Aggregator

WW 0067 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0067 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

No watches are valid as of Sat Mar 29 23:42:02 UTC 2025.

MD 0286 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR OKLAHOMA...SOUTHEAST KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0286 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0640 PM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025 Areas affected...Oklahoma...Southeast Kansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 292340Z - 300215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...A severe threat, with a potential for large hail, severe wind gusts, and tornadoes, is expected to develop across parts of Oklahoma and southeast Kansas over the next couple of hours. Weather watch issuance will likely be needed. DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a low in far southwestern Oklahoma, with a cold front located in western and northern Oklahoma. Ahead of the front, a moist airmass is present with surface dewpoints in the 50s and lower 60s F. Over the last hour, low-level convergence has markedly increased along the front. In addition, a shortwave is analyzed by the RAP over the southern High Plains. As this feature approaches early this evening, large-scale ascent will increase. This, along with the increasing low-level convergence, will provide support for thunderstorm development along the front from western Oklahoma into south-central and southeastern Kansas. Convective initiation is likely between 00Z and 01Z, with coverage gradually expanding across the moist airmass in central Oklahoma. Within this corridor, RAP forecast soundings early this evening have MLCAPE near 2500 J/kg, 0-6 km shear around 40 knots, and 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km. This will be favorable for supercells with large hail. The more intense supercells could produce hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter, with the hail threat maximized from western Oklahoma into north-central Oklahoma. Organized storms will also likely have a wind-damage threat. As the supercells move eastward into a developing low-level jet later this evening, a tornado threat will also be likely. ..Broyles/Mosier.. 03/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN... LAT...LON 36649837 35529932 34889954 34439942 34189886 34139824 34469758 35989669 36429620 37079548 37509489 37889456 38379470 38689534 38069679 37379764 36649837 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

MD 0285 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0285 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0635 PM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025 Areas affected...Portions of north and central Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 292335Z - 300130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...The severe risk will increase in coverage over the next few hours. Primary concerns are large hail and severe winds gusts. Trends are being monitored for a possible watch. DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis shows a north/south-oriented dryline extending across portions of north and central Texas, where isolated thunderstorms are evolving. These initial high-based/isolated storms will be capable of producing large hail and locally severe gusts, given steep deep-layer lapse rates and around 40 kt of effective shear -- characterized by a mostly straight hodograph. With time, deep-layer ascent accompanying the left exit region of an upper jet streak will overspread the dryline, favoring increasing thunderstorm development into this evening. Large hail will still be a concern, though a tendency for upscale growth into a cluster of storms will favor an increasing severe-wind risk as well. Trends are being monitored for a possible watch issuance. ..Weinman/Mosier.. 03/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT... LAT...LON 31729924 32589870 33259853 33729824 33959782 33959734 33819673 33499644 32889652 32109704 31039810 30719877 30679931 31019983 31269976 31729924 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

MD 0284 CONCERNING FREEZING RAIN FOR NORTHEAST WI INTO SOUTHERN UPPER MI AND NORTHERN LOWER MI
Mesoscale Discussion 0284 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0409 PM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025 Areas affected...Northeast WI into southern upper MI and northern lower MI Concerning...Freezing rain Valid 292109Z - 300115Z SUMMARY...An increase in freezing rain rates is possible into the evening. DISCUSSION...Some increase in precipitation has been noted this afternoon from northeast WI into northern lower MI, in advance of a low-amplitude midlevel shortwave trough moving into western WI. Modest isentropic ascent will continue to support light to moderate precipitation in an west-east band across the region into the evening, with some tendency for northward expansion with time. The influence of a cold surface ridge over parts of Ontario/Quebec will maintain cold surface temperatures into the evening, while modest warm advection continues aloft. This should generally maintain a favorable thermodynamic profile for freezing rain, though some mixing with sleet will be possible. Ice accretion rates could occasionally exceed 0.03 inches per hour, as noted in recent METAR observations from Alpena (KAPN). Another wave of moderate to locally heavy precipitation could approach western and northern parts of the MCD area late tonight. ..Dean.. 03/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...APX...MQT...GRB... LAT...LON 45918798 45998565 45578315 44898275 44478289 44398360 44898630 44608806 44618980 44878967 45688920 45918798 Read more

