Aggregator

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible through the afternoon across portions of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into the central/southern Appalachians. Severe storms will also be possible across portions of Oklahoma this evening. ...20Z Update... Severe probabilities were trimmed slightly eastward across portions of the OH and TN Valleys, where the surface trough/wind shift has passed by, reducing low-level convergence. Otherwise, multiple bands of multicells and transient supercells will continue to pose a threat for mainly damaging gusts through the evening, with a couple instances of severe hail or even a tornado possible. Despite the presence of mid-level clouds and lowering of surface dewpoints over central OK, adequate boundary-layer heating is contributing to continued destabilization, with 19Z mesoanalysis already showing over 1000 J/kg MLCAPE in place. Continued surface heating should support multicell/supercell development over the next few hours, with severe hail and wind gusts the main concerns. ..Squitieri.. 09/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1145 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024/ ...Ohio and Tennessee Valleys to southern Appalachians... Have spatially adjusted/expanded the Slight Risk based on observational trends and somewhat stronger destabilization across areas such as northern/middle Tennessee. Water-vapor imagery shows a mid-level vorticity maximum moving across the middle Mississippi Valley and into the Ohio Valley. A belt of moderate to strong southwesterly 500-mb flow (25-50 kt) will overspread Kentucky and the surrounding states. A surface low will migrate east-northeast into southern Lower Michigan by early evening, where isolated severe storms are possible, with a frontal zone extending south-southwest from this low into the Mid South. In the wake of early morning convection, modest cloud breaks/destabilization is forecast with upwards of 750-2000 J/kg MLCAPE from the southern Great Lakes into the southern Appalachians, with the strongest destabilization expected across Tennessee into southern Kentucky and possibly the western Carolinas pending the timing/abatement of lingering cloud cover. Regionally, ample deep-layer speed shear will aid in storm organization into organized multicells and probably several supercells. Damaging winds will be the most common hazard, but isolated large hail will be possible, and some tornado risk may exist as well. ...Oklahoma/North Texas... Have upgraded portions of central Oklahoma for what is expected to be a semi-focused regional corridor of large hail potential late this afternoon and early evening. The region will be influenced by the immediate backside of a southeastward-moving upper-level trough centered over the Lower Missouri Valley. A considerably strengthening cyclonically curved belt of westerlies aloft will influence Oklahoma, overspreading a relatively moist air mass, with lower to some middle 60s F surface dewpoints likely to persist through the diurnal heating/mixing cycle. Near a deepening surface low and nearby triple point/warm front, at least isolated storms are expected to develop as early as mid-afternoon (3-4pm), becoming more probable with a greater coverage through sunset. Overall buoyancy will not be robust, with MLCAPE generally not expected to exceed 1000 J/kg later this afternoon. However, this buoyancy, along with steep lapse rates and robustly vertically veering wind profiles, accentuated by 35-45 kt northwesterly mid/upper-level flow, should support initial supercells capable of large hail (potentially golfball size), along with some potential for damaging wind gusts. These storms will persist generally southeastward through the evening into southern/southeast Oklahoma, and probably north Texas overnight. Overall intensity will tend to wane nocturnally after sunset, but some severe hail/wind potential will probably linger, particularly on the west/southwest flank of any evolving clusters of storms, which will be increasingly elevated to the east of the warm front. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible through the afternoon across portions of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into the central/southern Appalachians. Severe storms will also be possible across portions of Oklahoma this evening. ...20Z Update... Severe probabilities were trimmed slightly eastward across portions of the OH and TN Valleys, where the surface trough/wind shift has passed by, reducing low-level convergence. Otherwise, multiple bands of multicells and transient supercells will continue to pose a threat for mainly damaging gusts through the evening, with a couple instances of severe hail or even a tornado possible. Despite the presence of mid-level clouds and lowering of surface dewpoints over central OK, adequate boundary-layer heating is contributing to continued destabilization, with 19Z mesoanalysis already showing over 1000 J/kg MLCAPE in place. Continued surface heating should support multicell/supercell development over the next few hours, with severe hail and wind gusts the main concerns. ..Squitieri.. 09/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1145 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024/ ...Ohio and Tennessee Valleys to southern Appalachians... Have spatially adjusted/expanded the Slight Risk based on observational trends and somewhat stronger destabilization across areas such as northern/middle Tennessee. Water-vapor imagery shows a mid-level vorticity maximum moving across the middle Mississippi Valley and into the Ohio Valley. A belt of moderate to strong southwesterly 500-mb flow (25-50 kt) will overspread Kentucky and the surrounding states. A surface low will migrate east-northeast into southern Lower Michigan by early evening, where isolated severe storms are possible, with a frontal zone extending south-southwest from this low into the Mid South. In the wake of early morning convection, modest cloud breaks/destabilization is forecast with upwards of 750-2000 J/kg MLCAPE from the southern Great Lakes into the southern Appalachians, with the strongest destabilization expected across Tennessee into southern Kentucky and possibly the western Carolinas pending the timing/abatement of lingering cloud cover. Regionally, ample deep-layer speed shear will aid in storm organization into organized multicells and probably several supercells. Damaging winds will be the most common hazard, but isolated large hail will be possible, and some tornado risk may exist as well. ...Oklahoma/North Texas... Have upgraded portions of central Oklahoma for what is expected to be a semi-focused regional corridor of large hail potential late this afternoon and early evening. The