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SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA INTO SOUTHERN VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... A risk for a couple of tornadoes and damaging thunderstorm wind gusts exists across parts of North Carolina into southern Virginia on Friday. ...NC/VA... Strong low to midlevel southeasterly flow fields associated with the remnants of Tropical Cyclone Helene will persist through Friday afternoon across the southern Mid-Atlantic vicinity. Onshore low-level flow will maintain a high theta-e airmass, with surface dewpoints in the mid 70s F expected. Forecast soundings across the area show favorable low-level hodographs supporting rotation within cells in northwest moving convective bands. While lapse rates will remain poor, rich boundary-layer moisture should provide enough low-level instability to support occasional strong gusts and a couple of tornadoes through late afternoon/early evening. The northward extent of severe potential will be limited by weakening deep-layer flow beyond the 21-00z time frame and a cold front sagging southeast across VA. ..Leitman.. 09/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA INTO SOUTHERN VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... A risk for a couple of tornadoes and damaging thunderstorm wind gusts exists across parts of North Carolina into southern Virginia on Friday. ...NC/VA... Strong low to midlevel southeasterly flow fields associated with the remnants of Tropical Cyclone Helene will persist through Friday afternoon across the southern Mid-Atlantic vicinity. Onshore low-level flow will maintain a high theta-e airmass, with surface dewpoints in the mid 70s F expected. Forecast soundings across the area show favorable low-level hodographs supporting rotation within cells in northwest moving convective bands. While lapse rates will remain poor, rich boundary-layer moisture should provide enough low-level instability to support occasional strong gusts and a couple of tornadoes through late afternoon/early evening. The northward extent of severe potential will be limited by weakening deep-layer flow beyond the 21-00z time frame and a cold front sagging southeast across VA. ..Leitman.. 09/25/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to be low on Thursday. Hurricane Helene will be absorbed into the upper-level flow across the eastern US with widespread rainfall anticipated. Across the central and western US, a ridge of high pressure will remain in place with generally light winds. As such, no overlap of critically dry fuels with Elevated/Critical conditions is expected. ..Thornton.. 09/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to be low on Thursday. Hurricane Helene will be absorbed into the upper-level flow across the eastern US with widespread rainfall anticipated. Across the central and western US, a ridge of high pressure will remain in place with generally light winds. As such, no overlap of critically dry fuels with Elevated/Critical conditions is expected. ..Thornton.. 09/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to be low on Thursday. Hurricane Helene will be absorbed into the upper-level flow across the eastern US with widespread rainfall anticipated. Across the central and western US, a ridge of high pressure will remain in place with generally light winds. As such, no overlap of critically dry fuels with Elevated/Critical conditions is expected. ..Thornton.. 09/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to be low on Thursday. Hurricane Helene will be absorbed into the upper-level flow across the eastern US with widespread rainfall anticipated. Across the central and western US, a ridge of high pressure will remain in place with generally light winds. As such, no overlap of critically dry fuels with Elevated/Critical conditions is expected. ..Thornton.. 09/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to be low on Thursday. Hurricane Helene will be absorbed into the upper-level flow across the eastern US with widespread rainfall anticipated. Across the central and western US, a ridge of high pressure will remain in place with generally light winds. As such, no overlap of critically dry fuels with Elevated/Critical conditions is expected. ..Thornton.. 09/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to be low on Thursday. Hurricane Helene will be absorbed into the upper-level flow across the eastern US with widespread rainfall anticipated. Across the central and western US, a ridge of high pressure will remain in place with generally light winds. As such, no overlap of critically dry fuels with Elevated/Critical conditions is expected. ..Thornton.. 09/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to be low on Thursday. Hurricane Helene will be absorbed into the upper-level flow across the eastern US with widespread rainfall anticipated. Across the central and western US, a ridge of high pressure will remain in place with generally light winds. As such, no overlap of critically dry fuels with Elevated/Critical conditions is expected. ..Thornton.. 09/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0113 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A trough will traverse the northern portion of the western US ridge today, bringing enhanced mid-level flow over the Cascades into western Washington and Oregon. Across southwestern Oregon, sustained winds around 15-20 mph will overlap relative humidity reductions to around 20-25 percent. Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible. Receptive fuels in this region are spotty, which leads to low confidence in including an area at this time. In the lee of the Bighorn Mountains in Wyoming, some Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions will be possible. Overall, sustained Elevated to Critical wind speeds appear brief and localized. ..Thornton.. 