Aggregator

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 AM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS INTO WESTERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central and southern Great Plains into middle Mississippi Valley today through tonight. This may include an organizing cluster of storms across parts of northern Oklahoma and southeastern Kansas through western Missouri this evening into the overnight hours. ...Discussion... Downstream of a blocked regime, including an increasingly prominent mid-level high centered over the western Aleutians, models indicate that a broad, deep mid-level low will continue to evolve across the northeastern Pacific. To the south of this feature, mid-level flow is forecast to intensify in a westerly belt across the southern mid-latitudes, toward the central and southern California coast. This will be preceded inland by a number of weaker perturbations across the southern Great Basin and Rockies, through the Great Plains, where at least a couple may gradually begin to consolidate into larger-scale troughing by 12Z Sunday. A sub-1000 mb low has already formed within surface troughing to the lee of the Colorado Rockies. However, models indicate little, if any, further deepening through this period. The impact of seasonably cold air, now nosing southward to the lee of the northern Rockies, remains unclear. But guidance generally indicates that the primary low will either migrate across or reform east-northeast of the central Great Plains into Iowa by late tonight, with the trailing cold front surging across the central Great Plains. It appears that this will be preceded by a moistening southerly return flow, which probably will include surface dew points rising through the 60s across much of the lower southern into central Great Plains by early this evening, and into portions of the Upper Midwest by early Sunday. Models indicate that this will occur beneath a narrow plume of elevated mixed-layer air slowly spreading across and east of the Great Plains into Mississippi Valley. ...Southern Great Plains toward the Upper Midwest... By late this afternoon, the low-level moisture return, coupled with insolation beneath the elevated mixed-layer, may contribute to CAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg as the leading edge of mid-level cooling overspreads portions of the central Great Plains into mid/lower Missouri Valley vicinity. This is forecast to accompany an initial short wave perturbation, though the stronger mid/upper forcing for ascent may remain largely focused above cold surface-based air to the northwest and north of the surface low. Still, the initiation of isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development along the dryline may not be entirely out of the question, particularly across north central Kansas, before propagating east-northeastward within an environment conducive for supercell development. There has been a more consistent signal evident in model output concerning thunderstorm initiation with forcing accompanying a trailing perturbation likely to impact the vicinity of the cold front and dryline intersection by early this evening. It appears that this will probably be focused across northwestern Oklahoma, perhaps as far north as the Interstate 35 corridor of south central Kansas and as far south as northwestern portions of the Greater Oklahoma City area, before spreading east-northeastward toward the lower Missouri Valley/Ozark Plateau through early Sunday. This may coincide with better boundary-layer moisture return (include surface dew points increasing into the mid 60s F+, which may contribute to CAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg) and strengthening low-level and deep-layer shear, which is likely to become supportive of a few supercells, at least initially. Activity may gradually grow upscale into an organizing cluster, accompanied by potential for large hail, damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a tornado or two. Farther south, the risk for severe weather appears to remain largely conditional. HREF guidance and other model output suggest only low probability for thunderstorm initiation overnight, roughly across parts of the Edwards Plateau into central Texas, where moderate potential boundary-layer instability may remain capped by warm, dry air in the lower/mid-troposphere. ..Kerr/Weinman.. 03/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 AM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS INTO WESTERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central and southern Great Plains into middle Mississippi Valley today through tonight. This may include an organizing cluster of storms across parts of northern Oklahoma and southeastern Kansas through western Missouri this evening into the overnight hours. ...Discussion... Downstream of a blocked regime, including an increasingly prominent mid-level high centered over the western Aleutians, models indicate that a broad, deep mid-level low will continue to evolve across the northeastern Pacific. To the south of this feature, mid-level flow is forecast to intensify in a westerly belt across the southern mid-latitudes, toward the central and southern California coast. This will be preceded inland by a number of weaker perturbations across the southern Great Basin and Rockies, through the Great Plains, where at least a couple may gradually begin to consolidate into larger-scale troughing by 12Z Sunday. A sub-1000 mb low has already formed within surface troughing to the lee of the Colorado Rockies. However, models indicate little, if any, further deepening through this period. The impact of seasonably cold air, now nosing southward to the lee of the northern Rockies, remains unclear. But guidance generally indicates that the primary low will either migrate across or reform east-northeast of the central Great Plains into Iowa by late tonight, with the trailing cold front surging across the central Great Plains. It appears that this will be preceded by a moistening southerly return flow, which probably