region will be influenced by the immediate backside of a southeastward-moving upper-level trough centered over the Lower Missouri Valley. A considerably strengthening cyclonically curved belt of westerlies aloft will influence Oklahoma, overspreading a relatively moist air mass, with lower to some middle 60s F surface dewpoints likely to persist through the diurnal heating/mixing cycle. Near a deepening surface low and nearby triple point/warm front, at least isolated storms are expected to develop as early as mid-afternoon (3-4pm), becoming more probable with a greater coverage through sunset. Overall buoyancy will not be robust, with MLCAPE generally not expected to exceed 1000 J/kg later this afternoon. However, this buoyancy, along with steep lapse rates and robustly vertically veering wind profiles, accentuated by 35-45 kt northwesterly mid/upper-level flow, should support initial supercells capable of large hail (potentially golfball size), along with some potential for damaging wind gusts. These storms will persist generally southeastward through the evening into southern/southeast Oklahoma, and probably north Texas overnight. Overall intensity will tend to wane nocturnally after sunset, but some severe hail/wind potential will probably linger, particularly on the west/southwest flank of any evolving clusters of storms, which will be increasingly elevated to the east of the warm front. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible through the afternoon across portions of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into the central/southern Appalachians. Severe storms will also be possible across portions of Oklahoma this evening. ...20Z Update... Severe probabilities were trimmed slightly eastward across portions of the OH and TN Valleys, where the surface trough/wind shift has passed by, reducing low-level convergence. Otherwise, multiple bands of multicells and transient supercells will continue to pose a threat for mainly damaging gusts through the evening, with a couple instances of severe hail or even a tornado possible. Despite the presence of mid-level clouds and lowering of surface dewpoints over central OK, adequate boundary-layer heating is contributing to continued destabilization, with 19Z mesoanalysis already showing over 1000 J/kg MLCAPE in place. Continued surface heating should support multicell/supercell development over the next few hours, with severe hail and wind gusts the main concerns. ..Squitieri.. 09/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1145 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024/ ...Ohio and Tennessee Valleys to southern Appalachians... Have spatially adjusted/expanded the Slight Risk based on observational trends and somewhat stronger destabilization across areas such as northern/middle Tennessee. Water-vapor imagery shows a mid-level vorticity maximum moving across the middle Mississippi Valley and into the Ohio Valley. A belt of moderate to strong southwesterly 500-mb flow (25-50 kt) will overspread Kentucky and the surrounding states. A surface low will migrate east-northeast into southern Lower Michigan by early evening, where isolated severe storms are possible, with a frontal zone extending south-southwest from this low into the Mid South. In the wake of early morning convection, modest cloud breaks/destabilization is forecast with upwards of 750-2000 J/kg MLCAPE from the southern Great Lakes into the southern Appalachians, with the strongest destabilization expected across Tennessee into southern Kentucky and possibly the western Carolinas pending the timing/abatement of lingering cloud cover. Regionally, ample deep-layer speed shear will aid in storm organization into organized multicells and probably several supercells. Damaging winds will be the most common hazard, but isolated large hail will be possible, and some tornado risk may exist as well. ...Oklahoma/North Texas... Have upgraded portions of central Oklahoma for what is expected to be a semi-focused regional corridor of large hail potential late this afternoon and early evening. The region will be influenced by the immediate backside of a southeastward-moving upper-level trough centered over the Lower Missouri Valley. A considerably strengthening cyclonically curved belt of westerlies aloft will influence Oklahoma, overspreading a relatively moist air mass, with lower to some middle 60s F surface dewpoints likely to persist through the diurnal heating/mixing cycle. Near a deepening surface low and nearby triple point/warm front, at least isolated storms are expected to develop as early as mid-afternoon (3-4pm), becoming more probable with a greater coverage through sunset. Overall buoyancy will not be robust, with MLCAPE generally not expected to exceed 1000 J/kg later this afternoon. However, this buoyancy, along with steep lapse rates and robustly vertically veering wind profiles, accentuated by 35-45 kt northwesterly mid/upper-level flow, should support initial supercells capable of large hail (potentially golfball size), along with some potential for damaging wind gusts. These storms will persist generally southeastward through the evening into southern/southeast Oklahoma, and probably north Texas overnight. Overall intensity will tend to wane nocturnally after sunset, but some severe hail/wind potential will probably linger, particularly on the west/southwest flank of any evolving clusters of storms, which will be increasingly elevated to the east of the warm front. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible through the afternoon across portions of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into the central/southern Appalachians. Severe storms will also be possible across portions of Oklahoma this evening. ...20Z Update... Severe probabilities were trimmed slightly eastward across portions of the OH and TN Valleys, where the surface trough/wind shift has passed by, reducing low-level convergence. Otherwise, multiple bands of multicells and transient supercells will continue to pose a threat for mainly damaging gusts through the evening, with a couple instances of severe hail or even a tornado possible. Despite the presence of mid-level clouds and lowering of surface dewpoints over central OK, adequate boundary-layer heating is contributing to continued destabilization, with 19Z mesoanalysis already showing over 1000 J/kg MLCAPE in place. Continued surface heating should support multicell/supercell development over the next few hours, with severe hail and wind gusts the main concerns. ..Squitieri.. 