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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF WASHINGTON AND OREGON... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the Pacific Northwest this afternoon and evening, with supercells possible west of the Cascades across Oregon into Washington. These storms may produce large hail, perhaps a tornado or two, and severe wind gusts. ...20z Update... Only minor adjustments were needed to removed thunder across southern OK/northern TX with this update. The Slight risk across the Northwest and Marginal Risk in south Texas were unchanged. Temperatures across the Portland Metro into the Columbia Gorge have warmed into the mid 60s to 70s under mostly sunny skies. Surface objective analysis and observed 18z soundings from MFR and OTX continue to indicate MLCIN in place across much of the region from the Cascades/Colombia Gorge westward. The surface front and main upper-level forcing remain offshore and are expected to move eastward across the region by the late afternoon/early evening. Forecast soundings continue to indicate weakening of MLCIN along with steepening low to mid-level lapse rates as cooling aloft with the trough modifies profiles. This should allow for thunderstorm development through the afternoon/evening, with potential for supercells capable of large hail, damaging wind, and possibly a tornado or two. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Smith.. 03/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025/ ...Pacific Northwest... Satellite imagery this morning shows an upper low approaching the coast with mostly sunny skies over much of the region. A 100 kt 500-mb speed max will rotate through the base of the trough and overspread coastal OR/WA by mid evening as the upper low shifts east. An associated cold front should arc from off the Washington Coast to southward along the Oregon Coast by evening. Cold-air advection in the mid levels and diurnal heating will contribute to steepening lapse rates, and the development of weak to locally moderate buoyancy (250-1500 J/kg SBCAPE) by mid-late afternoon. Strengthening large-scale forcing for ascent and negligible CINH will favor isolated thunderstorms developing by mid-late afternoon and increasing in coverage through the early evening. Forecast hodographs indicate supercells are likely with the stronger, more persistent updrafts. Large hail (1-2 inches in diameter) will be possible. The elongated and perhaps locally augmented hodograph in the vicinity of terrain favored areas (i.e., near the Columbia River with a modest easterly component) may enable a short-duration tornado risk. Severe gusts are also possible with the stronger cores and outflow surges as convection matures during the evening and gradually diminishing late. ...Texas Lower Rio Grande River Valley... A weak disturbance will approach the Rio Grande through mid afternoon with a cirrus shield expected to persist through peak heating. A moist boundary layer sampled by morning area raobs and some filtered heating will promote widely scattered to scattered storms developing this afternoon. Relatively weaker flow in the low to mid levels will limit overall storm organization, but transient supercell/multicells are possible. The stronger storms may be capable of a localized hail/wind threat. ...Southwest IA... A strengthening warm-air advection regime overnight from KS into MO/IA will likely lead to the development of widely scattered showers/thunderstorms in the vicinity of a warm front. Forecast soundings show elevated instability (1000 J/kg MUCAPE) developing as the profile moistens near 850 mb. A stronger storm capable of small to marginally severe hail cannot be ruled out, but the threat appears too limited to introduce low-severe probabilities. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF WASHINGTON AND OREGON... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the Pacific Northwest this afternoon and evening, with supercells possible west of the Cascades across Oregon into Washington. These storms may produce large hail, perhaps a tornado or two, and severe wind gusts. ...20z Update... Only minor adjustments were needed to removed thunder across southern OK/northern TX with this update. The Slight risk across the Northwest and Marginal Risk in south Texas were unchanged. Temperatures across the Portland Metro into the Columbia Gorge have warmed into the mid 60s to 70s under mostly sunny skies. Surface objective analysis and observed 18z soundings from MFR and OTX continue to indicate MLCIN in place across much of the region from the Cascades/Colombia Gorge westward. The surface front and main upper-level forcing remain offshore and are expected to move eastward across the region by the late afternoon/early evening. Forecast soundings continue to indicate weakening of MLCIN along with steepening low to mid-level lapse rates as cooling aloft with the trough modifies profiles. This should allow for thunderstorm development through the afternoon/evening, with potential for supercells capable of large hail, damaging wind, and possibly a tornado or two. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Smith.. 03/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025/ ...Pacific Northwest... Satellite imagery this morning shows an upper low approaching the coast with mostly sunny skies over much of the region. A 100 kt 500-mb speed max will rotate through the base of the trough and overspread coastal OR/WA by mid evening as the upper low shifts east. An associated cold front should arc from off the Washington Coast to southward along the Oregon Coast by evening. Cold-air advection in the mid levels and diurnal heating will contribute to steepening lapse rates, and the development of weak to locally moderate buoyancy (250-1500 J/kg SBCAPE) by mid-late afternoon. Strengthening large-scale forcing for ascent and negligible CINH will favor isolated thunderstorms developing by mid-late afternoon and increasing in coverage through the early evening. Forecast hodographs indicate supercells are likely with the stronger, more persistent updrafts. Large hail (1-2 inches in diameter) will be possible. The elongated and perhaps locally augmented hodograph in the vicinity of terrain favored areas (i.e., near the