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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE EASTERN U.S. INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Strong/severe thunderstorms are forecast Monday from portions of the Northeast southwestward to the central Gulf Coast region. ...Synopsis... A surface low is forecast to intensify as it moves northeastward from the Lower Great Lakes into southeast Canada through the day Monday morning in tandem with a leading shortwave trough. A trailing cold front is expected to push east/southeast into the upper OH River Valley and lower MS Valley/Southeast early Monday morning as a second low-amplitude wave traverses the eastern CONUS. Thunderstorm potential will be focused along this front as it continues to push into New England, the Mid-Atlantic, and into the southeast states through the late afternoon and evening hours. ...Central Gulf States... Strong to severe thunderstorms may be ongoing by 12z Monday as a squall line forced along the cold front continues to push southeast across MS and AL. A combination of rich low-level moisture ahead of the line, diurnal heating, strong low to mid-level flow, and broad scale ascent ahead of the secondary upper wave should help maintain convective intensity into the afternoon hours. A corridor of damaging/severe winds, and potentially embedded tornadoes, appears probable from central MS into AL and western GA. ...Central Appalachians... Thunderstorm development along the front is expected by early to mid-afternoon from the upper OH Valley southward into the Mid-Atlantic region. Returning moisture through the Carolinas northward into eastern PA/western NY, combined with mid-level lapse rates around 7 C/km, should support sufficient buoyancy for deep convection, though buoyancy values should diminish with northward extent across the central Appalachians. Moderate flow within the lowest few kilometers should support a damaging wind threat as convection matures along the front across the upper OH Valley. Further south, stronger ascent ahead of the secondary upper wave should promote better storm organization, including the potential for semi-discrete cells and/or organized linear segments. Medium-range guidance suggests low-level winds will strengthen across the Mid-Atlantic region as a weak secondary low deepens through late afternoon in the lee of the Appalachians, which may support an enlargement of the 0-3 km hodograph and a locally higher tornado threat across the Carolinas into VA. ..Moore.. 03/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE EASTERN U.S. INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Strong/severe thunderstorms are forecast Monday from portions of the Northeast southwestward to the central Gulf Coast region. ...Synopsis... A surface low is forecast to intensify as it moves northeastward from the Lower Great Lakes into southeast Canada through the day Monday morning in tandem with a leading shortwave trough. A trailing cold front is expected to push east/southeast into the upper OH River Valley and lower MS Valley/Southeast early Monday morning as a second low-amplitude wave traverses the eastern CONUS. Thunderstorm potential will be focused along this front as it continues to push into New England, the Mid-Atlantic, and into the southeast states through the late afternoon and evening hours. ...Central Gulf States... Strong to severe thunderstorms may be ongoing by 12z Monday as a squall line forced along the cold front continues to push southeast across MS and AL. A combination of rich low-level moisture ahead of the line, diurnal heating, strong low to mid-level flow, and broad scale ascent ahead of the secondary upper wave should help maintain convective intensity into the afternoon hours. A corridor of damaging/severe winds, and potentially embedded tornadoes, appears probable from central MS into AL and western GA. ...Central Appalachians... Thunderstorm development along the front is expected by early to mid-afternoon from the upper OH Valley southward into the Mid-Atlantic region. Returning moisture through the Carolinas northward into eastern PA/western NY, combined with mid-level lapse rates around 7 C/km, should support sufficient buoyancy for deep convection, though buoyancy values should diminish with northward extent across the central Appalachians. Moderate flow within the lowest few kilometers should support a damaging wind threat as convection matures along the front across the upper OH Valley. Further south, stronger ascent ahead of the secondary upper wave should promote better storm organization, including the potential for semi-discrete cells and/or organized linear segments. Medium-range guidance suggests low-level winds will strengthen across the Mid-Atlantic region as a weak secondary low deepens through late afternoon in the lee of the Appalachians, which may support an enlargement of the 0-3 km hodograph and a locally higher tornado threat across the Carolinas into VA. ..Moore.. 03/29/2025 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Mar 29 19:30:02 UTC 2025.

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A BROAD AREA CENTERED OVER THE OHIO/MID MISSISSIPPI/TENNESSEE VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... A widespread/substantial severe-weather episode is forecast across an area centered on the Ohio/Mid and Lower Mississippi/Lower Missouri/Tennessee River Valleys. Very large hail, damaging winds, and strong tornadoes are expected. ...Synopsis... Mid-morning water vapor imagery depicts an upper-level shortwave trough across the Southwest that is the leading impulse within a longwave trough building across the eastern Pacific/western CONUS. This wave is expected to overspread the southern/central Plains today before migrating into the Great Lakes region through the day tomorrow. A secondary disturbance is expected to move into the southern Plains late tomorrow evening into early Monday. At the surface, the surface low analyzed across KS is forecast to intensify as it moves northeast along a frontal zone into the Great Lakes in tandem with the leading upper disturbance. The intensification of the low will result in a cold frontal surge across the Midwest/OH Valley tomorrow afternoon and across the Mid-MS Valley to Texarkana region tomorrow evening. Scattered to widespread thunderstorm development is anticipated along and ahead of the frontal zone with the potential for widespread large hail/severe winds and several tornadoes. ...Central TX... Latest guidance suggests convection may be ongoing across central TX along/ahead of a migratory dryline early Sunday morning. The southern extent of a pronounced EML casts doubt on storm coverage/longevity. However, buoyancy and deep-layer wind shear should be supportive of supercells with an attendant severe hail/wind threat if mature updrafts can develop along the boundary as the primary upper-level trough axis passes over the region. ...IL, IN, and OH... Consensus among recent forecast guidance is that kinematic fields will steadily strengthen across the Midwest and middle OH River Valley regions through the day as the surface low intensifies. Increasing southerly flow ahead of the primary cold front should allow for dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s to spread into the region by mid-afternoon. Scattered thunderstorm development along the cold front appears likely as early as 18-20z across IL, and while a few initially discrete cells are possible, strong forcing along the front should promote upscale growth into an organized line by late afternoon. Strong low-level flow (nearly 50 knots 0-1 km BWD) may promote bowing segments and embedded mesovorticies within the line - especially across northern IN/northwest OH. 30% wind probabilities have been expanded northward to account for this potential. While this is the most probable scenario based on morning guidance, it could be complicated by any ongoing showers/thunderstorms and/or remnant outflow boundaries associated with nocturnal convection over MO late Saturday/early Sunday morning. This could limit diurnal heating/destabilization or may provide pre-frontal foci for convective initiation and promote more discrete storm modes. ...Mid-MS Valley to Texarkana region... Scattered, initially discrete supercells are expected to develop from the confluence of the OH/MS rivers southwestward into the Texarkana region Sunday afternoon along the cold front and dryline. Strong flow associated with the intensifying cyclone will promote elongated hodographs featuring nearly uni-directional wind profiles and effective bulk shear values on the order of 50-60 knots. This will promote splitting supercells with the potential for large to very large (2+ inch) hail. A more appreciable supercellular tornado threat may emerge through early evening across the lower OH Valley/mid-MS Valley where stronger veering in the lowest 1-2 km is anticipated amid weak pre-frontal isentropic ascent between 925-850 mb. While the tornado threat may be maximized through this corridor, low confidence in storm mode (due to the potential for splitting cells/destructive interactions) limits confidence in this potential to warrant higher probabilities at this time. However, upscale growth is anticipated through mid/late evening as the secondary upper disturbance migrates into the Texarkana region. Consolidation of multiple clusters into one or more organized linear segments is expected as storms push east towards the MS Valley with a gradual increase in the potential for damaging/severe winds. Additionally, low-level shear will remain favorable for embedded mesovorticies as the line pushes into western TN/northern MS/northwest AL through the overnight hours. ...Florida... A weak mid-level impulse (currently over the northern Gulf) is expected to meander across northern FL by peak heating. Somewhat strong mid-level winds (25-30 knots) associated with this feature may provide sufficient organization to thunderstorms developing across eastern central/northern FL to pose an isolated hail/wind threat. ..Moore.. 