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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Gusty winds, along with some risk for hail, will accompany isolated thunderstorms across the southeastern Florida Peninsula, and parts of southeast Oklahoma and northern/central Texas. ...20Z Update... The primary changes made to the Day 1 Convective Outlook Update were to trim thunder probabilities along the OR Coast, portions of the central Appalachians, as well as the OH Valley and central High Plains. In these areas, forcing for ascent will be subtle at best, and buoyancy is expected to remain quite scant. A lightning flash or two may still occur with some of the deeper convective updrafts in these areas. Still, the overall thunderstorm coverage should be too low to warrant the maintenance of thunderstorm probabilities. ..Squitieri.. 03/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1055 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025/ ...FL... A broad upper trough is present today over the eastern US, with the southern fringe of stronger westerlies across south FL. Ample low-level moisture and strong heating will lead to moderate CAPE values across the southeast FL peninsula, where sea-breeze circulations will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms through the afternoon. Low-level winds are weak and veered. However, sufficient flow and cool temperatures aloft may be sufficient for a few organized storms capable of hail and gusty wind through early evening. ...TX/OK... Full sunshine is occurring over much of TX/OK, with weak southerly low level winds establishing an increasingly moist boundary layer air mass. By mid/late afternoon, a diffuse dryline is expected to develop across north-central TX where a handful of morning CAM solutions initiate isolated thunderstorms. While this scenario is not highly confident, any dryline storm would pose some risk of hail and gusty winds for a few hours. Overnight, a strengthening southerly low-level jet will enhance warm advection and lift across southern OK. This will likely lead to scattered elevated thunderstorms after 04z, spreading into northeast TX late. A few of these storms could produce hail and gusty winds. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Gusty winds, along with some risk for hail, will accompany isolated thunderstorms across the southeastern Florida Peninsula, and parts of southeast Oklahoma and northern/central Texas. ...20Z Update... The primary changes made to the Day 1 Convective Outlook Update were to trim thunder probabilities along the OR Coast, portions of the central Appalachians, as well as the OH Valley and central High Plains. In these areas, forcing for ascent will be subtle at best, and buoyancy is expected to remain quite scant. A lightning flash or two may still occur with some of the deeper convective updrafts in these areas. Still, the overall thunderstorm coverage should be too low to warrant the maintenance of thunderstorm probabilities. ..Squitieri.. 03/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1055 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025/ ...FL... A broad upper trough is present today over the eastern US, with the southern fringe of stronger westerlies across south FL. Ample low-level moisture and strong heating will lead to moderate CAPE values across the southeast FL peninsula, where sea-breeze circulations will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms through the afternoon. Low-level winds are weak and veered. However, sufficient flow and cool temperatures aloft may be sufficient for a few organized storms capable of hail and gusty wind through early evening. ...TX/OK... Full sunshine is occurring over much of TX/OK, with weak southerly low level winds establishing an increasingly moist boundary layer air mass. By mid/late afternoon, a diffuse dryline is expected to develop across north-central TX where a handful of morning CAM solutions initiate isolated thunderstorms. While this scenario is not highly confident, any dryline storm would pose some risk of hail and gusty winds for a few hours. Overnight, a strengthening southerly low-level jet will enhance warm advection and lift across southern OK. This will likely lead to scattered elevated thunderstorms after 04z, spreading into northeast TX late. A few of these storms could produce hail and gusty winds. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Gusty winds, along with some risk for hail, will accompany isolated thunderstorms across the southeastern Florida Peninsula, and parts of southeast Oklahoma and northern/central Texas. ...20Z Update... The primary changes made to the Day 1 Convective Outlook Update were to trim thunder probabilities along the OR Coast, portions of the central Appalachians, as well as the OH Valley and central High Plains. In these areas, forcing for ascent will be subtle at best, and buoyancy is expected to remain quite scant. A lightning flash or two may still occur with some of the deeper convective updrafts in these areas. Still, the overall thunderstorm coverage should be too low to warrant the maintenance of thunderstorm probabilities. ..Squitieri.. 