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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF WASHINGTON/OREGON... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the Pacific Northwest this afternoon and evening, with supercells possible west of the Cascades across Oregon into Washington. These storms may produce large hail, perhaps a tornado or two, and strong wind gusts. ...Pacific Northwest... Satellite imagery this morning shows an upper low approaching the coast with mostly sunny skies over much of the region. A 100 kt 500-mb speed max will rotate through the base of the trough and overspread coastal OR/WA by mid evening as the upper low shifts east. An associated cold front should arc from off the Washington Coast to southward along the Oregon Coast by evening. Cold-air advection in the mid levels and diurnal heating will contribute to steepening lapse rates, and the development of weak to locally moderate buoyancy (250-1500 J/kg SBCAPE) by mid-late afternoon. Strengthening large-scale forcing for ascent and negligible CINH will favor isolated thunderstorms developing by mid-late afternoon and increasing in coverage through the early evening. Forecast hodographs indicate supercells are likely with the stronger, more persistent updrafts. Large hail (1-2 inches in diameter) will be possible. The elongated and perhaps locally augmented hodograph in the vicinity of terrain favored areas (i.e., near the Columbia River with a modest easterly component) may enable a short-duration tornado risk. Severe gusts are also possible with the stronger cores and outflow surges as convection matures during the evening and gradually diminishing late. ...Texas Lower Rio Grande River Valley... A weak disturbance will approach the Rio Grande through mid afternoon with a cirrus shield expected to persist through peak heating. A moist boundary layer sampled by morning area raobs and some filtered heating will promote widely scattered to scattered storms developing this afternoon. Relatively weaker flow in the low to mid levels will limit overall storm organization, but transient supercell/multicells are possible. The stronger storms may be capable of a localized hail/wind threat. ...Southwest IA... A strengthening warm-air advection regime overnight from KS into MO/IA will likely lead to the development of widely scattered showers/thunderstorms in the vicinity of a warm front. Forecast soundings show elevated instability (1000 J/kg MUCAPE) developing as the profile moistens near 850 mb. A stronger storm capable of small to marginally severe hail cannot be ruled out, but the threat appears too limited to introduce low-severe probabilities. ..Smith/Mosier.. 03/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF WASHINGTON/OREGON... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the Pacific Northwest this afternoon and evening, with supercells possible west of the Cascades across Oregon into Washington. These storms may produce large hail, perhaps a tornado or two, and strong wind gusts. ...Pacific Northwest... Satellite imagery this morning shows an upper low approaching the coast with mostly sunny skies over much of the region. A 100 kt 500-mb speed max will rotate through the base of the trough and overspread coastal OR/WA by mid evening as the upper low shifts east. An associated cold front should arc from off the Washington Coast to southward along the Oregon Coast by evening. Cold-air advection in the mid levels and diurnal heating will contribute to steepening lapse rates, and the development of weak to locally moderate buoyancy (250-1500 J/kg SBCAPE) by mid-late afternoon. Strengthening large-scale forcing for ascent and negligible CINH will favor isolated thunderstorms developing by mid-late afternoon and increasing in coverage through the early evening. Forecast hodographs indicate supercells are likely with the stronger, more persistent updrafts. Large hail (1-2 inches in diameter) will be possible. The elongated and perhaps locally augmented hodograph in the vicinity of terrain favored areas (i.e., near the Columbia River with a modest easterly component) may enable a short-duration tornado risk. Severe gusts are also possible with the stronger cores and outflow surges as convection matures during the evening and gradually diminishing late. ...Texas Lower Rio Grande River Valley... A weak disturbance will approach the Rio Grande through mid afternoon with a cirrus shield expected to persist through peak heating. A moist boundary layer sampled by morning area raobs and some filtered heating will promote widely scattered to scattered storms developing this afternoon. Relatively weaker flow in the low to mid levels will limit overall storm organization, but transient supercell/multicells are possible. The stronger storms may be capable of a localized hail/wind threat. ...Southwest IA... A strengthening warm-air advection regime overnight from KS into MO/IA will likely lead to the development of widely scattered showers/thunderstorms in the vicinity of a warm front. Forecast soundings show elevated instability (1000 J/kg MUCAPE) developing as the profile moistens near 850 mb. A stronger storm capable of small to marginally severe hail cannot be ruled out, but the threat appears too limited to introduce low-severe probabilities. ..Smith/Mosier.. 03/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF WASHINGTON/OREGON... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the Pacific Northwest this afternoon and evening, with supercells possible west of the Cascades across Oregon into Washington. These storms may produce large hail, perhaps a tornado or two, and strong wind gusts. ...Pacific Northwest... Satellite imagery this morning shows an upper low approaching the coast with mostly sunny skies over much of the region. A 100 kt 500-mb speed max will rotate through the base of the trough and overspread coastal OR/WA by mid evening as the upper low shifts east. An associated cold front should arc from off the Washington Coast to southward along the Oregon Coast by evening. Cold-air advection in the mid levels and diurnal heating will contribute to steepening lapse rates, and the development of weak to locally moderate buoyancy (250-1500 J/kg SBCAPE) by mid-late afternoon. Strengthening large-scale forcing for ascent and negligible CINH will favor isolated thunderstorms developing by mid-late afternoon and increasing in coverage through the early evening. Forecast hodographs indicate supercells are likely with the stronger, more persistent updrafts. Large hail (1-2 inches in diameter) will be possible. The elongated and perhaps locally augmented hodograph in the vicinity of terrain favored areas (i.e., near the Columbia River with a modest easterly component) may enable a short-duration tornado risk. Severe gusts are also possible with the stronger cores and outflow surges as convection matures during the evening and gradually diminishing late. ...Texas Lower Rio Grande River Valley... A weak disturbance will approach the Rio Grande through mid afternoon with a cirrus shield expected to persist through peak heating. A moist boundary layer sampled by morning area raobs and some filtered heating will promote widely scattered to scattered storms developing this afternoon. Relatively weaker flow in the low to mid levels will limit overall storm organization, but transient supercell/multicells are possible. The stronger storms may be capable of a localized hail/wind threat. ...Southwest IA... A strengthening warm-air advection regime overnight from KS into MO/IA will likely lead to the development of widely scattered showers/thunderstorms in the vicinity of a warm front. Forecast soundings show elevated instability (1000 J/kg MUCAPE) developing as the profile moistens near 850 mb. A stronger storm capable of small to marginally severe hail cannot be ruled out, but the threat appears too limited to introduce low-severe probabilities. ..Smith/Mosier.. 