03/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A BROAD AREA CENTERED OVER THE OHIO/MID MISSISSIPPI/TENNESSEE VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... A widespread/substantial severe-weather episode is forecast across an area centered on the Ohio/Mid and Lower Mississippi/Lower Missouri/Tennessee River Valleys. Very large hail, damaging winds, and strong tornadoes are expected. ...Synopsis... Mid-morning water vapor imagery depicts an upper-level shortwave trough across the Southwest that is the leading impulse within a longwave trough building across the eastern Pacific/western CONUS. This wave is expected to overspread the southern/central Plains today before migrating into the Great Lakes region through the day tomorrow. A secondary disturbance is expected to move into the southern Plains late tomorrow evening into early Monday. At the surface, the surface low analyzed across KS is forecast to intensify as it moves northeast along a frontal zone into the Great Lakes in tandem with the leading upper disturbance. The intensification of the low will result in a cold frontal surge across the Midwest/OH Valley tomorrow afternoon and across the Mid-MS Valley to Texarkana region tomorrow evening. Scattered to widespread thunderstorm development is anticipated along and ahead of the frontal zone with the potential for widespread large hail/severe winds and several tornadoes. ...Central TX... Latest guidance suggests convection may be ongoing across central TX along/ahead of a migratory dryline early Sunday morning. The southern extent of a pronounced EML casts doubt on storm coverage/longevity. However, buoyancy and deep-layer wind shear should be supportive of supercells with an attendant severe hail/wind threat if mature updrafts can develop along the boundary as the primary upper-level trough axis passes over the region. ...IL, IN, and OH... Consensus among recent forecast guidance is that kinematic fields will steadily strengthen across the Midwest and middle OH River Valley regions through the day as the surface low intensifies. Increasing southerly flow ahead of the primary cold front should allow for dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s to spread into the region by mid-afternoon. Scattered thunderstorm development along the cold front appears likely as early as 18-20z across IL, and while a few initially discrete cells are possible, strong forcing along the front should promote upscale growth into an organized line by late afternoon. Strong low-level flow (nearly 50 knots 0-1 km BWD) may promote bowing segments and embedded mesovorticies within the line - especially across northern IN/northwest OH. 30% wind probabilities have been expanded northward to account for this potential. While this is the most probable scenario based on morning guidance, it could be complicated by any ongoing showers/thunderstorms and/or remnant outflow boundaries associated with nocturnal convection over MO late Saturday/early Sunday morning. This could limit diurnal heating/destabilization or may provide pre-frontal foci for convective initiation and promote more discrete storm modes. ...Mid-MS Valley to Texarkana region... Scattered, initially discrete supercells are expected to develop from the confluence of the OH/MS rivers southwestward into the Texarkana region Sunday afternoon along the cold front and dryline. Strong flow associated with the intensifying cyclone will promote elongated hodographs featuring nearly uni-directional wind profiles and effective bulk shear values on the order of 50-60 knots. This will promote splitting supercells with the potential for large to very large (2+ inch) hail. A more appreciable supercellular tornado threat may emerge through early evening across the lower OH Valley/mid-MS Valley where stronger veering in the lowest 1-2 km is anticipated amid weak pre-frontal isentropic ascent between 925-850 mb. While the tornado threat may be maximized through this corridor, low confidence in storm mode (due to the potential for splitting cells/destructive interactions) limits confidence in this potential to warrant higher probabilities at this time. However, upscale growth is anticipated through mid/late evening as the secondary upper disturbance migrates into the Texarkana region. Consolidation of multiple clusters into one or more organized linear segments is expected as storms push east towards the MS Valley with a gradual increase in the potential for damaging/severe winds. Additionally, low-level shear will remain favorable for embedded mesovorticies as the line pushes into western TN/northern MS/northwest AL through the overnight hours. ...Florida... A weak mid-level impulse (currently over the northern Gulf) is expected to meander across northern FL by peak heating. Somewhat strong mid-level winds (25-30 knots) associated with this feature may provide sufficient organization to thunderstorms developing across eastern central/northern FL to pose an isolated hail/wind threat. ..Moore.. 03/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A BROAD AREA CENTERED OVER THE OHIO/MID MISSISSIPPI/TENNESSEE VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... A widespread/substantial severe-weather episode is forecast across an area centered on the Ohio/Mid and Lower Mississippi/Lower Missouri/Tennessee River Valleys. Very large hail, damaging winds, and strong tornadoes are expected. ...Synopsis... Mid-morning water vapor imagery depicts an upper-level shortwave trough across the Southwest that is the leading impulse within a longwave trough building across the eastern Pacific/western CONUS. This wave is expected to overspread the southern/central Plains today before migrating into the Great Lakes region through the day tomorrow. A secondary disturbance is expected to move into the southern Plains late tomorrow evening into early Monday. At the surface, the surface low analyzed across KS is forecast to intensify as it moves northeast along a frontal zone into the Great Lakes in tandem with the leading upper disturbance. The intensification of the low will result in a cold frontal surge across the Midwest/OH Valley tomorrow afternoon and across the Mid-MS Valley to Texarkana region tomorrow evening. Scattered to widespread thunderstorm development is anticipated along and ahead of the frontal zone with the potential for widespread large hail/severe winds and several tornadoes. ...Central TX... Latest guidance suggests convection may be ongoing across central TX along/ahead of a migratory dryline early Sunday morning. The southern extent of a pronounced EML casts doubt on storm coverage/longevity. However, buoyancy and deep-layer wind shear should be supportive of supercells with an attendant severe hail/wind threat if mature updrafts can develop along the boundary as the primary upper-level trough axis passes over the region. ...IL, IN, and OH... Consensus among recent forecast guidance is that kinematic fields will steadily strengthen across the Midwest and middle OH River Valley regions through the day as the surface low intensifies. Increasing southerly flow ahead of the primary cold front should allow for dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s to spread into the region by mid-afternoon. Scattered thunderstorm development along the cold front appears likely as early as 18-20z across IL, and while a few initially discrete cells are possible, strong forcing along the front should promote upscale growth into an organized line by late afternoon. Strong low-level flow (nearly 50 knots 0-1 km BWD) may promote bowing segments and embedded