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MD 0273 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF EAST TX AND WESTERN LA
Mesoscale Discussion 0273 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1046 AM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025 Areas affected...Parts of east TX and western LA Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 281546Z - 281745Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Strong to locally severe storms are possible into this afternoon, with a threat of locally damaging gusts and possibly a tornado. DISCUSSION...Several northward moving cells/clusters are ongoing across east TX late this morning, to the east of a convectively enhanced midlevel shortwave trough moving slowly eastward across south TX. Area VWPs depict rather strong southerly low-level flow, with some low-level hodograph curvature implied where surface winds remain backed out of the southeast. MLCAPE may gradually increase near/above 500 J/kg into late morning and this afternoon, with continued storm development possible within the moist and uncapped environment. While deep-layer shear will remain relatively modest, effective SRH of 100-200 m2/s2 will support occasional storm organization. Given the relatively favorable low-level shear/SRH and rich boundary-layer moisture, a tornado cannot be ruled out with any sustained cells, while locally damaging gusts will be possible with any stronger cells/clusters. Watch issuance is unlikely in the short term due to the isolated nature of the threat, but trends will be monitored for the potential of stronger diurnal heating/destabilization and a locally greater threat into the afternoon. ..Dean/Smith.. 03/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX... LAT...LON 28909546 30769526 32039493 32459449 32289335 31929335 31089320 30499319 30009323 29389344 29149377 28909546 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...EASTERN KANSAS...WESTERN/CENTRAL MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from northern Oklahoma into the Lower Missouri Valley on Saturday evening/night. Large to very large hail should be the primary hazard, but a couple of severe gusts and possibly a tornado or two may occur. ...Synopsis... The upper-level pattern across the Rockies and Plains will be somewhat disorganized. However, two low-amplitude shortwave troughs are expected to eject into the Plains during the period. At the surface, an initial surface cyclone in western Kansas will evolve into two distinct lows as the two shortwave troughs eject in succession. One low will move through the lower Missouri/mid-Mississippi Valleys while the other will shift through western/central Oklahoma before weakening by Sunday morning. ...Eastern Kansas/western/central Missouri/northern Oklahoma... Dewpoints should increase ahead of the dryline/cold front during the day. Most model guidance suggests upper 50s to low 60s F will be possible. Confidence in storm development is highest in these areas. Forcing for ascent from the secondary shortwave trough, surface low/dryline, and the cold front should promote widely scattered to scattered storms initially from north-central Oklahoma into northeast Kansas. Effective shear will be strong enough for supercells. Near the triple point into southeast Kansas, supercell structures have potential to last longer into the evening given the more orthogonal shear vector orientation to the dryline. From the Flint Hills into northeast Kansas, supercells would likely persist for a short period. Very-large hail is possible with any supercell, but will become less likely with time as storms will tend to congeal along the cold front in eastern Kansas. Given that the boundary layer will be rather well-mixed and the low-level jet will increase during the evening, some upscale growth into one or more clusters seems probable. Large to very-large hail will be the primary threat. Isolated severe/damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado or two are also possible. The primary area of greater tornado risk, conditional on supercell storm mode, will likely be from northeast Oklahoma into southeast Kansas where low-level hodographs will be more favorably curved/enlarged. There is some question how far east strong/severe storms will persist into Missouri. The current Slight risk has been maintained as is, but model trends will continue to be monitored. ...Central/western Oklahoma into Central Texas... In Oklahoma, capping from an elevated mixed layer should suppress convection along the dryline through the afternoon. With 850-700 mb winds generally veered in the vicinity of the dryline, it becomes rather uncertain if convection will be able to initiate given parcels short residence time in the narrow zone of ascent. Furthermore, mid-level ascent will not arrive until after sunset. Models continue to show a very weak signal for any development as a result. Should a storm or two manage to develop, the environment will be conditionally favorable for supercells capable of large/very-large hail, severe winds, and perhaps a tornado. Farther south into Texas, a similarly capped environment will exist. Stronger heating may lead to a few convection initiation attempts along the dryline (a scenario hinted at by the ECMWF/GFS as well as some CAMS). Additional potential will exist in far southern Oklahoma/North Texas near a triple point feature along with a strengthening low-level jet core. Isolated large to very-large hail and severe gusts would be the primary threats with this activity, should it develop. ...Lower Missouri into mid-Mississippi Valley... The lead shortwave will promote a surface low to deepen in the Kansas City vicinity and track roughly north-northeastward through the evening. A few, likely elevated, storms could produce large hail given the steep lapse rates aloft. An isolated strong/damaging gust is also possible but should be spatially limited and conditional on a more organized cluster developing. The northern and eastern extent of the threat are the most uncertain for these region. ..Wendt.. 03/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...EASTERN KANSAS...WESTERN/CENTRAL MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from northern Oklahoma into the Lower Missouri Valley on Saturday evening/night. Large to very large hail should be the primary hazard, but a couple of severe gusts and possibly a tornado or two may occur. ...Synopsis... The upper-level pattern across the Rockies and Plains will be somewhat disorganized. However, two low-amplitude shortwave troughs are expected to eject into the Plains during the period. At the surface, an initial surface cyclone in western Kansas will evolve into two distinct lows as the two shortwave troughs eject in succession. One low will move through the lower Missouri/mid-Mississippi Valleys while the other will shift through western/central Oklahoma before weakening by Sunday morning. ...Eastern Kansas/western/central Missouri/northern Oklahoma... Dewpoints should increase ahead of the dryline/cold front during the day. Most model guidance suggests upper 50s to low 60s F will be possible. Confidence in storm development is highest in these areas. Forcing for ascent from the secondary shortwave trough, surface low/dryline, and the cold front should promote widely scattered to scattered storms initially from north-central Oklahoma into northeast Kansas. Effective shear will be strong enough for supercells. Near the triple point into southeast Kansas, supercell structures have potential to last longer into the evening given the more orthogonal shear vector orientation to the dryline. From the Flint Hills into northeast Kansas, supercells would likely persist for a short period. Very-large hail is possible with any supercell, but will become less likely with time as storms will tend to congeal along the cold front in eastern Kansas. Given that the boundary layer will be rather well-mixed and the low-level jet will increase during the evening, some upscale growth into one or more clusters seems probable. Large to very-large hail will be the primary threat. Isolated severe/damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado or two are also possible. The primary area of greater tornado risk, conditional on supercell storm mode, will likely be from northeast Oklahoma into southeast Kansas where low-level hodographs will be more favorably curved/enlarged. There is some question how far east strong/severe storms will persist into Missouri. The current Slight risk has been maintained as is, but model trends will continue to be monitored. ...Central/western Oklahoma into Central Texas... In Oklahoma, capping from an elevated mixed layer should suppress convection along the dryline through the afternoon. With 850-700 mb winds generally veered in the vicinity of the dryline, it becomes rather uncertain if convection will be able to initiate given parcels short residence time in the narrow zone of ascent. Furthermore, mid-level ascent will not arrive until after sunset. Models continue to show a very weak signal for any development as a result. Should a storm or two manage to develop, the environment will be conditionally favorable for supercells capable of large/very-large hail, severe winds, and perhaps a tornado. Farther south into Texas, a similarly capped environment will exist. Stronger heating may lead to a few convection initiation attempts along the dryline (a scenario hinted at by the ECMWF/GFS as well as some CAMS). Additional potential will exist in far southern Oklahoma/North Texas near a triple point feature along with a strengthening low-level jet core. Isolated large to very-large hail and severe gusts would be the primary threats with this activity, should it develop. ...Lower Missouri into mid-Mississippi Valley... The lead shortwave will promote a surface low to deepen in the Kansas City vicinity and track roughly north-northeastward through the evening. A few, likely elevated, storms could produce large hail given the steep lapse rates aloft. An isolated strong/damaging gust is also possible but should be spatially limited and conditional on a more organized cluster developing. The northern and eastern extent of the threat are the most uncertain for these region. ..Wendt.. 