Aggregator

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0404 AM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Valid 291200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models appear to be in reasonable agreement through Day 6 (Monday March 31), with respect to synoptic-scale features. Divergence in solutions increases thereafter, particularly with the strength/progression of the next trough moving across the western CONUS and into the Plains. As such, no risk areas will be considered beyond Day 6/Monday. Day 4/Saturday, a couple of small-scale vorticity maxima/short-wave troughs are forecast to cross the central portion of the country, ahead of the stronger system advancing across the West. This feature is forecast to reach the High Plains overnight, as a surface low moves across the Kansas/Oklahoma vicinity. Models continue to indicate that capping will remain an issue, hindering convective development in the warm sector ahead of the low (across the Kansas/Oklahoma/western Missouri/western Arkansas area) at least until after dark/overnight. While some severe threat may evolve with storms which should be slightly elevated for the most part, risk does not appear sufficient to warrant inclusion of a 15% risk area. Day 5/Sunday, more substantial cyclogenesis is expected, though differences exist between the models in terms of timing/location of the developing low -- and associated cold front. Nonetheless, substantial warm-sector destabilization is forecast to occur from Missouri/Arkansas/eastern Texas eastward across the Mississippi Valley during the day, and extending eastward across the Midwest/Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. This will support scattered thunderstorm development, within an increasingly sheared environment. By early afternoon, severe/supercell storms are expected, accompanied by the risk for very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. Storms should spread southeast of the Ohio and Mississippi Valleys overnight, accompanied by ongoing severe risk. Day 6/Monday, risk will likely have shifted to near and east of the Appalachians, and southward to the Gulf Coast area, as the surface cold front advances. Destabilization ahead of the front will support continuation of severe risk given favorably strong flow aloft, with storms reaching/moving off the Gulf and Atlantic Coasts late in the period. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 AM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NEBRASK VICINITY...AND FROM EASTERN TEXAS TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A few strong/severe storms may occur from parts of East Texas to the Lower Mississippi Valley, and also across portions of the Nebraska vicinity overnight. ...Eastern Texas to the Lower Mississippi Valley... Thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing across eastern portions of the southern Plains, in conjunction with the slow-moving southern-stream trough crossing the area. As the trough continues moving slowly east-northeastward, daytime heating away from ongoing clouds/convection will allow the airmass to destabilize, supporting additional convective development. Mid-level flow will remain rather weak across the area. However, ahead of the low, moderate low-level southeasterlies veering to southwesterly through mid levels should result in shear sufficient for organized/weakly rotating storms. Convection will spread into Arkansas/Louisiana through the afternoon and evening, accompanied by the risk for locally gusty winds, and possibly a brief tornado or two, warrant inclusion of low (5%) severe-weather probability at this time. ...Nebraska vicinity... As a weak frontal low shifts eastward out of the central High Plains into western Kansas, in response to a short-wave trough crossing the Rockies, elevated storms seem fairly likely to develop in a zone of focused warm advection northeast of the low, across the Nebraska vicinity. Relatively steep lapse rates combined with moderate mid-level lapse rates/instability and moderate mid-level southwesterlies suggest potential for a few stronger storms to produce hail, during the overnight hours. ..Goss.. 03/26/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 AM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NEBRASK VICINITY...AND FROM EASTERN TEXAS TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A few strong/severe storms may occur from parts of East Texas to the Lower Mississippi Valley, and also across portions of the Nebraska vicinity overnight. ...Eastern Texas to the Lower Mississippi Valley... Thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing across eastern portions of the southern Plains, in conjunction with the slow-moving southern-stream trough crossing the area. As the trough continues moving slowly east-northeastward, daytime heating away from ongoing clouds/convection will allow the airmass to destabilize, supporting additional convective development. Mid-level flow will remain rather weak across the area. However, ahead of the low, moderate low-level southeasterlies veering to southwesterly through mid levels should result in shear sufficient for organized/weakly rotating storms. Convection will spread into Arkansas/Louisiana through the afternoon and evening, accompanied by the risk for locally gusty winds, and possibly a brief tornado or two, warrant inclusion of low (5%) severe-weather probability at this time. ...Nebraska vicinity... As