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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 AM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are forecast across parts of the Pacific Northwest this afternoon and evening. Supercells are expected west of the Cascades across Oregon into Washington. These may produce large hail, perhaps a brief tornado, and locally strong gusts. ...Pacific Northwest... Seasonally strong upper low off the Pacific Northwest Coast will shift east today as a 100+kt 500mb speed max translates toward the OR Coast by late afternoon. Strong 12hr height falls will spread across this region and the associated synoptic cold front should arc from off the WA Coast-south along the OR Coast by 27/00z. Upper ridging has permitted boundary-layer moisture to increase/hold across both the interior Northwest, and west of the Cascades where surface dew points are currently in the mid 50s. While PW values are not forecast to be particularly high across this region, large-scale forcing will contribute to moistening profiles and PW values may approach 1 inch prior to convective initiation. Of particular concern are the cold mid-level temperatures, and the steep lapse rate plume that will overspread this region. Forecast soundings suggest convective temperatures should be breached by 21-22z west of the Cascades, and surface-based CAPE should approach 1000 J/kg within a favorably sheared environment for organized, rotating updrafts. Latest thinking is isolated-scattered robust convection will develop by 21-22z across western OR, immediately ahead of the strong forcing. This activity should grow upscale and lift north-northeast ahead of the approaching speed max. Profiles favor supercell development and latest HREF guidance supports this scenario. Hail should be common with this activity and the strongest updrafts may generate quite large stones, possibly exceeding golf ball size, or even larger with the strongest storms. While a brief tornado can not be ruled out, low-level shear does not look particularly favorable for more than an isolated report. Damaging winds are also possible with any of these supercells. Strongest storms should spread into WA during the early evening as the short wave ejects northeast. ...Lower Rio Grande River Valley... Water vapor imagery depicts a substantial sub-tropical cirrus plume from the southern Baja Peninsula, across Mexico toward the lower Rio Grande Valley. Latest model guidance suggests a weak disturbance will approach the international border by mid day and this will draw a substantial moisture plume into south TX. Forecast soundings exhibit modest lapse rates despite the moistening profiles. While forecast shear is not particularly strong, some organization is possible and this activity could generate gusty winds or perhaps some hail. Otherwise, a considerable amount of convection/precip is expected across this region which may disrupt/limit organizational potential. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 03/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 AM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are forecast across parts of the Pacific Northwest this afternoon and evening. Supercells are expected west of the Cascades across Oregon into Washington. These may produce large hail, perhaps a brief tornado, and locally strong gusts. ...Pacific Northwest... Seasonally strong upper low off the Pacific Northwest Coast will shift east today as a 100+kt 500mb speed max translates toward the OR Coast by late afternoon. Strong 12hr height falls will spread across this region and the associated synoptic cold front should arc from off the WA Coast-south along the OR Coast by 27/00z. Upper ridging has permitted boundary-layer moisture to increase/hold across both the interior Northwest, and west of the Cascades where surface dew points are currently in the mid 50s. While PW values are not forecast to be particularly high across this region, large-scale forcing will contribute to moistening profiles and PW values may approach 1 inch prior to convective initiation. Of particular concern are the cold mid-level temperatures, and the steep lapse rate plume that will overspread this region. Forecast soundings suggest convective temperatures should be breached by 21-22z west of the Cascades, and surface-based CAPE should approach 1000 J/kg within a favorably sheared environment for organized, rotating updrafts. Latest thinking is isolated-scattered robust convection will develop by 21-22z across western OR, immediately ahead of the strong forcing. This activity should grow upscale and lift north-northeast ahead of the approaching speed max. Profiles favor supercell development and latest HREF guidance supports this scenario. Hail should be common with this activity and the strongest updrafts may generate quite large stones, possibly exceeding golf ball size, or even larger with the strongest storms. While a brief tornado can not be ruled out, low-level shear does not look particularly favorable for more than an isolated report. Damaging winds are