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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...Synopsis... In the wake of a departing midlevel shortwave trough, a belt of strong midlevel westerly flow will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains during the afternoon. In the low-levels, a weak lee cyclone will migrate southward along the southern High Plains. ...Central/Southern New Mexico into Far West Texas... Deep boundary-layer mixing will extend into the base of the strong westerly flow aloft during the afternoon. As a result, 20-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts) will develop amid single-digit/lower teens RH and lower/middle 70s temperatures. These warm, dry, and windy conditions will promote critical fire-weather conditions, given dry/receptive fuels across the area. ..Weinman.. 03/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...Synopsis... In the wake of a departing midlevel shortwave trough, a belt of strong midlevel westerly flow will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains during the afternoon. In the low-levels, a weak lee cyclone will migrate southward along the southern High Plains. ...Central/Southern New Mexico into Far West Texas... Deep boundary-layer mixing will extend into the base of the strong westerly flow aloft during the afternoon. As a result, 20-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts) will develop amid single-digit/lower teens RH and lower/middle 70s temperatures. These warm, dry, and windy conditions will promote critical fire-weather conditions, given dry/receptive fuels across the area. ..Weinman.. 03/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...Synopsis... In the wake of a departing midlevel shortwave trough, a belt of strong midlevel westerly flow will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains during the afternoon. In the low-levels, a weak lee cyclone will migrate southward along the southern High Plains. ...Central/Southern New Mexico into Far West Texas... Deep boundary-layer mixing will extend into the base of the strong westerly flow aloft during the afternoon. As a result, 20-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts) will develop amid single-digit/lower teens RH and lower/middle 70s temperatures. These warm, dry, and windy conditions will promote critical fire-weather conditions, given dry/receptive fuels across the area. ..Weinman.. 03/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...Synopsis... In the wake of a departing midlevel shortwave trough, a belt of strong midlevel westerly flow will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains during the afternoon. In the low-levels, a weak lee cyclone will migrate southward along the southern High Plains. ...Central/Southern New Mexico into Far West Texas... Deep boundary-layer mixing will extend into the base of the strong westerly flow aloft during the afternoon. As a result, 20-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts) will develop amid single-digit/lower teens RH and lower/middle 70s temperatures. These warm, dry, and windy conditions will promote critical fire-weather conditions, given dry/receptive fuels across the area. ..Weinman.. 03/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...Synopsis... In the wake of a departing midlevel shortwave trough, a belt of strong midlevel westerly flow will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains during the afternoon. In the low-levels, a weak lee cyclone will migrate southward along the southern High Plains. ...Central/Southern New Mexico into Far West Texas... Deep boundary-layer mixing will extend into the base of the strong westerly flow aloft during the afternoon. As a result, 20-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts) will develop amid single-digit/lower teens RH and lower/middle 70s temperatures. These warm, dry, and windy conditions will promote critical fire-weather conditions, given dry/receptive fuels across the area. ..Weinman.. 03/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...Synopsis... In the wake of a departing midlevel shortwave trough, a belt of strong midlevel westerly flow will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains during the afternoon. In the low-levels, a weak lee cyclone will migrate southward along the southern High Plains. ...Central/Southern New Mexico into Far West Texas... Deep boundary-layer mixing will extend into the base of the strong westerly flow aloft during the afternoon. As a result, 20-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts) will develop amid single-digit/lower teens RH and lower/middle 70s temperatures. These warm, dry, and windy conditions will promote critical fire-weather conditions, given dry/receptive fuels across the area. ..Weinman.. 03/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...Synopsis... In the wake of a departing midlevel shortwave trough, a belt of strong midlevel westerly flow will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains during the afternoon. In the low-levels, a weak lee cyclone will migrate southward along the southern High Plains. ...Central/Southern New Mexico into Far West Texas... Deep boundary-layer mixing will extend into the base of the strong westerly flow aloft during the afternoon. As a result, 20-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts) will develop amid single-digit/lower teens RH and lower/middle 70s temperatures. These warm, dry, and windy conditions will promote critical fire-weather conditions, given dry/receptive fuels across the area. ..Weinman.. 