a weak frontal low shifts eastward out of the central High Plains into western Kansas, in response to a short-wave trough crossing the Rockies, elevated storms seem fairly likely to develop in a zone of focused warm advection northeast of the low, across the Nebraska vicinity. Relatively steep lapse rates combined with moderate mid-level lapse rates/instability and moderate mid-level southwesterlies suggest potential for a few stronger storms to produce hail, during the overnight hours. ..Goss.. 03/26/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 AM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NEBRASK VICINITY...AND FROM EASTERN TEXAS TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A few strong/severe storms may occur from parts of East Texas to the Lower Mississippi Valley, and also across portions of the Nebraska vicinity overnight. ...Eastern Texas to the Lower Mississippi Valley... Thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing across eastern portions of the southern Plains, in conjunction with the slow-moving southern-stream trough crossing the area. As the trough continues moving slowly east-northeastward, daytime heating away from ongoing clouds/convection will allow the airmass to destabilize, supporting additional convective development. Mid-level flow will remain rather weak across the area. However, ahead of the low, moderate low-level southeasterlies veering to southwesterly through mid levels should result in shear sufficient for organized/weakly rotating storms. Convection will spread into Arkansas/Louisiana through the afternoon and evening, accompanied by the risk for locally gusty winds, and possibly a brief tornado or two, warrant inclusion of low (5%) severe-weather probability at this time. ...Nebraska vicinity... As a weak frontal low shifts eastward out of the central High Plains into western Kansas, in response to a short-wave trough crossing the Rockies, elevated storms seem fairly likely to develop in a zone of focused warm advection northeast of the low, across the Nebraska vicinity. Relatively steep lapse rates combined with moderate mid-level lapse rates/instability and moderate mid-level southwesterlies suggest potential for a few stronger storms to produce hail, during the overnight hours. ..Goss.. 03/26/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 AM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NEBRASK VICINITY...AND FROM EASTERN TEXAS TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A few strong/severe storms may occur from parts of East Texas to the Lower Mississippi Valley, and also across portions of the Nebraska vicinity overnight. ...Eastern Texas to the Lower Mississippi Valley... Thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing across eastern portions of the southern Plains, in conjunction with the slow-moving southern-stream trough crossing the area. As the trough continues moving slowly east-northeastward, daytime heating away from ongoing clouds/convection will allow the airmass to destabilize, supporting additional convective development. Mid-level flow will remain rather weak across the area. However, ahead of the low, moderate low-level southeasterlies veering to southwesterly through mid levels should result in shear sufficient for organized/weakly rotating storms. Convection will spread into Arkansas/Louisiana through the afternoon and evening, accompanied by the risk for locally gusty winds, and possibly a brief tornado or two, warrant inclusion of low (5%) severe-weather probability at this time. ...Nebraska vicinity... As a weak frontal low shifts eastward out of the central High Plains into western Kansas, in response to a short-wave trough crossing the Rockies, elevated storms seem fairly likely to develop in a zone of focused warm advection northeast of the low, across the Nebraska vicinity. Relatively steep lapse rates combined with moderate mid-level lapse rates/instability and moderate mid-level southwesterlies suggest potential for a few stronger storms to produce hail, during the overnight hours. ..Goss.. 03/26/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 AM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NEBRASK VICINITY...AND FROM EASTERN TEXAS TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A few strong/severe storms may occur from parts of East Texas to the Lower Mississippi Valley, and also across portions of the Nebraska vicinity overnight. ...Eastern Texas to the Lower Mississippi Valley... Thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing across eastern portions of the southern Plains, in conjunction with the slow-moving southern-stream trough crossing the area. As the trough continues moving slowly east-northeastward, daytime heating away from ongoing clouds/convection will allow the airmass to destabilize, supporting additional convective development. Mid-level flow will remain rather weak across the area. However, ahead of the low, moderate low-level southeasterlies veering to southwesterly through mid levels should result in shear sufficient for organized/weakly rotating storms. Convection will spread into Arkansas/Louisiana through the afternoon and evening, accompanied by the risk for locally gusty winds, and possibly a brief tornado or two, warrant inclusion of low (5%) severe-weather probability at this time. ...Nebraska vicinity... As a weak frontal low shifts eastward out of the central High Plains into western Kansas, in