09/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1145 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024/ ...Ohio and Tennessee Valleys to southern Appalachians... Have spatially adjusted/expanded the Slight Risk based on observational trends and somewhat stronger destabilization across areas such as northern/middle Tennessee. Water-vapor imagery shows a mid-level vorticity maximum moving across the middle Mississippi Valley and into the Ohio Valley. A belt of moderate to strong southwesterly 500-mb flow (25-50 kt) will overspread Kentucky and the surrounding states. A surface low will migrate east-northeast into southern Lower Michigan by early evening, where isolated severe storms are possible, with a frontal zone extending south-southwest from this low into the Mid South. In the wake of early morning convection, modest cloud breaks/destabilization is forecast with upwards of 750-2000 J/kg MLCAPE from the southern Great Lakes into the southern Appalachians, with the strongest destabilization expected across Tennessee into southern Kentucky and possibly the western Carolinas pending the timing/abatement of lingering cloud cover. Regionally, ample deep-layer speed shear will aid in storm organization into organized multicells and probably several supercells. Damaging winds will be the most common hazard, but isolated large hail will be possible, and some tornado risk may exist as well. ...Oklahoma/North Texas... Have upgraded portions of central Oklahoma for what is expected to be a semi-focused regional corridor of large hail potential late this afternoon and early evening. The region will be influenced by the immediate backside of a southeastward-moving upper-level trough centered over the Lower Missouri Valley. A considerably strengthening cyclonically curved belt of westerlies aloft will influence Oklahoma, overspreading a relatively moist air mass, with lower to some middle 60s F surface dewpoints likely to persist through the diurnal heating/mixing cycle. Near a deepening surface low and nearby triple point/warm front, at least isolated storms are expected to develop as early as mid-afternoon (3-4pm), becoming more probable with a greater coverage through sunset. Overall buoyancy will not be robust, with MLCAPE generally not expected to exceed 1000 J/kg later this afternoon. However, this buoyancy, along with steep lapse rates and robustly vertically veering wind profiles, accentuated by 35-45 kt northwesterly mid/upper-level flow, should support initial supercells capable of large hail (potentially golfball size), along with some potential for damaging wind gusts. These storms will persist generally southeastward through the evening into southern/southeast Oklahoma, and probably north Texas overnight. Overall intensity will tend to wane nocturnally after sunset, but some severe hail/wind potential will probably linger, particularly on the west/southwest flank of any evolving clusters of storms, which will be increasingly elevated to the east of the warm front. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible through the afternoon across portions of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into the central/southern Appalachians. Severe storms will also be possible across portions of Oklahoma this evening. ...20Z Update... Severe probabilities were trimmed slightly eastward across portions of the OH and TN Valleys, where the surface trough/wind shift has passed by, reducing low-level convergence. Otherwise, multiple bands of multicells and transient supercells will continue to pose a threat for mainly damaging gusts through the evening, with a couple instances of severe hail or even a tornado possible. Despite the presence of mid-level clouds and lowering of surface dewpoints over central OK, adequate boundary-layer heating is contributing to continued destabilization, with 19Z mesoanalysis already showing over 1000 J/kg MLCAPE in place. Continued surface heating should support multicell/supercell development over the next few hours, with severe hail and wind gusts the main concerns. ..Squitieri.. 09/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1145 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024/ ...Ohio and Tennessee Valleys to southern Appalachians... Have spatially adjusted/expanded the Slight Risk based on observational trends and somewhat stronger destabilization across areas such as northern/middle Tennessee. Water-vapor imagery shows a mid-level vorticity maximum moving across the middle Mississippi Valley and into the Ohio Valley. A belt of moderate to strong southwesterly 500-mb flow (25-50 kt) will overspread Kentucky and the surrounding states. A surface low will migrate east-northeast into southern Lower Michigan by early evening, where isolated severe storms are possible, with a frontal zone extending south-southwest from this low into the Mid South. In the wake of early morning convection, modest cloud breaks/destabilization is forecast with upwards of 750-2000 J/kg MLCAPE from the southern Great Lakes into the southern Appalachians, with the strongest destabilization expected across Tennessee into southern Kentucky and possibly the western Carolinas pending the timing/abatement of lingering cloud cover. Regionally, ample deep-layer speed shear will aid in storm organization into organized multicells and probably several supercells. Damaging winds will be the most common hazard, but isolated large hail will be possible, and some tornado risk may exist as well. ...Oklahoma/North Texas... Have upgraded portions of central Oklahoma for what is expected to be a semi-focused regional corridor of large hail potential late this afternoon and early evening. The region will be influenced by the immediate backside of a southeastward-moving upper-level trough centered over the Lower Missouri Valley. A considerably strengthening cyclonically curved belt of westerlies aloft will influence Oklahoma, overspreading a relatively moist air mass, with lower to some middle 60s F surface dewpoints likely to persist through the diurnal heating/mixing cycle. Near a deepening surface low and nearby triple point/warm front, at least isolated storms are expected to develop as early as mid-afternoon (3-4pm), becoming more probable with a greater coverage through sunset. Overall buoyancy will not be robust, with MLCAPE generally not expected to exceed 1000 J/kg later this afternoon. However, this buoyancy, along with steep lapse rates and robustly vertically veering wind profiles, accentuated by 35-45 kt northwesterly mid/upper-level flow, should support initial supercells capable of large hail (potentially golfball size), along with some potential for damaging wind gusts. These storms will persist generally southeastward through the evening into southern/southeast Oklahoma, and probably north Texas overnight. Overall intensity will tend to wane nocturnally after sunset, but some severe hail/wind potential will probably linger, particularly on the west/southwest flank of any evolving clusters of storms, which will be increasingly elevated to the east of the warm front. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible through the afternoon across portions of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into the central/southern Appalachians. Severe storms will also be possible across portions of Oklahoma this evening. ...20Z Update... Severe probabilities were trimmed slightly eastward across portions of the OH and TN Valleys, where the surface trough/wind shift has passed by, reducing low-level convergence. Otherwise, multiple bands of multicells and transient supercells will continue to pose a threat for mainly damaging gusts through the evening, with a couple instances of severe hail or even a tornado possible. Despite the presence of mid-level clouds and lowering of surface dewpoints over central OK, adequate boundary-layer heating is contributing to continued destabilization, with 19Z mesoanalysis already showing over 1000 J/kg MLCAPE in place. Continued surface heating should support multicell/supercell development over the next few hours, with severe hail and wind gusts the main concerns. ..Squitieri.. 09/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1145 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024/ ...Ohio and Tennessee Valleys to southern Appalachians... Have spatially adjusted/expanded the Slight Risk based on observational trends and somewhat stronger destabilization across areas such as northern/middle Tennessee. Water-vapor imagery shows a mid-level vorticity maximum moving across the middle Mississippi Valley and into the Ohio Valley. A belt of moderate to strong southwesterly 500-mb flow (25-50 kt) will overspread Kentucky and the surrounding states. A surface low will migrate east-northeast into southern Lower Michigan by early evening, where isolated severe storms are possible, with a frontal zone extending south-southwest from this low into the Mid South. In the wake of early morning convection, modest cloud breaks/destabilization is forecast with upwards of 750-2000 J/kg MLCAPE from the southern Great Lakes into the southern Appalachians, with the strongest destabilization expected across Tennessee into southern Kentucky and possibly the western Carolinas pending the timing/abatement of lingering cloud cover. Regionally, ample deep-layer speed shear will aid in storm organization into organized multicells and probably several supercells. Damaging winds will be the most common hazard, but isolated large hail will be possible, and some tornado risk may exist as well. ...Oklahoma/North Texas... Have upgraded portions of central Oklahoma for what is expected to be a semi-focused regional corridor of large hail potential late this afternoon and early evening. The region will be influenced by the immediate backside of a southeastward-moving upper-level trough centered over the Lower Missouri Valley. A considerably strengthening cyclonically curved belt of westerlies aloft will influence Oklahoma, overspreading a relatively moist air mass, with lower to some middle 60s F surface dewpoints likely to persist through the diurnal heating/mixing cycle. Near a deepening surface low and nearby triple point/warm front, at least isolated storms are expected to develop as early as mid-afternoon (3-4pm), becoming more probable with a greater coverage through sunset. Overall buoyancy will not be robust, with MLCAPE generally not expected to exceed 1000 J/kg later this afternoon. However, this buoyancy, along with steep lapse rates and robustly vertically veering wind profiles, accentuated by 35-45 kt northwesterly mid/upper-level flow, should support initial supercells capable of large hail (potentially golfball size), along with some potential for damaging wind gusts. These storms will persist generally southeastward through the evening into southern/southeast Oklahoma, and probably north Texas overnight. Overall intensity will tend to wane nocturnally after sunset, but some severe hail/wind potential will probably linger, particularly on the west/southwest flank of any evolving clusters of storms, which will be increasingly elevated to the east of the warm front. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible through the afternoon across portions of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into the central/southern Appalachians. Severe storms will also be possible across portions of Oklahoma this evening. ...20Z Update... Severe probabilities were trimmed slightly eastward across portions of the OH and TN Valleys, where the surface trough/wind shift has passed by, reducing low-level convergence. Otherwise, multiple bands of multicells and transient supercells will continue to pose a threat for mainly damaging gusts through the evening, with a couple instances of severe hail or even a tornado possible. Despite the presence of mid-level clouds and lowering of surface dewpoints over central OK, adequate boundary-layer heating is contributing to continued destabilization, with 19Z mesoanalysis already showing over 1000 J/kg MLCAPE in place. Continued surface heating should support multicell/supercell development over the next few hours, with severe hail and wind gusts the main concerns. ..Squitieri.. 09/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1145 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024/ ...Ohio and Tennessee Valleys to southern Appalachians... Have spatially adjusted/expanded the Slight Risk based on observational trends and somewhat stronger destabilization across areas such as northern/middle Tennessee. Water-vapor imagery shows a mid-level vorticity maximum moving across the middle Mississippi Valley and into the Ohio Valley. A belt of moderate to strong southwesterly 500-mb flow (25-50 kt) will overspread Kentucky and the surrounding states. A surface low will migrate east-northeast into southern Lower Michigan by early evening, where isolated severe storms are possible, with a frontal zone extending south-southwest from this low into the Mid South. In the wake of early morning convection, modest cloud breaks/destabilization is forecast with upwards of 750-2000 J/kg MLCAPE from the southern Great Lakes into the southern Appalachians, with the strongest destabilization expected across Tennessee into southern Kentucky and possibly the western Carolinas pending the timing/abatement of lingering cloud cover. Regionally, ample deep-layer speed shear will aid in storm organization into organized multicells and probably several supercells. Damaging winds will be the most common hazard, but isolated large hail will be possible, and some tornado risk may exist as well. ...Oklahoma/North Texas... Have upgraded portions of central Oklahoma for what is expected to be a semi-focused