mesovorticies within the line - especially across northern IN/northwest OH. 30% wind probabilities have been expanded northward to account for this potential. While this is the most probable scenario based on morning guidance, it could be complicated by any ongoing showers/thunderstorms and/or remnant outflow boundaries associated with nocturnal convection over MO late Saturday/early Sunday morning. This could limit diurnal heating/destabilization or may provide pre-frontal foci for convective initiation and promote more discrete storm modes. ...Mid-MS Valley to Texarkana region... Scattered, initially discrete supercells are expected to develop from the confluence of the OH/MS rivers southwestward into the Texarkana region Sunday afternoon along the cold front and dryline. Strong flow associated with the intensifying cyclone will promote elongated hodographs featuring nearly uni-directional wind profiles and effective bulk shear values on the order of 50-60 knots. This will promote splitting supercells with the potential for large to very large (2+ inch) hail. A more appreciable supercellular tornado threat may emerge through early evening across the lower OH Valley/mid-MS Valley where stronger veering in the lowest 1-2 km is anticipated amid weak pre-frontal isentropic ascent between 925-850 mb. While the tornado threat may be maximized through this corridor, low confidence in storm mode (due to the potential for splitting cells/destructive interactions) limits confidence in this potential to warrant higher probabilities at this time. However, upscale growth is anticipated through mid/late evening as the secondary upper disturbance migrates into the Texarkana region. Consolidation of multiple clusters into one or more organized linear segments is expected as storms push east towards the MS Valley with a gradual increase in the potential for damaging/severe winds. Additionally, low-level shear will remain favorable for embedded mesovorticies as the line pushes into western TN/northern MS/northwest AL through the overnight hours. ...Florida... A weak mid-level impulse (currently over the northern Gulf) is expected to meander across northern FL by peak heating. Somewhat strong mid-level winds (25-30 knots) associated with this feature may provide sufficient organization to thunderstorms developing across eastern central/northern FL to pose an isolated hail/wind threat. ..Moore.. 03/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A BROAD AREA CENTERED OVER THE OHIO/MID MISSISSIPPI/TENNESSEE VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... A widespread/substantial severe-weather episode is forecast across an area centered on the Ohio/Mid and Lower Mississippi/Lower Missouri/Tennessee River Valleys. Very large hail, damaging winds, and strong tornadoes are expected. ...Synopsis... Mid-morning water vapor imagery depicts an upper-level shortwave trough across the Southwest that is the leading impulse within a longwave trough building across the eastern Pacific/western CONUS. This wave is expected to overspread the southern/central Plains today before migrating into the Great Lakes region through the day tomorrow. A secondary disturbance is expected to move into the southern Plains late tomorrow evening into early Monday. At the surface, the surface low analyzed across KS is forecast to intensify as it moves northeast along a frontal zone into the Great Lakes in tandem with the leading upper disturbance. The intensification of the low will result in a cold frontal surge across the Midwest/OH Valley tomorrow afternoon and across the Mid-MS Valley to Texarkana region tomorrow evening. Scattered to widespread thunderstorm development is anticipated along and ahead of the frontal zone with the potential for widespread large hail/severe winds and several tornadoes. ...Central TX... Latest guidance suggests convection may be ongoing across central TX along/ahead of a migratory dryline early Sunday morning. The southern extent of a pronounced EML casts doubt on storm coverage/longevity. However, buoyancy and deep-layer wind shear should be supportive of supercells with an attendant severe hail/wind threat if mature updrafts can develop along the boundary as the primary upper-level trough axis passes over the region. ...IL, IN, and OH... Consensus among recent forecast guidance is that kinematic fields will steadily strengthen across the Midwest and middle OH River Valley regions through the day as the surface low intensifies. Increasing southerly flow ahead of the primary cold front should allow for dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s to spread into the region by mid-afternoon. Scattered thunderstorm development along the cold front appears likely as early as 18-20z across IL, and while a few initially discrete cells are possible, strong forcing along the front should promote upscale growth into an organized line by late afternoon. Strong low-level flow (nearly 50 knots 0-1 km BWD) may promote bowing segments and embedded mesovorticies within the line - especially across northern IN/northwest OH. 30% wind probabilities have been expanded northward to account for this potential. While this is the most probable scenario based on morning guidance, it could be complicated by any ongoing showers/thunderstorms and/or remnant outflow boundaries associated with nocturnal convection over MO late Saturday/early Sunday morning. This could limit diurnal heating/destabilization or may provide pre-frontal foci for convective initiation and promote more discrete storm modes. ...Mid-MS Valley to Texarkana region... Scattered, initially discrete supercells are expected to develop from the confluence of the OH/MS rivers southwestward into the Texarkana region Sunday afternoon along the cold front and dryline. Strong flow associated with the intensifying cyclone will promote elongated hodographs featuring nearly uni-directional wind profiles and effective bulk shear values on the order of 50-60 knots. This will promote splitting supercells with the potential for large to very large (2+ inch) hail. A more appreciable supercellular tornado threat may emerge through early evening across the lower OH Valley/mid-MS Valley where stronger veering in the lowest 1-2 km is anticipated amid weak pre-frontal isentropic ascent between 925-850 mb. While the tornado threat may be maximized through this corridor, low confidence in storm mode (due to the potential for splitting cells/destructive interactions) limits confidence in this potential to warrant higher probabilities at this time. However, upscale growth is anticipated through mid/late evening as the secondary upper disturbance migrates into the Texarkana region. Consolidation of multiple clusters into one or more organized linear segments is expected as storms push east towards the MS Valley with a gradual increase in the potential for damaging/severe winds. Additionally, low-level shear will remain favorable for embedded mesovorticies as the line pushes into western TN/northern MS/northwest AL through the overnight hours. ...Florida... A weak mid-level impulse (currently over the northern Gulf) is expected to meander across northern FL by peak heating. Somewhat strong mid-level winds (25-30 knots) associated with this feature may provide sufficient organization to thunderstorms developing across eastern central/northern FL to pose an isolated hail/wind threat. ..Moore.. 03/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A BROAD AREA CENTERED OVER THE OHIO/MID MISSISSIPPI/TENNESSEE VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... A widespread/substantial severe-weather episode is forecast across an area centered on the Ohio/Mid and Lower Mississippi/Lower Missouri/Tennessee River Valleys. Very large hail, damaging winds, and strong tornadoes are expected. ...Synopsis... Mid-morning water vapor imagery depicts an upper-level shortwave trough across the Southwest that is the leading impulse within a longwave trough building across the eastern Pacific/western CONUS. This wave is expected to overspread the southern/central Plains today before migrating into the Great Lakes region through the day tomorrow. A secondary disturbance is expected to move into the southern Plains late tomorrow evening into early Monday. At the surface, the surface low analyzed across KS is forecast to intensify as it moves northeast along a frontal zone into the Great Lakes in tandem with the leading upper disturbance. The intensification of the low will result in a cold frontal surge across the Midwest/OH Valley tomorrow afternoon and across the Mid-MS Valley to Texarkana region tomorrow evening. Scattered to widespread thunderstorm development is anticipated along and ahead of the frontal zone with the potential for widespread large hail/severe winds and several tornadoes. ...Central TX... Latest guidance