MD 0283 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST KANSAS...SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...FAR SOUTHWEST IOWA...FAR NORTHWEST MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 0283 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 PM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025 Areas affected...North-central/northeast Kansas...southeast Nebraska...far southwest Iowa...far Northwest Missouri Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 292051Z - 292245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered storms may develop in the next 1-3 hours. Large hail and damaging winds would be the primary threats. DISCUSSION...Tied to a lead shortwave trough in the central Plains, cumulus have been deepening along a dryline in central Kansas. Despite somewhat limited moisture (dewpoints in the upper 50s F), surface heating and forcing from the trough may promote storm initiation within the next 1-3 hours. Steep mid-level lapse rates and 40-45 kts of effective shear orthogonal to the dryline would promote discrete storms capable of large hail and strong/damaging winds. Low-level hodograph curvature is sufficient for some low-level rotation and potentially a brief tornado, but a generally dry boundary layer will likely limit that threat. ..Wendt/Smith.. 03/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID... LAT...LON 38509735 39569767 40109759 40729641 40819596 40659558 40049532 39459533 38509735 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

MD 0282 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN NE INTO SOUTHERN SD
Mesoscale Discussion 0282 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025 Areas affected...Parts of northern NE into southern SD Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 291933Z - 292230Z SUMMARY...Occasional snow rates of locally greater than 1 inch per hour are possible this afternoon. DISCUSSION...A band of moderate to locally heavy precipitation is ongoing early this afternoon from western NE into western/central SD, with observations indicating a mix of snow, sleet, and rain/freezing rain ongoing across the region. This precipitation band is associated with a negatively tilted midlevel shortwave trough ejecting northeastward across central Great Plains. Frontogenesis near/above 700 mb will continue to support strong midlevel ascent that will extend through the dendritic growth zone, resulting the potential for at least localized heavy snow rates this afternoon. Marginal low-level temperatures will tend to delay the changeover to snow and limit snow-to-liquid ratios in some areas, but snow may increase near/above 1 inch per hour in areas that experience the heaviest precip rates. In addition, weak MUCAPE will support potential for occasional lightning and convective enhancement of rates along the eastern periphery of heavier precipitation, as the primary midlevel vorticity maximum moves northeastward. Some areas outside of the heaviest snow band may continue to experience occasional freezing rain and/or sleet through the afternoon. ..Dean.. 03/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR... LAT...LON 42820171 43680095 44230015 44339917 43969889 43509892 42819954 42000045 41950095 41990113 42000161 42130179 42820171 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 PM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025 Valid 311200Z - 061200Z The first few days within the extended period will be busy fire weather wise across portions of the southern High Plains, as a series of mid-level troughs will overspread the region and support multiple rounds of surface troughing/cyclone development. As this occurs, dry downslope flow, in tandem with isallobaric westerly surface flow, and downward momentum transport within a mixed boundary layer, will all support dry/windy conditions Days 3-5 (Monday-Wednesday). These dry/windy conditions are expected to exceed Critical thresholds on Tuesday and Wednesday as an 80-100 kt mid-level jet streak overspreads the southern High Plains, where 70% Critical probabilities have been introduced. Guidance consensus suggests that Day 4/Tuesday will be the worst day in the series, as the core of the aforementioned low-level jet will overspread the New Mexico/Texas border by afternoon peak heating, and the surface low strengthens to 986 mb over southwestern Kansas. Sustained westerly surface winds may exceed 30 mph amid 10-20 percent RH across much of eastern New Mexico into western Texas behind a dryline. Given very dry fuels and no forecast rainfall to dampen these fuels, widespread high-end Critical conditions are likely, with at least sporadic Extremely Critical conditions possible. Thereafter, dry conditions should persist across the southern High Plains through the remainder of the week. At least occasionally breezy conditions are likely, though low chances for widespread Critical conditions precludes Critical probabilities at this time. Still, Elevated highlights may be needed for portions of New Mexico into western Texas by the Days 1-2 time frame. ..Squitieri.. 