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WW 0602 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0602 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0602 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0602 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 24 Aug 2025 20:37:30 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 24 Aug 2025 20:37:30 GMT

Issued at 200 PM MST Sun Aug 24 2025 995 WTPZ45 KNHC 242033 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102025 200 PM MST Sun Aug 24 2025 Data from both the ASCAT-B and ASCAT-C scatterometers indicate that the broad area of low pressure located well offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico now has a well-defined circulation. The deep convection has been forming a rudimentary banding structure over the western semicircle of the circulation. Thus, the system is being designated as Tropical Depression Ten-E at this time. The scatterometer observations indicate that the system is just below tropical storm strength, and the intensity estimate is in good agreement with a Dvorak estimate from TAFB. The initial motion estimate is west-northwestward, or 290/12 kt. A mid-level ridge is expected to remain to the northeast of the tropical cyclone during the next few days. This steering pattern should cause a west-northwestward to northwestward track for most of the forecast period. In 4-5 days, the weakening cyclone is expected turn more westward in the low-level flow. The official track forecast lies between the NOAA corrected consensus, HCCA, model and the Google Deep Mind, GDMI, predictions. The cyclone is currently over warm waters within moderate northeasterly vertical wind shear. Although the shear is predicted to lessen over the next couple of days, gradually cooling ocean waters should partially offset the more conducive wind environment. Therefore, only modest strengthening is forecast, and the NHC prediction is roughly in the middle of the model guidance. Around the end of the forecast period, significantly lower SSTs are likely to reduce the system to a remnant low. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/2100Z 16.0N 109.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 25/0600Z 16.7N 111.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 25/1800Z 17.7N 113.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 26/0600Z 18.7N 115.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 26/1800Z 19.7N 117.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 27/0600Z 21.0N 118.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 27/1800Z 22.4N 120.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 28/1800Z 24.5N 121.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 29/1800Z 25.0N 122.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Pasch

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 24 2025 872 FOPZ15 KNHC 242033 PWSEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102025 2100 UTC SUN AUG 24 2025 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA SOCORRO 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA CLARION 34 X 11(11) 47(58) 2(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) ISLA CLARION 50 X 1( 1) 13(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 115W 34 X 2( 2) 18(20) 5(25) 1(26) X(26) X(26) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 9(14) 1(15) X(15) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 6(12) 2(14) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) $$ FORECASTER PASCH

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 24 2025 682 WTPZ25 KNHC 242032 TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102025 2100 UTC SUN AUG 24 2025 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 109.7W AT 24/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 109.7W AT 24/2100Z AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 109.3W FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 16.7N 111.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 17.7N 113.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 18.7N 115.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 19.7N 117.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 21.0N 118.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 22.4N 120.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 24.5N 121.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 25.0N 122.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 109.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

Issued at 200 PM MST Sun Aug 24 2025 683 WTPZ35 KNHC 242032 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Ten-E Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102025 200 PM MST Sun Aug 24 2025 ...NEW EAST PACIFIC TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS... SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.0N 109.7W ABOUT 475 MI...765 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ten-E was located near latitude 16.0 North, longitude 109.7 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the system will likely become a tropical storm tonight or on Monday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Pasch

...NEW EAST PACIFIC TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS... As of 2:00 PM MST Sun Aug 24 the center of Ten-E was located near 16.0, -109.7 with movement WNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN COLORADO INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS AND PORTIONS OF THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening across the southern/central High Plains spanning from eastern Colorado into western Oklahoma. Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are also possible across portions of Pennsylvania and New York. ...20z Update... An upgrade to Slight was made with this update in eastern Colorado/western Kansas. Thermodynamics and shear profiles are favorable for supercell development. Recent development on radar suggests attempts are ongoing across portions of eastern Colorado near the Palmer Divide and near Colorado Springs. Any more discrete supercells that can be maintained will pose a risk for large hail, and as such a 15% was added with this update. See MCD#2009 for more information. ..Thornton.. 