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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes were needed with this update. ..Weinman.. 09/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1246 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low on Friday. High pressure will continue to build in across the western US with warming temperatures and some drying of fuels. Overall, high pressure will keep winds light and fire concerns low. Across the eastern US, remnants of Hurricane Helene will bring strong winds but also widespread heavy rainfall. Overall, no overlap of Elevated/Critical conditions with receptive fuels is expected on Friday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes were needed with this update. ..Weinman.. 09/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1246 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low on Friday. High pressure will continue to build in across the western US with warming temperatures and some drying of fuels. Overall, high pressure will keep winds light and fire concerns low. Across the eastern US, remnants of Hurricane Helene will bring strong winds but also widespread heavy rainfall. Overall, no overlap of Elevated/Critical conditions with receptive fuels is expected on Friday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes were needed with this update. ..Weinman.. 09/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1246 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low on Friday. High pressure will continue to build in across the western US with warming temperatures and some drying of fuels. Overall, high pressure will keep winds light and fire concerns low. Across the eastern US, remnants of Hurricane Helene will bring strong winds but also widespread heavy rainfall. Overall, no overlap of Elevated/Critical conditions with receptive fuels is expected on Friday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes were needed with this update. ..Weinman.. 09/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1246 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low on Friday. High pressure will continue to build in across the western US with warming temperatures and some drying of fuels. Overall, high pressure will keep winds light and fire concerns low. Across the eastern US, remnants of Hurricane Helene will bring strong winds but also widespread heavy rainfall. Overall, no overlap of Elevated/Critical conditions with receptive fuels is expected on Friday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes were needed with this update. ..Weinman.. 09/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1246 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low on Friday. High pressure will continue to build in across the western US with warming temperatures and some drying of fuels. Overall, high pressure will keep winds light and fire concerns low. Across the eastern US, remnants of Hurricane Helene will bring strong winds but also widespread heavy rainfall. Overall, no overlap of Elevated/Critical conditions with receptive fuels is expected on Friday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes were needed with this update. ..Weinman.. 09/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1246 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low on Friday. High pressure will continue to build in across the western US with warming temperatures and some drying of fuels. Overall, high pressure will keep winds light and fire concerns low. Across the eastern US, remnants of Hurricane Helene will bring strong winds but also widespread heavy rainfall. Overall, no overlap of Elevated/Critical conditions with receptive fuels is expected on Friday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes were needed with this update. ..Weinman.. 09/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1246 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low on Friday. High pressure will continue to build in across the western US with warming temperatures and some drying of fuels. Overall, high pressure will keep winds light and fire concerns low. Across the eastern US, remnants of Hurricane Helene will bring strong winds but also widespread heavy rainfall. Overall, no overlap of Elevated/Critical conditions with receptive fuels is expected on Friday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes were needed with this update. ..Weinman.. 09/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1246 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low on Friday. High pressure will continue to build in across the western US with warming temperatures and some drying of fuels. Overall, high pressure will keep winds light and fire concerns low. Across the eastern US, remnants of Hurricane Helene will bring strong winds but also widespread heavy rainfall. Overall, no overlap of Elevated/Critical conditions with receptive fuels is expected on Friday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes were needed with this update. ..Weinman.. 09/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1246 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low on Friday. High pressure will continue to build in across the western US with warming temperatures and some drying of fuels. Overall, high pressure will keep winds light and fire concerns low. Across the eastern US, remnants of Hurricane Helene will bring strong winds but also widespread heavy rainfall. Overall, no overlap of Elevated/Critical conditions with receptive fuels is expected on Friday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes were needed with this update. ..Weinman.. 