SPC Sep 25, 2024 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

9 months 3 weeks ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO THE CAROLINAS AND SOUTHERN VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... A risk for a couple of tornadoes and damaging thunderstorm wind gusts exists from the central Appalachians into the Carolinas and southern Virginia. ...Synopsis... Upper ridging centered over the Southwest/northern Mexico is forecast to remain in place on Friday, with some modest northward expansion possible. To the east of this ridging, complex interaction is expected between a cold-core upper low initially over the Mid-South and Tropical Cyclone Helene, which will likely be centered over northern GA. Strong westerlies will remain along and north of the US/Canada border, and stable conditions will persist west of the Mississippi River. As such, tornadoes and strong convective gusts associated with Helene will constitute the only severe risk across the CONUS on Friday. ...Central Appalachians into the Carolinas and southern VA... Strong low to mid level flow will persist throughout the eastern periphery of Helene on Friday, over an area characterized by low to mid 70s dewpoints and modest buoyancy. This modest buoyancy could support some deeper convective cores, particularly within any rainbands. The combination of deeper, more persistent updrafts with the strong low to mid level flow could support strong, convectively augmented gusts and/or a few tornadoes. ..Mosier.. 09/25/2024 Read more

SPC Sep 25, 2024 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

9 months 3 weeks ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO THE CAROLINAS AND SOUTHERN VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... A risk for a couple of tornadoes and damaging thunderstorm wind gusts exists from the central Appalachians into the Carolinas and southern Virginia. ...Synopsis... Upper ridging centered over the Southwest/northern Mexico is forecast to remain in place on Friday, with some modest northward expansion possible. To the east of this ridging, complex interaction is expected between a cold-core upper low initially over the Mid-South and Tropical Cyclone Helene, which will likely be centered over northern GA. Strong westerlies will remain along and north of the US/Canada border, and stable conditions will persist west of the Mississippi River. As such, tornadoes and strong convective gusts associated with Helene will constitute the only severe risk across the CONUS on Friday. ...Central Appalachians into the Carolinas and southern VA... Strong low to mid level flow will persist throughout the eastern periphery of Helene on Friday, over an area characterized by low to mid 70s dewpoints and modest buoyancy. This modest buoyancy could support some deeper convective cores, particularly within any rainbands. The combination of deeper, more persistent updrafts with the strong low to mid level flow could support strong, convectively augmented gusts and/or a few tornadoes. ..Mosier.. 09/25/2024 Read more

SPC Sep 25, 2024 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

9 months 3 weeks ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO THE CAROLINAS AND SOUTHERN VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... A risk for a couple of tornadoes and damaging thunderstorm wind gusts exists from the central Appalachians into the Carolinas and southern Virginia. ...Synopsis... Upper ridging centered over the Southwest/northern Mexico is forecast to remain in place on Friday, with some modest northward expansion possible. To the east of this ridging, complex interaction is expected between a cold-core upper low initially over the Mid-South and Tropical Cyclone Helene, which will likely be centered over northern GA. Strong westerlies will remain along and north of the US/Canada border, and stable conditions will persist west of the Mississippi River. As such, tornadoes and strong convective gusts associated with Helene will constitute the only severe risk across the CONUS on Friday. ...Central Appalachians into the Carolinas and southern VA... Strong low to mid level flow will persist throughout the eastern periphery of Helene on Friday, over an area characterized by low to mid 70s dewpoints and modest buoyancy. This modest buoyancy could support some deeper convective cores, particularly within any rainbands. The combination of deeper, more persistent updrafts with the strong low to mid level flow could support strong, convectively augmented gusts and/or a few tornadoes. ..Mosier.. 09/25/2024 Read more