03/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...EASTERN KANSAS...WESTERN/CENTRAL MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from northern Oklahoma into the Lower Missouri Valley on Saturday evening/night. Large to very large hail should be the primary hazard, but a couple of severe gusts and possibly a tornado or two may occur. ...Synopsis... The upper-level pattern across the Rockies and Plains will be somewhat disorganized. However, two low-amplitude shortwave troughs are expected to eject into the Plains during the period. At the surface, an initial surface cyclone in western Kansas will evolve into two distinct lows as the two shortwave troughs eject in succession. One low will move through the lower Missouri/mid-Mississippi Valleys while the other will shift through western/central Oklahoma before weakening by Sunday morning. ...Eastern Kansas/western/central Missouri/northern Oklahoma... Dewpoints should increase ahead of the dryline/cold front during the day. Most model guidance suggests upper 50s to low 60s F will be possible. Confidence in storm development is highest in these areas. Forcing for ascent from the secondary shortwave trough, surface low/dryline, and the cold front should promote widely scattered to scattered storms initially from north-central Oklahoma into northeast Kansas. Effective shear will be strong enough for supercells. Near the triple point into southeast Kansas, supercell structures have potential to last longer into the evening given the more orthogonal shear vector orientation to the dryline. From the Flint Hills into northeast Kansas, supercells would likely persist for a short period. Very-large hail is possible with any supercell, but will become less likely with time as storms will tend to congeal along the cold front in eastern Kansas. Given that the boundary layer will be rather well-mixed and the low-level jet will increase during the evening, some upscale growth into one or more clusters seems probable. Large to very-large hail will be the primary threat. Isolated severe/damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado or two are also possible. The primary area of greater tornado risk, conditional on supercell storm mode, will likely be from northeast Oklahoma into southeast Kansas where low-level hodographs will be more favorably curved/enlarged. There is some question how far east strong/severe storms will persist into Missouri. The current Slight risk has been maintained as is, but model trends will continue to be monitored. ...Central/western Oklahoma into Central Texas... In Oklahoma, capping from an elevated mixed layer should suppress convection along the dryline through the afternoon. With 850-700 mb winds generally veered in the vicinity of the dryline, it becomes rather uncertain if convection will be able to initiate given parcels short residence time in the narrow zone of ascent. Furthermore, mid-level ascent will not arrive until after sunset. Models continue to show a very weak signal for any development as a result. Should a storm or two manage to develop, the environment will be conditionally favorable for supercells capable of large/very-large hail, severe winds, and perhaps a tornado. Farther south into Texas, a similarly capped environment will exist. Stronger heating may lead to a few convection initiation attempts along the dryline (a scenario hinted at by the ECMWF/GFS as well as some CAMS). Additional potential will exist in far southern Oklahoma/North Texas near a triple point feature along with a strengthening low-level jet core. Isolated large to very-large hail and severe gusts would be the primary threats with this activity, should it develop. ...Lower Missouri into mid-Mississippi Valley... The lead shortwave will promote a surface low to deepen in the Kansas City vicinity and track roughly north-northeastward through the evening. A few, likely elevated, storms could produce large hail given the steep lapse rates aloft. An isolated strong/damaging gust is also possible but should be spatially limited and conditional on a more organized cluster developing. The northern and eastern extent of the threat are the most uncertain for these region. ..Wendt.. 03/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...EASTERN KANSAS...WESTERN/CENTRAL MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from northern Oklahoma into the Lower Missouri Valley on Saturday evening/night. Large to very large hail should be the primary hazard, but a couple of severe gusts and possibly a tornado or two may occur. ...Synopsis... The upper-level pattern across the Rockies and Plains will be somewhat disorganized. However, two low-amplitude shortwave troughs are expected to eject into the Plains during the period. At the surface, an initial surface cyclone in western Kansas will evolve into two distinct lows as the two shortwave troughs eject in succession. One low will move through the lower Missouri/mid-Mississippi Valleys while the other will shift through western/central Oklahoma before weakening by Sunday morning. ...Eastern Kansas/western/central Missouri/northern Oklahoma... Dewpoints should increase ahead of the dryline/cold front during the day. Most model guidance suggests upper 50s to low 60s F will be possible. Confidence in storm development is highest in these areas. Forcing for ascent from the secondary shortwave trough, surface low/dryline, and the cold front should promote widely scattered to scattered storms initially from north-central Oklahoma into northeast Kansas. Effective shear will be strong enough for supercells. Near the triple point into southeast Kansas, supercell structures have potential to last longer into the evening given the more orthogonal shear vector orientation to the dryline. From the Flint Hills into northeast Kansas, supercells would likely persist for a short period. Very-large hail is possible with any supercell, but will become less likely with time as storms will tend to congeal along the cold front in eastern Kansas. Given that the boundary layer will be rather well-mixed and the low-level jet will increase during the evening, some upscale growth into one or more clusters seems probable. Large to very-large hail will be the primary threat. Isolated severe/damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado or two are also possible. The primary area of greater tornado risk, conditional on supercell storm mode, will likely be from northeast Oklahoma into southeast Kansas where low-level hodographs will be more favorably curved/enlarged. There is some question how far east strong/severe storms will persist into Missouri. The current Slight risk has been maintained as is, but model trends will continue to be monitored. ...Central/western Oklahoma into Central Texas... In Oklahoma, capping from an elevated mixed layer should suppress convection along the dryline through the afternoon. With 850-700 mb winds generally veered in the vicinity of the dryline, it becomes rather uncertain if convection will be able to initiate given parcels short residence time in the narrow zone of ascent. Furthermore, mid-level ascent will not arrive until after sunset. Models continue to show a very weak signal for any development as a result. Should a storm or two manage to develop, the environment will be conditionally favorable for supercells capable of large/very-large hail, severe winds, and perhaps a tornado. Farther south into Texas, a similarly capped environment will exist. Stronger heating may lead to a few convection initiation attempts along the dryline (a scenario hinted at by the ECMWF/GFS as well as some CAMS). Additional potential will exist in far southern Oklahoma/North Texas near a triple point feature along with a strengthening low-level jet core. Isolated large to very-large hail and severe gusts would be the primary threats with this activity, should it develop. ...Lower Missouri into mid-Mississippi Valley... The lead shortwave will promote a surface low to deepen in the Kansas City vicinity and track roughly north-northeastward through the evening. A few, likely elevated, storms could produce large hail given the steep lapse rates aloft. An isolated strong/damaging gust is also possible but should be spatially limited and conditional on a more organized cluster developing. The northern and eastern extent of the threat are the most uncertain for these region. ..Wendt.. 