09/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1246 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low on Friday. High pressure will continue to build in across the western US with warming temperatures and some drying of fuels. Overall, high pressure will keep winds light and fire concerns low. Across the eastern US, remnants of Hurricane Helene will bring strong winds but also widespread heavy rainfall. Overall, no overlap of Elevated/Critical conditions with receptive fuels is expected on Friday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes were needed with this update. ..Weinman.. 09/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1246 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low on Friday. High pressure will continue to build in across the western US with warming temperatures and some drying of fuels. Overall, high pressure will keep winds light and fire concerns low. Across the eastern US, remnants of Hurricane Helene will bring strong winds but also widespread heavy rainfall. Overall, no overlap of Elevated/Critical conditions with receptive fuels is expected on Friday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes were needed with this update. ..Weinman.. 09/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1246 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low on Friday. High pressure will continue to build in across the western US with warming temperatures and some drying of fuels. Overall, high pressure will keep winds light and fire concerns low. Across the eastern US, remnants of Hurricane Helene will bring strong winds but also widespread heavy rainfall. Overall, no overlap of Elevated/Critical conditions with receptive fuels is expected on Friday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes were needed with this update. ..Weinman.. 09/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1246 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low on Friday. High pressure will continue to build in across the western US with warming temperatures and some drying of fuels. Overall, high pressure will keep winds light and fire concerns low. Across the eastern US, remnants of Hurricane Helene will bring strong winds but also widespread heavy rainfall. Overall, no overlap of Elevated/Critical conditions with receptive fuels is expected on Friday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes were needed with this update. ..Weinman.. 09/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1246 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low on Friday. High pressure will continue to build in across the western US with warming temperatures and some drying of fuels. Overall, high pressure will keep winds light and fire concerns low. Across the eastern US, remnants of Hurricane Helene will bring strong winds but also widespread heavy rainfall. Overall, no overlap of Elevated/Critical conditions with receptive fuels is expected on Friday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 2116 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 684...685... FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA
Mesoscale Discussion 2116 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Areas affected...portions of eastern/southeastern Georgia Concerning...Tornado Watch 684...685... Valid 261752Z - 261845Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 684, 685 continues. SUMMARY...Low-topped supercells have shown increased low-level rotation over the last few hours across southeastern/eastern GA. The air mass in place is not overly favorable for tornadoes in the short term casting some uncertainty on the longevity of the tornado threat. A greater tornado risk should develop later today as Helene approaches. DISCUSSION...As of 1745 UTC, regional radar imagery shows a broad area of stratiform precipitation and embedded convective elements ongoing near a stationary front across potions of southern/eastern GA. North of the primary outer bands of TC Helene, substantial precipitation has been ongoing over the past 24. Despite strong low-level warm air advection, the precipitation has severely limited diurnal destabilization this far inland. With Buoyancy less than 250 J/kg of MUCAPE on SPC mesoanalysis, most of the convection is very low-topped and weak. Still, low-level hodographs have enlarged (and will continue to do so) through the day. This is supporting some tornado risk with the more robust cells in several weak bands. Eventually, a higher-theta E air mass should move in as the core of Helene approaches from the south later this afternoon/evening. This could support more buoyancy and a greater tornado risk. The primary uncertainty remains the limited buoyancy through the next several hours north of and west of Tornado Watch #685 and #684 respectively. A local extension of the active watches could be required to cover the more uncertain short-term tornado risk. However, the approach of Helene will eventually support a longer-fused tornado threat as low-level wind fields and buoyancy increase substantially. For now, the risk of tornadoes appears lower, though trends will continue to be monitored. ..Lyons/Mosier.. 09/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE... LAT...LON 31638231 31748395 31968427 32928364 33298289 33408240 33218227 32108210 31928211 31638231 Read more