will include surface dew points rising through the 60s across much of the lower southern into central Great Plains by early this evening, and into portions of the Upper Midwest by early Sunday. Models indicate that this will occur beneath a narrow plume of elevated mixed-layer air slowly spreading across and east of the Great Plains into Mississippi Valley. ...Southern Great Plains toward the Upper Midwest... By late this afternoon, the low-level moisture return, coupled with insolation beneath the elevated mixed-layer, may contribute to CAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg as the leading edge of mid-level cooling overspreads portions of the central Great Plains into mid/lower Missouri Valley vicinity. This is forecast to accompany an initial short wave perturbation, though the stronger mid/upper forcing for ascent may remain largely focused above cold surface-based air to the northwest and north of the surface low. Still, the initiation of isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development along the dryline may not be entirely out of the question, particularly across north central Kansas, before propagating east-northeastward within an environment conducive for supercell development. There has been a more consistent signal evident in model output concerning thunderstorm initiation with forcing accompanying a trailing perturbation likely to impact the vicinity of the cold front and dryline intersection by early this evening. It appears that this will probably be focused across northwestern Oklahoma, perhaps as far north as the Interstate 35 corridor of south central Kansas and as far south as northwestern portions of the Greater Oklahoma City area, before spreading east-northeastward toward the lower Missouri Valley/Ozark Plateau through early Sunday. This may coincide with better boundary-layer moisture return (include surface dew points increasing into the mid 60s F+, which may contribute to CAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg) and strengthening low-level and deep-layer shear, which is likely to become supportive of a few supercells, at least initially. Activity may gradually grow upscale into an organizing cluster, accompanied by potential for large hail, damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a tornado or two. Farther south, the risk for severe weather appears to remain largely conditional. HREF guidance and other model output suggest only low probability for thunderstorm initiation overnight, roughly across parts of the Edwards Plateau into central Texas, where moderate potential boundary-layer instability may remain capped by warm, dry air in the lower/mid-troposphere. ..Kerr/Weinman.. 03/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 AM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS INTO WESTERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central and southern Great Plains into middle Mississippi Valley today through tonight. This may include an organizing cluster of storms across parts of northern Oklahoma and southeastern Kansas through western Missouri this evening into the overnight hours. ...Discussion... Downstream of a blocked regime, including an increasingly prominent mid-level high centered over the western Aleutians, models indicate that a broad, deep mid-level low will continue to evolve across the northeastern Pacific. To the south of this feature, mid-level flow is forecast to intensify in a westerly belt across the southern mid-latitudes, toward the central and southern California coast. This will be preceded inland by a number of weaker perturbations across the southern Great Basin and Rockies, through the Great Plains, where at least a couple may gradually begin to consolidate into larger-scale troughing by 12Z Sunday. A sub-1000 mb low has already formed within surface troughing to the lee of the Colorado Rockies. However, models indicate little, if any, further deepening through this period. The impact of seasonably cold air, now nosing southward to the lee of the northern Rockies, remains unclear. But guidance generally indicates that the primary low will either migrate across or reform east-northeast of the central Great Plains into Iowa by late tonight, with the trailing cold front surging across the central Great Plains. It appears that this will be preceded by a moistening southerly return flow, which probably will include surface dew points rising through the 60s across much of the lower southern into central Great Plains by early this evening, and into portions of the Upper Midwest by early Sunday. Models indicate that this will occur beneath a narrow plume of elevated mixed-layer air slowly spreading across and east of the Great Plains into Mississippi Valley. ...Southern Great Plains toward the Upper Midwest... By late this afternoon, the low-level moisture return, coupled with insolation beneath the elevated mixed-layer, may contribute to CAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg as the leading edge of mid-level cooling overspreads portions of the central Great Plains into mid/lower Missouri Valley vicinity. This is forecast to accompany an initial short wave perturbation, though the stronger mid/upper forcing for ascent may remain largely focused above cold surface-based air to the northwest and north of the surface low. Still, the initiation of isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development along the dryline may not be entirely out of the question, particularly across north central Kansas, before propagating east-northeastward within an environment conducive for supercell development. There has been a more consistent signal evident in model output concerning thunderstorm initiation with forcing accompanying a trailing perturbation likely to impact the vicinity of the cold front and dryline intersection by early this evening. It appears that this will probably be focused across northwestern Oklahoma, perhaps as far north as the Interstate 35 corridor of south central Kansas and as far south as northwestern portions of the Greater Oklahoma City