03/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF WASHINGTON/OREGON... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the Pacific Northwest this afternoon and evening, with supercells possible west of the Cascades across Oregon into Washington. These storms may produce large hail, perhaps a tornado or two, and strong wind gusts. ...Pacific Northwest... Satellite imagery this morning shows an upper low approaching the coast with mostly sunny skies over much of the region. A 100 kt 500-mb speed max will rotate through the base of the trough and overspread coastal OR/WA by mid evening as the upper low shifts east. An associated cold front should arc from off the Washington Coast to southward along the Oregon Coast by evening. Cold-air advection in the mid levels and diurnal heating will contribute to steepening lapse rates, and the development of weak to locally moderate buoyancy (250-1500 J/kg SBCAPE) by mid-late afternoon. Strengthening large-scale forcing for ascent and negligible CINH will favor isolated thunderstorms developing by mid-late afternoon and increasing in coverage through the early evening. Forecast hodographs indicate supercells are likely with the stronger, more persistent updrafts. Large hail (1-2 inches in diameter) will be possible. The elongated and perhaps locally augmented hodograph in the vicinity of terrain favored areas (i.e., near the Columbia River with a modest easterly component) may enable a short-duration tornado risk. Severe gusts are also possible with the stronger cores and outflow surges as convection matures during the evening and gradually diminishing late. ...Texas Lower Rio Grande River Valley... A weak disturbance will approach the Rio Grande through mid afternoon with a cirrus shield expected to persist through peak heating. A moist boundary layer sampled by morning area raobs and some filtered heating will promote widely scattered to scattered storms developing this afternoon. Relatively weaker flow in the low to mid levels will limit overall storm organization, but transient supercell/multicells are possible. The stronger storms may be capable of a localized hail/wind threat. ...Southwest IA... A strengthening warm-air advection regime overnight from KS into MO/IA will likely lead to the development of widely scattered showers/thunderstorms in the vicinity of a warm front. Forecast soundings show elevated instability (1000 J/kg MUCAPE) developing as the profile moistens near 850 mb. A stronger storm capable of small to marginally severe hail cannot be ruled out, but the threat appears too limited to introduce low-severe probabilities. ..Smith/Mosier.. 03/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF WASHINGTON/OREGON... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the Pacific Northwest this afternoon and evening, with supercells possible west of the Cascades across Oregon into Washington. These storms may produce large hail, perhaps a tornado or two, and strong wind gusts. ...Pacific Northwest... Satellite imagery this morning shows an upper low approaching the coast with mostly sunny skies over much of the region. A 100 kt 500-mb speed max will rotate through the base of the trough and overspread coastal OR/WA by mid evening as the upper low shifts east. An associated cold front should arc from off the Washington Coast to southward along the Oregon Coast by evening. Cold-air advection in the mid levels and diurnal heating will contribute to steepening lapse rates, and the development of weak to locally moderate buoyancy (250-1500 J/kg SBCAPE) by mid-late afternoon. Strengthening large-scale forcing for ascent and negligible CINH will favor isolated thunderstorms developing by mid-late afternoon and increasing in coverage through the early evening. Forecast hodographs indicate supercells are likely with the stronger, more persistent updrafts. Large hail (1-2 inches in diameter) will be possible. The elongated and perhaps locally augmented hodograph in the vicinity of terrain favored areas (i.e., near the Columbia River with a modest easterly component) may enable a short-duration tornado risk. Severe gusts are also possible with the stronger cores and outflow surges as convection matures during the evening and gradually diminishing late. ...Texas Lower Rio Grande River Valley... A weak disturbance will approach the Rio Grande through mid afternoon with a cirrus shield expected to persist through peak heating. A moist boundary layer sampled by morning area raobs and some filtered heating will promote widely scattered to scattered storms developing this afternoon. Relatively weaker flow in the low to mid levels will limit overall storm organization, but transient supercell/multicells are possible. The stronger storms may be capable of a localized hail/wind threat. ...Southwest IA... A strengthening warm-air advection regime overnight from KS into MO/IA will likely lead to the development of widely scattered showers/thunderstorms in the vicinity of a warm front. Forecast soundings show elevated instability (1000 J/kg MUCAPE) developing as the profile moistens near 850 mb. A stronger storm capable of small to marginally severe hail cannot be ruled out, but the threat appears too limited to introduce low-severe probabilities. ..Smith/Mosier.. 03/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF WASHINGTON/OREGON... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the Pacific Northwest this afternoon and evening, with supercells possible west of the Cascades across Oregon into Washington. These storms may produce large hail, perhaps a tornado or two, and strong wind gusts. ...Pacific Northwest... Satellite imagery this morning shows an upper low approaching the coast with mostly sunny skies over much of the region. A 100 kt 500-mb speed max will rotate through the base of the trough and overspread coastal OR/WA by mid evening as the upper low shifts east. An associated cold front should arc from off the Washington Coast to southward along the Oregon Coast by evening. Cold-air advection in the mid levels and diurnal heating will contribute to steepening lapse rates, and the development of weak to locally moderate buoyancy (250-1500 J/kg SBCAPE) by mid-late afternoon. Strengthening large-scale forcing for ascent and negligible CINH will favor isolated thunderstorms developing by mid-late afternoon and increasing in coverage through the early evening. Forecast hodographs indicate supercells are likely with the stronger, more persistent updrafts. Large hail (1-2 inches in diameter) will be possible. The elongated and perhaps