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MD 2120 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 684... FOR FROM JACKSONVILLE NORTHWARD ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS
Mesoscale Discussion 2120 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0539 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Areas affected...from Jacksonville northward across much of southeast Georgia and the Carolinas Concerning...Tornado Watch 684... Valid 262239Z - 270315Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 684 continues. SUMMARY...The risk of tornadoes is likely to increase/spread northward through tonight across southeast Georgia, eastern South Carolina and southeast North Carolina. An isolated strong tornado cannot be ruled out. DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows a warm front/boundary from southern GA to just off the SC Coast this evening. South of this boundary, deeper tropical moisture exists with upper 70s F to near 80 F dewpoints, and as such, MLCAPE near the coast is already near 1000 J/kg, with larger values over 1500 J/kg off the eastern FL Peninsula. As Hurricane Helene continues northward this evening, wind fields across the region will strengthen, with 850 mb winds increasing dramatically after about 03Z. As such, the surface warm front will move ashore into SC, with further destabilization over parts of southeast GA as well. Effective SRH of 300-500 m2/s2 coincident with the instability axis will be common this evening, with even stronger shear but lower instability along the western fringe of the warm sector. An initial band of convection currently extends into the Jacksonville FL area, and embedded cells could rotate an produce a brief tornado. Additional bands of storms are likely to develop this evening and tonight as the warm advection processes increase. Given such strong shear, an isolated strong tornado cannot be ruled out late. ..Jewell.. 09/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC... LAT...LON 31907960 31088013 30598032 30148070 30028098 30028114 30378167 30598227 30838293 31168292 31708266 32898197 33368153 33958106 34827946 34867847 34767791 34337752 34057749 33697764 32917843 32497896 31907960 Read more

WW 0686 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0686 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 686 TORNADO FL GA CW 262350Z - 271000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 686 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 750 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Florida Southern Georgia Coastal Waters * Effective this Thursday night and Friday morning from 750 PM until 600 AM EDT. * Primary threats include... Several tornadoes likely SUMMARY...Low-topped supercells in the outer rain bands of Hurricane Helene will continue to pose a threat for several tornadoes this evening and continuing into the overnight hours across much of Florida and southern Georgia. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles east and west of a line from 50 miles northwest of Waycross GA to 15 miles west southwest of Avon Park FL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 683...WW 684...WW 685... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 0 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 19050. ...Gleason Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Sep 26 22:15:23 UTC 2024.

MD 2119 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 685... FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA.
Mesoscale Discussion 2119 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0310 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Areas affected...portions of eastern Georgia and South Carolina. Concerning...Tornado Watch 685... Valid 262010Z - 262215Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 685 continues. SUMMARY...Bands of low-topped storms will continue to move onshore through the afternoon and evening. Low-level shear is supportive of a tornado risk and will continue to increase tonight. DISCUSSION...As of 20 UTC, outer rain bands associated with Hurricane Helene were continuing to move onshore across parts of eastern GA and SC. Low-level easterly flow is slowly increased supporting continued inland advection of a very warm and moist tropical air mass. Despite very poor mid-level lapse rates, weak to moderate buoyancy continues to support numerous convective elements moving onshore within these bands. Strong low-level shear (0-1km SRH 300-400 m2/s2) is in place and will continue to intensify this afternoon and evening as Helene approaches shore. Low-topped supercells will continue to pose a tornado risk as they move onshore. The risk may be focused near a weak frontal zone where low-level shear is enhanced further. ..Lyons.. 09/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC... LAT...LON 31718241 33378224 34138157 34428075 34498017 34287961 33727910 33147903 32138023 30628138 30618162 31038208 31718241 Read more