area, before spreading east-northeastward toward the lower Missouri Valley/Ozark Plateau through early Sunday. This may coincide with better boundary-layer moisture return (include surface dew points increasing into the mid 60s F+, which may contribute to CAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg) and strengthening low-level and deep-layer shear, which is likely to become supportive of a few supercells, at least initially. Activity may gradually grow upscale into an organizing cluster, accompanied by potential for large hail, damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a tornado or two. Farther south, the risk for severe weather appears to remain largely conditional. HREF guidance and other model output suggest only low probability for thunderstorm initiation overnight, roughly across parts of the Edwards Plateau into central Texas, where moderate potential boundary-layer instability may remain capped by warm, dry air in the lower/mid-troposphere. ..Kerr/Weinman.. 03/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 AM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS INTO WESTERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central and southern Great Plains into middle Mississippi Valley today through tonight. This may include an organizing cluster of storms across parts of northern Oklahoma and southeastern Kansas through western Missouri this evening into the overnight hours. ...Discussion... Downstream of a blocked regime, including an increasingly prominent mid-level high centered over the western Aleutians, models indicate that a broad, deep mid-level low will continue to evolve across the northeastern Pacific. To the south of this feature, mid-level flow is forecast to intensify in a westerly belt across the southern mid-latitudes, toward the central and southern California coast. This will be preceded inland by a number of weaker perturbations across the southern Great Basin and Rockies, through the Great Plains, where at least a couple may gradually begin to consolidate into larger-scale troughing by 12Z Sunday. A sub-1000 mb low has already formed within surface troughing to the lee of the Colorado Rockies. However, models indicate little, if any, further deepening through this period. The impact of seasonably cold air, now nosing southward to the lee of the northern Rockies, remains unclear. But guidance generally indicates that the primary low will either migrate across or reform east-northeast of the central Great Plains into Iowa by late tonight, with the trailing cold front surging across the central Great Plains. It appears that this will be preceded by a moistening southerly return flow, which probably will include surface dew points rising through the 60s across much of the lower southern into central Great Plains by early this evening, and into portions of the Upper Midwest by early Sunday. Models indicate that this will occur beneath a narrow plume of elevated mixed-layer air slowly spreading across and east of the Great Plains into Mississippi Valley. ...Southern Great Plains toward the Upper Midwest... By late this afternoon, the low-level moisture return, coupled with insolation beneath the elevated mixed-layer, may contribute to CAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg as the leading edge of mid-level cooling overspreads portions of the central Great Plains into mid/lower Missouri Valley vicinity. This is forecast to accompany an initial short wave perturbation, though the stronger mid/upper forcing for ascent may remain largely focused above cold surface-based air to the northwest and north of the surface low. Still, the initiation of isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development along the dryline may not be entirely out of the question, particularly across north central Kansas, before propagating east-northeastward within an environment conducive for supercell development. There has been a more consistent signal evident in model output concerning thunderstorm initiation with forcing accompanying a trailing perturbation likely to impact the vicinity of the cold front and dryline intersection by early this evening. It appears that this will probably be focused across northwestern Oklahoma, perhaps as far north as the Interstate 35 corridor of south central Kansas and as far south as northwestern portions of the Greater Oklahoma City area, before spreading east-northeastward toward the lower Missouri Valley/Ozark Plateau through early Sunday. This may coincide with better boundary-layer moisture return (include surface dew points increasing into the mid 60s F+, which may contribute to CAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg) and strengthening low-level and deep-layer shear, which is likely to become supportive of a few supercells, at least initially. Activity may gradually grow upscale into an organizing cluster, accompanied by potential for large hail, damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a tornado or two. Farther south, the risk for severe weather appears to remain largely conditional. HREF guidance and other model output suggest only low probability for thunderstorm initiation overnight, roughly across parts of the Edwards Plateau into central Texas, where moderate potential boundary-layer instability may remain capped by warm, dry air in the lower/mid-troposphere. ..Kerr/Weinman.. 