Aggregator

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0409 AM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025 Valid 311200Z - 051200Z CORRECTED GRAPHIC ...DISCUSSION... Widespread storms and at least some attendant severe risk will be ongoing at the start of the Day 4 period (Monday March 31) -- with the band of convection likely extending along the west slopes of the Appalachians initially. Diurnal destabilization along and east of the mountains remains a question, particularly with northward extent into the Northeast, and thus the northern periphery of the risk area remains in question -- in what will likely be a very low CAPE/high shear environment -- suggestive of damaging gusts being the primary concern over northern portions of the area. Farther south, greater CAPE is expected, particularly from the Carolinas into the central Gulf Coast states. Here, an all-hazards risk is forecast to continue from the Day 3 period into Day 4. Storms/severe risk will shift eastward with time, crossing the East Coast states through the afternoon and evening, before clearing the coast overnight. Day 5/Tuesday looks to be a relative down day in terms of severe potential, with moisture beginning to return northward into the central U.S. ahead of the next system. Day 6/Wednesday, moisture will continue returning northward across the central U.S., though substantial differences in timing/evolution of the upper system exists between the (slower) ECMWF and (faster) GFS. However, the GEFS ensemble mean is slower than the operational GFS, not quite as slow as but more in line with the ECMWF -- and the Euro ensemble mean. Given this, confidence is high enough to proceed with introduction of a broad -- though areally uncertain -- 15% area. This system would appear to have the potential to produce another fairly widespread/all-hazards severe event, but will likely require a good bit of adjustment over the next few days. Beyond Day 6, confidence in evolution of the large-scale features diminishes further, due to the aforementioned differences between operations runs of the global models. As such, no areas will be delineated beyond Day 6. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0409 AM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025 Valid 311200Z - 051200Z CORRECTED GRAPHIC ...DISCUSSION... Widespread storms and at least some attendant severe risk will be ongoing at the start of the Day 4 period (Monday March 31) -- with the band of convection likely extending along the west slopes of the Appalachians initially. Diurnal destabilization along and east of the mountains remains a question, particularly with northward extent into the Northeast, and thus the northern periphery of the risk area remains in question -- in what will likely be a very low CAPE/high shear environment -- suggestive of damaging gusts being the primary concern over northern portions of the area. Farther south, greater CAPE is expected, particularly from the Carolinas into the central Gulf Coast states. Here, an all-hazards risk is forecast to continue from the Day 3 period into Day 4. Storms/severe risk will shift eastward with time, crossing the East Coast states through the afternoon and evening, before clearing the coast overnight. Day 5/Tuesday looks to be a relative down day in terms of severe potential, with moisture beginning to return northward into the central U.S. ahead of the next system. Day 6/Wednesday, moisture will continue returning northward across the central U.S., though substantial differences in timing/evolution of the upper system exists between the (slower) ECMWF and (faster) GFS. However, the GEFS ensemble mean is slower than the operational GFS, not quite as slow as but more in line with the ECMWF -- and the Euro ensemble mean. Given this, confidence is high enough to proceed with introduction of a broad -- though areally uncertain -- 15% area. This system would appear to have the potential to produce another fairly widespread/all-hazards severe event, but will likely require a good bit of adjustment over the next few days. Beyond Day 6, confidence in evolution of the large-scale features diminishes further, due to the aforementioned differences between operations runs of the global models. As such, no areas will be delineated beyond Day 6. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025 Valid 311200Z - 051200Z ...DISCUSSION... Widespread storms and at least some attendant severe risk will be ongoing at the start of the Day 4 period (Monday March 31) -- with the band of convection likely extending along the west slopes of the Appalachians initially. Diurnal destabilization along and east of the mountains remains a question, particularly with northward extent into the Northeast, and thus the northern periphery of the risk area remains in question -- in what will likely be a very low CAPE/high shear environment -- suggestive of damaging gusts being the primary concern over northern portions of the area. Farther south, greater CAPE is expected, particularly from the Carolinas into the central Gulf Coast states. Here, an all-hazards risk is forecast