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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...SOUTHEAST...AND CAROLINAS/VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Strong/severe thunderstorms -- with a threat for scattered to widespread damaging winds and several tornadoes -- are forecast Monday from portions of the Northeast southwestward to the central Gulf Coast region. ...Synopsis... The primary synoptic features on Monday will be influenced by extensive antecedent and ongoing convection, but in general, one significant mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move from the lower Great Lakes toward the Canadian Maritimes, while a lower-amplitude midlevel shortwave trough will move from the Mid-South/Southeast toward the Carolinas/Mid Atlantic. A deep surface low will move across Quebec through the day, as a trailing cold front advances southeastward from the Northeast/New England into parts of the Southeast. ...Southeast into the Carolinas/Virginia... While uncertainty remains regarding antecedent convective evolution on D1/Sunday, latest guidance generally suggests that an organized storm cluster will ongoing Monday morning across parts of LA/MS/AL, potentially aided by the trailing shortwave trough moving out of the southern Plains. Favorable low-level moisture, moderate downstream buoyancy, and 30-50 kt in the 850-700 mb layer will help to maintain potential for an organized cluster to move eastward into parts of GA/SC through the day, accompanied by a threat for scattered to widespread damaging winds. Low-level shear/SRH will be sufficient to support some tornado threat as well, both with QLCS circulations and also with any embedded supercells. In addition to a tornado threat, any sustained supercells would also pose a threat of isolated hail. The anticipated storm cluster will tend to outpace the primary cold front, with some potential for at least isolated development in the wake of early-day convection. Uncertainty remains high regarding the severe potential with any second round of convection in this region. Farther north into parts of NC/VA, relatively strong heating of a moist environment will result in moderate buoyancy by early afternoon, though midlevel lapse rates will likely remain weak. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop and spread eastward, with potential for a few organized cells/clusters capable of damaging wind. There will be some potential for an increase in low-level flow/shear and moisture later in the afternoon, which could increase the tornado threat, depending on the timing of storm initiation and maturation. ...Parts of the Mid Atlantic/Northeast... While instability will generally weaken with northward extent, scattered thunderstorm development is expected along/ahead of the front as far north as parts of NY and southern New England. Low/midlevel flow will remain somewhat enhanced along the southern periphery of the cyclone across Quebec, and some potential for damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado may accompany the strongest storms through the day and into the early evening, before the front moves offshore. ..Dean.. 03/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...SOUTHEAST...AND CAROLINAS/VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Strong/severe thunderstorms -- with a threat for scattered to widespread damaging winds and several tornadoes -- are forecast Monday from portions of the Northeast southwestward to the central Gulf Coast region. ...Synopsis... The primary synoptic features on Monday will be influenced by extensive antecedent and ongoing convection, but in general, one significant mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move from the lower Great Lakes toward the Canadian Maritimes, while a lower-amplitude midlevel shortwave trough will move from the Mid-South/Southeast toward the Carolinas/Mid Atlantic. A deep surface low will move across Quebec through the day, as a trailing cold front advances southeastward from the Northeast/New England into parts of the Southeast. ...Southeast into the Carolinas/Virginia... While uncertainty remains regarding antecedent convective evolution on D1/Sunday, latest guidance generally suggests that an organized storm cluster will ongoing Monday morning across parts of LA/MS/AL, potentially aided by the trailing shortwave trough moving out of the southern Plains. Favorable low-level moisture, moderate downstream buoyancy, and 30-50 kt in the 850-700 mb layer will help to maintain potential for an organized cluster to move eastward into parts of GA/SC through the day, accompanied by a threat for scattered to widespread damaging winds. Low-level shear/SRH will be sufficient to support some tornado threat as well, both with QLCS circulations and also with any embedded supercells. In addition to a tornado threat, any sustained supercells would also pose a threat of isolated hail. The anticipated storm cluster will tend to outpace the primary cold front, with some potential for at least isolated development in the wake of early-day convection. Uncertainty remains high regarding the severe potential with any second round of convection in this region. Farther north into parts of NC/VA, relatively strong heating of a moist environment will result in moderate buoyancy by early afternoon, though midlevel lapse rates will likely remain weak. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop and spread eastward, with potential for a few organized cells/clusters capable of damaging wind. There will be some potential for an increase in low-level flow/shear and moisture later in the afternoon, which could increase the tornado threat, depending on the timing of storm initiation and maturation. ...Parts of the Mid Atlantic/Northeast... While instability will generally weaken with northward extent, scattered thunderstorm development is expected along/ahead of the front as far north as parts of NY and southern New England. Low/midlevel flow will remain somewhat enhanced along the southern periphery of the cyclone across Quebec, and some potential for damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado may accompany the strongest storms through the day and into the early evening, before the front moves offshore. ..Dean.. 03/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...SOUTHEAST...AND CAROLINAS/VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Strong/severe thunderstorms -- with a threat for scattered to widespread damaging winds and several tornadoes -- are forecast Monday from portions of the Northeast southwestward to the central Gulf Coast region. ...Synopsis... The primary synoptic features on Monday will be influenced by extensive antecedent and ongoing convection, but in general, one significant mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move from the lower Great Lakes toward the Canadian Maritimes, while a lower-amplitude midlevel shortwave trough will move from the Mid-South/Southeast toward the Carolinas/Mid Atlantic. A deep surface low will move across Quebec through the day, as a trailing cold front advances southeastward from the Northeast/New England into parts of the Southeast. ...Southeast into the Carolinas/Virginia... While uncertainty remains regarding antecedent convective evolution on D1/Sunday, latest guidance generally suggests that an organized storm cluster will ongoing Monday morning across parts of LA/MS/AL, potentially aided by the trailing shortwave trough moving out of the southern Plains. Favorable low-level moisture, moderate downstream buoyancy, and 30-50 kt in the 850-700 mb layer will help to maintain potential for an organized cluster to move eastward into parts of GA/SC through the day, accompanied by a threat for scattered to widespread damaging winds. Low-level shear/SRH will be sufficient to support some tornado threat as well, both with QLCS circulations and also with any embedded supercells. In addition to a tornado threat, any sustained supercells would also pose a threat of isolated hail. The anticipated storm cluster will tend to outpace the primary cold front, with some potential for at least isolated development in the wake of early-day convection. Uncertainty remains high regarding the severe potential with any second round of convection in this region. Farther north into parts of NC/VA, relatively strong heating of a moist environment will result in moderate buoyancy by early afternoon, though midlevel lapse rates will likely remain weak. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop and spread eastward, with potential for a few organized cells/clusters capable of damaging wind. There will be some potential for an increase in low-level flow/shear and moisture later in the afternoon, which could increase the tornado threat, depending on the timing of storm initiation and maturation. ...Parts of the Mid Atlantic/Northeast... While instability will generally weaken with northward extent, scattered thunderstorm development is expected along/ahead of the front as far north as parts of NY and southern New England. Low/midlevel flow will remain somewhat enhanced along the southern periphery of the cyclone across Quebec, and some potential for damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado may accompany the strongest storms through the day and into the early evening, before the front moves offshore. ..Dean.. 03/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...SOUTHEAST...AND CAROLINAS/VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Strong/severe thunderstorms -- with a threat for scattered to widespread damaging winds and several tornadoes -- are forecast Monday from portions of the Northeast southwestward to the central Gulf Coast region. ...Synopsis... The primary synoptic features on Monday will be influenced by extensive antecedent and ongoing convection, but in general, one significant mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move from the lower Great Lakes toward the Canadian Maritimes, while a lower-amplitude midlevel shortwave trough will move from the Mid-South/Southeast toward the Carolinas/Mid Atlantic. A deep surface low will move across Quebec through the day, as a trailing cold front advances southeastward from the Northeast/New England into parts of the Southeast. ...Southeast into the Carolinas/Virginia... While uncertainty remains regarding antecedent convective evolution on D1/Sunday, latest guidance generally suggests that an organized storm cluster will ongoing Monday morning across parts of LA/MS/AL, potentially aided by the trailing shortwave trough moving out of the southern Plains. Favorable low-level moisture, moderate downstream buoyancy, and 30-50 kt in the 850-700 mb layer will help to maintain potential for an organized cluster to move eastward into parts of GA/SC through the day, accompanied by a threat for scattered to widespread damaging winds. Low-level shear/SRH will be sufficient to support some tornado threat as well, both with QLCS circulations and also with any embedded supercells. In addition to a tornado threat, any sustained supercells would also pose a threat of isolated hail. The anticipated storm cluster will tend to outpace the primary cold front, with some potential for at least isolated development in the wake of early-day convection. Uncertainty remains high regarding the severe potential with any second round of convection in this region. Farther north into parts of NC/VA, relatively strong heating of a moist environment will result in moderate buoyancy by early afternoon, though midlevel lapse rates will likely remain weak. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop and spread eastward, with potential for a few organized cells/clusters capable of damaging wind. There will be some potential for an increase in low-level flow/shear and moisture later in the afternoon, which could increase the tornado threat, depending on the timing of storm initiation and maturation. ...Parts of the Mid Atlantic/Northeast... While instability will generally weaken with northward extent, scattered thunderstorm development is expected along/ahead of the front as far north as parts of NY and southern New England. Low/midlevel flow will remain somewhat enhanced along the southern periphery of the cyclone across Quebec, and some potential for damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado may accompany the strongest storms through the day and into the early evening, before the front moves offshore. ..Dean.. 03/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...SOUTHEAST...AND CAROLINAS/VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Strong/severe thunderstorms -- with a threat for scattered to widespread damaging winds and several tornadoes -- are forecast Monday from portions of the Northeast southwestward to the central Gulf Coast region. ...Synopsis... The primary synoptic features on Monday will be influenced by extensive antecedent and ongoing convection, but in general, one significant mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move from the lower Great Lakes toward the Canadian Maritimes, while a lower-amplitude midlevel shortwave trough will move from the Mid-South/Southeast toward the Carolinas/Mid Atlantic. A deep surface low will move across Quebec through the day, as a trailing cold front advances southeastward from the Northeast/New England into parts of the Southeast. ...Southeast into the Carolinas/Virginia... While uncertainty remains regarding antecedent convective evolution on D1/Sunday, latest guidance generally suggests that an organized storm cluster will ongoing Monday morning across parts of LA/MS/AL, potentially aided by the trailing shortwave trough moving out of the southern Plains. Favorable low-level moisture, moderate downstream buoyancy, and 30-50 kt in the 850-700 mb layer will help to maintain potential for an organized cluster to move eastward into parts of GA/SC through the day, accompanied by a threat for scattered to widespread damaging winds. Low-level shear/SRH will be sufficient to support some tornado threat as well, both with QLCS circulations and also with any embedded supercells. In addition to a tornado threat, any sustained supercells would also pose a threat of isolated hail. The anticipated storm cluster will tend to outpace the primary cold front, with some potential for at least isolated development in the wake of early-day convection. Uncertainty remains high regarding the severe potential with any second round of convection in this region. Farther north into parts of NC/VA, relatively strong heating of a moist environment will result in moderate buoyancy by early afternoon, though midlevel lapse rates will likely remain weak. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop and spread eastward, with potential for a few organized cells/clusters capable of damaging wind. There will be some potential for an increase in low-level flow/shear and moisture later in the afternoon, which could increase the tornado threat, depending on the timing of storm initiation and maturation. ...Parts of the Mid Atlantic/Northeast... While instability will generally weaken with northward extent, scattered thunderstorm development is expected along/ahead of the front as far north as parts of NY and southern New England. Low/midlevel flow will remain somewhat enhanced along the southern periphery of the cyclone across Quebec, and some potential for damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado may accompany the strongest storms through the day and into the early evening, before the front moves offshore. ..Dean.. 03/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...SOUTHEAST...AND CAROLINAS/VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Strong/severe thunderstorms -- with a threat for scattered to widespread damaging winds and several tornadoes -- are forecast Monday from portions of the Northeast southwestward to the central Gulf Coast region. ...Synopsis... The primary synoptic features on Monday will be influenced by extensive antecedent and ongoing convection, but in general, one significant mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move from the lower Great Lakes toward the Canadian Maritimes, while a lower-amplitude midlevel shortwave trough will move from the Mid-South/Southeast toward the Carolinas/Mid Atlantic. A deep surface low