03/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 PM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025 Valid 311200Z - 061200Z The first few days within the extended period will be busy fire weather wise across portions of the southern High Plains, as a series of mid-level troughs will overspread the region and support multiple rounds of surface troughing/cyclone development. As this occurs, dry downslope flow, in tandem with isallobaric westerly surface flow, and downward momentum transport within a mixed boundary layer, will all support dry/windy conditions Days 3-5 (Monday-Wednesday). These dry/windy conditions are expected to exceed Critical thresholds on Tuesday and Wednesday as an 80-100 kt mid-level jet streak overspreads the southern High Plains, where 70% Critical probabilities have been introduced. Guidance consensus suggests that Day 4/Tuesday will be the worst day in the series, as the core of the aforementioned low-level jet will overspread the New Mexico/Texas border by afternoon peak heating, and the surface low strengthens to 986 mb over southwestern Kansas. Sustained westerly surface winds may exceed 30 mph amid 10-20 percent RH across much of eastern New Mexico into western Texas behind a dryline. Given very dry fuels and no forecast rainfall to dampen these fuels, widespread high-end Critical conditions are likely, with at least sporadic Extremely Critical conditions possible. Thereafter, dry conditions should persist across the southern High Plains through the remainder of the week. At least occasionally breezy conditions are likely, though low chances for widespread Critical conditions precludes Critical probabilities at this time. Still, Elevated highlights may be needed for portions of New Mexico into western Texas by the Days 1-2 time frame. ..Squitieri.. 03/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 PM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025 Valid 311200Z - 061200Z The first few days within the extended period will be busy fire weather wise across portions of the southern High Plains, as a series of mid-level troughs will overspread the region and support multiple rounds of surface troughing/cyclone development. As this occurs, dry downslope flow, in tandem with isallobaric westerly surface flow, and downward momentum transport within a mixed boundary layer, will all support dry/windy conditions Days 3-5 (Monday-Wednesday). These dry/windy conditions are expected to exceed Critical thresholds on Tuesday and Wednesday as an 80-100 kt mid-level jet streak overspreads the southern High Plains, where 70% Critical probabilities have been introduced. Guidance consensus suggests that Day 4/Tuesday will be the worst day in the series, as the core of the aforementioned low-level jet will overspread the New Mexico/Texas border by afternoon peak heating, and the surface low strengthens to 986 mb over southwestern Kansas. Sustained westerly surface winds may exceed 30 mph amid 10-20 percent RH across much of eastern New Mexico into western Texas behind a dryline. Given very dry fuels and no forecast rainfall to dampen these fuels, widespread high-end Critical conditions are likely, with at least sporadic Extremely Critical conditions possible. Thereafter, dry conditions should persist across the southern High Plains through the remainder of the week. At least occasionally breezy conditions are likely, though low chances for widespread Critical conditions precludes Critical probabilities at this time. Still, Elevated highlights may be needed for portions of New Mexico into western Texas by the Days 1-2 time frame. ..Squitieri.. 03/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 PM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025 Valid 311200Z - 061200Z The first few days within the extended period will be busy fire weather wise across portions of the southern High Plains, as a series of mid-level troughs will overspread the region and support multiple rounds of surface troughing/cyclone development. As this occurs, dry downslope flow, in tandem with isallobaric westerly surface flow, and downward momentum transport within a mixed boundary layer, will all support dry/windy conditions Days 3-5 (Monday-Wednesday). These dry/windy conditions are expected to exceed Critical thresholds on Tuesday and Wednesday as an 80-100 kt mid-level jet streak overspreads the southern High Plains, where 70% Critical probabilities have been introduced. Guidance consensus suggests that Day 4/Tuesday will be the worst day in the series, as the core of the aforementioned low-level jet will overspread the New Mexico/Texas border by afternoon peak heating, and the surface low strengthens to 986 mb over southwestern Kansas. Sustained westerly surface winds may exceed 30 mph amid 10-20 percent RH across much of eastern New Mexico into western Texas behind a dryline. Given very dry fuels and no forecast rainfall to dampen these fuels, widespread high-end Critical conditions are likely, with at least sporadic Extremely Critical conditions possible. Thereafter, dry conditions should persist across the southern High Plains through the remainder of the week. At least occasionally breezy conditions are likely, though low chances for widespread Critical conditions precludes Critical probabilities at this time. Still, Elevated highlights may be needed for portions of New Mexico into western Texas by the Days 1-2 time frame. ..Squitieri.. 