Columbia River with a modest easterly component) may enable a short-duration tornado risk. Severe gusts are also possible with the stronger cores and outflow surges as convection matures during the evening and gradually diminishing late. ...Texas Lower Rio Grande River Valley... A weak disturbance will approach the Rio Grande through mid afternoon with a cirrus shield expected to persist through peak heating. A moist boundary layer sampled by morning area raobs and some filtered heating will promote widely scattered to scattered storms developing this afternoon. Relatively weaker flow in the low to mid levels will limit overall storm organization, but transient supercell/multicells are possible. The stronger storms may be capable of a localized hail/wind threat. ...Southwest IA... A strengthening warm-air advection regime overnight from KS into MO/IA will likely lead to the development of widely scattered showers/thunderstorms in the vicinity of a warm front. Forecast soundings show elevated instability (1000 J/kg MUCAPE) developing as the profile moistens near 850 mb. A stronger storm capable of small to marginally severe hail cannot be ruled out, but the threat appears too limited to introduce low-severe probabilities. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF WASHINGTON AND OREGON... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the Pacific Northwest this afternoon and evening, with supercells possible west of the Cascades across Oregon into Washington. These storms may produce large hail, perhaps a tornado or two, and severe wind gusts. ...20z Update... Only minor adjustments were needed to removed thunder across southern OK/northern TX with this update. The Slight risk across the Northwest and Marginal Risk in south Texas were unchanged. Temperatures across the Portland Metro into the Columbia Gorge have warmed into the mid 60s to 70s under mostly sunny skies. Surface objective analysis and observed 18z soundings from MFR and OTX continue to indicate MLCIN in place across much of the region from the Cascades/Colombia Gorge westward. The surface front and main upper-level forcing remain offshore and are expected to move eastward across the region by the late afternoon/early evening. Forecast soundings continue to indicate weakening of MLCIN along with steepening low to mid-level lapse rates as cooling aloft with the trough modifies profiles. This should allow for thunderstorm development through the afternoon/evening, with potential for supercells capable of large hail, damaging wind, and possibly a tornado or two. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Smith.. 03/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025/ ...Pacific Northwest... Satellite imagery this morning shows an upper low approaching the coast with mostly sunny skies over much of the region. A 100 kt 500-mb speed max will rotate through the base of the trough and overspread coastal OR/WA by mid evening as the upper low shifts east. An associated cold front should arc from off the Washington Coast to southward along the Oregon Coast by evening. Cold-air advection in the mid levels and diurnal heating will contribute to steepening lapse rates, and the development of weak to locally moderate buoyancy (250-1500 J/kg SBCAPE) by mid-late afternoon. Strengthening large-scale forcing for ascent and negligible CINH will favor isolated thunderstorms developing by mid-late afternoon and increasing in coverage through the early evening. Forecast hodographs indicate supercells are likely with the stronger, more persistent updrafts. Large hail (1-2 inches in diameter) will be possible. The elongated and perhaps locally augmented hodograph in the vicinity of terrain favored areas (i.e., near the Columbia River with a modest easterly component) may enable a short-duration tornado risk. Severe gusts are also possible with the stronger cores and outflow surges as convection matures during the evening and gradually diminishing late. ...Texas Lower Rio Grande River Valley... A weak disturbance will approach the Rio Grande through mid afternoon with a cirrus shield expected to persist through peak heating. A moist boundary layer sampled by morning area raobs and some filtered heating will promote widely scattered to scattered storms developing this afternoon. Relatively weaker flow in the low to mid levels will limit overall storm organization, but transient supercell/multicells are possible. The stronger storms may be capable of a localized hail/wind threat. ...Southwest IA... A strengthening warm-air advection regime overnight from KS into MO/IA will likely lead to the development of widely scattered showers/thunderstorms in the vicinity of a warm front. Forecast soundings show elevated instability (1000 J/kg MUCAPE) developing as the profile moistens near 850 mb. A stronger storm capable of small to marginally severe hail cannot be ruled out, but the threat appears too limited to introduce low-severe probabilities. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF WASHINGTON AND OREGON... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the Pacific Northwest this afternoon and evening, with supercells possible west of the Cascades across Oregon into Washington. These storms may produce large hail, perhaps a tornado or two, and severe wind gusts. ...20z Update... Only minor adjustments were needed to removed thunder across southern OK/northern TX with this update. The Slight risk across the Northwest and Marginal Risk in south Texas were unchanged. Temperatures across the Portland Metro into the Columbia Gorge have warmed into the mid 60s to 70s under mostly sunny skies. Surface objective analysis and observed 18z soundings from MFR and OTX continue to indicate MLCIN in place across much of the region from the Cascades/Colombia Gorge westward. The surface front and main upper-level forcing remain offshore and are expected to move eastward across the region by the late afternoon/early evening. Forecast soundings continue to indicate weakening of MLCIN along with steepening low to mid-level lapse rates as cooling aloft with the trough modifies profiles. This should allow for thunderstorm development through the afternoon/evening, with potential for supercells capable of large hail, damaging wind, and possibly a tornado or two. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Smith.. 03/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025/ ...Pacific Northwest... Satellite imagery this morning shows an upper low approaching the coast with mostly sunny skies over much of the region. A 100 kt 500-mb speed max will rotate through the base of the trough and overspread coastal OR/WA by mid evening as the upper low shifts east. An associated cold front should arc from off the Washington Coast to southward along the Oregon Coast by evening. Cold-air advection in the mid levels and diurnal heating will contribute to steepening lapse rates, and the development of weak to locally moderate buoyancy (250-1500 J/kg SBCAPE) by mid-late afternoon. Strengthening large-scale forcing for ascent and negligible CINH will favor isolated thunderstorms developing by mid-late afternoon and increasing in coverage through the early evening. Forecast hodographs indicate supercells are likely with the stronger, more persistent updrafts. Large hail (1-2 inches in diameter) will be possible. The elongated and perhaps locally augmented hodograph in the vicinity of terrain favored areas (i.e., near the Columbia River with a modest easterly component) may enable a short-duration tornado risk. Severe gusts are also possible with the stronger cores and outflow surges as convection matures during the evening and gradually diminishing late. ...Texas Lower Rio Grande River Valley... A weak disturbance will approach the Rio Grande through mid afternoon with a cirrus shield expected to persist through peak heating. A moist boundary layer sampled by morning area raobs and some filtered heating will promote widely scattered to scattered storms developing this afternoon. Relatively weaker flow in the low to mid levels will limit overall storm organization, but transient supercell/multicells are possible. The stronger storms may be capable of a localized hail/wind threat. ...Southwest IA... A strengthening warm-air advection regime overnight from KS into MO/IA will likely lead to the development of widely scattered showers/thunderstorms in the vicinity of a warm front. Forecast soundings show elevated instability (1000 J/kg MUCAPE) developing as the profile moistens near 850 mb. A stronger storm capable of small to marginally severe hail cannot be ruled out, but the threat appears too limited to introduce low-severe probabilities. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF WASHINGTON AND OREGON... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the Pacific Northwest this afternoon and evening, with supercells possible west of the Cascades across Oregon into Washington. These storms may produce large hail, perhaps a tornado or two, and severe wind gusts. ...20z Update... Only minor adjustments were needed to removed thunder across southern OK/northern TX with this update. The Slight risk across the Northwest and Marginal Risk in south Texas were unchanged. Temperatures across the Portland Metro into the Columbia Gorge have warmed into the mid 60s to 70s under mostly sunny skies. Surface objective analysis and observed 18z soundings from MFR and OTX continue to indicate MLCIN in place across much of the region from the Cascades/Colombia Gorge westward. The surface front and main upper-level forcing remain offshore and are expected to move eastward across the region by the late afternoon/early evening. Forecast soundings continue to indicate weakening of MLCIN along with steepening low to mid-level lapse rates as cooling aloft with the trough modifies profiles. This should allow for thunderstorm development through the afternoon/evening, with potential for supercells capable of large hail, damaging wind, and possibly a tornado or two. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Smith.. 03/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025/ ...Pacific Northwest... Satellite imagery this morning shows an upper low approaching the coast with mostly sunny skies over much of the region. A 100 kt 500-mb speed max will rotate through the base of the trough and overspread coastal OR/WA by mid evening as the upper low shifts east. An associated cold front should arc from off the Washington Coast to southward along the Oregon Coast by evening. Cold-air advection in the mid levels and diurnal heating will contribute to steepening lapse rates, and the development of weak to locally moderate buoyancy (250-1500 J/kg SBCAPE) by mid-late afternoon. Strengthening large-scale forcing for ascent and negligible CINH will favor isolated thunderstorms developing by mid-late afternoon and increasing in coverage through the early evening. Forecast hodographs indicate supercells are likely with the stronger, more persistent updrafts. Large hail (1-2 inches in diameter) will be possible. The elongated and perhaps locally augmented hodograph in the vicinity of terrain favored areas (i.e., near the Columbia River with a modest easterly component) may enable a short-duration tornado risk. Severe gusts are also possible with the stronger cores and outflow surges as convection matures during the evening and gradually diminishing late. ...Texas Lower Rio Grande River Valley... A weak disturbance will approach the Rio Grande through mid afternoon with a cirrus shield expected to persist through peak heating. A moist boundary layer sampled by morning area raobs and some filtered heating will promote widely scattered to scattered storms developing this afternoon. Relatively weaker flow in the low to mid levels will limit overall storm organization, but transient supercell/multicells are possible. The stronger storms may be capable of a localized hail/wind threat. ...Southwest IA... A strengthening warm-air advection regime overnight from KS into MO/IA will likely lead to the development of widely scattered showers/thunderstorms in the vicinity of a warm front. Forecast soundings show elevated instability (1000 J/kg MUCAPE) developing as the profile moistens near 850 mb. A stronger storm capable of small to marginally severe hail cannot be ruled out, but the threat appears too limited to introduce low-severe probabilities. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF WASHINGTON AND OREGON... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the Pacific Northwest this afternoon and evening, with supercells possible west of the Cascades across Oregon into Washington. These storms may produce large hail, perhaps a tornado or two, and severe wind gusts. ...20z Update... Only minor adjustments were needed to removed thunder across southern OK/northern TX with this update. The Slight risk across the Northwest and Marginal Risk in south Texas were unchanged. Temperatures across the Portland Metro into the Columbia Gorge have warmed into the mid 60s to 70s under mostly sunny skies. Surface objective analysis and observed 18z soundings from MFR and OTX continue to indicate MLCIN in place across much of the region from the Cascades/Colombia Gorge westward. The surface front and main upper-level forcing remain offshore and are expected to move eastward across the region by the late afternoon/early evening. Forecast soundings continue to indicate weakening of MLCIN along with steepening low to mid-level lapse rates as cooling aloft with the trough modifies profiles. This should allow for thunderstorm development through the afternoon/evening, with potential for supercells capable of large hail, damaging wind, and possibly a tornado or two. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Smith.. 03/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025/ ...Pacific Northwest... Satellite imagery this morning shows an upper low approaching the coast with mostly sunny skies over much of the region. A 100 kt 500-mb speed max will rotate through the base of the trough and overspread coastal OR/WA by mid evening as the upper low shifts east. An associated cold front should arc from off the Washington Coast to southward along the Oregon Coast by evening. Cold-air advection in the mid levels and diurnal heating will contribute to steepening lapse rates, and the development of weak to locally moderate buoyancy (250-1500 J/kg SBCAPE) by mid-late afternoon. Strengthening large-scale forcing for ascent and negligible CINH will favor isolated thunderstorms developing by mid-late afternoon and increasing in coverage through the early evening. Forecast hodographs indicate supercells are likely with the stronger, more persistent updrafts. Large hail (1-2 inches in diameter) will be possible. The elongated and perhaps locally augmented hodograph in the vicinity of terrain favored areas (i.e., near the Columbia River with a modest easterly component) may enable a short-duration tornado risk. Severe gusts are also possible with the stronger cores and outflow surges as convection matures during the evening and gradually diminishing late. ...Texas Lower Rio Grande River Valley... A weak disturbance will approach the Rio Grande through mid afternoon with a cirrus shield expected to persist through peak heating. A moist boundary layer sampled by morning area raobs and some filtered heating will promote widely scattered to scattered storms developing this afternoon. Relatively weaker flow in the low to mid levels will limit overall storm organization, but transient supercell/multicells are possible. The stronger storms may be capable of a localized hail/wind threat. ...Southwest IA... A strengthening warm-air advection regime overnight from KS into MO/IA will likely lead to the development of widely scattered showers/thunderstorms in the vicinity of a warm front. Forecast soundings show elevated instability (1000 J/kg MUCAPE) developing as the profile moistens near 850 mb. A stronger storm capable of small to marginally severe hail cannot be ruled out, but the threat appears too limited to introduce low-severe probabilities. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF WASHINGTON AND OREGON... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the Pacific Northwest this afternoon and evening, with supercells possible west of the Cascades across Oregon into Washington. These storms may produce large hail, perhaps a tornado or two, and severe wind gusts. ...20z Update... Only minor adjustments were needed to removed thunder across southern OK/northern TX with this update. The Slight risk across the Northwest and Marginal Risk in south Texas were unchanged. Temperatures across the Portland Metro into the Columbia Gorge have warmed into the mid 60s to 70s under mostly sunny skies. Surface objective analysis and observed 18z soundings from MFR and OTX continue to indicate MLCIN in place across much of the region from the Cascades/Colombia Gorge westward. The surface front and main upper-level forcing remain offshore and are expected to move eastward across the region by the late afternoon/early evening. Forecast soundings continue to indicate weakening of MLCIN along with steepening low to mid-level lapse rates as cooling aloft with the trough modifies profiles. This should allow for thunderstorm development through the afternoon/evening, with potential for supercells capable of large hail, damaging wind, and possibly a tornado or two. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Smith.. 03/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025/ ...Pacific Northwest... Satellite imagery this morning shows an upper low approaching the coast with mostly sunny skies over much of the region. A 100 kt 500-mb speed max will rotate through the base of the trough and overspread coastal OR/WA by mid evening as the upper low shifts east. An associated cold front should arc from off the Washington Coast to southward along the Oregon Coast by evening. Cold-air advection in the mid levels and diurnal heating will contribute to steepening lapse rates, and the development of weak to locally moderate buoyancy (250-1500 J/kg SBCAPE) by mid-late afternoon. Strengthening large-scale forcing for ascent and negligible CINH will favor isolated thunderstorms developing by mid-late afternoon and increasing in coverage through the early evening. Forecast hodographs indicate supercells are likely with the stronger, more persistent updrafts. Large hail (1-2 inches in diameter) will be possible. The elongated and perhaps locally augmented hodograph in the vicinity of terrain favored areas (i.e., near the Columbia River with a modest easterly component) may enable a short-duration tornado risk. Severe gusts are also possible with the stronger cores and outflow surges as convection matures during