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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Valid 301300Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected today and tonight across a broad portion of the Southeast and lower/mid Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes. Multiple swaths of widespread damaging winds appear likely. Large to very large hail and several tornadoes will also occur with supercells. A few of these tornadoes could be strong. ...Synopsis... A broad area of severe potential remains apparent today and tonight, with all severe hazards likely. The main mid-level shortwave trough of interest will move quickly northeastward from the Ozarks/mid MO Valley to the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes today, as larger-scale upper troughing gradually becomes more established over the MS Valley through the period. At the surface, the primary surface low over eastern IA this morning is expected to develop northeastward towards northern Lower MI by this evening, and eventually into southern Ontario/Quebec late tonight. An attendant cold front will sweep east-southeastward over much of the Midwest/OH Valley and mid/lower MS Valley through the period, while a warm front lifts northward in tandem with the surface low over portions of the Great Lakes. A dryline will mix eastward this afternoon across parts of north-central to south-central TX. ...Midwest/Ohio Valley to the Great Lakes... Mainly elevated thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across parts of northeast MO in associated with the northeastward-advancing shortwave trough. This activity should generally remain sub-severe, although isolated strong/gusty winds could occur with modest daytime heating this morning. Otherwise, a corridor of weak to moderate instability is expected to develop ahead of the cold front by early afternoon. Robust convection appears likely to initiate by 18-19Z, and it will spread quickly northeastward across much of the OH Valley and southern Great Lakes regions this afternoon and evening. A 50-70 kt southwesterly mid-level jet attendant to the shortwave trough will provide ample deep-layer shear for organized convection. Current expectations are for an initially more discrete mode, with supercells posing a threat for large to very large hail (around 1.5-2.5 inch diameter) given the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates and favorable deep-layer shear. A fairly quick transition (within a few hours of initiation) to a more linear/cluster mode is anticipated as the cold front surges eastward. Multiple swaths of numerous to potentially widespread severe/damaging winds appear likely as one or more clusters moves quickly east-northeastward over the OH Valley and southern Lower MI. With a 35-45 kt south-southwesterly low-level jet also present, strong low-level shear will likely support a threat for tornadoes, both with initial supercells and any lines/clusters that eventually form. Given the strength of the low-level flow, some of the tornadoes could be strong, especially with sustained supercells in the lower OH Valley vicinity. The threat for damaging winds and tornadoes should continue this evening into the overnight hours, until convection outpaces the low-level moisture return and eventually weakens over the upper OH Valley and central Appalachians. ...Central/East Texas into the Lower/Mid Mississippi Valley/Mid-South and Southeast... A band of mostly elevated convection developed earlier this morning over portions of north-central/east TX, likely in association with large-scale ascent preceding a westerly mid/upper-level jet nosing into central TX. While the overall environment remains quite favorable for organized severe convection, messy convective modes have tended to keep the severe hail threat isolated so far. Still, some risk for hail will continue through the morning. Strong destabilization is anticipated today ahead of this convection and a separate area of elevated thunderstorms over southern MO. Mid to upper 60s surface dewpoints will continue to stream northward across TX ahead of the dryline, and the lower/mid MS Valley and Southeast ahead of the cold front. This rich low-level moisture, combined with very steep (8-9 C/km) mid-level lapse rates and daytime heating, are expected to foster around 2000-3000 MLCAPE by early to mid afternoon. Rapid and intense thunderstorm initiation will likely occur by 18-21Z from parts of north-central/east TX to the Mid-South/mid MS Valley. Supercells are expected initially, with 40-50+ kt of deep-layer shear supporting robust updraft organization and rotation. A very favorable setup remains apparent for large to very large hail, as strong instability and deep-layer shear combine with steep mid-level lapse rates and low freezing levels. Some of this very large hail could reach up to 2-3 inches in diameter. With the primary shortwave trough ejecting to the northeast, low-level winds are forecast to remain fairly subdued through the afternoon and early evening, before gradually strengthening again tonight through early Monday morning. A risk for several tornadoes should be focused over parts of the Mid-South, a few of which could be strong given a favorable supercell mode. Similar to farther north in the OH Valley, a transition to more linear/cluster mode is expected this evening and overnight as the cold front continues advancing southeastward. A risk for line-embedded tornadoes should continue, and an increase in the severe/damaging wind threat is likely through the end of the period. Based on latest guidance trends, and to overlap with the Day 2 Convective Outlook, adjustments have been made to the southern/eastern extent of the risk areas across the lower MS Valley and Southeast. ...Florida Peninsula... A weak mid-level perturbation will move eastward over FL today. Modestly enhanced winds aloft, and a veering profile with height through mid levels, should support sufficient deep-layer shear for some thunderstorm organization. Any convection that develops in tandem with daytime heating this afternoon and early evening could pose an isolated threat for severe hail and damaging winds. Some adjustments have been made to the Marginal Risk across the FL Peninsula based on latest guidance trends. ..Gleason/Leitman.. 