also possible with any of these supercells. Strongest storms should spread into WA during the early evening as the short wave ejects northeast. ...Lower Rio Grande River Valley... Water vapor imagery depicts a substantial sub-tropical cirrus plume from the southern Baja Peninsula, across Mexico toward the lower Rio Grande Valley. Latest model guidance suggests a weak disturbance will approach the international border by mid day and this will draw a substantial moisture plume into south TX. Forecast soundings exhibit modest lapse rates despite the moistening profiles. While forecast shear is not particularly strong, some organization is possible and this activity could generate gusty winds or perhaps some hail. Otherwise, a considerable amount of convection/precip is expected across this region which may disrupt/limit organizational potential. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 03/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 AM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are forecast across parts of the Pacific Northwest this afternoon and evening. Supercells are expected west of the Cascades across Oregon into Washington. These may produce large hail, perhaps a brief tornado, and locally strong gusts. ...Pacific Northwest... Seasonally strong upper low off the Pacific Northwest Coast will shift east today as a 100+kt 500mb speed max translates toward the OR Coast by late afternoon. Strong 12hr height falls will spread across this region and the associated synoptic cold front should arc from off the WA Coast-south along the OR Coast by 27/00z. Upper ridging has permitted boundary-layer moisture to increase/hold across both the interior Northwest, and west of the Cascades where surface dew points are currently in the mid 50s. While PW values are not forecast to be particularly high across this region, large-scale forcing will contribute to moistening profiles and PW values may approach 1 inch prior to convective initiation. Of particular concern are the cold mid-level temperatures, and the steep lapse rate plume that will overspread this region. Forecast soundings suggest convective temperatures should be breached by 21-22z west of the Cascades, and surface-based CAPE should approach 1000 J/kg within a favorably sheared environment for organized, rotating updrafts. Latest thinking is isolated-scattered robust convection will develop by 21-22z across western OR, immediately ahead of the strong forcing. This activity should grow upscale and lift north-northeast ahead of the approaching speed max. Profiles favor supercell development and latest HREF guidance supports this scenario. Hail should be common with this activity and the strongest updrafts may generate quite large stones, possibly exceeding golf ball size, or even larger with the strongest storms. While a brief tornado can not be ruled out, low-level shear does not look particularly favorable for more than an isolated report. Damaging winds are also possible with any of these supercells. Strongest storms should spread into WA during the early evening as the short wave ejects northeast. ...Lower Rio Grande River Valley... Water vapor imagery depicts a substantial sub-tropical cirrus plume from the southern Baja Peninsula, across Mexico toward the lower Rio Grande Valley. Latest model guidance suggests a weak disturbance will approach the international border by mid day and this will draw a substantial moisture plume into south TX. Forecast soundings exhibit modest lapse rates despite the moistening profiles. While forecast shear is not particularly strong, some organization is possible and this activity could generate gusty winds or perhaps some hail. Otherwise, a considerable amount of convection/precip is expected across this region which may disrupt/limit organizational potential. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 03/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 AM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are forecast across parts of the Pacific Northwest this afternoon and evening. Supercells are expected west of the Cascades across Oregon into Washington. These may produce large hail, perhaps a brief tornado, and locally strong gusts. ...Pacific Northwest... Seasonally strong upper low off the Pacific Northwest Coast will shift east today as a 100+kt 500mb speed max translates toward the OR Coast by late afternoon. Strong 12hr height falls will spread across this region and the associated synoptic cold front should arc from off the WA Coast-south along the OR Coast by 27/00z. Upper ridging has permitted boundary-layer moisture to increase/hold across both the interior Northwest, and west of the Cascades where surface dew points are currently in the mid 50s. While PW values are not forecast to be particularly high across this region, large-scale forcing will contribute to moistening profiles and PW values may approach 1 inch prior to convective initiation. Of particular concern are the cold mid-level temperatures, and the steep lapse rate plume that will overspread this region. Forecast