will move across Quebec through the day, as a trailing cold front advances southeastward from the Northeast/New England into parts of the Southeast. ...Southeast into the Carolinas/Virginia... While uncertainty remains regarding antecedent convective evolution on D1/Sunday, latest guidance generally suggests that an organized storm cluster will ongoing Monday morning across parts of LA/MS/AL, potentially aided by the trailing shortwave trough moving out of the southern Plains. Favorable low-level moisture, moderate downstream buoyancy, and 30-50 kt in the 850-700 mb layer will help to maintain potential for an organized cluster to move eastward into parts of GA/SC through the day, accompanied by a threat for scattered to widespread damaging winds. Low-level shear/SRH will be sufficient to support some tornado threat as well, both with QLCS circulations and also with any embedded supercells. In addition to a tornado threat, any sustained supercells would also pose a threat of isolated hail. The anticipated storm cluster will tend to outpace the primary cold front, with some potential for at least isolated development in the wake of early-day convection. Uncertainty remains high regarding the severe potential with any second round of convection in this region. Farther north into parts of NC/VA, relatively strong heating of a moist environment will result in moderate buoyancy by early afternoon, though midlevel lapse rates will likely remain weak. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop and spread eastward, with potential for a few organized cells/clusters capable of damaging wind. There will be some potential for an increase in low-level flow/shear and moisture later in the afternoon, which could increase the tornado threat, depending on the timing of storm initiation and maturation. ...Parts of the Mid Atlantic/Northeast... While instability will generally weaken with northward extent, scattered thunderstorm development is expected along/ahead of the front as far north as parts of NY and southern New England. Low/midlevel flow will remain somewhat enhanced along the southern periphery of the cyclone across Quebec, and some potential for damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado may accompany the strongest storms through the day and into the early evening, before the front moves offshore. ..Dean.. 03/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...SOUTHEAST...AND CAROLINAS/VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Strong/severe thunderstorms -- with a threat for scattered to widespread damaging winds and several tornadoes -- are forecast Monday from portions of the Northeast southwestward to the central Gulf Coast region. ...Synopsis... The primary synoptic features on Monday will be influenced by extensive antecedent and ongoing convection, but in general, one significant mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move from the lower Great Lakes toward the Canadian Maritimes, while a lower-amplitude midlevel shortwave trough will move from the Mid-South/Southeast toward the Carolinas/Mid Atlantic. A deep surface low will move across Quebec through the day, as a trailing cold front advances southeastward from the Northeast/New England into parts of the Southeast. ...Southeast into the Carolinas/Virginia... While uncertainty remains regarding antecedent convective evolution on D1/Sunday, latest guidance generally suggests that an organized storm cluster will ongoing Monday morning across parts of LA/MS/AL, potentially aided by the trailing shortwave trough moving out of the southern Plains. Favorable low-level moisture, moderate downstream buoyancy, and 30-50 kt in the 850-700 mb layer will help to maintain potential for an organized cluster to move eastward into parts of GA/SC through the day, accompanied by a threat for scattered to widespread damaging winds. Low-level shear/SRH will be sufficient to support some tornado threat as well, both with QLCS circulations and also with any embedded supercells. In addition to a tornado threat, any sustained supercells would also pose a threat of isolated hail. The anticipated storm cluster will tend to outpace the primary cold front, with some potential for at least isolated development in the wake of early-day convection. Uncertainty remains high regarding the severe potential with any second round of convection in this region. Farther north into parts of NC/VA, relatively strong heating of a moist environment will result in moderate buoyancy by early afternoon, though midlevel lapse rates will likely remain weak. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop and spread eastward, with potential for a few organized cells/clusters capable of damaging wind. There will be some potential for an increase in low-level flow/shear and moisture later in the afternoon, which could increase the tornado threat, depending on the timing of storm initiation and maturation. ...Parts of the Mid Atlantic/Northeast... While instability will generally weaken with northward extent, scattered thunderstorm development is expected along/ahead of the front as far north as parts of NY and southern New England. Low/midlevel flow will remain somewhat enhanced along the southern periphery of the cyclone across Quebec, and some potential for damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado may accompany the strongest storms through the day and into the early evening, before the front moves offshore. ..Dean.. 