locally augmented hodograph in the vicinity of terrain favored areas (i.e., near the Columbia River with a modest easterly component) may enable a short-duration tornado risk. Severe gusts are also possible with the stronger cores and outflow surges as convection matures during the evening and gradually diminishing late. ...Texas Lower Rio Grande River Valley... A weak disturbance will approach the Rio Grande through mid afternoon with a cirrus shield expected to persist through peak heating. A moist boundary layer sampled by morning area raobs and some filtered heating will promote widely scattered to scattered storms developing this afternoon. Relatively weaker flow in the low to mid levels will limit overall storm organization, but transient supercell/multicells are possible. The stronger storms may be capable of a localized hail/wind threat. ...Southwest IA... A strengthening warm-air advection regime overnight from KS into MO/IA will likely lead to the development of widely scattered showers/thunderstorms in the vicinity of a warm front. Forecast soundings show elevated instability (1000 J/kg MUCAPE) developing as the profile moistens near 850 mb. A stronger storm capable of small to marginally severe hail cannot be ruled out, but the threat appears too limited to introduce low-severe probabilities. ..Smith/Mosier.. 03/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF WASHINGTON/OREGON... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the Pacific Northwest this afternoon and evening, with supercells possible west of the Cascades across Oregon into Washington. These storms may produce large hail, perhaps a tornado or two, and strong wind gusts. ...Pacific Northwest... Satellite imagery this morning shows an upper low approaching the coast with mostly sunny skies over much of the region. A 100 kt 500-mb speed max will rotate through the base of the trough and overspread coastal OR/WA by mid evening as the upper low shifts east. An associated cold front should arc from off the Washington Coast to southward along the Oregon Coast by evening. Cold-air advection in the mid levels and diurnal heating will contribute to steepening lapse rates, and the development of weak to locally moderate buoyancy (250-1500 J/kg SBCAPE) by mid-late afternoon. Strengthening large-scale forcing for ascent and negligible CINH will favor isolated thunderstorms developing by mid-late afternoon and increasing in coverage through the early evening. Forecast hodographs indicate supercells are likely with the stronger, more persistent updrafts. Large hail (1-2 inches in diameter) will be possible. The elongated and perhaps locally augmented hodograph in the vicinity of terrain favored areas (i.e., near the Columbia River with a modest easterly component) may enable a short-duration tornado risk. Severe gusts are also possible with the stronger cores and outflow surges as convection matures during the evening and gradually diminishing late. ...Texas Lower Rio Grande River Valley... A weak disturbance will approach the Rio Grande through mid afternoon with a cirrus shield expected to persist through peak heating. A moist boundary layer sampled by morning area raobs and some filtered heating will promote widely scattered to scattered storms developing this afternoon. Relatively weaker flow in the low to mid levels will limit overall storm organization, but transient supercell/multicells are possible. The stronger storms may be capable of a localized hail/wind threat. ...Southwest IA... A strengthening warm-air advection regime overnight from KS into MO/IA will likely lead to the development of widely scattered showers/thunderstorms in the vicinity of a warm front. Forecast soundings show elevated instability (1000 J/kg MUCAPE) developing as the profile moistens near 850 mb. A stronger storm capable of small to marginally severe hail cannot be ruled out, but the threat appears too limited to introduce low-severe probabilities. ..Smith/Mosier.. 03/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF WASHINGTON/OREGON... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the Pacific Northwest this afternoon and evening, with supercells possible west of the Cascades across Oregon into Washington. These storms may produce large hail, perhaps a tornado or two, and strong wind gusts. ...Pacific Northwest... Satellite imagery this morning shows an upper low approaching the coast with mostly sunny skies over much of the region. A 100 kt 500-mb speed max will rotate through the base of the trough and overspread coastal OR/WA by mid evening as the upper low shifts east. An associated cold front should arc from off the Washington Coast to southward along the Oregon Coast by evening. Cold-air advection in the mid levels and diurnal heating will contribute to steepening lapse rates, and the development of weak to locally moderate buoyancy (250-1500 J/kg SBCAPE) by mid-late afternoon. Strengthening large-scale forcing for ascent and negligible CINH will favor isolated thunderstorms developing by mid-late afternoon and increasing in coverage through the early evening. Forecast hodographs indicate supercells are likely with the stronger, more persistent updrafts. Large hail (1-2 inches in diameter) will be possible. The elongated and perhaps locally augmented hodograph in the vicinity of terrain favored areas (i.e., near the Columbia River with a modest easterly component) may enable a short-duration tornado risk. Severe gusts are also possible with the stronger cores and outflow surges as convection matures during the evening and gradually diminishing late. ...Texas Lower Rio Grande River Valley... A weak disturbance will approach the Rio Grande through mid afternoon with a cirrus shield expected to persist through peak heating. A moist boundary layer sampled by morning area raobs and some filtered heating will promote widely scattered to scattered storms developing this afternoon. Relatively weaker flow in the low to mid levels will limit overall storm organization, but transient supercell/multicells are possible. The stronger storms may be capable of a localized hail/wind threat. ...Southwest IA... A strengthening warm-air advection regime overnight from KS into MO/IA will likely lead to the development of widely scattered showers/thunderstorms in the vicinity of a warm front. Forecast soundings show elevated instability (1000 J/kg MUCAPE) developing as the profile moistens near 850 mb. A stronger storm capable of small to marginally severe hail cannot be ruled out, but the threat appears too limited to introduce low-severe probabilities. ..Smith/Mosier.. 03/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF WASHINGTON/OREGON... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the Pacific Northwest this afternoon and evening, with supercells possible west of the Cascades across Oregon into Washington. These storms may produce large hail, perhaps a tornado or two, and strong wind gusts. ...Pacific Northwest... Satellite imagery this morning shows an upper low approaching the coast with mostly sunny skies over much of the region. A 100 kt 500-mb speed max will rotate through the base of the trough and overspread coastal OR/WA by mid evening as the upper low shifts east. An associated cold front should arc from off the Washington Coast to southward along the Oregon Coast by evening. Cold-air advection in the mid levels and diurnal heating will contribute to steepening lapse rates, and the development of weak to locally moderate buoyancy (250-1500 J/kg SBCAPE) by mid-late afternoon. Strengthening large-scale forcing for ascent and negligible CINH will favor isolated thunderstorms developing by mid-late afternoon and increasing in coverage through the early evening. Forecast hodographs indicate supercells are likely with the stronger, more persistent updrafts. Large hail (1-2 inches in diameter) will be possible. The elongated and perhaps locally augmented hodograph in the vicinity of terrain favored areas (i.e., near the Columbia River with a modest easterly component) may enable a short-duration tornado risk. Severe gusts are also possible with the stronger cores and outflow surges as convection matures during the evening and gradually diminishing late. ...Texas Lower Rio Grande River Valley... A weak disturbance will approach the Rio Grande through mid afternoon with a cirrus shield expected to persist through peak heating. A moist boundary layer sampled by morning area raobs and some filtered heating will promote widely scattered to scattered storms developing this afternoon. Relatively weaker flow in the low to mid levels will limit overall storm organization, but transient supercell/multicells are possible. The stronger storms may be capable of a localized hail/wind threat. ...Southwest IA... A strengthening warm-air advection regime overnight from KS into MO/IA will likely lead to the development of widely scattered showers/thunderstorms in the vicinity of a warm front. Forecast soundings show elevated instability (1000 J/kg MUCAPE) developing as the profile moistens near 850 mb. A stronger storm capable of small to marginally severe hail cannot be ruled out, but the threat appears too limited to introduce low-severe probabilities. ..Smith/Mosier.. 03/26/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1113 AM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z ...Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic... Elevated fire weather conditions are beginning to emerge across the region with winds increasing to 15 mph and RH values falling into the 25-35% range. A recent uptick in fire activity with ongoing fires across northern SC also points to the onset of fire weather conditions. This aligns well with morning guidance, which depicts elevated fire weather conditions spreading as far east as Chesapeake Bay. The Elevated risk area has been expanded to account for this recent trend. ...New Mexico... Large-scale ascent is evident in mid-morning water-vapor imagery across the Southwest ahead of a weak mid-level trough. 12 UTC soundings across AZ/NM sampled steep 8-9 C/km mid-level lapse rates, which should support weak buoyancy (50-100 J/kg MUCAPE) later this afternoon as gradual moisture advection into southwest TX/eastern NM continues. The dry thunderstorm risk area has been shifted eastward to better align with where CAM guidance shows the best potential for convection with minimal rainfall. Dry thunderstorms are also possible further northwest into the Great Basin, but fuel conditions appear sufficiently moist to limit the overall dry-lightning threat. ..Moore.. 03/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0206 AM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging will continue to intensify as it shifts eastward into the central US today and tonight. A weak southern-stream trough will slide under the ridge over parts of the Southwest and southern Plains. A dry cold front will move eastward over the Appalachians beneath a broad upper trough favoring gusty winds and dry conditions over the east. Some fire-weather concerns are likely as isolated dry thunderstorms and dry/breezy conditions overlap with areas of dry fuels. ...Appalachians... Westerly downslope winds are likely across portions of the southern and central Appalachians this afternoon. Warm temperatures and downslope drying will also contribute to low afternoon RH below 25-30% for much of the western Carolinas, northeast GA and western VA. RH dropping to near critical thresholds, with wind speeds approaching 15 mph (with stronger gusts) will favor several hours of elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions given very dry fuels and recent fire activity. ...Southwest... A subtle southern-stream shortwave trough will move underneath the upper ridge into parts of the Southwest. Mid and low-level moisture will gradually move west, reaching parts of NM and west TX. Weak upslope flow and ascent from the trough will support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Dry sub-cloud layers will favor poor precipitation efficiency with weak buoyancy aloft. This could support a few dry thunderstorms with gusty winds. Fuels are highly receptive to fire starts with ERCs well above the 80th percentile over a large area. With little wetting rainfall and the potential for lightning ignitions, an Isolated dry thunder area will be maintained. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1113 AM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z ...Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic... Elevated fire weather conditions are beginning to emerge across the region with winds increasing to 15 mph and RH values falling into the 25-35% range. A recent uptick in fire activity with ongoing fires across northern SC also points to the onset of fire weather conditions. This aligns well with morning guidance, which depicts elevated fire weather conditions spreading as far east as Chesapeake Bay. The Elevated risk area has been expanded to account for this recent trend. ...New Mexico... Large-scale ascent is evident in mid-morning water-vapor imagery across the Southwest ahead of a weak mid-level trough. 12 UTC soundings across AZ/NM sampled steep 8-9 C/km mid-level lapse rates, which should support weak buoyancy (50-100 J/kg MUCAPE) later this afternoon as gradual moisture advection into southwest TX/eastern NM continues. The dry thunderstorm risk area has been shifted eastward to better align with where CAM guidance shows the best potential for convection with minimal rainfall. Dry thunderstorms are also possible further northwest into the Great Basin, but fuel conditions appear sufficiently moist to limit the overall dry-lightning threat. ..Moore.. 