regional corridor of large hail potential late this afternoon and early evening. The region will be influenced by the immediate backside of a southeastward-moving upper-level trough centered over the Lower Missouri Valley. A considerably strengthening cyclonically curved belt of westerlies aloft will influence Oklahoma, overspreading a relatively moist air mass, with lower to some middle 60s F surface dewpoints likely to persist through the diurnal heating/mixing cycle. Near a deepening surface low and nearby triple point/warm front, at least isolated storms are expected to develop as early as mid-afternoon (3-4pm), becoming more probable with a greater coverage through sunset. Overall buoyancy will not be robust, with MLCAPE generally not expected to exceed 1000 J/kg later this afternoon. However, this buoyancy, along with steep lapse rates and robustly vertically veering wind profiles, accentuated by 35-45 kt northwesterly mid/upper-level flow, should support initial supercells capable of large hail (potentially golfball size), along with some potential for damaging wind gusts. These storms will persist generally southeastward through the evening into southern/southeast Oklahoma, and probably north Texas overnight. Overall intensity will tend to wane nocturnally after sunset, but some severe hail/wind potential will probably linger, particularly on the west/southwest flank of any evolving clusters of storms, which will be increasingly elevated to the east of the warm front. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible through the afternoon across portions of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into the central/southern Appalachians. Severe storms will also be possible across portions of Oklahoma this evening. ...20Z Update... Severe probabilities were trimmed slightly eastward across portions of the OH and TN Valleys, where the surface trough/wind shift has passed by, reducing low-level convergence. Otherwise, multiple bands of multicells and transient supercells will continue to pose a threat for mainly damaging gusts through the evening, with a couple instances of severe hail or even a tornado possible. Despite the presence of mid-level clouds and lowering of surface dewpoints over central OK, adequate boundary-layer heating is contributing to continued destabilization, with 19Z mesoanalysis already showing over 1000 J/kg MLCAPE in place. Continued surface heating should support multicell/supercell development over the next few hours, with severe hail and wind gusts the main concerns. ..Squitieri.. 09/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1145 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024/ ...Ohio and Tennessee Valleys to southern Appalachians... Have spatially adjusted/expanded the Slight Risk based on observational trends and somewhat stronger destabilization across areas such as northern/middle Tennessee. Water-vapor imagery shows a mid-level vorticity maximum moving across the middle Mississippi Valley and into the Ohio Valley. A belt of moderate to strong southwesterly 500-mb flow (25-50 kt) will overspread Kentucky and the surrounding states. A surface low will migrate east-northeast into southern Lower Michigan by early evening, where isolated severe storms are possible, with a frontal zone extending south-southwest from this low into the Mid South. In the wake of early morning convection, modest cloud breaks/destabilization is forecast with upwards of 750-2000 J/kg MLCAPE from the southern Great Lakes into the southern Appalachians, with the strongest destabilization expected across Tennessee into southern Kentucky and possibly the western Carolinas pending the timing/abatement of lingering cloud cover. Regionally, ample deep-layer speed shear will aid in storm organization into organized multicells and probably several supercells. Damaging winds will be the most common hazard, but isolated large hail will be possible, and some tornado risk may exist as well. ...Oklahoma/North Texas... Have upgraded portions of central Oklahoma for what is expected to be a semi-focused regional corridor of large hail potential late this afternoon and early evening. The region will be influenced by the immediate backside of a southeastward-moving upper-level trough centered over the Lower Missouri Valley. A considerably strengthening cyclonically curved belt of westerlies aloft will influence Oklahoma, overspreading a relatively moist air mass, with lower to some middle 60s F surface dewpoints likely to persist through the diurnal heating/mixing cycle. Near a deepening surface low and nearby triple point/warm front, at least isolated storms are expected to develop as early as mid-afternoon (3-4pm), becoming more probable with a greater coverage through sunset. Overall buoyancy will not be robust, with MLCAPE generally not expected to exceed 1000 J/kg later this afternoon. However, this buoyancy, along with steep lapse rates and robustly vertically veering wind profiles, accentuated by 35-45 kt northwesterly mid/upper-level flow, should support initial supercells capable of large hail (potentially golfball size), along with some potential for damaging wind gusts. These storms will persist generally southeastward through the evening into southern/southeast Oklahoma, and probably north Texas overnight. Overall intensity will tend to wane nocturnally after sunset, but some severe hail/wind potential will probably linger, particularly on the west/southwest flank of any evolving clusters of storms, which will be increasingly elevated to the east of the warm front. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible through the afternoon across portions of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into the central/southern Appalachians. Severe storms will also be possible across portions of Oklahoma this evening. ...20Z Update... Severe probabilities were trimmed slightly eastward across portions of the OH and TN Valleys, where the surface trough/wind shift has passed by, reducing low-level convergence. Otherwise, multiple bands of multicells and transient supercells will continue to pose a threat for mainly damaging gusts through the evening, with a couple instances of severe hail or even a tornado possible. Despite the presence of mid-level clouds and lowering of surface dewpoints over central OK, adequate boundary-layer heating is contributing to continued destabilization, with 19Z mesoanalysis already showing over 1000 J/kg MLCAPE in place. Continued surface heating should support multicell/supercell development over the next few hours, with severe hail and wind gusts the main concerns. ..Squitieri.. 