03/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 AM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS INTO WESTERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central and southern Great Plains into middle Mississippi Valley today through tonight. This may include an organizing cluster of storms across parts of northern Oklahoma and southeastern Kansas through western Missouri this evening into the overnight hours. ...Discussion... Downstream of a blocked regime, including an increasingly prominent mid-level high centered over the western Aleutians, models indicate that a broad, deep mid-level low will continue to evolve across the northeastern Pacific. To the south of this feature, mid-level flow is forecast to intensify in a westerly belt across the southern mid-latitudes, toward the central and southern California coast. This will be preceded inland by a number of weaker perturbations across the southern Great Basin and Rockies, through the Great Plains, where at least a couple may gradually begin to consolidate into larger-scale troughing by 12Z Sunday. A sub-1000 mb low has already formed within surface troughing to the lee of the Colorado Rockies. However, models indicate little, if any, further deepening through this period. The impact of seasonably cold air, now nosing southward to the lee of the northern Rockies, remains unclear. But guidance generally indicates that the primary low will either migrate across or reform east-northeast of the central Great Plains into Iowa by late tonight, with the trailing cold front surging across the central Great Plains. It appears that this will be preceded by a moistening southerly return flow, which probably will include surface dew points rising through the 60s across much of the lower southern into central Great Plains by early this evening, and into portions of the Upper Midwest by early Sunday. Models indicate that this will occur beneath a narrow plume of elevated mixed-layer air slowly spreading across and east of the Great Plains into Mississippi Valley. ...Southern Great Plains toward the Upper Midwest... By late this afternoon, the low-level moisture return, coupled with insolation beneath the elevated mixed-layer, may contribute to CAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg as the leading edge of mid-level cooling overspreads portions of the central Great Plains into mid/lower Missouri Valley vicinity. This is forecast to accompany an initial short wave perturbation, though the stronger mid/upper forcing for ascent may remain largely focused above cold surface-based air to the northwest and north of the surface low. Still, the initiation of isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development along the dryline may not be entirely out of the question, particularly across north central Kansas, before propagating east-northeastward within an environment conducive for supercell development. There has been a more consistent signal evident in model output concerning thunderstorm initiation with forcing accompanying a trailing perturbation likely to impact the vicinity of the cold front and dryline intersection by early this evening. It appears that this will probably be focused across northwestern Oklahoma, perhaps as far north as the Interstate 35 corridor of south central Kansas and as far south as northwestern portions of the Greater Oklahoma City area, before spreading east-northeastward toward the lower Missouri Valley/Ozark Plateau through early Sunday. This may coincide with better boundary-layer moisture return (include surface dew points increasing into the mid 60s F+, which may contribute to CAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg) and strengthening low-level and deep-layer shear, which is likely to become supportive of a few supercells, at least initially. Activity may gradually grow upscale into an organizing cluster, accompanied by potential for large hail, damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a tornado or two. Farther south, the risk for severe weather appears to remain largely conditional. HREF guidance and other model output suggest only low probability for thunderstorm initiation overnight, roughly across parts of the Edwards Plateau into central Texas, where moderate potential boundary-layer instability may remain capped by warm, dry air in the lower/mid-troposphere. ..Kerr/Weinman.. 03/29/2025 Read more

MD 0279 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...FAR NORTHWEST...IOWA...AND FAR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 0279 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0725 PM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025 Areas affected...Southern Minnesota...far northwest...Iowa...and far northeast Nebraska Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 290025Z - 290230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A couple strong to severe storms capable of producing locally damaging wind gusts (around 60 mph) and marginally severe hail (around 1 inch) are possible through around 03Z. DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorms are evolving along a northeast/southwest-oriented cold front extending from southern MN into far northeast IA and northeast NE. Earlier diurnal heating beneath an EML plume has resulted in steep deep-layer lapse rates and around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE along the front. While instability is marginal, 30-40 kt of effective shear oriented parallel/oblique to the surface front will support small, loosely organized clusters capable of producing locally damaging winds gusts (around 60 mph) and marginally severe hail (around 1 inch) for the next few hours. Given the flow orientation to the southeastward-moving cold front, there may be a tendency for upscale growth into a line, before being undercut by the front. Therefore, any severe risk is expected to remain fairly brief (through around 02-03Z). ..Weinman/Mosier.. 03/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX... LAT...LON 42769743 43589589 44159453 44619270 44539214 44099222 43649401 43249506 42339688 42489738 42769743 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

MD 0278 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR FAR SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL WISCONSIN