03/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 PM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025 Valid 311200Z - 061200Z The first few days within the extended period will be busy fire weather wise across portions of the southern High Plains, as a series of mid-level troughs will overspread the region and support multiple rounds of surface troughing/cyclone development. As this occurs, dry downslope flow, in tandem with isallobaric westerly surface flow, and downward momentum transport within a mixed boundary layer, will all support dry/windy conditions Days 3-5 (Monday-Wednesday). These dry/windy conditions are expected to exceed Critical thresholds on Tuesday and Wednesday as an 80-100 kt mid-level jet streak overspreads the southern High Plains, where 70% Critical probabilities have been introduced. Guidance consensus suggests that Day 4/Tuesday will be the worst day in the series, as the core of the aforementioned low-level jet will overspread the New Mexico/Texas border by afternoon peak heating, and the surface low strengthens to 986 mb over southwestern Kansas. Sustained westerly surface winds may exceed 30 mph amid 10-20 percent RH across much of eastern New Mexico into western Texas behind a dryline. Given very dry fuels and no forecast rainfall to dampen these fuels, widespread high-end Critical conditions are likely, with at least sporadic Extremely Critical conditions possible. Thereafter, dry conditions should persist across the southern High Plains through the remainder of the week. At least occasionally breezy conditions are likely, though low chances for widespread Critical conditions precludes Critical probabilities at this time. Still, Elevated highlights may be needed for portions of New Mexico into western Texas by the Days 1-2 time frame. ..Squitieri.. 03/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 PM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025 Valid 311200Z - 061200Z The first few days within the extended period will be busy fire weather wise across portions of the southern High Plains, as a series of mid-level troughs will overspread the region and support multiple rounds of surface troughing/cyclone development. As this occurs, dry downslope flow, in tandem with isallobaric westerly surface flow, and downward momentum transport within a mixed boundary layer, will all support dry/windy conditions Days 3-5 (Monday-Wednesday). These dry/windy conditions are expected to exceed Critical thresholds on Tuesday and Wednesday as an 80-100 kt mid-level jet streak overspreads the southern High Plains, where 70% Critical probabilities have been introduced. Guidance consensus suggests that Day 4/Tuesday will be the worst day in the series, as the core of the aforementioned low-level jet will overspread the New Mexico/Texas border by afternoon peak heating, and the surface low strengthens to 986 mb over southwestern Kansas. Sustained westerly surface winds may exceed 30 mph amid 10-20 percent RH across much of eastern New Mexico into western Texas behind a dryline. Given very dry fuels and no forecast rainfall to dampen these fuels, widespread high-end Critical conditions are likely, with at least sporadic Extremely Critical conditions possible. Thereafter, dry conditions should persist across the southern High Plains through the remainder of the week. At least occasionally breezy conditions are likely, though low chances for widespread Critical conditions precludes Critical probabilities at this time. Still, Elevated highlights may be needed for portions of New Mexico into western Texas by the Days 1-2 time frame. ..Squitieri.. 03/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 PM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025 Valid 311200Z - 061200Z The first few days within the extended period will be busy fire weather wise across portions of the southern High Plains, as a series of mid-level troughs will overspread the region and support multiple rounds of surface troughing/cyclone development. As this occurs, dry downslope flow, in tandem with isallobaric westerly surface flow, and downward momentum transport within a mixed boundary layer, will all support dry/windy conditions Days 3-5 (Monday-Wednesday). These dry/windy conditions are expected to exceed Critical thresholds on Tuesday and Wednesday as an 80-100 kt mid-level jet streak overspreads the southern High Plains, where 70% Critical probabilities have been introduced. Guidance consensus suggests that Day 4/Tuesday will be the worst day in the series, as the core of the aforementioned low-level jet will overspread the New Mexico/Texas border by afternoon peak heating, and the surface low strengthens to 986 mb over southwestern Kansas. Sustained westerly surface winds may exceed 30 mph amid 10-20 percent RH across much of eastern New Mexico into western Texas behind a dryline. Given very dry fuels and no forecast rainfall to dampen these fuels, widespread high-end Critical conditions are likely, with at least sporadic Extremely Critical conditions possible. Thereafter, dry conditions should persist across the southern High Plains through the remainder of the week. At least occasionally breezy conditions are likely, though low chances for widespread Critical conditions precludes Critical probabilities at this time. Still, Elevated highlights may be needed for portions of New Mexico into western Texas by the Days 1-2 time frame. ..Squitieri.. 