03/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...SOUTHEAST...AND CAROLINAS/VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Strong/severe thunderstorms -- with a threat for scattered to widespread damaging winds and several tornadoes -- are forecast Monday from portions of the Northeast southwestward to the central Gulf Coast region. ...Synopsis... The primary synoptic features on Monday will be influenced by extensive antecedent and ongoing convection, but in general, one significant mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move from the lower Great Lakes toward the Canadian Maritimes, while a lower-amplitude midlevel shortwave trough will move from the Mid-South/Southeast toward the Carolinas/Mid Atlantic. A deep surface low will move across Quebec through the day, as a trailing cold front advances southeastward from the Northeast/New England into parts of the Southeast. ...Southeast into the Carolinas/Virginia... While uncertainty remains regarding antecedent convective evolution on D1/Sunday, latest guidance generally suggests that an organized storm cluster will ongoing Monday morning across parts of LA/MS/AL, potentially aided by the trailing shortwave trough moving out of the southern Plains. Favorable low-level moisture, moderate downstream buoyancy, and 30-50 kt in the 850-700 mb layer will help to maintain potential for an organized cluster to move eastward into parts of GA/SC through the day, accompanied by a threat for scattered to widespread damaging winds. Low-level shear/SRH will be sufficient to support some tornado threat as well, both with QLCS circulations and also with any embedded supercells. In addition to a tornado threat, any sustained supercells would also pose a threat of isolated hail. The anticipated storm cluster will tend to outpace the primary cold front, with some potential for at least isolated development in the wake of early-day convection. Uncertainty remains high regarding the severe potential with any second round of convection in this region. Farther north into parts of NC/VA, relatively strong heating of a moist environment will result in moderate buoyancy by early afternoon, though midlevel lapse rates will likely remain weak. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop and spread eastward, with potential for a few organized cells/clusters capable of damaging wind. There will be some potential for an increase in low-level flow/shear and moisture later in the afternoon, which could increase the tornado threat, depending on the timing of storm initiation and maturation. ...Parts of the Mid Atlantic/Northeast... While instability will generally weaken with northward extent, scattered thunderstorm development is expected along/ahead of the front as far north as parts of NY and southern New England. Low/midlevel flow will remain somewhat enhanced along the southern periphery of the cyclone across Quebec, and some potential for damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado may accompany the strongest storms through the day and into the early evening, before the front moves offshore. ..Dean.. 03/30/2025 Read more

WW 0070 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0070 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

No watches are valid as of Sun Mar 30 16:46:01 UTC 2025.

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Valid 301630Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected through tonight across a broad portion of the Southeast and lower/mid Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes. Multiple swaths of widespread damaging winds appear likely. Large to very large hail and several tornadoes will also occur with supercells. A few of these tornadoes could be strong. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a lead mid-level shortwave trough moving quickly northeastward across MO, while an upstream disturbance over the TX Panhandle/western OK rounds the base of a larger-scale trough over the central U.S. Surface analysis places a cyclone near the IA/IL/WI border with a trailing cold front south-southwestward through the lower MO Valley and into eastern OK and north TX. This front will push east through the OH Valley and into the lower MS Valley by early Monday morning and focus thunderstorm development. ...Midwest/Ohio Valley to the Great Lakes... Visible-satellite imagery shows cloud breaks to the immediate east of the lead mid-level disturbance as a moist/warm conveyor (40-kt southwesterly LLJ) maintains a fetch of seasonably rich moisture into the region. Additional thinning cloud cover and heating through the early to mid afternoon will lead to thunderstorms developing and intensifying. A belt of 50-80 kt 500-mb flow will overspread the destabilizing airmass and yield ample deep-layer shear for organized convection. The stronger early storms will favor supercell and banded linear modes, with the supercells posing a threat for large to very large hail (around 1.5-2.5 inch diameter) given the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates and favorable deep-layer shear. Meridional upper-level flow from I-70 northward will favor a quicker transition to linear structures compared to farther south/southwest, where hodographs will promote a longer window of opportunity for cellular (discrete and clusters) storm modes. The tornado risk will be greatest with quasi-discrete supercells (potentially a few strong tornadoes) near and south of the