03/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...EASTERN KANSAS...WESTERN/CENTRAL MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from northern Oklahoma into the Lower Missouri Valley on Saturday evening/night. Large to very large hail should be the primary hazard, but a couple of severe gusts and possibly a tornado or two may occur. ...Synopsis... The upper-level pattern across the Rockies and Plains will be somewhat disorganized. However, two low-amplitude shortwave troughs are expected to eject into the Plains during the period. At the surface, an initial surface cyclone in western Kansas will evolve into two distinct lows as the two shortwave troughs eject in succession. One low will move through the lower Missouri/mid-Mississippi Valleys while the other will shift through western/central Oklahoma before weakening by Sunday morning. ...Eastern Kansas/western/central Missouri/northern Oklahoma... Dewpoints should increase ahead of the dryline/cold front during the day. Most model guidance suggests upper 50s to low 60s F will be possible. Confidence in storm development is highest in these areas. Forcing for ascent from the secondary shortwave trough, surface low/dryline, and the cold front should promote widely scattered to scattered storms initially from north-central Oklahoma into northeast Kansas. Effective shear will be strong enough for supercells. Near the triple point into southeast Kansas, supercell structures have potential to last longer into the evening given the more orthogonal shear vector orientation to the dryline. From the Flint Hills into northeast Kansas, supercells would likely persist for a short period. Very-large hail is possible with any supercell, but will become less likely with time as storms will tend to congeal along the cold front in eastern Kansas. Given that the boundary layer will be rather well-mixed and the low-level jet will increase during the evening, some upscale growth into one or more clusters seems probable. Large to very-large hail will be the primary threat. Isolated severe/damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado or two are also possible. The primary area of greater tornado risk, conditional on supercell storm mode, will likely be from northeast Oklahoma into southeast Kansas where low-level hodographs will be more favorably curved/enlarged. There is some question how far east strong/severe storms will persist into Missouri. The current Slight risk has been maintained as is, but model trends will continue to be monitored. ...Central/western Oklahoma into Central Texas... In Oklahoma, capping from an elevated mixed layer should suppress convection along the dryline through the afternoon. With 850-700 mb winds generally veered in the vicinity of the dryline, it becomes rather uncertain if convection will be able to initiate given parcels short residence time in the narrow zone of ascent. Furthermore, mid-level ascent will not arrive until after sunset. Models continue to show a very weak signal for any development as a result. Should a storm or two manage to develop, the environment will be conditionally favorable for supercells capable of large/very-large hail, severe winds, and perhaps a tornado. Farther south into Texas, a similarly capped environment will exist. Stronger heating may lead to a few convection initiation attempts along the dryline (a scenario hinted at by the ECMWF/GFS as well as some CAMS). Additional potential will exist in far southern Oklahoma/North Texas near a triple point feature along with a strengthening low-level jet core. Isolated large to very-large hail and severe gusts would be the primary threats with this activity, should it develop. ...Lower Missouri into mid-Mississippi Valley... The lead shortwave will promote a surface low to deepen in the Kansas City vicinity and track roughly north-northeastward through the evening. A few, likely elevated, storms could produce large hail given the steep lapse rates aloft. An isolated strong/damaging gust is also possible but should be spatially limited and conditional on a more organized cluster developing. The northern and eastern extent of the threat are the most uncertain for these region. ..Wendt.. 03/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...EASTERN KANSAS...WESTERN/CENTRAL MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from northern Oklahoma into the Lower Missouri Valley on Saturday evening/night. Large to very large hail should be the primary hazard, but a couple of severe gusts and possibly a tornado or two may occur. ...Synopsis... The upper-level pattern across the Rockies and Plains will be somewhat disorganized. However, two low-amplitude shortwave troughs are expected to eject into the Plains during the period. At the surface, an initial surface cyclone in western Kansas will evolve into two distinct lows as the two shortwave troughs eject in succession. One low will move through the lower Missouri/mid-Mississippi Valleys while the other will shift through western/central Oklahoma before weakening by Sunday morning. ...Eastern Kansas/western/central Missouri/northern Oklahoma... Dewpoints should increase ahead of the dryline/cold front during the day. Most model guidance suggests upper 50s to low 60s F will be possible. Confidence in storm development is highest in these areas. Forcing for ascent from the secondary shortwave trough, surface low/dryline, and the cold front should promote widely scattered to scattered storms initially from north-central Oklahoma into northeast Kansas. Effective shear will be strong enough for supercells. Near the triple point into southeast Kansas, supercell structures have potential to last longer into the evening given the more orthogonal shear vector orientation to the dryline. From the Flint Hills into northeast Kansas, supercells would likely persist for a short period. Very-large hail is possible with any supercell, but will become less likely with time as storms will tend to congeal along the cold front in eastern Kansas. Given that the boundary layer will be rather well-mixed and the low-level jet will increase during the evening, some upscale growth into one or more clusters seems probable. Large to very-large hail will be the primary threat. Isolated severe/damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado or two are also possible. The primary area of greater tornado risk, conditional on supercell storm mode, will likely be from northeast Oklahoma into southeast Kansas where low-level hodographs will be more favorably curved/enlarged. There is some question how far east strong/severe storms will persist into Missouri. The current Slight risk has been maintained as is, but model trends will continue to be monitored. ...Central/western Oklahoma into Central Texas... In Oklahoma, capping from an elevated mixed layer should suppress convection along the dryline through the afternoon. With 850-700 mb winds generally veered in the vicinity of the dryline, it becomes rather uncertain if convection will be able to initiate given parcels short residence time in the narrow zone of ascent. Furthermore, mid-level ascent will not arrive until after sunset. Models continue to show a very weak signal for any development as a result. Should a storm or two manage to develop, the environment will be conditionally favorable for supercells capable of large/very-large hail, severe winds, and perhaps a tornado. Farther south into Texas, a similarly capped environment will exist. Stronger heating may lead to a few convection initiation attempts along the dryline (a scenario hinted at by the ECMWF/GFS as well as some CAMS). Additional potential will exist in far southern Oklahoma/North Texas near a triple point feature along with a strengthening low-level jet core. Isolated large to very-large hail and severe gusts would be the primary threats with this activity, should it develop. ...Lower Missouri into mid-Mississippi Valley... The lead shortwave will promote a surface low to deepen in the Kansas City vicinity and track roughly north-northeastward through the evening. A few, likely elevated, storms could produce large hail given the steep lapse rates aloft. An isolated strong/damaging gust is also possible but should be spatially limited and conditional on a more organized cluster developing. The northern and eastern extent of the threat are the most uncertain for these region. ..Wendt.. 