to continue from the Day 3 period into Day 4. Storms/severe risk will shift eastward with time, crossing the East Coast states through the afternoon and evening, before clearing the coast overnight. Day 5/Tuesday looks to be a relative down day in terms of severe potential, with moisture beginning to return northward into the central U.S. ahead of the next system. Day 6/Wednesday, moisture will continue returning northward across the central U.S., though substantial differences in timing/evolution of the upper system exists between the (slower) ECMWF and (faster) GFS. However, the GEFS ensemble mean is slower than the operational GFS, not quite as slow as but more in line with the ECMWF -- and the Euro ensemble mean. Given this, confidence is high enough to proceed with introduction of a broad -- though areally uncertain -- 15% area. This system would appear to have the potential to produce another fairly widespread/all-hazards severe event, but will likely require a good bit of adjustment over the next few days. Beyond Day 6, confidence in evolution of the large-scale features diminishes further, due to the aforementioned differences between operations runs of the global models. As such, no areas will be delineated beyond Day 6. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0240 AM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM ILLINOIS/INDIANA/WESTERN OHIO SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE ARKANSAS/NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... A widespread/substantial severe-weather episode is forecast across an area centered on the Ohio/Mid and Lower Mississippi/Lower Missouri/Tennessee River Valleys. Very large hail, damaging winds, and strong tornadoes are expected. ...Synopsis... An evolving/slowly amplifying mid-level trough is forecast to shift slowly across the central U.S. Sunday. As this occurs, a deepening surface low will shift northeastward across the Upper Great Lakes region. A trailing cold front will sweep southeastward across the central U.S. as the low deepens/advances, and should extend from the Lower Great Lakes to the central Gulf Coast states by Monday morning. ...Lower Great Lakes to the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys... A broad/moist but initially capped airmass is forecast to expand across much of the eastern half of the U.S. Sunday, ahead of the advancing cold front. Daytime heating, and continued northward flux of low-level moisture will result in a moderate destabilization. Scattered storms may be ongoing across portions of Missouri northeastward to the Wisconsin area at the start of the period, and possibly in a more isolated manner southwestward into Texas. Local severe risk may accompany this early-day convection. The aforementioned destabilization that is expected should support renewed storm development near the advancing cold front -- initially from Illinois southwestward to East Texas, and then spreading eastward/expanding in coverage with time. Along with the favorable thermodynamic environment within which the storms will be evolving, highly favorable shear will also exist, with low-level southerly/southwesterly flow veering and increasing substantially with height yielding curved -- and then elongated -- hodographs. Supercells are expected within this environment, and very large hail is expected given the cold air/steep lapse rates through the mid troposphere. Along with the hail risk, damaging wind gusts are expected -- particularly where upscale growth into bands occurs. Additionally, this setup appears very favorable for tornadoes, a few of which may be strong/potentially long-lived. Risk will spread eastward with time into the evening/overnight. Some diminishing of the risk should occur late into the upper Ohio Valley, but vigorous storms and all-hazards risk will likely continue through the end of the period across the Tennessee Valley/Gulf Coast states. ..Goss.. 03/28/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0240 AM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM ILLINOIS/INDIANA/WESTERN OHIO SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE ARKANSAS/NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... A widespread/substantial severe-weather episode is forecast across an area centered on the Ohio/Mid and Lower Mississippi/Lower Missouri/Tennessee River Valleys. Very large hail, damaging winds, and strong tornadoes are expected. ...Synopsis... An evolving/slowly amplifying mid-level trough is forecast to shift slowly across the central U.S. Sunday. As this occurs, a deepening surface low will shift northeastward across the Upper Great Lakes region. A trailing cold front will sweep southeastward across the central U.S. as the low deepens/advances, and should extend from the Lower Great Lakes to the central Gulf Coast states by Monday morning. ...Lower Great Lakes to the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys... A broad/moist but initially capped airmass is forecast to expand across much of the eastern half of the U.S. Sunday, ahead of the advancing cold front. Daytime heating, and continued northward