09/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0113 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A trough will traverse the northern portion of the western US ridge today, bringing enhanced mid-level flow over the Cascades into western Washington and Oregon. Across southwestern Oregon, sustained winds around 15-20 mph will overlap relative humidity reductions to around 20-25 percent. Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible. Receptive fuels in this region are spotty, which leads to low confidence in including an area at this time. In the lee of the Bighorn Mountains in Wyoming, some Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions will be possible. Overall, sustained Elevated to Critical wind speeds appear brief and localized. ..Thornton.. 09/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0113 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A trough will traverse the northern portion of the western US ridge today, bringing enhanced mid-level flow over the Cascades into western Washington and Oregon. Across southwestern Oregon, sustained winds around 15-20 mph will overlap relative humidity reductions to around 20-25 percent. Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible. Receptive fuels in this region are spotty, which leads to low confidence in including an area at this time. In the lee of the Bighorn Mountains in Wyoming, some Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions will be possible. Overall, sustained Elevated to Critical wind speeds appear brief and localized. ..Thornton.. 09/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0113 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A trough will traverse the northern portion of the western US ridge today, bringing enhanced mid-level flow over the Cascades into western Washington and Oregon. Across southwestern Oregon, sustained winds around 15-20 mph will overlap relative humidity reductions to around 20-25 percent. Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible. Receptive fuels in this region are spotty, which leads to low confidence in including an area at this time. In the lee of the Bighorn Mountains in Wyoming, some Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions will be possible. Overall, sustained Elevated to Critical wind speeds appear brief and localized. ..Thornton.. 09/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0113 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A trough will traverse the northern portion of the western US ridge today, bringing enhanced mid-level flow over the Cascades into western Washington and Oregon. Across southwestern Oregon, sustained winds around 15-20 mph will overlap relative humidity reductions to around 20-25 percent. Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible. Receptive fuels in this region are spotty, which leads to low confidence in including an area at this time. In the lee of the Bighorn Mountains in Wyoming, some Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions will be possible. Overall, sustained Elevated to Critical wind speeds appear brief and localized. ..Thornton.. 09/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0113 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A trough will traverse the northern portion of the western US ridge today, bringing enhanced mid-level flow over the Cascades into western Washington and Oregon. Across southwestern Oregon, sustained winds around 15-20 mph will overlap relative humidity reductions to around 20-25 percent. Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible. Receptive fuels in this region are spotty, which leads to low confidence in including an area at this time. In the lee of the Bighorn Mountains in Wyoming, some Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions will be possible. Overall, sustained Elevated to Critical wind speeds appear brief and localized. ..Thornton.. 09/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0113 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A trough will traverse the northern portion of the western US ridge today, bringing enhanced mid-level flow over the Cascades into western Washington and Oregon. Across southwestern Oregon, sustained winds around 15-20 mph will overlap relative humidity reductions to around 20-25 percent. Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible. Receptive fuels in this region are spotty, which leads to low confidence in including an area at this time. In the lee of the Bighorn Mountains in Wyoming, some Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions will be possible. Overall, sustained Elevated to Critical wind speeds appear brief and localized. ..Thornton.. 09/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA INTO THE SOUTHERN SC COASTAL VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Tropical Cyclone Helene is forecast to move inland across northern Florida and Georgia on Thursday. A risk for tropical-cyclone tornadoes will accompany this system, particularly from the central Florida Peninsula into southeast Georgia and parts of the Midlands and Low Country of South Carolina. ...FL/GA/SC/southeast NC... Latest forecast track guidance from the National Hurricane Center has Helene making landfall in the vicinity of the Florida Big Bend Thursday evening. As the storm tracks northward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico, low and mid level flow fields will increase from central FL into southeast GA and coastal SC during the day. Forecast soundings from most forecast guidance show very large, favorably curved low-level hodographs for rotating supercells within convective bands well east/northeast of the center of Helene. Surface dewpoints are forecast to increase into the mid 70s F, resulting in greater than 125 J/kg 0-3 km MLCAPE from north FL into southeast GA and southern coastal SC. Furthermore, looking at historical tropical cyclone tornado data, adjusting for the expected track/storm motion of Helene and even distance from the center, previous cyclone analogs have produced several tornadoes within the favored northeast quadrant. Given a consistent, favorable signal across ensemble, deterministic, CAMs and calibrated guidance, an Enhanced risk (level 3 of 5) has been included, driven by a 10 percent tornado probability, across southeast GA into southern coastal SC. ..Leitman.. 