08/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025/ ...Southern/Central High Plains... Elevated thunderstorms are ongoing late this morning across parts of western/southern KS in a northwesterly mid-level flow regime. This activity has generally remained sub-severe, but the stronger cores could be capable of producing occasional hail as they track southeastward this afternoon given the presence of sufficient MUCAPE and deep-layer shear. Modestly enhanced mid-level flow is expected to remain over parts of the central into southern Plains today, generally from eastern WY/CO into western KS/OK and vicinity, between a mid/upper-level anticyclone over the Southwest and mid/upper-level troughing across the Upper Midwest. A surface front extends from northern CO into western KS. This boundary, along with outflow from ongoing convection, may serve as foci for robust thunderstorm development later today. There is still a fair amount of uncertainty regarding convective development and evolution this afternoon/evening across the southern/central High Plains given weak forcing aloft. Modest low-level upslope flow and orographic effects should encourage at least isolated thunderstorms to initially develop over the higher terrain of the central Rockies/Front Range, and subsequently spread southeastward into the High Plains through the evening. The front/outflow boundary draped from northeast CO into southwest KS could also serve as a forcing mechanism to aid parcels in reaching their LFCs. The environment along/south of the front should become moderately unstable with continued daytime heating, with greater low-level moisture present across western KS into the OK/TX Panhandles and western OK. Modest low-level southeasterlies should persist through much of the afternoon/evening along and near the front, which should locally enhance 0-1 km SRH. It appears possible that a supercell or two could develop near the front later today and track south-southeastward in a favorable northwesterly mid-level flow regime. Isolated large hail would probably be the main threat if a supercell can be sustained, with perhaps a tornado also possible where low-level flow can remain backed to southeasterly near the front. Some guidance suggests a cluster or two may eventually emerge this evening across eastern CO and/or southwest KS, but this potential remains highly uncertain. Mesoscale trends will be monitored for a zone of more focused severe potential and possible outlook upgrade. ...New York/Pennsylvania... An amplified upper trough/low over Ontario and extending southward into the Great Lakes/Midwest is forecast to gradually shift eastward today. A related surface cold front will also advance east-southeastward through the period across parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic/OH Valley. Filtered daytime heating of a modestly moist low-level airmass ahead of the front will promote weak to locally moderate instability this afternoon, especially across parts of PA/NY. Current expectations are for thunderstorms to develop along/near the front through the afternoon across western PA/NY. While mid-level lapse rates are forecast to remain poor, which will likely limit updraft strength, sufficient deep-layer shear should be present to support some thunderstorm organization. Loosely organized clusters/cells may pose an isolated threat for damaging winds and perhaps marginally severe hail as they spread eastward across central PA and central/northern NY through early evening. This activity should weaken with eastward extent as it encounters a less unstable airmass. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN COLORADO INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS AND PORTIONS OF THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening across the southern/central High Plains spanning from eastern Colorado into western Oklahoma. Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are also possible across portions of Pennsylvania and New York. ...20z Update... An upgrade to Slight was made with this update in eastern Colorado/western Kansas. Thermodynamics and shear profiles are favorable for supercell development. Recent development on radar suggests attempts are ongoing across portions of eastern Colorado near the Palmer Divide and near Colorado Springs. Any more discrete supercells that can be maintained will pose a risk for large hail, and as such a 15% was added with this update. See MCD#2009 for more information. ..Thornton.. 08/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025/ ...Southern/Central High Plains... Elevated thunderstorms are ongoing late this morning across parts of western/southern KS in a northwesterly mid-level flow regime. This activity has generally remained sub-severe, but the stronger cores could be capable of producing occasional hail as they track southeastward this afternoon given the presence of sufficient MUCAPE and deep-layer shear. Modestly enhanced mid-level flow is expected to remain over parts of the central into southern Plains today, generally from eastern WY/CO into western KS/OK and vicinity, between a mid/upper-level anticyclone over the Southwest and mid/upper-level troughing across the Upper Midwest. A surface front extends from northern CO into western KS. This boundary, along with outflow from ongoing convection, may serve as foci for robust thunderstorm development later today. There is still a fair amount of uncertainty regarding convective development and evolution this afternoon/evening across the southern/central High Plains given weak forcing aloft. Modest low-level upslope flow and orographic effects should encourage at least isolated thunderstorms to initially develop over the higher terrain of the central Rockies/Front Range, and subsequently spread southeastward into the High Plains through the evening. The front/outflow boundary draped from northeast CO into southwest KS could also serve as a forcing mechanism to aid parcels in reaching their LFCs. The environment along/south of the front should become moderately unstable with continued daytime heating, with greater low-level moisture present across western KS into the OK/TX Panhandles and western OK. Modest low-level southeasterlies should persist through much of the afternoon/evening along and near the front, which should locally enhance 0-1 km