03/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...EASTERN KANSAS...WESTERN/CENTRAL MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from northern Oklahoma into the Lower Missouri Valley on Saturday evening/night. Large to very large hail should be the primary hazard, but a couple of severe gusts and possibly a tornado or two may occur. ...Synopsis... The upper-level pattern across the Rockies and Plains will be somewhat disorganized. However, two low-amplitude shortwave troughs are expected to eject into the Plains during the period. At the surface, an initial surface cyclone in western Kansas will evolve into two distinct lows as the two shortwave troughs eject in succession. One low will move through the lower Missouri/mid-Mississippi Valleys while the other will shift through western/central Oklahoma before weakening by Sunday morning. ...Eastern Kansas/western/central Missouri/northern Oklahoma... Dewpoints should increase ahead of the dryline/cold front during the day. Most model guidance suggests upper 50s to low 60s F will be possible. Confidence in storm development is highest in these areas. Forcing for ascent from the secondary shortwave trough, surface low/dryline, and the cold front should promote widely scattered to scattered storms initially from north-central Oklahoma into northeast Kansas. Effective shear will be strong enough for supercells. Near the triple point into southeast Kansas, supercell structures have potential to last longer into the evening given the more orthogonal shear vector orientation to the dryline. From the Flint Hills into northeast Kansas, supercells would likely persist for a short period. Very-large hail is possible with any supercell, but will become less likely with time as storms will tend to congeal along the cold front in eastern Kansas. Given that the boundary layer will be rather well-mixed and the low-level jet will increase during the evening, some upscale growth into one or more clusters seems probable. Large to very-large hail will be the primary threat. Isolated severe/damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado or two are also possible. The primary area of greater tornado risk, conditional on supercell storm mode, will likely be from northeast Oklahoma into southeast Kansas where low-level hodographs will be more favorably curved/enlarged. There is some question how far east strong/severe storms will persist into Missouri. The current Slight risk has been maintained as is, but model trends will continue to be monitored. ...Central/western Oklahoma into Central Texas... In Oklahoma, capping from an elevated mixed layer should suppress convection along the dryline through the afternoon. With 850-700 mb winds generally veered in the vicinity of the dryline, it becomes rather uncertain if convection will be able to initiate given parcels short residence time in the narrow zone of ascent. Furthermore, mid-level ascent will not arrive until after sunset. Models continue to show a very weak signal for any development as a result. Should a storm or two manage to develop, the environment will be conditionally favorable for supercells capable of large/very-large hail, severe winds, and perhaps a tornado. Farther south into Texas, a similarly capped environment will exist. Stronger heating may lead to a few convection initiation attempts along the dryline (a scenario hinted at by the ECMWF/GFS as well as some CAMS). Additional potential will exist in far southern Oklahoma/North Texas near a triple point feature along with a strengthening low-level jet core. Isolated large to very-large hail and severe gusts would be the primary threats with this activity, should it develop. ...Lower Missouri into mid-Mississippi Valley... The lead shortwave will promote a surface low to deepen in the Kansas City vicinity and track roughly north-northeastward through the evening. A few, likely elevated, storms could produce large hail given the steep lapse rates aloft. An isolated strong/damaging gust is also possible but should be spatially limited and conditional on a more organized cluster developing. The northern and eastern extent of the threat are the most uncertain for these region. ..Wendt.. 03/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...EASTERN KANSAS...WESTERN/CENTRAL MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from northern Oklahoma into the Lower Missouri Valley on Saturday evening/night. Large to very large hail should be the primary hazard, but a couple of severe gusts and possibly a tornado or two may occur. ...Synopsis... The upper-level pattern across the Rockies and Plains will be somewhat disorganized. However, two low-amplitude shortwave troughs are expected to eject into the Plains during the period. At the surface, an initial surface cyclone in western Kansas will evolve into two distinct lows as the two shortwave troughs eject in succession. One low will move through the lower Missouri/mid-Mississippi Valleys while the other will shift through western/central Oklahoma before weakening by Sunday morning. ...Eastern Kansas/western/central Missouri/northern Oklahoma... Dewpoints should increase ahead of the dryline/cold front during the day. Most model guidance suggests upper 50s to low 60s F will be possible. Confidence in storm development is highest in these areas. Forcing for ascent from the secondary shortwave trough, surface low/dryline, and the cold front should promote widely scattered to scattered storms initially from north-central Oklahoma into northeast Kansas. Effective shear will be strong enough for supercells. Near the triple point into southeast Kansas, supercell structures have potential to last longer into the evening given the more orthogonal shear vector orientation to the dryline. From the Flint Hills into northeast Kansas, supercells would likely persist for a short period. Very-large hail is possible with any supercell, but will become less likely with time as storms will tend to congeal along the cold front in eastern Kansas. Given that the boundary layer will be rather well-mixed and the low-level jet will increase during the evening, some upscale growth into one or more clusters seems probable. Large to very-large hail will be the primary threat. Isolated severe/damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado or two are also possible. The primary area of greater tornado risk, conditional on supercell storm mode, will likely be from northeast Oklahoma into southeast Kansas where low-level hodographs will be more favorably curved/enlarged. There is some question how far east strong/severe storms will persist into Missouri. The current Slight risk has been maintained as is, but model trends will continue to be monitored. ...Central/western Oklahoma into Central Texas... In Oklahoma, capping from an elevated mixed layer should suppress convection along the dryline through the afternoon. With 850-700 mb winds generally veered in the vicinity of the dryline, it becomes rather uncertain if convection will be able to initiate given parcels short residence time in the narrow zone of ascent. Furthermore, mid-level ascent will not arrive until after sunset. Models continue to show a very weak signal for any development as a result. Should a storm or two manage to develop, the environment will be conditionally favorable for supercells capable of large/very-large hail, severe winds, and perhaps a tornado. Farther south into Texas, a similarly capped environment will exist. Stronger heating may lead to a few convection initiation attempts along the dryline (a scenario hinted at by the ECMWF/GFS as well as some CAMS). Additional potential will exist in far southern Oklahoma/North Texas near a triple point feature along with a strengthening low-level jet core. Isolated large to very-large hail and severe gusts would be the primary threats with this activity, should it develop. ...Lower Missouri into mid-Mississippi Valley... The lead shortwave will promote a surface low to deepen in the Kansas City vicinity and track roughly north-northeastward through the evening. A few, likely elevated, storms could produce large hail given the steep lapse rates aloft. An isolated strong/damaging gust is also possible but should be spatially limited and conditional on a more organized cluster developing. The northern and eastern extent of the threat are the most uncertain for these region. ..Wendt.. 