response to a short-wave trough crossing the Rockies, elevated storms seem fairly likely to develop in a zone of focused warm advection northeast of the low, across the Nebraska vicinity. Relatively steep lapse rates combined with moderate mid-level lapse rates/instability and moderate mid-level southwesterlies suggest potential for a few stronger storms to produce hail, during the overnight hours. ..Goss.. 03/26/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 AM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging over the western US will gradually move eastward as an upper trough and strong jet begin to move offshore. A cold front will move over much of the Southeast with a dry air mass and high pressure in its wake. Over the west, a weak upper trough and low-level moisture will move into parts of the southern Plains supporting thunderstorm chances. ...Southwest and southern Plains... With the weak upper trough remaining relatively stationary beneath the upper ridge, another round of isolated diurnal storms will be possible across much of NM into west TX. Likely high-based, storms along the western edge of the more robust moisture return are unlikely to produce significant wetting rainfall. However, steep lapse rates and sufficient PWAT values (0.5-0.8 in) for weak buoyancy may allow for isolated lightning strikes within a region of dry and receptive fuels. Dry thunderstorm probabilities have been maintained across parts of NM. Ahead of the deeper moisture across parts of OK and KS, a few hours of locally elevated conditions are possible with dry southerly winds. While RH appears unlikely to reach critical criteria, southerly gusts of 20-25 mph and afternoon minimums near 30% will overlap with areas of very dry fuels. This may support some localized fire-weather concerns. ...FL... Relatively dry conditions are likely in a post-frontal air mass across parts of the FL Peninsula Thursday afternoon and evening. With light northeasterly winds and warm temperatures, inland RH values below 35% appear likely across central and western parts of the Peninsula. While surface winds are not expected to be overly strong (generally less than 10 mph), occasional stronger gusts overlapping with the low RH and very dry fuels could support a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions. ..Lyons.. 03/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 AM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging over the western US will gradually move eastward as an upper trough and strong jet begin to move offshore. A cold front will move over much of the Southeast with a dry air mass and high pressure in its wake. Over the west, a weak upper trough and low-level moisture will move into parts of the southern Plains supporting thunderstorm chances. ...Southwest and southern Plains... With the weak upper trough remaining relatively stationary beneath the upper ridge, another round of isolated diurnal storms will be possible across much of NM into west TX. Likely high-based, storms along the western edge of the more robust moisture return are unlikely to produce significant wetting rainfall. However, steep lapse rates and sufficient PWAT values (0.5-0.8 in) for weak buoyancy may allow for isolated lightning strikes within a region of dry and receptive fuels. Dry thunderstorm probabilities have been maintained across parts of NM. Ahead of the deeper moisture across parts of OK and KS, a few hours of locally elevated conditions are possible with dry southerly winds. While RH appears unlikely to reach critical criteria, southerly gusts of 20-25 mph and afternoon minimums near 30% will overlap with areas of very dry fuels. This may support some localized fire-weather concerns. ...FL... Relatively dry conditions are likely in a post-frontal air mass across parts of the FL Peninsula Thursday afternoon and evening. With light northeasterly winds and warm temperatures, inland RH values below 35% appear likely across central and western parts of the Peninsula. While surface winds are not expected to be overly strong (generally less than 10 mph), occasional stronger gusts overlapping with the low RH and very dry fuels could support a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions. ..Lyons.. 03/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 AM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging over the western US will gradually move eastward as an upper trough and strong jet begin to move offshore. A cold front will move over much of the Southeast with a dry air mass and high pressure in its wake. Over the west, a weak upper trough and low-level moisture will move into parts of the southern Plains supporting thunderstorm chances. ...Southwest and southern Plains... With the weak upper trough remaining relatively stationary beneath the upper ridge, another round of isolated diurnal storms will be possible across much of NM into west TX. Likely high-based, storms along the western edge of the more robust moisture return are unlikely to produce significant wetting rainfall. However, steep lapse rates and sufficient PWAT values (0.5-0.8 in) for weak buoyancy may allow for isolated lightning strikes within a region of dry and receptive fuels. Dry thunderstorm probabilities have been maintained across parts of NM. Ahead of the deeper moisture across parts of OK and KS, a few hours of locally elevated conditions are possible with dry southerly winds. While RH appears unlikely to reach critical criteria, southerly gusts of 20-25 mph and afternoon minimums near 30% will overlap with areas of very dry fuels. This may support some localized fire-weather concerns. ...FL... Relatively dry conditions are likely in a post-frontal air mass across parts of the FL Peninsula Thursday afternoon and evening. With light northeasterly winds and warm temperatures, inland RH values below 35% appear likely across central and western parts of the Peninsula. While surface winds are not expected to be overly strong (generally less than 10 mph), occasional stronger gusts overlapping with the low RH and very dry fuels could support a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions. ..Lyons.. 