SRH. It appears possible that a supercell or two could develop near the front later today and track south-southeastward in a favorable northwesterly mid-level flow regime. Isolated large hail would probably be the main threat if a supercell can be sustained, with perhaps a tornado also possible where low-level flow can remain backed to southeasterly near the front. Some guidance suggests a cluster or two may eventually emerge this evening across eastern CO and/or southwest KS, but this potential remains highly uncertain. Mesoscale trends will be monitored for a zone of more focused severe potential and possible outlook upgrade. ...New York/Pennsylvania... An amplified upper trough/low over Ontario and extending southward into the Great Lakes/Midwest is forecast to gradually shift eastward today. A related surface cold front will also advance east-southeastward through the period across parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic/OH Valley. Filtered daytime heating of a modestly moist low-level airmass ahead of the front will promote weak to locally moderate instability this afternoon, especially across parts of PA/NY. Current expectations are for thunderstorms to develop along/near the front through the afternoon across western PA/NY. While mid-level lapse rates are forecast to remain poor, which will likely limit updraft strength, sufficient deep-layer shear should be present to support some thunderstorm organization. Loosely organized clusters/cells may pose an isolated threat for damaging winds and perhaps marginally severe hail as they spread eastward across central PA and central/northern NY through early evening. This activity should weaken with eastward extent as it encounters a less unstable airmass. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN COLORADO INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS AND PORTIONS OF THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening across the southern/central High Plains spanning from eastern Colorado into western Oklahoma. Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are also possible across portions of Pennsylvania and New York. ...20z Update... An upgrade to Slight was made with this update in eastern Colorado/western Kansas. Thermodynamics and shear profiles are favorable for supercell development. Recent development on radar suggests attempts are ongoing across portions of eastern Colorado near the Palmer Divide and near Colorado Springs. Any more discrete supercells that can be maintained will pose a risk for large hail, and as such a 15% was added with this update. See MCD#2009 for more information. ..Thornton.. 08/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025/ ...Southern/Central High Plains... Elevated thunderstorms are ongoing late this morning across parts of western/southern KS in a northwesterly mid-level flow regime. This activity has generally remained sub-severe, but the stronger cores could be capable of producing occasional hail as they track southeastward this afternoon given the presence of sufficient MUCAPE and deep-layer shear. Modestly enhanced mid-level flow is expected to remain over parts of the central into southern Plains today, generally from eastern WY/CO into western KS/OK and vicinity, between a mid/upper-level anticyclone over the Southwest and mid/upper-level troughing across the Upper Midwest. A surface front extends from northern CO into western KS. This boundary, along with outflow from ongoing convection, may serve as foci for robust thunderstorm development later today. There is still a fair amount of uncertainty regarding convective development and evolution this afternoon/evening across the southern/central High Plains given weak forcing aloft. Modest low-level upslope flow and orographic effects should encourage at least isolated thunderstorms to initially develop over the higher terrain of the central Rockies/Front Range, and subsequently spread southeastward into the High Plains through the evening. The front/outflow boundary draped from northeast CO into southwest KS could also serve as a forcing mechanism to aid parcels in reaching their LFCs. The environment along/south of the front should become moderately unstable with continued daytime heating, with greater low-level moisture present across western KS into the OK/TX Panhandles and western OK. Modest low-level southeasterlies should persist through much of the afternoon/evening along and near the front, which should locally enhance 0-1 km SRH. It appears possible that a supercell or two could develop near the front later today and track south-southeastward in a favorable northwesterly mid-level flow regime. Isolated large hail would probably be the main threat if a supercell can be sustained, with perhaps a tornado also possible where low-level flow can remain backed to southeasterly near the front. Some guidance suggests a cluster or two may eventually emerge this evening across eastern CO and/or southwest KS, but this potential remains highly uncertain. Mesoscale trends will be monitored for a zone of more focused severe potential and possible outlook upgrade. ...New York/Pennsylvania... An amplified upper trough/low over Ontario and extending southward into the Great Lakes/Midwest is forecast to gradually shift eastward today. A related surface cold front will also advance east-southeastward through the period across parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic/OH Valley. Filtered daytime heating of a modestly moist low-level airmass ahead of the front will promote weak to locally moderate instability this afternoon, especially across parts of PA/NY. Current expectations are for thunderstorms to develop along/near the front through the afternoon across western PA/NY. While mid-level lapse rates are forecast to remain poor, which will likely limit updraft strength, sufficient deep-layer shear should be present to support some thunderstorm organization. Loosely organized clusters/cells may pose an isolated threat for damaging winds and perhaps marginally severe hail as they spread eastward across central PA and central/northern NY through early evening. This activity should weaken with eastward extent as it encounters a less unstable airmass. