Aggregator

No watches are valid as of Wed Mar 26 21:36:02 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 PM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 031200Z Portions of the southern High Plains will continue to see fire weather concerns heading into the late week and weekend period as a series of upper-level disturbances move across the region. Long-range guidance continues to show a transition to a more active/progressive upper-level regime heading into weekend, potentially persisting into the middle of next week. This regime change will feature increasing precipitation chances across much of the Intermountain West, Great Plains, and eastern U.S., but dry conditions are expected to persist across the Southwest into the southern High Plains. This will maintain antecedent dry fuels that will support a fire weather threat amid increasingly wind/dry conditions. ...D3/Friday into D5/Sunday - Southern High Plains... Medium to long-range solutions remain consistent in depicting a low-amplitude upper trough ejecting into the Southwest and southern High Plains during the D3/Friday to D4/Saturday period as long-wave troughing becomes established over the western CONUS. A westerly downslope flow regime is anticipated both days across NM into western TX as a surface low deepens over the High Plains and migrates eastward in tandem with the upper feature. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected both days with critical wind speeds most likely on D4/Saturday as the mid-level jet overspreads southern NM/southwest TX during peak heating. The eastward extent of elevated/critical fire weather conditions remains uncertain and will be conditional on the eastward progression of the dryline by late afternoon. Similarly, rain chances across southwest TX over the next 24 hours may hinder fuel status to some degree, but ongoing drought conditions may allow for sufficient recovery of fine fuels by Saturday afternoon. A second low-amplitude wave will likely pass over the Southwest on D5/Sunday and will promote secondary lee cyclone development across northeast NM into western TX. While spread regarding the intensity and evolution of this secondary low remains somewhat high, ensemble support remains sufficiently high to maintain highlights. Long-range ECMWF deterministic solutions and ECENS guidance hints that additional fire weather concerns are possible by the middle of next week as a robust surface low deepens over the Plains. GFS/GEFS solutions show zonal flow to slight ridging over the CONUS during this period, which limits confidence in the long-range fire weather prospects. ...D3/Friday into D4/Saturday - Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic... Dry conditions are expected to persist across the southern Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic region through the first half of the weekend. Strengthening gradient winds between an offshore surface high and an intensifying low over the Plains may result in periods of dry/windy conditions both D3/Friday and D4/Saturday. While confidence in critical conditions is too low for highlights, fire weather concerns may emerge given dry fuels and active fires across the region. ..Moore.. 03/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 PM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 031200Z Portions of the southern High Plains will continue to see fire weather concerns heading into the late week and weekend period as a series of upper-level disturbances move across the region. Long-range guidance continues to show a transition to a more active/progressive upper-level regime heading into weekend, potentially persisting into the middle of next week. This regime change will feature increasing precipitation chances across much of the Intermountain West, Great Plains, and eastern U.S., but dry conditions are expected to persist across the Southwest into the southern High Plains. This will maintain antecedent dry fuels that will support a fire weather threat amid increasingly wind/dry conditions. ...D3/Friday into D5/Sunday - Southern High Plains... Medium to long-range solutions remain consistent in depicting a low-amplitude upper trough ejecting into the Southwest and southern High Plains during the D3/Friday to D4/Saturday period as long-wave troughing becomes established over the western CONUS. A westerly downslope flow regime is anticipated both days across NM into western TX as a surface low deepens over the High Plains and migrates eastward in tandem with the upper feature. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected both days with critical wind speeds most likely on D4/Saturday as the mid-level jet overspreads southern NM/southwest TX during peak heating. The eastward extent of elevated/critical fire weather conditions remains uncertain and will be conditional on the eastward progression of the dryline by late afternoon. Similarly, rain chances across southwest TX over the next 24 hours may hinder fuel status to some degree, but ongoing drought conditions may allow for sufficient recovery of fine fuels by Saturday afternoon. A second low-amplitude wave will likely pass over the Southwest on D5/Sunday and will promote secondary lee cyclone development across northeast NM into western TX. While spread regarding the intensity and evolution of this secondary low remains somewhat high, ensemble support remains sufficiently high to maintain highlights. Long-range ECMWF deterministic solutions and ECENS guidance hints that additional fire weather concerns are possible by the middle of next week as a robust surface low deepens over the Plains. GFS/GEFS solutions show zonal flow to slight ridging over the CONUS during this period, which limits confidence in the long-range fire weather prospects. ...D3/Friday into D4/Saturday - Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic... Dry conditions are expected to persist across the southern Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic region through the first half of the weekend. Strengthening gradient winds between an offshore surface high and an intensifying low over the Plains may result in periods of dry/windy conditions both D3/Friday and D4/Saturday. While confidence in critical conditions is too low for highlights, fire weather concerns may emerge given dry fuels and active fires across the region. ..Moore.. 03/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 PM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 031200Z Portions of the southern High Plains will continue to see fire weather concerns heading into the late week and weekend period as a series of upper-level disturbances move across the region. Long-range guidance continues to show a transition to a more active/progressive upper-level regime heading into weekend, potentially persisting into the middle of next week. This regime change will feature increasing precipitation chances across much of the Intermountain West, Great Plains, and eastern U.S., but dry conditions are expected to persist across the Southwest into the southern High Plains. This will maintain antecedent dry fuels that will support a fire weather threat amid increasingly wind/dry conditions. ...D3/Friday into D5/Sunday - Southern High Plains... Medium to long-range solutions remain consistent in depicting a low-amplitude upper trough ejecting into the Southwest and southern High Plains during the D3/Friday to D4/Saturday period as long-wave troughing becomes established over the western CONUS. A westerly downslope flow regime is anticipated both days across NM into western TX as a surface low deepens over the High Plains and migrates eastward in tandem with the upper feature. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected both days with critical wind speeds most likely on D4/Saturday as the mid-level jet overspreads southern NM/southwest TX during peak heating. The eastward extent of elevated/critical fire weather conditions remains uncertain and will be conditional on the eastward progression of the dryline by late afternoon. Similarly, rain chances across southwest TX over the next 24 hours may hinder fuel status to some degree, but ongoing drought conditions may allow for sufficient recovery of fine fuels by Saturday afternoon. A second low-amplitude wave will likely pass over the Southwest on D5/Sunday and will promote secondary lee cyclone development across northeast NM into western TX. While spread regarding the intensity and evolution of this secondary low remains somewhat high, ensemble support remains sufficiently high to maintain highlights. Long-range ECMWF deterministic solutions and ECENS guidance hints that additional fire weather concerns are possible by the middle of next week as a robust surface low deepens over the Plains. GFS/GEFS solutions show zonal flow to slight ridging over the CONUS during this period, which limits confidence in the long-range fire weather prospects. ...D3/Friday into D4/Saturday - Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic... Dry conditions are expected to persist across the southern Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic region through the first half of the weekend. Strengthening gradient winds between an offshore surface high and an intensifying low over the Plains may result in periods of dry/windy conditions both D3/Friday and D4/Saturday. While confidence in critical conditions is too low for highlights, fire weather concerns may emerge given dry fuels and active fires across the region. ..Moore.. 03/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 PM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 031200Z Portions of the southern High Plains will continue to see fire weather concerns heading into the late week and weekend period as a series of upper-level disturbances move across the region. Long-range guidance continues to show a transition to a more active/progressive upper-level regime heading into weekend, potentially persisting into the middle of next week. This regime change will feature increasing precipitation chances across much of the Intermountain West, Great Plains, and eastern U.S., but dry conditions are expected to persist across the Southwest into the southern High Plains. This will maintain antecedent dry fuels that will support a fire weather threat amid increasingly wind/dry conditions. ...D3/Friday into D5/Sunday - Southern High Plains... Medium to long-range solutions remain consistent in depicting a low-amplitude upper trough ejecting into the Southwest and southern High Plains during the D3/Friday to D4/Saturday period as long-wave troughing becomes established over the western CONUS. A westerly downslope flow regime is anticipated both days across NM into western TX as a surface low deepens over the High Plains and migrates eastward in tandem with the upper feature. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected both days with critical wind speeds most likely on D4/Saturday as the mid-level jet overspreads southern NM/southwest TX during peak heating. The eastward extent of elevated/critical fire weather conditions remains uncertain and will be conditional on the eastward progression of the dryline by late afternoon. Similarly, rain chances across southwest TX over the next 24 hours may hinder fuel status to some degree, but ongoing drought conditions may allow for sufficient recovery of fine fuels by Saturday afternoon. A second low-amplitude wave will likely pass over the Southwest on D5/Sunday and will promote secondary lee cyclone development across northeast NM into western TX. While spread regarding the intensity and evolution of this secondary low remains somewhat high, ensemble support remains sufficiently high to maintain highlights. Long-range ECMWF deterministic solutions and ECENS guidance hints that additional fire weather concerns are possible by the middle of next week as a robust surface low deepens over the Plains. GFS/GEFS solutions show zonal flow to slight ridging over the CONUS during this period, which limits confidence in the long-range fire weather prospects. ...D3/Friday into D4/Saturday - Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic... Dry conditions are expected to persist across the southern Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic region through the first half of the weekend. Strengthening gradient winds between an offshore surface high and an intensifying low over the Plains may result in periods of dry/windy conditions both D3/Friday and D4/Saturday. While confidence in critical conditions is too low for highlights, fire weather concerns may emerge given dry fuels and active fires across the region. ..Moore.. 03/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 PM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 031200Z Portions of the southern High Plains will continue to see fire weather concerns heading into the late week and weekend period as a series of upper-level disturbances move across the region. Long-range guidance continues to show a transition to a more active/progressive upper-level regime heading into weekend, potentially persisting into the middle of next week. This regime change will feature increasing precipitation chances across much of the Intermountain West, Great Plains, and eastern U.S., but dry conditions are expected to persist across the Southwest into the southern High Plains. This will maintain antecedent dry fuels that will support a fire weather threat amid increasingly wind/dry conditions. ...D3/Friday into D5/Sunday - Southern High Plains... Medium to long-range solutions remain consistent in depicting a low-amplitude upper trough ejecting into the Southwest and southern High Plains during the D3/Friday to D4/Saturday period as long-wave troughing becomes established over the western CONUS. A westerly downslope flow regime is anticipated both days across NM into western TX as a surface low deepens over the High Plains and migrates eastward in tandem with the upper feature. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected both days with critical wind speeds most likely on D4/Saturday as the mid-level jet overspreads southern NM/southwest TX during peak heating. The eastward extent of elevated/critical fire weather conditions remains uncertain and will be conditional on the eastward progression of the dryline by late afternoon. Similarly, rain chances across southwest TX over the next 24 hours may hinder fuel status to some degree, but ongoing drought conditions may allow for sufficient recovery of fine fuels by Saturday afternoon. A second low-amplitude wave will likely pass over the Southwest on D5/Sunday and will promote secondary lee cyclone development across northeast NM into western TX. While spread regarding the intensity and evolution of this secondary low remains somewhat high, ensemble support remains sufficiently high to maintain highlights. Long-range ECMWF deterministic solutions and ECENS guidance hints that additional fire weather concerns are possible by the middle of next week as a robust surface low deepens over the Plains. GFS/GEFS solutions show zonal flow to slight ridging over the CONUS during this period, which limits confidence in the long-range fire weather prospects. ...D3/Friday into D4/Saturday - Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic... Dry conditions are expected to persist across the southern Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic region through the first half of the weekend. Strengthening gradient winds between an offshore surface high and an intensifying low over the Plains may result in periods of dry/windy conditions both D3/Friday and D4/Saturday. While confidence in critical conditions is too low for highlights, fire weather concerns may emerge given dry fuels and active fires across the region. ..Moore.. 