the evening and gradually diminishing late. ...Texas Lower Rio Grande River Valley... A weak disturbance will approach the Rio Grande through mid afternoon with a cirrus shield expected to persist through peak heating. A moist boundary layer sampled by morning area raobs and some filtered heating will promote widely scattered to scattered storms developing this afternoon. Relatively weaker flow in the low to mid levels will limit overall storm organization, but transient supercell/multicells are possible. The stronger storms may be capable of a localized hail/wind threat. ...Southwest IA... A strengthening warm-air advection regime overnight from KS into MO/IA will likely lead to the development of widely scattered showers/thunderstorms in the vicinity of a warm front. Forecast soundings show elevated instability (1000 J/kg MUCAPE) developing as the profile moistens near 850 mb. A stronger storm capable of small to marginally severe hail cannot be ruled out, but the threat appears too limited to introduce low-severe probabilities. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across the western Gulf Coast States on Friday into Friday night, and from Nebraska into parts of the Upper Midwest on Friday evening/night. ...East/south TX and LA... A below-average confidence forecast is apparent with extensive preceding convection late D1 through D2 ahead of a low-amplitude shortwave trough drifting east-northeast across south TX. Moist-adiabatic thermodynamic profiles should be prevalent ahead of this trough on Friday. Surface-based destabilization will probably remain weak but occur within a rich western Gulf airmass. Moderate low-level shear may be adequate for brief tornado and localized damaging wind threats through the period. These should be focused in the first half of the period along the TX coastal plain before shifting more into LA on Friday afternoon and lingering along the LA coast through Friday night. ...NE to WI... Very steep mid-level lapse rates around 8.5-9 C/km will be prevalent within a stout EML atop a pronounced baroclinic zone from the Upper Midwest into the central High Plains. With potential for multiple, low-amplitude shortwave impulses migrating through the zonal flow regime along the international border and moving northeast across the central/southern Rockies, isolated to scattered convective development is anticipated by Friday evening/night. Most of this activity should tend to be elevated or become undercut as the baroclinic zone shifts southeast with a building surface ridge from the Canadian Prairies. Faster mid-level westerlies should occur across the southern MN to WI corridor, with stronger low-level mass response in NE. Setup should support an isolated large hail threat. ..Grams.. 03/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across the western Gulf Coast States on Friday into Friday night, and from Nebraska into parts of the Upper Midwest on Friday evening/night. ...East/south TX and LA... A below-average confidence forecast is apparent with extensive preceding convection late D1 through D2 ahead of a low-amplitude shortwave trough drifting east-northeast across south TX. Moist-adiabatic thermodynamic profiles should be prevalent ahead of this trough on Friday. Surface-based destabilization will probably remain weak but occur within a rich western Gulf airmass. Moderate low-level shear may be adequate for brief tornado and localized damaging wind threats through the period. These should be focused in the first half of the period along the TX coastal plain before shifting more into LA on Friday afternoon and lingering along the LA coast through Friday night. ...NE to WI... Very steep mid-level lapse rates around 8.5-9 C/km will be prevalent within a stout EML atop a pronounced baroclinic zone from the Upper Midwest into the central High Plains. With potential for multiple, low-amplitude shortwave impulses migrating through the zonal flow regime along the international border and moving northeast across the central/southern Rockies, isolated to scattered convective development is anticipated by Friday evening/night. Most of this activity should tend to be elevated or become undercut as the baroclinic zone shifts southeast with a building surface ridge from the Canadian Prairies. Faster mid-level westerlies should occur across the southern MN to WI corridor, with stronger low-level mass response in NE. Setup should support an isolated large hail threat. ..Grams.. 03/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across the western Gulf Coast States on Friday into Friday night, and from Nebraska into parts of the Upper Midwest on Friday evening/night. ...East/south TX and LA... A below-average confidence forecast is apparent with extensive preceding convection late D1 through D2 ahead of a low-amplitude shortwave trough drifting east-northeast across south TX. Moist-adiabatic thermodynamic profiles should be prevalent ahead of this trough on Friday. Surface-based destabilization will probably remain weak but occur within a rich western Gulf airmass. Moderate low-level shear may be adequate for brief tornado and localized damaging wind threats through the period. These should be focused in the first half of the period along the TX coastal plain before shifting more into LA on Friday afternoon and lingering along the LA coast through Friday night. ...NE to WI... Very steep mid-level lapse rates around 8.5-9 C/km will be prevalent within a stout EML atop a pronounced baroclinic zone from the Upper Midwest into the central High Plains. With potential for multiple, low-amplitude shortwave impulses migrating through the zonal flow regime along the international border and moving northeast across the central/southern Rockies, isolated to scattered convective development is anticipated by Friday evening/night. Most of this activity should tend to be elevated or become undercut as the baroclinic zone shifts southeast with a building surface ridge from the Canadian Prairies. Faster mid-level westerlies should occur across the southern MN to WI corridor, with stronger low-level mass response in NE. Setup should support an isolated large hail threat. ..Grams.. 