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN COLORADO INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS AND PORTIONS OF THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening across the southern/central High Plains spanning from eastern Colorado into western Oklahoma. Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are also possible across portions of Pennsylvania and New York. ...20z Update... An upgrade to Slight was made with this update in eastern Colorado/western Kansas. Thermodynamics and shear profiles are favorable for supercell development. Recent development on radar suggests attempts are ongoing across portions of eastern Colorado near the Palmer Divide and near Colorado Springs. Any more discrete supercells that can be maintained will pose a risk for large hail, and as such a 15% was added with this update. See MCD#2009 for more information. ..Thornton.. 08/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025/ ...Southern/Central High Plains... Elevated thunderstorms are ongoing late this morning across parts of western/southern KS in a northwesterly mid-level flow regime. This activity has generally remained sub-severe, but the stronger cores could be capable of producing occasional hail as they track southeastward this afternoon given the presence of sufficient MUCAPE and deep-layer shear. Modestly enhanced mid-level flow is expected to remain over parts of the central into southern Plains today, generally from eastern WY/CO into western KS/OK and vicinity, between a mid/upper-level anticyclone over the Southwest and mid/upper-level troughing across the Upper Midwest. A surface front extends from northern CO into western KS. This boundary, along with outflow from ongoing convection, may serve as foci for robust thunderstorm development later today. There is still a fair amount of uncertainty regarding convective development and evolution this afternoon/evening across the southern/central High Plains given weak forcing aloft. Modest low-level upslope flow and orographic effects should encourage at least isolated thunderstorms to initially develop over the higher terrain of the central Rockies/Front Range, and subsequently spread southeastward into the High Plains through the evening. The front/outflow boundary draped from northeast CO into southwest KS could also serve as a forcing mechanism to aid parcels in reaching their LFCs. The environment along/south of the front should become moderately unstable with continued daytime heating, with greater low-level moisture present across western KS into the OK/TX Panhandles and western OK. Modest low-level southeasterlies should persist through much of the afternoon/evening along and near the front, which should locally enhance 0-1 km SRH. It appears possible that a supercell or two could develop near the front later today and track south-southeastward in a favorable northwesterly mid-level flow regime. Isolated large hail would probably be the main threat if a supercell can be sustained, with perhaps a tornado also possible where low-level flow can remain backed to southeasterly near the front. Some guidance suggests a cluster or two may eventually emerge this evening across eastern CO and/or southwest KS, but this potential remains highly uncertain. Mesoscale trends will be monitored for a zone of more focused severe potential and possible outlook upgrade. ...New York/Pennsylvania... An amplified upper trough/low over Ontario and extending southward into the Great Lakes/Midwest is forecast to gradually shift eastward today. A related surface cold front will also advance east-southeastward through the period across parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic/OH Valley. Filtered daytime heating of a modestly moist low-level airmass ahead of the front will promote weak to locally moderate instability this afternoon, especially across parts of PA/NY. Current expectations are for thunderstorms to develop along/near the front through the afternoon across western PA/NY. While mid-level lapse rates are forecast to remain poor, which will likely limit updraft strength, sufficient deep-layer shear should be present to support some thunderstorm organization. Loosely organized clusters/cells may pose an isolated threat for damaging winds and perhaps marginally severe hail as they spread eastward across central PA and central/northern NY through early evening. This activity should weaken with eastward extent as it encounters a less unstable airmass. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN COLORADO INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS AND PORTIONS OF THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening across the southern/central High Plains spanning from eastern Colorado into western Oklahoma. Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are also possible across portions of Pennsylvania and New York. ...20z Update... An upgrade to Slight was made with this update in eastern Colorado/western Kansas. Thermodynamics and shear profiles are favorable for supercell development. Recent development on radar suggests attempts are ongoing across portions of eastern Colorado near the Palmer Divide and near Colorado Springs. Any more discrete supercells that can be maintained will pose a risk for large hail, and as such a 15% was added with this update. See MCD#2009 for more information. ..Thornton.. 08/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025/ ...Southern/Central High Plains... Elevated thunderstorms are ongoing late this morning across parts of western/southern KS in a northwesterly mid-level flow regime. This activity has generally remained sub-severe, but the stronger cores could be capable of producing occasional hail as they track southeastward this afternoon given the presence of sufficient MUCAPE and deep-layer shear. Modestly enhanced mid-level flow is expected to remain over parts of the central into southern Plains today, generally from eastern WY/CO into western KS/OK and vicinity, between a mid/upper-level anticyclone over the Southwest and mid/upper-level troughing across the Upper Midwest. A surface front extends from northern CO into western KS. This boundary, along with outflow from ongoing convection, may serve as foci for robust thunderstorm development later today. There is still a fair amount of uncertainty