suggests convection may be ongoing across central TX along/ahead of a migratory dryline early Sunday morning. The southern extent of a pronounced EML casts doubt on storm coverage/longevity. However, buoyancy and deep-layer wind shear should be supportive of supercells with an attendant severe hail/wind threat if mature updrafts can develop along the boundary as the primary upper-level trough axis passes over the region. ...IL, IN, and OH... Consensus among recent forecast guidance is that kinematic fields will steadily strengthen across the Midwest and middle OH River Valley regions through the day as the surface low intensifies. Increasing southerly flow ahead of the primary cold front should allow for dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s to spread into the region by mid-afternoon. Scattered thunderstorm development along the cold front appears likely as early as 18-20z across IL, and while a few initially discrete cells are possible, strong forcing along the front should promote upscale growth into an organized line by late afternoon. Strong low-level flow (nearly 50 knots 0-1 km BWD) may promote bowing segments and embedded mesovorticies within the line - especially across northern IN/northwest OH. 30% wind probabilities have been expanded northward to account for this potential. While this is the most probable scenario based on morning guidance, it could be complicated by any ongoing showers/thunderstorms and/or remnant outflow boundaries associated with nocturnal convection over MO late Saturday/early Sunday morning. This could limit diurnal heating/destabilization or may provide pre-frontal foci for convective initiation and promote more discrete storm modes. ...Mid-MS Valley to Texarkana region... Scattered, initially discrete supercells are expected to develop from the confluence of the OH/MS rivers southwestward into the Texarkana region Sunday afternoon along the cold front and dryline. Strong flow associated with the intensifying cyclone will promote elongated hodographs featuring nearly uni-directional wind profiles and effective bulk shear values on the order of 50-60 knots. This will promote splitting supercells with the potential for large to very large (2+ inch) hail. A more appreciable supercellular tornado threat may emerge through early evening across the lower OH Valley/mid-MS Valley where stronger veering in the lowest 1-2 km is anticipated amid weak pre-frontal isentropic ascent between 925-850 mb. While the tornado threat may be maximized through this corridor, low confidence in storm mode (due to the potential for splitting cells/destructive interactions) limits confidence in this potential to warrant higher probabilities at this time. However, upscale growth is anticipated through mid/late evening as the secondary upper disturbance migrates into the Texarkana region. Consolidation of multiple clusters into one or more organized linear segments is expected as storms push east towards the MS Valley with a gradual increase in the potential for damaging/severe winds. Additionally, low-level shear will remain favorable for embedded mesovorticies as the line pushes into western TN/northern MS/northwest AL through the overnight hours. ...Florida... A weak mid-level impulse (currently over the northern Gulf) is expected to meander across northern FL by peak heating. Somewhat strong mid-level winds (25-30 knots) associated with this feature may provide sufficient organization to thunderstorms developing across eastern central/northern FL to pose an isolated hail/wind threat. ..Moore.. 03/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A BROAD AREA CENTERED OVER THE OHIO/MID MISSISSIPPI/TENNESSEE VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... A widespread/substantial severe-weather episode is forecast across an area centered on the Ohio/Mid and Lower Mississippi/Lower Missouri/Tennessee River Valleys. Very large hail, damaging winds, and strong tornadoes are expected. ...Synopsis... Mid-morning water vapor imagery depicts an upper-level shortwave trough across the Southwest that is the leading impulse within a longwave trough building across the eastern Pacific/western CONUS. This wave is expected to overspread the southern/central Plains today before migrating into the Great Lakes region through the day tomorrow. A secondary disturbance is expected to move into the southern Plains late tomorrow evening into early Monday. At the surface, the surface low analyzed across KS is forecast to intensify as it moves northeast along a frontal zone into the Great Lakes in tandem with the leading upper disturbance. The intensification of the low will result in a cold frontal surge across the Midwest/OH Valley tomorrow afternoon and across the Mid-MS Valley to Texarkana region tomorrow evening. Scattered to widespread thunderstorm development is anticipated along and ahead of the frontal zone with the potential for widespread large hail/severe winds and several tornadoes. ...Central TX... Latest guidance suggests convection may be ongoing across central TX along/ahead of a migratory dryline early Sunday morning. The southern extent of a pronounced EML casts doubt on storm coverage/longevity. However, buoyancy and deep-layer wind shear should be supportive of supercells with an attendant severe hail/wind threat if mature updrafts can develop along the boundary as the primary upper-level trough axis passes over the region. ...IL, IN, and OH... Consensus among recent forecast guidance is that kinematic fields will steadily strengthen across the Midwest and middle OH River Valley regions through the day as the surface low intensifies. Increasing southerly flow ahead of the primary cold front should allow for dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s to spread into the region by mid-afternoon. Scattered thunderstorm development along the cold front appears likely as early as 18-20z across IL, and while a few initially discrete cells are possible, strong forcing along the front should promote upscale growth into an organized line by late afternoon. Strong low-level flow (nearly 50 knots 0-1 km BWD) may promote bowing segments and embedded mesovorticies within the line - especially across northern IN/northwest OH. 30% wind probabilities have been expanded northward to account for this potential. While this is the most probable scenario based on morning guidance, it could be complicated by any ongoing showers/thunderstorms and/or remnant outflow boundaries associated with nocturnal convection over MO late Saturday/early Sunday morning. This could limit diurnal heating/destabilization or may provide pre-frontal foci for convective initiation and promote more discrete storm modes. ...Mid-MS Valley to Texarkana region... Scattered, initially discrete supercells are expected to develop from the confluence of the OH/MS rivers southwestward into the Texarkana region Sunday afternoon along the cold front and dryline. Strong flow associated with the intensifying cyclone will promote elongated hodographs featuring nearly uni-directional wind profiles and effective bulk shear values on the order of 50-60 knots. This will promote splitting supercells with the potential for large to very large (2+ inch) hail. A more appreciable supercellular tornado threat may emerge through early evening across the lower OH Valley/mid-MS Valley where stronger veering in the lowest 1-2 km is anticipated amid weak pre-frontal isentropic ascent between 925-850 mb. While the tornado threat may be maximized through this corridor, low confidence in storm mode (due to the potential for splitting cells/destructive interactions) limits confidence in this potential to warrant higher probabilities at this time. However, upscale growth is anticipated through mid/late evening as the secondary upper disturbance migrates into the Texarkana region. Consolidation of multiple clusters into one or more organized linear segments is expected as storms push east towards the MS Valley with a gradual increase in the potential for damaging/severe winds. Additionally, low-level shear will remain favorable for embedded mesovorticies as the line pushes into western TN/northern MS/northwest AL through the overnight hours. ...Florida... A weak mid-level impulse (currently over the northern Gulf) is expected to meander across northern FL by peak heating. Somewhat strong mid-level winds (25-30 knots) associated with this feature may provide sufficient organization to thunderstorms developing across eastern central/northern FL to pose an isolated hail/wind threat. ..Moore.. 