03/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across the western Gulf Coast States on Friday into Friday night, and from Nebraska into parts of the Upper Midwest on Friday evening/night. ...East/south TX and LA... A below-average confidence forecast is apparent with extensive preceding convection late D1 through D2 ahead of a low-amplitude shortwave trough drifting east-northeast across south TX. Moist-adiabatic thermodynamic profiles should be prevalent ahead of this trough on Friday. Surface-based destabilization will probably remain weak but occur within a rich western Gulf airmass. Moderate low-level shear may be adequate for brief tornado and localized damaging wind threats through the period. These should be focused in the first half of the period along the TX coastal plain before shifting more into LA on Friday afternoon and lingering along the LA coast through Friday night. ...NE to WI... Very steep mid-level lapse rates around 8.5-9 C/km will be prevalent within a stout EML atop a pronounced baroclinic zone from the Upper Midwest into the central High Plains. With potential for multiple, low-amplitude shortwave impulses migrating through the zonal flow regime along the international border and moving northeast across the central/southern Rockies, isolated to scattered convective development is anticipated by Friday evening/night. Most of this activity should tend to be elevated or become undercut as the baroclinic zone shifts southeast with a building surface ridge from the Canadian Prairies. Faster mid-level westerlies should occur across the southern MN to WI corridor, with stronger low-level mass response in NE. Setup should support an isolated large hail threat. ..Grams.. 03/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across the western Gulf Coast States on Friday into Friday night, and from Nebraska into parts of the Upper Midwest on Friday evening/night. ...East/south TX and LA... A below-average confidence forecast is apparent with extensive preceding convection late D1 through D2 ahead of a low-amplitude shortwave trough drifting east-northeast across south TX. Moist-adiabatic thermodynamic profiles should be prevalent ahead of this trough on Friday. Surface-based destabilization will probably remain weak but occur within a rich western Gulf airmass. Moderate low-level shear may be adequate for brief tornado and localized damaging wind threats through the period. These should be focused in the first half of the period along the TX coastal plain before shifting more into LA on Friday afternoon and lingering along the LA coast through Friday night. ...NE to WI... Very steep mid-level lapse rates around 8.5-9 C/km will be prevalent within a stout EML atop a pronounced baroclinic zone from the Upper Midwest into the central High Plains. With potential for multiple, low-amplitude shortwave impulses migrating through the zonal flow regime along the international border and moving northeast across the central/southern Rockies, isolated to scattered convective development is anticipated by Friday evening/night. Most of this activity should tend to be elevated or become undercut as the baroclinic zone shifts southeast with a building surface ridge from the Canadian Prairies. Faster mid-level westerlies should occur across the southern MN to WI corridor, with stronger low-level mass response in NE. Setup should support an isolated large hail threat. ..Grams.. 03/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across the western Gulf Coast States on Friday into Friday night, and from Nebraska into parts of the Upper Midwest on Friday evening/night. ...East/south TX and LA... A below-average confidence forecast is apparent with extensive preceding convection late D1 through D2 ahead of a low-amplitude shortwave trough drifting east-northeast across south TX. Moist-adiabatic thermodynamic profiles should be prevalent ahead of this trough on Friday. Surface-based destabilization will probably remain weak but occur within a rich western Gulf airmass. Moderate low-level shear may be adequate for brief tornado and localized damaging wind threats through the period. These should be focused in the first half of the period along the TX coastal plain before shifting more into LA on Friday afternoon and lingering along the LA coast through Friday night. ...NE to WI... Very steep mid-level lapse rates around 8.5-9 C/km will be prevalent within a stout EML atop a pronounced baroclinic zone from the Upper Midwest into the central High Plains. With potential for multiple, low-amplitude shortwave impulses migrating through the zonal flow regime along the international border and moving northeast across the central/southern Rockies, isolated to scattered convective development is anticipated by Friday evening/night. Most of this activity should tend to be elevated or become undercut as the baroclinic zone shifts southeast with a building surface ridge from the Canadian Prairies. Faster mid-level westerlies should occur across the southern MN to WI corridor, with stronger low-level mass response in NE. Setup should support an isolated large hail threat. ..Grams.. 03/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across the western Gulf Coast States on Friday into Friday night, and from Nebraska into parts of the Upper Midwest on Friday evening/night. ...East/south TX and LA... A below-average confidence forecast is apparent with extensive preceding convection late D1 through D2 ahead of a low-amplitude shortwave trough drifting east-northeast across south TX. Moist-adiabatic thermodynamic profiles should be prevalent ahead of this trough on Friday. Surface-based destabilization will probably remain weak but occur within a rich western Gulf airmass. Moderate low-level shear may be adequate for brief tornado and localized damaging wind threats through the period. These should be focused in the first half of the period along the TX coastal plain before shifting more into LA on Friday afternoon and lingering along the LA coast through Friday night. ...NE to WI... Very steep mid-level lapse rates around 8.5-9 C/km will be prevalent within a stout EML atop a pronounced baroclinic zone from the Upper Midwest into the central High Plains. With potential for multiple, low-amplitude shortwave impulses migrating through the zonal flow regime along the international border and moving northeast across the central/southern Rockies, isolated to scattered convective development is anticipated by Friday evening/night. Most of this activity should tend to be elevated or become undercut as the baroclinic zone shifts southeast with a building surface ridge from the Canadian Prairies. Faster mid-level westerlies should occur across the southern MN to WI corridor, with stronger low-level mass response in NE. Setup should support an isolated large hail threat. ..Grams.. 