03/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0291 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 68... FOR EASTERN OKLAHOMA...FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS...FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...WESTERN MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 0291 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 PM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025 Areas affected...Eastern Oklahoma...Far Southeast Kansas...Far Northwest Arkansas...Western Missouri Concerning...Tornado Watch 68... Valid 300431Z - 300630Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 68 continues. SUMMARY...A severe threat is likely to continue for a few more hours across eastern Oklahoma, and may spread northeastward into parts of southeastern Kansas, western Missouri and far northwestern Arkansas. Weather watch issuance remains possible downstream from WW 68. DISCUSSION...The latest mosaic radar imagery shows a developing MCS over much of central and northern Oklahoma. The large cluster of strong to severe storms is located near an axis of moderate instability, where the RAP is analyzing MLCAPE in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. This cluster is being supported by large-scale ascent associated with a shortwave trough in the southern Plains, evident on water vapor imagery. A potential for severe wind gusts, isolated large hail and a tornado, will likely continue with the stronger storms within this large cluster as it moves northeastward across eastern Oklahoma late this evening. The storms are forecast to move into far southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri after midnight, where a severe threat will be possible. The severe threat should become more isolated later tonight, as the storms interact with weaker instability. ..Broyles.. 03/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...ICT...OUN... LAT...LON 38079492 37099604 36619665 36219703 35589713 34939693 34649672 34489637 34619552 35609425 36849327 37639282 38279288 38689343 38789390 38659428 38079492 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

MD 0288 CONCERNING FREEZING RAIN FOR EAST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN
Mesoscale Discussion 0288 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0832 PM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025 Areas affected...East-central Minnesota and northern Wisconsin Concerning...Freezing rain Valid 300132Z - 300630Z SUMMARY...Freezing rain will increase in intensity and coverage over the next few hours and persist into the early morning hours. Freezing rain rates of 0.05-0.1 inch per 3 hours are possible in some locations. DISCUSSION...The latest water-vapor imagery loop indicates a negatively tilted midlevel shortwave trough tracking northeastward into southwestern MN this evening. An expansive precipitation shield preceding this feature will continue overspreading central MN into northern WI into the early morning hours. Here, surface temperatures in the lower 30s F beneath a substantial warm nose (around 6-7C around 800-850 mb per 00Z soundings) will generally support freezing rain. A strengthening low-level jet (and related frontogenesis) combined with ascent preceding the midlevel wave will favor freezing rain rates of 0.05-0.1 inch per 3 hours in some locations. The heaviest rates will generally spread from west to east into the morning hours, with the longest duration of freezing rain expected over northern WI. ..Weinman.. 03/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX... LAT...LON 45289336 45029416 44819494 44969523 45319528 45699474 45999395 46199237 46269094 46318993 46188852 46018780 45738751 45198772 44598855 44538909 44708978 45349071 45499135 45549204 45289336 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0107 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM VIRGINIA SOUTHWESTWARD TO PARTS OF ALABAMA...GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Strong/severe thunderstorms -- with threat for fairly widespread damaging winds and tornadoes -- are forecast Monday from portions of the Northeast southwestward to the central Gulf Coast region. ...Parts of eastern/southern New York southward to the central and eastern Gulf Coast area... An upper trough will continue advancing steadily eastward across the eastern half of the U.S. Monday, reaching the Atlantic Coast states overnight. Accompanying this system, a cold front just west of the Appalachians at the start of the period is likewise expected to progress eastward with time, crossing the Appalachians during the day, and then the East Coast states before moving offshore overnight. Ahead of the advancing front, thunderstorms -- likely accompanied by ongoing severe risk -- are forecast to be crossing the central Gulf Coast region. Ahead of the ongoing convection, and the advancing front, moistening/destabilization is forecast to occur east of the mountains, with at least meager surface-based CAPE expected to evolve as far north as the southeastern New York vicinity. This will support development of thunderstorms near/ahead of the front as it advances eastward. Favorably strong flow aloft will spread across the region ahead of the upper system, supporting organized/severe storms. Northern portions of the risk area -- where CAPE