regarding convective development and evolution this afternoon/evening across the southern/central High Plains given weak forcing aloft. Modest low-level upslope flow and orographic effects should encourage at least isolated thunderstorms to initially develop over the higher terrain of the central Rockies/Front Range, and subsequently spread southeastward into the High Plains through the evening. The front/outflow boundary draped from northeast CO into southwest KS could also serve as a forcing mechanism to aid parcels in reaching their LFCs. The environment along/south of the front should become moderately unstable with continued daytime heating, with greater low-level moisture present across western KS into the OK/TX Panhandles and western OK. Modest low-level southeasterlies should persist through much of the afternoon/evening along and near the front, which should locally enhance 0-1 km SRH. It appears possible that a supercell or two could develop near the front later today and track south-southeastward in a favorable northwesterly mid-level flow regime. Isolated large hail would probably be the main threat if a supercell can be sustained, with perhaps a tornado also possible where low-level flow can remain backed to southeasterly near the front. Some guidance suggests a cluster or two may eventually emerge this evening across eastern CO and/or southwest KS, but this potential remains highly uncertain. Mesoscale trends will be monitored for a zone of more focused severe potential and possible outlook upgrade. ...New York/Pennsylvania... An amplified upper trough/low over Ontario and extending southward into the Great Lakes/Midwest is forecast to gradually shift eastward today. A related surface cold front will also advance east-southeastward through the period across parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic/OH Valley. Filtered daytime heating of a modestly moist low-level airmass ahead of the front will promote weak to locally moderate instability this afternoon, especially across parts of PA/NY. Current expectations are for thunderstorms to develop along/near the front through the afternoon across western PA/NY. While mid-level lapse rates are forecast to remain poor, which will likely limit updraft strength, sufficient deep-layer shear should be present to support some thunderstorm organization. Loosely organized clusters/cells may pose an isolated threat for damaging winds and perhaps marginally severe hail as they spread eastward across central PA and central/northern NY through early evening. This activity should weaken with eastward extent as it encounters a less unstable airmass. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN COLORADO INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS AND PORTIONS OF THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening across the southern/central High Plains spanning from eastern Colorado into western Oklahoma. Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are also possible across portions of Pennsylvania and New York. ...20z Update... An upgrade to Slight was made with this update in eastern Colorado/western Kansas. Thermodynamics and shear profiles are favorable for supercell development. Recent development on radar suggests attempts are ongoing across portions of eastern Colorado near the Palmer Divide and near Colorado Springs. Any more discrete supercells that can be maintained will pose a risk for large hail, and as such a 15% was added with this update. See MCD#2009 for more information. ..Thornton.. 08/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025/ ...Southern/Central High Plains... Elevated thunderstorms are ongoing late this morning across parts of western/southern KS in a northwesterly mid-level flow regime. This activity has generally remained sub-severe, but the stronger cores could be capable of producing occasional hail as they track southeastward this afternoon given the presence of sufficient MUCAPE and deep-layer shear. Modestly enhanced mid-level flow is expected to remain over parts of the central into southern Plains today, generally from eastern WY/CO into western KS/OK and vicinity, between a mid/upper-level anticyclone over the Southwest and mid/upper-level troughing across the Upper Midwest. A surface front extends from northern CO into western KS. This boundary, along with outflow from ongoing convection, may serve as foci for robust thunderstorm development later today. There is still a fair amount of uncertainty regarding convective development and evolution this afternoon/evening across the southern/central High Plains given weak forcing aloft. Modest low-level upslope flow and orographic effects should encourage at least isolated thunderstorms to initially develop over the higher terrain of the central Rockies/Front Range, and subsequently spread southeastward into the High Plains through the evening. The front/outflow boundary draped from northeast CO into southwest KS could also serve as a forcing mechanism to aid parcels in reaching their LFCs. The environment along/south of the front should become moderately unstable with continued daytime heating, with greater low-level moisture present across western KS into the OK/TX Panhandles and western OK. Modest low-level southeasterlies should persist through much of the afternoon/evening along and near the front, which should locally enhance 0-1 km SRH. It appears possible that a supercell or two could develop near the front later today and track south-southeastward in a favorable northwesterly mid-level flow regime. Isolated large hail would probably be the main threat if a supercell can be sustained, with perhaps a tornado also possible where low-level flow can remain backed to southeasterly near the front. Some guidance suggests a cluster or two may eventually emerge this evening across eastern CO and/or southwest KS, but this potential remains highly uncertain. Mesoscale trends will be monitored for a zone of more focused severe potential and possible outlook upgrade. ...New York/Pennsylvania... An amplified upper trough/low over Ontario and extending southward into the Great Lakes/Midwest is forecast to gradually shift eastward today. A related surface cold front will also advance east-southeastward through the period across parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic/OH Valley. Filtered daytime heating of a modestly moist low-level airmass ahead of the front will promote weak to locally moderate instability this afternoon, especially across parts of PA/NY. Current expectations are for thunderstorms to develop along/near the front through the afternoon across western PA/NY. While mid-level lapse rates are forecast to remain poor, which will likely limit updraft strength, sufficient deep-layer shear should be present to support some thunderstorm organization. Loosely organized clusters/cells may pose an isolated threat for damaging winds and perhaps marginally severe hail as they spread eastward across central PA and central/northern NY through early evening. This activity should weaken with eastward extent as it encounters a less unstable airmass. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN COLORADO INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS AND PORTIONS OF THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening across the southern/central High Plains spanning from eastern Colorado into western Oklahoma. Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are also possible across portions of Pennsylvania and New York. ...20z Update... An upgrade to Slight was made with this update in eastern Colorado/western Kansas. Thermodynamics and shear profiles are favorable for supercell development. Recent development on radar suggests attempts are ongoing across portions of eastern Colorado near the Palmer Divide and near Colorado Springs. Any more discrete supercells that can be maintained will pose a risk for large hail, and as such a 15% was added with this update. See MCD#2009 for more information. ..Thornton.. 08/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025/ ...Southern/Central High Plains... Elevated thunderstorms are ongoing late this morning across parts of western/southern KS in a northwesterly mid-level flow regime. This activity has generally remained sub-severe, but the stronger cores could be capable of producing occasional hail as they track southeastward this afternoon given the presence of sufficient MUCAPE and deep-layer shear. Modestly enhanced mid-level flow is expected to remain over parts of the central into southern Plains today, generally from eastern WY/CO into western KS/OK and vicinity, between a mid/upper-level anticyclone over the Southwest and mid/upper-level troughing across the Upper Midwest. A surface front extends from northern CO into western KS. This boundary, along with outflow from ongoing convection, may serve as foci for robust thunderstorm development later today. There is still a fair amount of uncertainty regarding convective development and evolution this afternoon/evening across the southern/central High Plains given weak forcing aloft. Modest low-level upslope flow and orographic effects should encourage at least isolated thunderstorms to initially develop over the higher terrain of the central Rockies/Front Range, and subsequently spread southeastward into the High Plains through the evening. The front/outflow boundary draped from northeast CO into southwest KS could also serve as a forcing mechanism to aid parcels in reaching their LFCs. The environment along/south of the front should become moderately unstable with continued daytime heating, with greater low-level moisture present across western KS into the OK/TX Panhandles and western OK. Modest low-level southeasterlies should persist through much of the afternoon/evening along and near the front, which should locally enhance 0-1 km SRH. It appears possible that a supercell or two could develop near the front later today and track south-southeastward in a favorable northwesterly mid-level flow regime. Isolated large hail would probably be the main threat if a supercell can be sustained, with perhaps a tornado also possible where low-level flow can remain backed to southeasterly near the front. Some guidance suggests a cluster or two may eventually emerge this evening across eastern CO and/or southwest KS, but this potential remains highly uncertain. Mesoscale trends will be monitored for a zone of more focused severe potential and possible outlook upgrade. ...New York/Pennsylvania... An amplified upper trough/low over Ontario and extending southward into the Great Lakes/Midwest is forecast to gradually shift eastward today. A related surface cold front will also advance east-southeastward through the period across parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic/OH Valley. Filtered daytime heating of a modestly moist low-level airmass ahead of the front will promote weak to locally moderate instability this afternoon, especially across parts of PA/NY. Current expectations are for thunderstorms to develop along/near the front through the afternoon across western PA/NY. While mid-level lapse rates are forecast to remain poor, which will likely limit updraft strength, sufficient deep-layer shear should be present to support some thunderstorm organization. Loosely organized clusters/cells may pose an isolated threat for damaging winds and perhaps marginally severe hail as they spread eastward across central PA and central/northern NY through early evening. This activity should weaken with eastward extent as it encounters a less unstable airmass. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN COLORADO INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS AND PORTIONS OF THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening across the southern/central High Plains spanning from eastern Colorado into western Oklahoma. Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are also possible across portions of Pennsylvania and New York. ...20z Update... An upgrade to Slight was made with this update in eastern Colorado/western Kansas. Thermodynamics and shear profiles are favorable for supercell development. Recent development on radar suggests attempts are ongoing across portions of eastern Colorado near the Palmer Divide and near Colorado Springs. Any more discrete supercells that can be maintained will pose a risk for large hail, and as such a 15% was added with this update. See MCD#2009 for more information. ..Thornton.. 