09/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1145 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024/ ...Ohio and Tennessee Valleys to southern Appalachians... Have spatially adjusted/expanded the Slight Risk based on observational trends and somewhat stronger destabilization across areas such as northern/middle Tennessee. Water-vapor imagery shows a mid-level vorticity maximum moving across the middle Mississippi Valley and into the Ohio Valley. A belt of moderate to strong southwesterly 500-mb flow (25-50 kt) will overspread Kentucky and the surrounding states. A surface low will migrate east-northeast into southern Lower Michigan by early evening, where isolated severe storms are possible, with a frontal zone extending south-southwest from this low into the Mid South. In the wake of early morning convection, modest cloud breaks/destabilization is forecast with upwards of 750-2000 J/kg MLCAPE from the southern Great Lakes into the southern Appalachians, with the strongest destabilization expected across Tennessee into southern Kentucky and possibly the western Carolinas pending the timing/abatement of lingering cloud cover. Regionally, ample deep-layer speed shear will aid in storm organization into organized multicells and probably several supercells. Damaging winds will be the most common hazard, but isolated large hail will be possible, and some tornado risk may exist as well. ...Oklahoma/North Texas... Have upgraded portions of central Oklahoma for what is expected to be a semi-focused regional corridor of large hail potential late this afternoon and early evening. The region will be influenced by the immediate backside of a southeastward-moving upper-level trough centered over the Lower Missouri Valley. A considerably strengthening cyclonically curved belt of westerlies aloft will influence Oklahoma, overspreading a relatively moist air mass, with lower to some middle 60s F surface dewpoints likely to persist through the diurnal heating/mixing cycle. Near a deepening surface low and nearby triple point/warm front, at least isolated storms are expected to develop as early as mid-afternoon (3-4pm), becoming more probable with a greater coverage through sunset. Overall buoyancy will not be robust, with MLCAPE generally not expected to exceed 1000 J/kg later this afternoon. However, this buoyancy, along with steep lapse rates and robustly vertically veering wind profiles, accentuated by 35-45 kt northwesterly mid/upper-level flow, should support initial supercells capable of large hail (potentially golfball size), along with some potential for damaging wind gusts. These storms will persist generally southeastward through the evening into southern/southeast Oklahoma, and probably north Texas overnight. Overall intensity will tend to wane nocturnally after sunset, but some severe hail/wind potential will probably linger, particularly on the west/southwest flank of any evolving clusters of storms, which will be increasingly elevated to the east of the warm front. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible through the afternoon across portions of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into the central/southern Appalachians. Severe storms will also be possible across portions of Oklahoma this evening. ...20Z Update... Severe probabilities were trimmed slightly eastward across portions of the OH and TN Valleys, where the surface trough/wind shift has passed by, reducing low-level convergence. Otherwise, multiple bands of multicells and transient supercells will continue to pose a threat for mainly damaging gusts through the evening, with a couple instances of severe hail or even a tornado possible. Despite the presence of mid-level clouds and lowering of surface dewpoints over central OK, adequate boundary-layer heating is contributing to continued destabilization, with 19Z mesoanalysis already showing over 1000 J/kg MLCAPE in place. Continued surface heating should support multicell/supercell development over the next few hours, with severe hail and wind gusts the main concerns. ..Squitieri.. 09/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1145 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024/ ...Ohio and Tennessee Valleys to southern Appalachians... Have spatially adjusted/expanded the Slight Risk based on observational trends and somewhat stronger destabilization across areas such as northern/middle Tennessee. Water-vapor imagery shows a mid-level vorticity maximum moving across the middle Mississippi Valley and into the Ohio Valley. A belt of moderate to strong southwesterly 500-mb flow (25-50 kt) will overspread Kentucky and the surrounding states. A surface low will migrate east-northeast into southern Lower Michigan by early evening, where isolated severe storms are possible, with a frontal zone extending south-southwest from this low into the Mid South. In the wake of early morning convection, modest cloud breaks/destabilization is forecast with upwards of 750-2000 J/kg MLCAPE from the southern Great Lakes into the southern Appalachians, with the strongest destabilization expected across Tennessee into southern Kentucky and possibly the western Carolinas pending the timing/abatement of lingering cloud cover. Regionally, ample deep-layer speed shear will aid in storm organization into organized multicells and probably several supercells. Damaging winds will be the most common hazard, but isolated large hail will be possible, and some tornado risk may exist as well. ...Oklahoma/North Texas... Have upgraded portions of central Oklahoma for what is expected to be a semi-focused regional corridor of large hail potential late this afternoon and early evening. The region will be influenced by the immediate backside of a southeastward-moving upper-level trough centered over the Lower Missouri Valley. A considerably strengthening cyclonically curved belt of westerlies aloft will influence Oklahoma, overspreading a relatively moist air mass, with lower to some middle 60s F surface dewpoints likely to persist through the diurnal heating/mixing cycle. Near a deepening surface low and nearby triple point/warm front, at least isolated storms are expected to develop as early as mid-afternoon (3-4pm), becoming more probable with a greater coverage through sunset. Overall buoyancy will not be robust, with MLCAPE generally not expected to exceed 1000 J/kg later this afternoon. However, this buoyancy, along with steep lapse rates and robustly vertically veering wind profiles, accentuated by 35-45 kt northwesterly mid/upper-level flow, should support initial supercells capable of large hail (potentially golfball size), along with some potential for damaging wind gusts. These storms will persist generally southeastward through the evening into southern/southeast Oklahoma, and probably north Texas overnight. Overall intensity will tend to wane nocturnally after sunset, but some severe hail/wind potential will probably linger, particularly on the west/southwest flank of any evolving clusters of storms, which will be increasingly elevated to the east of the warm front. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...AND SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Tropical Cyclone Helene is forecast to move inland across northern Florida and Georgia on Thursday. A risk for tropical-cyclone tornadoes will accompany this system, particularly from the central Florida Peninsula into southeast Georgia and southern South Carolina. ...FL/GA/SC - Tropical Cyclone Helene... Tropical Cyclone Helene is forecast to be a major hurricane in the eastern Gulf of Mexico early Thursday morning. Current forecast track from the National Hurricane Center takes this system quickly north-northeastward to the FL Big Bend vicinity by 00Z Friday before it then tracks more north-northwesterly into northern GA by 12Z Friday. This progression places the much of the FL Peninsula, central to southeast GA, and much of SC with the eastern semi-circle of the storm during the period. A preceding maritime tropical airmass is already in place, with additional moistening anticipated as the storm moves through. This favorable low-level moisture is expected to result in at least modest buoyancy capable of supporting deeper, more persistent updrafts. Intense low to mid-level wind fields will be colocated with this buoyancy, contributing to increased chance for tropical-cyclone related tornadoes. ..Mosier.. 09/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...AND SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Tropical Cyclone Helene is forecast to move inland across northern Florida and Georgia on Thursday. A risk for tropical-cyclone tornadoes will accompany this system, particularly from the central Florida Peninsula into southeast Georgia and southern South Carolina. ...FL/GA/SC - Tropical Cyclone Helene... Tropical Cyclone Helene is forecast to be a major hurricane in the eastern Gulf of Mexico early Thursday morning. Current forecast track from the National Hurricane Center takes this system quickly north-northeastward to the FL Big Bend vicinity by 00Z Friday before it then tracks more north-northwesterly into northern GA by 12Z Friday. This progression places the much of the FL Peninsula, central to southeast GA, and much of SC with the eastern semi-circle of the storm during the period. A preceding maritime tropical airmass is already in place, with additional moistening anticipated as the storm moves through. This favorable low-level moisture is expected to result in at least modest buoyancy capable of supporting deeper, more persistent updrafts. Intense low to mid-level wind fields will be colocated with this buoyancy, contributing to increased chance for tropical-cyclone related tornadoes. ..Mosier.. 09/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...AND SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Tropical Cyclone Helene is forecast to move inland across northern Florida and Georgia on Thursday. A risk for tropical-cyclone tornadoes will accompany this system, particularly from the central Florida Peninsula into southeast Georgia and southern South Carolina. ...FL/GA/SC - Tropical Cyclone Helene... Tropical Cyclone Helene is forecast to be a major hurricane in the eastern Gulf of Mexico early Thursday morning. Current forecast track from the National Hurricane Center takes this system quickly north-northeastward to the FL Big Bend vicinity by 00Z Friday before it then tracks more north-northwesterly into northern GA by 12Z Friday. This progression places the much of the FL Peninsula, central to southeast GA, and much of SC with the eastern semi-circle of the storm during the period. A preceding maritime tropical airmass is already in place, with additional moistening anticipated as the storm moves through. This favorable low-level moisture is expected to result in at least modest buoyancy capable of supporting deeper, more persistent updrafts. Intense low to mid-level wind fields will be colocated with this buoyancy, contributing to increased chance for tropical-cyclone related tornadoes. ..Mosier.. 09/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...AND SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Tropical Cyclone Helene is forecast to move inland across northern Florida and Georgia on Thursday. A risk for tropical-cyclone tornadoes will accompany this system, particularly from the central Florida Peninsula into southeast Georgia and southern South Carolina. ...FL/GA/SC - Tropical Cyclone Helene... Tropical Cyclone Helene is forecast to be a major hurricane in the eastern Gulf of Mexico early Thursday morning. Current forecast track from the National Hurricane Center takes this system quickly north-northeastward to the FL Big Bend vicinity by 00Z Friday before it then tracks more north-northwesterly into northern GA by 12Z Friday. This progression places the much of the FL Peninsula, central to southeast GA, and much of SC with the eastern semi-circle of the storm during the period. A preceding maritime tropical airmass is already in place, with additional moistening anticipated as the storm moves through. This favorable low-level moisture is expected to result in at least modest buoyancy capable of supporting deeper, more persistent updrafts. Intense low to mid-level wind fields will be colocated with this buoyancy, contributing to increased chance for tropical-cyclone related tornadoes. ..Mosier.. 09/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...AND SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Tropical Cyclone Helene is forecast to move inland across northern Florida and Georgia on Thursday. A risk for tropical-cyclone tornadoes will accompany this system, particularly from the central Florida Peninsula into southeast Georgia and southern South Carolina. ...FL/GA/SC - Tropical Cyclone Helene... Tropical Cyclone Helene is forecast to be a major hurricane in the eastern Gulf of Mexico early Thursday morning. Current forecast track from the National Hurricane Center takes this system quickly north-northeastward to the FL Big Bend vicinity by 00Z Friday before it then tracks more north-northwesterly into northern GA by 12Z Friday. This progression places the much of the FL Peninsula, central to southeast GA, and much of SC with the eastern semi-circle of the storm during the period. A preceding maritime tropical airmass is already in place, with additional moistening anticipated as the storm moves through. This favorable low-level moisture is expected to result in at least modest buoyancy capable of supporting deeper, more persistent updrafts. Intense low to mid-level wind fields will be colocated with this buoyancy, contributing to increased chance for tropical-cyclone related tornadoes. ..Mosier.. 