03/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A BROAD AREA CENTERED OVER THE OHIO/MID MISSISSIPPI/TENNESSEE VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... A widespread/substantial severe-weather episode is forecast across an area centered on the Ohio/Mid and Lower Mississippi/Lower Missouri/Tennessee River Valleys. Very large hail, damaging winds, and strong tornadoes are expected. ...Synopsis... Mid-morning water vapor imagery depicts an upper-level shortwave trough across the Southwest that is the leading impulse within a longwave trough building across the eastern Pacific/western CONUS. This wave is expected to overspread the southern/central Plains today before migrating into the Great Lakes region through the day tomorrow. A secondary disturbance is expected to move into the southern Plains late tomorrow evening into early Monday. At the surface, the surface low analyzed across KS is forecast to intensify as it moves northeast along a frontal zone into the Great Lakes in tandem with the leading upper disturbance. The intensification of the low will result in a cold frontal surge across the Midwest/OH Valley tomorrow afternoon and across the Mid-MS Valley to Texarkana region tomorrow evening. Scattered to widespread thunderstorm development is anticipated along and ahead of the frontal zone with the potential for widespread large hail/severe winds and several tornadoes. ...Central TX... Latest guidance suggests convection may be ongoing across central TX along/ahead of a migratory dryline early Sunday morning. The southern extent of a pronounced EML casts doubt on storm coverage/longevity. However, buoyancy and deep-layer wind shear should be supportive of supercells with an attendant severe hail/wind threat if mature updrafts can develop along the boundary as the primary upper-level trough axis passes over the region. ...IL, IN, and OH... Consensus among recent forecast guidance is that kinematic fields will steadily strengthen across the Midwest and middle OH River Valley regions through the day as the surface low intensifies. Increasing southerly flow ahead of the primary cold front should allow for dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s to spread into the region by mid-afternoon. Scattered thunderstorm development along the cold front appears likely as early as 18-20z across IL, and while a few initially discrete cells are possible, strong forcing along the front should promote upscale growth into an organized line by late afternoon. Strong low-level flow (nearly 50 knots 0-1 km BWD) may promote bowing segments and embedded mesovorticies within the line - especially across northern IN/northwest OH. 30% wind probabilities have been expanded northward to account for this potential. While this is the most probable scenario based on morning guidance, it could be complicated by any ongoing showers/thunderstorms and/or remnant outflow boundaries associated with nocturnal convection over MO late Saturday/early Sunday morning. This could limit diurnal heating/destabilization or may provide pre-frontal foci for convective initiation and promote more discrete storm modes. ...Mid-MS Valley to Texarkana region... Scattered, initially discrete supercells are expected to develop from the confluence of the OH/MS rivers southwestward into the Texarkana region Sunday afternoon along the cold front and dryline. Strong flow associated with the intensifying cyclone will promote elongated hodographs featuring nearly uni-directional wind profiles and effective bulk shear values on the order of 50-60 knots. This will promote splitting supercells with the potential for large to very large (2+ inch) hail. A more appreciable supercellular tornado threat may emerge through early evening across the lower OH Valley/mid-MS Valley where stronger veering in the lowest 1-2 km is anticipated amid weak pre-frontal isentropic ascent between 925-850 mb. While the tornado threat may be maximized through this corridor, low confidence in storm mode (due to the potential for splitting cells/destructive interactions) limits confidence in this potential to warrant higher probabilities at this time. However, upscale growth is anticipated through mid/late evening as the secondary upper disturbance migrates into the Texarkana region. Consolidation of multiple clusters into one or more organized linear segments is expected as storms push east towards the MS Valley with a gradual increase in the potential for damaging/severe winds. Additionally, low-level shear will remain favorable for embedded mesovorticies as the line pushes into western TN/northern MS/northwest AL through the overnight hours. ...Florida... A weak mid-level impulse (currently over the northern Gulf) is expected to meander across northern FL by peak heating. Somewhat strong mid-level winds (25-30 knots) associated with this feature may provide sufficient organization to thunderstorms developing across eastern central/northern FL to pose an isolated hail/wind threat. ..Moore.. 03/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A BROAD AREA CENTERED OVER THE OHIO/MID MISSISSIPPI/TENNESSEE VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... A widespread/substantial severe-weather episode is forecast across an area centered on the Ohio/Mid and Lower Mississippi/Lower Missouri/Tennessee River Valleys. Very large hail, damaging winds, and strong tornadoes are expected. ...Synopsis... Mid-morning water vapor imagery depicts an upper-level shortwave trough across the Southwest that is the leading impulse within a longwave trough building across the eastern Pacific/western CONUS. This wave is expected to overspread the southern/central Plains today before migrating into the Great Lakes region through the day tomorrow. A secondary disturbance is expected to move into the southern Plains late tomorrow evening into early Monday. At the surface, the surface low analyzed across KS is forecast to intensify as it moves northeast along a frontal zone into the Great Lakes in tandem with the leading upper disturbance. The intensification of the low will result in a cold frontal surge across the Midwest/OH Valley tomorrow afternoon and across the Mid-MS Valley to Texarkana region tomorrow evening. Scattered to widespread thunderstorm development is anticipated along and ahead of the frontal zone with the potential for widespread large hail/severe winds and several tornadoes. ...Central TX... Latest guidance suggests convection may be ongoing across central TX along/ahead of a migratory dryline early Sunday morning. The southern extent of a pronounced EML casts doubt on storm coverage/longevity. However, buoyancy and deep-layer wind shear should be supportive of supercells with an attendant severe hail/wind threat if mature updrafts can develop along the boundary as the primary upper-level trough axis passes over the region. ...IL, IN, and OH... Consensus among recent forecast guidance is that kinematic fields will steadily strengthen across the Midwest and middle OH River Valley regions through the day as the surface low intensifies. Increasing southerly flow ahead of the primary cold front should allow for dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s to spread into the region by mid-afternoon. Scattered thunderstorm development along the cold front appears likely as early as 18-20z across IL, and while a few initially discrete cells are possible, strong forcing along the front should promote upscale growth into an organized line by late afternoon. Strong low-level flow (nearly 50 knots 0-1 km BWD) may promote bowing segments and embedded mesovorticies within the line - especially across northern IN/northwest OH. 30% wind probabilities have been expanded northward to account for this potential. While this is the most probable scenario based on morning guidance, it could be complicated by any ongoing showers/thunderstorms and/or remnant outflow boundaries associated with nocturnal convection over MO late Saturday/early Sunday morning. This could limit diurnal heating/destabilization or may provide pre-frontal foci for convective initiation and promote more discrete storm modes. ...Mid-MS Valley to Texarkana region... Scattered, initially discrete supercells are expected to develop from the confluence of the OH/MS rivers southwestward into the Texarkana region Sunday afternoon along the cold front and dryline. Strong flow associated with the intensifying cyclone will promote elongated hodographs featuring nearly uni-directional wind profiles and effective bulk shear values on the order of 50-60 knots. This will promote splitting supercells with the potential for large to very large (2+ inch) hail. A more appreciable supercellular tornado threat may emerge through early evening across the lower OH Valley/mid-MS Valley where stronger veering in the lowest 1-2 km is anticipated amid weak pre-frontal isentropic ascent between 925-850 mb. While the tornado threat may be maximized through this corridor, low confidence in storm mode (due to the potential for splitting cells/destructive interactions) limits confidence in this potential to warrant higher probabilities at this time. However, upscale growth is anticipated through mid/late evening as the secondary upper disturbance migrates into the Texarkana region. Consolidation of multiple clusters into one or more organized linear segments is expected as storms push east towards the MS Valley with a gradual increase in the potential for damaging/severe winds. Additionally, low-level shear will remain favorable for embedded mesovorticies as the line pushes into western TN/northern MS/northwest AL through the overnight hours. ...Florida... A weak mid-level impulse (currently over the northern Gulf) is expected to meander across northern FL by peak heating. Somewhat strong mid-level winds (25-30 knots) associated with this feature may provide sufficient organization to thunderstorms developing across eastern central/northern FL to pose an isolated hail/wind threat. ..Moore.. 