SPC Sep 25, 2024 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

9 months 3 weeks ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO THE CAROLINAS AND SOUTHERN VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... A risk for a couple of tornadoes and damaging thunderstorm wind gusts exists from the central Appalachians into the Carolinas and southern Virginia. ...Synopsis... Upper ridging centered over the Southwest/northern Mexico is forecast to remain in place on Friday, with some modest northward expansion possible. To the east of this ridging, complex interaction is expected between a cold-core upper low initially over the Mid-South and Tropical Cyclone Helene, which will likely be centered over northern GA. Strong westerlies will remain along and north of the US/Canada border, and stable conditions will persist west of the Mississippi River. As such, tornadoes and strong convective gusts associated with Helene will constitute the only severe risk across the CONUS on Friday. ...Central Appalachians into the Carolinas and southern VA... Strong low to mid level flow will persist throughout the eastern periphery of Helene on Friday, over an area characterized by low to mid 70s dewpoints and modest buoyancy. This modest buoyancy could support some deeper convective cores, particularly within any rainbands. The combination of deeper, more persistent updrafts with the strong low to mid level flow could support strong, convectively augmented gusts and/or a few tornadoes. ..Mosier.. 09/25/2024 Read more

SPC Sep 25, 2024 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

9 months 3 weeks ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO THE CAROLINAS AND SOUTHERN VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... A risk for a couple of tornadoes and damaging thunderstorm wind gusts exists from the central Appalachians into the Carolinas and southern Virginia. ...Synopsis... Upper ridging centered over the Southwest/northern Mexico is forecast to remain in place on Friday, with some modest northward expansion possible. To the east of this ridging, complex interaction is expected between a cold-core upper low initially over the Mid-South and Tropical Cyclone Helene, which will likely be centered over northern GA. Strong westerlies will remain along and north of the US/Canada border, and stable conditions will persist west of the Mississippi River. As such, tornadoes and strong convective gusts associated with Helene will constitute the only severe risk across the CONUS on Friday. ...Central Appalachians into the Carolinas and southern VA... Strong low to mid level flow will persist throughout the eastern periphery of Helene on Friday, over an area characterized by low to mid 70s dewpoints and modest buoyancy. This modest buoyancy could support some deeper convective cores, particularly within any rainbands. The combination of deeper, more persistent updrafts with the strong low to mid level flow could support strong, convectively augmented gusts and/or a few tornadoes. ..Mosier.. 09/25/2024 Read more

SPC Sep 25, 2024 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

9 months 3 weeks ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO THE CAROLINAS AND SOUTHERN VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... A risk for a couple of tornadoes and damaging thunderstorm wind gusts exists from the central Appalachians into the Carolinas and southern Virginia. ...Synopsis... Upper ridging centered over the Southwest/northern Mexico is forecast to remain in place on Friday, with some modest northward expansion possible. To the east of this ridging, complex interaction is expected between a cold-core upper low initially over the Mid-South and Tropical Cyclone Helene, which will likely be centered over northern GA. Strong westerlies will remain along and north of the US/Canada border, and stable conditions will persist west of the Mississippi River. As such, tornadoes and strong convective gusts associated with Helene will constitute the only severe risk across the CONUS on Friday. ...Central Appalachians into the Carolinas and southern VA... Strong low to mid level flow will persist throughout the eastern periphery of Helene on Friday, over an area characterized by low to mid 70s dewpoints and modest buoyancy. This modest buoyancy could support some deeper convective cores, particularly within any rainbands. The combination of deeper, more persistent updrafts with the strong low to mid level flow could support strong, convectively augmented gusts and/or a few tornadoes. ..Mosier.. 09/25/2024 Read more

SPC Sep 25, 2024 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

9 months 3 weeks ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO THE CAROLINAS AND SOUTHERN VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... A risk for a couple of tornadoes and damaging thunderstorm wind gusts exists from the central Appalachians into the Carolinas and southern Virginia. ...Synopsis... Upper ridging centered over the Southwest/northern Mexico is forecast to remain in place on Friday, with some modest northward expansion possible. To the east of this ridging, complex interaction is expected between a cold-core upper low initially over the Mid-South and Tropical Cyclone Helene, which will likely be centered over northern GA. Strong westerlies will remain along and north of the US/Canada border, and stable conditions will persist west of the Mississippi River. As such, tornadoes and strong convective gusts associated with Helene will constitute the only severe risk across the CONUS on Friday. ...Central Appalachians into the Carolinas and southern VA... Strong low to mid level flow will persist throughout the eastern periphery of Helene on Friday, over an area characterized by low to mid 70s dewpoints and modest buoyancy. This modest buoyancy could support some deeper convective cores, particularly within any rainbands. The combination of deeper, more persistent updrafts with the strong low to mid level flow could support strong, convectively augmented gusts and/or a few tornadoes. ..Mosier.. 09/25/2024 Read more