flux of low-level moisture will result in a moderate destabilization. Scattered storms may be ongoing across portions of Missouri northeastward to the Wisconsin area at the start of the period, and possibly in a more isolated manner southwestward into Texas. Local severe risk may accompany this early-day convection. The aforementioned destabilization that is expected should support renewed storm development near the advancing cold front -- initially from Illinois southwestward to East Texas, and then spreading eastward/expanding in coverage with time. Along with the favorable thermodynamic environment within which the storms will be evolving, highly favorable shear will also exist, with low-level southerly/southwesterly flow veering and increasing substantially with height yielding curved -- and then elongated -- hodographs. Supercells are expected within this environment, and very large hail is expected given the cold air/steep lapse rates through the mid troposphere. Along with the hail risk, damaging wind gusts are expected -- particularly where upscale growth into bands occurs. Additionally, this setup appears very favorable for tornadoes, a few of which may be strong/potentially long-lived. Risk will spread eastward with time into the evening/overnight. Some diminishing of the risk should occur late into the upper Ohio Valley, but vigorous storms and all-hazards risk will likely continue through the end of the period across the Tennessee Valley/Gulf Coast states. ..Goss.. 03/28/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0240 AM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM ILLINOIS/INDIANA/WESTERN OHIO SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE ARKANSAS/NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... A widespread/substantial severe-weather episode is forecast across an area centered on the Ohio/Mid and Lower Mississippi/Lower Missouri/Tennessee River Valleys. Very large hail, damaging winds, and strong tornadoes are expected. ...Synopsis... An evolving/slowly amplifying mid-level trough is forecast to shift slowly across the central U.S. Sunday. As this occurs, a deepening surface low will shift northeastward across the Upper Great Lakes region. A trailing cold front will sweep southeastward across the central U.S. as the low deepens/advances, and should extend from the Lower Great Lakes to the central Gulf Coast states by Monday morning. ...Lower Great Lakes to the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys... A broad/moist but initially capped airmass is forecast to expand across much of the eastern half of the U.S. Sunday, ahead of the advancing cold front. Daytime heating, and continued northward flux of low-level moisture will result in a moderate destabilization. Scattered storms may be ongoing across portions of Missouri northeastward to the Wisconsin area at the start of the period, and possibly in a more isolated manner southwestward into Texas. Local severe risk may accompany this early-day convection. The aforementioned destabilization that is expected should support renewed storm development near the advancing cold front -- initially from Illinois southwestward to East Texas, and then spreading eastward/expanding in coverage with time. Along with the favorable thermodynamic environment within which the storms will be evolving, highly favorable shear will also exist, with low-level southerly/southwesterly flow veering and increasing substantially with height yielding curved -- and then elongated -- hodographs. Supercells are expected within this environment, and very large hail is expected given the cold air/steep lapse rates through the mid troposphere. Along with the hail risk, damaging wind gusts are expected -- particularly where upscale growth into bands occurs. Additionally, this setup appears very favorable for tornadoes, a few of which may be strong/potentially long-lived. Risk will spread eastward with time into the evening/overnight. Some diminishing of the risk should occur late into the upper Ohio Valley, but vigorous storms and all-hazards risk will likely continue through the end of the period across the Tennessee Valley/Gulf Coast states. ..Goss.. 03/28/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0240 AM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM ILLINOIS/INDIANA/WESTERN OHIO SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE ARKANSAS/NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... A widespread/substantial severe-weather episode is forecast across an area centered on the Ohio/Mid and Lower Mississippi/Lower Missouri/Tennessee River Valleys. Very large hail, damaging winds, and strong tornadoes are expected. ...Synopsis... An evolving/slowly amplifying mid-level trough is forecast to shift slowly across the central U.S. Sunday. As this occurs, a deepening surface low will shift northeastward across the Upper Great Lakes region. A trailing cold front will sweep southeastward across the central U.S. as the low deepens/advances, and should extend from the Lower Great Lakes to the central Gulf Coast states by Monday morning. ...Lower Great Lakes to