03/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across the western Gulf Coast States on Friday into Friday night, and from Nebraska into parts of the Upper Midwest on Friday evening/night. ...East/south TX and LA... A below-average confidence forecast is apparent with extensive preceding convection late D1 through D2 ahead of a low-amplitude shortwave trough drifting east-northeast across south TX. Moist-adiabatic thermodynamic profiles should be prevalent ahead of this trough on Friday. Surface-based destabilization will probably remain weak but occur within a rich western Gulf airmass. Moderate low-level shear may be adequate for brief tornado and localized damaging wind threats through the period. These should be focused in the first half of the period along the TX coastal plain before shifting more into LA on Friday afternoon and lingering along the LA coast through Friday night. ...NE to WI... Very steep mid-level lapse rates around 8.5-9 C/km will be prevalent within a stout EML atop a pronounced baroclinic zone from the Upper Midwest into the central High Plains. With potential for multiple, low-amplitude shortwave impulses migrating through the zonal flow regime along the international border and moving northeast across the central/southern Rockies, isolated to scattered convective development is anticipated by Friday evening/night. Most of this activity should tend to be elevated or become undercut as the baroclinic zone shifts southeast with a building surface ridge from the Canadian Prairies. Faster mid-level westerlies should occur across the southern MN to WI corridor, with stronger low-level mass response in NE. Setup should support an isolated large hail threat. ..Grams.. 03/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across the western Gulf Coast States on Friday into Friday night, and from Nebraska into parts of the Upper Midwest on Friday evening/night. ...East/south TX and LA... A below-average confidence forecast is apparent with extensive preceding convection late D1 through D2 ahead of a low-amplitude shortwave trough drifting east-northeast across south TX. Moist-adiabatic thermodynamic profiles should be prevalent ahead of this trough on Friday. Surface-based destabilization will probably remain weak but occur within a rich western Gulf airmass. Moderate low-level shear may be adequate for brief tornado and localized damaging wind threats through the period. These should be focused in the first half of the period along the TX coastal plain before shifting more into LA on Friday afternoon and lingering along the LA coast through Friday night. ...NE to WI... Very steep mid-level lapse rates around 8.5-9 C/km will be prevalent within a stout EML atop a pronounced baroclinic zone from the Upper Midwest into the central High Plains. With potential for multiple, low-amplitude shortwave impulses migrating through the zonal flow regime along the international border and moving northeast across the central/southern Rockies, isolated to scattered convective development is anticipated by Friday evening/night. Most of this activity should tend to be elevated or become undercut as the baroclinic zone shifts southeast with a building surface ridge from the Canadian Prairies. Faster mid-level westerlies should occur across the southern MN to WI corridor, with stronger low-level mass response in NE. Setup should support an isolated large hail threat. ..Grams.. 03/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across the western Gulf Coast States on Friday into Friday night, and from Nebraska into parts of the Upper Midwest on Friday evening/night. ...East/south TX and LA... A below-average confidence forecast is apparent with extensive preceding convection late D1 through D2 ahead of a low-amplitude shortwave trough drifting east-northeast across south TX. Moist-adiabatic thermodynamic profiles should be prevalent ahead of this trough on Friday. Surface-based destabilization will probably remain weak but occur within a rich western Gulf airmass. Moderate low-level shear may be adequate for brief tornado and localized damaging wind threats through the period. These should be focused in the first half of the period along the TX coastal plain before shifting more into LA on Friday afternoon and lingering along the LA coast through Friday night. ...NE to WI... Very steep mid-level lapse rates around 8.5-9 C/km will be prevalent within a stout EML atop a pronounced baroclinic zone from the Upper Midwest into the central High Plains. With potential for multiple, low-amplitude shortwave impulses migrating through the zonal flow regime along the international border and moving northeast across the central/southern Rockies, isolated to scattered convective development is anticipated by Friday evening/night. Most of this activity should tend to be elevated or become undercut as the baroclinic zone shifts southeast with a building surface ridge from the Canadian Prairies. Faster mid-level westerlies should occur across the southern MN to WI corridor, with stronger low-level mass response in NE. Setup should support an isolated large hail threat. ..Grams.. 