03/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A BROAD AREA CENTERED OVER THE OHIO/MID MISSISSIPPI/TENNESSEE VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... A widespread/substantial severe-weather episode is forecast across an area centered on the Ohio/Mid and Lower Mississippi/Lower Missouri/Tennessee River Valleys. Very large hail, damaging winds, and strong tornadoes are expected. ...Synopsis... Mid-morning water vapor imagery depicts an upper-level shortwave trough across the Southwest that is the leading impulse within a longwave trough building across the eastern Pacific/western CONUS. This wave is expected to overspread the southern/central Plains today before migrating into the Great Lakes region through the day tomorrow. A secondary disturbance is expected to move into the southern Plains late tomorrow evening into early Monday. At the surface, the surface low analyzed across KS is forecast to intensify as it moves northeast along a frontal zone into the Great Lakes in tandem with the leading upper disturbance. The intensification of the low will result in a cold frontal surge across the Midwest/OH Valley tomorrow afternoon and across the Mid-MS Valley to Texarkana region tomorrow evening. Scattered to widespread thunderstorm development is anticipated along and ahead of the frontal zone with the potential for widespread large hail/severe winds and several tornadoes. ...Central TX... Latest guidance suggests convection may be ongoing across central TX along/ahead of a migratory dryline early Sunday morning. The southern extent of a pronounced EML casts doubt on storm coverage/longevity. However, buoyancy and deep-layer wind shear should be supportive of supercells with an attendant severe hail/wind threat if mature updrafts can develop along the boundary as the primary upper-level trough axis passes over the region. ...IL, IN, and OH... Consensus among recent forecast guidance is that kinematic fields will steadily strengthen across the Midwest and middle OH River Valley regions through the day as the surface low intensifies. Increasing southerly flow ahead of the primary cold front should allow for dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s to spread into the region by mid-afternoon. Scattered thunderstorm development along the cold front appears likely as early as 18-20z across IL, and while a few initially discrete cells are possible, strong forcing along the front should promote upscale growth into an organized line by late afternoon. Strong low-level flow (nearly 50 knots 0-1 km BWD) may promote bowing segments and embedded mesovorticies within the line - especially across northern IN/northwest OH. 30% wind probabilities have been expanded northward to account for this potential. While this is the most probable scenario based on morning guidance, it could be complicated by any ongoing showers/thunderstorms and/or remnant outflow boundaries associated with nocturnal convection over MO late Saturday/early Sunday morning. This could limit diurnal heating/destabilization or may provide pre-frontal foci for convective initiation and promote more discrete storm modes. ...Mid-MS Valley to Texarkana region... Scattered, initially discrete supercells are expected to develop from the confluence of the OH/MS rivers southwestward into the Texarkana region Sunday afternoon along the cold front and dryline. Strong flow associated with the intensifying cyclone will promote elongated hodographs featuring nearly uni-directional wind profiles and effective bulk shear values on the order of 50-60 knots. This will promote splitting supercells with the potential for large to very large (2+ inch) hail. A more appreciable supercellular tornado threat may emerge through early evening across the lower OH Valley/mid-MS Valley where stronger veering in the lowest 1-2 km is anticipated amid weak pre-frontal isentropic ascent between 925-850 mb. While the tornado threat may be maximized through this corridor, low confidence in storm mode (due to the potential for splitting cells/destructive interactions) limits confidence in this potential to warrant higher probabilities at this time. However, upscale growth is anticipated through mid/late evening as the secondary upper disturbance migrates into the Texarkana region. Consolidation of multiple clusters into one or more organized linear segments is expected as storms push east towards the MS Valley with a gradual increase in the potential for damaging/severe winds. Additionally, low-level shear will remain favorable for embedded mesovorticies as the line pushes into western TN/northern MS/northwest AL through the overnight hours. ...Florida... A weak mid-level impulse (currently over the northern Gulf) is expected to meander across northern FL by peak heating. Somewhat strong mid-level winds (25-30 knots) associated with this feature may provide sufficient organization to thunderstorms developing across eastern central/northern FL to pose an isolated hail/wind threat. ..Moore.. 03/29/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 AM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025 Valid 291700Z - 301200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO PARTS OF WESTERN TEXAS... Morning visible satellite shows modest cloud cover overspreading portions of the southern High Plains (mainly New Mexico), which may inhibit robust boundary-layer mixing to a degree. Nonetheless, adequate mixing should still take place, in tandem with increasing surface westerly isallobaric flow due to the developing Plains cyclone, to promote widespread Elevated to potentially Critical fire weather conditions. Only slight adjustments have been made to the Critical highlights in the southern High Plains to reflect the latest guidance consensus. Also, surface observations depict the cold front already impinging on the Kansas/Oklahoma border, promoting relatively cooler/moist conditions to the area. As such, Elevated highlights have been trimmed in this area. Boundary-layer heating continues across portions of the Mid Atlantic, despite the presence of cloud cover, with surface observations showing RH (currently 40-45 percent) continuing to drop. Therefore, Elevated highlights have been maintained. ..Squitieri.. 03/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0130 AM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a large-scale trough over the West, a midlevel west-southwesterly jet streak will cross the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains during the day. At the same time, a lee cyclone will persist over the central Plains, while a related dryline sharpens over the southern Plains. ...Southern/Eastern New Mexico into Western Texas... West of the dryline, strengthening downslope flow will contribute to deep boundary-layer mixing, with RH falling into the single digits to lower/middle teens. A modest pressure gradient peripheral to the lee cyclone, and deep mixing into the strong flow aloft, will favor 20-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts). This combination of warm, dry, and windy conditions will yield critical fire-weather conditions during the afternoon. ...Mid-Atlantic... Along the northwestern periphery of an expansive surface high over the western Atlantic, a modest pressure gradient and breezy/gusty west-southwesterly surface winds will develop across the Mid-Atlantic. Here, temperatures will climb into the upper 70s/lower 80s F while RH falls to around 30 percent during the afternoon. Given dry/receptive fuels and the expectation for minimal precipitation across the area tonight, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 AM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025 Valid 291700Z - 301200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO PARTS OF WESTERN TEXAS... Morning visible satellite shows modest cloud cover overspreading portions of the southern High Plains (mainly New Mexico), which may inhibit robust boundary-layer mixing to a degree. Nonetheless, adequate mixing should still take place, in tandem with increasing surface westerly isallobaric flow due to the developing Plains cyclone, to promote widespread Elevated to potentially Critical fire weather conditions. Only slight adjustments have been made to the Critical highlights in the southern High Plains to reflect the latest guidance consensus. Also, surface observations depict the cold front already impinging on the Kansas/Oklahoma border, promoting relatively cooler/moist conditions to the area. As such, Elevated highlights have been trimmed in this area. Boundary-layer heating continues across portions of the Mid Atlantic, despite the presence of cloud cover, with surface observations showing RH (currently 40-45 percent) continuing to drop. Therefore, Elevated highlights have been maintained. ..Squitieri.. 