09/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...AND SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Tropical Cyclone Helene is forecast to move inland across northern Florida and Georgia on Thursday. A risk for tropical-cyclone tornadoes will accompany this system, particularly from the central Florida Peninsula into southeast Georgia and southern South Carolina. ...FL/GA/SC - Tropical Cyclone Helene... Tropical Cyclone Helene is forecast to be a major hurricane in the eastern Gulf of Mexico early Thursday morning. Current forecast track from the National Hurricane Center takes this system quickly north-northeastward to the FL Big Bend vicinity by 00Z Friday before it then tracks more north-northwesterly into northern GA by 12Z Friday. This progression places the much of the FL Peninsula, central to southeast GA, and much of SC with the eastern semi-circle of the storm during the period. A preceding maritime tropical airmass is already in place, with additional moistening anticipated as the storm moves through. This favorable low-level moisture is expected to result in at least modest buoyancy capable of supporting deeper, more persistent updrafts. Intense low to mid-level wind fields will be colocated with this buoyancy, contributing to increased chance for tropical-cyclone related tornadoes. ..Mosier.. 09/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...AND SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Tropical Cyclone Helene is forecast to move inland across northern Florida and Georgia on Thursday. A risk for tropical-cyclone tornadoes will accompany this system, particularly from the central Florida Peninsula into southeast Georgia and southern South Carolina. ...FL/GA/SC - Tropical Cyclone Helene... Tropical Cyclone Helene is forecast to be a major hurricane in the eastern Gulf of Mexico early Thursday morning. Current forecast track from the National Hurricane Center takes this system quickly north-northeastward to the FL Big Bend vicinity by 00Z Friday before it then tracks more north-northwesterly into northern GA by 12Z Friday. This progression places the much of the FL Peninsula, central to southeast GA, and much of SC with the eastern semi-circle of the storm during the period. A preceding maritime tropical airmass is already in place, with additional moistening anticipated as the storm moves through. This favorable low-level moisture is expected to result in at least modest buoyancy capable of supporting deeper, more persistent updrafts. Intense low to mid-level wind fields will be colocated with this buoyancy, contributing to increased chance for tropical-cyclone related tornadoes. ..Mosier.. 09/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...AND SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Tropical Cyclone Helene is forecast to move inland across northern Florida and Georgia on Thursday. A risk for tropical-cyclone tornadoes will accompany this system, particularly from the central Florida Peninsula into southeast Georgia and southern South Carolina. ...FL/GA/SC - Tropical Cyclone Helene... Tropical Cyclone Helene is forecast to be a major hurricane in the eastern Gulf of Mexico early Thursday morning. Current forecast track from the National Hurricane Center takes this system quickly north-northeastward to the FL Big Bend vicinity by 00Z Friday before it then tracks more north-northwesterly into northern GA by 12Z Friday. This progression places the much of the FL Peninsula, central to southeast GA, and much of SC with the eastern semi-circle of the storm during the period. A preceding maritime tropical airmass is already in place, with additional moistening anticipated as the storm moves through. This favorable low-level moisture is expected to result in at least modest buoyancy capable of supporting deeper, more persistent updrafts. Intense low to mid-level wind fields will be colocated with this buoyancy, contributing to increased chance for tropical-cyclone related tornadoes. ..Mosier.. 09/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...AND SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Tropical Cyclone Helene is forecast to move inland across northern Florida and Georgia on Thursday. A risk for tropical-cyclone tornadoes will accompany this system, particularly from the central Florida Peninsula into southeast Georgia and southern South Carolina. ...FL/GA/SC - Tropical Cyclone Helene... Tropical Cyclone Helene is forecast to be a major hurricane in the eastern Gulf of Mexico early Thursday morning. Current forecast track from the National Hurricane Center takes this system quickly north-northeastward to the FL Big Bend vicinity by 00Z Friday before it then tracks more north-northwesterly into northern GA by 12Z Friday. This progression places the much of the FL Peninsula, central to southeast GA, and much of SC with the eastern semi-circle of the storm during the period. A preceding maritime tropical airmass is already in place, with additional moistening anticipated as the storm moves through. This favorable low-level moisture is expected to result in at least modest buoyancy capable of supporting deeper, more persistent updrafts. Intense low to mid-level wind fields will be colocated with this buoyancy, contributing to increased chance for tropical-cyclone related tornadoes. ..Mosier.. 09/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...AND SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Tropical Cyclone Helene is forecast to move inland across northern Florida and Georgia on Thursday. A risk for tropical-cyclone tornadoes will accompany this system, particularly from the central Florida Peninsula into southeast Georgia and southern South Carolina. ...FL/GA/SC - Tropical Cyclone Helene... Tropical Cyclone Helene is forecast to be a major hurricane in the eastern Gulf of Mexico early Thursday morning. Current forecast track from the National Hurricane Center takes this system quickly north-northeastward to the FL Big Bend vicinity by 00Z Friday before it then tracks more north-northwesterly into northern GA by 12Z Friday. This progression places the much of the FL Peninsula, central to southeast GA, and much of SC with the eastern semi-circle of the storm during the period. A preceding maritime tropical airmass is already in place, with additional moistening anticipated as the storm moves through. This favorable low-level moisture is expected to result in at least modest buoyancy capable of supporting deeper, more persistent updrafts. Intense low to mid-level wind fields will be colocated with this buoyancy, contributing to increased chance for tropical-cyclone related tornadoes. ..Mosier.. 09/24/2024 Read more