should remain modest -- will likely experience locally damaging wind gusts as the primary severe risk. Farther south, greater instability will support stronger convection, including linear bands near the front with local/embedded rotation, as well as isolated supercells ahead of the boundary. As such, risk for damaging wind gusts will be accompanied by potential for hail, and tornadoes appear likely as well given ample low-level shear and a relatively moist boundary layer. Storms/severe risk should persist to the coast, eventually moving offshore overnight. ..Goss.. 03/30/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0107 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM VIRGINIA SOUTHWESTWARD TO PARTS OF ALABAMA...GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Strong/severe thunderstorms -- with threat for fairly widespread damaging winds and tornadoes -- are forecast Monday from portions of the Northeast southwestward to the central Gulf Coast region. ...Parts of eastern/southern New York southward to the central and eastern Gulf Coast area... An upper trough will continue advancing steadily eastward across the eastern half of the U.S. Monday, reaching the Atlantic Coast states overnight. Accompanying this system, a cold front just west of the Appalachians at the start of the period is likewise expected to progress eastward with time, crossing the Appalachians during the day, and then the East Coast states before moving offshore overnight. Ahead of the advancing front, thunderstorms -- likely accompanied by ongoing severe risk -- are forecast to be crossing the central Gulf Coast region. Ahead of the ongoing convection, and the advancing front, moistening/destabilization is forecast to occur east of the mountains, with at least meager surface-based CAPE expected to evolve as far north as the southeastern New York vicinity. This will support development of thunderstorms near/ahead of the front as it advances eastward. Favorably strong flow aloft will spread across the region ahead of the upper system, supporting organized/severe storms. Northern portions of the risk area -- where CAPE should remain modest -- will likely experience locally damaging wind gusts as the primary severe risk. Farther south, greater instability will support stronger convection, including linear bands near the front with local/embedded rotation, as well as isolated supercells ahead of the boundary. As such, risk for damaging wind gusts will be accompanied by potential for hail, and tornadoes appear likely as well given ample low-level shear and a relatively moist boundary layer. Storms/severe risk should persist to the coast, eventually moving offshore overnight. ..Goss.. 03/30/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0107 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM VIRGINIA SOUTHWESTWARD TO PARTS OF ALABAMA...GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Strong/severe thunderstorms -- with threat for fairly widespread damaging winds and tornadoes -- are forecast Monday from portions of the Northeast southwestward to the central Gulf Coast region. ...Parts of eastern/southern New York southward to the central and eastern Gulf Coast area... An upper trough will continue advancing steadily eastward across the eastern half of the U.S. Monday, reaching the Atlantic Coast states overnight. Accompanying this system, a cold front just west of the Appalachians at the start of the period is likewise expected to progress eastward with time, crossing the Appalachians during the day, and then the East Coast states before moving offshore overnight. Ahead of the advancing front, thunderstorms -- likely accompanied by ongoing severe risk -- are forecast to be crossing the central Gulf Coast region. Ahead of the ongoing convection, and the advancing front, moistening/destabilization is forecast to occur east of the mountains, with at least meager surface-based CAPE expected to evolve as far north as the southeastern New York vicinity. This will support development of thunderstorms near/ahead of the front as it advances eastward. Favorably strong flow aloft will spread across the region ahead of the upper system, supporting organized/severe storms. Northern portions of the risk area -- where CAPE should remain modest -- will likely experience locally damaging wind gusts as the primary severe risk. Farther south, greater instability will support stronger convection, including linear bands near the front with local/embedded rotation, as well as isolated supercells ahead of the boundary. As such, risk for damaging wind gusts will be accompanied by potential for hail, and tornadoes appear likely as well given ample low-level shear and a relatively moist boundary layer. Storms/severe risk should persist to the coast, eventually moving offshore overnight. ..Goss.. 03/30/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0107 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM VIRGINIA SOUTHWESTWARD TO PARTS OF ALABAMA...GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Strong/severe thunderstorms -- with threat for fairly widespread damaging winds and tornadoes -- are forecast Monday from portions of the Northeast southwestward to the central Gulf Coast region. ...Parts of eastern/southern New York southward to the central and eastern Gulf Coast area... An upper trough will continue advancing steadily eastward across the eastern half of the U.S. Monday, reaching the Atlantic Coast states