09/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA INTO THE SOUTHERN SC COASTAL VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Tropical Cyclone Helene is forecast to move inland across northern Florida and Georgia on Thursday. A risk for tropical-cyclone tornadoes will accompany this system, particularly from the central Florida Peninsula into southeast Georgia and parts of the Midlands and Low Country of South Carolina. ...FL/GA/SC/southeast NC... Latest forecast track guidance from the National Hurricane Center has Helene making landfall in the vicinity of the Florida Big Bend Thursday evening. As the storm tracks northward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico, low and mid level flow fields will increase from central FL into southeast GA and coastal SC during the day. Forecast soundings from most forecast guidance show very large, favorably curved low-level hodographs for rotating supercells within convective bands well east/northeast of the center of Helene. Surface dewpoints are forecast to increase into the mid 70s F, resulting in greater than 125 J/kg 0-3 km MLCAPE from north FL into southeast GA and southern coastal SC. Furthermore, looking at historical tropical cyclone tornado data, adjusting for the expected track/storm motion of Helene and even distance from the center, previous cyclone analogs have produced several tornadoes within the favored northeast quadrant. Given a consistent, favorable signal across ensemble, deterministic, CAMs and calibrated guidance, an Enhanced risk (level 3 of 5) has been included, driven by a 10 percent tornado probability, across southeast GA into southern coastal SC. ..Leitman.. 09/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA INTO THE SOUTHERN SC COASTAL VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Tropical Cyclone Helene is forecast to move inland across northern Florida and Georgia on Thursday. A risk for tropical-cyclone tornadoes will accompany this system, particularly from the central Florida Peninsula into southeast Georgia and parts of the Midlands and Low Country of South Carolina. ...FL/GA/SC/southeast NC... Latest forecast track guidance from the National Hurricane Center has Helene making landfall in the vicinity of the Florida Big Bend Thursday evening. As the storm tracks northward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico, low and mid level flow fields will increase from central FL into southeast GA and coastal SC during the day. Forecast soundings from most forecast guidance show very large, favorably curved low-level hodographs for rotating supercells within convective bands well east/northeast of the center of Helene. Surface dewpoints are forecast to increase into the mid 70s F, resulting in greater than 125 J/kg 0-3 km MLCAPE from north FL into southeast GA and southern coastal SC. Furthermore, looking at historical tropical cyclone tornado data, adjusting for the expected track/storm motion of Helene and even distance from the center, previous cyclone analogs have produced several tornadoes within the favored northeast quadrant. Given a consistent, favorable signal across ensemble, deterministic, CAMs and calibrated guidance, an Enhanced risk (level 3 of 5) has been included, driven by a 10 percent tornado probability, across southeast GA into southern coastal SC. ..Leitman.. 09/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA INTO THE SOUTHERN SC COASTAL VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Tropical Cyclone Helene is forecast to move inland across northern Florida and Georgia on Thursday. A risk for tropical-cyclone tornadoes will accompany this system, particularly from the central Florida Peninsula into southeast Georgia and parts of the Midlands and Low Country of South Carolina. ...FL/GA/SC/southeast NC... Latest forecast track guidance from the National Hurricane Center has Helene making landfall in the vicinity of the Florida Big Bend Thursday evening. As the storm tracks northward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico, low and mid level flow fields will increase from central FL into southeast GA and coastal SC during the day. Forecast soundings from most forecast guidance show very large, favorably curved low-level hodographs for rotating supercells within convective bands well east/northeast of the center of Helene. Surface dewpoints are forecast to increase into the mid 70s F, resulting in greater than 125 J/kg 0-3 km MLCAPE from north FL into southeast GA and southern coastal SC. Furthermore, looking at historical tropical cyclone tornado data, adjusting for the expected track/storm motion of Helene and even distance from the center, previous cyclone analogs have produced several tornadoes within the favored northeast quadrant. Given a consistent, favorable signal across ensemble, deterministic, CAMs and calibrated guidance, an Enhanced risk (level 3 of 5) has been included, driven by a 10 percent tornado probability, across southeast GA into southern coastal SC. ..Leitman.. 09/25/2024 Read more