MD 2118 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 685... FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA
Mesoscale Discussion 2118 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0240 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Areas affected...portions of the Florida Panhandle and southwest Georgia Concerning...Tornado Watch 685... Valid 261940Z - 262145Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 685 continues. SUMMARY...The tornado risk continues across WW 684. The focus should remain close to a weak front/baroclinic zone across the FL Panhandle and Southwest GA. DISCUSSION...Ahead of Hurricane Helene located near 26.4N 85.0W or 195 MI...315 km SW of Tampa, the environment remains favorable for a few tornadoes. Inland advection of a very moist tropical air mass continues along and east of a weak stalled frontal boundary, with weak buoyancy (~1000 J/kg MUCAPE) supporting numerous low-topped convective elements in the outer bands. Low-level hodographs have also continued to expand with the TLH VAD showing strong low-level turning and 250-350 m2/s2 o-1km SRH. As low-topped offshore cells with low-level rotation move northwestward near Apalachicola, a few tornadoes are possible. The greatest focus for tornadoes appears to be along and east of the boundary, where low-level shear should be somewhat enhanced. However, as Helene approaches later this afternoon, low-level shear will continue to increase, supporting a risk for tornadoes across much of the watch area. ..Lyons.. 09/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX... LAT...LON 30698593 31928509 32148310 32108218 31738158 31178135 30728161 30378228 29378338 29008432 28838509 28888546 29358589 30698593 Read more

MD 2117 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 683... FOR PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA
Mesoscale Discussion 2117 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Areas affected...portions of the western Florida Peninsula Concerning...Tornado Watch 683... Valid 261914Z - 262115Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 683 continues. SUMMARY...The tornado risk associated with low-topped supercells in the bands of Helene continues across all of WW683. The greatest risk will likely be focused over the western half of FL where low-level shear is stronger. DISCUSSION...As of 1915 UTC, the center of Hurricane Helene was located near 26.4N 85.0W or about 195 MI...315 KM SW of Tampa FL per the latest NHC information. As the outer bands of Helene continue to move over the FL peninsula, cloud breaks between the bands were supporting heating and weak destabilization. Several bands of showers and low-topped thunderstorms were located off the western Coast, with a less organized band over the central and eastern parts of FL. Low-level shear (Tampa VAD 350-450 m2/s2 0-1km SRH) is strongest to the west, closer to the center of the circulation. However, low-level shear remains supportive of tornadoes over much of FL. Given favorably strong/weakly veering low-level flow indicated across the entire area, risk for brief tornadoes continues with any cellular convection that evolves. ..Lyons.. 09/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE... LAT...LON 27978319 28978350 29498358 29578306 29238242 28548173 27968125 27438098 26878090 26388099 26078122 25898149 25848171 25988205 26208240 26588277 27978319 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0406 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 041200Z Along the northern periphery of an expansive midlevel anticyclone centered over the Four Corners vicinity, a midlevel trough -- accompanied by strong deep-layer westerly flow -- will track eastward from the Pacific Northwest across the northern Plains/Upper MS Valley through Day 6/Tuesday. Thereafter, an additional midlevel trough will advance eastward across the Northwest. On Day 4/Sunday, strong westerly flow accompanying the midlevel trough will cross the Northwest, promoting locally dry/windy conditions along/east of the Cascades. While this could favor elevated to perhaps locally critical fire-weather conditions, cool post-frontal surface temperatures limits confidence in the overlap of strong winds and warm/dry conditions. Farther east, lee troughing over the High Plains will favor dry/breezy conditions over the central Rockies and Plains. Similarly, confidence in the overlap of the strongest winds and low RH is currently too low to add Critical probabilities at this time. By Day 5/Monday, a swath of strong post-frontal surface winds will overspread the northern/central Plains, with an associated increase in fire-weather concerns where fuels are dry. 40-percent Critical probabilities have been added where confidence is highest in the overlap of strong winds and low RH. Thereafter, the strong westerly flow aloft across the northern CONUS could support additional fire-weather concerns -- especially across portions of the central Rockies/Plains. However, the details are unclear at this time. ..Weinman.. 