MD 2115 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 684... FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...AND INTO EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA
Mesoscale Discussion 2115 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Areas affected...parts of central and eastern South Carolina...and into east-central and southeastern Georgia Concerning...Tornado Watch 684... Valid 261642Z - 261845Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 684 continues. SUMMARY...Potential for brief tornadoes will continue today. DISCUSSION...Occasional, brief spin-ups of low-level rotation have been observed via WSR-88D storm-relative velocity over the past couple of hours, across roughly the eastern half of WW 684. Weak circulations are currently most abundant with offshore, cellular convection just off the Georgia and southeastern South Carolina Coasts. With favorably veering low-level flow indicated, and expected to gradually increase through the day, occasional enhancements of low-level rotation within convective cells will pose ongoing risk for brief tornadoes across this area. ..Goss.. 09/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...JAX...FFC... LAT...LON 32298243 34348172 34678072 32747883 31308037 31438231 32298243 Read more

MD 2114 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 683... FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
Mesoscale Discussion 2114 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1132 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Areas affected...central and southern portions of the Florida Peninsula Concerning...Tornado Watch 683... Valid 261632Z - 261830Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 683 continues. SUMMARY...Local/brief tornado risk continues across the Florida Peninsula and adjacent coastal waters. DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a relative dearth of inland convection over central and southern Florida, despite the center of Helene only approximately 175 nm west of Naples Fl. With that said, additional/banded convection should affect the Peninsula over the next several hours as Helene moves slowly northward. Some hints of evolving/cellular convection are now noted over southern Florida from Lake Okeechobee south to the far southern Florida Coast, and cellular convection is also increasing near and just offshore from the Tampa Bay area. Given favorably strong/weakly veering low-level flow indicated across the area, risk for brief tornadoes continues with any cellular convection that evolves. ..Goss.. 09/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...KEY...TBW...JAX...TAE... LAT...LON 29108354 29608286 29418057 27697948 25727966 24868062 25278259 29108354 Read more

MD 2113 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 685... FOR CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 2113 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Areas affected...central portions of the Florida Panhandle Concerning...Tornado Watch 685... Valid 261620Z - 261815Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 685 continues. SUMMARY...Local risk for brief tornadoes will continue -- with greatest short-term potential over central portions of the Florida Panhandle. DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis reveals a nearly stationary north-south trough -- acting as a pseudo warm front and, as such, source of enhanced low-level vorticity -- extending from the Franklin/Gulf County vicinity on the Florida Coast, northward across far western Georgia and into the southern Appalachians. This boundary reflects the discontinuity between the moist/tropical airmass to the east, and the continental airmass to the west. Several/continued brief low-level spin-ups have been observed over the past couple of hours within this zone, and expect this local enhancement of tornado potential to continue over the next couple of hours, given increasingly favorably low-level flow and the nearly stationary character of this north-south boundary. ..Goss.. 09/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TAE... LAT...LON 29938539 30858521 30558448 29118399 28878488 29298555 29938539 Read more

Issued at 1200 PM CST Thu Sep 26 2024 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 261747 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane John Intermediate Advisory Number 15A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024 1200 PM CST Thu Sep 26 2024 ...JOHN STATIONARY... ...CATASTROPHIC LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1200 PM CST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.5N 102.7W ABOUT 50 MI...75 KM SW OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM W OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Tecpan de Galeana to Punta San Telmo A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * West of Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta Maldonado to east of Tecpan de Galeana * West of Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12 to 18 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 PM CST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane John was located near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 102.7 West. John is currently stationary, a slow northwestward motion towards the coast is anticipated later today. On the forecast track, the center of John is forecast to approach and move along the coast of southwestern Mexico or just inland on later today or tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is expected until the center moves along the coast or inland later today or tonight, which should cause John to quickly weaken to a depression Friday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb (28.91 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Through Friday, Hurricane John is expected to produce additional rainfall amounts of 10 to 20 inches across portions of the Mexican States of Guerrero and Michoacán. Additional rainfall o 2 to 4 inches with locally up to 6 inches expected across the Mexican States of Colima and western Oaxaca. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with John, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected along the coast within the hurricane warning area by tonight or early Friday. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength within a few hours. Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be even greater. Tropical storm conditions are currently occurring over portions of the coast within the tropical storm warning area, and should continue through today. SURF: Swells associated with John are forecast to continue to affect the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico through the week, with the potential for dangerous surf and rip currents. Please see local statements for more information. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Kelly

...JOHN STATIONARY... ...CATASTROPHIC LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... As of 12:00 PM CST Thu Sep 26 the center of John was located near 17.5, -102.7 with movement Stationary. The minimum central pressure was 979 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.