Mesoscale Discussion 0278 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0623 PM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025 Areas affected...Far southeast Minnesota and northern/central Wisconsin Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 282323Z - 290200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A couple instances of marginally severe hail (around 1 inch) are possible through around 03Z. DISCUSSION...The latest radar and IR satellite imagery show a gradual increase in ascent along/immediately north of a warm front draped across portions of central WI -- ahead of a weak surface low over southeast MN. This is associated with gradually strengthening warm advection in the vicinity of a coupled upper-level jet structure. A steep midlevel lapse rate plume extending eastward into the area (see earlier 12Z upstream soundings) is contributing to around 1000 J/kg MUCAPE, which may increase to around 1500 J/kg as ascent moistens the base of the EML. This instability and around 40-50 kt of cloud-layer shear (per regional VWP data) may promote a couple loosely organized supercell structures capable of producing hail to around 1 inch in diameter. While the majority of this activity is expected to remain elevated, a couple ongoing cells in southeast MN into west-central WI are evolving within or slightly on the warm side of the baroclinic zone. Even so, isolated severe hail should still be the primary hazard. The severe-hail risk should generally persist through around 03Z, before cellular convection is expected to diminish amid weakening instability/midlevel lapse rates. ..Weinman/Mosier.. 03/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX... LAT...LON 44018942 43939152 43919237 43989285 44499320 44919312 45349273 45549210 45589125 45368815 44958768 44458783 44098819 44018942 MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 PM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN...SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...NORTHWESTERN IOWA...NORTHEASTERN INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA...AND PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development is still possible this evening across parts of the Upper Midwest into central Great Plains. ...01Z Update... In the wake of southern mid- to subtropical latitude mid-level troughing slowly progressing east-northeast of the southeastern Great Plains/northwestern Gulf Basin vicinity, and downstream of low-amplitude mid-level troughing emerging from the mid-latitude Pacific, a narrow plume of elevated mixed-layer air has overspread a corridor from the southern high plains through the Upper Midwest. Beneath this regime, low-level moisture return remains modest, particularly to the north of the southern Great Plains Red River Valley. ...Great Plains into Great Lakes Due to the pronounced mid-level inhibition, thunderstorm development through much of the day remained confined to areas well to the north of a sharp quasi-stationary frontal zone across the Upper Mississippi Valley into lower Great Lakes region. However, thunderstorm activity has recently initiated, and continues to increase in coverage, in closer proximity to the front, across parts of southern Minnesota into central Wisconsin. While some of this has initiated in the more strongly heated boundary-layer to the south of the front, this is likely to be either fairly quickly become undercut by the front, where the front is beginning to advance southward, or become focused in forcing associated with low-level warm to the immediate north of the front, farther east. CAPE for the elevated moist parcels might be as high as 500-1000 J/kg, which may continue to support a risk for small to marginally severe hail in stronger storms through this evening. Southwestward into the Great Plains, latest satellite imagery suggest that there still may be a window of opportunity for thunderstorm initiation within the pre-frontal surface troughing across parts of northeastern through south central Nebraska early this evening. Given the warm/dry sub-cloud air, a few strong gusts may accompany this activity before boundary-layer cooling diminishes this potential later this evening. ..Kerr.. 03/29/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 PM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN...SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...NORTHWESTERN IOWA...NORTHEASTERN INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA...AND PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development is still possible this evening across parts of the Upper Midwest into central Great Plains. ...01Z Update... In the wake of southern mid- to subtropical latitude mid-level troughing slowly progressing east-northeast of the southeastern Great Plains/northwestern Gulf Basin vicinity, and downstream of low-amplitude mid-level troughing emerging from the mid-latitude Pacific, a narrow plume of elevated mixed-layer air has overspread a corridor from the southern high plains through the Upper Midwest. Beneath this regime, low-level moisture return remains modest, particularly to the north of the southern Great Plains Red River Valley. ...Great Plains into Great Lakes Due to the pronounced mid-level inhibition, thunderstorm development through much of the day remained confined to areas well to the north of a sharp quasi-stationary frontal zone across the Upper Mississippi Valley into lower Great Lakes region. However, thunderstorm activity has recently initiated, and continues to increase in coverage, in closer proximity to the front, across parts of southern Minnesota into central Wisconsin. While some of this has initiated in the more strongly heated boundary-layer to the south of the front, this is likely to be either fairly quickly become undercut by the front, where the front is beginning to advance southward, or become focused in forcing associated with low-level warm to the immediate north of the front, farther east. CAPE for the elevated moist parcels might be as high as 500-1000 J/kg, which may continue to support a risk for small to marginally severe hail in stronger storms through this evening. Southwestward into the Great Plains, latest satellite imagery suggest that there still may be a window of opportunity for thunderstorm initiation within the pre-frontal surface troughing across parts of northeastern through south central Nebraska early this evening. Given the warm/dry sub-cloud air, a few strong gusts may accompany this activity before boundary-layer cooling diminishes