Aggregator

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 212331
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sat Sep 21 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southern Mexico:
A trough of low pressure is producing a large area of showers and
thunderstorms located a few hundred miles south of the coast of
southern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some
slow development of this system while it meanders offshore the next
few days, and a tropical depression could form during the early or
middle part of next week when the system begins to move slowly
eastward or northeastward toward the coast of southern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Central Portion of the East Pacific:
An area of low pressure could form well to the southwest of the
southwestern coast of Mexico during the next couple of days.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for some slow development
of this system, and a tropical depression could form during the
early or middle part of next week while the system moves slowly
eastward or northeastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Sep 21 23:00:09 UTC 2024.

WW 0680 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 680 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 WNW GDP TO 20 WSW CNM TO 25 NW CNM TO 20 S ROW TO 10 NW ROW TO 50 NNW ROW TO 35 ENE 4CR TO 55 NNE 4CR TO 30 SSE SAF. ..JEWELL..09/21/24 ATTN...WFO...ABQ...MAF...AMA...LUB... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 680 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NMC005-009-011-015-019-021-025-033-037-041-047-220040- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHAVES CURRY DE BACA EDDY GUADALUPE HARDING LEA MORA QUAY ROOSEVELT SAN MIGUEL TXC011-017-045-065-069-079-117-129-153-165-179-189-205-219-233- 279-303-341-359-369-375-381-393-437-445-501-220040- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARMSTRONG BAILEY BRISCOE CARSON CASTRO COCHRAN DEAF SMITH DONLEY FLOYD GAINES GRAY HALE HARTLEY HOCKLEY HUTCHINSON LAMB LUBBOCK MOORE OLDHAM PARMER POTTER Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 291200Z A complicated/chaotic upper-air pattern will evolve across the United States this week. Early in the week, the upper-low across the Southwest this weekend will continue to open up and lift in/through the Plains. In its wake, an expansive ridge will take hold across the West, driving a short-wave trough southward through the Plains, by midweek. By late week, a series of short-wave troughs will move across the Pacific Northwest coincident with a closed low developing across the southern Plains. The result will be cooler/wetter pattern across southern Plains and eastern United States. Across the west, although a ridge will develop by early week, generally weak flow and unreceptive fuels will limit fire-weather concerns. Thus, large-scale critical fire-weather concerns appear to be minimal this week. ..Marsh.. 09/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 291200Z A complicated/chaotic upper-air pattern will evolve across the United States this week. Early in the week, the upper-low across the Southwest this weekend will continue to open up and lift in/through the Plains. In its wake, an expansive ridge will take hold across the West, driving a short-wave trough southward through the Plains, by midweek. By late week, a series of short-wave troughs will move across the Pacific Northwest coincident with a closed low developing across the southern Plains. The result will be cooler/wetter pattern across southern Plains and eastern United States. Across the west, although a ridge will develop by early week, generally weak flow and unreceptive fuels will limit fire-weather concerns. Thus, large-scale critical fire-weather concerns appear to be minimal this week. ..Marsh.. 09/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 291200Z A complicated/chaotic upper-air pattern will evolve across the United States this week. Early in the week, the upper-low across the Southwest this weekend will continue to open up and lift in/through the Plains. In its wake, an expansive ridge will take hold across the West, driving a short-wave trough southward through the Plains, by midweek. By late week, a series of short-wave troughs will move across the Pacific Northwest coincident with a closed low developing across the southern Plains. The result will be cooler/wetter pattern across southern Plains and eastern United States. Across the west, although a ridge will develop by early week, generally weak flow and unreceptive fuels will limit fire-weather concerns. Thus, large-scale critical fire-weather concerns appear to be minimal this week. ..Marsh.. 09/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 291200Z A complicated/chaotic upper-air pattern will evolve across the United States this week. Early in the week, the upper-low across the Southwest this weekend will continue to open up and lift in/through the Plains. In its wake, an expansive ridge will take hold across the West, driving a short-wave trough southward through the Plains, by midweek. By late week, a series of short-wave troughs will move across the Pacific Northwest coincident with a closed low developing across the southern Plains. The result will be cooler/wetter pattern across southern Plains and eastern United States. Across the west, although a ridge will develop by early week, generally weak flow and unreceptive fuels will limit fire-weather concerns. Thus, large-scale critical fire-weather concerns appear to be minimal this week. ..Marsh.. 09/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 291200Z A complicated/chaotic upper-air pattern will evolve across the United States this week. Early in the week, the upper-low across the Southwest this weekend will continue to open up and lift in/through the Plains. In its wake, an expansive ridge will take hold across the West, driving a short-wave trough southward through the Plains, by midweek. By late week, a series of short-wave troughs will move across the Pacific Northwest coincident with a closed low developing across the southern Plains. The result will be cooler/wetter pattern across southern Plains and eastern United States. Across the west, although a ridge will develop by early week, generally weak flow and unreceptive fuels will limit fire-weather concerns. Thus, large-scale critical fire-weather concerns appear to be minimal this week. ..Marsh.. 09/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 291200Z A complicated/chaotic upper-air pattern will evolve across the United States this week. Early in the week, the upper-low across the Southwest this weekend will continue to open up and lift in/through the Plains. In its wake, an expansive ridge will take hold across the West, driving a short-wave trough southward through the Plains, by midweek. By late week, a series of short-wave troughs will move across the Pacific Northwest coincident with a closed low developing across the southern Plains. The result will be cooler/wetter pattern across southern Plains and eastern United States. Across the west, although a ridge will develop by early week, generally weak flow and unreceptive fuels will limit fire-weather concerns. Thus, large-scale critical fire-weather concerns appear to be minimal this week. ..Marsh.. 