overnight. Accompanying this system, a cold front just west of the Appalachians at the start of the period is likewise expected to progress eastward with time, crossing the Appalachians during the day, and then the East Coast states before moving offshore overnight. Ahead of the advancing front, thunderstorms -- likely accompanied by ongoing severe risk -- are forecast to be crossing the central Gulf Coast region. Ahead of the ongoing convection, and the advancing front, moistening/destabilization is forecast to occur east of the mountains, with at least meager surface-based CAPE expected to evolve as far north as the southeastern New York vicinity. This will support development of thunderstorms near/ahead of the front as it advances eastward. Favorably strong flow aloft will spread across the region ahead of the upper system, supporting organized/severe storms. Northern portions of the risk area -- where CAPE should remain modest -- will likely experience locally damaging wind gusts as the primary severe risk. Farther south, greater instability will support stronger convection, including linear bands near the front with local/embedded rotation, as well as isolated supercells ahead of the boundary. As such, risk for damaging wind gusts will be accompanied by potential for hail, and tornadoes appear likely as well given ample low-level shear and a relatively moist boundary layer. Storms/severe risk should persist to the coast, eventually moving offshore overnight. ..Goss.. 03/30/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0107 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM VIRGINIA SOUTHWESTWARD TO PARTS OF ALABAMA...GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Strong/severe thunderstorms -- with threat for fairly widespread damaging winds and tornadoes -- are forecast Monday from portions of the Northeast southwestward to the central Gulf Coast region. ...Parts of eastern/southern New York southward to the central and eastern Gulf Coast area... An upper trough will continue advancing steadily eastward across the eastern half of the U.S. Monday, reaching the Atlantic Coast states overnight. Accompanying this system, a cold front just west of the Appalachians at the start of the period is likewise expected to progress eastward with time, crossing the Appalachians during the day, and then the East Coast states before moving offshore overnight. Ahead of the advancing front, thunderstorms -- likely accompanied by ongoing severe risk -- are forecast to be crossing the central Gulf Coast region. Ahead of the ongoing convection, and the advancing front, moistening/destabilization is forecast to occur east of the mountains, with at least meager surface-based CAPE expected to evolve as far north as the southeastern New York vicinity. This will support development of thunderstorms near/ahead of the front as it advances eastward. Favorably strong flow aloft will spread across the region ahead of the upper system, supporting organized/severe storms. Northern portions of the risk area -- where CAPE should remain modest -- will likely experience locally damaging wind gusts as the primary severe risk. Farther south, greater instability will support stronger convection, including linear bands near the front with local/embedded rotation, as well as isolated supercells ahead of the boundary. As such, risk for damaging wind gusts will be accompanied by potential for hail, and tornadoes appear likely as well given ample low-level shear and a relatively moist boundary layer. Storms/severe risk should persist to the coast, eventually moving offshore overnight. ..Goss.. 03/30/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0107 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM VIRGINIA SOUTHWESTWARD TO PARTS OF ALABAMA...GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Strong/severe thunderstorms -- with threat for fairly widespread damaging winds and tornadoes -- are forecast Monday from portions of the Northeast southwestward to the central Gulf Coast region. ...Parts of eastern/southern New York southward to the central and eastern Gulf Coast area... An upper trough will continue advancing steadily eastward across the eastern half of the U.S. Monday, reaching the Atlantic Coast states overnight. Accompanying this system, a cold front just west of the Appalachians at the start of the period is likewise expected to progress eastward with time, crossing the Appalachians during the day, and then the East Coast states before moving offshore overnight. Ahead of the advancing front, thunderstorms -- likely accompanied by ongoing severe risk -- are forecast to be crossing the central Gulf Coast region. Ahead of the ongoing convection, and the advancing front, moistening/destabilization is forecast to occur east of the mountains, with at least meager surface-based CAPE expected to evolve as far north as the southeastern New York vicinity. This will support development of thunderstorms near/ahead of the front as it advances eastward. Favorably strong flow aloft will spread across the region ahead of the upper system, supporting organized/severe storms. Northern portions of the risk area -- where CAPE should remain modest -- will likely experience locally damaging wind gusts as the primary severe risk. Farther south, greater instability will support stronger convection, including linear bands near the front with local/embedded rotation, as well as isolated supercells ahead of the boundary. As