the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys... A broad/moist but initially capped airmass is forecast to expand across much of the eastern half of the U.S. Sunday, ahead of the advancing cold front. Daytime heating, and continued northward flux of low-level moisture will result in a moderate destabilization. Scattered storms may be ongoing across portions of Missouri northeastward to the Wisconsin area at the start of the period, and possibly in a more isolated manner southwestward into Texas. Local severe risk may accompany this early-day convection. The aforementioned destabilization that is expected should support renewed storm development near the advancing cold front -- initially from Illinois southwestward to East Texas, and then spreading eastward/expanding in coverage with time. Along with the favorable thermodynamic environment within which the storms will be evolving, highly favorable shear will also exist, with low-level southerly/southwesterly flow veering and increasing substantially with height yielding curved -- and then elongated -- hodographs. Supercells are expected within this environment, and very large hail is expected given the cold air/steep lapse rates through the mid troposphere. Along with the hail risk, damaging wind gusts are expected -- particularly where upscale growth into bands occurs. Additionally, this setup appears very favorable for tornadoes, a few of which may be strong/potentially long-lived. Risk will spread eastward with time into the evening/overnight. Some diminishing of the risk should occur late into the upper Ohio Valley, but vigorous storms and all-hazards risk will likely continue through the end of the period across the Tennessee Valley/Gulf Coast states. ..Goss.. 03/28/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0240 AM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM ILLINOIS/INDIANA/WESTERN OHIO SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE ARKANSAS/NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... A widespread/substantial severe-weather episode is forecast across an area centered on the Ohio/Mid and Lower Mississippi/Lower Missouri/Tennessee River Valleys. Very large hail, damaging winds, and strong tornadoes are expected. ...Synopsis... An evolving/slowly amplifying mid-level trough is forecast to shift slowly across the central U.S. Sunday. As this occurs, a deepening surface low will shift northeastward across the Upper Great Lakes region. A trailing cold front will sweep southeastward across the central U.S. as the low deepens/advances, and should extend from the Lower Great Lakes to the central Gulf Coast states by Monday morning. ...Lower Great Lakes to the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys... A broad/moist but initially capped airmass is forecast to expand across much of the eastern half of the U.S. Sunday, ahead of the advancing cold front. Daytime heating, and continued northward flux of low-level moisture will result in a moderate destabilization. Scattered storms may be ongoing across portions of Missouri northeastward to the Wisconsin area at the start of the period, and possibly in a more isolated manner southwestward into Texas. Local severe risk may accompany this early-day convection. The aforementioned destabilization that is expected should support renewed storm development near the advancing cold front -- initially from Illinois southwestward to East Texas, and then spreading eastward/expanding in coverage with time. Along with the favorable thermodynamic environment within which the storms will be evolving, highly favorable shear will also exist, with low-level southerly/southwesterly flow veering and increasing substantially with height yielding curved -- and then elongated -- hodographs. Supercells are expected within this environment, and very large hail is expected given the cold air/steep lapse rates through the mid troposphere. Along with the hail risk, damaging wind gusts are expected -- particularly where upscale growth into bands occurs. Additionally, this setup appears very favorable for tornadoes, a few of which may be strong/potentially long-lived. Risk will spread eastward with time into the evening/overnight. Some diminishing of the risk should occur late into the upper Ohio Valley, but vigorous storms and all-hazards risk will likely continue through the end of the period across the Tennessee Valley/Gulf Coast states. ..Goss.. 03/28/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0240 AM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM ILLINOIS/INDIANA/WESTERN OHIO SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE ARKANSAS/NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... A widespread/substantial severe-weather episode is forecast across an area centered on the Ohio/Mid and Lower Mississippi/Lower Missouri/Tennessee River Valleys. Very large hail, damaging winds, and strong tornadoes are expected. ...Synopsis... An evolving/slowly amplifying mid-level trough is forecast to shift slowly across the central U.S. Sunday. As this occurs, a deepening surface low will shift northeastward