03/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...EASTERN KANSAS...WESTERN/CENTRAL MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from northern Oklahoma into the Lower Missouri Valley on Saturday evening/night. Large to very large hail should be the primary hazard, but a couple of severe gusts and possibly a tornado or two may occur. ...Synopsis... The upper-level pattern across the Rockies and Plains will be somewhat disorganized. However, two low-amplitude shortwave troughs are expected to eject into the Plains during the period. At the surface, an initial surface cyclone in western Kansas will evolve into two distinct lows as the two shortwave troughs eject in succession. One low will move through the lower Missouri/mid-Mississippi Valleys while the other will shift through western/central Oklahoma before weakening by Sunday morning. ...Eastern Kansas/western/central Missouri/northern Oklahoma... Dewpoints should increase ahead of the dryline/cold front during the day. Most model guidance suggests upper 50s to low 60s F will be possible. Confidence in storm development is highest in these areas. Forcing for ascent from the secondary shortwave trough, surface low/dryline, and the cold front should promote widely scattered to scattered storms initially from north-central Oklahoma into northeast Kansas. Effective shear will be strong enough for supercells. Near the triple point into southeast Kansas, supercell structures have potential to last longer into the evening given the more orthogonal shear vector orientation to the dryline. From the Flint Hills into northeast Kansas, supercells would likely persist for a short period. Very-large hail is possible with any supercell, but will become less likely with time as storms will tend to congeal along the cold front in eastern Kansas. Given that the boundary layer will be rather well-mixed and the low-level jet will increase during the evening, some upscale growth into one or more clusters seems probable. Large to very-large hail will be the primary threat. Isolated severe/damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado or two are also possible. The primary area of greater tornado risk, conditional on supercell storm mode, will likely be from northeast Oklahoma into southeast Kansas where low-level hodographs will be more favorably curved/enlarged. There is some question how far east strong/severe storms will persist into Missouri. The current Slight risk has been maintained as is, but model trends will continue to be monitored. ...Central/western Oklahoma into Central Texas... In Oklahoma, capping from an elevated mixed layer should suppress convection along the dryline through the afternoon. With 850-700 mb winds generally veered in the vicinity of the dryline, it becomes rather uncertain if convection will be able to initiate given parcels short residence time in the narrow zone of ascent. Furthermore, mid-level ascent will not arrive until after sunset. Models continue to show a very weak signal for any development as a result. Should a storm or two manage to develop, the environment will be conditionally favorable for supercells capable of large/very-large hail, severe winds, and perhaps a tornado. Farther south into Texas, a similarly capped environment will exist. Stronger heating may lead to a few convection initiation attempts along the dryline (a scenario hinted at by the ECMWF/GFS as well as some CAMS). Additional potential will exist in far southern Oklahoma/North Texas near a triple point feature along with a strengthening low-level jet core. Isolated large to very-large hail and severe gusts would be the primary threats with this activity, should it develop. ...Lower Missouri into mid-Mississippi Valley... The lead shortwave will promote a surface low to deepen in the Kansas City vicinity and track roughly north-northeastward through the evening. A few, likely elevated, storms could produce large hail given the steep lapse rates aloft. An isolated strong/damaging gust is also possible but should be spatially limited and conditional on a more organized cluster developing. The northern and eastern extent of the threat are the most uncertain for these region. ..Wendt.. 03/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...EASTERN KANSAS...WESTERN/CENTRAL MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from northern Oklahoma into the Lower Missouri Valley on Saturday evening/night. Large to very large hail should be the primary hazard, but a couple of severe gusts and possibly a tornado or two may occur. ...Synopsis... The upper-level pattern across the Rockies and Plains will be somewhat disorganized. However, two low-amplitude shortwave troughs are expected to eject into the Plains during the period. At the surface, an initial surface cyclone in western Kansas will evolve into two distinct lows as the two shortwave troughs eject in succession. One low will move through the lower Missouri/mid-Mississippi Valleys while the other will shift through western/central Oklahoma before weakening by Sunday morning. ...Eastern Kansas/western/central Missouri/northern Oklahoma... Dewpoints should increase ahead of the dryline/cold front during the day. Most model guidance suggests upper 50s to low 60s F will be possible. Confidence in storm development is highest in these areas. Forcing for ascent from the secondary shortwave trough, surface low/dryline, and the cold front should promote widely scattered to scattered storms initially from north-central Oklahoma into northeast Kansas. Effective shear will be strong enough for supercells. Near the triple point into southeast Kansas, supercell structures have potential to last longer into the evening given the more orthogonal shear vector orientation to the dryline. From the Flint Hills into northeast Kansas, supercells would likely persist for a short period. Very-large hail is possible with any supercell, but will become less likely with time as storms will tend to congeal along the cold front in eastern Kansas. Given that the boundary layer will be rather well-mixed and the low-level jet will increase during the evening, some upscale growth into one or more clusters seems probable. Large to very-large hail will be the primary threat. Isolated severe/damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado or two are also possible. The primary area of greater tornado risk, conditional on supercell storm mode, will likely be from northeast Oklahoma into southeast Kansas where low-level hodographs will be more favorably curved/enlarged. There is some question how far east strong/severe storms will persist into Missouri. The current Slight risk has been maintained as is, but model trends will continue to be monitored. ...Central/western Oklahoma into Central Texas... In Oklahoma, capping from an elevated mixed layer should suppress convection along the dryline through the afternoon. With 850-700 mb winds generally veered in the vicinity of the dryline, it becomes rather uncertain if convection will be able to initiate given parcels short residence time in the narrow zone of ascent. Furthermore, mid-level ascent will not arrive until after sunset. Models continue to show a very weak signal for any development as a result. Should a storm or two manage to develop, the environment will be conditionally favorable for supercells capable of large/very-large hail, severe winds, and perhaps a tornado. Farther south into Texas, a similarly capped environment will exist. Stronger heating may lead to a few convection initiation attempts along the dryline (a scenario hinted at by the ECMWF/GFS as well as some CAMS). Additional potential will exist in far southern Oklahoma/North Texas near a triple point feature along with a strengthening low-level jet core. Isolated large to very-large hail and severe gusts would be the primary threats with this activity, should it develop. ...Lower Missouri into mid-Mississippi Valley... The lead shortwave will promote a surface low to deepen in the Kansas City vicinity and track roughly north-northeastward through the evening. A few, likely elevated, storms could produce large hail given the steep lapse rates aloft. An isolated strong/damaging gust is also possible but should be spatially limited and conditional on a more organized cluster developing. The northern and eastern extent of the threat are the most uncertain for these region. ..Wendt.. 