03/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1055 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025/ ...FL... A broad upper trough is present today over the eastern US, with the southern fringe of stronger westerlies across south FL. Ample low-level moisture and strong heating will lead to moderate CAPE values across the southeast FL peninsula, where sea-breeze circulations will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms through the afternoon. Low-level winds are weak and veered. However, sufficient flow and cool temperatures aloft may be sufficient for a few organized storms capable of hail and gusty wind through early evening. ...TX/OK... Full sunshine is occurring over much of TX/OK, with weak southerly low level winds establishing an increasingly moist boundary layer air mass. By mid/late afternoon, a diffuse dryline is expected to develop across north-central TX where a handful of morning CAM solutions initiate isolated thunderstorms. While this scenario is not highly confident, any dryline storm would pose some risk of hail and gusty winds for a few hours. Overnight, a strengthening southerly low-level jet will enhance warm advection and lift across southern OK. This will likely lead to scattered elevated thunderstorms after 04z, spreading into northeast TX late. A few of these storms could produce hail and gusty winds. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Gusty winds, along with some risk for hail, will accompany isolated thunderstorms across the southeastern Florida Peninsula, and parts of southeast Oklahoma and northern/central Texas. ...20Z Update... The primary changes made to the Day 1 Convective Outlook Update were to trim thunder probabilities along the OR Coast, portions of the central Appalachians, as well as the OH Valley and central High Plains. In these areas, forcing for ascent will be subtle at best, and buoyancy is expected to remain quite scant. A lightning flash or two may still occur with some of the deeper convective updrafts in these areas. Still, the overall thunderstorm coverage should be too low to warrant the maintenance of thunderstorm probabilities. ..Squitieri.. 03/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1055 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025/ ...FL... A broad upper trough is present today over the eastern US, with the southern fringe of stronger westerlies across south FL. Ample low-level moisture and strong heating will lead to moderate CAPE values across the southeast FL peninsula, where sea-breeze circulations will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms through the afternoon. Low-level winds are weak and veered. However, sufficient flow and cool temperatures aloft may be sufficient for a few organized storms capable of hail and gusty wind through early evening. ...TX/OK... Full sunshine is occurring over much of TX/OK, with weak southerly low level winds establishing an increasingly moist boundary layer air mass. By mid/late afternoon, a diffuse dryline is expected to develop across north-central TX where a handful of morning CAM solutions initiate isolated thunderstorms. While this scenario is not highly confident, any dryline storm would pose some risk of hail and gusty winds for a few hours. Overnight, a strengthening southerly low-level jet will enhance warm advection and lift across southern OK. This will likely lead to scattered elevated thunderstorms after 04z, spreading into northeast TX late. A few of these storms could produce hail and gusty winds. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Gusty winds, along with some risk for hail, will accompany isolated thunderstorms across the southeastern Florida Peninsula, and parts of southeast Oklahoma and northern/central Texas. ...20Z Update... The primary changes made to the Day 1 Convective Outlook Update were to trim thunder probabilities along the OR Coast, portions of the central Appalachians, as well as the OH Valley and central High Plains. In these areas, forcing for ascent will be subtle at best, and buoyancy is expected to remain quite scant. A lightning flash or two may still occur with some of the deeper convective updrafts in these areas. Still, the overall thunderstorm coverage should be too low to warrant the maintenance of thunderstorm probabilities. ..Squitieri.. 03/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1055 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025/ ...FL... A broad upper trough is present today over the eastern US, with the southern fringe of stronger westerlies across south FL. Ample low-level moisture and strong heating will lead to moderate CAPE values across the southeast FL peninsula, where sea-breeze circulations will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms through the afternoon. Low-level winds are weak and veered. However, sufficient flow and cool temperatures aloft may be sufficient for a few organized storms capable of hail and gusty wind through early evening. ...TX/OK... Full sunshine is occurring over much of TX/OK, with weak southerly low level winds establishing an increasingly moist boundary layer air mass. By mid/late afternoon, a diffuse dryline is expected to develop across north-central TX where a handful of morning CAM solutions initiate isolated thunderstorms. While this scenario is not highly confident, any dryline storm would pose some risk of hail and gusty winds for a few hours. Overnight, a strengthening southerly low-level jet will enhance warm advection and lift across southern OK. This will likely lead to scattered elevated thunderstorms after 04z, spreading into northeast TX late. A few of these storms could produce hail and gusty winds. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Gusty winds, along with some risk for hail, will accompany isolated thunderstorms across the southeastern Florida Peninsula, and parts of southeast Oklahoma and northern/central Texas. ...20Z Update... The primary changes made to the Day 1 Convective Outlook Update were to trim thunder probabilities along the OR Coast, portions of the central Appalachians, as well as the OH Valley and central High Plains. In these areas, forcing for ascent will be subtle at best, and buoyancy is expected to remain quite scant. A lightning flash or two may still occur with some of the deeper convective updrafts in these areas. Still, the overall thunderstorm coverage should be too low to warrant the maintenance of thunderstorm probabilities. ..Squitieri.. 03/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1055 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025/ ...FL... A broad upper trough is present today over the eastern US, with the southern fringe of stronger westerlies across south FL. Ample low-level moisture and strong heating will lead to moderate CAPE values across the southeast FL peninsula, where sea-breeze circulations will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms through the afternoon. Low-level winds are weak and veered. However, sufficient flow and cool temperatures aloft may be sufficient for a few organized storms capable of hail and gusty wind through early evening. ...TX/OK... Full sunshine is occurring over much of TX/OK, with weak southerly low level winds establishing an increasingly moist boundary layer air mass. By mid/late afternoon, a diffuse dryline is expected to develop across north-central TX where a handful of morning CAM solutions initiate isolated thunderstorms. While this scenario is not highly confident, any dryline storm would pose some risk of hail and gusty winds for a few hours. Overnight, a strengthening southerly low-level jet will enhance warm advection and lift across southern OK. This will likely lead to scattered elevated thunderstorms after 04z, spreading into northeast TX late. A few of these storms could produce hail and gusty winds. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Gusty winds, along with some risk for hail, will accompany isolated thunderstorms across the southeastern Florida Peninsula, and parts of southeast Oklahoma and northern/central Texas. ...20Z Update... The primary changes made to the Day 1 Convective Outlook Update were to trim thunder probabilities along the OR Coast, portions of the central Appalachians, as well as the OH Valley and central High Plains. In these areas, forcing for ascent will be subtle at best, and buoyancy is expected to remain quite scant. A lightning flash or two may still occur with some of the deeper convective updrafts in these areas. Still, the overall thunderstorm coverage should be too low to warrant the maintenance of thunderstorm probabilities. ..Squitieri.. 03/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1055 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025/ ...FL... A broad upper trough is present today over the eastern US, with the southern fringe of stronger westerlies across south FL. Ample low-level moisture and strong heating will lead to moderate CAPE values across the southeast FL peninsula, where sea-breeze circulations will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms through the afternoon. Low-level winds are weak and veered. However, sufficient flow and cool temperatures aloft may be sufficient for a few organized storms capable of hail and gusty wind through early evening. ...TX/OK... Full sunshine is occurring over much of TX/OK, with weak southerly low level winds establishing an increasingly moist boundary layer air mass. By mid/late afternoon, a diffuse dryline is expected to develop across north-central TX where a handful of morning CAM solutions initiate isolated thunderstorms. While this scenario is not highly confident, any dryline storm would pose some risk of hail and gusty winds for a few hours. Overnight, a strengthening southerly low-level jet will enhance warm advection and lift across southern OK. This will likely lead to scattered elevated thunderstorms after 04z, spreading into northeast TX late. A few of these storms could produce hail and gusty winds. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Gusty winds, along with some risk for hail, will accompany isolated thunderstorms across the southeastern Florida Peninsula, and parts of southeast Oklahoma and northern/central Texas. ...20Z Update... The primary changes made to the Day 1 Convective Outlook Update were to trim thunder probabilities along the OR Coast, portions of the central Appalachians, as well as the OH Valley and central High Plains. In these areas, forcing for ascent will be subtle at best, and buoyancy is expected to remain quite scant. A lightning flash or two may still occur with some of the deeper convective updrafts in these areas. Still, the overall thunderstorm coverage should be too low to warrant the maintenance of thunderstorm probabilities. ..Squitieri.. 03/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1055 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025/ ...FL... A broad upper trough is present today over the eastern US, with the southern fringe of stronger westerlies across south FL. Ample low-level moisture and strong heating will lead to moderate CAPE values across the southeast FL peninsula, where sea-breeze circulations will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms through the afternoon. Low-level winds are weak and veered. However, sufficient flow and cool temperatures aloft may be sufficient for a few organized storms capable of hail and gusty wind through early evening. ...TX/OK... Full sunshine is occurring over much of TX/OK, with weak southerly low level winds establishing an increasingly moist boundary layer air mass. By mid/late afternoon, a diffuse dryline is expected to develop across north-central TX where a handful of morning CAM solutions initiate isolated thunderstorms. While this scenario is not highly confident, any dryline storm would pose some risk of hail and gusty winds for a few hours. Overnight, a strengthening southerly low-level jet will enhance warm advection and lift across southern OK. This will likely lead to scattered elevated thunderstorms after 04z, spreading into northeast TX late. A few of these storms could produce hail and gusty winds. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Gusty winds, along with some risk for hail, will accompany isolated thunderstorms across the southeastern Florida Peninsula, and parts of southeast Oklahoma and northern/central Texas. ...20Z Update... The primary changes made to the Day 1 Convective Outlook Update were to trim thunder probabilities along the OR Coast, portions of the central Appalachians, as well as the OH Valley and central High Plains. In these areas, forcing for ascent will be subtle at best, and buoyancy is expected to remain quite scant. A lightning flash or two may still occur with some of the deeper convective updrafts in these areas. Still, the overall thunderstorm coverage should be too low to warrant the maintenance of thunderstorm probabilities. ..Squitieri.. 03/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1055 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025/ ...FL... A broad upper trough is present today over the eastern US, with the southern fringe of stronger westerlies across south FL. Ample low-level moisture and strong heating will lead to moderate CAPE values across the southeast FL peninsula, where sea-breeze circulations will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms through the afternoon. Low-level winds are weak and veered. However, sufficient flow and cool temperatures aloft may be sufficient for a few organized storms capable of hail and gusty wind through early evening. ...TX/OK... Full sunshine is occurring over much of TX/OK, with weak southerly low level winds establishing an increasingly moist boundary layer air mass. By mid/late afternoon, a diffuse dryline is expected to develop across north-central TX where a handful of morning CAM solutions initiate isolated thunderstorms. While this scenario is not highly confident, any dryline storm would pose some risk of hail and gusty winds for a few hours. Overnight, a strengthening southerly low-level jet will enhance warm advection and lift across southern OK. This will likely lead to scattered elevated thunderstorms after 04z, spreading into northeast TX late. A few of these storms could produce hail and gusty winds. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Gusty winds, along with some risk for hail, will accompany isolated thunderstorms across the southeastern Florida Peninsula, and parts of southeast Oklahoma and northern/central Texas. ...20Z Update... The primary changes made to the Day 1 Convective Outlook Update were to trim thunder probabilities along the OR Coast, portions of the central Appalachians, as well as the OH Valley and central High Plains. In these areas, forcing for ascent will be subtle at best, and buoyancy is expected to remain quite scant. A lightning flash or two may still occur with some of the deeper convective updrafts in these areas. Still, the overall thunderstorm coverage should be too low to warrant the maintenance of thunderstorm probabilities. ..Squitieri.. 