03/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0130 AM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a large-scale trough over the West, a midlevel west-southwesterly jet streak will cross the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains during the day. At the same time, a lee cyclone will persist over the central Plains, while a related dryline sharpens over the southern Plains. ...Southern/Eastern New Mexico into Western Texas... West of the dryline, strengthening downslope flow will contribute to deep boundary-layer mixing, with RH falling into the single digits to lower/middle teens. A modest pressure gradient peripheral to the lee cyclone, and deep mixing into the strong flow aloft, will favor 20-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts). This combination of warm, dry, and windy conditions will yield critical fire-weather conditions during the afternoon. ...Mid-Atlantic... Along the northwestern periphery of an expansive surface high over the western Atlantic, a modest pressure gradient and breezy/gusty west-southwesterly surface winds will develop across the Mid-Atlantic. Here, temperatures will climb into the upper 70s/lower 80s F while RH falls to around 30 percent during the afternoon. Given dry/receptive fuels and the expectation for minimal precipitation across the area tonight, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 AM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025 Valid 291700Z - 301200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO PARTS OF WESTERN TEXAS... Morning visible satellite shows modest cloud cover overspreading portions of the southern High Plains (mainly New Mexico), which may inhibit robust boundary-layer mixing to a degree. Nonetheless, adequate mixing should still take place, in tandem with increasing surface westerly isallobaric flow due to the developing Plains cyclone, to promote widespread Elevated to potentially Critical fire weather conditions. Only slight adjustments have been made to the Critical highlights in the southern High Plains to reflect the latest guidance consensus. Also, surface observations depict the cold front already impinging on the Kansas/Oklahoma border, promoting relatively cooler/moist conditions to the area. As such, Elevated highlights have been trimmed in this area. Boundary-layer heating continues across portions of the Mid Atlantic, despite the presence of cloud cover, with surface observations showing RH (currently 40-45 percent) continuing to drop. Therefore, Elevated highlights have been maintained. ..Squitieri.. 03/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0130 AM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a large-scale trough over the West, a midlevel west-southwesterly jet streak will cross the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains during the day. At the same time, a lee cyclone will persist over the central Plains, while a related dryline sharpens over the southern Plains. ...Southern/Eastern New Mexico into Western Texas... West of the dryline, strengthening downslope flow will contribute to deep boundary-layer mixing, with RH falling into the single digits to lower/middle teens. A modest pressure gradient peripheral to the lee cyclone, and deep mixing into the strong flow aloft, will favor 20-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts). This combination of warm, dry, and windy conditions will yield critical fire-weather conditions during the afternoon. ...Mid-Atlantic... Along the northwestern periphery of an expansive surface high over the western Atlantic, a modest pressure gradient and breezy/gusty west-southwesterly surface winds will develop across the Mid-Atlantic. Here, temperatures will climb into the upper 70s/lower 80s F while RH falls to around 30 percent during the afternoon. Given dry/receptive fuels and the expectation for minimal precipitation across the area tonight, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 AM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025 Valid 291700Z - 301200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO PARTS OF WESTERN TEXAS... Morning visible satellite shows modest cloud cover overspreading portions of the southern High Plains (mainly New Mexico), which may inhibit robust boundary-layer mixing to a degree. Nonetheless, adequate mixing should still take place, in tandem with increasing surface westerly isallobaric flow due to the developing Plains cyclone, to promote widespread Elevated to potentially Critical fire weather conditions. Only slight adjustments have been made to the Critical highlights in the southern High Plains to reflect the latest guidance consensus. Also, surface observations depict the cold front already impinging on the Kansas/Oklahoma border, promoting relatively cooler/moist conditions to the area. As such, Elevated highlights have been trimmed in this area. Boundary-layer heating continues across portions of the Mid Atlantic, despite the presence of cloud cover, with surface observations showing RH (currently 40-45 percent) continuing to drop. Therefore, Elevated highlights have been maintained. ..Squitieri.. 03/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0130 AM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a large-scale trough over the West, a midlevel west-southwesterly jet streak will cross the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains during the day. At the same time, a lee cyclone will persist over the central Plains, while a related dryline sharpens over the southern Plains. ...Southern/Eastern New Mexico into Western Texas... West of the dryline, strengthening downslope flow will contribute to deep boundary-layer mixing, with RH falling into the single digits to lower/middle teens. A modest pressure gradient peripheral to the lee cyclone, and deep mixing into the strong flow aloft, will favor 20-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts). This combination of warm, dry, and windy conditions will yield critical fire-weather conditions during the afternoon. ...Mid-Atlantic... Along the northwestern periphery of an expansive surface high over the western Atlantic, a modest pressure gradient and breezy/gusty west-southwesterly surface winds will develop across the Mid-Atlantic. Here, temperatures will climb into the upper 70s/lower 80s F while RH falls to around 30 percent during the afternoon. Given dry/receptive fuels and the expectation for minimal precipitation across the area tonight, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 AM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025 Valid 291700Z - 301200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO PARTS OF WESTERN TEXAS... Morning visible satellite shows modest cloud cover overspreading portions of the southern High Plains (mainly New Mexico), which may inhibit robust boundary-layer mixing to a degree. Nonetheless, adequate mixing should still take place, in tandem with increasing surface westerly isallobaric flow due to the developing Plains cyclone, to promote widespread Elevated to potentially Critical fire weather conditions. Only slight adjustments have been made to the Critical highlights in the southern High Plains to reflect the latest guidance consensus. Also, surface observations depict the cold front already impinging on the Kansas/Oklahoma border, promoting relatively cooler/moist conditions to the area. As such, Elevated highlights have been trimmed in this area. Boundary-layer heating continues across portions of the Mid Atlantic, despite the presence of cloud cover, with surface observations showing RH (currently 40-45 percent) continuing to drop. Therefore, Elevated highlights have been maintained. ..Squitieri.. 