03/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Valid 301300Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected today and tonight across a broad portion of the Southeast and lower/mid Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes. Multiple swaths of widespread damaging winds appear likely. Large to very large hail and several tornadoes will also occur with supercells. A few of these tornadoes could be strong. ...Synopsis... A broad area of severe potential remains apparent today and tonight, with all severe hazards likely. The main mid-level shortwave trough of interest will move quickly northeastward from the Ozarks/mid MO Valley to the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes today, as larger-scale upper troughing gradually becomes more established over the MS Valley through the period. At the surface, the primary surface low over eastern IA this morning is expected to develop northeastward towards northern Lower MI by this evening, and eventually into southern Ontario/Quebec late tonight. An attendant cold front will sweep east-southeastward over much of the Midwest/OH Valley and mid/lower MS Valley through the period, while a warm front lifts northward in tandem with the surface low over portions of the Great Lakes. A dryline will mix eastward this afternoon across parts of north-central to south-central TX. ...Midwest/Ohio Valley to the Great Lakes... Mainly elevated thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across parts of northeast MO in associated with the northeastward-advancing shortwave trough. This activity should generally remain sub-severe, although isolated strong/gusty winds could occur with modest daytime heating this morning. Otherwise, a corridor of weak to moderate instability is expected to develop ahead of the cold front by early afternoon. Robust convection appears likely to initiate by 18-19Z, and it will spread quickly northeastward across much of the OH Valley and southern Great Lakes regions this afternoon and evening. A 50-70 kt southwesterly mid-level jet attendant to the shortwave trough will provide ample deep-layer shear for organized convection. Current expectations are for an initially more discrete mode, with supercells posing a threat for large to very large hail (around 1.5-2.5 inch diameter) given the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates and favorable deep-layer shear. A fairly quick transition (within a few hours of initiation) to a more linear/cluster mode is anticipated as the cold front surges eastward. Multiple swaths of numerous to potentially widespread severe/damaging winds appear likely as one or more clusters moves quickly east-northeastward over the OH Valley and southern Lower MI. With a 35-45 kt south-southwesterly low-level jet also present, strong low-level shear will likely support a threat for tornadoes, both with initial supercells and any lines/clusters that eventually form. Given the strength of the low-level flow, some of the tornadoes could be strong, especially with sustained supercells in the lower OH Valley vicinity. The threat for damaging winds and tornadoes should continue this evening into the overnight hours, until convection outpaces the low-level moisture return and eventually weakens over the upper OH Valley and central Appalachians. ...Central/East Texas into the Lower/Mid Mississippi Valley/Mid-South and Southeast... A band of mostly elevated convection developed earlier this morning over portions of north-central/east TX, likely in association with large-scale ascent preceding a westerly mid/upper-level jet nosing into central TX. While the overall environment remains quite favorable for organized severe convection, messy convective modes have tended to keep the severe hail threat isolated so far. Still, some risk for hail will continue through the morning. Strong destabilization is anticipated today ahead of this convection and a separate area of elevated thunderstorms over southern MO. Mid to upper 60s surface dewpoints will continue to stream northward across TX ahead of the dryline, and the lower/mid MS Valley and Southeast ahead of the cold front. This rich low-level moisture, combined with very steep (8-9 C/km) mid-level lapse rates and daytime heating, are expected to foster around 2000-3000 MLCAPE by early to mid afternoon. Rapid and intense thunderstorm initiation will likely occur by 18-21Z from parts of north-central/east TX to the Mid-South/mid MS Valley. Supercells are expected initially, with 40-50+ kt of deep-layer shear supporting robust updraft organization and rotation. A very favorable setup remains apparent for large to very large hail, as strong instability and deep-layer shear combine with steep mid-level lapse rates and low freezing levels. Some of this very large hail could reach up to 2-3 inches in diameter. With the primary shortwave trough ejecting to the northeast, low-level winds are forecast to remain fairly subdued through the afternoon and early evening, before gradually strengthening again tonight through early Monday morning. A risk for several tornadoes should be focused over parts of the Mid-South, a few of which could be strong given a favorable supercell mode. Similar to farther north in the OH Valley, a transition to more linear/cluster mode is expected this evening and overnight as the cold front continues advancing southeastward. A risk for line-embedded tornadoes should continue, and an increase in the severe/damaging wind threat is likely through the end of the period. Based on latest guidance trends, and to overlap with the Day 2 Convective Outlook, adjustments have been made to the southern/eastern extent of the risk areas across the lower MS Valley and Southeast. ...Florida Peninsula... A weak mid-level perturbation will move eastward over FL today. Modestly enhanced winds aloft, and a veering profile with height through mid levels, should support sufficient deep-layer shear for some thunderstorm organization. Any convection that develops in tandem with daytime heating this afternoon and early evening could pose an isolated threat for severe hail and damaging winds. Some adjustments have been made to the Marginal Risk across the FL Peninsula based on latest guidance trends. ..Gleason/Leitman.. 03/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Valid 301300Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected today and tonight across a broad portion of the Southeast and lower/mid Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes. Multiple swaths of widespread damaging winds appear likely. Large to very large hail and several tornadoes will also occur with supercells. A few of these tornadoes could be strong. ...Synopsis... A broad area of severe potential remains apparent today and tonight, with all severe hazards likely. The main mid-level shortwave trough of interest will move quickly northeastward from the Ozarks/mid MO Valley to the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes today, as larger-scale upper troughing gradually becomes more established over the MS Valley through the period. At the surface, the primary surface low over eastern IA this morning is expected to develop northeastward towards northern Lower MI by this evening, and eventually into southern Ontario/Quebec late tonight. An attendant cold front will sweep east-southeastward over much of the Midwest/OH Valley and mid/lower MS Valley through the period, while a warm front lifts northward in tandem with the surface low over portions of the Great Lakes. A dryline will mix eastward this afternoon across parts of north-central to south-central TX. ...Midwest/Ohio Valley to the Great Lakes... Mainly elevated thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across parts of northeast MO in associated with the northeastward-advancing shortwave trough. This activity should generally remain sub-severe, although isolated strong/gusty winds could occur with modest daytime heating this morning. Otherwise, a corridor of weak to moderate instability is expected to develop ahead of the cold front by early afternoon. Robust convection appears likely to initiate by 18-19Z, and it will spread quickly northeastward across much of the OH Valley and southern Great Lakes regions this afternoon and evening. A 50-70 kt southwesterly mid-level jet attendant to the shortwave trough will provide ample deep-layer shear for organized convection. Current expectations are for an initially more discrete mode, with supercells posing