soundings suggest convective temperatures should be breached by 21-22z west of the Cascades, and surface-based CAPE should approach 1000 J/kg within a favorably sheared environment for organized, rotating updrafts. Latest thinking is isolated-scattered robust convection will develop by 21-22z across western OR, immediately ahead of the strong forcing. This activity should grow upscale and lift north-northeast ahead of the approaching speed max. Profiles favor supercell development and latest HREF guidance supports this scenario. Hail should be common with this activity and the strongest updrafts may generate quite large stones, possibly exceeding golf ball size, or even larger with the strongest storms. While a brief tornado can not be ruled out, low-level shear does not look particularly favorable for more than an isolated report. Damaging winds are also possible with any of these supercells. Strongest storms should spread into WA during the early evening as the short wave ejects northeast. ...Lower Rio Grande River Valley... Water vapor imagery depicts a substantial sub-tropical cirrus plume from the southern Baja Peninsula, across Mexico toward the lower Rio Grande Valley. Latest model guidance suggests a weak disturbance will approach the international border by mid day and this will draw a substantial moisture plume into south TX. Forecast soundings exhibit modest lapse rates despite the moistening profiles. While forecast shear is not particularly strong, some organization is possible and this activity could generate gusty winds or perhaps some hail. Otherwise, a considerable amount of convection/precip is expected across this region which may disrupt/limit organizational potential. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 03/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 AM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are forecast across parts of the Pacific Northwest this afternoon and evening. Supercells are expected west of the Cascades across Oregon into Washington. These may produce large hail, perhaps a brief tornado, and locally strong gusts. ...Pacific Northwest... Seasonally strong upper low off the Pacific Northwest Coast will shift east today as a 100+kt 500mb speed max translates toward the OR Coast by late afternoon. Strong 12hr height falls will spread across this region and the associated synoptic cold front should arc from off the WA Coast-south along the OR Coast by 27/00z. Upper ridging has permitted boundary-layer moisture to increase/hold across both the interior Northwest, and west of the Cascades where surface dew points are currently in the mid 50s. While PW values are not forecast to be particularly high across this region, large-scale forcing will contribute to moistening profiles and PW values may approach 1 inch prior to convective initiation. Of particular concern are the cold mid-level temperatures, and the steep lapse rate plume that will overspread this region. Forecast soundings suggest convective temperatures should be breached by 21-22z west of the Cascades, and surface-based CAPE should approach 1000 J/kg within a favorably sheared environment for organized, rotating updrafts. Latest thinking is isolated-scattered robust convection will develop by 21-22z across western OR, immediately ahead of the strong forcing. This activity should grow upscale and lift north-northeast ahead of the approaching speed max. Profiles favor supercell development and latest HREF guidance supports this scenario. Hail should be common with this activity and the strongest updrafts may generate quite large stones, possibly exceeding golf ball size, or even larger with the strongest storms. While a brief tornado can not be ruled out, low-level shear does not look particularly favorable for more than an isolated report. Damaging winds are also possible with any of these supercells. Strongest storms should spread into WA during the early evening as the short wave ejects northeast. ...Lower Rio Grande River Valley... Water vapor imagery depicts a substantial sub-tropical cirrus plume from the southern Baja Peninsula, across Mexico toward the lower Rio Grande Valley. Latest model guidance suggests a weak disturbance will approach the international border by mid day and this will draw a substantial moisture plume into south TX. Forecast soundings exhibit modest lapse rates despite the moistening profiles. While forecast shear is not particularly strong, some organization is possible and this activity could generate gusty winds or perhaps some hail. Otherwise, a considerable amount of convection/precip is expected across this region which may disrupt/limit organizational potential. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 03/26/2025 Read more

The Minnehaha County Commission issued a burn ban for unincorporated parts of the county as firefighters have responded to numerous grass fires in March. The burn ban will remain in effect until significant rain falls. KELO Newstalk 1320 - 107.9 (Sioux Falls, S.D.), March 25, 2025

MD 0264 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL TX AND FAR SOUTHERN OK