03/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 PM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025 Valid 311200Z - 061200Z The first few days within the extended period will be busy fire weather wise across portions of the southern High Plains, as a series of mid-level troughs will overspread the region and support multiple rounds of surface troughing/cyclone development. As this occurs, dry downslope flow, in tandem with isallobaric westerly surface flow, and downward momentum transport within a mixed boundary layer, will all support dry/windy conditions Days 3-5 (Monday-Wednesday). These dry/windy conditions are expected to exceed Critical thresholds on Tuesday and Wednesday as an 80-100 kt mid-level jet streak overspreads the southern High Plains, where 70% Critical probabilities have been introduced. Guidance consensus suggests that Day 4/Tuesday will be the worst day in the series, as the core of the aforementioned low-level jet will overspread the New Mexico/Texas border by afternoon peak heating, and the surface low strengthens to 986 mb over southwestern Kansas. Sustained westerly surface winds may exceed 30 mph amid 10-20 percent RH across much of eastern New Mexico into western Texas behind a dryline. Given very dry fuels and no forecast rainfall to dampen these fuels, widespread high-end Critical conditions are likely, with at least sporadic Extremely Critical conditions possible. Thereafter, dry conditions should persist across the southern High Plains through the remainder of the week. At least occasionally breezy conditions are likely, though low chances for widespread Critical conditions precludes Critical probabilities at this time. Still, Elevated highlights may be needed for portions of New Mexico into western Texas by the Days 1-2 time frame. ..Squitieri.. 03/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 PM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025 Valid 311200Z - 061200Z The first few days within the extended period will be busy fire weather wise across portions of the southern High Plains, as a series of mid-level troughs will overspread the region and support multiple rounds of surface troughing/cyclone development. As this occurs, dry downslope flow, in tandem with isallobaric westerly surface flow, and downward momentum transport within a mixed boundary layer, will all support dry/windy conditions Days 3-5 (Monday-Wednesday). These dry/windy conditions are expected to exceed Critical thresholds on Tuesday and Wednesday as an 80-100 kt mid-level jet streak overspreads the southern High Plains, where 70% Critical probabilities have been introduced. Guidance consensus suggests that Day 4/Tuesday will be the worst day in the series, as the core of the aforementioned low-level jet will overspread the New Mexico/Texas border by afternoon peak heating, and the surface low strengthens to 986 mb over southwestern Kansas. Sustained westerly surface winds may exceed 30 mph amid 10-20 percent RH across much of eastern New Mexico into western Texas behind a dryline. Given very dry fuels and no forecast rainfall to dampen these fuels, widespread high-end Critical conditions are likely, with at least sporadic Extremely Critical conditions possible. Thereafter, dry conditions should persist across the southern High Plains through the remainder of the week. At least occasionally breezy conditions are likely, though low chances for widespread Critical conditions precludes Critical probabilities at this time. Still, Elevated highlights may be needed for portions of New Mexico into western Texas by the Days 1-2 time frame. ..Squitieri.. 03/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 PM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025 Valid 311200Z - 061200Z The first few days within the extended period will be busy fire weather wise across portions of the southern High Plains, as a series of mid-level troughs will overspread the region and support multiple rounds of surface troughing/cyclone development. As this occurs, dry downslope flow, in tandem with isallobaric westerly surface flow, and downward momentum transport within a mixed boundary layer, will all support dry/windy conditions Days 3-5 (Monday-Wednesday). These dry/windy conditions are expected to exceed Critical thresholds on Tuesday and Wednesday as an 80-100 kt mid-level jet streak overspreads the southern High Plains, where 70% Critical probabilities have been introduced. Guidance consensus suggests that Day 4/Tuesday will be the worst day in the series, as the core of the aforementioned low-level jet will overspread the New Mexico/Texas border by afternoon peak heating, and the surface low strengthens to 986 mb over southwestern Kansas. Sustained westerly surface winds may exceed 30 mph amid 10-20 percent RH across much of eastern New Mexico into western Texas behind a dryline. Given very dry fuels and no forecast rainfall to dampen these fuels, widespread high-end Critical conditions are likely, with at least sporadic Extremely Critical conditions possible. Thereafter, dry conditions should persist across the southern High Plains through the remainder of the week. At least occasionally breezy conditions are likely, though low chances for widespread Critical conditions precludes Critical probabilities at this time. Still, Elevated highlights may be needed for portions of New Mexico into western Texas by the Days 1-2 time frame. ..Squitieri.. 