a threat for large to very large hail (around 1.5-2.5 inch diameter) given the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates and favorable deep-layer shear. A fairly quick transition (within a few hours of initiation) to a more linear/cluster mode is anticipated as the cold front surges eastward. Multiple swaths of numerous to potentially widespread severe/damaging winds appear likely as one or more clusters moves quickly east-northeastward over the OH Valley and southern Lower MI. With a 35-45 kt south-southwesterly low-level jet also present, strong low-level shear will likely support a threat for tornadoes, both with initial supercells and any lines/clusters that eventually form. Given the strength of the low-level flow, some of the tornadoes could be strong, especially with sustained supercells in the lower OH Valley vicinity. The threat for damaging winds and tornadoes should continue this evening into the overnight hours, until convection outpaces the low-level moisture return and eventually weakens over the upper OH Valley and central Appalachians. ...Central/East Texas into the Lower/Mid Mississippi Valley/Mid-South and Southeast... A band of mostly elevated convection developed earlier this morning over portions of north-central/east TX, likely in association with large-scale ascent preceding a westerly mid/upper-level jet nosing into central TX. While the overall environment remains quite favorable for organized severe convection, messy convective modes have tended to keep the severe hail threat isolated so far. Still, some risk for hail will continue through the morning. Strong destabilization is anticipated today ahead of this convection and a separate area of elevated thunderstorms over southern MO. Mid to upper 60s surface dewpoints will continue to stream northward across TX ahead of the dryline, and the lower/mid MS Valley and Southeast ahead of the cold front. This rich low-level moisture, combined with very steep (8-9 C/km) mid-level lapse rates and daytime heating, are expected to foster around 2000-3000 MLCAPE by early to mid afternoon. Rapid and intense thunderstorm initiation will likely occur by 18-21Z from parts of north-central/east TX to the Mid-South/mid MS Valley. Supercells are expected initially, with 40-50+ kt of deep-layer shear supporting robust updraft organization and rotation. A very favorable setup remains apparent for large to very large hail, as strong instability and deep-layer shear combine with steep mid-level lapse rates and low freezing levels. Some of this very large hail could reach up to 2-3 inches in diameter. With the primary shortwave trough ejecting to the northeast, low-level winds are forecast to remain fairly subdued through the afternoon and early evening, before gradually strengthening again tonight through early Monday morning. A risk for several tornadoes should be focused over parts of the Mid-South, a few of which could be strong given a favorable supercell mode. Similar to farther north in the OH Valley, a transition to more linear/cluster mode is expected this evening and overnight as the cold front continues advancing southeastward. A risk for line-embedded tornadoes should continue, and an increase in the severe/damaging wind threat is likely through the end of the period. Based on latest guidance trends, and to overlap with the Day 2 Convective Outlook, adjustments have been made to the southern/eastern extent of the risk areas across the lower MS Valley and Southeast. ...Florida Peninsula... A weak mid-level perturbation will move eastward over FL today. Modestly enhanced winds aloft, and a veering profile with height through mid levels, should support sufficient deep-layer shear for some thunderstorm organization. Any convection that develops in tandem with daytime heating this afternoon and early evening could pose an isolated threat for severe hail and damaging winds. Some adjustments have been made to the Marginal Risk across the FL Peninsula based on latest guidance trends. ..Gleason/Leitman.. 03/30/2025 Read more

WW 0069 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 69 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE HRO TO 45 SSW TBN TO 15 SSW TBN TO 10 SW JEF. ..LEITMAN..03/30/25 ATTN...WFO...TSA...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 69 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MOC067-125-161-169-215-229-301140- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DOUGLAS MARIES PHELPS PULASKI TEXAS WRIGHT THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 0293 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0293 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0323 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Areas affected...portions of north/central Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 300823Z - 301030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Isolated large hail is possible into early morning across portions of north/central Texas. DISCUSSION...Isolated elevated convection is developing within the core of the upper level jet streak across parts of north/central Texas. This area is also within a weak baroclinic zone and area of low-level confluence. Latest mesoanalysis and forecast soundings show moderate instability (up to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE), aided by steep midlevel lapse rates near 8 C/km. Additionally, supercell wind profiles and 50+ kt effective shear will likely support organized cells. With the main area of large-scale ascent gradually lifting northeast of the region, convection is expected to remain rather isolated. Nevertheless, the environment will support storms capable of producing large hail. Trends will be monitored for possible watch issuance. ..Leitman/Gleason.. 03/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT... LAT...LON 31279897 32039870 32539787 32519689 32309618 32029569 31409555 31029578 30799632 30749760 30739860 31219903 31279897 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

WW 69 SEVERE TSTM AR KS MO OK 300550Z - 301200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 69 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northwest Arkansas Far Southeast Kansas Southwest and South-Central Missouri Eastern Oklahoma * Effective this Sunday morning from 1250 AM until 700 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A cluster of thunderstorms should continue to move quickly northeastward early this morning while posing a threat for mainly severe/damaging winds, with peak gusts potentially up to 55-70 mph. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles north and south of a line from 25 miles west southwest of Muskogee OK to 45 miles northeast of Springfield MO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 67...WW 68... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 22045. ...Gleason Read more

MD 0294 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 69... FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST AR INTO SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL MO