across the Upper Great Lakes region. A trailing cold front will sweep southeastward across the central U.S. as the low deepens/advances, and should extend from the Lower Great Lakes to the central Gulf Coast states by Monday morning. ...Lower Great Lakes to the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys... A broad/moist but initially capped airmass is forecast to expand across much of the eastern half of the U.S. Sunday, ahead of the advancing cold front. Daytime heating, and continued northward flux of low-level moisture will result in a moderate destabilization. Scattered storms may be ongoing across portions of Missouri northeastward to the Wisconsin area at the start of the period, and possibly in a more isolated manner southwestward into Texas. Local severe risk may accompany this early-day convection. The aforementioned destabilization that is expected should support renewed storm development near the advancing cold front -- initially from Illinois southwestward to East Texas, and then spreading eastward/expanding in coverage with time. Along with the favorable thermodynamic environment within which the storms will be evolving, highly favorable shear will also exist, with low-level southerly/southwesterly flow veering and increasing substantially with height yielding curved -- and then elongated -- hodographs. Supercells are expected within this environment, and very large hail is expected given the cold air/steep lapse rates through the mid troposphere. Along with the hail risk, damaging wind gusts are expected -- particularly where upscale growth into bands occurs. Additionally, this setup appears very favorable for tornadoes, a few of which may be strong/potentially long-lived. Risk will spread eastward with time into the evening/overnight. Some diminishing of the risk should occur late into the upper Ohio Valley, but vigorous storms and all-hazards risk will likely continue through the end of the period across the Tennessee Valley/Gulf Coast states. ..Goss.. 03/28/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS... ...Synopsis... Within the base of a broad large-scale trough over the West, a west-southwesterly midlevel jet streak will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains during the afternoon. In the low-levels, a lee cyclone will deepen over the central Plains, while a southward-extending dryline sharpens over the southern Plains. ...Southern New Mexico into West Texas... Despite increasing mid/high-level clouds accompanying the midlevel jet streak, the strong downslope flow will favor deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft west of the dryline. Here, 10-15 percent RH and around 20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) will yield critical fire-weather conditions during the afternoon, given antecedent drying of fine fuels. ..Weinman.. 03/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS... ...Synopsis... Within the base of a broad large-scale trough over the West, a west-southwesterly midlevel jet streak will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains during the afternoon. In the low-levels, a lee cyclone will deepen over the central Plains, while a southward-extending dryline sharpens over the southern Plains. ...Southern New Mexico into West Texas... Despite increasing mid/high-level clouds accompanying the midlevel jet streak, the strong downslope flow will favor deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft west of the dryline. Here, 10-15 percent RH and around 20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) will yield critical fire-weather conditions during the afternoon, given antecedent drying of fine fuels. ..Weinman.. 03/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS... ...Synopsis... Within the base of a broad large-scale trough over the West, a west-southwesterly midlevel jet streak will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains during the afternoon. In the low-levels, a lee cyclone will deepen over the central Plains, while a southward-extending dryline sharpens over the southern Plains. ...Southern New Mexico into West Texas... Despite increasing mid/high-level clouds accompanying the midlevel jet streak, the strong downslope flow will favor deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft west of the dryline. Here, 10-15 percent RH and around 20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) will yield critical fire-weather conditions during the afternoon, given antecedent drying of fine fuels. ..Weinman.. 03/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS... ...Synopsis... Within the base of a broad large-scale trough over the West, a west-southwesterly midlevel jet streak will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains during the afternoon. In the low-levels, a lee cyclone will deepen over the central Plains, while a southward-extending dryline sharpens over the southern Plains. ...Southern New Mexico into West Texas... Despite increasing mid/high-level clouds accompanying the midlevel jet streak, the strong downslope flow will favor deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft west of the dryline. Here, 10-15 percent RH and around 20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) will yield critical fire-weather conditions during the afternoon, given antecedent drying of fine fuels. ..Weinman.. 