03/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0206 AM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging will continue to intensify as it shifts eastward into the central US today and tonight. A weak southern-stream trough will slide under the ridge over parts of the Southwest and southern Plains. A dry cold front will move eastward over the Appalachians beneath a broad upper trough favoring gusty winds and dry conditions over the east. Some fire-weather concerns are likely as isolated dry thunderstorms and dry/breezy conditions overlap with areas of dry fuels. ...Appalachians... Westerly downslope winds are likely across portions of the southern and central Appalachians this afternoon. Warm temperatures and downslope drying will also contribute to low afternoon RH below 25-30% for much of the western Carolinas, northeast GA and western VA. RH dropping to near critical thresholds, with wind speeds approaching 15 mph (with stronger gusts) will favor several hours of elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions given very dry fuels and recent fire activity. ...Southwest... A subtle southern-stream shortwave trough will move underneath the upper ridge into parts of the Southwest. Mid and low-level moisture will gradually move west, reaching parts of NM and west TX. Weak upslope flow and ascent from the trough will support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Dry sub-cloud layers will favor poor precipitation efficiency with weak buoyancy aloft. This could support a few dry thunderstorms with gusty winds. Fuels are highly receptive to fire starts with ERCs well above the 80th percentile over a large area. With little wetting rainfall and the potential for lightning ignitions, an Isolated dry thunder area will be maintained. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1113 AM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z ...Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic... Elevated fire weather conditions are beginning to emerge across the region with winds increasing to 15 mph and RH values falling into the 25-35% range. A recent uptick in fire activity with ongoing fires across northern SC also points to the onset of fire weather conditions. This aligns well with morning guidance, which depicts elevated fire weather conditions spreading as far east as Chesapeake Bay. The Elevated risk area has been expanded to account for this recent trend. ...New Mexico... Large-scale ascent is evident in mid-morning water-vapor imagery across the Southwest ahead of a weak mid-level trough. 12 UTC soundings across AZ/NM sampled steep 8-9 C/km mid-level lapse rates, which should support weak buoyancy (50-100 J/kg MUCAPE) later this afternoon as gradual moisture advection into southwest TX/eastern NM continues. The dry thunderstorm risk area has been shifted eastward to better align with where CAM guidance shows the best potential for convection with minimal rainfall. Dry thunderstorms are also possible further northwest into the Great Basin, but fuel conditions appear sufficiently moist to limit the overall dry-lightning threat. ..Moore.. 03/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0206 AM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging will continue to intensify as it shifts eastward into the central US today and tonight. A weak southern-stream trough will slide under the ridge over parts of the Southwest and southern Plains. A dry cold front will move eastward over the Appalachians beneath a broad upper trough favoring gusty winds and dry conditions over the east. Some fire-weather concerns are likely as isolated dry thunderstorms and dry/breezy conditions overlap with areas of dry fuels. ...Appalachians... Westerly downslope winds are likely across portions of the southern and central Appalachians this afternoon. Warm temperatures and downslope drying will also contribute to low afternoon RH below 25-30% for much of the western Carolinas, northeast GA and western VA. RH dropping to near critical thresholds, with wind speeds approaching 15 mph (with stronger gusts) will favor several hours of elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions given very dry fuels and recent fire activity. ...Southwest... A subtle southern-stream shortwave trough will move underneath the upper ridge into parts of the Southwest. Mid and low-level moisture will gradually move west, reaching parts of NM and west TX. Weak upslope flow and ascent from the trough will support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Dry sub-cloud layers will favor poor precipitation efficiency with weak buoyancy aloft. This could support a few dry thunderstorms with gusty winds. Fuels are highly receptive to fire starts with ERCs well above the 80th percentile over a large area. With little wetting rainfall and the potential for lightning ignitions, an Isolated dry thunder area will be maintained. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1113 AM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z ...Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic... Elevated fire weather conditions are beginning to emerge across the region with winds increasing to 15 mph and RH values falling into the 25-35% range. A recent uptick in fire activity with ongoing fires across northern SC also points to the onset of fire weather conditions. This aligns well with morning guidance, which depicts elevated fire weather conditions spreading as far east as Chesapeake Bay. The Elevated risk area has been expanded to account for this recent trend. ...New Mexico... Large-scale ascent is evident in mid-morning water-vapor imagery across the Southwest ahead of a weak mid-level trough. 12 UTC soundings across AZ/NM sampled steep 8-9 C/km mid-level lapse rates, which should support weak buoyancy (50-100 J/kg MUCAPE) later this afternoon as gradual moisture advection into southwest TX/eastern NM continues. The dry thunderstorm risk area has been shifted eastward to better align with where CAM guidance shows the best potential for convection with minimal rainfall. Dry thunderstorms are also possible further northwest into the Great Basin, but fuel conditions appear sufficiently moist to limit the overall dry-lightning threat. ..Moore.. 03/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0206 AM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging will continue to intensify as it shifts eastward into the central US today and tonight. A weak southern-stream trough will slide under the ridge over parts of the Southwest and southern Plains. A dry cold front will move eastward over the Appalachians beneath a broad upper trough favoring gusty winds and dry conditions over the east. Some fire-weather concerns are likely as isolated dry thunderstorms and dry/breezy conditions overlap with areas of dry fuels. ...Appalachians... Westerly downslope winds are likely across portions of the southern and central Appalachians this afternoon. Warm temperatures and downslope drying will also contribute to low afternoon RH below 25-30% for much of the western Carolinas, northeast GA and western VA. RH dropping to near critical thresholds, with wind speeds approaching 15 mph (with stronger gusts) will favor several hours of elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions given very dry fuels and recent fire activity. ...Southwest... A subtle southern-stream shortwave trough will move underneath the upper ridge into parts of the Southwest. Mid and low-level moisture will gradually move west, reaching parts of NM and west TX. Weak upslope flow and ascent from the trough will support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Dry sub-cloud layers will favor poor precipitation efficiency with weak buoyancy aloft. This could support a few dry thunderstorms with gusty winds. Fuels are highly receptive to fire starts with ERCs well above the 80th percentile over a large area. With little wetting rainfall and the potential for lightning ignitions, an Isolated dry thunder area will be maintained. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1113 AM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z ...Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic... Elevated fire weather conditions are beginning to emerge across the region with winds increasing to 15 mph and RH values falling into the 25-35% range. A recent uptick in fire activity with ongoing fires across northern SC also points to the onset of fire weather conditions. This aligns well with morning guidance, which depicts elevated fire weather conditions spreading as far east as Chesapeake Bay. The Elevated risk area has been expanded to account for this recent trend. ...New Mexico... Large-scale ascent is evident in mid-morning water-vapor imagery across the Southwest ahead of a weak mid-level trough. 12 UTC soundings across AZ/NM sampled steep 8-9 C/km mid-level lapse rates, which should support weak buoyancy (50-100 J/kg MUCAPE) later this afternoon as gradual moisture advection into southwest TX/eastern NM continues. The dry thunderstorm risk area has been shifted eastward to better align with where CAM guidance shows the best potential for convection with minimal rainfall. Dry thunderstorms are also possible further northwest into the Great Basin, but fuel conditions appear sufficiently moist to limit the overall dry-lightning threat. ..Moore.. 03/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0206 AM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging will continue to intensify as it shifts eastward into the central US today and tonight. A weak southern-stream trough will slide under the ridge over parts of the Southwest and southern Plains. A dry cold front will move eastward over the Appalachians beneath a broad upper trough favoring gusty winds and dry conditions over the east. Some fire-weather concerns are likely as isolated dry thunderstorms and dry/breezy conditions overlap with areas of dry fuels. ...Appalachians... Westerly downslope winds are likely across portions of the southern and central Appalachians this afternoon. Warm temperatures and downslope drying will also contribute to low afternoon RH below 25-30% for much of the western Carolinas, northeast GA and western VA. RH dropping to near critical thresholds, with wind speeds approaching 15 mph (with stronger gusts) will favor several hours of elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions given very dry fuels and recent fire activity. ...Southwest... A subtle southern-stream shortwave trough will move underneath the upper ridge into parts of the Southwest. Mid and low-level moisture will gradually move west, reaching parts of NM and west TX. Weak upslope flow and ascent from the trough will support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Dry sub-cloud layers will favor poor precipitation efficiency with weak buoyancy aloft. This could support a few dry thunderstorms with gusty winds. Fuels are highly receptive to fire starts with ERCs well above the 80th percentile over a large area. With little wetting rainfall and the potential for lightning ignitions, an Isolated dry thunder area will be maintained. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1113 AM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z ...Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic... Elevated fire weather conditions are beginning to emerge across the region with winds increasing to 15 mph and RH values falling into the 25-35% range. A recent uptick in fire activity with ongoing fires across northern SC also points to the onset of fire weather conditions. This aligns well with morning guidance, which depicts elevated fire weather conditions spreading as far east as Chesapeake Bay. The Elevated risk area has been expanded to account for this recent trend. ...New Mexico... Large-scale ascent is evident in mid-morning water-vapor imagery across the Southwest ahead of a weak mid-level trough. 12 UTC soundings across AZ/NM sampled steep 8-9 C/km mid-level lapse rates, which should support weak buoyancy (50-100 J/kg MUCAPE) later this afternoon as gradual moisture advection into southwest TX/eastern NM continues. The dry thunderstorm risk area has been shifted eastward to better align with where CAM guidance shows the best potential for convection with minimal rainfall. Dry thunderstorms are also possible further northwest into the Great Basin, but fuel conditions appear sufficiently moist to limit the overall dry-lightning threat. ..Moore.. 03/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0206 AM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging will continue to intensify as it shifts eastward into the central US today and tonight. A weak southern-stream trough will slide under the ridge over parts of the Southwest and southern Plains. A dry cold front will move eastward over the Appalachians beneath a broad upper trough favoring gusty winds and dry conditions over the east. Some fire-weather concerns are likely as isolated dry thunderstorms and dry/breezy conditions overlap with areas of dry fuels. ...Appalachians... Westerly downslope winds are likely across portions of the southern and central Appalachians this afternoon. Warm temperatures and downslope drying will also contribute to low afternoon RH below 25-30% for much of the western Carolinas, northeast GA and western VA. RH dropping to near critical thresholds, with wind speeds approaching 15 mph (with stronger gusts) will favor several hours of elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions given very dry fuels and recent fire activity. ...Southwest... A subtle southern-stream shortwave trough will move underneath the upper ridge into parts of the Southwest. Mid and low-level moisture will gradually move west, reaching parts of NM and west TX. Weak upslope flow and ascent from the trough will support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Dry sub-cloud layers will favor poor precipitation efficiency with weak buoyancy aloft. This could support a few dry thunderstorms with gusty winds. Fuels are highly receptive to fire starts with ERCs well above the 80th percentile over a large area. With little wetting rainfall and the potential for lightning ignitions, an Isolated dry thunder area will be maintained. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1113 AM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z ...Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic... Elevated fire weather conditions are beginning to emerge across the region with winds increasing to 15 mph and RH values falling into the 25-35% range. A recent uptick in fire activity with ongoing fires across northern SC also points to the onset of fire weather conditions. This aligns well with morning guidance, which depicts elevated fire weather conditions spreading as far east as Chesapeake Bay. The Elevated risk area has been expanded to account for this recent trend. ...New Mexico... Large-scale ascent is evident in mid-morning water-vapor imagery across the Southwest ahead of a weak mid-level trough. 