03/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1055 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025/ ...FL... A broad upper trough is present today over the eastern US, with the southern fringe of stronger westerlies across south FL. Ample low-level moisture and strong heating will lead to moderate CAPE values across the southeast FL peninsula, where sea-breeze circulations will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms through the afternoon. Low-level winds are weak and veered. However, sufficient flow and cool temperatures aloft may be sufficient for a few organized storms capable of hail and gusty wind through early evening. ...TX/OK... Full sunshine is occurring over much of TX/OK, with weak southerly low level winds establishing an increasingly moist boundary layer air mass. By mid/late afternoon, a diffuse dryline is expected to develop across north-central TX where a handful of morning CAM solutions initiate isolated thunderstorms. While this scenario is not highly confident, any dryline storm would pose some risk of hail and gusty winds for a few hours. Overnight, a strengthening southerly low-level jet will enhance warm advection and lift across southern OK. This will likely lead to scattered elevated thunderstorms after 04z, spreading into northeast TX late. A few of these storms could produce hail and gusty winds. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across south Texas into the Trans-Pecos from Thursday morning to evening, and over the Lower Missouri/Mid-Mississippi Valleys, mainly during the afternoon into Thursday night. ...South TX to the Trans-Pecos... Non-NAM guidance is fairly consistent with extensive deep convection ongoing across parts of south TX at 12Z Thursday, in association with a leading low-amplitude shortwave impulse. This suggests that one round of severe potential along the Lower TX Coast and Deep South TX may occur through late morning into midday before convection weakens/shifts offshore. In its wake, a period of stabilization, much more prominent than indicated by the 12Z NAM, appears likely. This may confine afternoon thunderstorm development to the higher terrain of the Trans-Pecos and northeast Mexico. But with weak mid-level troughing and potential for upstream low-amplitude impulses, recovery may occur by evening to yield renewed severe potential across the Rio Grande Valley. ...Lower MO/Mid-MS Valleys... Highly elevated, weak convection should be ongoing at 12Z Thursday across parts of IA to northern MO, downstream of the northward-advancing surface warm front. With elevated buoyancy gradually increasing, it is plausible a couple strong storms might develop along the southern periphery of this convective plume across the Mid-MO Valley into the afternoon. A more favorable thermodynamic environment is expected by late afternoon along the front in northeast KS. Renewed storm development may occur here, becoming likely downstream of a strengthening low-level jet Thursday evening. With potential for greater elevated buoyancy, especially west owing to steeper mid-level lapse rates within the upstream EML, severe hail will be possible. Forecast profiles suggest that shear within the lower half of the elevated parcels may be modest and this may support a predominant cluster mode that limits the threat. ..Grams.. 03/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across south Texas into the Trans-Pecos from Thursday morning to evening, and over the Lower Missouri/Mid-Mississippi Valleys, mainly during the afternoon into Thursday night. ...South TX to the Trans-Pecos... Non-NAM guidance is fairly consistent with extensive deep convection ongoing across parts of south TX at 12Z Thursday, in association with a leading low-amplitude shortwave impulse. This suggests that one round of severe potential along the Lower TX Coast and Deep South TX may occur through late morning into midday before convection weakens/shifts offshore. In its wake, a period of stabilization, much more prominent than indicated by the 12Z NAM, appears likely. This may confine afternoon thunderstorm development to the higher terrain of the Trans-Pecos and northeast Mexico. But with weak mid-level troughing and potential for upstream low-amplitude impulses, recovery may occur by evening to yield renewed severe potential across the Rio Grande Valley. ...Lower MO/Mid-MS Valleys... Highly elevated, weak convection should be ongoing at 12Z Thursday across parts of IA to northern MO, downstream of the northward-advancing surface warm front. With elevated buoyancy gradually increasing, it is plausible a couple strong storms might develop along the southern periphery of this convective plume across the Mid-MO Valley into the afternoon. A more favorable thermodynamic environment is expected by late afternoon along the front in northeast KS. Renewed storm development may occur here, becoming likely downstream of a strengthening low-level jet Thursday evening. With potential for greater elevated buoyancy, especially west owing to steeper mid-level lapse rates within the upstream EML, severe hail will be possible. Forecast profiles suggest that shear within the lower half of the elevated parcels may be modest and this may support a predominant cluster mode that limits the threat. ..Grams.. 