OH River, but some tornado threat will probably develop with a squall line as it matures through the afternoon/evening. As storm coverage increases, multiple swaths of numerous to potentially widespread severe/damaging winds appear likely as one or more clusters moves quickly east-northeastward over the OH Valley and southern Lower MI. The threat for damaging winds and tornadoes should continue this evening into the overnight hours, until convection outpaces the low-level moisture return and eventually weakens over the upper OH Valley and central Appalachians. ...Central/East Texas into the Lower/Mid Mississippi Valley/Mid-South and Southeast... Strong destabilization is anticipated across the Ark-La-Tex east and northeastward into the Mid South. Rich low-level moisture (mid to upper 60s to around 70 deg F dewpoints) will stream northward across TX ahead of the dryline, and the lower/mid MS Valley and Southeast ahead of the cold front. Model guidance continues to indicate rapid and intense thunderstorm development during the afternoon from parts of north/east TX northeastward into AR. Supercells are expected initially, with 40-50+ kt of deep-layer shear supporting robust updraft organization and rotation. A favorable setup exists for large to very large hail with the stronger supercells. It appears the greatest risk for several tornadoes will focus over parts of the Mid-South from eastern AR into western TN on the southern periphery of an intensification of 850-mb flow towards evening. Forecast soundings show moderate to locally strong buoyancy (2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE) on the northern rim of 66-68 deg F dewpoints, and co-located with strong southwesterly flow veering to westerly by early evening. It is during the 22-04 UTC period in which forecast hodographs enlarge in the low levels and become more favorable for discrete supercells. The strong tornado risk may maximize within this corridor from parts of eastern AR eastward into western and perhaps Middle TN during the evening. Additional severe storms are probable farther south as activity from the Ark-La-Tex moves east into the lower MS Valley and central Gulf Coast states during the late afternoon into tonight. In addition to large to very large hail, damaging gusts and a tornado risk will likely accompany the stronger storms with a gradual lessening in overall coverage and intensity during the late night. ...Florida Peninsula... A weak mid-level perturbation will move eastward over FL this afternoon. Modestly enhanced winds aloft, and a veering profile with height through mid levels, should support sufficient deep-layer shear for strong to severe multicells. The stronger diurnally driven storms may be capable of severe hail and damaging winds. ..Smith/Moore.. 03/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Valid 301630Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected through tonight across a broad portion of the Southeast and lower/mid Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes. Multiple swaths of widespread damaging winds appear likely. Large to very large hail and several tornadoes will also occur with supercells. A few of these tornadoes could be strong. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a lead mid-level shortwave trough moving quickly northeastward across MO, while an upstream disturbance over the TX Panhandle/western OK rounds the base of a larger-scale trough over the central U.S. Surface analysis places a cyclone near the IA/IL/WI border with a trailing cold front south-southwestward through the lower MO Valley and into eastern OK and north TX. This front will push east through the OH Valley and into the lower MS Valley by early Monday morning and focus thunderstorm development. ...Midwest/Ohio Valley to the Great Lakes... Visible-satellite imagery shows cloud breaks to the immediate east of the lead mid-level disturbance as a moist/warm conveyor (40-kt southwesterly LLJ) maintains a fetch of seasonably rich moisture into the region. Additional thinning cloud cover and heating through the early to mid afternoon will lead to thunderstorms developing and intensifying. A belt of 50-80 kt 500-mb flow will overspread the destabilizing airmass and yield ample deep-layer shear for organized convection. The stronger early storms will favor supercell and banded linear modes, with the supercells posing a threat for large to very large hail (around 1.5-2.5 inch diameter) given the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates and favorable deep-layer shear. Meridional upper-level flow from I-70 northward will favor a quicker transition to linear structures compared to farther south/southwest, where hodographs will promote a longer window of opportunity for cellular (discrete and clusters) storm modes. The tornado risk will be greatest with quasi-discrete supercells (potentially a few strong tornadoes) near and south of the OH River, but some tornado threat will probably develop with a squall line as it matures through the afternoon/evening. As storm coverage increases, multiple swaths of numerous to potentially widespread severe/damaging winds appear likely as one or more clusters moves quickly east-northeastward over the OH Valley and southern Lower MI. The threat for damaging winds and tornadoes should continue this evening into the overnight hours, until convection outpaces the low-level moisture return and eventually weakens over the upper OH Valley