08/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025/ ...Southern/Central High Plains... Elevated thunderstorms are ongoing late this morning across parts of western/southern KS in a northwesterly mid-level flow regime. This activity has generally remained sub-severe, but the stronger cores could be capable of producing occasional hail as they track southeastward this afternoon given the presence of sufficient MUCAPE and deep-layer shear. Modestly enhanced mid-level flow is expected to remain over parts of the central into southern Plains today, generally from eastern WY/CO into western KS/OK and vicinity, between a mid/upper-level anticyclone over the Southwest and mid/upper-level troughing across the Upper Midwest. A surface front extends from northern CO into western KS. This boundary, along with outflow from ongoing convection, may serve as foci for robust thunderstorm development later today. There is still a fair amount of uncertainty regarding convective development and evolution this afternoon/evening across the southern/central High Plains given weak forcing aloft. Modest low-level upslope flow and orographic effects should encourage at least isolated thunderstorms to initially develop over the higher terrain of the central Rockies/Front Range, and subsequently spread southeastward into the High Plains through the evening. The front/outflow boundary draped from northeast CO into southwest KS could also serve as a forcing mechanism to aid parcels in reaching their LFCs. The environment along/south of the front should become moderately unstable with continued daytime heating, with greater low-level moisture present across western KS into the OK/TX Panhandles and western OK. Modest low-level southeasterlies should persist through much of the afternoon/evening along and near the front, which should locally enhance 0-1 km SRH. It appears possible that a supercell or two could develop near the front later today and track south-southeastward in a favorable northwesterly mid-level flow regime. Isolated large hail would probably be the main threat if a supercell can be sustained, with perhaps a tornado also possible where low-level flow can remain backed to southeasterly near the front. Some guidance suggests a cluster or two may eventually emerge this evening across eastern CO and/or southwest KS, but this potential remains highly uncertain. Mesoscale trends will be monitored for a zone of more focused severe potential and possible outlook upgrade. ...New York/Pennsylvania... An amplified upper trough/low over Ontario and extending southward into the Great Lakes/Midwest is forecast to gradually shift eastward today. A related surface cold front will also advance east-southeastward through the period across parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic/OH Valley. Filtered daytime heating of a modestly moist low-level airmass ahead of the front will promote weak to locally moderate instability this afternoon, especially across parts of PA/NY. Current expectations are for thunderstorms to develop along/near the front through the afternoon across western PA/NY. While mid-level lapse rates are forecast to remain poor, which will likely limit updraft strength, sufficient deep-layer shear should be present to support some thunderstorm organization. Loosely organized clusters/cells may pose an isolated threat for damaging winds and perhaps marginally severe hail as they spread eastward across central PA and central/northern NY through early evening. This activity should weaken with eastward extent as it encounters a less unstable airmass. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN COLORADO INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS AND PORTIONS OF THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening across the southern/central High Plains spanning from eastern Colorado into western Oklahoma. Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are also possible across portions of Pennsylvania and New York. ...20z Update... An upgrade to Slight was made with this update in eastern Colorado/western Kansas. Thermodynamics and shear profiles are favorable for supercell development. Recent development on radar suggests attempts are ongoing across portions of eastern Colorado near the Palmer Divide and near Colorado Springs. Any more discrete supercells that can be maintained will pose a risk for large hail, and as such a 15% was added with this update. See MCD#2009 for more information. ..Thornton.. 08/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025/ ...Southern/Central High Plains... Elevated thunderstorms are ongoing late this morning across parts of western/southern KS in a northwesterly mid-level flow regime. This activity has generally remained sub-severe, but the stronger cores could be capable of producing occasional hail as they track southeastward this afternoon given the presence of sufficient MUCAPE and deep-layer shear. Modestly enhanced mid-level flow is expected to remain over parts of the central into southern Plains today, generally from eastern WY/CO into western KS/OK and vicinity, between a mid/upper-level anticyclone over the Southwest and mid/upper-level troughing across the Upper Midwest. A surface front extends from northern CO into western KS. This boundary, along with outflow from ongoing convection, may serve as foci for robust thunderstorm development later today. There is still a fair amount of uncertainty regarding convective development and evolution this afternoon/evening across the southern/central High Plains given weak forcing aloft. Modest low-level upslope flow and orographic effects should encourage at least isolated thunderstorms to initially develop over the higher terrain of the central Rockies/Front Range, and subsequently spread southeastward into the High Plains through the evening. The front/outflow boundary draped from northeast CO into southwest KS could also serve as a forcing mechanism to aid parcels in reaching their LFCs. The environment along/south of the front should become moderately unstable with continued daytime heating, with greater low-level moisture present across western KS into the OK/TX Panhandles and western OK. Modest low-level southeasterlies should persist through much of the afternoon/evening along and near the front, which should locally enhance 0-1 km SRH. It