03/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across the western Gulf Coast States on Friday into Friday night, and from Nebraska into parts of the Upper Midwest on Friday evening/night. ...East/south TX and LA... A below-average confidence forecast is apparent with extensive preceding convection late D1 through D2 ahead of a low-amplitude shortwave trough drifting east-northeast across south TX. Moist-adiabatic thermodynamic profiles should be prevalent ahead of this trough on Friday. Surface-based destabilization will probably remain weak but occur within a rich western Gulf airmass. Moderate low-level shear may be adequate for brief tornado and localized damaging wind threats through the period. These should be focused in the first half of the period along the TX coastal plain before shifting more into LA on Friday afternoon and lingering along the LA coast through Friday night. ...NE to WI... Very steep mid-level lapse rates around 8.5-9 C/km will be prevalent within a stout EML atop a pronounced baroclinic zone from the Upper Midwest into the central High Plains. With potential for multiple, low-amplitude shortwave impulses migrating through the zonal flow regime along the international border and moving northeast across the central/southern Rockies, isolated to scattered convective development is anticipated by Friday evening/night. Most of this activity should tend to be elevated or become undercut as the baroclinic zone shifts southeast with a building surface ridge from the Canadian Prairies. Faster mid-level westerlies should occur across the southern MN to WI corridor, with stronger low-level mass response in NE. Setup should support an isolated large hail threat. ..Grams.. 03/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across the western Gulf Coast States on Friday into Friday night, and from Nebraska into parts of the Upper Midwest on Friday evening/night. ...East/south TX and LA... A below-average confidence forecast is apparent with extensive preceding convection late D1 through D2 ahead of a low-amplitude shortwave trough drifting east-northeast across south TX. Moist-adiabatic thermodynamic profiles should be prevalent ahead of this trough on Friday. Surface-based destabilization will probably remain weak but occur within a rich western Gulf airmass. Moderate low-level shear may be adequate for brief tornado and localized damaging wind threats through the period. These should be focused in the first half of the period along the TX coastal plain before shifting more into LA on Friday afternoon and lingering along the LA coast through Friday night. ...NE to WI... Very steep mid-level lapse rates around 8.5-9 C/km will be prevalent within a stout EML atop a pronounced baroclinic zone from the Upper Midwest into the central High Plains. With potential for multiple, low-amplitude shortwave impulses migrating through the zonal flow regime along the international border and moving northeast across the central/southern Rockies, isolated to scattered convective development is anticipated by Friday evening/night. Most of this activity should tend to be elevated or become undercut as the baroclinic zone shifts southeast with a building surface ridge from the Canadian Prairies. Faster mid-level westerlies should occur across the southern MN to WI corridor, with stronger low-level mass response in NE. Setup should support an isolated large hail threat. ..Grams.. 03/26/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...KS/OK... An Elevated risk area has been introduced to portions of southwest Kansas into northwest OK and parts of the OK/TX Panhandles. Recent guidance continues to show a strong signal for 20-25 mph winds across the southern the central Plains. Drier solutions that have captured recent moisture return and RH trends well across the southern Plains suggest 20-25% RH will be common by mid-afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms are possible by early evening, but a few hours of elevated fire weather conditions appear probable across a region with receptive fuels (as evidenced by ongoing fires across northern OK and central OK). ...Mid-Atlantic... Dry conditions are expected to prevail across the Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic states. Afternoon RH minimums in the 20-25% range are expected, but building surface high pressure should limit wind speeds. ...Great Basin into the northern Rockies... Widespread gradient winds between 20-25 mph are expected across a large swath of the northern Great Basin into central WY. Dry conditions currently in place across NV will spread northeast with RH reductions into the teens to low 20s. Although widespread elevated fire weather conditions are expected, latest fuel guidance suggests ERCs are largely near to below seasonal values for late March, which should limit the overall fire potential. ...New Mexico... Only minor adjustments were made to the ongoing dry-thunderstorm risk area across New Mexico based on trends in recent CAM guidance. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 03/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0207 AM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging over the western US will gradually move eastward as an upper trough and strong jet begin to move offshore. A cold front will move over much of the Southeast with a dry air mass and high pressure in its wake. Over the west, a weak upper trough and low-level moisture will move into parts of the southern Plains supporting thunderstorm chances. ...Southwest and southern Plains... With the weak upper trough remaining relatively stationary beneath the upper ridge, another round of isolated diurnal storms will be possible across much of NM into west TX. Likely high-based, storms along the western edge of the more robust moisture return are unlikely to produce significant wetting rainfall. However, steep lapse rates and sufficient PWAT values (0.5-0.8 in) for weak buoyancy may allow for isolated lightning strikes within a region of dry and receptive fuels. Dry thunderstorm probabilities have been maintained across parts of NM. Ahead of the deeper moisture across parts of OK and KS, a few hours of locally elevated conditions are possible with dry southerly winds. While RH appears unlikely to reach critical criteria, southerly gusts of 20-25 mph and afternoon minimums near 30% will overlap with areas of very dry fuels. This may support some localized fire-weather concerns. ...FL... Relatively dry conditions are likely in a post-frontal air mass across parts of the FL Peninsula Thursday afternoon and evening. With light northeasterly winds and warm temperatures, inland RH values below 35% appear likely across central and western parts of the Peninsula. While surface winds are not expected to be overly strong (generally less than 10 mph), occasional stronger gusts overlapping with the low RH and very dry fuels could support a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more