03/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...EASTERN KANSAS...WESTERN/CENTRAL MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from northern Oklahoma into the Lower Missouri Valley on Saturday evening/night. Large to very large hail should be the primary hazard, but a couple of severe gusts and possibly a tornado or two may occur. ...Synopsis... The upper-level pattern across the Rockies and Plains will be somewhat disorganized. However, two low-amplitude shortwave troughs are expected to eject into the Plains during the period. At the surface, an initial surface cyclone in western Kansas will evolve into two distinct lows as the two shortwave troughs eject in succession. One low will move through the lower Missouri/mid-Mississippi Valleys while the other will shift through western/central Oklahoma before weakening by Sunday morning. ...Eastern Kansas/western/central Missouri/northern Oklahoma... Dewpoints should increase ahead of the dryline/cold front during the day. Most model guidance suggests upper 50s to low 60s F will be possible. Confidence in storm development is highest in these areas. Forcing for ascent from the secondary shortwave trough, surface low/dryline, and the cold front should promote widely scattered to scattered storms initially from north-central Oklahoma into northeast Kansas. Effective shear will be strong enough for supercells. Near the triple point into southeast Kansas, supercell structures have potential to last longer into the evening given the more orthogonal shear vector orientation to the dryline. From the Flint Hills into northeast Kansas, supercells would likely persist for a short period. Very-large hail is possible with any supercell, but will become less likely with time as storms will tend to congeal along the cold front in eastern Kansas. Given that the boundary layer will be rather well-mixed and the low-level jet will increase during the evening, some upscale growth into one or more clusters seems probable. Large to very-large hail will be the primary threat. Isolated severe/damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado or two are also possible. The primary area of greater tornado risk, conditional on supercell storm mode, will likely be from northeast Oklahoma into southeast Kansas where low-level hodographs will be more favorably curved/enlarged. There is some question how far east strong/severe storms will persist into Missouri. The current Slight risk has been maintained as is, but model trends will continue to be monitored. ...Central/western Oklahoma into Central Texas... In Oklahoma, capping from an elevated mixed layer should suppress convection along the dryline through the afternoon. With 850-700 mb winds generally veered in the vicinity of the dryline, it becomes rather uncertain if convection will be able to initiate given parcels short residence time in the narrow zone of ascent. Furthermore, mid-level ascent will not arrive until after sunset. Models continue to show a very weak signal for any development as a result. Should a storm or two manage to develop, the environment will be conditionally favorable for supercells capable of large/very-large hail, severe winds, and perhaps a tornado. Farther south into Texas, a similarly capped environment will exist. Stronger heating may lead to a few convection initiation attempts along the dryline (a scenario hinted at by the ECMWF/GFS as well as some CAMS). Additional potential will exist in far southern Oklahoma/North Texas near a triple point feature along with a strengthening low-level jet core. Isolated large to very-large hail and severe gusts would be the primary threats with this activity, should it develop. ...Lower Missouri into mid-Mississippi Valley... The lead shortwave will promote a surface low to deepen in the Kansas City vicinity and track roughly north-northeastward through the evening. A few, likely elevated, storms could produce large hail given the steep lapse rates aloft. An isolated strong/damaging gust is also possible but should be spatially limited and conditional on a more organized cluster developing. The northern and eastern extent of the threat are the most uncertain for these region. ..Wendt.. 03/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...EASTERN KANSAS...WESTERN/CENTRAL MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from northern Oklahoma into the Lower Missouri Valley on Saturday evening/night. Large to very large hail should be the primary hazard, but a couple of severe gusts and possibly a tornado or two may occur. ...Synopsis... The upper-level pattern across the Rockies and Plains will be somewhat disorganized. However, two low-amplitude shortwave troughs are expected to eject into the Plains during the period. At the surface, an initial surface cyclone in western Kansas will evolve into two distinct lows as the two shortwave troughs eject in succession. One low will move through the lower Missouri/mid-Mississippi Valleys while the other will shift through western/central Oklahoma before weakening by Sunday morning. ...Eastern Kansas/western/central Missouri/northern Oklahoma... Dewpoints should increase ahead of the dryline/cold front during the day. Most model guidance suggests upper 50s to low 60s F will be possible. Confidence in storm development is highest in these areas. Forcing for ascent from the secondary shortwave trough, surface low/dryline, and the cold front should promote widely scattered to scattered storms initially from north-central Oklahoma into northeast Kansas. Effective shear will be strong enough for supercells. Near the triple point into southeast Kansas, supercell structures have potential to last longer into the evening given the more orthogonal shear vector orientation to the dryline. From the Flint Hills into northeast Kansas, supercells would likely persist for a short period. Very-large hail is possible with any supercell, but will become less likely with time as storms will tend to congeal along the cold front in eastern Kansas. Given that the boundary layer will be rather well-mixed and the low-level jet will increase during the evening, some upscale growth into one or more clusters seems probable. Large to very-large hail will be the primary threat. Isolated severe/damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado or two are also possible. The primary area of greater tornado risk, conditional on supercell storm mode, will likely be from northeast Oklahoma into southeast Kansas where low-level hodographs will be more favorably curved/enlarged. There is some question how far east strong/severe storms will persist into Missouri. The current Slight risk has been maintained as is, but model trends will continue to be monitored. ...Central/western Oklahoma into Central Texas... In Oklahoma, capping from an elevated mixed layer should suppress convection along the dryline through the afternoon. With 850-700 mb winds generally veered in the vicinity of the dryline, it becomes rather uncertain if convection will be able to initiate given parcels short residence time in the narrow zone of ascent. Furthermore, mid-level ascent will not arrive until after sunset. Models continue to show a very weak signal for any development as a result. Should a storm or two manage to develop, the environment will be conditionally favorable for supercells capable of large/very-large hail, severe winds, and perhaps a tornado. Farther south into Texas, a similarly capped environment will exist. Stronger heating may lead to a few convection initiation attempts along the dryline (a scenario hinted at by the ECMWF/GFS as well as some CAMS). Additional potential will exist in far southern Oklahoma/North Texas near a triple point feature along with a strengthening low-level jet core. Isolated large to very-large hail and severe gusts would be the primary threats with this activity, should it develop. ...Lower Missouri into mid-Mississippi Valley... The lead shortwave will promote a surface low to deepen in the Kansas City vicinity and track roughly north-northeastward through the evening. A few, likely elevated, storms could produce large hail given the steep lapse rates aloft. An isolated strong/damaging gust is also possible but should be spatially limited and conditional on a more organized cluster developing. The northern and eastern extent of the threat are the most uncertain for these region. ..Wendt.. 03/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...EASTERN KANSAS...WESTERN/CENTRAL MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from northern Oklahoma into the Lower Missouri Valley on Saturday evening/night. Large to very large hail should be the primary hazard, but a couple of severe gusts and possibly a tornado or two may occur. ...Synopsis... The upper-level pattern across the Rockies and Plains will be somewhat disorganized. However, two low-amplitude shortwave troughs are expected to eject into the Plains during the period. At the surface, an initial surface cyclone in western Kansas will evolve into two distinct lows as the two shortwave troughs eject in succession. One low will move through the lower Missouri/mid-Mississippi Valleys while the other will shift through western/central Oklahoma before weakening by Sunday morning. ...Eastern Kansas/western/central Missouri/northern Oklahoma... Dewpoints should increase ahead of the dryline/cold front during the day. Most model guidance suggests upper 50s to low 60s F will be possible. Confidence in storm development is highest in these areas. Forcing for ascent from the secondary shortwave trough, surface low/dryline, and the cold front should promote widely scattered to scattered storms initially from north-central Oklahoma into northeast Kansas. Effective shear will be strong enough for supercells. Near the triple point into southeast Kansas, supercell structures have potential to last longer into the evening given the more orthogonal shear vector orientation to the dryline. From the Flint Hills into northeast Kansas, supercells would likely persist for a short period. Very-large hail is possible with any supercell, but will become