03/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across south Texas into the Trans-Pecos from Thursday morning to evening, and over the Lower Missouri/Mid-Mississippi Valleys, mainly during the afternoon into Thursday night. ...South TX to the Trans-Pecos... Non-NAM guidance is fairly consistent with extensive deep convection ongoing across parts of south TX at 12Z Thursday, in association with a leading low-amplitude shortwave impulse. This suggests that one round of severe potential along the Lower TX Coast and Deep South TX may occur through late morning into midday before convection weakens/shifts offshore. In its wake, a period of stabilization, much more prominent than indicated by the 12Z NAM, appears likely. This may confine afternoon thunderstorm development to the higher terrain of the Trans-Pecos and northeast Mexico. But with weak mid-level troughing and potential for upstream low-amplitude impulses, recovery may occur by evening to yield renewed severe potential across the Rio Grande Valley. ...Lower MO/Mid-MS Valleys... Highly elevated, weak convection should be ongoing at 12Z Thursday across parts of IA to northern MO, downstream of the northward-advancing surface warm front. With elevated buoyancy gradually increasing, it is plausible a couple strong storms might develop along the southern periphery of this convective plume across the Mid-MO Valley into the afternoon. A more favorable thermodynamic environment is expected by late afternoon along the front in northeast KS. Renewed storm development may occur here, becoming likely downstream of a strengthening low-level jet Thursday evening. With potential for greater elevated buoyancy, especially west owing to steeper mid-level lapse rates within the upstream EML, severe hail will be possible. Forecast profiles suggest that shear within the lower half of the elevated parcels may be modest and this may support a predominant cluster mode that limits the threat. ..Grams.. 03/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across south Texas into the Trans-Pecos from Thursday morning to evening, and over the Lower Missouri/Mid-Mississippi Valleys, mainly during the afternoon into Thursday night. ...South TX to the Trans-Pecos... Non-NAM guidance is fairly consistent with extensive deep convection ongoing across parts of south TX at 12Z Thursday, in association with a leading low-amplitude shortwave impulse. This suggests that one round of severe potential along the Lower TX Coast and Deep South TX may occur through late morning into midday before convection weakens/shifts offshore. In its wake, a period of stabilization, much more prominent than indicated by the 12Z NAM, appears likely. This may confine afternoon thunderstorm development to the higher terrain of the Trans-Pecos and northeast Mexico. But with weak mid-level troughing and potential for upstream low-amplitude impulses, recovery may occur by evening to yield renewed severe potential across the Rio Grande Valley. ...Lower MO/Mid-MS Valleys... Highly elevated, weak convection should be ongoing at 12Z Thursday across parts of IA to northern MO, downstream of the northward-advancing surface warm front. With elevated buoyancy gradually increasing, it is plausible a couple strong storms might develop along the southern periphery of this convective plume across the Mid-MO Valley into the afternoon. A more favorable thermodynamic environment is expected by late afternoon along the front in northeast KS. Renewed storm development may occur here, becoming likely downstream of a strengthening low-level jet Thursday evening. With potential for greater elevated buoyancy, especially west owing to steeper mid-level lapse rates within the upstream EML, severe hail will be possible. Forecast profiles suggest that shear within the lower half of the elevated parcels may be modest and this may support a predominant cluster mode that limits the threat. ..Grams.. 03/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across south Texas into the Trans-Pecos from Thursday morning to evening, and over the Lower Missouri/Mid-Mississippi Valleys, mainly during the afternoon into Thursday night. ...South TX to the Trans-Pecos... Non-NAM guidance is fairly consistent with extensive deep convection ongoing across parts of south TX at 12Z Thursday, in association with a leading low-amplitude shortwave impulse. This suggests that one round of severe potential along the Lower TX Coast and Deep South TX may occur through late morning into midday before convection weakens/shifts offshore. In its wake, a period of stabilization, much more prominent than indicated by the 12Z NAM, appears likely. This may confine afternoon thunderstorm development to the higher terrain of the Trans-Pecos and northeast Mexico. But with weak mid-level troughing and potential for upstream low-amplitude impulses, recovery may occur by evening to yield renewed severe potential across the Rio Grande Valley. ...Lower MO/Mid-MS Valleys... Highly elevated, weak convection should be ongoing at 12Z Thursday across parts of IA to northern MO, downstream of the northward-advancing surface warm front. With elevated buoyancy gradually increasing, it is plausible a couple strong storms might develop along the southern periphery of this convective plume across the Mid-MO Valley into the afternoon. A more favorable thermodynamic environment is expected by late afternoon along the front in northeast KS. Renewed storm development may occur here, becoming likely downstream of a strengthening low-level jet Thursday evening. With potential for greater elevated buoyancy, especially west owing to steeper mid-level lapse rates within the upstream EML, severe hail will be possible. Forecast profiles suggest that shear within the lower half of the elevated parcels may be modest and this may support a predominant cluster mode that limits the threat. ..Grams.. 