and central Appalachians. ...Central/East Texas into the Lower/Mid Mississippi Valley/Mid-South and Southeast... Strong destabilization is anticipated across the Ark-La-Tex east and northeastward into the Mid South. Rich low-level moisture (mid to upper 60s to around 70 deg F dewpoints) will stream northward across TX ahead of the dryline, and the lower/mid MS Valley and Southeast ahead of the cold front. Model guidance continues to indicate rapid and intense thunderstorm development during the afternoon from parts of north/east TX northeastward into AR. Supercells are expected initially, with 40-50+ kt of deep-layer shear supporting robust updraft organization and rotation. A favorable setup exists for large to very large hail with the stronger supercells. It appears the greatest risk for several tornadoes will focus over parts of the Mid-South from eastern AR into western TN on the southern periphery of an intensification of 850-mb flow towards evening. Forecast soundings show moderate to locally strong buoyancy (2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE) on the northern rim of 66-68 deg F dewpoints, and co-located with strong southwesterly flow veering to westerly by early evening. It is during the 22-04 UTC period in which forecast hodographs enlarge in the low levels and become more favorable for discrete supercells. The strong tornado risk may maximize within this corridor from parts of eastern AR eastward into western and perhaps Middle TN during the evening. Additional severe storms are probable farther south as activity from the Ark-La-Tex moves east into the lower MS Valley and central Gulf Coast states during the late afternoon into tonight. In addition to large to very large hail, damaging gusts and a tornado risk will likely accompany the stronger storms with a gradual lessening in overall coverage and intensity during the late night. ...Florida Peninsula... A weak mid-level perturbation will move eastward over FL this afternoon. Modestly enhanced winds aloft, and a veering profile with height through mid levels, should support sufficient deep-layer shear for strong to severe multicells. The stronger diurnally driven storms may be capable of severe hail and damaging winds. ..Smith/Moore.. 03/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Valid 301630Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected through tonight across a broad portion of the Southeast and lower/mid Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes. Multiple swaths of widespread damaging winds appear likely. Large to very large hail and several tornadoes will also occur with supercells. A few of these tornadoes could be strong. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a lead mid-level shortwave trough moving quickly northeastward across MO, while an upstream disturbance over the TX Panhandle/western OK rounds the base of a larger-scale trough over the central U.S. Surface analysis places a cyclone near the IA/IL/WI border with a trailing cold front south-southwestward through the lower MO Valley and into eastern OK and north TX. This front will push east through the OH Valley and into the lower MS Valley by early Monday morning and focus thunderstorm development. ...Midwest/Ohio Valley to the Great Lakes... Visible-satellite imagery shows cloud breaks to the immediate east of the lead mid-level disturbance as a moist/warm conveyor (40-kt southwesterly LLJ) maintains a fetch of seasonably rich moisture into the region. Additional thinning cloud cover and heating through the early to mid afternoon will lead to thunderstorms developing and intensifying. A belt of 50-80 kt 500-mb flow will overspread the destabilizing airmass and yield ample deep-layer shear for organized convection. The stronger early storms will favor supercell and banded linear modes, with the supercells posing a threat for large to very large hail (around 1.5-2.5 inch diameter) given the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates and favorable deep-layer shear. Meridional upper-level flow from I-70 northward will favor a quicker transition to linear structures compared to farther south/southwest, where hodographs will promote a longer window of opportunity for cellular (discrete and clusters) storm modes. The tornado risk will be greatest with quasi-discrete supercells (potentially a few strong tornadoes) near and south of the OH River, but some tornado threat will probably develop with a squall line as it matures through the afternoon/evening. As storm coverage increases, multiple swaths of numerous to potentially widespread severe/damaging winds appear likely as one or more clusters moves quickly east-northeastward over the OH Valley and southern Lower MI. The threat for damaging winds and tornadoes should continue this evening into the overnight hours, until convection outpaces the low-level moisture return and eventually weakens over the upper OH Valley and central Appalachians. ...Central/East Texas into the Lower/Mid Mississippi Valley/Mid-South and Southeast... Strong destabilization is anticipated across the Ark-La-Tex east and northeastward into the Mid South. Rich low-level moisture (mid to upper 60s to around 70 deg F dewpoints) will stream northward across TX ahead of the dryline, and the lower/mid MS Valley and Southeast ahead of the cold front. Model guidance continues to indicate rapid and intense thunderstorm development during the afternoon from parts of north/east TX