03/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0130 AM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a large-scale trough over the West, a midlevel west-southwesterly jet streak will cross the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains during the day. At the same time, a lee cyclone will persist over the central Plains, while a related dryline sharpens over the southern Plains. ...Southern/Eastern New Mexico into Western Texas... West of the dryline, strengthening downslope flow will contribute to deep boundary-layer mixing, with RH falling into the single digits to lower/middle teens. A modest pressure gradient peripheral to the lee cyclone, and deep mixing into the strong flow aloft, will favor 20-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts). This combination of warm, dry, and windy conditions will yield critical fire-weather conditions during the afternoon. ...Mid-Atlantic... Along the northwestern periphery of an expansive surface high over the western Atlantic, a modest pressure gradient and breezy/gusty west-southwesterly surface winds will develop across the Mid-Atlantic. Here, temperatures will climb into the upper 70s/lower 80s F while RH falls to around 30 percent during the afternoon. Given dry/receptive fuels and the expectation for minimal precipitation across the area tonight, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 AM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025 Valid 291700Z - 301200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO PARTS OF WESTERN TEXAS... Morning visible satellite shows modest cloud cover overspreading portions of the southern High Plains (mainly New Mexico), which may inhibit robust boundary-layer mixing to a degree. Nonetheless, adequate mixing should still take place, in tandem with increasing surface westerly isallobaric flow due to the developing Plains cyclone, to promote widespread Elevated to potentially Critical fire weather conditions. Only slight adjustments have been made to the Critical highlights in the southern High Plains to reflect the latest guidance consensus. Also, surface observations depict the cold front already impinging on the Kansas/Oklahoma border, promoting relatively cooler/moist conditions to the area. As such, Elevated highlights have been trimmed in this area. Boundary-layer heating continues across portions of the Mid Atlantic, despite the presence of cloud cover, with surface observations showing RH (currently 40-45 percent) continuing to drop. Therefore, Elevated highlights have been maintained. ..Squitieri.. 03/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0130 AM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a large-scale trough over the West, a midlevel west-southwesterly jet streak will cross the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains during the day. At the same time, a lee cyclone will persist over the central Plains, while a related dryline sharpens over the southern Plains. ...Southern/Eastern New Mexico into Western Texas... West of the dryline, strengthening downslope flow will contribute to deep boundary-layer mixing, with RH falling into the single digits to lower/middle teens. A modest pressure gradient peripheral to the lee cyclone, and deep mixing into the strong flow aloft, will favor 20-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts). This combination of warm, dry, and windy conditions will yield critical fire-weather conditions during the afternoon. ...Mid-Atlantic... Along the northwestern periphery of an expansive surface high over the western Atlantic, a modest pressure gradient and breezy/gusty west-southwesterly surface winds will develop across the Mid-Atlantic. Here, temperatures will climb into the upper 70s/lower 80s F while RH falls to around 30 percent during the afternoon. Given dry/receptive fuels and the expectation for minimal precipitation across the area tonight, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 AM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025 Valid 291700Z - 301200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO PARTS OF WESTERN TEXAS... Morning visible satellite shows modest cloud cover overspreading portions of the southern High Plains (mainly New Mexico), which may inhibit robust boundary-layer mixing to a degree. Nonetheless, adequate mixing should still take place, in tandem with increasing surface westerly isallobaric flow due to the developing Plains cyclone, to promote widespread Elevated to potentially Critical fire weather conditions. Only slight adjustments have been made to the Critical highlights in the southern High Plains to reflect the latest guidance consensus. Also, surface observations depict the cold front already impinging on the Kansas/Oklahoma border, promoting relatively cooler/moist conditions to the area. As such, Elevated highlights have been trimmed in this area. Boundary-layer heating continues across portions of the Mid Atlantic, despite the presence of cloud cover, with surface observations showing RH (currently 40-45 percent) continuing to drop. Therefore, Elevated highlights have been maintained. ..Squitieri.. 03/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0130 AM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a large-scale trough over the West, a midlevel west-southwesterly jet streak will cross the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains during the day. At the same time, a lee cyclone will persist over the central Plains, while a related dryline sharpens over the southern Plains. ...Southern/Eastern New Mexico into Western Texas... West of the dryline, strengthening downslope flow will contribute to deep boundary-layer mixing, with RH falling into the single digits to lower/middle teens. A modest pressure gradient peripheral to the lee cyclone, and deep mixing into the strong flow aloft, will favor 20-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts). This combination of warm, dry, and windy conditions will yield critical fire-weather conditions during the afternoon. ...Mid-Atlantic... Along the northwestern periphery of an expansive surface high over the western Atlantic, a modest pressure gradient and breezy/gusty west-southwesterly surface winds will develop across the Mid-Atlantic. Here, temperatures will climb into the upper 70s/lower 80s F while RH falls to around 30 percent during the afternoon. Given dry/receptive fuels and the expectation for minimal precipitation across the area tonight, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 AM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025 Valid 291700Z - 301200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO PARTS OF WESTERN TEXAS... Morning visible satellite shows modest cloud cover overspreading portions of the southern High Plains (mainly New Mexico), which may inhibit robust boundary-layer mixing to a degree. Nonetheless, adequate mixing should still take place, in tandem with increasing surface westerly isallobaric flow due to the developing Plains cyclone, to promote widespread Elevated to potentially Critical fire weather conditions. Only slight adjustments have been made to the Critical highlights in the southern High Plains to reflect the latest guidance consensus. Also, surface observations depict the cold front already impinging on the Kansas/Oklahoma border, promoting relatively cooler/moist conditions to the area. As such, Elevated highlights have been trimmed in this area. Boundary-layer heating continues across portions of the Mid Atlantic, despite the presence of cloud cover, with surface observations showing RH (currently 40-45 percent) continuing to drop. Therefore, Elevated highlights have been maintained. ..Squitieri.. 03/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0130 AM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a large-scale trough over the West, a midlevel west-southwesterly jet streak will cross the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains during the day. At the same time, a lee cyclone will persist over the central Plains, while a related dryline sharpens over the southern Plains. ...Southern/Eastern New Mexico into Western Texas... West of the dryline, strengthening downslope flow will contribute to deep boundary-layer mixing, with RH falling into the single digits to lower/middle teens. A modest pressure gradient peripheral to the lee cyclone, and deep mixing into the strong flow aloft, will favor 20-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts). This combination of warm, dry, and windy conditions will yield critical fire-weather conditions during the afternoon. ...Mid-Atlantic... Along the northwestern periphery of an expansive surface high over the western Atlantic, a modest pressure gradient and breezy/gusty west-southwesterly surface winds will develop across the Mid-Atlantic. Here, temperatures will climb into the upper 70s/lower 80s F while RH falls to around 30 percent during the afternoon. Given dry/receptive fuels and the expectation for minimal precipitation across the area tonight, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more