09/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0406 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 041200Z Along the northern periphery of an expansive midlevel anticyclone centered over the Four Corners vicinity, a midlevel trough -- accompanied by strong deep-layer westerly flow -- will track eastward from the Pacific Northwest across the northern Plains/Upper MS Valley through Day 6/Tuesday. Thereafter, an additional midlevel trough will advance eastward across the Northwest. On Day 4/Sunday, strong westerly flow accompanying the midlevel trough will cross the Northwest, promoting locally dry/windy conditions along/east of the Cascades. While this could favor elevated to perhaps locally critical fire-weather conditions, cool post-frontal surface temperatures limits confidence in the overlap of strong winds and warm/dry conditions. Farther east, lee troughing over the High Plains will favor dry/breezy conditions over the central Rockies and Plains. Similarly, confidence in the overlap of the strongest winds and low RH is currently too low to add Critical probabilities at this time. By Day 5/Monday, a swath of strong post-frontal surface winds will overspread the northern/central Plains, with an associated increase in fire-weather concerns where fuels are dry. 40-percent Critical probabilities have been added where confidence is highest in the overlap of strong winds and low RH. Thereafter, the strong westerly flow aloft across the northern CONUS could support additional fire-weather concerns -- especially across portions of the central Rockies/Plains. However, the details are unclear at this time. ..Weinman.. 09/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0406 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 041200Z Along the northern periphery of an expansive midlevel anticyclone centered over the Four Corners vicinity, a midlevel trough -- accompanied by strong deep-layer westerly flow -- will track eastward from the Pacific Northwest across the northern Plains/Upper MS Valley through Day 6/Tuesday. Thereafter, an additional midlevel trough will advance eastward across the Northwest. On Day 4/Sunday, strong westerly flow accompanying the midlevel trough will cross the Northwest, promoting locally dry/windy conditions along/east of the Cascades. While this could favor elevated to perhaps locally critical fire-weather conditions, cool post-frontal surface temperatures limits confidence in the overlap of strong winds and warm/dry conditions. Farther east, lee troughing over the High Plains will favor dry/breezy conditions over the central Rockies and Plains. Similarly, confidence in the overlap of the strongest winds and low RH is currently too low to add Critical probabilities at this time. By Day 5/Monday, a swath of strong post-frontal surface winds will overspread the northern/central Plains, with an associated increase in fire-weather concerns where fuels are dry. 40-percent Critical probabilities have been added where confidence is highest in the overlap of strong winds and low RH. Thereafter, the strong westerly flow aloft across the northern CONUS could support additional fire-weather concerns -- especially across portions of the central Rockies/Plains. However, the details are unclear at this time. ..Weinman.. 09/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0406 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 041200Z Along the northern periphery of an expansive midlevel anticyclone centered over the Four Corners vicinity, a midlevel trough -- accompanied by strong deep-layer westerly flow -- will track eastward from the Pacific Northwest across the northern Plains/Upper MS Valley through Day 6/Tuesday. Thereafter, an additional midlevel trough will advance eastward across the Northwest. On Day 4/Sunday, strong westerly flow accompanying the midlevel trough will cross the Northwest, promoting locally dry/windy conditions along/east of the Cascades. While this could favor elevated to perhaps locally critical fire-weather conditions, cool post-frontal surface temperatures limits confidence in the overlap of strong winds and warm/dry conditions. Farther east, lee troughing over the High Plains will favor dry/breezy conditions over the central Rockies and Plains. Similarly, confidence in the overlap of the strongest winds and low RH is currently too low to add Critical probabilities at this time. By Day 5/Monday, a swath of strong post-frontal surface winds will overspread the northern/central Plains, with an associated increase in fire-weather concerns where fuels are dry. 40-percent Critical probabilities have been added where confidence is highest in the overlap of strong winds and low RH. Thereafter, the strong westerly flow aloft across the northern CONUS could support additional fire-weather concerns -- especially across portions of the central Rockies/Plains. However, the details are unclear at this time. ..Weinman.. 