such, risk for damaging wind gusts will be accompanied by potential for hail, and tornadoes appear likely as well given ample low-level shear and a relatively moist boundary layer. Storms/severe risk should persist to the coast, eventually moving offshore overnight. ..Goss.. 03/30/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0107 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM VIRGINIA SOUTHWESTWARD TO PARTS OF ALABAMA...GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Strong/severe thunderstorms -- with threat for fairly widespread damaging winds and tornadoes -- are forecast Monday from portions of the Northeast southwestward to the central Gulf Coast region. ...Parts of eastern/southern New York southward to the central and eastern Gulf Coast area... An upper trough will continue advancing steadily eastward across the eastern half of the U.S. Monday, reaching the Atlantic Coast states overnight. Accompanying this system, a cold front just west of the Appalachians at the start of the period is likewise expected to progress eastward with time, crossing the Appalachians during the day, and then the East Coast states before moving offshore overnight. Ahead of the advancing front, thunderstorms -- likely accompanied by ongoing severe risk -- are forecast to be crossing the central Gulf Coast region. Ahead of the ongoing convection, and the advancing front, moistening/destabilization is forecast to occur east of the mountains, with at least meager surface-based CAPE expected to evolve as far north as the southeastern New York vicinity. This will support development of thunderstorms near/ahead of the front as it advances eastward. Favorably strong flow aloft will spread across the region ahead of the upper system, supporting organized/severe storms. Northern portions of the risk area -- where CAPE should remain modest -- will likely experience locally damaging wind gusts as the primary severe risk. Farther south, greater instability will support stronger convection, including linear bands near the front with local/embedded rotation, as well as isolated supercells ahead of the boundary. As such, risk for damaging wind gusts will be accompanied by potential for hail, and tornadoes appear likely as well given ample low-level shear and a relatively moist boundary layer. Storms/severe risk should persist to the coast, eventually moving offshore overnight. ..Goss.. 03/30/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0107 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM VIRGINIA SOUTHWESTWARD TO PARTS OF ALABAMA...GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Strong/severe thunderstorms -- with threat for fairly widespread damaging winds and tornadoes -- are forecast Monday from portions of the Northeast southwestward to the central Gulf Coast region. ...Parts of eastern/southern New York southward to the central and eastern Gulf Coast area... An upper trough will continue advancing steadily eastward across the eastern half of the U.S. Monday, reaching the Atlantic Coast states overnight. Accompanying this system, a cold front just west of the Appalachians at the start of the period is likewise expected to progress eastward with time, crossing the Appalachians during the day, and then the East Coast states before moving offshore overnight. Ahead of the advancing front, thunderstorms -- likely accompanied by ongoing severe risk -- are forecast to be crossing the central Gulf Coast region. Ahead of the ongoing convection, and the advancing front, moistening/destabilization is forecast to occur east of the mountains, with at least meager surface-based CAPE expected to evolve as far north as the southeastern New York vicinity. This will support development of thunderstorms near/ahead of the front as it advances eastward. Favorably strong flow aloft will spread across the region ahead of the upper system, supporting organized/severe storms. Northern portions of the risk area -- where CAPE should remain modest -- will likely experience locally damaging wind gusts as the primary severe risk. Farther south, greater instability will support stronger convection, including linear bands near the front with local/embedded rotation, as well as isolated supercells ahead of the boundary. As such, risk for damaging wind gusts will be accompanied by potential for hail, and tornadoes appear likely as well given ample low-level shear and a relatively moist boundary layer. Storms/severe risk should persist to the coast, eventually moving offshore overnight. ..Goss.. 03/30/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0107 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM VIRGINIA SOUTHWESTWARD TO PARTS OF ALABAMA...GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Strong/severe thunderstorms -- with threat for fairly widespread damaging winds and tornadoes -- are forecast Monday from portions of the Northeast southwestward to the central Gulf Coast region. ...Parts of eastern/southern New York southward to the central and eastern Gulf Coast area... An upper trough will continue advancing steadily eastward across the eastern half of the U.S. Monday, reaching the Atlantic Coast states overnight. Accompanying this system, a cold front just west of the Appalachians at the start of the period is likewise expected to progress eastward with time, crossing the Appalachians during the day, and then the East Coast states before moving offshore overnight. Ahead of the advancing