03/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 PM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 031200Z Portions of the southern High Plains will continue to see fire weather concerns heading into the late week and weekend period as a series of upper-level disturbances move across the region. Long-range guidance continues to show a transition to a more active/progressive upper-level regime heading into weekend, potentially persisting into the middle of next week. This regime change will feature increasing precipitation chances across much of the Intermountain West, Great Plains, and eastern U.S., but dry conditions are expected to persist across the Southwest into the southern High Plains. This will maintain antecedent dry fuels that will support a fire weather threat amid increasingly wind/dry conditions. ...D3/Friday into D5/Sunday - Southern High Plains... Medium to long-range solutions remain consistent in depicting a low-amplitude upper trough ejecting into the Southwest and southern High Plains during the D3/Friday to D4/Saturday period as long-wave troughing becomes established over the western CONUS. A westerly downslope flow regime is anticipated both days across NM into western TX as a surface low deepens over the High Plains and migrates eastward in tandem with the upper feature. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected both days with critical wind speeds most likely on D4/Saturday as the mid-level jet overspreads southern NM/southwest TX during peak heating. The eastward extent of elevated/critical fire weather conditions remains uncertain and will be conditional on the eastward progression of the dryline by late afternoon. Similarly, rain chances across southwest TX over the next 24 hours may hinder fuel status to some degree, but ongoing drought conditions may allow for sufficient recovery of fine fuels by Saturday afternoon. A second low-amplitude wave will likely pass over the Southwest on D5/Sunday and will promote secondary lee cyclone development across northeast NM into western TX. While spread regarding the intensity and evolution of this secondary low remains somewhat high, ensemble support remains sufficiently high to maintain highlights. Long-range ECMWF deterministic solutions and ECENS guidance hints that additional fire weather concerns are possible by the middle of next week as a robust surface low deepens over the Plains. GFS/GEFS solutions show zonal flow to slight ridging over the CONUS during this period, which limits confidence in the long-range fire weather prospects. ...D3/Friday into D4/Saturday - Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic... Dry conditions are expected to persist across the southern Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic region through the first half of the weekend. Strengthening gradient winds between an offshore surface high and an intensifying low over the Plains may result in periods of dry/windy conditions both D3/Friday and D4/Saturday. While confidence in critical conditions is too low for highlights, fire weather concerns may emerge given dry fuels and active fires across the region. ..Moore.. 03/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 PM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 031200Z Portions of the southern High Plains will continue to see fire weather concerns heading into the late week and weekend period as a series of upper-level disturbances move across the region. Long-range guidance continues to show a transition to a more active/progressive upper-level regime heading into weekend, potentially persisting into the middle of next week. This regime change will feature increasing precipitation chances across much of the Intermountain West, Great Plains, and eastern U.S., but dry conditions are expected to persist across the Southwest into the southern High Plains. This will maintain antecedent dry fuels that will support a fire weather threat amid increasingly wind/dry conditions. ...D3/Friday into D5/Sunday - Southern High Plains... Medium to long-range solutions remain consistent in depicting a low-amplitude upper trough ejecting into the Southwest and southern High Plains during the D3/Friday to D4/Saturday period as long-wave troughing becomes established over the western CONUS. A westerly downslope flow regime is anticipated both days across NM into western TX as a surface low deepens over the High Plains and migrates eastward in tandem with the upper feature. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected both days with critical wind speeds most likely on D4/Saturday as the mid-level jet overspreads southern NM/southwest TX during peak heating. The eastward extent of elevated/critical fire weather conditions remains uncertain and will be conditional on the eastward progression of the dryline by late afternoon. Similarly, rain chances across southwest TX over the next 24 hours may hinder fuel status to some degree, but ongoing drought conditions may allow for sufficient recovery of fine fuels by Saturday afternoon. A second low-amplitude wave will likely pass over the Southwest on D5/Sunday and will promote secondary lee cyclone development across northeast NM into western TX. While spread regarding the intensity and evolution of this secondary low remains somewhat high, ensemble support remains sufficiently high to maintain highlights. Long-range ECMWF deterministic solutions and ECENS guidance hints that additional fire weather concerns are possible by the middle of next week as a robust surface low deepens over the Plains. GFS/GEFS solutions show zonal flow to slight ridging over the CONUS during this period, which limits confidence in the long-range fire weather prospects. ...D3/Friday into D4/Saturday - Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic... Dry conditions are expected to persist across the southern Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic region through the first half of the weekend. Strengthening gradient winds between an offshore surface high and an intensifying low over the Plains may result in periods of dry/windy conditions both D3/Friday and D4/Saturday. While confidence in critical conditions is too low for highlights, fire weather concerns may emerge given dry fuels and active fires across the region. ..Moore.. 03/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 PM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 031200Z Portions of the southern High Plains will continue to see fire weather concerns heading into the late week and weekend period as a series of upper-level disturbances move across the region. Long-range guidance continues to show a transition to a more active/progressive upper-level regime heading into weekend, potentially persisting into the middle of next week. This regime change will feature increasing precipitation chances across much of the Intermountain West, Great Plains, and eastern U.S., but dry conditions are expected to persist across the Southwest into the southern High Plains. This will maintain antecedent dry fuels that will support a fire weather threat amid increasingly wind/dry conditions. ...D3/Friday into D5/Sunday - Southern High Plains... Medium to long-range solutions remain consistent in depicting a low-amplitude upper trough ejecting into the Southwest and southern High Plains during the D3/Friday to D4/Saturday period as long-wave troughing becomes established over the western CONUS. A westerly downslope flow regime is anticipated both days across NM into western TX as a surface low deepens over the High Plains and migrates eastward in tandem with the upper feature. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected both days with critical wind speeds most likely on D4/Saturday as the mid-level jet overspreads southern NM/southwest TX during peak heating. The eastward extent of elevated/critical fire weather conditions remains uncertain and will be conditional on the eastward progression of the dryline by late afternoon. Similarly, rain chances across southwest TX over the next 24 hours may hinder fuel status to some degree, but ongoing drought conditions may allow for sufficient recovery of fine fuels by Saturday afternoon. A second low-amplitude wave will likely pass over the Southwest on D5/Sunday and will promote secondary lee cyclone development across northeast NM into western TX. While spread regarding the intensity and evolution of this secondary low remains somewhat high, ensemble support remains sufficiently high to maintain highlights. Long-range ECMWF deterministic solutions and ECENS guidance hints that additional fire weather concerns are possible by the middle of next week as a robust surface low deepens over the Plains. GFS/GEFS solutions show zonal flow to slight ridging over the CONUS during this period, which limits confidence in the long-range fire weather prospects. ...D3/Friday into D4/Saturday - Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic... Dry conditions are expected to persist across the southern Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic region through the first half of the weekend. Strengthening gradient winds between an offshore surface high and an intensifying low over the Plains may result in periods of dry/windy conditions both D3/Friday and D4/Saturday. While confidence in critical conditions is too low for highlights, fire weather concerns may emerge given dry fuels and active fires across the region. ..Moore.. 03/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 PM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 031200Z Portions of the southern High Plains will continue to see fire weather concerns heading into the late week and weekend period as a series of upper-level disturbances move across the region. Long-range guidance continues to show a transition to a more active/progressive upper-level regime heading into weekend, potentially persisting into the middle of next week. This regime change will feature increasing precipitation chances across much of the Intermountain West, Great Plains, and eastern U.S., but dry conditions are expected to persist across the Southwest into the southern High Plains. This will maintain antecedent dry fuels that will support a fire weather threat amid increasingly wind/dry conditions. ...D3/Friday into D5/Sunday - Southern High Plains... Medium to long-range solutions remain consistent in depicting a low-amplitude upper trough ejecting into the Southwest and southern High Plains during the D3/Friday to D4/Saturday period as long-wave troughing becomes established over the western CONUS. A westerly downslope flow regime is anticipated both days across NM into western TX as a surface low deepens over the High Plains and migrates eastward in tandem with the upper feature. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected both days with critical wind speeds most likely on D4/Saturday as the mid-level jet overspreads southern NM/southwest TX during peak heating. The eastward extent of elevated/critical fire weather conditions remains uncertain and will be conditional on the eastward progression of the dryline by late afternoon. Similarly, rain chances across southwest TX over the next 24 hours may hinder fuel status to some degree, but ongoing drought conditions may allow for sufficient recovery of fine fuels by Saturday afternoon. A second low-amplitude wave will likely pass over the Southwest on D5/Sunday and will promote secondary lee cyclone development across northeast NM into western TX. While spread regarding the intensity and evolution of this secondary low remains somewhat high, ensemble support remains sufficiently high to maintain highlights. Long-range ECMWF deterministic solutions and ECENS guidance hints that additional fire weather concerns are possible by the middle of next week as a robust surface low deepens over the Plains. GFS/GEFS solutions show zonal flow to slight ridging over the CONUS during this period, which limits confidence in the long-range fire weather prospects. ...D3/Friday into D4/Saturday - Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic... Dry conditions are expected to persist across the southern Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic region through the first half of the weekend. Strengthening gradient winds between an offshore surface high and an intensifying low over the Plains may result in periods of dry/windy conditions both D3/Friday and D4/Saturday. While confidence in critical conditions is too low for highlights, fire weather concerns may emerge given dry fuels and active fires across the region. ..Moore.. 03/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 PM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 031200Z Portions of the southern High Plains will continue to see fire weather concerns heading into the late week and weekend period as a series of upper-level disturbances move across the region. Long-range guidance continues to show a transition to a more active/progressive upper-level regime heading into weekend, potentially persisting into the middle of next week. This regime change will feature increasing precipitation chances across much of the Intermountain West, Great Plains, and eastern U.S., but dry conditions are expected to persist across the Southwest into the southern High Plains. This will maintain antecedent dry fuels that will support a fire weather threat amid increasingly wind/dry conditions. ...D3/Friday into D5/Sunday - Southern High Plains... Medium to long-range solutions remain consistent in depicting a low-amplitude upper trough ejecting into the Southwest and southern High Plains during the D3/Friday to D4/Saturday period as long-wave troughing becomes established over the western CONUS. A westerly downslope flow regime is anticipated both days across NM into western TX as a surface low deepens over the High Plains and migrates eastward in tandem with the upper feature. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected both days with critical wind speeds most likely on D4/Saturday as the mid-level jet overspreads southern NM/southwest TX during peak heating. The eastward extent of elevated/critical fire weather conditions remains uncertain and will be conditional on the eastward progression of the dryline by late afternoon. Similarly, rain chances across southwest TX over the next 24 hours may hinder fuel status to some degree, but ongoing drought conditions may allow for sufficient recovery of fine fuels by Saturday afternoon. A second low-amplitude wave will likely pass over the Southwest on D5/Sunday and will promote secondary lee cyclone development across northeast NM into western TX. While spread regarding the intensity and evolution of this secondary low remains somewhat high, ensemble support remains sufficiently high to maintain highlights. Long-range ECMWF deterministic solutions and ECENS guidance hints that additional fire weather concerns are possible by the middle of next week as a robust surface low deepens over the Plains. GFS/GEFS solutions show zonal flow to slight ridging over the CONUS during this period, which limits confidence in the long-range fire weather prospects. ...D3/Friday into D4/Saturday - Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic... Dry conditions are expected to persist across the southern Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic region through the first half of the weekend. Strengthening gradient winds between an offshore surface high and an intensifying low over the Plains may result in periods of dry/windy conditions both D3/Friday and D4/Saturday. While confidence in critical conditions is too low for highlights, fire weather concerns may emerge given dry fuels and active fires across the region. ..Moore.. 