03/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 PM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025 Valid 311200Z - 061200Z The first few days within the extended period will be busy fire weather wise across portions of the southern High Plains, as a series of mid-level troughs will overspread the region and support multiple rounds of surface troughing/cyclone development. As this occurs, dry downslope flow, in tandem with isallobaric westerly surface flow, and downward momentum transport within a mixed boundary layer, will all support dry/windy conditions Days 3-5 (Monday-Wednesday). These dry/windy conditions are expected to exceed Critical thresholds on Tuesday and Wednesday as an 80-100 kt mid-level jet streak overspreads the southern High Plains, where 70% Critical probabilities have been introduced. Guidance consensus suggests that Day 4/Tuesday will be the worst day in the series, as the core of the aforementioned low-level jet will overspread the New Mexico/Texas border by afternoon peak heating, and the surface low strengthens to 986 mb over southwestern Kansas. Sustained westerly surface winds may exceed 30 mph amid 10-20 percent RH across much of eastern New Mexico into western Texas behind a dryline. Given very dry fuels and no forecast rainfall to dampen these fuels, widespread high-end Critical conditions are likely, with at least sporadic Extremely Critical conditions possible. Thereafter, dry conditions should persist across the southern High Plains through the remainder of the week. At least occasionally breezy conditions are likely, though low chances for widespread Critical conditions precludes Critical probabilities at this time. Still, Elevated highlights may be needed for portions of New Mexico into western Texas by the Days 1-2 time frame. ..Squitieri.. 03/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 PM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025 Valid 311200Z - 061200Z The first few days within the extended period will be busy fire weather wise across portions of the southern High Plains, as a series of mid-level troughs will overspread the region and support multiple rounds of surface troughing/cyclone development. As this occurs, dry downslope flow, in tandem with isallobaric westerly surface flow, and downward momentum transport within a mixed boundary layer, will all support dry/windy conditions Days 3-5 (Monday-Wednesday). These dry/windy conditions are expected to exceed Critical thresholds on Tuesday and Wednesday as an 80-100 kt mid-level jet streak overspreads the southern High Plains, where 70% Critical probabilities have been introduced. Guidance consensus suggests that Day 4/Tuesday will be the worst day in the series, as the core of the aforementioned low-level jet will overspread the New Mexico/Texas border by afternoon peak heating, and the surface low strengthens to 986 mb over southwestern Kansas. Sustained westerly surface winds may exceed 30 mph amid 10-20 percent RH across much of eastern New Mexico into western Texas behind a dryline. Given very dry fuels and no forecast rainfall to dampen these fuels, widespread high-end Critical conditions are likely, with at least sporadic Extremely Critical conditions possible. Thereafter, dry conditions should persist across the southern High Plains through the remainder of the week. At least occasionally breezy conditions are likely, though low chances for widespread Critical conditions precludes Critical probabilities at this time. Still, Elevated highlights may be needed for portions of New Mexico into western Texas by the Days 1-2 time frame. ..Squitieri.. 03/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 PM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025 Valid 311200Z - 061200Z The first few days within the extended period will be busy fire weather wise across portions of the southern High Plains, as a series of mid-level troughs will overspread the region and support multiple rounds of surface troughing/cyclone development. As this occurs, dry downslope flow, in tandem with isallobaric westerly surface flow, and downward momentum transport within a mixed boundary layer, will all support dry/windy conditions Days 3-5 (Monday-Wednesday). These dry/windy conditions are expected to exceed Critical thresholds on Tuesday and Wednesday as an 80-100 kt mid-level jet streak overspreads the southern High Plains, where 70% Critical probabilities have been introduced. Guidance consensus suggests that Day 4/Tuesday will be the worst day in the series, as the core of the aforementioned low-level jet will overspread the New Mexico/Texas border by afternoon peak heating, and the surface low strengthens to 986 mb over southwestern Kansas. Sustained westerly surface winds may exceed 30 mph amid 10-20 percent RH across much of eastern New Mexico into western Texas behind a dryline. Given very dry fuels and no forecast rainfall to dampen these fuels, widespread high-end Critical conditions are likely, with at least sporadic Extremely Critical conditions possible. Thereafter, dry conditions should persist across the southern High Plains through the remainder of the week. At least occasionally breezy conditions are likely, though low chances for widespread Critical conditions precludes Critical probabilities at this time. Still, Elevated highlights may be needed for portions of New Mexico into western Texas by the Days 1-2 time frame. ..Squitieri.. 03/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more