03/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across south Texas into the Trans-Pecos from Thursday morning to evening, and over the Lower Missouri/Mid-Mississippi Valleys, mainly during the afternoon into Thursday night. ...South TX to the Trans-Pecos... Non-NAM guidance is fairly consistent with extensive deep convection ongoing across parts of south TX at 12Z Thursday, in association with a leading low-amplitude shortwave impulse. This suggests that one round of severe potential along the Lower TX Coast and Deep South TX may occur through late morning into midday before convection weakens/shifts offshore. In its wake, a period of stabilization, much more prominent than indicated by the 12Z NAM, appears likely. This may confine afternoon thunderstorm development to the higher terrain of the Trans-Pecos and northeast Mexico. But with weak mid-level troughing and potential for upstream low-amplitude impulses, recovery may occur by evening to yield renewed severe potential across the Rio Grande Valley. ...Lower MO/Mid-MS Valleys... Highly elevated, weak convection should be ongoing at 12Z Thursday across parts of IA to northern MO, downstream of the northward-advancing surface warm front. With elevated buoyancy gradually increasing, it is plausible a couple strong storms might develop along the southern periphery of this convective plume across the Mid-MO Valley into the afternoon. A more favorable thermodynamic environment is expected by late afternoon along the front in northeast KS. Renewed storm development may occur here, becoming likely downstream of a strengthening low-level jet Thursday evening. With potential for greater elevated buoyancy, especially west owing to steeper mid-level lapse rates within the upstream EML, severe hail will be possible. Forecast profiles suggest that shear within the lower half of the elevated parcels may be modest and this may support a predominant cluster mode that limits the threat. ..Grams.. 03/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across south Texas into the Trans-Pecos from Thursday morning to evening, and over the Lower Missouri/Mid-Mississippi Valleys, mainly during the afternoon into Thursday night. ...South TX to the Trans-Pecos... Non-NAM guidance is fairly consistent with extensive deep convection ongoing across parts of south TX at 12Z Thursday, in association with a leading low-amplitude shortwave impulse. This suggests that one round of severe potential along the Lower TX Coast and Deep South TX may occur through late morning into midday before convection weakens/shifts offshore. In its wake, a period of stabilization, much more prominent than indicated by the 12Z NAM, appears likely. This may confine afternoon thunderstorm development to the higher terrain of the Trans-Pecos and northeast Mexico. But with weak mid-level troughing and potential for upstream low-amplitude impulses, recovery may occur by evening to yield renewed severe potential across the Rio Grande Valley. ...Lower MO/Mid-MS Valleys... Highly elevated, weak convection should be ongoing at 12Z Thursday across parts of IA to northern MO, downstream of the northward-advancing surface warm front. With elevated buoyancy gradually increasing, it is plausible a couple strong storms might develop along the southern periphery of this convective plume across the Mid-MO Valley into the afternoon. A more favorable thermodynamic environment is expected by late afternoon along the front in northeast KS. Renewed storm development may occur here, becoming likely downstream of a strengthening low-level jet Thursday evening. With potential for greater elevated buoyancy, especially west owing to steeper mid-level lapse rates within the upstream EML, severe hail will be possible. Forecast profiles suggest that shear within the lower half of the elevated parcels may be modest and this may support a predominant cluster mode that limits the threat. ..Grams.. 