Mesoscale Discussion 0294 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Areas affected...portions of northwest AR into southwest and central MO Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 69... Valid 300843Z - 301015Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 69 continues. SUMMARY...Isolated severe gusts may persist another couple of hours across Severe Thunderstorm Watch 69. DISCUSSION...A band of convection will continue to track east/northeast near the MO/AR border into southwest MO of the next couple of hours. This convection produced significant wind gusts about 1-2 hours ago. Since that time, radar trends have weakened considerably. Nevertheless, this activity will continue to move across a weakly unstable airmass amid strong vertical shear. Isolated strong to severe wind gusts will remain possible with stronger cells over the next couple of hours. Trends will be monitored for possible downstream watch issuance into eastern MO, but current expectation is that convection will continue to gradually weaken with eastward extent. ..Leitman.. 03/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LSX...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA... LAT...LON 38149409 38659286 38829245 38499158 37739148 37029170 36239290 35839363 35829401 36809407 38149409 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

WW 0069 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 69 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 NNE HRO TO 30 SSE SGF TO 40 NNE SGF TO 25 SSE SZL. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0294 ..LEITMAN..03/30/25 ATTN...WFO...TSA...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 69 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MOC015-029-043-059-067-105-125-131-141-161-169-213-215-225-229- 301040- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON CAMDEN CHRISTIAN DALLAS DOUGLAS LACLEDE MARIES MILLER MORGAN PHELPS PULASKI TANEY TEXAS WEBSTER WRIGHT THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK POSSIBLE ON D4/WED... ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models appear to be in good agreement with overall evolution of the synoptic-scale pattern into the Day 7 (Saturday April 5) time period, when divergence in solutions increases. Earlier in the period however, model consistency lends fairly high confidence that a widespread/potentially substantial outbreak of severe weather will evolve Wednesday/Day 4, from Lower Michigan and the Ohio Valley, southwestward across the Middle and Lower Mississippi Valleys, and into eastern portions of Texas and Oklahoma. Convection will likely be ongoing or developing early in the day, over western portions of the risk area -- from Wisconsin southwestward to Oklahoma/North Texas. As an upper low shifts northeastward across the northern Plains toward the upper Mississippi Valley through the day, and the cold front crosses Iowa/Missouri/eastern Oklahoma, steep lapse rates atop a moist/diurnally heating warm sector will support widespread convective development. With ascent along the front somewhat modest as stronger large-scale ascent focuses northward into the western Upper Great Lakes and into Ontario, storm mode may tend toward isolated storms, as opposed to more linear development. This, combined with flow that is forecast to weakly veer but dramatically strengthen with height, suggests a primarily supercell storm mode. In additional to very large hail (particularly with southward extent), widespread damaging winds and several tornadoes are expected, some possibly significant. Risk is expected to continue well into the evening and likely overnight, shifting slowly eastward across the Midwest and mid/lower Mississippi Valley through the end of the period. Day 5/Thursday, trailing portions of the cold front should become aligned east-northeast to west-southwest across the Ohio and mid Mississippi Valleys and into the southern Plains, as the upper system shifts quickly across eastern Canada. While weak short-wave ridging will evolve atop the surface frontal zone in the wake of the departing system, daytime heating of a very moist boundary layer along and south of the front combined with strong flow aloft will support reinvigorated convection through the afternoon and evening hours, along with attendant severe-weather risk. Day 6/Friday, the surface front should remain quasi-stationary, but short-wave ridging should increase as a cut-off low evolves across the West. As such, much of the Day 6 convection may occur to the cool side of the surface front, in the zone of warm advection/isentropic ascent. While some severe risk will likely evolve, mainly in the form of hail, uncertainty overall (given the ridging aloft) precludes inclusion of a Day 6 risk area. By the weekend, deviation in model solutions increases, due to uncertain evolution of the low/trough over the West. As such, no risk areas will be included. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK POSSIBLE ON D4/WED... ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models appear to be in good agreement with overall evolution of the synoptic-scale pattern into the Day 7 (Saturday April 5) time period, when divergence in solutions increases. Earlier in the period however, model consistency lends fairly high confidence that a widespread/potentially substantial outbreak of severe weather will evolve Wednesday/Day 4, from Lower Michigan and the Ohio Valley, southwestward across the Middle and Lower Mississippi Valleys, and into eastern portions of Texas and Oklahoma. Convection will likely be ongoing or developing early in the day, over western portions of the risk area -- from Wisconsin southwestward to Oklahoma/North Texas. As an upper low shifts northeastward across the northern Plains toward the upper Mississippi Valley through the day, and the cold front crosses Iowa/Missouri/eastern Oklahoma, steep lapse rates atop a moist/diurnally heating warm sector will support widespread convective development. With ascent along the front somewhat modest as stronger large-scale ascent focuses northward into the western Upper Great Lakes and into Ontario, storm mode may tend toward isolated storms, as opposed to more linear development. This, combined with flow that is forecast to weakly veer but dramatically strengthen with height, suggests a primarily supercell storm mode. In additional to very large hail (particularly with southward extent), widespread damaging winds and several tornadoes are expected, some possibly significant. Risk is expected to continue well into the evening and likely overnight, shifting slowly eastward across the Midwest and mid/lower Mississippi Valley through the end of the period. Day 5/Thursday, trailing portions of the cold front should become aligned east-northeast to west-southwest across the Ohio and mid Mississippi Valleys and into the southern Plains, as the upper system shifts quickly across eastern Canada. While weak short-wave ridging will evolve atop the surface frontal zone in the wake of the departing system, daytime heating of a very moist boundary layer along and south of the front combined with strong flow aloft will support reinvigorated convection through the afternoon and evening hours, along with attendant severe-weather risk. Day 6/Friday, the surface front should remain quasi-stationary, but short-wave ridging should increase as a cut-off low evolves across the West. As such, much of the Day 6 convection may occur to the cool side of the surface front, in the zone of warm advection/isentropic ascent. While some severe risk will likely evolve, mainly in the form of hail, uncertainty overall (given the ridging aloft) precludes inclusion of a Day 6 risk area. By the weekend, deviation in model solutions increases, due to uncertain evolution of the low/trough over the West. As such, no risk areas will be included. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK POSSIBLE ON D4/WED... ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models appear to be in good agreement with overall evolution of the synoptic-scale pattern into the Day 7 (Saturday April 5) time period, when divergence in solutions increases. Earlier in the period however, model consistency lends fairly high confidence that a widespread/potentially substantial outbreak of severe weather will evolve Wednesday/Day 4, from Lower Michigan and the Ohio Valley, southwestward across the Middle and Lower Mississippi Valleys, and into eastern portions of Texas and Oklahoma. Convection will likely be ongoing or developing early in the day, over western portions of the risk area -- from Wisconsin southwestward to Oklahoma/North Texas. As an upper low shifts northeastward across the northern Plains toward the upper Mississippi Valley through the day, and the cold front crosses Iowa/Missouri/eastern Oklahoma, steep lapse rates atop a moist/diurnally heating warm sector will support widespread convective development. With ascent along the front somewhat modest as stronger large-scale ascent focuses northward into the western Upper Great Lakes and into Ontario, storm mode may tend toward isolated storms, as opposed to more linear development. This, combined with flow that is forecast to weakly veer but dramatically strengthen with height, suggests a primarily supercell storm mode. In additional to very large hail (particularly with southward extent), widespread damaging winds and several tornadoes are expected, some possibly significant. Risk is expected to continue well into the evening and likely overnight, shifting slowly eastward across the Midwest and mid/lower Mississippi Valley through the end of the period. Day 5/Thursday, trailing portions of the cold front should become aligned east-northeast to west-southwest across the Ohio and mid Mississippi Valleys and into the southern Plains, as the upper system shifts quickly across eastern Canada. While weak short-wave ridging will evolve atop the surface frontal zone in the wake of the departing system, daytime heating of a very moist boundary layer along and south of the front combined with strong flow aloft will support reinvigorated convection through the afternoon and evening hours, along with attendant severe-weather risk. Day 6/Friday, the surface front should remain quasi-stationary, but short-wave ridging should increase as a cut-off low evolves across the West. As such, much of the Day 6 convection may occur to the cool side of the surface front, in the zone of warm advection/isentropic ascent. While some severe risk will likely evolve, mainly in the form of hail, uncertainty overall (given the ridging aloft) precludes inclusion of a Day 6 risk area. By the weekend, deviation in model solutions increases, due to uncertain evolution of the low/trough over the West. As such, no risk areas will be included. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK POSSIBLE ON D4/WED... ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models appear to be in good agreement with overall evolution of the synoptic-scale pattern into the Day 7 (Saturday April 5) time period, when divergence in solutions increases. Earlier in the period however, model consistency lends fairly high confidence that a widespread/potentially substantial outbreak of severe weather will evolve Wednesday/Day 4, from Lower Michigan and the Ohio Valley, southwestward across the Middle and Lower Mississippi Valleys, and into eastern portions of Texas and Oklahoma. Convection will likely be ongoing or developing early in the day, over western portions of the risk area -- from Wisconsin southwestward to Oklahoma/North Texas. As an upper low shifts northeastward across the northern Plains toward the upper Mississippi Valley through the day, and the cold front crosses Iowa/Missouri/eastern Oklahoma, steep lapse rates atop a moist/diurnally heating warm sector will support widespread convective development. With ascent along the front somewhat modest as stronger large-scale ascent focuses northward into the western Upper Great Lakes and into Ontario, storm mode may tend toward isolated storms, as opposed to more linear development. This, combined with flow that is forecast to weakly veer but dramatically strengthen with height, suggests a primarily supercell storm mode. In additional to very large hail (particularly with southward extent), widespread damaging winds and several tornadoes are expected, some possibly significant. Risk is expected to continue well into the evening and likely overnight, shifting slowly eastward across the Midwest and mid/lower Mississippi Valley through the end of the period. Day 5/Thursday, trailing portions of the cold front should become aligned east-northeast to west-southwest across the Ohio and mid Mississippi Valleys and into the southern Plains, as the upper system shifts quickly across eastern Canada. While weak short-wave ridging will evolve atop the surface frontal zone in the wake of the departing system, daytime heating of a very moist boundary layer along and south of the front combined with strong flow aloft will support reinvigorated convection through the afternoon and evening hours, along with attendant severe-weather risk. Day 6/Friday, the surface front should remain quasi-stationary, but short-wave ridging should increase as a cut-off low evolves across the West. As such, much of the Day 6 convection may occur to the cool side of the surface front, in the zone of warm advection/isentropic ascent. While some severe risk will likely evolve, mainly in the form of hail, uncertainty overall (given the ridging aloft) precludes inclusion of a Day 6 risk area. By the weekend, deviation in model solutions increases, due to uncertain evolution of the low/trough over the West. As such, no risk areas will be included. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK POSSIBLE ON D4/WED... ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models appear to be in good agreement with overall evolution of the synoptic-scale pattern into the Day 7 (Saturday April 5) time period, when divergence in solutions increases. Earlier in the period however, model consistency lends fairly high confidence that a widespread/potentially substantial outbreak of severe weather will evolve Wednesday/Day 4, from Lower Michigan and the Ohio Valley, southwestward across the Middle and Lower Mississippi Valleys, and into eastern portions of Texas and Oklahoma. Convection will likely be ongoing or developing early in the day, over western portions of the risk area -- from Wisconsin southwestward to Oklahoma/North Texas. As an upper low shifts northeastward across the northern Plains toward the upper Mississippi Valley through the day, and the cold front crosses Iowa/Missouri/eastern Oklahoma, steep lapse rates atop a moist/diurnally heating warm sector will support widespread convective development. With ascent along the front somewhat modest as stronger large-scale ascent focuses northward into the western Upper Great Lakes and into Ontario, storm mode may tend toward isolated storms, as opposed to more linear development. This, combined with flow that is forecast to weakly veer but dramatically strengthen with