09/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0406 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 041200Z Along the northern periphery of an expansive midlevel anticyclone centered over the Four Corners vicinity, a midlevel trough -- accompanied by strong deep-layer westerly flow -- will track eastward from the Pacific Northwest across the northern Plains/Upper MS Valley through Day 6/Tuesday. Thereafter, an additional midlevel trough will advance eastward across the Northwest. On Day 4/Sunday, strong westerly flow accompanying the midlevel trough will cross the Northwest, promoting locally dry/windy conditions along/east of the Cascades. While this could favor elevated to perhaps locally critical fire-weather conditions, cool post-frontal surface temperatures limits confidence in the overlap of strong winds and warm/dry conditions. Farther east, lee troughing over the High Plains will favor dry/breezy conditions over the central Rockies and Plains. Similarly, confidence in the overlap of the strongest winds and low RH is currently too low to add Critical probabilities at this time. By Day 5/Monday, a swath of strong post-frontal surface winds will overspread the northern/central Plains, with an associated increase in fire-weather concerns where fuels are dry. 40-percent Critical probabilities have been added where confidence is highest in the overlap of strong winds and low RH. Thereafter, the strong westerly flow aloft across the northern CONUS could support additional fire-weather concerns -- especially across portions of the central Rockies/Plains. However, the details are unclear at this time. ..Weinman.. 09/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0406 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 041200Z Along the northern periphery of an expansive midlevel anticyclone centered over the Four Corners vicinity, a midlevel trough -- accompanied by strong deep-layer westerly flow -- will track eastward from the Pacific Northwest across the northern Plains/Upper MS Valley through Day 6/Tuesday. Thereafter, an additional midlevel trough will advance eastward across the Northwest. On Day 4/Sunday, strong westerly flow accompanying the midlevel trough will cross the Northwest, promoting locally dry/windy conditions along/east of the Cascades. While this could favor elevated to perhaps locally critical fire-weather conditions, cool post-frontal surface temperatures limits confidence in the overlap of strong winds and warm/dry conditions. Farther east, lee troughing over the High Plains will favor dry/breezy conditions over the central Rockies and Plains. Similarly, confidence in the overlap of the strongest winds and low RH is currently too low to add Critical probabilities at this time. By Day 5/Monday, a swath of strong post-frontal surface winds will overspread the northern/central Plains, with an associated increase in fire-weather concerns where fuels are dry. 40-percent Critical probabilities have been added where confidence is highest in the overlap of strong winds and low RH. Thereafter, the strong westerly flow aloft across the northern CONUS could support additional fire-weather concerns -- especially across portions of the central Rockies/Plains. However, the details are unclear at this time. ..Weinman.. 09/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0406 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 041200Z Along the northern periphery of an expansive midlevel anticyclone centered over the Four Corners vicinity, a midlevel trough -- accompanied by strong deep-layer westerly flow -- will track eastward from the Pacific Northwest across the northern Plains/Upper MS Valley through Day 6/Tuesday. Thereafter, an additional midlevel trough will advance eastward across the Northwest. On Day 4/Sunday, strong westerly flow accompanying the midlevel trough will cross the Northwest, promoting locally dry/windy conditions along/east of the Cascades. While this could favor elevated to perhaps locally critical fire-weather conditions, cool post-frontal surface temperatures limits confidence in the overlap of strong winds and warm/dry conditions. Farther east, lee troughing over the High Plains will favor dry/breezy conditions over the central Rockies and Plains. Similarly, confidence in the overlap of the strongest winds and low RH is currently too low to add Critical probabilities at this time. By Day 5/Monday, a swath of strong post-frontal surface winds will overspread the northern/central Plains, with an associated increase in fire-weather concerns where fuels are dry. 40-percent Critical probabilities have been added where confidence is highest in the overlap of strong winds and low RH. Thereafter, the strong westerly flow aloft across the northern CONUS could support additional fire-weather concerns -- especially across portions of the central Rockies/Plains. However, the details are unclear at this time. ..Weinman.. 