03/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 AM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging over the western US will gradually move eastward as an upper trough and strong jet begin to move offshore. A cold front will move over much of the Southeast with a dry air mass and high pressure in its wake. Over the west, a weak upper trough and low-level moisture will move into parts of the southern Plains supporting thunderstorm chances. ...Southwest and southern Plains... With the weak upper trough remaining relatively stationary beneath the upper ridge, another round of isolated diurnal storms will be possible across much of NM into west TX. Likely high-based, storms along the western edge of the more robust moisture return are unlikely to produce significant wetting rainfall. However, steep lapse rates and sufficient PWAT values (0.5-0.8 in) for weak buoyancy may allow for isolated lightning strikes within a region of dry and receptive fuels. Dry thunderstorm probabilities have been maintained across parts of NM. Ahead of the deeper moisture across parts of OK and KS, a few hours of locally elevated conditions are possible with dry southerly winds. While RH appears unlikely to reach critical criteria, southerly gusts of 20-25 mph and afternoon minimums near 30% will overlap with areas of very dry fuels. This may support some localized fire-weather concerns. ...FL... Relatively dry conditions are likely in a post-frontal air mass across parts of the FL Peninsula Thursday afternoon and evening. With light northeasterly winds and warm temperatures, inland RH values below 35% appear likely across central and western parts of the Peninsula. While surface winds are not expected to be overly strong (generally less than 10 mph), occasional stronger gusts overlapping with the low RH and very dry fuels could support a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions. ..Lyons.. 03/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 AM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging will continue to intensify as it shifts eastward into the central US today and tonight. A weak southern-stream trough will slide under the ridge over parts of the Southwest and southern Plains. A dry cold front will move eastward over the Appalachians beneath a broad upper trough favoring gusty winds and dry conditions over the east. Some fire-weather concerns are likely as isolated dry thunderstorms and dry/breezy conditions overlap with areas of dry fuels. ...Appalachians... Westerly downslope winds are likely across portions of the southern and central Appalachians this afternoon. Warm temperatures and downslope drying will also contribute to low afternoon RH below 25-30% for much of the western Carolinas, northeast GA and western VA. RH dropping to near critical thresholds, with wind speeds approaching 15 mph (with stronger gusts) will favor several hours of elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions given very dry fuels and recent fire activity. ...Southwest... A subtle southern-stream shortwave trough will move underneath the upper ridge into parts of the Southwest. Mid and low-level moisture will gradually move west, reaching parts of NM and west TX. Weak upslope flow and ascent from the trough will support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Dry sub-cloud layers will favor poor precipitation efficiency with weak buoyancy aloft. This could support a few dry thunderstorms with gusty winds. Fuels are highly receptive to fire starts with ERCs well above the 80th percentile over a large area. With little wetting rainfall and the potential for lightning ignitions, an Isolated dry thunder area will be maintained. ..Lyons.. 03/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 AM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging will continue to intensify as it shifts eastward into the central US today and tonight. A weak southern-stream trough will slide under the ridge over parts of the Southwest and southern Plains. A dry cold front will move eastward over the Appalachians beneath a broad upper trough favoring gusty winds and dry conditions over the east. Some fire-weather concerns are likely as isolated dry thunderstorms and dry/breezy conditions overlap with areas of dry fuels. ...Appalachians... Westerly downslope winds are likely across portions of the southern and central Appalachians this afternoon. Warm temperatures and downslope drying will also contribute to low afternoon RH below 25-30% for much of the western Carolinas, northeast GA and western VA. RH dropping to near critical thresholds, with wind speeds approaching 15 mph (with stronger gusts) will favor several hours of elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions given very dry fuels and recent fire activity. ...Southwest... A subtle southern-stream shortwave trough will move underneath the upper ridge into parts of the Southwest. Mid and low-level moisture will gradually move west, reaching parts of NM and west TX. Weak upslope flow and ascent from the trough will support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Dry sub-cloud layers will favor poor precipitation efficiency with weak buoyancy aloft. This could support a few dry thunderstorms with gusty winds. Fuels are highly receptive to fire starts with ERCs well above the 80th percentile over a large area. With little wetting rainfall and the potential for lightning ignitions, an Isolated dry thunder area will be maintained. ..Lyons.. 