SPC Sep 25, 2024 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

9 months 3 weeks ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO THE CAROLINAS AND SOUTHERN VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... A risk for a couple of tornadoes and damaging thunderstorm wind gusts exists from the central Appalachians into the Carolinas and southern Virginia. ...Synopsis... Upper ridging centered over the Southwest/northern Mexico is forecast to remain in place on Friday, with some modest northward expansion possible. To the east of this ridging, complex interaction is expected between a cold-core upper low initially over the Mid-South and Tropical Cyclone Helene, which will likely be centered over northern GA. Strong westerlies will remain along and north of the US/Canada border, and stable conditions will persist west of the Mississippi River. As such, tornadoes and strong convective gusts associated with Helene will constitute the only severe risk across the CONUS on Friday. ...Central Appalachians into the Carolinas and southern VA... Strong low to mid level flow will persist throughout the eastern periphery of Helene on Friday, over an area characterized by low to mid 70s dewpoints and modest buoyancy. This modest buoyancy could support some deeper convective cores, particularly within any rainbands. The combination of deeper, more persistent updrafts with the strong low to mid level flow could support strong, convectively augmented gusts and/or a few tornadoes. ..Mosier.. 09/25/2024 Read more

Tropical Storm John Public Advisory Number 11A

9 months 3 weeks ago
Issued at 1200 PM CST Wed Sep 25 2024 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 251752 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm John Intermediate Advisory Number 11A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024 1200 PM CST Wed Sep 25 2024 ...JOHN STRENGTHENING... ...HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1200 PM CST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.5N 101.4W ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM WSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...5 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Acapulco to Zihuatanejo A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta Maldonado to Lazaro Cardenas A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 12 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 PM CST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm John was located near latitude 16.5 North, longitude 101.4 West. John is moving toward the north-northeast near 3 mph (5 km/h). A slow motion to the north is expected later today. On the forecast track, the center of the system is forecast to approach the southern and southwestern coast of Mexico on early Thursday and be inland on Friday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. John is forecast to strengthen as it approaches the coast of southern Mexico on Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Through Friday, Tropical Storm John is expected to produce additional rainfall amounts of 10 to 20 inches with isolated totals around 30 inches across the Mexican States of Guerrero, Oaxaca, coastal Chiapas, and coastal Michoaca. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm John, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible along the coast within the hurricane watch area Thursday. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength as early as tonight, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the tropical storm warning area as early as tonight. SURF: Swells associated with John are forecast to continue to affect the coast of southern Mexico through the week, with the potential for dangerous surf and rip currents. Please see local statements for more information. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Bucci/R. Zelinsky
NHC Webmaster

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

9 months 3 weeks ago

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 251743
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Wed Sep 25 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
re-formed Tropical Storm John, located just south of southwestern
Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm John are issued under WMO
header WTPZ35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP5.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm John are issued under
WMO header WTPZ25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP5.