03/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS... ...Synopsis... Within the base of a broad large-scale trough over the West, a west-southwesterly midlevel jet streak will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains during the afternoon. In the low-levels, a lee cyclone will deepen over the central Plains, while a southward-extending dryline sharpens over the southern Plains. ...Southern New Mexico into West Texas... Despite increasing mid/high-level clouds accompanying the midlevel jet streak, the strong downslope flow will favor deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft west of the dryline. Here, 10-15 percent RH and around 20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) will yield critical fire-weather conditions during the afternoon, given antecedent drying of fine fuels. ..Weinman.. 03/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS... ...Synopsis... Within the base of a broad large-scale trough over the West, a west-southwesterly midlevel jet streak will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains during the afternoon. In the low-levels, a lee cyclone will deepen over the central Plains, while a southward-extending dryline sharpens over the southern Plains. ...Southern New Mexico into West Texas... Despite increasing mid/high-level clouds accompanying the midlevel jet streak, the strong downslope flow will favor deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft west of the dryline. Here, 10-15 percent RH and around 20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) will yield critical fire-weather conditions during the afternoon, given antecedent drying of fine fuels. ..Weinman.. 03/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 AM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...Synopsis... A broad large-scale trough will encompass the western CONUS, while an embedded shortwave trough (accompanied by moderate west-southwesterly midlevel flow) advances east-northeastward across the southern/central Rockies. Deep boundary-layer mixing into the strengthening flow aloft will yield 10-15 percent RH and breezy west-southwesterly surface winds across much of NM into southern CO. As a result, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected. A separate embedded shortwave trough will overspread the northern Rockies/High Plains, while a related surface trough deepens over the central Plains. West of the surface trough, downslope flow and a modest pressure gradient will contribute to dry/breezy conditions over portions of NE into SD -- where elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. Farther east, breezy easterly surface winds will develop across the FL Peninsula -- on the southwestern periphery of an expansive surface high over the western Atlantic. Over portions of west-central and southwest FL, a well-mixed boundary layer and the breezy/gusty surface winds will contribute to elevated fire-weather conditions -- given very dry fuels over the area. Over the southern Appalachians and portions of the lower OH Valley, modestly breezy southerly surface winds and around 25-30 percent RH may support localized fire-weather concerns during the afternoon; however, marginal surface winds and RH cast uncertainty on the overall large-fire risk -- precluding highlights at this time. ..Weinman.. 03/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 AM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...Synopsis... A broad large-scale trough will encompass the western CONUS, while an embedded shortwave trough (accompanied by moderate west-southwesterly midlevel flow) advances east-northeastward across the southern/central Rockies. Deep boundary-layer mixing into the strengthening flow aloft will yield 10-15 percent RH and breezy west-southwesterly surface winds across much of NM into southern CO. As a result, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected. A separate embedded shortwave trough will overspread the northern Rockies/High Plains, while a related surface trough deepens over the central Plains. West of the surface trough, downslope flow and a modest pressure gradient will contribute to dry/breezy conditions over portions of NE into SD -- where elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. Farther east, breezy easterly surface winds will develop across the FL Peninsula -- on the southwestern periphery of an expansive surface high over the western Atlantic. Over portions of west-central and southwest FL, a well-mixed boundary layer and the breezy/gusty surface winds will contribute to elevated fire-weather conditions -- given very dry fuels over the area. Over the southern Appalachians and portions of the lower OH Valley, modestly breezy southerly surface winds and around 25-30 percent RH may support localized fire-weather concerns during the afternoon; however, marginal surface winds and RH cast uncertainty on the overall large-fire risk -- precluding highlights at this time. ..Weinman.. 