03/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across south Texas into the Trans-Pecos from Thursday morning to evening, and over the Lower Missouri/Mid-Mississippi Valleys, mainly during the afternoon into Thursday night. ...South TX to the Trans-Pecos... Non-NAM guidance is fairly consistent with extensive deep convection ongoing across parts of south TX at 12Z Thursday, in association with a leading low-amplitude shortwave impulse. This suggests that one round of severe potential along the Lower TX Coast and Deep South TX may occur through late morning into midday before convection weakens/shifts offshore. In its wake, a period of stabilization, much more prominent than indicated by the 12Z NAM, appears likely. This may confine afternoon thunderstorm development to the higher terrain of the Trans-Pecos and northeast Mexico. But with weak mid-level troughing and potential for upstream low-amplitude impulses, recovery may occur by evening to yield renewed severe potential across the Rio Grande Valley. ...Lower MO/Mid-MS Valleys... Highly elevated, weak convection should be ongoing at 12Z Thursday across parts of IA to northern MO, downstream of the northward-advancing surface warm front. With elevated buoyancy gradually increasing, it is plausible a couple strong storms might develop along the southern periphery of this convective plume across the Mid-MO Valley into the afternoon. A more favorable thermodynamic environment is expected by late afternoon along the front in northeast KS. Renewed storm development may occur here, becoming likely downstream of a strengthening low-level jet Thursday evening. With potential for greater elevated buoyancy, especially west owing to steeper mid-level lapse rates within the upstream EML, severe hail will be possible. Forecast profiles suggest that shear within the lower half of the elevated parcels may be modest and this may support a predominant cluster mode that limits the threat. ..Grams.. 03/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across south Texas into the Trans-Pecos from Thursday morning to evening, and over the Lower Missouri/Mid-Mississippi Valleys, mainly during the afternoon into Thursday night. ...South TX to the Trans-Pecos... Non-NAM guidance is fairly consistent with extensive deep convection ongoing across parts of south TX at 12Z Thursday, in association with a leading low-amplitude shortwave impulse. This suggests that one round of severe potential along the Lower TX Coast and Deep South TX may occur through late morning into midday before convection weakens/shifts offshore. In its wake, a period of stabilization, much more prominent than indicated by the 12Z NAM, appears likely. This may confine afternoon thunderstorm development to the higher terrain of the Trans-Pecos and northeast Mexico. But with weak mid-level troughing and potential for upstream low-amplitude impulses, recovery may occur by evening to yield renewed severe potential across the Rio Grande Valley. ...Lower MO/Mid-MS Valleys... Highly elevated, weak convection should be ongoing at 12Z Thursday across parts of IA to northern MO, downstream of the northward-advancing surface warm front. With elevated buoyancy gradually increasing, it is plausible a couple strong storms might develop along the southern periphery of this convective plume across the Mid-MO Valley into the afternoon. A more favorable thermodynamic environment is expected by late afternoon along the front in northeast KS. Renewed storm development may occur here, becoming likely downstream of a strengthening low-level jet Thursday evening. With potential for greater elevated buoyancy, especially west owing to steeper mid-level lapse rates within the upstream EML, severe hail will be possible. Forecast profiles suggest that shear within the lower half of the elevated parcels may be modest and this may support a predominant cluster mode that limits the threat. ..Grams.. 03/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across south Texas into the Trans-Pecos from Thursday morning to evening, and over the Lower Missouri/Mid-Mississippi Valleys, mainly during the afternoon into Thursday night. ...South TX to the Trans-Pecos... Non-NAM guidance is fairly consistent with extensive deep convection ongoing across parts of south TX at 12Z Thursday, in association with a leading low-amplitude shortwave impulse. This suggests that one round of severe potential along the Lower TX Coast and Deep South TX may occur through late morning into midday before convection weakens/shifts offshore. In its wake, a period of stabilization, much more prominent than indicated by the 12Z NAM, appears likely. This may confine afternoon thunderstorm development to the higher terrain of the Trans-Pecos and northeast Mexico. But with weak mid-level troughing and potential for upstream low-amplitude impulses, recovery may occur by evening to yield renewed severe potential across the Rio Grande Valley. ...Lower MO/Mid-MS Valleys... Highly elevated, weak convection should be ongoing at 12Z Thursday across parts of IA to northern MO, downstream of the northward-advancing surface warm front. With elevated buoyancy gradually increasing, it is plausible a couple strong storms might develop along the southern periphery of this convective plume across the Mid-MO Valley into the afternoon. A more favorable thermodynamic environment is expected by late afternoon along the front in northeast KS. Renewed storm development may occur here, becoming likely downstream of a strengthening low-level jet Thursday evening. With potential for greater elevated buoyancy, especially west owing to steeper mid-level lapse rates within the upstream EML, severe hail will be possible. Forecast profiles suggest that shear within the lower half of the elevated parcels may be modest and this may support a predominant cluster mode that limits the threat. ..Grams.. 03/25/2025 Read more