Mesoscale Discussion 0264 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0847 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Areas affected...portions of north-central TX and far southern OK Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 260147Z - 260315Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A few storms ongoing across north-central TX and southern OK may persist into this evening with a continued risk for occasional hail. These storms should begin to gradually weaken over the next couple of hours. Additional storms later tonight may pose an isolated risk for isolated hail and damaging winds, but the magnitude of the threat remains unclear. DISCUSSION...This evening, regional radar imagery showed a cluster of splitting supercells had developed and produced occasional reports of severe hail across parts of southern OK and the DFW Metroplex. SPC mesoanalysis and the 00z FWD sounding show these storms ongoing within a local bullseye of 1000-1500 J/kg and modest effective shear sufficient for supercells. While not long-lived, and limited by stronger inhibition east of DFW, a few of these storms may persist for a couple more hours this evening before nocturnal stabilization gradually results in weakening. Until then, the stronger and more isolated updrafts will remain capable of occasional severe hail, given the steep mid-level lapse rates and supercell storm mode. Farther north across the Red River Valley into southern OK, a second round of storms may evolve as the nocturnal low-level jet intensifies later tonight. Most guidance suggests a few elevated storms could develop after 3-4z, and track southeastward across southern OK and north-central/northeast TX. While it is unclear what impact the ongoing storms may have on this more elevated regime, modest deep-layer shear, and around 1000 J/kg of elevated MUCAPE could support a localized hail threat later this evening. ..Lyons/Gleason.. 03/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 32599745 33169756 34149766 34619735 34519606 33879542 33519539 32949591 32359659 32339714 32599745 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0736 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 260100Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Hail is the primary severe risk with storms across north-central Texas into southeast Oklahoma tonight. ...Southern Plains... Modest northwesterly mid-level flow continues across the central/southern Plains this evening. While latest water-vapor imagery does not depict any meaningful disturbance embedded within this flow, isolated thunderstorms have developed/matured across north-central TX (Metroplex) into south-central OK. Strong diurnal heating was instrumental in this development as temperatures warmed into the mid 80s; however, nocturnal cooling will negate the risk for surface-based convection. Latest thinking is low-level warm advection will become the primary instigator in convective development overnight as some increase in the LLJ is expected into the Red River region. A northwest-southeast corridor of elevated convection may ultimately materialize across southern OK into northeast TX as the boundary-layer decouples and updrafts become rooted at the top of the boundary layer. Hail is the primary risk, and this should be fairly isolated in nature, thus a MRGL Risk appears warranted the rest of tonight. ..Darrow.. 03/26/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0736 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 260100Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Hail is the primary severe risk with storms across north-central Texas into southeast Oklahoma tonight. ...Southern Plains... Modest northwesterly mid-level flow continues across the central/southern Plains this evening. While latest water-vapor imagery does not depict any meaningful disturbance embedded within this flow, isolated thunderstorms have developed/matured across north-central TX (Metroplex) into south-central OK. Strong diurnal heating was instrumental in this development as temperatures warmed into the mid 80s; however, nocturnal cooling will negate the risk for surface-based convection. Latest thinking is low-level warm advection will become the primary instigator in convective development overnight as some increase in the LLJ is expected into the Red River region. A northwest-southeast corridor of elevated convection may ultimately materialize across southern OK into northeast TX as the boundary-layer decouples and updrafts become rooted at the top of the boundary layer. Hail is the primary risk, and this should be fairly isolated in nature, thus a MRGL Risk appears warranted the rest of tonight. ..Darrow.. 