$$
Forecaster Kelly
NHC Webmaster

SPC Sep 25, 2024 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

9 months 3 weeks ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Tropical Cyclone Helene is forecast to move inland across northern Florida and Georgia on Thursday. A risk for tropical-cyclone tornadoes will accompany this system, particularly from the central Florida Peninsula into southeast Georgia and parts of the Midlands and Low Country of South Carolina. ...FL/GA/SC/southeast NC... Latest forecast track guidance from the National Hurricane Center has Hurricane Helene over the eastern Gulf of Mexico (about 225 miles west-southwest of SRQ) early Thursday morning. This system is forecast to continue northward and make landfall in the FL Big Bend vicinity just east of AAF Thursday evening. As the storm moves northward throughout the day, the strong wind field accompanying it will expand northward as well, beginning over the FL Peninsula Thursday morning before reaching into GA during the afternoon and into SC by Thursday evening. These increased winds will result in long, looping hodographs with more than enough low-level shear to support tornadogenesis. As such, buoyancy-related updraft strength/persistence will be the primary factor determining thunderstorm severity and overall tornado potential and frequency. Initial rainbands will likely be impacting the west coast of the FL Peninsula at the beginning of the period before gradually spreading northward/northeastward throughout the day as the system moves northward. Tornadoes are most likely within the low-topped convection within these rainbands, so a low-probability tornado risk will begin early across the FL Peninsula before spreading northeastward over time. A relatively greater tornado risk is anticipated later, with best overlap between these rainbands and the strong low/mid-level flow beginning over FL during the late afternoon and moving into GA and SC during the evening and overnight. Highest tornado potential is still anticipated across coastal GA and SC Low Country after 00Z Friday. ...Southern New England/Hudson Valley... A compact upper low is forecast to progress eastward across southern Quebec and adjacent portions of New England on Thursday. Strong large-scale forcing for ascent will aid in the development of a convective line during the afternoon from southern New England into the Hudson Valley. Buoyancy will be modest, but enhanced mid-level flow through the base of the upper low will support moderate to strong deep-layer vertical shear. Consequently, a few stronger storms capable of damaging gusts are possible. Overall coverage of damaging gusts is currently expected to remain below 5%. ..Mosier.. 09/25/2024 Read more

SPC Sep 25, 2024 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

9 months 3 weeks ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Tropical Cyclone Helene is forecast to move inland across northern Florida and Georgia on Thursday. A risk for tropical-cyclone tornadoes will accompany this system, particularly from the central Florida Peninsula into southeast Georgia and parts of the Midlands and Low Country of South Carolina. ...FL/GA/SC/southeast NC... Latest forecast track guidance from the National Hurricane Center has Hurricane Helene over the eastern Gulf of Mexico (about 225 miles west-southwest of SRQ) early Thursday morning. This system is forecast to continue northward and make landfall in the FL Big Bend vicinity just east of AAF Thursday evening. As the storm moves northward throughout the day, the strong wind field accompanying it will expand northward as well, beginning over the FL Peninsula Thursday morning before reaching into GA during the afternoon and into SC by Thursday evening. These increased winds will result in long, looping hodographs with more than enough low-level shear to support tornadogenesis. As such, buoyancy-related updraft strength/persistence will be the primary factor determining thunderstorm severity and overall tornado potential and frequency. Initial rainbands will likely be impacting the west coast of the FL Peninsula at the beginning of the period before gradually spreading northward/northeastward throughout the day as the system moves northward. Tornadoes are most likely within the low-topped convection within these rainbands, so a low-probability tornado risk will begin early across the FL Peninsula before spreading northeastward over time. A relatively greater tornado risk is anticipated later, with best overlap between these rainbands and the strong low/mid-level flow beginning over FL during the late afternoon and moving into GA and SC during the evening and overnight. Highest tornado potential is still anticipated across coastal GA and SC Low Country after 00Z Friday. ...Southern New England/Hudson Valley... A compact upper low is forecast to progress eastward across southern Quebec and adjacent portions of New England on Thursday. Strong large-scale forcing for ascent will aid in the development of a convective line during the afternoon from southern New England into the Hudson Valley. Buoyancy will be modest, but enhanced mid-level flow through the base of the upper low will support moderate to strong deep-layer vertical shear. Consequently, a few stronger storms capable of damaging gusts are possible. Overall coverage of damaging gusts is currently expected to remain below 5%. ..Mosier.. 09/25/2024 Read more