appears possible that a supercell or two could develop near the front later today and track south-southeastward in a favorable northwesterly mid-level flow regime. Isolated large hail would probably be the main threat if a supercell can be sustained, with perhaps a tornado also possible where low-level flow can remain backed to southeasterly near the front. Some guidance suggests a cluster or two may eventually emerge this evening across eastern CO and/or southwest KS, but this potential remains highly uncertain. Mesoscale trends will be monitored for a zone of more focused severe potential and possible outlook upgrade. ...New York/Pennsylvania... An amplified upper trough/low over Ontario and extending southward into the Great Lakes/Midwest is forecast to gradually shift eastward today. A related surface cold front will also advance east-southeastward through the period across parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic/OH Valley. Filtered daytime heating of a modestly moist low-level airmass ahead of the front will promote weak to locally moderate instability this afternoon, especially across parts of PA/NY. Current expectations are for thunderstorms to develop along/near the front through the afternoon across western PA/NY. While mid-level lapse rates are forecast to remain poor, which will likely limit updraft strength, sufficient deep-layer shear should be present to support some thunderstorm organization. Loosely organized clusters/cells may pose an isolated threat for damaging winds and perhaps marginally severe hail as they spread eastward across central PA and central/northern NY through early evening. This activity should weaken with eastward extent as it encounters a less unstable airmass. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN COLORADO INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS AND PORTIONS OF THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening across the southern/central High Plains spanning from eastern Colorado into western Oklahoma. Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are also possible across portions of Pennsylvania and New York. ...20z Update... An upgrade to Slight was made with this update in eastern Colorado/western Kansas. Thermodynamics and shear profiles are favorable for supercell development. Recent development on radar suggests attempts are ongoing across portions of eastern Colorado near the Palmer Divide and near Colorado Springs. Any more discrete supercells that can be maintained will pose a risk for large hail, and as such a 15% was added with this update. See MCD#2009 for more information. ..Thornton.. 08/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025/ ...Southern/Central High Plains... Elevated thunderstorms are ongoing late this morning across parts of western/southern KS in a northwesterly mid-level flow regime. This activity has generally remained sub-severe, but the stronger cores could be capable of producing occasional hail as they track southeastward this afternoon given the presence of sufficient MUCAPE and deep-layer shear. Modestly enhanced mid-level flow is expected to remain over parts of the central into southern Plains today, generally from eastern WY/CO into western KS/OK and vicinity, between a mid/upper-level anticyclone over the Southwest and mid/upper-level troughing across the Upper Midwest. A surface front extends from northern CO into western KS. This boundary, along with outflow from ongoing convection, may serve as foci for robust thunderstorm development later today. There is still a fair amount of uncertainty regarding convective development and evolution this afternoon/evening across the southern/central High Plains given weak forcing aloft. Modest low-level upslope flow and orographic effects should encourage at least isolated thunderstorms to initially develop over the higher terrain of the central Rockies/Front Range, and subsequently spread southeastward into the High Plains through the evening. The front/outflow boundary draped from northeast CO into southwest KS could also serve as a forcing mechanism to aid parcels in reaching their LFCs. The environment along/south of the front should become moderately unstable with continued daytime heating, with greater low-level moisture present across western KS into the OK/TX Panhandles and western OK. Modest low-level southeasterlies should persist through much of the afternoon/evening along and near the front, which should locally enhance 0-1 km SRH. It appears possible that a supercell or two could develop near the front later today and track south-southeastward in a favorable northwesterly mid-level flow regime. Isolated large hail would probably be the main threat if a supercell can be sustained, with perhaps a tornado also possible where low-level flow can remain backed to southeasterly near the front. Some guidance suggests a cluster or two may eventually emerge this evening across eastern CO and/or southwest KS, but this potential remains highly uncertain. Mesoscale trends will be monitored for a zone of more focused severe potential and possible outlook upgrade. ...New York/Pennsylvania... An amplified upper trough/low over Ontario and extending southward into the Great Lakes/Midwest is forecast to gradually shift eastward today. A related surface cold front will also advance east-southeastward through the period across parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic/OH Valley. Filtered daytime heating of a modestly moist low-level airmass ahead of the front will promote weak to locally moderate instability this afternoon, especially across parts of PA/NY. Current expectations are for thunderstorms to develop along/near the front through the afternoon across western PA/NY. While mid-level lapse rates are forecast to remain poor, which will likely limit updraft strength, sufficient deep-layer shear should be present to support some thunderstorm organization. Loosely organized clusters/cells may pose an isolated threat for damaging winds and perhaps marginally severe hail as they spread eastward across central PA and central/northern NY through early evening. This activity should weaken with eastward extent as it encounters a less unstable airmass. Read more

No watches are valid as of Sun Aug 24 20:04:01 UTC 2025.