03/26/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0736 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 260100Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Hail is the primary severe risk with storms across north-central Texas into southeast Oklahoma tonight. ...Southern Plains... Modest northwesterly mid-level flow continues across the central/southern Plains this evening. While latest water-vapor imagery does not depict any meaningful disturbance embedded within this flow, isolated thunderstorms have developed/matured across north-central TX (Metroplex) into south-central OK. Strong diurnal heating was instrumental in this development as temperatures warmed into the mid 80s; however, nocturnal cooling will negate the risk for surface-based convection. Latest thinking is low-level warm advection will become the primary instigator in convective development overnight as some increase in the LLJ is expected into the Red River region. A northwest-southeast corridor of elevated convection may ultimately materialize across southern OK into northeast TX as the boundary-layer decouples and updrafts become rooted at the top of the boundary layer. Hail is the primary risk, and this should be fairly isolated in nature, thus a MRGL Risk appears warranted the rest of tonight. ..Darrow.. 03/26/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0736 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 260100Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Hail is the primary severe risk with storms across north-central Texas into southeast Oklahoma tonight. ...Southern Plains... Modest northwesterly mid-level flow continues across the central/southern Plains this evening. While latest water-vapor imagery does not depict any meaningful disturbance embedded within this flow, isolated thunderstorms have developed/matured across north-central TX (Metroplex) into south-central OK. Strong diurnal heating was instrumental in this development as temperatures warmed into the mid 80s; however, nocturnal cooling will negate the risk for surface-based convection. Latest thinking is low-level warm advection will become the primary instigator in convective development overnight as some increase in the LLJ is expected into the Red River region. A northwest-southeast corridor of elevated convection may ultimately materialize across southern OK into northeast TX as the boundary-layer decouples and updrafts become rooted at the top of the boundary layer. Hail is the primary risk, and this should be fairly isolated in nature, thus a MRGL Risk appears warranted the rest of tonight. ..Darrow.. 03/26/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0736 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 260100Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Hail is the primary severe risk with storms across north-central Texas into southeast Oklahoma tonight. ...Southern Plains... Modest northwesterly mid-level flow continues across the central/southern Plains this evening. While latest water-vapor imagery does not depict any meaningful disturbance embedded within this flow, isolated thunderstorms have developed/matured across north-central TX (Metroplex) into south-central OK. Strong diurnal heating was instrumental in this development as temperatures warmed into the mid 80s; however, nocturnal cooling will negate the risk for surface-based convection. Latest thinking is low-level warm advection will become the primary instigator in convective development overnight as some increase in the LLJ is expected into the Red River region. A northwest-southeast corridor of elevated convection may ultimately materialize across southern OK into northeast TX as the boundary-layer decouples and updrafts become rooted at the top of the boundary layer. Hail is the primary risk, and this should be fairly isolated in nature, thus a MRGL Risk appears warranted the rest of tonight. ..Darrow.. 03/26/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0736 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 260100Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Hail is the primary severe risk with storms across north-central Texas into southeast Oklahoma tonight. ...Southern Plains... Modest northwesterly mid-level flow continues across the central/southern Plains this evening. While latest water-vapor imagery does not depict any meaningful disturbance embedded within this flow, isolated thunderstorms have developed/matured across north-central TX (Metroplex) into south-central OK. Strong diurnal heating was instrumental in this development as temperatures warmed into the mid 80s; however, nocturnal cooling will negate the risk for surface-based convection. Latest thinking is low-level warm advection will become the primary instigator in convective development overnight as some increase in the LLJ is expected into the Red River region. A northwest-southeast corridor of elevated convection may ultimately materialize across southern OK into northeast TX as the boundary-layer decouples and updrafts become rooted at the top of the boundary layer. Hail is the primary risk, and this should be fairly isolated in nature, thus a MRGL Risk appears warranted the rest of tonight. ..Darrow.. 