front, thunderstorms -- likely accompanied by ongoing severe risk -- are forecast to be crossing the central Gulf Coast region. Ahead of the ongoing convection, and the advancing front, moistening/destabilization is forecast to occur east of the mountains, with at least meager surface-based CAPE expected to evolve as far north as the southeastern New York vicinity. This will support development of thunderstorms near/ahead of the front as it advances eastward. Favorably strong flow aloft will spread across the region ahead of the upper system, supporting organized/severe storms. Northern portions of the risk area -- where CAPE should remain modest -- will likely experience locally damaging wind gusts as the primary severe risk. Farther south, greater instability will support stronger convection, including linear bands near the front with local/embedded rotation, as well as isolated supercells ahead of the boundary. As such, risk for damaging wind gusts will be accompanied by potential for hail, and tornadoes appear likely as well given ample low-level shear and a relatively moist boundary layer. Storms/severe risk should persist to the coast, eventually moving offshore overnight. ..Goss.. 03/30/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0107 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM VIRGINIA SOUTHWESTWARD TO PARTS OF ALABAMA...GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Strong/severe thunderstorms -- with threat for fairly widespread damaging winds and tornadoes -- are forecast Monday from portions of the Northeast southwestward to the central Gulf Coast region. ...Parts of eastern/southern New York southward to the central and eastern Gulf Coast area... An upper trough will continue advancing steadily eastward across the eastern half of the U.S. Monday, reaching the Atlantic Coast states overnight. Accompanying this system, a cold front just west of the Appalachians at the start of the period is likewise expected to progress eastward with time, crossing the Appalachians during the day, and then the East Coast states before moving offshore overnight. Ahead of the advancing front, thunderstorms -- likely accompanied by ongoing severe risk -- are forecast to be crossing the central Gulf Coast region. Ahead of the ongoing convection, and the advancing front, moistening/destabilization is forecast to occur east of the mountains, with at least meager surface-based CAPE expected to evolve as far north as the southeastern New York vicinity. This will support development of thunderstorms near/ahead of the front as it advances eastward. Favorably strong flow aloft will spread across the region ahead of the upper system, supporting organized/severe storms. Northern portions of the risk area -- where CAPE should remain modest -- will likely experience locally damaging wind gusts as the primary severe risk. Farther south, greater instability will support stronger convection, including linear bands near the front with local/embedded rotation, as well as isolated supercells ahead of the boundary. As such, risk for damaging wind gusts will be accompanied by potential for hail, and tornadoes appear likely as well given ample low-level shear and a relatively moist boundary layer. Storms/severe risk should persist to the coast, eventually moving offshore overnight. ..Goss.. 03/30/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0107 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM VIRGINIA SOUTHWESTWARD TO PARTS OF ALABAMA...GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Strong/severe thunderstorms -- with threat for fairly widespread damaging winds and tornadoes -- are forecast Monday from portions of the Northeast southwestward to the central Gulf Coast region. ...Parts of eastern/southern New York southward to the central and eastern Gulf Coast area... An upper trough will continue advancing steadily eastward across the eastern half of the U.S. Monday, reaching the Atlantic Coast states overnight. Accompanying this system, a cold front just west of the Appalachians at the start of the period is likewise expected to progress eastward with time, crossing the Appalachians during the day, and then the East Coast states before moving offshore overnight. Ahead of the advancing front, thunderstorms -- likely accompanied by ongoing severe risk -- are forecast to be crossing the central Gulf Coast region. Ahead of the ongoing convection, and the advancing front, moistening/destabilization is forecast to occur east of the mountains, with at least meager surface-based CAPE expected to evolve as far north as the southeastern New York vicinity. This will support development of thunderstorms near/ahead of the front as it advances eastward. Favorably strong flow aloft will spread across the region ahead of the upper system, supporting organized/severe storms. Northern portions of the risk area -- where CAPE should remain modest -- will likely experience locally damaging wind gusts as the primary severe risk. Farther south, greater instability will support stronger convection, including linear bands near the front with local/embedded rotation, as well as isolated supercells ahead of the boundary. As such, risk for damaging wind gusts will be accompanied by potential for hail, and tornadoes appear likely as well given ample low-level shear and a relatively moist boundary layer. Storms/severe risk should persist to the coast, eventually moving offshore overnight. ..Goss.. 03/30/2025 Read more