this potential later this evening. ..Kerr.. 03/29/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 PM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN...SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...NORTHWESTERN IOWA...NORTHEASTERN INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA...AND PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development is still possible this evening across parts of the Upper Midwest into central Great Plains. ...01Z Update... In the wake of southern mid- to subtropical latitude mid-level troughing slowly progressing east-northeast of the southeastern Great Plains/northwestern Gulf Basin vicinity, and downstream of low-amplitude mid-level troughing emerging from the mid-latitude Pacific, a narrow plume of elevated mixed-layer air has overspread a corridor from the southern high plains through the Upper Midwest. Beneath this regime, low-level moisture return remains modest, particularly to the north of the southern Great Plains Red River Valley. ...Great Plains into Great Lakes Due to the pronounced mid-level inhibition, thunderstorm development through much of the day remained confined to areas well to the north of a sharp quasi-stationary frontal zone across the Upper Mississippi Valley into lower Great Lakes region. However, thunderstorm activity has recently initiated, and continues to increase in coverage, in closer proximity to the front, across parts of southern Minnesota into central Wisconsin. While some of this has initiated in the more strongly heated boundary-layer to the south of the front, this is likely to be either fairly quickly become undercut by the front, where the front is beginning to advance southward, or become focused in forcing associated with low-level warm to the immediate north of the front, farther east. CAPE for the elevated moist parcels might be as high as 500-1000 J/kg, which may continue to support a risk for small to marginally severe hail in stronger storms through this evening. Southwestward into the Great Plains, latest satellite imagery suggest that there still may be a window of opportunity for thunderstorm initiation within the pre-frontal surface troughing across parts of northeastern through south central Nebraska early this evening. Given the warm/dry sub-cloud air, a few strong gusts may accompany this activity before boundary-layer cooling diminishes this potential later this evening. ..Kerr.. 03/29/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 PM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN...SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...NORTHWESTERN IOWA...NORTHEASTERN INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA...AND PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development is still possible this evening across parts of the Upper Midwest into central Great Plains. ...01Z Update... In the wake of southern mid- to subtropical latitude mid-level troughing slowly progressing east-northeast of the southeastern Great Plains/northwestern Gulf Basin vicinity, and downstream of low-amplitude mid-level troughing emerging from the mid-latitude Pacific, a narrow plume of elevated mixed-layer air has overspread a corridor from the southern high plains through the Upper Midwest. Beneath this regime, low-level moisture return remains modest, particularly to the north of the southern Great Plains Red River Valley. ...Great Plains into Great Lakes Due to the pronounced mid-level inhibition, thunderstorm development through much of the day remained confined to areas well to the north of a sharp quasi-stationary frontal zone across the Upper Mississippi Valley into lower Great Lakes region. However, thunderstorm activity has recently initiated, and continues to increase in coverage, in closer proximity to the front, across parts of southern Minnesota into central Wisconsin. While some of this has initiated in the more strongly heated boundary-layer to the south of the front, this is likely to be either fairly quickly become undercut by the front, where the front is beginning to advance southward, or become focused in forcing associated with low-level warm to the immediate north of the front, farther east. CAPE for the elevated moist parcels might be as high as 500-1000 J/kg, which may continue to support a risk for small to marginally severe hail in stronger storms through this evening. Southwestward into the Great Plains, latest satellite imagery suggest that there still may be a window of opportunity for thunderstorm initiation within the pre-frontal surface troughing across parts of northeastern through south central Nebraska early this evening. Given the warm/dry sub-cloud air, a few strong gusts may accompany this activity before boundary-layer cooling diminishes this potential later this evening. ..Kerr.. 03/29/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 PM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN...SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...NORTHWESTERN IOWA...NORTHEASTERN INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA...AND PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development is still possible this evening across parts of the Upper Midwest into central Great Plains. ...01Z Update... In the wake of southern mid- to subtropical latitude mid-level troughing slowly progressing east-northeast of the southeastern Great Plains/northwestern Gulf Basin vicinity, and downstream of low-amplitude mid-level troughing emerging from the mid-latitude Pacific, a narrow plume of elevated mixed-layer air has overspread a corridor from the southern high plains through the Upper Midwest. Beneath this regime, low-level moisture return remains modest, particularly to the north of the southern Great Plains Red River Valley. ...Great Plains into Great Lakes Due to the pronounced mid-level inhibition, thunderstorm development through much of the day remained confined to areas well to the north of a sharp quasi-stationary frontal zone across the Upper Mississippi Valley into lower Great Lakes region. However, thunderstorm activity