less likely with time as storms will tend to congeal along the cold front in eastern Kansas. Given that the boundary layer will be rather well-mixed and the low-level jet will increase during the evening, some upscale growth into one or more clusters seems probable. Large to very-large hail will be the primary threat. Isolated severe/damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado or two are also possible. The primary area of greater tornado risk, conditional on supercell storm mode, will likely be from northeast Oklahoma into southeast Kansas where low-level hodographs will be more favorably curved/enlarged. There is some question how far east strong/severe storms will persist into Missouri. The current Slight risk has been maintained as is, but model trends will continue to be monitored. ...Central/western Oklahoma into Central Texas... In Oklahoma, capping from an elevated mixed layer should suppress convection along the dryline through the afternoon. With 850-700 mb winds generally veered in the vicinity of the dryline, it becomes rather uncertain if convection will be able to initiate given parcels short residence time in the narrow zone of ascent. Furthermore, mid-level ascent will not arrive until after sunset. Models continue to show a very weak signal for any development as a result. Should a storm or two manage to develop, the environment will be conditionally favorable for supercells capable of large/very-large hail, severe winds, and perhaps a tornado. Farther south into Texas, a similarly capped environment will exist. Stronger heating may lead to a few convection initiation attempts along the dryline (a scenario hinted at by the ECMWF/GFS as well as some CAMS). Additional potential will exist in far southern Oklahoma/North Texas near a triple point feature along with a strengthening low-level jet core. Isolated large to very-large hail and severe gusts would be the primary threats with this activity, should it develop. ...Lower Missouri into mid-Mississippi Valley... The lead shortwave will promote a surface low to deepen in the Kansas City vicinity and track roughly north-northeastward through the evening. A few, likely elevated, storms could produce large hail given the steep lapse rates aloft. An isolated strong/damaging gust is also possible but should be spatially limited and conditional on a more organized cluster developing. The northern and eastern extent of the threat are the most uncertain for these region. ..Wendt.. 03/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...EASTERN KANSAS...WESTERN/CENTRAL MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from northern Oklahoma into the Lower Missouri Valley on Saturday evening/night. Large to very large hail should be the primary hazard, but a couple of severe gusts and possibly a tornado or two may occur. ...Synopsis... The upper-level pattern across the Rockies and Plains will be somewhat disorganized. However, two low-amplitude shortwave troughs are expected to eject into the Plains during the period. At the surface, an initial surface cyclone in western Kansas will evolve into two distinct lows as the two shortwave troughs eject in succession. One low will move through the lower Missouri/mid-Mississippi Valleys while the other will shift through western/central Oklahoma before weakening by Sunday morning. ...Eastern Kansas/western/central Missouri/northern Oklahoma... Dewpoints should increase ahead of the dryline/cold front during the day. Most model guidance suggests upper 50s to low 60s F will be possible. Confidence in storm development is highest in these areas. Forcing for ascent from the secondary shortwave trough, surface low/dryline, and the cold front should promote widely scattered to scattered storms initially from north-central Oklahoma into northeast Kansas. Effective shear will be strong enough for supercells. Near the triple point into southeast Kansas, supercell structures have potential to last longer into the evening given the more orthogonal shear vector orientation to the dryline. From the Flint Hills into northeast Kansas, supercells would likely persist for a short period. Very-large hail is possible with any supercell, but will become less likely with time as storms will tend to congeal along the cold front in eastern Kansas. Given that the boundary layer will be rather well-mixed and the low-level jet will increase during the evening, some upscale growth into one or more clusters seems probable. Large to very-large hail will be the primary threat. Isolated severe/damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado or two are also possible. The primary area of greater tornado risk, conditional on supercell storm mode, will likely be from northeast Oklahoma into southeast Kansas where low-level hodographs will be more favorably curved/enlarged. There is some question how far east strong/severe storms will persist into Missouri. The current Slight risk has been maintained as is, but model trends will continue to be monitored. ...Central/western Oklahoma into Central Texas... In Oklahoma, capping from an elevated mixed layer should suppress convection along the dryline through the afternoon. With 850-700 mb winds generally veered in the vicinity of the dryline, it becomes rather uncertain if convection will be able to initiate given parcels short residence time in the narrow zone of ascent. Furthermore, mid-level ascent will not arrive until after sunset. Models continue to show a very weak signal for any development as a result. Should a storm or two manage to develop, the environment will be conditionally favorable for supercells capable of large/very-large hail, severe winds, and perhaps a tornado. Farther south into Texas, a similarly capped environment will exist. Stronger heating may lead to a few convection initiation attempts along the dryline (a scenario hinted at by the ECMWF/GFS as well as some CAMS). Additional potential will exist in far southern Oklahoma/North Texas near a triple point feature along with a strengthening low-level jet core. Isolated large to very-large hail and severe gusts would be the primary threats with this activity, should it develop. ...Lower Missouri into mid-Mississippi Valley... The lead shortwave will promote a surface low to deepen in the Kansas City vicinity and track roughly north-northeastward through the evening. A few, likely elevated, storms could produce large hail given the steep lapse rates aloft. An isolated strong/damaging gust is also possible but should be spatially limited and conditional on a more organized cluster developing. The northern and eastern extent of the threat are the most uncertain for these region. ..Wendt.. 03/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...EASTERN KANSAS...WESTERN/CENTRAL MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from northern Oklahoma into the Lower Missouri Valley on Saturday evening/night. Large to very large hail should be the primary hazard, but a couple of severe gusts and possibly a tornado or two may occur. ...Synopsis... The upper-level pattern across the Rockies and Plains will be somewhat disorganized. However, two low-amplitude shortwave troughs are expected to eject into the Plains during the period. At the surface, an initial surface cyclone in western Kansas will evolve into two distinct lows as the two shortwave troughs eject in succession. One low will move through the lower Missouri/mid-Mississippi Valleys while the other will shift through western/central Oklahoma before weakening by Sunday morning. ...Eastern Kansas/western/central Missouri/northern Oklahoma... Dewpoints should increase ahead of the dryline/cold front during the day. Most model guidance suggests upper 50s to low 60s F will be possible. Confidence in storm development is highest in these areas. Forcing for ascent from the secondary shortwave trough, surface low/dryline, and the cold front should promote widely scattered to scattered storms initially from north-central Oklahoma into northeast Kansas. Effective shear will be strong enough for supercells. Near the triple point into southeast Kansas, supercell structures have potential to last longer into the evening given the more orthogonal shear vector orientation to the dryline. From the Flint Hills into northeast Kansas, supercells would likely persist for a short period. Very-large hail is possible with any supercell, but will become less likely with time as storms will tend to congeal along the cold front in eastern Kansas. Given that the boundary layer will be rather well-mixed and the low-level jet will increase during the evening, some upscale growth into one or more clusters seems probable. Large to very-large hail will be the primary threat. Isolated severe/damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado or two are also possible. The primary area of greater tornado risk, conditional on supercell storm mode, will likely be from northeast Oklahoma into southeast Kansas where low-level hodographs will be more