09/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0406 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 041200Z Along the northern periphery of an expansive midlevel anticyclone centered over the Four Corners vicinity, a midlevel trough -- accompanied by strong deep-layer westerly flow -- will track eastward from the Pacific Northwest across the northern Plains/Upper MS Valley through Day 6/Tuesday. Thereafter, an additional midlevel trough will advance eastward across the Northwest. On Day 4/Sunday, strong westerly flow accompanying the midlevel trough will cross the Northwest, promoting locally dry/windy conditions along/east of the Cascades. While this could favor elevated to perhaps locally critical fire-weather conditions, cool post-frontal surface temperatures limits confidence in the overlap of strong winds and warm/dry conditions. Farther east, lee troughing over the High Plains will favor dry/breezy conditions over the central Rockies and Plains. Similarly, confidence in the overlap of the strongest winds and low RH is currently too low to add Critical probabilities at this time. By Day 5/Monday, a swath of strong post-frontal surface winds will overspread the northern/central Plains, with an associated increase in fire-weather concerns where fuels are dry. 40-percent Critical probabilities have been added where confidence is highest in the overlap of strong winds and low RH. Thereafter, the strong westerly flow aloft across the northern CONUS could support additional fire-weather concerns -- especially across portions of the central Rockies/Plains. However, the details are unclear at this time. ..Weinman.. 09/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0406 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 041200Z Along the northern periphery of an expansive midlevel anticyclone centered over the Four Corners vicinity, a midlevel trough -- accompanied by strong deep-layer westerly flow -- will track eastward from the Pacific Northwest across the northern Plains/Upper MS Valley through Day 6/Tuesday. Thereafter, an additional midlevel trough will advance eastward across the Northwest. On Day 4/Sunday, strong westerly flow accompanying the midlevel trough will cross the Northwest, promoting locally dry/windy conditions along/east of the Cascades. While this could favor elevated to perhaps locally critical fire-weather conditions, cool post-frontal surface temperatures limits confidence in the overlap of strong winds and warm/dry conditions. Farther east, lee troughing over the High Plains will favor dry/breezy conditions over the central Rockies and Plains. Similarly, confidence in the overlap of the strongest winds and low RH is currently too low to add Critical probabilities at this time. By Day 5/Monday, a swath of strong post-frontal surface winds will overspread the northern/central Plains, with an associated increase in fire-weather concerns where fuels are dry. 40-percent Critical probabilities have been added where confidence is highest in the overlap of strong winds and low RH. Thereafter, the strong westerly flow aloft across the northern CONUS could support additional fire-weather concerns -- especially across portions of the central Rockies/Plains. However, the details are unclear at this time. ..Weinman.. 09/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0406 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 041200Z Along the northern periphery of an expansive midlevel anticyclone centered over the Four Corners vicinity, a midlevel trough -- accompanied by strong deep-layer westerly flow -- will track eastward from the Pacific Northwest across the northern Plains/Upper MS Valley through Day 6/Tuesday. Thereafter, an additional midlevel trough will advance eastward across the Northwest. On Day 4/Sunday, strong westerly flow accompanying the midlevel trough will cross the Northwest, promoting locally dry/windy conditions along/east of the Cascades. While this could favor elevated to perhaps locally critical fire-weather conditions, cool post-frontal surface temperatures limits confidence in the overlap of strong winds and warm/dry conditions. Farther east, lee troughing over the High Plains will favor dry/breezy conditions over the central Rockies and Plains. Similarly, confidence in the overlap of the strongest winds and low RH is currently too low to add Critical probabilities at this time. By Day 5/Monday, a swath of strong post-frontal surface winds will overspread the northern/central Plains, with an associated increase in fire-weather concerns where fuels are dry. 40-percent Critical probabilities have been added where confidence is highest in the overlap of strong winds and low RH. Thereafter, the strong westerly flow aloft across the northern CONUS could support additional fire-weather concerns -- especially across portions of the central Rockies/Plains. However, the details are unclear at this time. ..Weinman.. 