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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Tropical Cyclone Helene is forecast to move inland across northern Florida and Georgia on Thursday. A risk for tropical-cyclone tornadoes will accompany this system, particularly from the central Florida Peninsula into southeast Georgia and parts of the Midlands and Low Country of South Carolina. ...FL/GA/SC/southeast NC... Latest forecast track guidance from the National Hurricane Center has Hurricane Helene over the eastern Gulf of Mexico (about 225 miles west-southwest of SRQ) early Thursday morning. This system is forecast to continue northward and make landfall in the FL Big Bend vicinity just east of AAF Thursday evening. As the storm moves northward throughout the day, the strong wind field accompanying it will expand northward as well, beginning over the FL Peninsula Thursday morning before reaching into GA during the afternoon and into SC by Thursday evening. These increased winds will result in long, looping hodographs with more than enough low-level shear to support tornadogenesis. As such, buoyancy-related updraft strength/persistence will be the primary factor determining thunderstorm severity and overall tornado potential and frequency. Initial rainbands will likely be impacting the west coast of the FL Peninsula at the beginning of the period before gradually spreading northward/northeastward throughout the day as the system moves northward. Tornadoes are most likely within the low-topped convection within these rainbands, so a low-probability tornado risk will begin early across the FL Peninsula before spreading northeastward over time. A relatively greater tornado risk is anticipated later, with best overlap between these rainbands and the strong low/mid-level flow beginning over FL during the late afternoon and moving into GA and SC during the evening and overnight. Highest tornado potential is still anticipated across coastal GA and SC Low Country after 00Z Friday. ...Southern New England/Hudson Valley... A compact upper low is forecast to progress eastward across southern Quebec and adjacent portions of New England on Thursday. Strong large-scale forcing for ascent will aid in the development of a convective line during the afternoon from southern New England into the Hudson Valley. Buoyancy will be modest, but enhanced mid-level flow through the base of the upper low will support moderate to strong deep-layer vertical shear. Consequently, a few stronger storms capable of damaging gusts are possible. Overall coverage of damaging gusts is currently expected to remain below 5%. ..Mosier.. 09/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE GULF COAST INTO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible this afternoon from parts of the Southeast and central/southern Appalachians to the Texas/Louisiana Gulf Coast. Some tornado threat may develop across the Florida Peninsula by this evening, in association with Tropical Cyclone Helene. ..Southeast and southern Appalachians... The influence of the upstream mid/upper-level trough and moisture streaming north from the Gulf of Mexico and Helene will lead to widespread precipitation across parts of the Southeast and southern Appalachians. This will tend to limit available buoyancy in some areas, but strong to locally severe storms may occur. Favorable deep-layer winds/shear exist, especially across the southern Appalachians vicinity where a few semi-discrete supercells could occur aside from more prevalent quasi-linear convective bands. Locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado could accompany the strongest storms, before low/mid-level lapse rates and buoyancy become increasingly weak with time, and an outflow-reinforced effective front sags southward across the region. ...Texas Gulf Coast/Middle Gulf Coast... Somewhat stronger diurnal destabilization will be possible from parts of central/east Texas into Louisiana, and perhaps into Mississippi, with MLCAPE potentially increasing above 1500 J/kg. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development will be possible near a southward-moving cold front. Effective shear will generally range from 25-35 kt, and a few modestly organized storms are possible. Isolated damaging gusts could accompany the strongest storms within this regime. ...Florida Peninsula and Keys... Hurricane Helene's wind field is forecast to be rather large, especially on the east side of the circulation, associated with a strengthening Helene through the afternoon and tonight. Reference the National Hurricane Center for the latest Helene details. This scenario will result in modestly strengthening low-level shear/SRH across the Florida Peninsula during the day, but more so into the evening and overnight after the peak diurnal instability cycle. Instability will likely remain rather weak overall, and details regarding the intensity of any outer rain bands remain uncertain. However, some tropical-cyclone tornado threat could evolve across parts of the Florida Peninsula and Keys, mainly into tonight. ...Eastern Washington/northern Idaho/northwest Montana... While buoyancy is expected to remain quite weak, relatively steep mid-level lapse rates will support thunderstorm potential late this afternoon through early evening from eastern Washington into northern Idaho and northwest Montana, in advance of the approaching shortwave trough. Strong deep-layer flow/shear could support a locally severe storm or two with gusty winds and possibly some hail. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 09/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE GULF COAST INTO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible this afternoon from parts of the Southeast and central/southern Appalachians to the Texas/Louisiana Gulf Coast. Some tornado threat may develop across the Florida Peninsula by this evening, in association with Tropical Cyclone Helene. ..Southeast and southern Appalachians... The influence of the upstream mid/upper-level trough and moisture streaming north from the Gulf of Mexico and Helene will lead to widespread precipitation across parts of the Southeast and southern Appalachians. This will tend to limit available buoyancy in some areas, but strong to locally severe storms may occur. Favorable deep-layer winds/shear exist, especially across the southern Appalachians vicinity where a few semi-discrete supercells could occur aside from more prevalent quasi-linear convective bands. Locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado could accompany the strongest storms, before low/mid-level lapse rates and buoyancy become increasingly weak with time, and an outflow-reinforced effective front sags southward across the region. ...Texas Gulf Coast/Middle Gulf Coast... Somewhat stronger diurnal destabilization will be possible from parts of central/east Texas into Louisiana, and perhaps into Mississippi, with MLCAPE potentially increasing above 1500 J/kg. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development will be possible near a southward-moving cold front. Effective shear will generally range from 25-35 kt, and a few modestly organized storms are possible. Isolated damaging gusts could accompany the strongest storms within this regime. ...Florida Peninsula and Keys... Hurricane Helene's wind field is forecast to be rather large, especially on the east side of the circulation, associated with a strengthening Helene through the afternoon and tonight. Reference the National Hurricane Center for the latest Helene details. This scenario will result in modestly strengthening low-level shear/SRH across the Florida Peninsula during the day, but more so into the evening and overnight after the peak diurnal instability cycle. Instability will likely remain rather weak overall, and details regarding the intensity of any outer rain bands remain uncertain. However, some tropical-cyclone tornado threat could evolve across parts of the Florida Peninsula and Keys, mainly into tonight. ...Eastern Washington/northern Idaho/northwest Montana... While buoyancy is expected to remain quite weak, relatively steep mid-level lapse rates will support thunderstorm potential late this afternoon through early evening from eastern Washington into northern Idaho and northwest Montana, in advance of the approaching shortwave trough. Strong deep-layer flow/shear could support a locally severe storm or two with gusty winds and possibly some hail. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 09/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE GULF COAST INTO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible this afternoon from parts of the Southeast and central/southern Appalachians to the Texas/Louisiana Gulf Coast. Some tornado threat may develop across the Florida Peninsula by this evening, in association with Tropical Cyclone Helene. ..Southeast and southern Appalachians... The influence of the upstream mid/upper-level trough and moisture streaming north from the Gulf of Mexico and Helene will lead to widespread precipitation across parts of the Southeast and southern Appalachians. This will tend to limit available buoyancy in some areas, but strong to locally severe storms may occur. Favorable deep-layer winds/shear exist, especially across the southern Appalachians vicinity where a few semi-discrete supercells could occur aside from more prevalent quasi-linear convective bands. Locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado could accompany the strongest storms, before low/mid-level lapse rates and buoyancy become increasingly weak with time, and an outflow-reinforced effective front sags southward across the region. ...Texas Gulf Coast/Middle Gulf Coast... Somewhat stronger diurnal destabilization will be possible from parts of central/east Texas into Louisiana, and perhaps into Mississippi, with MLCAPE potentially increasing above 1500 J/kg. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development will be possible near a southward-moving cold front. Effective shear will generally range from 25-35 kt, and a few modestly organized storms are possible. Isolated damaging gusts could accompany the strongest storms within this regime. ...Florida Peninsula and Keys... Hurricane Helene's wind field is forecast to be rather large, especially on the east side of the circulation, associated with a strengthening Helene through the afternoon and tonight. Reference the National Hurricane Center for the latest Helene details. This scenario will result in modestly strengthening low-level shear/SRH across the Florida Peninsula during the day, but more so into the evening and overnight after the peak diurnal instability cycle. Instability will likely remain rather weak overall, and details regarding the intensity of any outer rain bands remain uncertain. However, some tropical-cyclone tornado threat could evolve across parts of the Florida Peninsula and Keys, mainly into tonight. ...Eastern Washington/northern Idaho/northwest Montana... While buoyancy is expected to remain quite weak, relatively steep mid-level lapse rates will support thunderstorm potential late this afternoon through early evening from eastern Washington into northern Idaho and northwest Montana, in advance of the approaching shortwave trough. Strong deep-layer flow/shear could support a locally severe storm or two with gusty winds and possibly some hail. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 09/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE GULF COAST INTO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible this afternoon from parts of the Southeast and central/southern Appalachians to the Texas/Louisiana Gulf Coast. Some tornado threat may develop across the Florida Peninsula by this evening, in association with Tropical Cyclone Helene. ..Southeast and southern Appalachians... The influence of the upstream mid/upper-level trough and moisture streaming north from the Gulf of Mexico and Helene will lead to widespread precipitation across parts of the Southeast and southern Appalachians. This will tend to limit available buoyancy in some areas, but strong to locally severe storms may occur. Favorable deep-layer winds/shear exist, especially across the southern Appalachians vicinity where a few semi-discrete supercells could occur aside from more prevalent quasi-linear convective bands. Locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado could accompany the strongest storms, before low/mid-level lapse rates and buoyancy become increasingly weak with time, and an outflow-reinforced effective front sags southward across the region. ...Texas Gulf Coast/Middle Gulf Coast... Somewhat stronger diurnal destabilization will be possible from parts of central/east Texas into Louisiana, and perhaps into Mississippi, with MLCAPE potentially increasing above 1500 J/kg. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development will be possible near a southward-moving cold front. Effective shear will generally range from 25-35 kt, and a few modestly organized storms are possible. Isolated damaging gusts could accompany the strongest storms within this regime. ...Florida Peninsula and Keys... Hurricane Helene's wind field is forecast to be rather large, especially on the east side of the circulation, associated with a strengthening Helene through the afternoon and tonight. Reference the National Hurricane Center for the latest Helene details. This scenario will result in modestly strengthening low-level shear/SRH across the Florida Peninsula during the day, but more so into the evening and overnight after the peak diurnal instability cycle. Instability will likely remain rather weak overall, and details regarding the intensity of any outer rain bands remain uncertain. However, some tropical-cyclone tornado threat could evolve across parts of the Florida Peninsula and Keys, mainly into tonight. ...Eastern Washington/northern Idaho/northwest Montana... While buoyancy is expected to remain quite weak, relatively steep mid-level lapse rates will support thunderstorm potential late this afternoon through early evening from eastern Washington into northern Idaho and northwest Montana, in advance of the approaching shortwave trough. Strong deep-layer flow/shear could support a locally severe storm or two with gusty winds and possibly some hail. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 09/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE GULF COAST INTO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible this afternoon from parts of the Southeast and central/southern Appalachians to the Texas/Louisiana Gulf Coast. Some tornado threat may develop across the Florida Peninsula by this evening, in association with Tropical Cyclone Helene. ..Southeast and southern Appalachians... The influence of the upstream mid/upper-level trough and moisture streaming north from the Gulf of Mexico and Helene will lead to widespread precipitation across parts of the Southeast and southern Appalachians. This will tend to limit available buoyancy in some areas, but strong to locally severe storms may occur. Favorable deep-layer winds/shear exist, especially across the southern Appalachians vicinity where a few semi-discrete supercells could occur aside from more prevalent quasi-linear convective bands. Locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado could accompany the strongest storms, before low/mid-level lapse rates and buoyancy become increasingly weak with time, and an outflow-reinforced effective front sags southward across the region. ...Texas Gulf Coast/Middle Gulf Coast... Somewhat stronger diurnal destabilization will be possible from parts of central/east Texas into Louisiana, and perhaps into Mississippi, with MLCAPE potentially increasing above 1500 J/kg. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development will be possible near a southward-moving cold front. Effective shear will generally range from 25-35 kt, and a few modestly organized storms are possible. Isolated damaging gusts could accompany the strongest storms within this regime. ...Florida Peninsula and Keys... Hurricane Helene's wind field is forecast to be rather large, especially on the east side of the circulation, associated with a strengthening Helene through the afternoon and tonight. Reference the National Hurricane Center for the latest Helene details. This scenario will result in modestly strengthening low-level shear/SRH across the Florida Peninsula during the day, but more so into the evening and overnight after the peak diurnal instability cycle. Instability will likely remain rather weak overall, and details regarding the intensity of any outer rain bands remain uncertain. However, some tropical-cyclone tornado threat could evolve across parts of the Florida Peninsula and Keys, mainly into tonight. ...Eastern Washington/northern Idaho/northwest Montana... While buoyancy is expected to remain quite weak, relatively steep mid-level lapse rates will support thunderstorm potential late this afternoon through early evening from eastern Washington into northern Idaho and northwest Montana, in advance of the approaching shortwave trough. Strong deep-layer flow/shear could support a locally severe storm or two with gusty winds and possibly some hail. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 09/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE GULF COAST INTO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible this afternoon from parts of the Southeast and central/southern Appalachians to the Texas/Louisiana Gulf Coast. Some tornado threat may develop across the Florida Peninsula by this evening, in association with Tropical Cyclone Helene. ..Southeast and southern Appalachians... The influence of the upstream mid/upper-level trough and moisture streaming north from the Gulf of Mexico and Helene will lead to widespread precipitation across parts of the Southeast and southern Appalachians. This will tend to limit available buoyancy in some areas, but strong to locally severe storms may occur. Favorable deep-layer winds/shear exist, especially across the southern Appalachians vicinity where a few semi-discrete supercells could occur aside from more prevalent quasi-linear convective bands. Locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado could accompany the strongest storms, before low/mid-level lapse rates and buoyancy become increasingly weak with time, and an outflow-reinforced effective front sags southward across the region. ...Texas Gulf Coast/Middle Gulf Coast... Somewhat stronger diurnal destabilization will be possible from parts of central/east Texas into Louisiana, and perhaps into Mississippi, with MLCAPE potentially increasing above 1500 J/kg. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development will be possible near a southward-moving cold front. Effective shear will generally range from 25-35 kt, and a few modestly organized storms are possible. Isolated damaging gusts could accompany the strongest storms within this regime. ...Florida Peninsula and Keys... Hurricane Helene's wind field is forecast to be rather large, especially on the east side of the circulation, associated with a strengthening Helene through the afternoon and tonight. Reference the National Hurricane Center for the latest Helene details. This scenario will result in modestly strengthening low-level shear/SRH across the Florida Peninsula during the day, but more so into the evening and overnight after the peak diurnal instability cycle. Instability will likely remain rather weak overall, and details regarding the intensity of any outer rain bands remain uncertain. However, some tropical-cyclone tornado threat could evolve across parts of the Florida Peninsula and Keys, mainly into tonight. ...Eastern Washington/northern Idaho/northwest Montana... While buoyancy is expected to remain quite weak, relatively steep mid-level lapse rates will support thunderstorm potential late this afternoon through early evening from eastern Washington into northern Idaho and northwest Montana, in advance of the approaching shortwave trough. Strong deep-layer flow/shear could support a locally severe storm or two with gusty winds and possibly some hail. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 09/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE GULF COAST INTO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible this afternoon from parts of the Southeast and central/southern Appalachians to the Texas/Louisiana Gulf Coast. Some tornado threat may develop across the Florida Peninsula by this evening, in association with Tropical Cyclone Helene. ..Southeast and southern Appalachians... The influence of the upstream mid/upper-level trough and moisture streaming north from the Gulf of Mexico and Helene will lead to widespread precipitation across parts of the Southeast and southern Appalachians. This will tend to limit available buoyancy in some areas, but strong to locally severe storms may occur. Favorable deep-layer winds/shear exist, especially across the southern Appalachians vicinity where a few semi-discrete supercells could occur aside from more prevalent quasi-linear convective bands. Locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado could accompany the strongest storms, before low/mid-level lapse rates and buoyancy become increasingly weak with time, and an outflow-reinforced effective front sags southward across the region. ...Texas Gulf Coast/Middle Gulf Coast... Somewhat stronger diurnal destabilization will be possible from parts of central/east Texas into Louisiana, and perhaps into Mississippi, with MLCAPE potentially increasing above 1500 J/kg. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development will be possible near a southward-moving cold front. Effective shear will generally range from 25-35 kt, and a few modestly organized storms are possible. Isolated damaging gusts could accompany the strongest storms within this regime. ...Florida Peninsula and Keys... Hurricane Helene's wind field is forecast to be rather large, especially on the east side of the circulation, associated with a strengthening Helene through the afternoon and tonight. Reference the National Hurricane Center for the latest Helene details. This scenario will result in modestly strengthening low-level shear/SRH across the Florida Peninsula during the day, but more so into the evening and overnight after the peak diurnal instability cycle. Instability will likely remain rather weak overall, and details regarding the intensity of any outer rain bands remain uncertain. However, some tropical-cyclone tornado threat could evolve across parts of the Florida Peninsula and Keys, mainly into tonight. ...Eastern Washington/northern Idaho/northwest Montana... While buoyancy is expected to remain quite weak, relatively steep mid-level lapse rates will support thunderstorm potential late this afternoon through early evening from eastern Washington into northern Idaho and northwest Montana, in advance of the approaching shortwave trough. Strong deep-layer flow/shear could support a locally severe storm or two with gusty winds and possibly some hail. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 09/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE GULF COAST INTO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible this afternoon from parts of the Southeast and central/southern Appalachians to the Texas/Louisiana Gulf Coast. Some tornado threat may develop across the Florida Peninsula by this evening, in association with Tropical Cyclone Helene. ..Southeast and southern Appalachians... The influence of the upstream mid/upper-level trough and moisture streaming north from the Gulf of Mexico and Helene will lead to widespread precipitation across parts of the Southeast and southern Appalachians. This will tend to limit available buoyancy in some areas, but strong to locally severe storms may occur. Favorable deep-layer winds/shear exist, especially across the southern Appalachians vicinity where a few semi-discrete supercells could occur aside from more prevalent quasi-linear convective bands. Locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado could accompany the strongest storms, before low/mid-level lapse rates and buoyancy become increasingly weak with time, and an outflow-reinforced effective front sags southward across the region. ...Texas Gulf Coast/Middle Gulf Coast... Somewhat stronger diurnal destabilization will be possible from parts of central/east Texas into Louisiana, and perhaps into Mississippi, with MLCAPE potentially increasing above 1500 J/kg. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development will be possible near a southward-moving cold front. Effective shear will generally range from 25-35 kt, and a few modestly organized storms are possible. Isolated damaging gusts could accompany the strongest storms within this regime. ...Florida Peninsula and Keys... Hurricane Helene's wind field is forecast to be rather large, especially on the east side of the circulation, associated with a strengthening Helene through the afternoon and tonight. Reference the National Hurricane Center for the latest Helene details. This scenario will result in modestly strengthening low-level shear/SRH across the Florida Peninsula during the day, but more so into the evening and overnight after the peak diurnal instability cycle. Instability will likely remain rather weak overall, and details regarding the intensity of any outer rain bands remain uncertain. However, some tropical-cyclone tornado threat could evolve across parts of the Florida Peninsula and Keys, mainly into tonight. ...Eastern Washington/northern Idaho/northwest Montana... While buoyancy is expected to remain quite weak, relatively steep mid-level lapse rates will support thunderstorm potential late this afternoon through early evening from eastern Washington into northern Idaho and northwest Montana, in advance of the approaching shortwave trough. Strong deep-layer flow/shear could support a locally severe storm or two with gusty winds and possibly some hail. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 09/25/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 09/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0113 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... A trough will traverse the northern portion of the western US ridge today, bringing enhanced mid-level flow over the Cascades into western Washington and Oregon. Across southwestern Oregon, sustained winds around 15-20 mph will overlap relative humidity reductions to around 20-25 percent. Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible. Receptive fuels in this region are spotty, which leads to low confidence in including an area at this time. In the lee of the Bighorn Mountains in Wyoming, some Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions will be possible. Overall, sustained Elevated to Critical wind speeds appear brief and localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 09/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0113 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... A trough will traverse the northern portion of the western US ridge today, bringing enhanced mid-level flow over the Cascades into western Washington and Oregon. Across southwestern Oregon, sustained winds around 15-20 mph will overlap relative humidity reductions to around 20-25 percent. Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible. Receptive fuels in this region are spotty, which leads to low confidence in including an area at this time. In the lee of the Bighorn Mountains in Wyoming, some Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions will be possible. Overall, sustained Elevated to Critical wind speeds appear brief and localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 09/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0113 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... A trough will traverse the northern portion of the western US ridge today, bringing enhanced mid-level flow over the Cascades into western Washington and Oregon. Across southwestern Oregon, sustained winds around 15-20 mph will overlap relative humidity reductions to around 20-25 percent. Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible. Receptive fuels in this region are spotty, which leads to low confidence in including an area at this time. In the lee of the Bighorn Mountains in Wyoming, some Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions will be possible. Overall, sustained Elevated to Critical wind speeds appear brief and localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 09/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0113 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... A trough will traverse the northern portion of the western US ridge today, bringing enhanced mid-level flow over the Cascades into western Washington and Oregon. Across southwestern Oregon, sustained winds around 15-20 mph will overlap relative humidity reductions to around 20-25 percent. Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible. Receptive fuels in this region are spotty, which leads to low confidence in including an area at this time. In the lee of the Bighorn Mountains in Wyoming, some Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions will be possible. Overall, sustained Elevated to Critical wind speeds appear brief and localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 09/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0113 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... A trough will traverse the northern portion of the western US ridge today, bringing enhanced mid-level flow over the Cascades into western Washington and Oregon. Across southwestern Oregon, sustained winds around 15-20 mph will overlap relative humidity reductions to around 20-25 percent. Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible. Receptive fuels in this region are spotty, which leads to low confidence in including an area at this time. In the lee of the Bighorn Mountains in Wyoming, some Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions will be possible. Overall, sustained Elevated to Critical wind speeds appear brief and localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 09/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0113 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... A trough will traverse the northern portion of the western US ridge today, bringing enhanced mid-level flow over the Cascades into western Washington and Oregon. Across southwestern Oregon, sustained winds around 15-20 mph will overlap relative humidity reductions to around 20-25 percent. Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible. Receptive fuels in this region are spotty, which leads to low confidence in including an area at this time. In the lee of the Bighorn Mountains in Wyoming, some Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions will be possible. Overall, sustained Elevated to Critical wind speeds appear brief and localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 09/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0113 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... A trough will traverse the northern portion of the western US ridge today, bringing enhanced mid-level flow over the Cascades into western Washington and Oregon. Across southwestern Oregon, sustained winds around 15-20 mph will overlap relative humidity reductions to around 20-25 percent. Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible. Receptive fuels in this region are spotty, which leads to low confidence in including an area at this time. In the lee of the Bighorn Mountains in Wyoming, some Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions will be possible. Overall, sustained Elevated to Critical wind speeds appear brief and localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 09/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0113 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... A trough will traverse the northern portion of the western US ridge today, bringing enhanced mid-level flow over the Cascades into western Washington and Oregon. Across southwestern Oregon, sustained winds around 15-20 mph will overlap relative humidity reductions to around 20-25 percent. Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible. Receptive fuels in this region are spotty, which leads to low confidence in including an area at this time. In the lee of the Bighorn Mountains in Wyoming, some Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions will be possible. Overall, sustained Elevated to Critical wind speeds appear brief and localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 25 Sep 2024 14:57:15 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 25 Sep 2024 15:28:45 GMT

Issued at 900 AM CST Wed Sep 25 2024 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 251456 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm John Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024 900 AM CST Wed Sep 25 2024 John has reformed near the southwestern coast of Mexico. The CIMSS-UW satellite vorticity analyses show remnants of vorticity, likely associated with the mid-level circulation of John, have merged with a larger source of vorticity from the monsoon trough. Convection has gradually become better organized based on geostationary infrared and visibly imagery. An AMSR2 microwave pass at 0807 UTC showed curved banding near the surface, indicating a well-defined surface center. A Dvorak classification from TAFB has given John a 2.0/35 kt and that is the initial intensity for this advisory. The environmental conditions appear conducive for John to strengthen in the next day or so, as long as the circulation stays over water. Global models show the vertical wind shear remaining weak-to-moderate, ample mid-level moisture, and very warm sea surface temperatures. Statistical guidance even suggests there is an above average possibility for strong-to-rapid intensification. The latest NHC intensity forecast shows John reaching a peak intensity of 55 kt in 24 h, which is near the HCCA intensity aid and at the top of the guidance envelope. However, there is a chance John may become a hurricane prior to landfall. The tropical storm is meandering eastward in the monsoonal flow with an estimate motion of 80/2 kt. Models indicate that John will gradually turn towards the north later today and accelerate slightly towards the coast on Thursday. Regional and global models vary the timing of landfall, with the GFS and GFS-based hurricane models showing John at the coast by tomorrow evening and the ECMWF lingering offshore until Friday. The official track forecast calls for landfall along the southern and southwestern coast of Mexico on Thursday evening, however, there is uncertainty associated with this timing. A Hurricane Watch and Tropical Storm Warning have been issued by the government of Mexico for portions of the coast of southern Mexico and interests there should closely monitor future forecasts for updates. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Tropical Storm John will bring additional very heavy rainfall to coastal portions of southwest Mexico through Friday. The additional rainfall totals will be falling across areas that have received very heavy rainfall amounts over the past few days. This heavy rainfall will likely cause significant and catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides to the Mexican States of Guerrero, Oaxaca, coastal Chiapas, and coastal Michoaca. 2. John is forecast to strengthen before landfall, and a Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning have been issued for a portion of the coastline of southern and southwestern Mexico, where tropical storm conditions could begin later today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/1500Z 16.2N 101.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 26/0000Z 16.3N 101.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 26/1200Z 16.7N 101.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 27/0000Z 17.3N 101.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 27/1200Z 17.8N 101.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Bucci/R. Zelinsky

Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 25 2024 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 251455 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM JOHN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102024 1500 UTC WED SEP 25 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOHN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT L CARDENAS 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 5(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X 10(10) 14(24) 3(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) ZIHUATANEJO 50 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ZIHUATANEJO 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 15N 100W 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ACAPULCO 34 1 18(19) 9(28) 2(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) ACAPULCO 50 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BUCCI