03/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 AM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging will continue to intensify as it shifts eastward into the central US today and tonight. A weak southern-stream trough will slide under the ridge over parts of the Southwest and southern Plains. A dry cold front will move eastward over the Appalachians beneath a broad upper trough favoring gusty winds and dry conditions over the east. Some fire-weather concerns are likely as isolated dry thunderstorms and dry/breezy conditions overlap with areas of dry fuels. ...Appalachians... Westerly downslope winds are likely across portions of the southern and central Appalachians this afternoon. Warm temperatures and downslope drying will also contribute to low afternoon RH below 25-30% for much of the western Carolinas, northeast GA and western VA. RH dropping to near critical thresholds, with wind speeds approaching 15 mph (with stronger gusts) will favor several hours of elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions given very dry fuels and recent fire activity. ...Southwest... A subtle southern-stream shortwave trough will move underneath the upper ridge into parts of the Southwest. Mid and low-level moisture will gradually move west, reaching parts of NM and west TX. Weak upslope flow and ascent from the trough will support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Dry sub-cloud layers will favor poor precipitation efficiency with weak buoyancy aloft. This could support a few dry thunderstorms with gusty winds. Fuels are highly receptive to fire starts with ERCs well above the 80th percentile over a large area. With little wetting rainfall and the potential for lightning ignitions, an Isolated dry thunder area will be maintained. ..Lyons.. 03/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 AM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging will continue to intensify as it shifts eastward into the central US today and tonight. A weak southern-stream trough will slide under the ridge over parts of the Southwest and southern Plains. A dry cold front will move eastward over the Appalachians beneath a broad upper trough favoring gusty winds and dry conditions over the east. Some fire-weather concerns are likely as isolated dry thunderstorms and dry/breezy conditions overlap with areas of dry fuels. ...Appalachians... Westerly downslope winds are likely across portions of the southern and central Appalachians this afternoon. Warm temperatures and downslope drying will also contribute to low afternoon RH below 25-30% for much of the western Carolinas, northeast GA and western VA. RH dropping to near critical thresholds, with wind speeds approaching 15 mph (with stronger gusts) will favor several hours of elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions given very dry fuels and recent fire activity. ...Southwest... A subtle southern-stream shortwave trough will move underneath the upper ridge into parts of the Southwest. Mid and low-level moisture will gradually move west, reaching parts of NM and west TX. Weak upslope flow and ascent from the trough will support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Dry sub-cloud layers will favor poor precipitation efficiency with weak buoyancy aloft. This could support a few dry thunderstorms with gusty winds. Fuels are highly receptive to fire starts with ERCs well above the 80th percentile over a large area. With little wetting rainfall and the potential for lightning ignitions, an Isolated dry thunder area will be maintained. ..Lyons.. 03/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 AM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging will continue to intensify as it shifts eastward into the central US today and tonight. A weak southern-stream trough will slide under the ridge over parts of the Southwest and southern Plains. A dry cold front will move eastward over the Appalachians beneath a broad upper trough favoring gusty winds and dry conditions over the east. Some fire-weather concerns are likely as isolated dry thunderstorms and dry/breezy conditions overlap with areas of dry fuels. ...Appalachians... Westerly downslope winds are likely across portions of the southern and central Appalachians this afternoon. Warm temperatures and downslope drying will also contribute to low afternoon RH below 25-30% for much of the western Carolinas, northeast GA and western VA. RH dropping to near critical thresholds, with wind speeds approaching 15 mph (with stronger gusts) will favor several hours of elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions given very dry fuels and recent fire activity. ...Southwest... A subtle southern-stream shortwave trough will move underneath the upper ridge into parts of the Southwest. Mid and low-level moisture will gradually move west, reaching parts of NM and west TX. Weak upslope flow and ascent from the trough will support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Dry sub-cloud layers will favor poor precipitation efficiency with weak buoyancy aloft. This could support a few dry thunderstorms with gusty winds. Fuels are highly receptive to fire starts with ERCs well above the 80th percentile over a large area. With little wetting rainfall and the potential for lightning ignitions, an Isolated dry thunder area will be maintained. ..Lyons.. 