09/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 291200Z A complicated/chaotic upper-air pattern will evolve across the United States this week. Early in the week, the upper-low across the Southwest this weekend will continue to open up and lift in/through the Plains. In its wake, an expansive ridge will take hold across the West, driving a short-wave trough southward through the Plains, by midweek. By late week, a series of short-wave troughs will move across the Pacific Northwest coincident with a closed low developing across the southern Plains. The result will be cooler/wetter pattern across southern Plains and eastern United States. Across the west, although a ridge will develop by early week, generally weak flow and unreceptive fuels will limit fire-weather concerns. Thus, large-scale critical fire-weather concerns appear to be minimal this week. ..Marsh.. 09/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 291200Z A complicated/chaotic upper-air pattern will evolve across the United States this week. Early in the week, the upper-low across the Southwest this weekend will continue to open up and lift in/through the Plains. In its wake, an expansive ridge will take hold across the West, driving a short-wave trough southward through the Plains, by midweek. By late week, a series of short-wave troughs will move across the Pacific Northwest coincident with a closed low developing across the southern Plains. The result will be cooler/wetter pattern across southern Plains and eastern United States. Across the west, although a ridge will develop by early week, generally weak flow and unreceptive fuels will limit fire-weather concerns. Thus, large-scale critical fire-weather concerns appear to be minimal this week. ..Marsh.. 09/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 291200Z A complicated/chaotic upper-air pattern will evolve across the United States this week. Early in the week, the upper-low across the Southwest this weekend will continue to open up and lift in/through the Plains. In its wake, an expansive ridge will take hold across the West, driving a short-wave trough southward through the Plains, by midweek. By late week, a series of short-wave troughs will move across the Pacific Northwest coincident with a closed low developing across the southern Plains. The result will be cooler/wetter pattern across southern Plains and eastern United States. Across the west, although a ridge will develop by early week, generally weak flow and unreceptive fuels will limit fire-weather concerns. Thus, large-scale critical fire-weather concerns appear to be minimal this week. ..Marsh.. 09/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 291200Z A complicated/chaotic upper-air pattern will evolve across the United States this week. Early in the week, the upper-low across the Southwest this weekend will continue to open up and lift in/through the Plains. In its wake, an expansive ridge will take hold across the West, driving a short-wave trough southward through the Plains, by midweek. By late week, a series of short-wave troughs will move across the Pacific Northwest coincident with a closed low developing across the southern Plains. The result will be cooler/wetter pattern across southern Plains and eastern United States. Across the west, although a ridge will develop by early week, generally weak flow and unreceptive fuels will limit fire-weather concerns. Thus, large-scale critical fire-weather concerns appear to be minimal this week. ..Marsh.. 09/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 291200Z A complicated/chaotic upper-air pattern will evolve across the United States this week. Early in the week, the upper-low across the Southwest this weekend will continue to open up and lift in/through the Plains. In its wake, an expansive ridge will take hold across the West, driving a short-wave trough southward through the Plains, by midweek. By late week, a series of short-wave troughs will move across the Pacific Northwest coincident with a closed low developing across the southern Plains. The result will be cooler/wetter pattern across southern Plains and eastern United States. Across the west, although a ridge will develop by early week, generally weak flow and unreceptive fuels will limit fire-weather concerns. Thus, large-scale critical fire-weather concerns appear to be minimal this week. ..Marsh.. 09/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 2095 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR WESTERN NEW YORK...WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA...SOUTHEASTERN OHIO...MUCH OF WEST VIRGINIA...WESTERN VIRGINIA...AND THE WESTERN MARYLAND PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 2095 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Areas affected...western New York...western Pennsylvania...southeastern Ohio...much of West Virginia...western Virginia...and the western Maryland Panhandle Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 211837Z - 212100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A few strong thunderstorms briefly reaching marginal severe levels can be expected through this afternoon. Marginal hail and tree damage can be expected locally. However, the very isolated/marginal nature of the risk currently expected should preclude the need for WW consideration. DISCUSSION...A weak cool front will continue moving southeastward across the Mid and Upper Ohio Valley area and into the central Appalachians today, as a vort max near Lake Huron shifts across the Lower Great Lakes toward the Chesapeake Bay area this afternoon and tonight. Ahead of the front, a modestly moist boundary layer (low 60s dewpoints) combined with warm-sector heating is resulting in around 1000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE across much of the area, though into the 1500 to 2000 J/kg range over the middle Ohio Valley portion of the region. This destabilization is fueling a gradual increase in convective coverage and intensity near and ahead of the front -- from southeastern Ohio to southwestern New York. Though low-level flow remains weak, moderate mid-level northwesterlies are contributing to an environment amply sheared to support organized updrafts. As such, locally strong/briefly vigorous updrafts will likely be associated with marginal severe potential into early evening -- with risk spreading gradually eastward/southeastward with time. ..Goss/Guyer.. 09/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX... LAT...LON 39598204 39888105 40368027 40797954 41487892 42507897 42717843 42207672 41327693 38777771 37647890 37308026 38618177 39598204 Read more

WW 0680 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0680 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0680 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0680 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0680 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0680 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 680 SEVERE TSTM NM TX 212030Z - 220400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 680 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 230 PM MDT Sat Sep 21 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern New Mexico West Texas South Plains and Panhandle * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 230 PM until 1000 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Severe storms are expected to develop initially across a broad north/south part of eastern New Mexico this afternoon, as well as near the New Mexico/Texas border vicinity. This includes the potential for some supercell storms. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 105 statute miles north and south of a line from 50 miles west northwest of Roswell NM to 55 miles southeast of Amarillo TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25030. ...Guyer Read more

No watches are valid as of Sat Sep 21 20:16:01 UTC 2024.