z An IsoDryT area was introduced for the Cascades from northern Oregon through Washington. The preceding hot/dry conditions helped cure the fuels quickly after last week's rainfall leading to above normal to daily record setting ERC values for portions of the IsoDryT area. PWAT values less than 0.9" and continued high-cloud bases with dry sub-cloud layers also help support this decision. A mix of wet/dry storms are likely given the slow storm motions and slightly elevated PWAT values, and there is some uncertainty regarding storm development and coverage in the Washington Cascades. Central Idaho into southwest Montana and northwest Wyoming was also considered as there will likely be isolated to scattered mixed wet/dry thunderstorms tomorrow. However, deeper monsoonal moisture with widespread wetting rain is expected across these areas in the following days that would help limit the ignition/spread potential. Additionally, portions of northwest California may see a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms even amid PWAT values of 1"+ and slow storm motions. ..Nauslar.. 08/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025/ ...Synopsis... Along the western periphery of an amplified large-scale ridge extending from the Southwest/southern Rockies to the Northwest, several midlevel disturbances will advance northward across parts of the Great Basin/Sierra into the Northwest. Given well-established monsoonal moisture across the region, scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected. While a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms are possible (especially over parts of the Sierra into the Northwest), generally 1.0+ inch PW and slow storm motions should favor mostly wet storms capable of producing measurable rainfall. Nevertheless, isolated lightning-induced ignitions will still be possible on the peripheries of rain cores where fuels are receptive. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z An IsoDryT area was introduced for the Cascades from northern Oregon through Washington. The preceding hot/dry conditions helped cure the fuels quickly after last week's rainfall leading to above normal to daily record setting ERC values for portions of the IsoDryT area. PWAT values less than 0.9" and continued high-cloud bases with dry sub-cloud layers also help support this decision. A mix of wet/dry storms are likely given the slow storm motions and slightly elevated PWAT values, and there is some uncertainty regarding storm development and coverage in the Washington Cascades. Central Idaho into southwest Montana and northwest Wyoming was also considered as there will likely be isolated to scattered mixed wet/dry thunderstorms tomorrow. However, deeper monsoonal moisture with widespread wetting rain is expected across these areas in the following days that would help limit the ignition/spread potential. Additionally, portions of northwest California may see a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms even amid PWAT values of 1"+ and slow storm motions. ..Nauslar.. 08/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025/ ...Synopsis... Along the western periphery of an amplified large-scale ridge extending from the Southwest/southern Rockies to the Northwest, several midlevel disturbances will advance northward across parts of the Great Basin/Sierra into the Northwest. Given well-established monsoonal moisture across the region, scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected. While a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms are possible (especially over parts of the Sierra into the Northwest), generally 1.0+ inch PW and slow storm motions should favor mostly wet storms capable of producing measurable rainfall. Nevertheless, isolated lightning-induced ignitions will still be possible on the peripheries of rain cores where fuels are receptive. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z An IsoDryT area was introduced for the Cascades from northern Oregon through Washington. The preceding hot/dry conditions helped cure the fuels quickly after last week's rainfall leading to above normal to daily record setting ERC values for portions of the IsoDryT area. PWAT values less than 0.9" and continued high-cloud bases with dry sub-cloud layers also help support this decision. A mix of wet/dry storms are likely given the slow storm motions and slightly elevated PWAT values, and there is some uncertainty regarding storm development and coverage in the Washington Cascades. Central Idaho into southwest Montana and northwest Wyoming was also considered as there will likely be isolated to scattered mixed wet/dry thunderstorms tomorrow. However, deeper monsoonal moisture with widespread wetting rain is expected across these areas in the following days that would help limit the ignition/spread potential. Additionally, portions of northwest California may see a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms even amid PWAT values of 1"+ and slow storm motions. ..Nauslar.. 08/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025/ ...Synopsis... Along the western periphery of an amplified large-scale ridge extending from the Southwest/southern Rockies to the Northwest, several midlevel disturbances will advance northward across parts of the Great Basin/Sierra into the Northwest. Given well-established monsoonal moisture across the region, scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected. While a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms are possible (especially over parts of the Sierra into the Northwest), generally 1.0+ inch PW and slow storm motions should favor mostly wet storms capable of producing measurable rainfall. Nevertheless, isolated lightning-induced ignitions will still be possible on the peripheries of rain cores where fuels are receptive. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z An IsoDryT area was introduced for the Cascades from northern Oregon through Washington. The preceding hot/dry conditions helped cure the fuels quickly after last week's rainfall leading to above normal to daily record setting ERC values for portions of the IsoDryT area. PWAT values less than 0.9" and continued high-cloud bases with dry sub-cloud layers also help support this decision. A mix of wet/dry storms are likely given the slow storm motions and slightly elevated PWAT values, and there is some uncertainty regarding storm development and coverage in the Washington Cascades. Central Idaho into southwest Montana and northwest Wyoming was also considered as there will likely be isolated to scattered mixed wet/dry thunderstorms tomorrow. However, deeper monsoonal moisture with widespread wetting rain is expected across these areas in the following days that would help limit the ignition/spread potential. Additionally, portions of northwest California may see a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms even amid PWAT values of 1"+ and slow storm motions. ..Nauslar.. 08/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025/ ...Synopsis... Along the western periphery of an amplified large-scale ridge extending from the Southwest/southern Rockies to the Northwest, several midlevel disturbances will advance northward across parts of the Great Basin/Sierra into the Northwest. Given well-established monsoonal moisture across the region, scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected. While a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms are possible (especially over parts of the Sierra into the Northwest), generally 1.0+ inch PW and slow storm motions should favor mostly wet storms capable of producing measurable rainfall. Nevertheless, isolated lightning-induced ignitions will still be possible on the peripheries of rain cores where fuels are receptive. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more