03/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0113 AM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible Thursday across parts of the southern High Plains, and into southern Texas, as well as over the Lower Missouri/Mid-Mississippi Valleys. ...Southern High Plains across southern Texas... Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing early in the period, as a slow-moving southern-stream trough moves eastward across northern Mexico and Texas through the period. Local risk for hail/wind may be ongoing with these storms. During the afternoon, isolated high-based convection may develop across parts of southeastern New Mexico and Far West Texas. Despite modest CAPE/shear, the deep/dry boundary layer may support gusty/damaging winds with any stronger storm. Farther east, along the Rio Grande, storms will likely develop over higher terrain on the Mexican side of the river, and may shift into adjacent portions of Texas with time. Meanwhile, remnant outflow from earlier convection may focus new storm development, as moderate instability develops due to the moist boundary layer residing beneath steep mid-level lapse rates associated with the upper system. Low-level southeasterlies veering with height, and increasing to 30-plus kt at mid levels, will support organized/rotating storms, the strongest of which will be capable of all-hazards severe potential. Risk will likely continue through the evening, spreading eastward into southeastern Texas with time. ...Middle Missouri Valley area eastward to the Lower Ohio Valley... As a warm front advances slowly northward across the central Plains and Midwest, several clusters of showers and scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop, and shift east-southeastward within the prevailing west-northwesterlies aloft. Isolated afternoon surface-based storms may develop over the north-central Kansas vicinity, where risk for a few strong wind gusts may occur, along with potential for hail. However, more widespread convection during the period is forecast north of the warm front. Steep lapse rates above the low-level stable air, and amply strong mid-level flow, suggests potential for severe-caliber hail. ..Goss.. 03/26/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0113 AM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible Thursday across parts of the southern High Plains, and into southern Texas, as well as over the Lower Missouri/Mid-Mississippi Valleys. ...Southern High Plains across southern Texas... Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing early in the period, as a slow-moving southern-stream trough moves eastward across northern Mexico and Texas through the period. Local risk for hail/wind may be ongoing with these storms. During the afternoon, isolated high-based convection may develop across parts of southeastern New Mexico and Far West Texas. Despite modest CAPE/shear, the deep/dry boundary layer may support gusty/damaging winds with any stronger storm. Farther east, along the Rio Grande, storms will likely develop over higher terrain on the Mexican side of the river, and may shift into adjacent portions of Texas with time. Meanwhile, remnant outflow from earlier convection may focus new storm development, as moderate instability develops due to the moist boundary layer residing beneath steep mid-level lapse rates associated with the upper system. Low-level southeasterlies veering with height, and increasing to 30-plus kt at mid levels, will support organized/rotating storms, the strongest of which will be capable of all-hazards severe potential. Risk will likely continue through the evening, spreading eastward into southeastern Texas with time. ...Middle Missouri Valley area eastward to the Lower Ohio Valley... As a warm front advances slowly northward across the central Plains and Midwest, several clusters of showers and scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop, and shift east-southeastward within the prevailing west-northwesterlies aloft. Isolated afternoon surface-based storms may develop over the north-central Kansas vicinity, where risk for a few strong wind gusts may occur, along with potential for hail. However, more widespread convection during the period is forecast north of the warm front. Steep lapse rates above the low-level stable air, and amply strong mid-level flow, suggests potential for severe-caliber hail. ..Goss.. 03/26/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0113 AM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible Thursday across parts of the southern High Plains, and into southern Texas, as well as over the Lower Missouri/Mid-Mississippi Valleys. ...Southern High Plains across southern Texas... Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing early in the period, as a slow-moving southern-stream trough moves eastward across northern Mexico and Texas through the period. Local risk for hail/wind may be ongoing with these storms. During the afternoon, isolated high-based convection may develop across parts of southeastern New Mexico and Far West Texas. Despite modest CAPE/shear, the deep/dry boundary layer may support gusty/damaging winds with any stronger storm. Farther east, along the Rio Grande, storms will likely develop over higher terrain on the Mexican side of the river, and may shift into adjacent portions of Texas with time. Meanwhile, remnant outflow from earlier convection may focus new storm development, as moderate instability develops due to the moist boundary layer residing beneath steep mid-level lapse rates associated with the upper system. Low-level southeasterlies veering with height, and increasing to 30-plus kt at mid levels, will support organized/rotating storms, the strongest of which will be capable of all-hazards severe potential. Risk will likely continue through the evening, spreading eastward into southeastern Texas with time. ...Middle Missouri Valley area eastward to the Lower Ohio Valley... As a warm front advances slowly northward across the central Plains and Midwest, several clusters of showers and scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop, and shift east-southeastward within the prevailing west-northwesterlies aloft. Isolated afternoon surface-based storms may develop over the north-central Kansas vicinity, where risk for a few strong wind gusts may occur, along with potential for hail. However, more widespread convection during the period is forecast north of the warm front. Steep lapse rates above the low-level stable air, and amply strong mid-level flow, suggests potential for severe-caliber hail. ..Goss.. 03/26/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0113 AM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible Thursday across parts of the southern High Plains, and into southern Texas, as well as over the Lower Missouri/Mid-Mississippi Valleys. ...Southern High Plains across southern Texas... Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing early in the period, as a slow-moving southern-stream trough moves eastward across northern Mexico and Texas through the period. Local risk for hail/wind may be ongoing with these storms. During the afternoon, isolated high-based convection may develop across parts of southeastern New Mexico and Far West Texas. Despite modest CAPE/shear, the deep/dry boundary layer may support gusty/damaging winds with any stronger storm. Farther east, along the Rio Grande, storms will likely develop over higher terrain on the Mexican side of the river, and may shift into adjacent portions of Texas with time. Meanwhile, remnant outflow from earlier convection may focus new storm development, as moderate instability develops due to the moist boundary layer residing beneath steep mid-level lapse rates associated with the upper system. Low-level southeasterlies veering with height, and increasing to 30-plus kt at mid levels, will support organized/rotating storms, the strongest of which will be capable of all-hazards severe potential. Risk will likely continue through the evening, spreading eastward into southeastern Texas with time. ...Middle Missouri Valley area eastward to the Lower Ohio Valley... As a warm front advances slowly northward across the central Plains and Midwest, several clusters of showers and scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop, and shift east-southeastward within the prevailing west-northwesterlies aloft. Isolated afternoon surface-based storms may develop over the north-central Kansas vicinity, where risk for a few strong wind gusts may occur, along with potential for hail. However, more widespread convection during the period is forecast north of the warm front. Steep lapse rates above the low-level stable air, and amply strong mid-level flow, suggests potential for severe-caliber hail. ..Goss.. 03/26/2025 Read more

MD 0265 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA TO THE RED RIVER
Mesoscale Discussion 0265 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1109 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Areas affected...south-central into southeast Oklahoma to the Red River Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 260409Z - 260615Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Elevated thunderstorms will increase in coverage, and sporadic marginally severe hail may occur. DISCUSSION...In the wake of the diurnally driven cluster hail event over North Texas, the air mass remains unstable with MUCAPE over 1000 J/kg extending into south-central OK this evening. Showers and thunderstorms are already developing well north of the warm front into OK, and this trend should persist given modest southwest flow around 850 mb aiding theta-e advection. This zone of weak lift is not expected to move much over the next several hours. However, this is also near the midlevel temperature gradient, and as such, it should be relatively easy to get further storm development. While not as favorable an environment as farther south, at least isolated marginally severe hail is forecast. ..Jewell/Gleason.. 03/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 35319798 34579571 34339511 34039472 33709484 33669644 33829711 34079745 34619785 34879810 35139816 35319798 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more