03/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 AM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...Synopsis... A broad large-scale trough will encompass the western CONUS, while an embedded shortwave trough (accompanied by moderate west-southwesterly midlevel flow) advances east-northeastward across the southern/central Rockies. Deep boundary-layer mixing into the strengthening flow aloft will yield 10-15 percent RH and breezy west-southwesterly surface winds across much of NM into southern CO. As a result, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected. A separate embedded shortwave trough will overspread the northern Rockies/High Plains, while a related surface trough deepens over the central Plains. West of the surface trough, downslope flow and a modest pressure gradient will contribute to dry/breezy conditions over portions of NE into SD -- where elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. Farther east, breezy easterly surface winds will develop across the FL Peninsula -- on the southwestern periphery of an expansive surface high over the western Atlantic. Over portions of west-central and southwest FL, a well-mixed boundary layer and the breezy/gusty surface winds will contribute to elevated fire-weather conditions -- given very dry fuels over the area. Over the southern Appalachians and portions of the lower OH Valley, modestly breezy southerly surface winds and around 25-30 percent RH may support localized fire-weather concerns during the afternoon; however, marginal surface winds and RH cast uncertainty on the overall large-fire risk -- precluding highlights at this time. ..Weinman.. 03/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 AM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...Synopsis... A broad large-scale trough will encompass the western CONUS, while an embedded shortwave trough (accompanied by moderate west-southwesterly midlevel flow) advances east-northeastward across the southern/central Rockies. Deep boundary-layer mixing into the strengthening flow aloft will yield 10-15 percent RH and breezy west-southwesterly surface winds across much of NM into southern CO. As a result, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected. A separate embedded shortwave trough will overspread the northern Rockies/High Plains, while a related surface trough deepens over the central Plains. West of the surface trough, downslope flow and a modest pressure gradient will contribute to dry/breezy conditions over portions of NE into SD -- where elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. Farther east, breezy easterly surface winds will develop across the FL Peninsula -- on the southwestern periphery of an expansive surface high over the western Atlantic. Over portions of west-central and southwest FL, a well-mixed boundary layer and the breezy/gusty surface winds will contribute to elevated fire-weather conditions -- given very dry fuels over the area. Over the southern Appalachians and portions of the lower OH Valley, modestly breezy southerly surface winds and around 25-30 percent RH may support localized fire-weather concerns during the afternoon; however, marginal surface winds and RH cast uncertainty on the overall large-fire risk -- precluding highlights at this time. ..Weinman.. 03/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 AM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...Synopsis... A broad large-scale trough will encompass the western CONUS, while an embedded shortwave trough (accompanied by moderate west-southwesterly midlevel flow) advances east-northeastward across the southern/central Rockies. Deep boundary-layer mixing into the strengthening flow aloft will yield 10-15 percent RH and breezy west-southwesterly surface winds across much of NM into southern CO. As a result, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected. A separate embedded shortwave trough will overspread the northern Rockies/High Plains, while a related surface trough deepens over the central Plains. West of the surface trough, downslope flow and a modest pressure gradient will contribute to dry/breezy conditions over portions of NE into SD -- where elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. Farther east, breezy easterly surface winds will develop across the FL Peninsula -- on the southwestern periphery of an expansive surface high over the western Atlantic. Over portions of west-central and southwest FL, a well-mixed boundary layer and the breezy/gusty surface winds will contribute to elevated fire-weather conditions -- given very dry fuels over the area. Over the southern Appalachians and portions of the lower OH Valley, modestly breezy southerly surface winds and around 25-30 percent RH may support localized fire-weather concerns during the afternoon; however, marginal surface winds and RH cast uncertainty on the overall large-fire risk -- precluding highlights at this time. ..Weinman.. 03/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more