03/26/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0736 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 260100Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Hail is the primary severe risk with storms across north-central Texas into southeast Oklahoma tonight. ...Southern Plains... Modest northwesterly mid-level flow continues across the central/southern Plains this evening. While latest water-vapor imagery does not depict any meaningful disturbance embedded within this flow, isolated thunderstorms have developed/matured across north-central TX (Metroplex) into south-central OK. Strong diurnal heating was instrumental in this development as temperatures warmed into the mid 80s; however, nocturnal cooling will negate the risk for surface-based convection. Latest thinking is low-level warm advection will become the primary instigator in convective development overnight as some increase in the LLJ is expected into the Red River region. A northwest-southeast corridor of elevated convection may ultimately materialize across southern OK into northeast TX as the boundary-layer decouples and updrafts become rooted at the top of the boundary layer. Hail is the primary risk, and this should be fairly isolated in nature, thus a MRGL Risk appears warranted the rest of tonight. ..Darrow.. 03/26/2025 Read more

MD 0263 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR A SMALL PART OF NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS INTO FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0263 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0445 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Areas affected...a small part of north-central Texas into far south-central Oklahoma Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 252145Z - 260015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...An isolated, marginally severe storm or two may develop over a small part of North Texas, and perhaps into far south-central Oklahoma. DISCUSSION...Visible imagery and radar indicate towering CU and deepening convective showers along I-35, especially from Dallas southward. Very little lift is present, though weak surface convergence is noted. Although the air mass is uncapped due to temperatures reaching the upper 80s to lower 90s, convection has been fighting both dry air aloft and lack of a lifting mechanism. That said, further CU clustering / deepening is expected, and a storm or two is expected. Any storms that develop will have brief hail or locally strong gust potential, with relatively short longevity. The steep lapse rates and modest northwest flow may favor slow south/southeastward-moving cells affecting a limited area in the near term. ..Jewell/Gleason.. 03/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 31639802 32729775 33419764 34139764 34489770 34679747 34729702 34459668 33089655 32119672 31389707 31209747 31279789 31639802 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

No watches are valid as of Tue Mar 25 22:29:02 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0440 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z ...D3/Thursday: Parts of NM... 10% dry thunderstorm probabilities have been maintained across parts of NM for D3/Thursday. Isolated diurnal storm development will again be possible across much of NM into west TX. Storms along the western periphery of the deeper moist plume are unlikely to produce more than light precipitation, with potential for lightning strikes to result in fire starts within a region of dry and receptive fuels. ...D3/Thursday: Parts of FL... Relatively dry conditions are expected to persist across parts of the FL Peninsula on Thursday, within the influence of an offshore surface ridge. Minimum RH values may drop below 35%, especially across southeast portions of the peninsula. Winds are likely to remain rather modest, but locally elevated conditions will be possible during the afternoon and early evening. ...D4/Friday - D8/Tuesday: Parts of NM into west TX and vicinity... While predictability regarding the surface and upper-air pattern gradually decreases with time into early next week, it appears likely that multiple shortwaves will move across the southern Rockies into the Plains beginning on D4/Friday. 40% critical probabilities were maintained for Friday/Saturday and added for Sunday for parts of NM into west TX. The magnitude and north/east extent of critical potential remains uncertain this weekend, and will depend on the timing and amplitude of any ejecting shortwaves. For D7/Monday into D8/Tuesday, confidence remains too low to introduce critical probabilities, though elevated to potentially critical conditions may persist or develop into early next week, depending on the evolution of the pattern and persistent mid/upper-level troughing across the Southwest. ..Dean.. 03/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0440 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z ...D3/Thursday: Parts of NM... 10% dry thunderstorm probabilities have been maintained across parts of NM for D3/Thursday. Isolated diurnal storm development will again be possible across much of NM into west TX. Storms along the western periphery of the deeper moist plume are unlikely to produce more than light precipitation, with potential for