has recently initiated, and continues to increase in coverage, in closer proximity to the front, across parts of southern Minnesota into central Wisconsin. While some of this has initiated in the more strongly heated boundary-layer to the south of the front, this is likely to be either fairly quickly become undercut by the front, where the front is beginning to advance southward, or become focused in forcing associated with low-level warm to the immediate north of the front, farther east. CAPE for the elevated moist parcels might be as high as 500-1000 J/kg, which may continue to support a risk for small to marginally severe hail in stronger storms through this evening. Southwestward into the Great Plains, latest satellite imagery suggest that there still may be a window of opportunity for thunderstorm initiation within the pre-frontal surface troughing across parts of northeastern through south central Nebraska early this evening. Given the warm/dry sub-cloud air, a few strong gusts may accompany this activity before boundary-layer cooling diminishes this potential later this evening. ..Kerr.. 03/29/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 PM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN...SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...NORTHWESTERN IOWA...NORTHEASTERN INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA...AND PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development is still possible this evening across parts of the Upper Midwest into central Great Plains. ...01Z Update... In the wake of southern mid- to subtropical latitude mid-level troughing slowly progressing east-northeast of the southeastern Great Plains/northwestern Gulf Basin vicinity, and downstream of low-amplitude mid-level troughing emerging from the mid-latitude Pacific, a narrow plume of elevated mixed-layer air has overspread a corridor from the southern high plains through the Upper Midwest. Beneath this regime, low-level moisture return remains modest, particularly to the north of the southern Great Plains Red River Valley. ...Great Plains into Great Lakes Due to the pronounced mid-level inhibition, thunderstorm development through much of the day remained confined to areas well to the north of a sharp quasi-stationary frontal zone across the Upper Mississippi Valley into lower Great Lakes region. However, thunderstorm activity has recently initiated, and continues to increase in coverage, in closer proximity to the front, across parts of southern Minnesota into central Wisconsin. While some of this has initiated in the more strongly heated boundary-layer to the south of the front, this is likely to be either fairly quickly become undercut by the front, where the front is beginning to advance southward, or become focused in forcing associated with low-level warm to the immediate north of the front, farther east. CAPE for the elevated moist parcels might be as high as 500-1000 J/kg, which may continue to support a risk for small to marginally severe hail in stronger storms through this evening. Southwestward into the Great Plains, latest satellite imagery suggest that there still may be a window of opportunity for thunderstorm initiation within the pre-frontal surface troughing across parts of northeastern through south central Nebraska early this evening. Given the warm/dry sub-cloud air, a few strong gusts may accompany this activity before boundary-layer cooling diminishes this potential later this evening. ..Kerr.. 03/29/2025 Read more

MD 0277 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 66... FOR EAST TEXAS...WESTERN LOUISIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 0277 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0531 PM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025 Areas affected...East Texas...Western Louisiana Concerning...Tornado Watch 66... Valid 282231Z - 290030Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 66 continues. SUMMARY...An isolated tornado and wind-damage threat will likely continue for another hour or two. After the 00Z expiration of WW 66, a lingering severe threat will be possible, which could necessitate a local weather watch extension. DISCUSSION...The latest satellite imagery and RAP analysis show a mid-level trough over the central Texas, with several vorticity maxima located from east Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley. Large-scale ascent associated with the vorticity maxima will continue to support scattered thunderstorm development across the Sabine River Valley early this evening. The RAP is analyzing an axis of instability over far east Texas where SBCAPE is estimated around 1000 J/kg range. In addition, the RAP is showing a low to mid-level jet over western and central Louisiana. This feature appears to be sampled by the Lake Charles and Shreveport WSR-88D VWPs which have 30 to 35 knots of 0-6 km shear and 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around 250 m2/s2. This environment should support an isolated tornado threat with supercells over the next one to two hours. Any supercell could also be capable of producing isolated severe gusts. ..Broyles.. 03/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX... LAT...LON 30119472 29959432 29989359 30189326 30549308 31759315 32569330 32899350 32959393 32789427 32389451 31779469 31009480 30429484 30119472 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more

WW 0066 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 66 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..03/28/25 ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 66 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC011-019-023-031-069-081-085-115-290040- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE BEAUREGARD CALCASIEU CAMERON DE SOTO NATCHITOCHES RED RIVER SABINE VERNON TXC005-199-241-245-291-347-351-361-373-403-405-419-457-290040- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANGELINA HARDIN JASPER JEFFERSON LIBERTY NACOGDOCHES NEWTON ORANGE POLK SABINE SAN AUGUSTINE SHELBY TYLER GMZ430-432-290040- CW Read more