12 UTC soundings across AZ/NM sampled steep 8-9 C/km mid-level lapse rates, which should support weak buoyancy (50-100 J/kg MUCAPE) later this afternoon as gradual moisture advection into southwest TX/eastern NM continues. The dry thunderstorm risk area has been shifted eastward to better align with where CAM guidance shows the best potential for convection with minimal rainfall. Dry thunderstorms are also possible further northwest into the Great Basin, but fuel conditions appear sufficiently moist to limit the overall dry-lightning threat. ..Moore.. 03/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0206 AM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging will continue to intensify as it shifts eastward into the central US today and tonight. A weak southern-stream trough will slide under the ridge over parts of the Southwest and southern Plains. A dry cold front will move eastward over the Appalachians beneath a broad upper trough favoring gusty winds and dry conditions over the east. Some fire-weather concerns are likely as isolated dry thunderstorms and dry/breezy conditions overlap with areas of dry fuels. ...Appalachians... Westerly downslope winds are likely across portions of the southern and central Appalachians this afternoon. Warm temperatures and downslope drying will also contribute to low afternoon RH below 25-30% for much of the western Carolinas, northeast GA and western VA. RH dropping to near critical thresholds, with wind speeds approaching 15 mph (with stronger gusts) will favor several hours of elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions given very dry fuels and recent fire activity. ...Southwest... A subtle southern-stream shortwave trough will move underneath the upper ridge into parts of the Southwest. Mid and low-level moisture will gradually move west, reaching parts of NM and west TX. Weak upslope flow and ascent from the trough will support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Dry sub-cloud layers will favor poor precipitation efficiency with weak buoyancy aloft. This could support a few dry thunderstorms with gusty winds. Fuels are highly receptive to fire starts with ERCs well above the 80th percentile over a large area. With little wetting rainfall and the potential for lightning ignitions, an Isolated dry thunder area will be maintained. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1113 AM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z ...Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic... Elevated fire weather conditions are beginning to emerge across the region with winds increasing to 15 mph and RH values falling into the 25-35% range. A recent uptick in fire activity with ongoing fires across northern SC also points to the onset of fire weather conditions. This aligns well with morning guidance, which depicts elevated fire weather conditions spreading as far east as Chesapeake Bay. The Elevated risk area has been expanded to account for this recent trend. ...New Mexico... Large-scale ascent is evident in mid-morning water-vapor imagery across the Southwest ahead of a weak mid-level trough. 12 UTC soundings across AZ/NM sampled steep 8-9 C/km mid-level lapse rates, which should support weak buoyancy (50-100 J/kg MUCAPE) later this afternoon as gradual moisture advection into southwest TX/eastern NM continues. The dry thunderstorm risk area has been shifted eastward to better align with where CAM guidance shows the best potential for convection with minimal rainfall. Dry thunderstorms are also possible further northwest into the Great Basin, but fuel conditions appear sufficiently moist to limit the overall dry-lightning threat. ..Moore.. 03/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0206 AM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging will continue to intensify as it shifts eastward into the central US today and tonight. A weak southern-stream trough will slide under the ridge over parts of the Southwest and southern Plains. A dry cold front will move eastward over the Appalachians beneath a broad upper trough favoring gusty winds and dry conditions over the east. Some fire-weather concerns are likely as isolated dry thunderstorms and dry/breezy conditions overlap with areas of dry fuels. ...Appalachians... Westerly downslope winds are likely across portions of the southern and central Appalachians this afternoon. Warm temperatures and downslope drying will also contribute to low afternoon RH below 25-30% for much of the western Carolinas, northeast GA and western VA. RH dropping to near critical thresholds, with wind speeds approaching 15 mph (with stronger gusts) will favor several hours of elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions given very dry fuels and recent fire activity. ...Southwest... A subtle southern-stream shortwave trough will move underneath the upper ridge into parts of the Southwest. Mid and low-level moisture will gradually move west, reaching parts of NM and west TX. Weak upslope flow and ascent from the trough will support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Dry sub-cloud layers will favor poor precipitation efficiency with weak buoyancy aloft. This could support a few dry thunderstorms with gusty winds. Fuels are highly receptive to fire starts with ERCs well above the 80th percentile over a large area. With little wetting rainfall and the potential for lightning ignitions, an Isolated dry thunder area will be maintained. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1113 AM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z ...Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic... Elevated fire weather conditions are beginning to emerge across the region with winds increasing to 15 mph and RH values falling into the 25-35% range. A recent uptick in fire activity with ongoing fires across northern SC also points to the onset of fire weather conditions. This aligns well with morning guidance, which depicts elevated fire weather conditions spreading as far east as Chesapeake Bay. The Elevated risk area has been expanded to account for this recent trend. ...New Mexico... Large-scale ascent is evident in mid-morning water-vapor imagery across the Southwest ahead of a weak mid-level trough. 12 UTC soundings across AZ/NM sampled steep 8-9 C/km mid-level lapse rates, which should support weak buoyancy (50-100 J/kg MUCAPE) later this afternoon as gradual moisture advection into southwest TX/eastern NM continues. The dry thunderstorm risk area has been shifted eastward to better align with where CAM guidance shows the best potential for convection with minimal rainfall. Dry thunderstorms are also possible further northwest into the Great Basin, but fuel conditions appear sufficiently moist to limit the overall dry-lightning threat. ..Moore.. 