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WW 0686 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 686 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..JEWELL..09/27/24 ATTN...WFO...JAX...MLB...TBW...TAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 686 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC001-003-007-009-015-017-019-023-027-029-031-035-041-047-049- 053-055-057-065-067-069-071-075-079-081-083-089-095-097-101-103- 105-107-109-115-117-119-121-123-125-127-270440- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALACHUA BAKER BRADFORD BREVARD CHARLOTTE CITRUS CLAY COLUMBIA DESOTO DIXIE DUVAL FLAGLER GILCHRIST HAMILTON HARDEE HERNANDO HIGHLANDS HILLSBOROUGH JEFFERSON LAFAYETTE LAKE LEE LEVY MADISON MANATEE MARION NASSAU ORANGE OSCEOLA PASCO PINELLAS POLK PUTNAM ST. JOHNS SARASOTA SEMINOLE SUMTER SUWANNEE TAYLOR UNION VOLUSIA GAC001-003-005-017-019-025-027-039-049-065-069-071-075-101-127- 155-161-173-185-229-275-277-287-299-305-321-270440- Read more

WW 0687 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 687 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..JEWELL..09/27/24 ATTN...WFO...FFC...CHS...CAE...RAH...ILM...GSP... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 687 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS GAC009-021-023-029-031-033-043-051-073-081-091-093-103-107-109- 125-141-153-163-165-167-169-175-179-181-183-189-191-209-235-245- 251-265-267-271-279-283-289-301-303-309-315-317-319-270440- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BALDWIN BIBB BLECKLEY BRYAN BULLOCH BURKE CANDLER CHATHAM COLUMBIA CRISP DODGE DOOLY EFFINGHAM EMANUEL EVANS GLASCOCK HANCOCK HOUSTON JEFFERSON JENKINS JOHNSON JONES LAURENS LIBERTY LINCOLN LONG MCDUFFIE MCINTOSH MONTGOMERY PULASKI RICHMOND SCREVEN TALIAFERRO TATTNALL TELFAIR TOOMBS TREUTLEN TWIGGS WARREN WASHINGTON WHEELER WILCOX WILKES WILKINSON NCC007-017-019-025-047-051-071-093-119-129-141-153-155-163-165- 179-270440- Read more

WW 0687 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 687 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..JEWELL..09/27/24 ATTN...WFO...FFC...CHS...CAE...RAH...ILM...GSP... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 687 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS GAC009-021-023-029-031-033-043-051-073-081-091-093-103-107-109- 125-141-153-163-165-167-169-175-179-181-183-189-191-209-235-245- 251-265-267-271-279-283-289-301-303-309-315-317-319-270440- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BALDWIN BIBB BLECKLEY BRYAN BULLOCH BURKE CANDLER CHATHAM COLUMBIA CRISP DODGE DOOLY EFFINGHAM EMANUEL EVANS GLASCOCK HANCOCK HOUSTON JEFFERSON JENKINS JOHNSON JONES LAURENS LIBERTY LINCOLN LONG MCDUFFIE MCINTOSH MONTGOMERY PULASKI RICHMOND SCREVEN TALIAFERRO TATTNALL TELFAIR TOOMBS TREUTLEN TWIGGS WARREN WASHINGTON WHEELER WILCOX WILKES WILKINSON NCC007-017-019-025-047-051-071-093-119-129-141-153-155-163-165- 179-270440- Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 27 Sep 2024 02:35:42 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 27 Sep 2024 03:35:43 GMT

Issued at 900 PM CST Thu Sep 26 2024 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 270235 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm John Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024 900 PM CST Thu Sep 26 2024 The convection near the center of John has weakened significantly over the past 12 hours. A curved band off to the southwest and west of John's center is producing a continuous large area of deep convection. Subjective Dvorak current intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB range from 65 to 77 kt, but the objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS range from 49 to 56 kt. Since the convection over the center has warmed on infrared imagery and appears to be less organized over the past 12 hours, the initial intensity is being lowered to 60 kt for this advisory. John has been moving northwestward, or 315/4 kt, which is a bit faster than before. This slow motion is forecast to continue for another 12 to 24 h, as John moves near the coastline or just inland late tonight and early tomorrow. After that, a turn to the west-northwest with some acceleration is forecast, if John survives its interaction with the higher topography in this part of Mexico. The latest track forecast is a little to the left and slightly faster than the previous forecast, and is very near the lastest HCCA corrected consensus aid. It seems unlikely that John will be able to restrengthen since the center is now just 20 miles from the coastline and is forecast to move even closer to the coast over the next several hours. Since John's core has been disrupted by the topography today, it is unlikely to recover, despite relatively favorable environmental conditions. Little change in strength, or perhaps slow weakening, is likely over the next 12 hours until the center reaches the coastline. Thereafter, faster weakening is expected on Friday as the center moves near or along the coastline. The latest NHC intensity forecast is near the middle of the intensity guidance suite. It is quite possible that John could weaken to a remnant low and dissipate sooner than forecast. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Tropical Storm John will bring additional very heavy rainfall to coastal portions of southwest Mexico through Friday. The additional rainfall totals will be falling across areas that have received very heavy rainfall amounts over the past few days. This heavy rainfall will likely cause significant and catastrophic life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides to the Mexican States of Guerrero and Michoacán. 2. John is forecast to continue bringing tropical storm conditions across portions of the Tropical Storm Warnings area through Friday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0300Z 17.9N 103.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 27/1200Z 18.3N 103.4W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 24H 28/0000Z 19.0N 104.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER 36H 28/1200Z 19.5N 105.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 29/0000Z 20.2N 107.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 29/1200Z 20.8N 108.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 30/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hagen

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 27 2024 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 270234 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM JOHN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102024 0300 UTC FRI SEP 27 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOHN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X 6( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) MANZANILLO 34 4 35(39) 1(40) X(40) 1(41) X(41) X(41) MANZANILLO 50 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) L CARDENAS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ZIHUATANEJO 34 5 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER HAGEN

Issued at 900 PM CST Thu Sep 26 2024 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 270234 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm John Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024 900 PM CST Thu Sep 26 2024 ...CENTER OF JOHN JUST OFFSHORE THE COAST OF THE MEXICAN STATE OF MICHOACAN... ...CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ONGOING OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.9N 103.2W ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM W OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM SE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Hurricane Warning from Zihuatanejo to Punta San Telmo has been changed to a Tropical Storm Warning. The Hurricane Watch from Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta Maldonado to Manzanillo A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM CST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm John was located near latitude 17.9 North, longitude 103.2 West. John is moving toward the northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through early Friday morning. On the forecast track, the center of John is forecast to approach and move along the coast of southwestern Mexico or just inland later tonight or early Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected tonight, with faster weakening forecast on Friday while the center interacts more with the topography of Mexico. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb (29.06 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Through Friday, Tropical Storm John is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 10 to 20 inches across portions of the Mexican States of Guerrero and Michoacán. Additional rainfall of 2 to 4 inches with locally up to 6 inches is expected across the Mexican states of Colima and western Oaxaca. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with John, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: Storm surge is likely to produce coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large waves. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue across coastal portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area through Friday afternoon. SURF: Swells associated with John are forecast to continue to affect the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico through Friday night or Saturday, with the potential for dangerous surf and rip currents. Please see local statements for more information. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM CST. Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Hagen