SPC Sep 25, 2024 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

9 months 3 weeks ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Tropical Cyclone Helene is forecast to move inland across northern Florida and Georgia on Thursday. A risk for tropical-cyclone tornadoes will accompany this system, particularly from the central Florida Peninsula into southeast Georgia and parts of the Midlands and Low Country of South Carolina. ...FL/GA/SC/southeast NC... Latest forecast track guidance from the National Hurricane Center has Hurricane Helene over the eastern Gulf of Mexico (about 225 miles west-southwest of SRQ) early Thursday morning. This system is forecast to continue northward and make landfall in the FL Big Bend vicinity just east of AAF Thursday evening. As the storm moves northward throughout the day, the strong wind field accompanying it will expand northward as well, beginning over the FL Peninsula Thursday morning before reaching into GA during the afternoon and into SC by Thursday evening. These increased winds will result in long, looping hodographs with more than enough low-level shear to support tornadogenesis. As such, buoyancy-related updraft strength/persistence will be the primary factor determining thunderstorm severity and overall tornado potential and frequency. Initial rainbands will likely be impacting the west coast of the FL Peninsula at the beginning of the period before gradually spreading northward/northeastward throughout the day as the system moves northward. Tornadoes are most likely within the low-topped convection within these rainbands, so a low-probability tornado risk will begin early across the FL Peninsula before spreading northeastward over time. A relatively greater tornado risk is anticipated later, with best overlap between these rainbands and the strong low/mid-level flow beginning over FL during the late afternoon and moving into GA and SC during the evening and overnight. Highest tornado potential is still anticipated across coastal GA and SC Low Country after 00Z Friday. ...Southern New England/Hudson Valley... A compact upper low is forecast to progress eastward across southern Quebec and adjacent portions of New England on Thursday. Strong large-scale forcing for ascent will aid in the development of a convective line during the afternoon from southern New England into the Hudson Valley. Buoyancy will be modest, but enhanced mid-level flow through the base of the upper low will support moderate to strong deep-layer vertical shear. Consequently, a few stronger storms capable of damaging gusts are possible. Overall coverage of damaging gusts is currently expected to remain below 5%. ..Mosier.. 09/25/2024 Read more

SPC Sep 25, 2024 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

9 months 3 weeks ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Tropical Cyclone Helene is forecast to move inland across northern Florida and Georgia on Thursday. A risk for tropical-cyclone tornadoes will accompany this system, particularly from the central Florida Peninsula into southeast Georgia and parts of the Midlands and Low Country of South Carolina. ...FL/GA/SC/southeast NC... Latest forecast track guidance from the National Hurricane Center has Hurricane Helene over the eastern Gulf of Mexico (about 225 miles west-southwest of SRQ) early Thursday morning. This system is forecast to continue northward and make landfall in the FL Big Bend vicinity just east of AAF Thursday evening. As the storm moves northward throughout the day, the strong wind field accompanying it will expand northward as well, beginning over the FL Peninsula Thursday morning before reaching into GA during the afternoon and into SC by Thursday evening. These increased winds will result in long, looping hodographs with more than enough low-level shear to support tornadogenesis. As such, buoyancy-related updraft strength/persistence will be the primary factor determining thunderstorm severity and overall tornado potential and frequency. Initial rainbands will likely be impacting the west coast of the FL Peninsula at the beginning of the period before gradually spreading northward/northeastward throughout the day as the system moves northward. Tornadoes are most likely within the low-topped convection within these rainbands, so a low-probability tornado risk will begin early across the FL Peninsula before spreading northeastward over time. A relatively greater tornado risk is anticipated later, with best overlap between these rainbands and the strong low/mid-level flow beginning over FL during the late afternoon and moving into GA and SC during the evening and overnight. Highest tornado potential is still anticipated across coastal GA and SC Low Country after 00Z Friday. ...Southern New England/Hudson Valley... A compact upper low is forecast to progress eastward across southern Quebec and adjacent portions of New England on Thursday. Strong large-scale forcing for ascent will aid in the development of a convective line during the afternoon from southern New England into the Hudson Valley. Buoyancy will be modest, but enhanced mid-level flow through the base of the upper low will support moderate to strong deep-layer vertical shear. Consequently, a few stronger storms capable of damaging gusts are possible. Overall coverage of damaging gusts is currently expected to remain below 5%. ..Mosier.. 09/25/2024 Read more