favorably curved/enlarged. There is some question how far east strong/severe storms will persist into Missouri. The current Slight risk has been maintained as is, but model trends will continue to be monitored. ...Central/western Oklahoma into Central Texas... In Oklahoma, capping from an elevated mixed layer should suppress convection along the dryline through the afternoon. With 850-700 mb winds generally veered in the vicinity of the dryline, it becomes rather uncertain if convection will be able to initiate given parcels short residence time in the narrow zone of ascent. Furthermore, mid-level ascent will not arrive until after sunset. Models continue to show a very weak signal for any development as a result. Should a storm or two manage to develop, the environment will be conditionally favorable for supercells capable of large/very-large hail, severe winds, and perhaps a tornado. Farther south into Texas, a similarly capped environment will exist. Stronger heating may lead to a few convection initiation attempts along the dryline (a scenario hinted at by the ECMWF/GFS as well as some CAMS). Additional potential will exist in far southern Oklahoma/North Texas near a triple point feature along with a strengthening low-level jet core. Isolated large to very-large hail and severe gusts would be the primary threats with this activity, should it develop. ...Lower Missouri into mid-Mississippi Valley... The lead shortwave will promote a surface low to deepen in the Kansas City vicinity and track roughly north-northeastward through the evening. A few, likely elevated, storms could produce large hail given the steep lapse rates aloft. An isolated strong/damaging gust is also possible but should be spatially limited and conditional on a more organized cluster developing. The northern and eastern extent of the threat are the most uncertain for these region. ..Wendt.. 03/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...EASTERN KANSAS...WESTERN/CENTRAL MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from northern Oklahoma into the Lower Missouri Valley on Saturday evening/night. Large to very large hail should be the primary hazard, but a couple of severe gusts and possibly a tornado or two may occur. ...Synopsis... The upper-level pattern across the Rockies and Plains will be somewhat disorganized. However, two low-amplitude shortwave troughs are expected to eject into the Plains during the period. At the surface, an initial surface cyclone in western Kansas will evolve into two distinct lows as the two shortwave troughs eject in succession. One low will move through the lower Missouri/mid-Mississippi Valleys while the other will shift through western/central Oklahoma before weakening by Sunday morning. ...Eastern Kansas/western/central Missouri/northern Oklahoma... Dewpoints should increase ahead of the dryline/cold front during the day. Most model guidance suggests upper 50s to low 60s F will be possible. Confidence in storm development is highest in these areas. Forcing for ascent from the secondary shortwave trough, surface low/dryline, and the cold front should promote widely scattered to scattered storms initially from north-central Oklahoma into northeast Kansas. Effective shear will be strong enough for supercells. Near the triple point into southeast Kansas, supercell structures have potential to last longer into the evening given the more orthogonal shear vector orientation to the dryline. From the Flint Hills into northeast Kansas, supercells would likely persist for a short period. Very-large hail is possible with any supercell, but will become less likely with time as storms will tend to congeal along the cold front in eastern Kansas. Given that the boundary layer will be rather well-mixed and the low-level jet will increase during the evening, some upscale growth into one or more clusters seems probable. Large to very-large hail will be the primary threat. Isolated severe/damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado or two are also possible. The primary area of greater tornado risk, conditional on supercell storm mode, will likely be from northeast Oklahoma into southeast Kansas where low-level hodographs will be more favorably curved/enlarged. There is some question how far east strong/severe storms will persist into Missouri. The current Slight risk has been maintained as is, but model trends will continue to be monitored. ...Central/western Oklahoma into Central Texas... In Oklahoma, capping from an elevated mixed layer should suppress convection along the dryline through the afternoon. With 850-700 mb winds generally veered in the vicinity of the dryline, it becomes rather uncertain if convection will be able to initiate given parcels short residence time in the narrow zone of ascent. Furthermore, mid-level ascent will not arrive until after sunset. Models continue to show a very weak signal for any development as a result. Should a storm or two manage to develop, the environment will be conditionally favorable for supercells capable of large/very-large hail, severe winds, and perhaps a tornado. Farther south into Texas, a similarly capped environment will exist. Stronger heating may lead to a few convection initiation attempts along the dryline (a scenario hinted at by the ECMWF/GFS as well as some CAMS). Additional potential will exist in far southern Oklahoma/North Texas near a triple point feature along with a strengthening low-level jet core. Isolated large to very-large hail and severe gusts would be the primary threats with this activity, should it develop. ...Lower Missouri into mid-Mississippi Valley... The lead shortwave will promote a surface low to deepen in the Kansas City vicinity and track roughly north-northeastward through the evening. A few, likely elevated, storms could produce large hail given the steep lapse rates aloft. An isolated strong/damaging gust is also possible but should be spatially limited and conditional on a more organized cluster developing. The northern and eastern extent of the threat are the most uncertain for these region. ..Wendt.. 03/28/2025 Read more

WW 0066 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0066 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

No watches are valid as of Fri Mar 28 17:16:02 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025 Valid 281700Z - 291200Z The primary change to the Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Update was to add Elevated highlights to the lee of the central Appalachians. Here, the latest guidance consensus has trended slightly stronger with surface flow, where southwesterly surface winds may sustain over 15 mph in spots amid 20-35 percent RH. Current observations show mostly clear skies, with RH already dropping to 30 percent amid 20 mph gusts in spots, and these conditions should only be exacerbated with continued diurnal heating. Given the presence of abnormally dry/receptive fuels, the addition of Elevated highlights appears warranted. Elevated highlights were also expanded slightly eastward into the southern High Plains, where the latest guidance consensus depicts 15+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds coinciding with 15-20 percent RH for several hours this afternoon. Otherwise, the previous forecast for the southern High Plains, central Plains, and Florida (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 03/28/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025/ ...Synopsis... A broad large-scale trough will encompass the western CONUS, while an embedded shortwave trough (accompanied by moderate west-southwesterly midlevel flow) advances east-northeastward across the southern/central Rockies. Deep boundary-layer mixing into the strengthening flow aloft will yield 10-15 percent RH and breezy west-southwesterly surface winds across much of NM into southern CO. As a result, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected. A separate embedded shortwave trough will overspread the northern Rockies/High Plains, while a related surface trough deepens over the central Plains. West of the surface trough, downslope flow and a modest pressure gradient will contribute to dry/breezy conditions over portions of NE into SD -- where elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. Farther east, breezy easterly surface winds will develop across the FL Peninsula -- on the southwestern periphery of an expansive surface high over the western Atlantic. Over portions of west-central and southwest FL, a well-mixed boundary layer and the breezy/gusty surface winds will contribute to elevated fire-weather conditions -- given very dry fuels over the area. Over the southern Appalachians and portions of the lower OH Valley, modestly breezy southerly surface winds and around 25-30 percent RH may support localized fire-weather concerns during the afternoon; however, marginal surface winds and RH cast uncertainty on the overall large-fire risk -- precluding highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more