...CENTER OF JOHN JUST OFFSHORE THE COAST OF THE MEXICAN STATE OF MICHOACAN... ...CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ONGOING OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... As of 9:00 PM CST Thu Sep 26 the center of John was located near 17.9, -103.2 with movement NW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 984 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 27 2024 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 270233 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM JOHN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102024 0300 UTC FRI SEP 27 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 103.2W AT 27/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 30SE 25SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 140SE 60SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 330SE 300SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 103.2W AT 27/0300Z AT 27/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 103.1W FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 18.3N 103.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 15NW. 34 KT... 30NE 90SE 40SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 19.0N 104.4W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 10NE 30SE 20SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 19.5N 105.7W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 20.2N 107.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 20.8N 108.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.9N 103.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 27/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0900Z $$ FORECASTER HAGEN

MD 2120 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 684... FOR FROM JACKSONVILLE NORTHWARD ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS
Mesoscale Discussion 2120 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0539 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Areas affected...from Jacksonville northward across much of southeast Georgia and the Carolinas Concerning...Tornado Watch 684... Valid 262239Z - 270315Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 684 continues. SUMMARY...The risk of tornadoes is likely to increase/spread northward through tonight across southeast Georgia, eastern South Carolina and southeast North Carolina. An isolated strong tornado cannot be ruled out. DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows a warm front/boundary from southern GA to just off the SC Coast this evening. South of this boundary, deeper tropical moisture exists with upper 70s F to near 80 F dewpoints, and as such, MLCAPE near the coast is already near 1000 J/kg, with larger values over 1500 J/kg off the eastern FL Peninsula. As Hurricane Helene continues northward this evening, wind fields across the region will strengthen, with 850 mb winds increasing dramatically after about 03Z. As such, the surface warm front will move ashore into SC, with further destabilization over parts of southeast GA as well. Effective SRH of 300-500 m2/s2 coincident with the instability axis will be common this evening, with even stronger shear but lower instability along the western fringe of the warm sector. An initial band of convection currently extends into the Jacksonville FL area, and embedded cells could rotate an produce a brief tornado. Additional bands of storms are likely to develop this evening and tonight as the warm advection processes increase. Given such strong shear, an isolated strong tornado cannot be ruled out late. ..Jewell.. 09/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC... LAT...LON 31907960 31088013 30598032 30148070 30028098 30028114 30378167 30598227 30838293 31168292 31708266 32898197 33368153 33958106 34827946 34867847 34767791 34337752 34057749 33697764 32917843 32497896 31907960 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR COASTAL REGIONS OF NORTHEAST FL...GA...SC...AND SOUTHERN NC... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes remain possible through tonight across the coastal Southeast in association with Hurricane Helene. The greatest relative threat is expected across parts of Florida into southeast Georgia, the Midlands and Low Country of South Carolina, and southern North Carolina. ...FL/GA into the Carolinas... Hurricane Helene will be making landfall this evening near the Florida Big Bend region, and continue moving quickly northward across Georgia into the overnight hours, per NHC forecasts. Wind profiles are already favorable for tornadic supercells across a broad region to the east/northeast of Helene, across parts of FL/GA into the Carolinas. Low-level shear/SRH will become extreme later tonight from north FL into eastern GA and the Carolinas, as Helene's large and intense wind field spreads over the region. Low-topped supercells with at least transient rotation are ongoing across parts of FL/GA into the Carolinas, and will likely continue through the evening. CAM guidance generally suggests that one or more bands of supercells will develop and/or persist into the overnight hours across parts of GA/SC and eventually into NC before 12Z Friday morning, in advance of an increasingly prominent midlevel dry slot. Tropical moisture (with dewpoints into the upper 70s F) will also be drawn farther inland during this time period, with MLCAPE increasing to near or above 1000 J/kg across coastal areas, with greater than 500 J/kg farther inland. This environment will support the potential for several nocturnal tornadoes. ..Dean.. 09/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR COASTAL REGIONS OF NORTHEAST FL...GA...SC...AND SOUTHERN NC... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes remain possible through tonight across the coastal Southeast in association with Hurricane Helene. The greatest relative threat is expected across parts of Florida into southeast Georgia, the Midlands and Low Country of South Carolina, and southern North Carolina. ...FL/GA into the Carolinas... Hurricane Helene will be making landfall this evening near the Florida Big Bend region, and continue moving quickly northward across Georgia into the overnight hours, per NHC forecasts. Wind profiles are already favorable for tornadic supercells across a broad region to the east/northeast of Helene, across parts of FL/GA into the Carolinas. Low-level shear/SRH will become extreme later tonight from north FL into eastern GA and the Carolinas, as Helene's large and intense wind field spreads over the region. Low-topped supercells with at least transient rotation are ongoing across parts of FL/GA into the Carolinas, and will likely continue through the evening. CAM guidance generally suggests that one or more bands of supercells will develop and/or persist into the overnight hours across parts of GA/SC and eventually into NC before 12Z Friday morning, in advance of an increasingly prominent midlevel dry slot. Tropical moisture (with dewpoints into the upper 70s F) will also be drawn farther inland during this time period, with MLCAPE increasing to near or above 1000 J/kg across coastal areas, with greater than 500 J/kg farther inland. This environment will support the potential for several nocturnal tornadoes. ..Dean.. 09/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR COASTAL REGIONS OF NORTHEAST FL...GA...SC...AND SOUTHERN NC... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes remain possible through tonight across the coastal Southeast in association with Hurricane Helene. The greatest relative threat is expected across parts of Florida into southeast Georgia, the Midlands and Low Country of South Carolina, and southern North Carolina. ...FL/GA into the Carolinas... Hurricane Helene will be making landfall this evening near the Florida Big Bend region, and continue moving quickly northward across Georgia into the overnight hours, per NHC forecasts. Wind profiles are already favorable for tornadic supercells across a broad region to the east/northeast of Helene, across parts of FL/GA into the Carolinas. Low-level shear/SRH will become extreme later tonight from north FL into eastern GA and the Carolinas, as Helene's large and intense wind field spreads over the region. Low-topped supercells with at least transient rotation are ongoing across parts of FL/GA into the Carolinas, and will likely continue through the evening. CAM guidance generally suggests that one or more bands of supercells will develop and/or persist into the overnight hours across parts of GA/SC and eventually into NC before 12Z Friday morning, in advance of an increasingly prominent midlevel dry slot. Tropical moisture (with dewpoints into the upper 70s F) will also be drawn farther inland during this time period, with MLCAPE increasing to near or above 1000 J/kg across coastal areas, with greater than 500 J/kg farther inland. This environment will support the potential for several nocturnal tornadoes. ..Dean.. 09/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR COASTAL REGIONS OF NORTHEAST FL...GA...SC...AND SOUTHERN NC... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes remain possible through tonight across the coastal Southeast in association with Hurricane Helene. The greatest relative threat is expected across parts of Florida into southeast Georgia, the Midlands and Low Country of South Carolina, and southern North Carolina. ...FL/GA into the Carolinas... Hurricane Helene will be making landfall this evening near the Florida Big Bend region, and continue moving quickly northward across Georgia into the overnight hours, per NHC forecasts. Wind profiles are already favorable for tornadic supercells across a broad region to the east/northeast of Helene, across parts of FL/GA into the Carolinas. Low-level shear/SRH will become extreme later tonight from north FL into eastern GA and the Carolinas, as Helene's large and intense wind field spreads over the region. Low-topped supercells with at least transient rotation are ongoing across parts of FL/GA into the Carolinas, and will likely continue through the evening. CAM guidance generally suggests that one or more bands of supercells will develop and/or persist into the overnight hours across parts of GA/SC and eventually into NC before 12Z Friday morning, in advance of an increasingly prominent midlevel dry slot. Tropical moisture (with dewpoints into the upper 70s F) will also be drawn farther inland during this time period, with MLCAPE increasing to near or above 1000 J/kg across coastal areas, with greater than 500 J/kg farther inland. This environment will support the potential for several nocturnal tornadoes. ..Dean.. 09/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR COASTAL REGIONS OF NORTHEAST FL...GA...SC...AND SOUTHERN NC... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes remain possible through tonight across the coastal Southeast in association with Hurricane Helene. The greatest relative threat is expected across parts of Florida into southeast Georgia, the Midlands and Low Country of South Carolina, and southern North Carolina. ...FL/GA into the Carolinas... Hurricane Helene will be making landfall this evening near the Florida Big Bend region, and continue moving quickly northward across Georgia into the overnight hours, per NHC forecasts. Wind profiles are already favorable for tornadic supercells across a broad region to the east/northeast of Helene, across parts of FL/GA into the Carolinas. Low-level shear/SRH will become extreme later tonight from north FL into eastern GA and the Carolinas, as Helene's large and intense wind field spreads over the region. Low-topped supercells with at least transient rotation are ongoing across parts of FL/GA into the Carolinas, and will likely continue through the evening. CAM guidance generally suggests that one or more bands of supercells will develop and/or persist into the overnight hours across parts of GA/SC and eventually into NC before 12Z Friday morning, in advance of an increasingly prominent midlevel dry slot. Tropical moisture (with dewpoints into the upper 70s F) will also be drawn farther inland during this time period, with MLCAPE increasing to near or above 1000 J/kg across coastal areas, with greater than 500 J/kg farther inland. This environment will support the potential for several nocturnal tornadoes. ..Dean.. 09/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR COASTAL REGIONS OF NORTHEAST FL...GA...SC...AND SOUTHERN NC... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes remain possible through tonight across the coastal Southeast in association with Hurricane Helene. The greatest relative threat is expected across parts of Florida into southeast Georgia, the Midlands and Low Country of South Carolina, and southern North Carolina. ...FL/GA into the Carolinas... Hurricane Helene will be making landfall this evening near the Florida Big Bend region, and continue moving quickly northward across Georgia into the overnight hours, per NHC forecasts. Wind profiles are already favorable for tornadic supercells across a broad region to the east/northeast of Helene, across parts of FL/GA into the Carolinas. Low-level shear/SRH will become extreme later tonight from north FL into eastern GA and the Carolinas, as Helene's large and intense wind field spreads over the region. Low-topped supercells with at least transient rotation are ongoing across parts of FL/GA into the Carolinas, and will likely continue through the evening. CAM guidance generally suggests that one or more bands of supercells will develop and/or persist into the overnight hours across parts of GA/SC and eventually into NC before 12Z Friday morning, in advance of an increasingly prominent midlevel dry slot. Tropical moisture (with dewpoints into the upper 70s F) will also be drawn farther inland during this time period, with MLCAPE increasing to near or above 1000 J/kg across coastal areas, with greater than 500 J/kg farther inland. This environment will support the potential for several nocturnal tornadoes. ..Dean.. 09/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR COASTAL REGIONS OF NORTHEAST FL...GA...SC...AND SOUTHERN NC... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes remain possible through tonight across the coastal Southeast in association with Hurricane Helene. The greatest relative threat is expected across parts of Florida into southeast Georgia, the Midlands and Low Country of South Carolina, and southern North Carolina. ...FL/GA into the Carolinas... Hurricane Helene will be making landfall this evening near the Florida Big Bend region, and continue moving quickly northward across Georgia into the overnight hours, per NHC forecasts. Wind profiles are already favorable for tornadic supercells across a broad region to the east/northeast of Helene, across parts of FL/GA into the Carolinas. Low-level shear/SRH will become extreme later tonight from north FL into eastern GA and the Carolinas, as Helene's large and intense wind field spreads over the region. Low-topped supercells with at least transient rotation are ongoing across parts of FL/GA into the Carolinas, and will likely continue through the evening. CAM guidance generally suggests that one or more bands of supercells will develop and/or persist into the overnight hours across parts of GA/SC and eventually into NC before 12Z Friday morning, in advance of an increasingly prominent midlevel dry slot. Tropical moisture (with dewpoints into the upper 70s F) will also be drawn farther inland during this time period, with MLCAPE increasing to near or above 1000 J/kg across coastal areas, with greater than 500 J/kg farther inland. This environment will support the potential for several nocturnal tornadoes. ..Dean.. 09/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR COASTAL REGIONS OF NORTHEAST FL...GA...SC...AND SOUTHERN NC... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes remain possible through tonight across the coastal Southeast in association with Hurricane Helene. The greatest relative threat is expected across parts of Florida into southeast Georgia, the Midlands and Low Country of South Carolina, and southern North Carolina. ...FL/GA into the Carolinas... Hurricane Helene will be making landfall this evening near the Florida Big Bend region, and continue moving quickly northward across Georgia into the overnight hours, per NHC forecasts. Wind profiles are already favorable for tornadic supercells across a broad region to the east/northeast of Helene, across parts of FL/GA into the Carolinas. Low-level shear/SRH will become extreme later tonight from north FL into eastern GA and the Carolinas, as Helene's large and intense wind field spreads over the region. Low-topped supercells with at least transient rotation are ongoing across parts of FL/GA into the Carolinas, and will likely continue through the evening. CAM guidance generally suggests that one or more bands of supercells will develop and/or persist into the overnight hours across parts of GA/SC and eventually into NC before 12Z Friday morning, in advance of an increasingly prominent midlevel dry slot. Tropical moisture (with dewpoints into the upper 70s F) will also be drawn farther inland during this time period, with MLCAPE increasing to near or above 1000 J/kg across coastal areas, with greater than 500 J/kg farther inland. This environment will support the potential for several nocturnal tornadoes. ..Dean.. 09/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR COASTAL REGIONS OF NORTHEAST FL...GA...SC...AND SOUTHERN NC... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes remain possible through tonight across the coastal Southeast in association with Hurricane Helene. The greatest relative threat is expected across parts of Florida into southeast Georgia, the Midlands and Low Country of South Carolina, and southern North Carolina. ...FL/GA into the Carolinas... Hurricane Helene will be making landfall this evening near the Florida Big Bend region, and continue moving quickly northward across Georgia into the overnight hours, per NHC forecasts. Wind profiles are already favorable for tornadic supercells across a broad region to the east/northeast of Helene, across parts of FL/GA into the Carolinas. Low-level shear/SRH will become extreme later tonight from north FL into eastern GA and the Carolinas, as Helene's large and intense wind field spreads over the region. Low-topped supercells with at least transient rotation are ongoing across parts of FL/GA into the Carolinas, and will likely continue through the evening. CAM guidance generally suggests that one or more bands of supercells will develop and/or persist into the overnight hours across parts of GA/SC and eventually into NC before 12Z Friday morning, in advance of an increasingly prominent midlevel dry slot. Tropical moisture (with dewpoints into the upper 70s F) will also be drawn farther inland during this time period, with MLCAPE increasing to near or above 1000 J/kg across coastal areas, with greater than 500 J/kg farther inland. This environment will support the potential for several nocturnal tornadoes. ..Dean.. 09/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR COASTAL REGIONS OF NORTHEAST FL...GA...SC...AND SOUTHERN NC... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes remain possible through tonight across the coastal Southeast in association with Hurricane Helene. The greatest relative threat is expected across parts of Florida into southeast Georgia, the Midlands and Low Country of South Carolina, and southern North Carolina. ...FL/GA into the Carolinas... Hurricane Helene will be making landfall this evening near the Florida Big Bend region, and continue moving quickly northward across Georgia into the overnight hours, per NHC forecasts. Wind profiles are already favorable for tornadic supercells across a broad region to the east/northeast of Helene, across parts of FL/GA into the Carolinas. Low-level shear/SRH will become extreme later tonight from north FL into eastern GA and the Carolinas, as Helene's large and intense wind field spreads over the region. Low-topped supercells with at least transient rotation are ongoing across parts of FL/GA into the Carolinas, and will likely continue through the evening. CAM guidance generally suggests that one or more bands of supercells will develop and/or persist into the overnight hours across parts of GA/SC and eventually into NC before 12Z Friday morning, in advance of an increasingly prominent midlevel dry slot. Tropical moisture (with dewpoints into the upper 70s F) will also be drawn farther inland during this time period, with MLCAPE increasing to near or above 1000 J/kg across coastal areas, with greater than 500 J/kg farther inland. This environment will support the potential for several nocturnal tornadoes. ..Dean.. 09/27/2024 Read more