height, suggests a primarily supercell storm mode. In additional to very large hail (particularly with southward extent), widespread damaging winds and several tornadoes are expected, some possibly significant. Risk is expected to continue well into the evening and likely overnight, shifting slowly eastward across the Midwest and mid/lower Mississippi Valley through the end of the period. Day 5/Thursday, trailing portions of the cold front should become aligned east-northeast to west-southwest across the Ohio and mid Mississippi Valleys and into the southern Plains, as the upper system shifts quickly across eastern Canada. While weak short-wave ridging will evolve atop the surface frontal zone in the wake of the departing system, daytime heating of a very moist boundary layer along and south of the front combined with strong flow aloft will support reinvigorated convection through the afternoon and evening hours, along with attendant severe-weather risk. Day 6/Friday, the surface front should remain quasi-stationary, but short-wave ridging should increase as a cut-off low evolves across the West. As such, much of the Day 6 convection may occur to the cool side of the surface front, in the zone of warm advection/isentropic ascent. While some severe risk will likely evolve, mainly in the form of hail, uncertainty overall (given the ridging aloft) precludes inclusion of a Day 6 risk area. By the weekend, deviation in model solutions increases, due to uncertain evolution of the low/trough over the West. As such, no risk areas will be included. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK POSSIBLE ON D4/WED... ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models appear to be in good agreement with overall evolution of the synoptic-scale pattern into the Day 7 (Saturday April 5) time period, when divergence in solutions increases. Earlier in the period however, model consistency lends fairly high confidence that a widespread/potentially substantial outbreak of severe weather will evolve Wednesday/Day 4, from Lower Michigan and the Ohio Valley, southwestward across the Middle and Lower Mississippi Valleys, and into eastern portions of Texas and Oklahoma. Convection will likely be ongoing or developing early in the day, over western portions of the risk area -- from Wisconsin southwestward to Oklahoma/North Texas. As an upper low shifts northeastward across the northern Plains toward the upper Mississippi Valley through the day, and the cold front crosses Iowa/Missouri/eastern Oklahoma, steep lapse rates atop a moist/diurnally heating warm sector will support widespread convective development. With ascent along the front somewhat modest as stronger large-scale ascent focuses northward into the western Upper Great Lakes and into Ontario, storm mode may tend toward isolated storms, as opposed to more linear development. This, combined with flow that is forecast to weakly veer but dramatically strengthen with height, suggests a primarily supercell storm mode. In additional to very large hail (particularly with southward extent), widespread damaging winds and several tornadoes are expected, some possibly significant. Risk is expected to continue well into the evening and likely overnight, shifting slowly eastward across the Midwest and mid/lower Mississippi Valley through the end of the period. Day 5/Thursday, trailing portions of the cold front should become aligned east-northeast to west-southwest across the Ohio and mid Mississippi Valleys and into the southern Plains, as the upper system shifts quickly across eastern Canada. While weak short-wave ridging will evolve atop the surface frontal zone in the wake of the departing system, daytime heating of a very moist boundary layer along and south of the front combined with strong flow aloft will support reinvigorated convection through the afternoon and evening hours, along with attendant severe-weather risk. Day 6/Friday, the surface front should remain quasi-stationary, but short-wave ridging should increase as a cut-off low evolves across the West. As such, much of the Day 6 convection may occur to the cool side of the surface front, in the zone of warm advection/isentropic ascent. While some severe risk will likely evolve, mainly in the form of hail, uncertainty overall (given the ridging aloft) precludes inclusion of a Day 6 risk area. By the weekend, deviation in model solutions increases, due to uncertain evolution of the low/trough over the West. As such, no risk areas will be included. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK POSSIBLE ON D4/WED... ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models appear to be in good agreement with overall evolution of the synoptic-scale pattern into the Day 7 (Saturday April 5) time period, when divergence in solutions increases. Earlier in the period however, model consistency lends fairly high confidence that a widespread/potentially substantial outbreak of severe weather will evolve Wednesday/Day 4, from Lower Michigan and the Ohio Valley, southwestward across the Middle and Lower Mississippi Valleys, and into eastern portions of Texas and Oklahoma. Convection will likely be ongoing or developing early in the day, over western portions of the risk area -- from Wisconsin southwestward to Oklahoma/North Texas. As an upper low shifts northeastward across the northern Plains toward the upper Mississippi Valley through the day, and the cold front crosses Iowa/Missouri/eastern Oklahoma, steep lapse rates atop a moist/diurnally heating warm sector will support widespread convective development. With ascent along the front somewhat modest as stronger large-scale ascent focuses northward into the western Upper Great Lakes and into Ontario, storm mode may tend toward isolated storms, as opposed to more linear development. This, combined with flow that is forecast to weakly veer but dramatically strengthen with height, suggests a primarily supercell storm mode. In additional to very large hail (particularly with southward extent), widespread damaging winds and several tornadoes are expected, some possibly significant. Risk is expected to continue well into the evening and likely overnight, shifting slowly eastward across the Midwest and mid/lower Mississippi Valley through the end of the period. Day 5/Thursday, trailing portions of the cold front should become aligned east-northeast to west-southwest across the Ohio and mid Mississippi Valleys and into the southern Plains, as the upper system shifts quickly across eastern Canada. While weak short-wave ridging will evolve atop the surface frontal zone in the wake of the departing system, daytime heating of a very moist boundary layer along and south of the front combined with strong flow aloft will support reinvigorated convection through the afternoon and evening hours, along with attendant severe-weather risk. Day 6/Friday, the surface front should remain quasi-stationary, but short-wave ridging should increase as a cut-off low evolves across the West. As such, much of the Day 6 convection may occur to the cool side of the surface front, in the zone of warm advection/isentropic ascent. While some severe risk will likely evolve, mainly in the form of hail, uncertainty overall (given the ridging aloft) precludes inclusion of a Day 6 risk area. By the weekend, deviation in model solutions increases, due to uncertain evolution of the low/trough over the West. As such, no risk areas will be included. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK POSSIBLE ON D4/WED... ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models appear to be in good agreement with overall evolution of the synoptic-scale pattern into the Day 7 (Saturday April 5) time period, when divergence in solutions increases. Earlier in the period however, model consistency lends fairly high confidence that a widespread/potentially substantial outbreak of severe weather will evolve Wednesday/Day 4, from Lower Michigan and the Ohio Valley, southwestward across the Middle and Lower Mississippi Valleys, and into eastern portions of Texas and Oklahoma. Convection will likely be ongoing or developing early in the day, over western portions of the risk area -- from Wisconsin southwestward to Oklahoma/North Texas. As an upper low shifts northeastward across the northern Plains toward the upper Mississippi Valley through the day, and the cold front crosses Iowa/Missouri/eastern Oklahoma, steep lapse rates atop a moist/diurnally heating warm sector will support widespread convective development. With ascent along the front somewhat modest as stronger large-scale ascent focuses northward into the western Upper Great Lakes and into Ontario, storm mode may tend toward isolated storms, as opposed to more linear development. This, combined with flow that is forecast to weakly veer but dramatically strengthen with height, suggests a primarily supercell storm mode. In additional to very large hail (particularly with southward extent), widespread damaging winds and several tornadoes are expected, some possibly significant. Risk is expected to continue well into the evening and likely overnight, shifting slowly eastward across the Midwest and mid/lower Mississippi Valley through the end of the period. Day 5/Thursday, trailing portions of the cold front should become aligned east-northeast to west-southwest across the Ohio and mid Mississippi Valleys and into the southern Plains, as the upper system shifts quickly across eastern Canada. While weak short-wave ridging will evolve atop the surface frontal zone in the wake of the departing system, daytime heating of a very moist boundary layer along and south of the front combined with strong flow aloft will support reinvigorated convection through the afternoon and evening hours, along with attendant severe-weather risk. Day 6/Friday, the surface front should remain quasi-stationary, but short-wave ridging should increase as a cut-off low evolves across the West. As such, much of the Day 6 convection may occur to the cool side of the surface front, in the zone of warm advection/isentropic ascent. While some severe risk will likely evolve, mainly in the form of hail, uncertainty overall (given the ridging aloft) precludes inclusion of a Day 6 risk area. By the weekend, deviation in model solutions increases, due to uncertain evolution of the low/trough over the West. As such, no risk areas will be included. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK POSSIBLE ON D4/WED... ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models appear to be in good agreement with overall evolution of the synoptic-scale pattern into the Day 7 (Saturday April 5) time period, when divergence in solutions increases. Earlier in the period however, model consistency lends fairly high confidence that a widespread/potentially substantial outbreak of severe weather will evolve Wednesday/Day 4, from Lower Michigan and the Ohio Valley, southwestward across the Middle and Lower Mississippi Valleys, and into eastern portions of Texas and Oklahoma. Convection will likely be ongoing or developing early in the day, over western portions of the risk area -- from Wisconsin southwestward to Oklahoma/North Texas. As an upper low shifts northeastward across the northern Plains toward the upper Mississippi Valley through the day, and the cold front crosses Iowa/Missouri/eastern Oklahoma, steep lapse rates atop a moist/diurnally heating warm sector will support widespread convective development. With ascent along the front somewhat modest as stronger large-scale ascent focuses northward into the western Upper Great Lakes and into Ontario, storm mode may tend toward isolated storms, as opposed to more linear development. This, combined with flow that is forecast to weakly veer but dramatically strengthen with height, suggests a primarily supercell storm mode. In additional to very large hail (particularly with southward extent), widespread damaging winds and several tornadoes are expected, some possibly significant. Risk is expected to continue well into the evening and likely overnight, shifting slowly eastward across the Midwest and mid/lower Mississippi Valley through the end of the period. Day 5/Thursday, trailing portions of the cold front should become aligned east-northeast to west-southwest across the Ohio and mid Mississippi Valleys and into the southern Plains, as the upper system shifts quickly across eastern Canada. While weak short-wave ridging will evolve atop the surface frontal zone in the wake of the departing system, daytime heating of a very moist boundary layer along and south of the front combined with strong flow aloft will support reinvigorated convection through the afternoon and evening hours, along with attendant severe-weather risk. Day 6/Friday, the surface front should remain quasi-stationary, but short-wave ridging should increase as a cut-off low evolves across the West. As such, much of the Day 6 convection may occur to the cool side of the surface front, in the zone of warm advection/isentropic ascent. While some severe risk will likely evolve, mainly in the form of hail, uncertainty overall (given the ridging aloft) precludes inclusion of a Day 6 risk area. By the weekend, deviation in model solutions increases, due to uncertain evolution of the low/trough over the West. As such, no risk areas will be included. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK POSSIBLE ON D4/WED... ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models appear to be in good agreement with overall evolution of the synoptic-scale pattern into the Day 7 (Saturday April 5) time period, when divergence in solutions increases. Earlier in the period however, model consistency lends fairly high confidence that a widespread/potentially substantial outbreak of severe weather will evolve Wednesday/Day 4, from Lower Michigan and the Ohio Valley, southwestward across the Middle and Lower Mississippi Valleys, and into eastern portions of Texas and Oklahoma. Convection will likely be ongoing or developing early in the day, over western portions of the risk area -- from Wisconsin southwestward to Oklahoma/North Texas. As an upper low shifts northeastward across the northern Plains toward the upper Mississippi Valley through the day, and the cold front crosses Iowa/Missouri/eastern Oklahoma, steep lapse rates atop a moist/diurnally heating warm sector will support widespread convective development. With ascent along the front somewhat modest as stronger large-scale ascent focuses northward into the western Upper Great Lakes and into Ontario, storm mode may tend toward isolated storms, as opposed to more linear development. This, combined with flow that is forecast to weakly veer but dramatically strengthen with height, suggests a primarily supercell storm mode. In additional