WW 0066 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 66 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..03/28/25 ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 66 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC011-019-023-031-069-081-085-115-290040- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE BEAUREGARD CALCASIEU CAMERON DE SOTO NATCHITOCHES RED RIVER SABINE VERNON TXC005-199-241-245-291-347-351-361-373-403-405-419-457-290040- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANGELINA HARDIN JASPER JEFFERSON LIBERTY NACOGDOCHES NEWTON ORANGE POLK SABINE SAN AUGUSTINE SHELBY TYLER GMZ430-432-290040- CW Read more

WW 66 TORNADO LA TX CW 281725Z - 290000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 66 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Western Louisiana Southeast and East Texas Coastal Waters * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 1225 PM until 700 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms will continue to intensify into the afternoon as a moist and destabilizing airmass becomes more favorable for supercell development with the stronger storms. A couple of tornadoes are possible with the stronger storms through the late afternoon and into the early evening before this activity diminishes. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 55 miles west northwest of Natchitoches LA to 10 miles east southeast of Port Arthur TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 19025. ...Smith Read more

WW 0066 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 66 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..03/28/25 ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 66 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC011-019-023-031-069-081-085-115-290040- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE BEAUREGARD CALCASIEU CAMERON DE SOTO NATCHITOCHES RED RIVER SABINE VERNON TXC005-199-241-245-291-347-351-361-373-403-405-419-457-290040- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANGELINA HARDIN JASPER JEFFERSON LIBERTY NACOGDOCHES NEWTON ORANGE POLK SABINE SAN AUGUSTINE SHELBY TYLER GMZ430-432-290040- CW Read more

MD 0278 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR FAR SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL WISCONSIN
Mesoscale Discussion 0278 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0623 PM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025 Areas affected...Far southeast Minnesota and northern/central Wisconsin Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 282323Z - 290200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A couple instances of marginally severe hail (around 1 inch) are possible through around 03Z. DISCUSSION...The latest radar and IR satellite imagery show a gradual increase in ascent along/immediately north of a warm front draped across portions of central WI -- ahead of a weak surface low over southeast MN. This is associated with gradually strengthening warm advection in the vicinity of a coupled upper-level jet structure. A steep midlevel lapse rate plume extending eastward into the area (see earlier 12Z upstream soundings) is contributing to around 1000 J/kg MUCAPE, which may increase to around 1500 J/kg as ascent moistens the base of the EML. This instability and around 40-50 kt of cloud-layer shear (per regional VWP data) may promote a couple loosely organized supercell structures capable of producing hail to around 1 inch in diameter. While the majority of this activity is expected to remain elevated, a couple ongoing cells in southeast MN into west-central WI are evolving within or slightly on the warm side of the baroclinic zone. Even so, isolated severe hail should still be the primary hazard. The severe-hail risk should generally persist through around 03Z, before cellular convection is expected to diminish amid weakening instability/midlevel lapse rates. ..Weinman/Mosier.. 03/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX... LAT...LON 44018942 43939152 43919237 43989285 44499320 44919312 45349273 45549210 45589125 45368815 44958768 44458783 44098819 44018942 MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

MD 0277 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 66... FOR EAST TEXAS...WESTERN LOUISIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 0277 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0531 PM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025 Areas affected...East Texas...Western Louisiana Concerning...Tornado Watch 66... Valid 282231Z - 290030Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 66 continues. SUMMARY...An isolated tornado and wind-damage threat will likely continue for another hour or two. After the 00Z expiration of WW 66, a lingering severe threat will be possible, which could necessitate a local weather watch extension. DISCUSSION...The latest satellite imagery and RAP analysis show a mid-level trough over the central Texas, with several vorticity maxima located from east Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley. Large-scale ascent associated with the vorticity maxima will continue to support scattered thunderstorm development across the Sabine River Valley early this evening. The RAP is analyzing an axis of instability over far east Texas where SBCAPE is estimated around 1000 J/kg range. In addition, the RAP is showing a low to mid-level jet over western and central Louisiana. This feature appears to be sampled by the Lake Charles and Shreveport WSR-88D VWPs which have 30 to 35 knots of 0-6 km shear and 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around 250 m2/s2. This environment should support an isolated tornado threat with supercells over the next one to two hours. Any supercell could also be capable of producing isolated severe gusts. ..Broyles.. 03/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX... LAT...LON 30119472 29959432 29989359 30189326 30549308 31759315 32569330 32899350 32959393 32789427 32389451 31779469 31009480 30429484 30119472 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more