03/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 PM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 031200Z Portions of the southern High Plains will continue to see fire weather concerns heading into the late week and weekend period as a series of upper-level disturbances move across the region. Long-range guidance continues to show a transition to a more active/progressive upper-level regime heading into weekend, potentially persisting into the middle of next week. This regime change will feature increasing precipitation chances across much of the Intermountain West, Great Plains, and eastern U.S., but dry conditions are expected to persist across the Southwest into the southern High Plains. This will maintain antecedent dry fuels that will support a fire weather threat amid increasingly wind/dry conditions. ...D3/Friday into D5/Sunday - Southern High Plains... Medium to long-range solutions remain consistent in depicting a low-amplitude upper trough ejecting into the Southwest and southern High Plains during the D3/Friday to D4/Saturday period as long-wave troughing becomes established over the western CONUS. A westerly downslope flow regime is anticipated both days across NM into western TX as a surface low deepens over the High Plains and migrates eastward in tandem with the upper feature. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected both days with critical wind speeds most likely on D4/Saturday as the mid-level jet overspreads southern NM/southwest TX during peak heating. The eastward extent of elevated/critical fire weather conditions remains uncertain and will be conditional on the eastward progression of the dryline by late afternoon. Similarly, rain chances across southwest TX over the next 24 hours may hinder fuel status to some degree, but ongoing drought conditions may allow for sufficient recovery of fine fuels by Saturday afternoon. A second low-amplitude wave will likely pass over the Southwest on D5/Sunday and will promote secondary lee cyclone development across northeast NM into western TX. While spread regarding the intensity and evolution of this secondary low remains somewhat high, ensemble support remains sufficiently high to maintain highlights. Long-range ECMWF deterministic solutions and ECENS guidance hints that additional fire weather concerns are possible by the middle of next week as a robust surface low deepens over the Plains. GFS/GEFS solutions show zonal flow to slight ridging over the CONUS during this period, which limits confidence in the long-range fire weather prospects. ...D3/Friday into D4/Saturday - Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic... Dry conditions are expected to persist across the southern Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic region through the first half of the weekend. Strengthening gradient winds between an offshore surface high and an intensifying low over the Plains may result in periods of dry/windy conditions both D3/Friday and D4/Saturday. While confidence in critical conditions is too low for highlights, fire weather concerns may emerge given dry fuels and active fires across the region. ..Moore.. 03/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 PM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 031200Z Portions of the southern High Plains will continue to see fire weather concerns heading into the late week and weekend period as a series of upper-level disturbances move across the region. Long-range guidance continues to show a transition to a more active/progressive upper-level regime heading into weekend, potentially persisting into the middle of next week. This regime change will feature increasing precipitation chances across much of the Intermountain West, Great Plains, and eastern U.S., but dry conditions are expected to persist across the Southwest into the southern High Plains. This will maintain antecedent dry fuels that will support a fire weather threat amid increasingly wind/dry conditions. ...D3/Friday into D5/Sunday - Southern High Plains... Medium to long-range solutions remain consistent in depicting a low-amplitude upper trough ejecting into the Southwest and southern High Plains during the D3/Friday to D4/Saturday period as long-wave troughing becomes established over the western CONUS. A westerly downslope flow regime is anticipated both days across NM into western TX as a surface low deepens over the High Plains and migrates eastward in tandem with the upper feature. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected both days with critical wind speeds most likely on D4/Saturday as the mid-level jet overspreads southern NM/southwest TX during peak heating. The eastward extent of elevated/critical fire weather conditions remains uncertain and will be conditional on the eastward progression of the dryline by late afternoon. Similarly, rain chances across southwest TX over the next 24 hours may hinder fuel status to some degree, but ongoing drought conditions may allow for sufficient recovery of fine fuels by Saturday afternoon. A second low-amplitude wave will likely pass over the Southwest on D5/Sunday and will promote secondary lee cyclone development across northeast NM into western TX. While spread regarding the intensity and evolution of this secondary low remains somewhat high, ensemble support remains sufficiently high to maintain highlights. Long-range ECMWF deterministic solutions and ECENS guidance hints that additional fire weather concerns are possible by the middle of next week as a robust surface low deepens over the Plains. GFS/GEFS solutions show zonal flow to slight ridging over the CONUS during this period, which limits confidence in the long-range fire weather prospects. ...D3/Friday into D4/Saturday - Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic... Dry conditions are expected to persist across the southern Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic region through the first half of the weekend. Strengthening gradient winds between an offshore surface high and an intensifying low over the Plains may result in periods of dry/windy conditions both D3/Friday and D4/Saturday. While confidence in critical conditions is too low for highlights, fire weather concerns may emerge given dry fuels and active fires across the region. ..Moore.. 03/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 PM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 031200Z Portions of the southern High Plains will continue to see fire weather concerns heading into the late week and weekend period as a series of upper-level disturbances move across the region. Long-range guidance continues to show a transition to a more active/progressive upper-level regime heading into weekend, potentially persisting into the middle of next week. This regime change will feature increasing precipitation chances across much of the Intermountain West, Great Plains, and eastern U.S., but dry conditions are expected to persist across the Southwest into the southern High Plains. This will maintain antecedent dry fuels that will support a fire weather threat amid increasingly wind/dry conditions. ...D3/Friday into D5/Sunday - Southern High Plains... Medium to long-range solutions remain consistent in depicting a low-amplitude upper trough ejecting into the Southwest and southern High Plains during the D3/Friday to D4/Saturday period as long-wave troughing becomes established over the western CONUS. A westerly downslope flow regime is anticipated both days across NM into western TX as a surface low deepens over the High Plains and migrates eastward in tandem with the upper feature. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected both days with critical wind speeds most likely on D4/Saturday as the mid-level jet overspreads southern NM/southwest TX during peak heating. The eastward extent of elevated/critical fire weather conditions remains uncertain and will be conditional on the eastward progression of the dryline by late afternoon. Similarly, rain chances across southwest TX over the next 24 hours may hinder fuel status to some degree, but ongoing drought conditions may allow for sufficient recovery of fine fuels by Saturday afternoon. A second low-amplitude wave will likely pass over the Southwest on D5/Sunday and will promote secondary lee cyclone development across northeast NM into western TX. While spread regarding the intensity and evolution of this secondary low remains somewhat high, ensemble support remains sufficiently high to maintain highlights. Long-range ECMWF deterministic solutions and ECENS guidance hints that additional fire weather concerns are possible by the middle of next week as a robust surface low deepens over the Plains. GFS/GEFS solutions show zonal flow to slight ridging over the CONUS during this period, which limits confidence in the long-range fire weather prospects. ...D3/Friday into D4/Saturday - Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic... Dry conditions are expected to persist across the southern Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic region through the first half of the weekend. Strengthening gradient winds between an offshore surface high and an intensifying low over the Plains may result in periods of dry/windy conditions both D3/Friday and D4/Saturday. While confidence in critical conditions is too low for highlights, fire weather concerns may emerge given dry fuels and active fires across the region. ..Moore.. 03/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF WASHINGTON AND OREGON... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the Pacific Northwest this afternoon and evening, with supercells possible west of the Cascades across Oregon into Washington. These storms may produce large hail, perhaps a tornado or two, and severe wind gusts. ...20z Update... Only minor adjustments were needed to removed thunder across southern OK/northern TX with this update. The Slight risk across the Northwest and Marginal Risk in south Texas were unchanged. Temperatures across the Portland Metro into the Columbia Gorge have warmed into the mid 60s to 70s under mostly sunny skies. Surface objective analysis and observed 18z soundings from MFR and OTX continue to indicate MLCIN in place across much of the region from the Cascades/Colombia Gorge westward. The surface front and main upper-level forcing remain offshore and are expected to move eastward across the region by the late afternoon/early evening. Forecast soundings continue to indicate weakening of MLCIN along with steepening low to mid-level lapse rates as cooling aloft with the trough modifies profiles. This should allow for thunderstorm development through the afternoon/evening, with potential for supercells capable of large hail, damaging wind, and possibly a tornado or two. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Smith.. 03/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025/ ...Pacific Northwest... Satellite imagery this morning shows an upper low approaching the coast with mostly sunny skies over much of the region. A 100 kt 500-mb speed max will rotate through the base of the trough and overspread coastal OR/WA by mid evening as the upper low shifts east. An associated cold front should arc from off the Washington Coast to southward along the Oregon Coast by evening. Cold-air advection in the mid levels and diurnal heating will contribute to steepening lapse rates, and the development of weak to locally moderate buoyancy (250-1500 J/kg SBCAPE) by mid-late afternoon. Strengthening large-scale forcing for ascent and negligible CINH will favor isolated thunderstorms developing by mid-late afternoon and increasing in coverage through the early evening. Forecast hodographs indicate supercells are likely with the stronger, more persistent updrafts. Large hail (1-2 inches in diameter) will be possible. The elongated and perhaps locally augmented hodograph in the vicinity of terrain favored areas (i.e., near the Columbia River with a modest easterly component) may enable a short-duration tornado risk. Severe gusts are also possible with the stronger cores and outflow surges as convection matures during the evening and gradually diminishing late. ...Texas Lower Rio Grande River Valley... A weak disturbance will approach the Rio Grande through mid afternoon with a cirrus shield expected to persist through peak heating. A moist boundary layer sampled by morning area raobs and some filtered heating will promote widely scattered to scattered storms developing this afternoon. Relatively weaker flow in the low to mid levels will limit overall storm organization, but transient supercell/multicells are possible. The stronger storms may be capable of a localized hail/wind threat. ...Southwest IA... A strengthening warm-air advection regime overnight from KS into MO/IA will likely lead to the development of widely scattered showers/thunderstorms in the vicinity of a warm front. Forecast soundings show elevated instability (1000 J/kg MUCAPE) developing as the profile moistens near 850 mb. A stronger storm capable of small to marginally severe hail cannot be ruled out, but the threat appears too limited to introduce low-severe probabilities. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF WASHINGTON AND OREGON... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the Pacific Northwest this afternoon and evening, with supercells possible west of the Cascades across Oregon into Washington. These storms may produce large hail, perhaps a tornado or two, and severe wind gusts. ...20z Update... Only minor adjustments were needed to removed thunder across southern OK/northern TX with this update. The Slight risk across the Northwest and Marginal Risk in south Texas were unchanged. Temperatures across the Portland Metro into the Columbia Gorge have warmed into the mid 60s to 70s under mostly sunny skies. Surface objective analysis and observed 18z soundings from MFR and OTX continue to indicate MLCIN in place across much of the region from the Cascades/Colombia Gorge westward. The surface front and main upper-level forcing remain offshore and are expected to move eastward across the region by the late afternoon/early evening. Forecast soundings continue to indicate weakening of MLCIN along with steepening low to mid-level lapse rates as cooling aloft with the trough modifies profiles. This should allow for thunderstorm development through the afternoon/evening, with potential for supercells capable of large hail, damaging wind, and possibly a tornado or two. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Smith.. 03/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025/ ...Pacific Northwest... Satellite imagery this morning shows an upper low approaching the coast with mostly sunny skies over much of the region. A 100 kt 500-mb speed max will rotate through the base of the trough and overspread coastal OR/WA by mid evening as the upper low shifts east. An associated cold front should arc from off the Washington Coast to southward along the Oregon Coast by evening. Cold-air advection in the mid levels and diurnal heating will contribute to steepening lapse rates, and the development of weak to locally moderate buoyancy (250-1500 J/kg SBCAPE) by mid-late afternoon. Strengthening large-scale forcing for ascent and negligible CINH will favor isolated thunderstorms developing by mid-late afternoon and increasing in coverage through the early evening. Forecast hodographs indicate supercells are likely with the stronger, more persistent updrafts. Large hail (1-2 inches in diameter) will be possible. The elongated and perhaps locally augmented hodograph in the vicinity of terrain favored areas (i.e., near the Columbia River with a modest easterly component) may enable a short-duration tornado risk. Severe gusts are also possible with the stronger cores and outflow surges as convection matures during the evening and gradually diminishing late. ...Texas Lower Rio Grande River Valley... A weak disturbance will approach the Rio Grande through mid afternoon with a cirrus shield expected to persist through peak heating. A moist boundary layer sampled by morning area raobs and some filtered heating will promote widely scattered to scattered storms developing this afternoon. Relatively weaker flow in the low to mid levels will limit overall storm organization, but transient supercell/multicells are possible. The stronger storms may be capable of a localized hail/wind threat. ...Southwest IA... A strengthening warm-air advection regime overnight from KS into MO/IA will likely lead to the development of widely scattered showers/thunderstorms in the vicinity of a warm front. Forecast soundings show elevated instability (1000 J/kg MUCAPE) developing as the profile moistens near 850 mb. A stronger storm capable of small to marginally severe hail cannot be ruled out, but the threat appears too limited to introduce low-severe probabilities. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF WASHINGTON AND OREGON... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the Pacific Northwest this afternoon and evening, with supercells possible west of the Cascades across Oregon into Washington. These storms may produce large hail, perhaps a tornado or two, and severe wind gusts. ...20z Update... Only minor adjustments were needed to removed thunder across southern OK/northern TX with this update. The Slight risk across the Northwest and Marginal Risk in south Texas were unchanged. Temperatures across the Portland Metro into the Columbia Gorge have warmed into the mid 60s to 70s under mostly sunny skies. Surface objective analysis and observed 18z soundings from MFR and OTX continue to indicate MLCIN in place across much of the region from the Cascades/Colombia Gorge westward. The surface front and main upper-level forcing remain offshore and are expected to move eastward across the region by the late afternoon/early evening. Forecast soundings continue to indicate weakening of MLCIN along with steepening low to mid-level lapse rates as cooling aloft with the trough modifies profiles. This should allow for thunderstorm development through the afternoon/evening, with potential for supercells capable of large hail, damaging wind, and possibly a tornado or two. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Smith.. 03/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025/ ...Pacific Northwest... Satellite imagery this morning shows an upper low approaching the coast with mostly sunny skies over much of the region. A 100 kt 500-mb speed max will rotate through the base of the trough and overspread coastal OR/WA by mid evening as the upper low shifts east. An associated cold front should arc from off the Washington Coast to southward along the Oregon Coast by evening. Cold-air advection in the mid levels and diurnal heating will contribute to steepening lapse rates, and the development of weak to locally moderate buoyancy (250-1500 J/kg SBCAPE) by mid-late afternoon. Strengthening large-scale forcing for ascent and negligible CINH will favor isolated thunderstorms developing by mid-late afternoon and increasing in coverage through the early evening. Forecast hodographs indicate supercells are likely with the stronger, more persistent updrafts. Large hail (1-2 inches in diameter) will be possible. The elongated and perhaps locally augmented hodograph in the vicinity of terrain favored areas (i.e., near the Columbia River with a modest easterly component) may enable a short-duration tornado risk. Severe gusts are also possible with the stronger cores and outflow surges as convection matures during the evening and gradually diminishing late. ...Texas Lower Rio Grande River Valley... A weak disturbance will approach the Rio Grande through mid afternoon with a cirrus shield expected to persist through peak heating. A moist boundary layer sampled by morning area raobs and some filtered heating will promote widely scattered to scattered storms developing this afternoon. Relatively weaker flow in the low to mid levels will limit overall storm organization, but transient supercell/multicells are possible. The stronger storms may be capable of a localized hail/wind threat. ...Southwest IA... A strengthening warm-air advection regime overnight from KS into MO/IA will likely lead to the development of widely scattered showers/thunderstorms in the vicinity of a warm front. Forecast soundings show elevated instability (1000 J/kg MUCAPE) developing as the profile moistens near 850 mb. A stronger storm capable of small to marginally severe hail cannot be ruled out, but the threat appears too limited to introduce low-severe probabilities. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF WASHINGTON AND OREGON... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the Pacific Northwest this afternoon and evening, with supercells possible west of the Cascades across Oregon into Washington. These storms may produce large hail, perhaps a tornado or two, and severe wind gusts. ...20z Update... Only minor adjustments were needed to removed thunder across southern OK/northern TX with this update. The Slight risk across the Northwest and Marginal Risk in south Texas were unchanged. Temperatures across the Portland Metro into the Columbia Gorge have warmed into the mid 60s to 70s under mostly sunny skies. Surface objective analysis and observed 18z soundings from MFR and OTX continue to indicate MLCIN in place across much of the region from the Cascades/Colombia Gorge westward. The surface front and main upper-level forcing remain offshore and are expected to move eastward across the region by the late afternoon/early evening. Forecast soundings continue to indicate weakening of MLCIN along with steepening low to mid-level lapse rates as cooling aloft with the trough modifies profiles. This should allow for thunderstorm development through the afternoon/evening, with potential for supercells capable of large hail, damaging wind, and possibly a tornado or two. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Smith.. 03/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025/ ...Pacific Northwest... Satellite imagery this morning shows an upper low approaching the coast with mostly sunny skies over much of the region. A 100 kt 500-mb speed max will rotate through the base of the trough and overspread coastal OR/WA by mid evening as the upper low shifts east. An associated cold front should arc from off the Washington Coast to southward along the Oregon Coast by evening. Cold-air advection in the mid levels and diurnal heating will contribute to steepening lapse rates, and the development of weak to locally moderate buoyancy (250-1500 J/kg SBCAPE) by mid-late afternoon. Strengthening large-scale forcing for ascent and negligible CINH will favor isolated thunderstorms developing by mid-late afternoon and increasing in coverage through the early evening. Forecast hodographs indicate supercells are likely with the stronger, more persistent updrafts. Large hail (1-2 inches in diameter) will be possible. The elongated and perhaps locally augmented hodograph in the vicinity of terrain favored areas (i.e., near the Columbia River with a modest easterly component) may enable a short-duration tornado risk. Severe gusts are also possible with the stronger cores and outflow surges as convection matures during the evening and gradually diminishing late. ...Texas Lower Rio Grande River Valley... A weak disturbance will approach the Rio Grande through mid afternoon with a cirrus shield expected to persist through peak heating. A moist boundary layer sampled by morning area raobs and some filtered heating will promote widely scattered to scattered storms developing this afternoon. Relatively weaker flow in the low to mid levels will limit overall storm organization, but transient supercell/multicells are possible. The stronger storms may be capable of a localized hail/wind threat. ...Southwest IA... A strengthening warm-air advection regime overnight from KS into MO/IA will likely lead to the development of widely scattered showers/thunderstorms in the vicinity of a warm front. Forecast soundings show elevated instability (1000 J/kg MUCAPE) developing as the profile moistens near 850 mb. A stronger storm capable of small to marginally severe hail cannot be ruled out, but the threat appears too limited to introduce low-severe probabilities. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF WASHINGTON AND OREGON... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the Pacific Northwest this afternoon and evening, with supercells possible west of the Cascades across Oregon into Washington. These storms may produce large hail, perhaps a tornado or two, and severe wind gusts. ...20z Update... Only minor adjustments were needed to removed thunder across southern OK/northern TX with this update. The Slight risk across the Northwest and Marginal Risk in south Texas were unchanged. Temperatures across the Portland Metro into the Columbia Gorge have warmed into the mid 60s to 70s under mostly sunny skies. Surface objective analysis and observed 18z soundings from MFR and OTX continue to indicate MLCIN in place across much of the region from the Cascades/Colombia Gorge westward. The surface front and main upper-level forcing remain offshore and are expected to move eastward across the region by the late afternoon/early evening. Forecast soundings continue to indicate weakening of MLCIN along with steepening low to mid-level lapse rates as cooling aloft with the trough modifies profiles. This should allow for thunderstorm development through the afternoon/evening, with potential for supercells capable of large hail, damaging wind, and possibly a tornado or two. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Smith.. 03/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025/ ...Pacific Northwest... Satellite imagery this morning shows an upper low approaching the coast with mostly sunny skies over much of the region. A 100 kt 500-mb speed max will rotate through the base of the trough and overspread coastal OR/WA by mid evening as the upper low shifts east. An associated cold front should arc from off the Washington Coast to southward along the Oregon Coast by evening. Cold-air advection in the mid levels and diurnal heating will contribute to steepening lapse rates, and the development of weak to locally moderate buoyancy (250-1500 J/kg SBCAPE) by mid-late afternoon. Strengthening large-scale forcing for ascent and negligible CINH will favor isolated thunderstorms developing by mid-late afternoon and increasing in coverage through the early evening. Forecast hodographs indicate supercells are likely with the stronger, more persistent updrafts. Large hail (1-2 inches in diameter) will be possible. The elongated and perhaps locally augmented hodograph in the vicinity of terrain favored areas (i.e., near the Columbia River with a modest easterly component) may enable a short-duration tornado risk. Severe gusts are also possible with the stronger cores and outflow surges as convection matures during the evening and gradually diminishing late. ...Texas Lower Rio Grande River Valley... A weak disturbance will approach the Rio Grande through mid afternoon with a cirrus shield expected to persist through peak heating. A moist boundary layer sampled by morning area raobs and some filtered heating will promote widely scattered to scattered storms developing this afternoon. Relatively weaker flow in the low to mid levels will limit overall storm organization, but transient supercell/multicells are possible. The stronger storms may be capable of a localized hail/wind threat. ...Southwest IA... A strengthening warm-air advection regime overnight from KS into MO/IA will likely lead to the development of widely scattered showers/thunderstorms in the vicinity of a warm front. Forecast soundings show elevated instability (1000 J/kg MUCAPE) developing as the profile moistens near 850 mb. A stronger storm capable of small to marginally severe hail cannot be ruled out, but the threat appears too limited to introduce low-severe probabilities. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF WASHINGTON AND OREGON... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the Pacific Northwest this afternoon and evening, with supercells possible west of the Cascades across Oregon into Washington. These storms may produce large hail, perhaps a tornado or two, and severe wind gusts. ...20z Update... Only minor adjustments were needed to removed thunder across southern OK/northern TX with this update. The Slight risk across the Northwest and Marginal Risk in south Texas were unchanged. Temperatures across the Portland Metro into the Columbia Gorge have warmed into the mid 60s to 70s under mostly sunny skies. Surface objective analysis and observed 18z soundings from MFR and OTX continue to indicate MLCIN in place across much of the region from the Cascades/Colombia Gorge westward. The surface front and main upper-level forcing remain offshore and are expected to move eastward across the region by the late afternoon/early evening. Forecast soundings continue to indicate weakening of MLCIN along with steepening low to mid-level lapse rates as cooling aloft with the trough modifies profiles. This should allow for thunderstorm development through the afternoon/evening, with potential for supercells capable of large hail, damaging wind, and possibly a tornado or two. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Smith.. 03/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025/ ...Pacific Northwest... Satellite imagery this morning shows an upper low approaching the coast with mostly sunny skies over much of the region. A 100 kt 500-mb speed max will rotate through the base of the trough and overspread coastal OR/WA by mid evening as the upper low shifts east. An associated cold front should arc from off the Washington Coast to southward along the Oregon Coast by evening. Cold-air advection in the mid levels and diurnal heating will contribute to steepening lapse rates, and the development of weak to locally moderate buoyancy (250-1500 J/kg SBCAPE) by mid-late afternoon. Strengthening large-scale forcing for ascent and negligible CINH will favor isolated thunderstorms developing by mid-late afternoon and increasing in coverage through the early evening. Forecast hodographs indicate supercells are likely with the stronger, more persistent updrafts. Large hail (1-2 inches in diameter) will be possible. The elongated and perhaps locally augmented hodograph in the vicinity of terrain favored areas (i.e., near the Columbia River with a modest easterly component) may enable a short-duration tornado risk. Severe gusts are also possible with the stronger cores and outflow surges as convection matures during the evening and gradually diminishing late. ...Texas Lower Rio Grande River Valley... A weak disturbance will approach the Rio Grande through mid afternoon with a cirrus shield expected to persist through peak heating. A moist boundary layer sampled by morning area raobs and some filtered heating will promote widely scattered to scattered storms developing this afternoon. Relatively weaker flow in the low to mid levels will limit overall storm organization, but transient supercell/multicells are possible. The stronger storms may be capable of a localized hail/wind threat. ...Southwest IA... A strengthening warm-air advection regime overnight from KS into MO/IA will likely lead to the development of widely scattered showers/thunderstorms in the vicinity of a warm front. Forecast soundings show elevated instability (1000 J/kg MUCAPE) developing as the profile moistens near 850 mb. A stronger storm capable of small to marginally severe hail cannot be ruled out, but the threat appears too limited to introduce low-severe probabilities. Read more