SPC Sep 25, 2024 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

9 months 3 weeks ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Tropical Cyclone Helene is forecast to move inland across northern Florida and Georgia on Thursday. A risk for tropical-cyclone tornadoes will accompany this system, particularly from the central Florida Peninsula into southeast Georgia and parts of the Midlands and Low Country of South Carolina. ...FL/GA/SC/southeast NC... Latest forecast track guidance from the National Hurricane Center has Hurricane Helene over the eastern Gulf of Mexico (about 225 miles west-southwest of SRQ) early Thursday morning. This system is forecast to continue northward and make landfall in the FL Big Bend vicinity just east of AAF Thursday evening. As the storm moves northward throughout the day, the strong wind field accompanying it will expand northward as well, beginning over the FL Peninsula Thursday morning before reaching into GA during the afternoon and into SC by Thursday evening. These increased winds will result in long, looping hodographs with more than enough low-level shear to support tornadogenesis. As such, buoyancy-related updraft strength/persistence will be the primary factor determining thunderstorm severity and overall tornado potential and frequency. Initial rainbands will likely be impacting the west coast of the FL Peninsula at the beginning of the period before gradually spreading northward/northeastward throughout the day as the system moves northward. Tornadoes are most likely within the low-topped convection within these rainbands, so a low-probability tornado risk will begin early across the FL Peninsula before spreading northeastward over time. A relatively greater tornado risk is anticipated later, with best overlap between these rainbands and the strong low/mid-level flow beginning over FL during the late afternoon and moving into GA and SC during the evening and overnight. Highest tornado potential is still anticipated across coastal GA and SC Low Country after 00Z Friday. ...Southern New England/Hudson Valley... A compact upper low is forecast to progress eastward across southern Quebec and adjacent portions of New England on Thursday. Strong large-scale forcing for ascent will aid in the development of a convective line during the afternoon from southern New England into the Hudson Valley. Buoyancy will be modest, but enhanced mid-level flow through the base of the upper low will support moderate to strong deep-layer vertical shear. Consequently, a few stronger storms capable of damaging gusts are possible. Overall coverage of damaging gusts is currently expected to remain below 5%. ..Mosier.. 09/25/2024 Read more

SPC Sep 25, 2024 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

9 months 3 weeks ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Tropical Cyclone Helene is forecast to move inland across northern Florida and Georgia on Thursday. A risk for tropical-cyclone tornadoes will accompany this system, particularly from the central Florida Peninsula into southeast Georgia and parts of the Midlands and Low Country of South Carolina. ...FL/GA/SC/southeast NC... Latest forecast track guidance from the National Hurricane Center has Hurricane Helene over the eastern Gulf of Mexico (about 225 miles west-southwest of SRQ) early Thursday morning. This system is forecast to continue northward and make landfall in the FL Big Bend vicinity just east of AAF Thursday evening. As the storm moves northward throughout the day, the strong wind field accompanying it will expand northward as well, beginning over the FL Peninsula Thursday morning before reaching into GA during the afternoon and into SC by Thursday evening. These increased winds will result in long, looping hodographs with more than enough low-level shear to support tornadogenesis. As such, buoyancy-related updraft strength/persistence will be the primary factor determining thunderstorm severity and overall tornado potential and frequency. Initial rainbands will likely be impacting the west coast of the FL Peninsula at the beginning of the period before gradually spreading northward/northeastward throughout the day as the system moves northward. Tornadoes are most likely within the low-topped convection within these rainbands, so a low-probability tornado risk will begin early across the FL Peninsula before spreading northeastward over time. A relatively greater tornado risk is anticipated later, with best overlap between these rainbands and the strong low/mid-level flow beginning over FL during the late afternoon and moving into GA and SC during the evening and overnight. Highest tornado potential is still anticipated across coastal GA and SC Low Country after 00Z Friday. ...Southern New England/Hudson Valley... A compact upper low is forecast to progress eastward across southern Quebec and adjacent portions of New England on Thursday. Strong large-scale forcing for ascent will aid in the development of a convective line during the afternoon from southern New England into the Hudson Valley. Buoyancy will be modest, but enhanced mid-level flow through the base of the upper low will support moderate to strong deep-layer vertical shear. Consequently, a few stronger storms capable of damaging gusts are possible. Overall coverage of damaging gusts is currently expected to remain below 5%. ..Mosier.. 09/25/2024 Read more