09/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0406 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 041200Z Along the northern periphery of an expansive midlevel anticyclone centered over the Four Corners vicinity, a midlevel trough -- accompanied by strong deep-layer westerly flow -- will track eastward from the Pacific Northwest across the northern Plains/Upper MS Valley through Day 6/Tuesday. Thereafter, an additional midlevel trough will advance eastward across the Northwest. On Day 4/Sunday, strong westerly flow accompanying the midlevel trough will cross the Northwest, promoting locally dry/windy conditions along/east of the Cascades. While this could favor elevated to perhaps locally critical fire-weather conditions, cool post-frontal surface temperatures limits confidence in the overlap of strong winds and warm/dry conditions. Farther east, lee troughing over the High Plains will favor dry/breezy conditions over the central Rockies and Plains. Similarly, confidence in the overlap of the strongest winds and low RH is currently too low to add Critical probabilities at this time. By Day 5/Monday, a swath of strong post-frontal surface winds will overspread the northern/central Plains, with an associated increase in fire-weather concerns where fuels are dry. 40-percent Critical probabilities have been added where confidence is highest in the overlap of strong winds and low RH. Thereafter, the strong westerly flow aloft across the northern CONUS could support additional fire-weather concerns -- especially across portions of the central Rockies/Plains. However, the details are unclear at this time. ..Weinman.. 09/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0406 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 041200Z Along the northern periphery of an expansive midlevel anticyclone centered over the Four Corners vicinity, a midlevel trough -- accompanied by strong deep-layer westerly flow -- will track eastward from the Pacific Northwest across the northern Plains/Upper MS Valley through Day 6/Tuesday. Thereafter, an additional midlevel trough will advance eastward across the Northwest. On Day 4/Sunday, strong westerly flow accompanying the midlevel trough will cross the Northwest, promoting locally dry/windy conditions along/east of the Cascades. While this could favor elevated to perhaps locally critical fire-weather conditions, cool post-frontal surface temperatures limits confidence in the overlap of strong winds and warm/dry conditions. Farther east, lee troughing over the High Plains will favor dry/breezy conditions over the central Rockies and Plains. Similarly, confidence in the overlap of the strongest winds and low RH is currently too low to add Critical probabilities at this time. By Day 5/Monday, a swath of strong post-frontal surface winds will overspread the northern/central Plains, with an associated increase in fire-weather concerns where fuels are dry. 40-percent Critical probabilities have been added where confidence is highest in the overlap of strong winds and low RH. Thereafter, the strong westerly flow aloft across the northern CONUS could support additional fire-weather concerns -- especially across portions of the central Rockies/Plains. However, the details are unclear at this time. ..Weinman.. 09/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0406 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 041200Z Along the northern periphery of an expansive midlevel anticyclone centered over the Four Corners vicinity, a midlevel trough -- accompanied by strong deep-layer westerly flow -- will track eastward from the Pacific Northwest across the northern Plains/Upper MS Valley through Day 6/Tuesday. Thereafter, an additional midlevel trough will advance eastward across the Northwest. On Day 4/Sunday, strong westerly flow accompanying the midlevel trough will cross the Northwest, promoting locally dry/windy conditions along/east of the Cascades. While this could favor elevated to perhaps locally critical fire-weather conditions, cool post-frontal surface temperatures limits confidence in the overlap of strong winds and warm/dry conditions. Farther east, lee troughing over the High Plains will favor dry/breezy conditions over the central Rockies and Plains. Similarly, confidence in the overlap of the strongest winds and low RH is currently too low to add Critical probabilities at this time. By Day 5/Monday, a swath of strong post-frontal surface winds will overspread the northern/central Plains, with an associated increase in fire-weather concerns where fuels are dry. 40-percent Critical probabilities have been added where confidence is highest in the overlap of strong winds and low RH. Thereafter, the strong westerly flow aloft across the northern CONUS could support additional fire-weather concerns -- especially across portions of the central Rockies/Plains. However, the details are unclear at this time. ..Weinman.. 09/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more