03/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0206 AM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging will continue to intensify as it shifts eastward into the central US today and tonight. A weak southern-stream trough will slide under the ridge over parts of the Southwest and southern Plains. A dry cold front will move eastward over the Appalachians beneath a broad upper trough favoring gusty winds and dry conditions over the east. Some fire-weather concerns are likely as isolated dry thunderstorms and dry/breezy conditions overlap with areas of dry fuels. ...Appalachians... Westerly downslope winds are likely across portions of the southern and central Appalachians this afternoon. Warm temperatures and downslope drying will also contribute to low afternoon RH below 25-30% for much of the western Carolinas, northeast GA and western VA. RH dropping to near critical thresholds, with wind speeds approaching 15 mph (with stronger gusts) will favor several hours of elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions given very dry fuels and recent fire activity. ...Southwest... A subtle southern-stream shortwave trough will move underneath the upper ridge into parts of the Southwest. Mid and low-level moisture will gradually move west, reaching parts of NM and west TX. Weak upslope flow and ascent from the trough will support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Dry sub-cloud layers will favor poor precipitation efficiency with weak buoyancy aloft. This could support a few dry thunderstorms with gusty winds. Fuels are highly receptive to fire starts with ERCs well above the 80th percentile over a large area. With little wetting rainfall and the potential for lightning ignitions, an Isolated dry thunder area will be maintained. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 AM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Valid 261300Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF WASHINGTON/OREGON... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the Pacific Northwest this afternoon and evening, with supercells possible west of the Cascades across Oregon into Washington. These storms may produce large hail, perhaps a tornado or two, and strong wind gusts. ...Pacific Northwest... A very active early season severe risk is expected regionally today. A seasonally strong upper low over the coastal Pacific Northwest will shift eastward today, highlighted by a 100+ kt mid-level speed max that will overspread coastal areas by evening. Strong height falls will similarly spread across this region and the associated synoptic cold front should arc from off the Washington Coast to southward along the Oregon Coast by evening. Low-level mean-mixing ratios are notably high, as compared to typical daily climatological values (highest 5-10%), this morning based on 12z observed soundings from Salem and Medford, Oregon. Large-scale forcing for ascent will contribute to a further moistening of profiles and PW values may approach 1 inch prior to convective initiation. Cold mid-level temperatures and a plume of steepening mid-level lapse rates will also notably overspread the region. Of particular concern are the cold mid-level temperatures, and the steep lapse rate plume that will overspread this region. Forecast soundings suggest convective temperatures should be breached by 21-22z west of the Cascades, and surface-based CAPE should reach/exceed 1000 J/kg coincident with a favorably sheared environment for organized, rotating updrafts. Isolated to scattered robust convection seems likely to develop by 21-22z across western Oregon, immediately ahead of the strong forcing. This activity should grow upscale and develop north-northeastward ahead of the approaching speed max, with profiles favoring supercell development. Hail should be common with this activity and the strongest updrafts may generate quite large hailstones, possibly exceeding golf ball size, or even larger with a few of the most intense storms. Some tornado risk will also exist, particularly where low-level winds maintain at least a modest easterly component. Damaging winds may also occur. ...Texas Lower Rio Grande River Valley... Water vapor imagery depicts a substantial sub-tropical cirrus plume from the southern Baja Peninsula, across Mexico toward the lower Rio Grande Valley. A weak disturbance will approach the international border through mid day, and this will draw a substantial moisture plume across South Texas. Forecast soundings exhibit modest lapse rates despite the moistening profiles. While forecast shear is not particularly strong, especially with northward extent, some organization is possible and this activity could generate gusty winds and/or hail. Otherwise, a considerable amount of convection is expected across this region which may tend to disrupt and limit organizational potential. ..Guyer/Bentley.. 03/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 AM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Valid 261300Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF WASHINGTON/OREGON... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the Pacific Northwest this afternoon and evening, with supercells possible west of the Cascades across Oregon into Washington. These storms may produce large hail, perhaps a tornado or two, and strong wind gusts. ...Pacific Northwest... A very active early season severe risk is expected regionally today. A seasonally strong upper low over the coastal Pacific Northwest will shift eastward today, highlighted by a 100+ kt mid-level speed max that will overspread coastal areas by evening. Strong height falls will similarly spread across this region and the associated synoptic cold front should arc from off the Washington Coast to southward along the Oregon Coast by evening. Low-level mean-mixing ratios are notably high, as compared to typical daily climatological values (highest 5-10%), this morning based on 12z observed soundings from Salem and Medford, Oregon. Large-scale forcing for ascent will contribute to a further moistening of profiles and PW values may approach 1 inch prior to convective initiation. Cold mid-level temperatures and a plume of steepening mid-level lapse rates will also notably overspread the region. Of particular concern are the cold mid-level temperatures, and the steep lapse rate plume that will overspread this region. Forecast soundings suggest convective temperatures should be breached by 21-22z west of the Cascades, and surface-based CAPE should reach/exceed 1000 J/kg coincident with a favorably sheared environment for organized, rotating updrafts. Isolated to scattered robust convection seems likely to develop by 21-22z across western Oregon, immediately ahead of the strong forcing. This activity should grow upscale and develop north-northeastward ahead of the approaching speed max, with profiles favoring supercell development. Hail should be common with this activity and the strongest updrafts may generate quite large hailstones, possibly exceeding golf ball size, or even larger with a few of the most intense storms. Some tornado risk will also exist, particularly where low-level winds maintain at least a modest easterly component. Damaging winds may also occur. ...Texas Lower Rio Grande River Valley... Water vapor imagery depicts a substantial sub-tropical cirrus plume from the southern Baja Peninsula, across Mexico toward the lower Rio Grande Valley. A weak disturbance will approach the international border through mid day, and this will draw a substantial moisture plume across South Texas. Forecast soundings exhibit modest lapse rates despite the moistening profiles. While forecast shear is not particularly strong, especially with northward extent, some organization is possible and this activity could generate gusty winds and/or hail. Otherwise, a considerable amount of convection is expected across this region which may tend to disrupt and limit organizational potential. ..Guyer/Bentley.. 03/26/2025 Read more