SPC Sep 25, 2024 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

9 months 3 weeks ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Tropical Cyclone Helene is forecast to move inland across northern Florida and Georgia on Thursday. A risk for tropical-cyclone tornadoes will accompany this system, particularly from the central Florida Peninsula into southeast Georgia and parts of the Midlands and Low Country of South Carolina. ...FL/GA/SC/southeast NC... Latest forecast track guidance from the National Hurricane Center has Hurricane Helene over the eastern Gulf of Mexico (about 225 miles west-southwest of SRQ) early Thursday morning. This system is forecast to continue northward and make landfall in the FL Big Bend vicinity just east of AAF Thursday evening. As the storm moves northward throughout the day, the strong wind field accompanying it will expand northward as well, beginning over the FL Peninsula Thursday morning before reaching into GA during the afternoon and into SC by Thursday evening. These increased winds will result in long, looping hodographs with more than enough low-level shear to support tornadogenesis. As such, buoyancy-related updraft strength/persistence will be the primary factor determining thunderstorm severity and overall tornado potential and frequency. Initial rainbands will likely be impacting the west coast of the FL Peninsula at the beginning of the period before gradually spreading northward/northeastward throughout the day as the system moves northward. Tornadoes are most likely within the low-topped convection within these rainbands, so a low-probability tornado risk will begin early across the FL Peninsula before spreading northeastward over time. A relatively greater tornado risk is anticipated later, with best overlap between these rainbands and the strong low/mid-level flow beginning over FL during the late afternoon and moving into GA and SC during the evening and overnight. Highest tornado potential is still anticipated across coastal GA and SC Low Country after 00Z Friday. ...Southern New England/Hudson Valley... A compact upper low is forecast to progress eastward across southern Quebec and adjacent portions of New England on Thursday. Strong large-scale forcing for ascent will aid in the development of a convective line during the afternoon from southern New England into the Hudson Valley. Buoyancy will be modest, but enhanced mid-level flow through the base of the upper low will support moderate to strong deep-layer vertical shear. Consequently, a few stronger storms capable of damaging gusts are possible. Overall coverage of damaging gusts is currently expected to remain below 5%. ..Mosier.. 09/25/2024 Read more

SPC Sep 25, 2024 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

9 months 3 weeks ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Tropical Cyclone Helene is forecast to move inland across northern Florida and Georgia on Thursday. A risk for tropical-cyclone tornadoes will accompany this system, particularly from the central Florida Peninsula into southeast Georgia and parts of the Midlands and Low Country of South Carolina. ...FL/GA/SC/southeast NC... Latest forecast track guidance from the National Hurricane Center has Hurricane Helene over the eastern Gulf of Mexico (about 225 miles west-southwest of SRQ) early Thursday morning. This system is forecast to continue northward and make landfall in the FL Big Bend vicinity just east of AAF Thursday evening. As the storm moves northward throughout the day, the strong wind field accompanying it will expand northward as well, beginning over the FL Peninsula Thursday morning before reaching into GA during the afternoon and into SC by Thursday evening. These increased winds will result in long, looping hodographs with more than enough low-level shear to support tornadogenesis. As such, buoyancy-related updraft strength/persistence will be the primary factor determining thunderstorm severity and overall tornado potential and frequency. Initial rainbands will likely be impacting the west coast of the FL Peninsula at the beginning of the period before gradually spreading northward/northeastward throughout the day as the system moves northward. Tornadoes are most likely within the low-topped convection within these rainbands, so a low-probability tornado risk will begin early across the FL Peninsula before spreading northeastward over time. A relatively greater tornado risk is anticipated later, with best overlap between these rainbands and the strong low/mid-level flow beginning over FL during the late afternoon and moving into GA and SC during the evening and overnight. Highest tornado potential is still anticipated across coastal GA and SC Low Country after 00Z Friday. ...Southern New England/Hudson Valley... A compact upper low is forecast to progress eastward across southern Quebec and adjacent portions of New England on Thursday. Strong large-scale forcing for ascent will aid in the development of a convective line during the afternoon from southern New England into the Hudson Valley. Buoyancy will be modest, but enhanced mid-level flow through the base of the upper low will support moderate to strong deep-layer vertical shear. Consequently, a few stronger storms capable of damaging gusts are possible. Overall coverage of damaging gusts is currently expected to remain below 5%. ..Mosier.. 09/25/2024 Read more