lightning strikes to result in fire starts within a region of dry and receptive fuels. ...D3/Thursday: Parts of FL... Relatively dry conditions are expected to persist across parts of the FL Peninsula on Thursday, within the influence of an offshore surface ridge. Minimum RH values may drop below 35%, especially across southeast portions of the peninsula. Winds are likely to remain rather modest, but locally elevated conditions will be possible during the afternoon and early evening. ...D4/Friday - D8/Tuesday: Parts of NM into west TX and vicinity... While predictability regarding the surface and upper-air pattern gradually decreases with time into early next week, it appears likely that multiple shortwaves will move across the southern Rockies into the Plains beginning on D4/Friday. 40% critical probabilities were maintained for Friday/Saturday and added for Sunday for parts of NM into west TX. The magnitude and north/east extent of critical potential remains uncertain this weekend, and will depend on the timing and amplitude of any ejecting shortwaves. For D7/Monday into D8/Tuesday, confidence remains too low to introduce critical probabilities, though elevated to potentially critical conditions may persist or develop into early next week, depending on the evolution of the pattern and persistent mid/upper-level troughing across the Southwest. ..Dean.. 03/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0440 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z ...D3/Thursday: Parts of NM... 10% dry thunderstorm probabilities have been maintained across parts of NM for D3/Thursday. Isolated diurnal storm development will again be possible across much of NM into west TX. Storms along the western periphery of the deeper moist plume are unlikely to produce more than light precipitation, with potential for lightning strikes to result in fire starts within a region of dry and receptive fuels. ...D3/Thursday: Parts of FL... Relatively dry conditions are expected to persist across parts of the FL Peninsula on Thursday, within the influence of an offshore surface ridge. Minimum RH values may drop below 35%, especially across southeast portions of the peninsula. Winds are likely to remain rather modest, but locally elevated conditions will be possible during the afternoon and early evening. ...D4/Friday - D8/Tuesday: Parts of NM into west TX and vicinity... While predictability regarding the surface and upper-air pattern gradually decreases with time into early next week, it appears likely that multiple shortwaves will move across the southern Rockies into the Plains beginning on D4/Friday. 40% critical probabilities were maintained for Friday/Saturday and added for Sunday for parts of NM into west TX. The magnitude and north/east extent of critical potential remains uncertain this weekend, and will depend on the timing and amplitude of any ejecting shortwaves. For D7/Monday into D8/Tuesday, confidence remains too low to introduce critical probabilities, though elevated to potentially critical conditions may persist or develop into early next week, depending on the evolution of the pattern and persistent mid/upper-level troughing across the Southwest. ..Dean.. 03/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0440 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z ...D3/Thursday: Parts of NM... 10% dry thunderstorm probabilities have been maintained across parts of NM for D3/Thursday. Isolated diurnal storm development will again be possible across much of NM into west TX. Storms along the western periphery of the deeper moist plume are unlikely to produce more than light precipitation, with potential for lightning strikes to result in fire starts within a region of dry and receptive fuels. ...D3/Thursday: Parts of FL... Relatively dry conditions are expected to persist across parts of the FL Peninsula on Thursday, within the influence of an offshore surface ridge. Minimum RH values may drop below 35%, especially across southeast portions of the peninsula. Winds are likely to remain rather modest, but locally elevated conditions will be possible during the afternoon and early evening. ...D4/Friday - D8/Tuesday: Parts of NM into west TX and vicinity... While predictability regarding the surface and upper-air pattern gradually decreases with time into early next week, it appears likely that multiple shortwaves will move across the southern Rockies into the Plains beginning on D4/Friday. 40% critical probabilities were maintained for Friday/Saturday and added for Sunday for parts of NM into west TX. The magnitude and north/east extent of critical potential remains uncertain this weekend, and will depend on the timing and amplitude of any ejecting shortwaves. For D7/Monday into D8/Tuesday, confidence remains too low to introduce critical probabilities, though elevated to potentially critical conditions may persist or develop into early next week, depending on the evolution of the pattern and persistent mid/upper-level troughing across the Southwest. ..Dean.. 03/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more