to very large hail (particularly with southward extent), widespread damaging winds and several tornadoes are expected, some possibly significant. Risk is expected to continue well into the evening and likely overnight, shifting slowly eastward across the Midwest and mid/lower Mississippi Valley through the end of the period. Day 5/Thursday, trailing portions of the cold front should become aligned east-northeast to west-southwest across the Ohio and mid Mississippi Valleys and into the southern Plains, as the upper system shifts quickly across eastern Canada. While weak short-wave ridging will evolve atop the surface frontal zone in the wake of the departing system, daytime heating of a very moist boundary layer along and south of the front combined with strong flow aloft will support reinvigorated convection through the afternoon and evening hours, along with attendant severe-weather risk. Day 6/Friday, the surface front should remain quasi-stationary, but short-wave ridging should increase as a cut-off low evolves across the West. As such, much of the Day 6 convection may occur to the cool side of the surface front, in the zone of warm advection/isentropic ascent. While some severe risk will likely evolve, mainly in the form of hail, uncertainty overall (given the ridging aloft) precludes inclusion of a Day 6 risk area. By the weekend, deviation in model solutions increases, due to uncertain evolution of the low/trough over the West. As such, no risk areas will be included. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK POSSIBLE ON D4/WED... ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models appear to be in good agreement with overall evolution of the synoptic-scale pattern into the Day 7 (Saturday April 5) time period, when divergence in solutions increases. Earlier in the period however, model consistency lends fairly high confidence that a widespread/potentially substantial outbreak of severe weather will evolve Wednesday/Day 4, from Lower Michigan and the Ohio Valley, southwestward across the Middle and Lower Mississippi Valleys, and into eastern portions of Texas and Oklahoma. Convection will likely be ongoing or developing early in the day, over western portions of the risk area -- from Wisconsin southwestward to Oklahoma/North Texas. As an upper low shifts northeastward across the northern Plains toward the upper Mississippi Valley through the day, and the cold front crosses Iowa/Missouri/eastern Oklahoma, steep lapse rates atop a moist/diurnally heating warm sector will support widespread convective development. With ascent along the front somewhat modest as stronger large-scale ascent focuses northward into the western Upper Great Lakes and into Ontario, storm mode may tend toward isolated storms, as opposed to more linear development. This, combined with flow that is forecast to weakly veer but dramatically strengthen with height, suggests a primarily supercell storm mode. In additional to very large hail (particularly with southward extent), widespread damaging winds and several tornadoes are expected, some possibly significant. Risk is expected to continue well into the evening and likely overnight, shifting slowly eastward across the Midwest and mid/lower Mississippi Valley through the end of the period. Day 5/Thursday, trailing portions of the cold front should become aligned east-northeast to west-southwest across the Ohio and mid Mississippi Valleys and into the southern Plains, as the upper system shifts quickly across eastern Canada. While weak short-wave ridging will evolve atop the surface frontal zone in the wake of the departing system, daytime heating of a very moist boundary layer along and south of the front combined with strong flow aloft will support reinvigorated convection through the afternoon and evening hours, along with attendant severe-weather risk. Day 6/Friday, the surface front should remain quasi-stationary, but short-wave ridging should increase as a cut-off low evolves across the West. As such, much of the Day 6 convection may occur to the cool side of the surface front, in the zone of warm advection/isentropic ascent. While some severe risk will likely evolve, mainly in the form of hail, uncertainty overall (given the ridging aloft) precludes inclusion of a Day 6 risk area. By the weekend, deviation in model solutions increases, due to uncertain evolution of the low/trough over the West. As such, no risk areas will be included. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK POSSIBLE ON D4/WED... ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models appear to be in good agreement with overall evolution of the synoptic-scale pattern into the Day 7 (Saturday April 5) time period, when divergence in solutions increases. Earlier in the period however, model consistency lends fairly high confidence that a widespread/potentially substantial outbreak of severe weather will evolve Wednesday/Day 4, from Lower Michigan and the Ohio Valley, southwestward across the Middle and Lower Mississippi Valleys, and into eastern portions of Texas and Oklahoma. Convection will likely be ongoing or developing early in the day, over western portions of the risk area -- from Wisconsin southwestward to Oklahoma/North Texas. As an upper low shifts northeastward across the northern Plains toward the upper Mississippi Valley through the day, and the cold front crosses Iowa/Missouri/eastern Oklahoma, steep lapse rates atop a moist/diurnally heating warm sector will support widespread convective development. With ascent along the front somewhat modest as stronger large-scale ascent focuses northward into the western Upper Great Lakes and into Ontario, storm mode may tend toward isolated storms, as opposed to more linear development. This, combined with flow that is forecast to weakly veer but dramatically strengthen with height, suggests a primarily supercell storm mode. In additional to very large hail (particularly with southward extent), widespread damaging winds and several tornadoes are expected, some possibly significant. Risk is expected to continue well into the evening and likely overnight, shifting slowly eastward across the Midwest and mid/lower Mississippi Valley through the end of the period. Day 5/Thursday, trailing portions of the cold front should become aligned east-northeast to west-southwest across the Ohio and mid Mississippi Valleys and into the southern Plains, as the upper system shifts quickly across eastern Canada. While weak short-wave ridging will evolve atop the surface frontal zone in the wake of the departing system, daytime heating of a very moist boundary layer along and south of the front combined with strong flow aloft will support reinvigorated convection through the afternoon and evening hours, along with attendant severe-weather risk. Day 6/Friday, the surface front should remain quasi-stationary, but short-wave ridging should increase as a cut-off low evolves across the West. As such, much of the Day 6 convection may occur to the cool side of the surface front, in the zone of warm advection/isentropic ascent. While some severe risk will likely evolve, mainly in the form of hail, uncertainty overall (given the ridging aloft) precludes inclusion of a Day 6 risk area. By the weekend, deviation in model solutions increases, due to uncertain evolution of the low/trough over the West. As such, no risk areas will be included. Read more