northeastward into AR. Supercells are expected initially, with 40-50+ kt of deep-layer shear supporting robust updraft organization and rotation. A favorable setup exists for large to very large hail with the stronger supercells. It appears the greatest risk for several tornadoes will focus over parts of the Mid-South from eastern AR into western TN on the southern periphery of an intensification of 850-mb flow towards evening. Forecast soundings show moderate to locally strong buoyancy (2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE) on the northern rim of 66-68 deg F dewpoints, and co-located with strong southwesterly flow veering to westerly by early evening. It is during the 22-04 UTC period in which forecast hodographs enlarge in the low levels and become more favorable for discrete supercells. The strong tornado risk may maximize within this corridor from parts of eastern AR eastward into western and perhaps Middle TN during the evening. Additional severe storms are probable farther south as activity from the Ark-La-Tex moves east into the lower MS Valley and central Gulf Coast states during the late afternoon into tonight. In addition to large to very large hail, damaging gusts and a tornado risk will likely accompany the stronger storms with a gradual lessening in overall coverage and intensity during the late night. ...Florida Peninsula... A weak mid-level perturbation will move eastward over FL this afternoon. Modestly enhanced winds aloft, and a veering profile with height through mid levels, should support sufficient deep-layer shear for strong to severe multicells. The stronger diurnally driven storms may be capable of severe hail and damaging winds. ..Smith/Moore.. 03/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Valid 301630Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected through tonight across a broad portion of the Southeast and lower/mid Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes. Multiple swaths of widespread damaging winds appear likely. Large to very large hail and several tornadoes will also occur with supercells. A few of these tornadoes could be strong. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a lead mid-level shortwave trough moving quickly northeastward across MO, while an upstream disturbance over the TX Panhandle/western OK rounds the base of a larger-scale trough over the central U.S. Surface analysis places a cyclone near the IA/IL/WI border with a trailing cold front south-southwestward through the lower MO Valley and into eastern OK and north TX. This front will push east through the OH Valley and into the lower MS Valley by early Monday morning and focus thunderstorm development. ...Midwest/Ohio Valley to the Great Lakes... Visible-satellite imagery shows cloud breaks to the immediate east of the lead mid-level disturbance as a moist/warm conveyor (40-kt southwesterly LLJ) maintains a fetch of seasonably rich moisture into the region. Additional thinning cloud cover and heating through the early to mid afternoon will lead to thunderstorms developing and intensifying. A belt of 50-80 kt 500-mb flow will overspread the destabilizing airmass and yield ample deep-layer shear for organized convection. The stronger early storms will favor supercell and banded linear modes, with the supercells posing a threat for large to very large hail (around 1.5-2.5 inch diameter) given the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates and favorable deep-layer shear. Meridional upper-level flow from I-70 northward will favor a quicker transition to linear structures compared to farther south/southwest, where hodographs will promote a longer window of opportunity for cellular (discrete and clusters) storm modes. The tornado risk will be greatest with quasi-discrete supercells (potentially a few strong tornadoes) near and south of the OH River, but some tornado threat will probably develop with a squall line as it matures through the afternoon/evening. As storm coverage increases, multiple swaths of numerous to potentially widespread severe/damaging winds appear likely as one or more clusters moves quickly east-northeastward over the OH Valley and southern Lower MI. The threat for damaging winds and tornadoes should continue this evening into the overnight hours, until convection outpaces the low-level moisture return and eventually weakens over the upper OH Valley and central Appalachians. ...Central/East Texas into the Lower/Mid Mississippi Valley/Mid-South and Southeast... Strong destabilization is anticipated across the Ark-La-Tex east and northeastward into the Mid South. Rich low-level moisture (mid to upper 60s to around 70 deg F dewpoints) will stream northward across TX ahead of the dryline, and the lower/mid MS Valley and Southeast ahead of the cold front. Model guidance continues to indicate rapid and intense thunderstorm development during the afternoon from parts of north/east TX northeastward into AR. Supercells are expected initially, with 40-50+ kt of deep-layer shear supporting robust updraft organization and rotation. A favorable setup exists for large to very large hail with the stronger supercells. It appears the greatest risk for several tornadoes will focus over parts of the Mid-South from eastern AR into western TN on the southern periphery of an intensification of 850-mb flow towards evening. Forecast soundings show moderate to locally strong buoyancy (2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE) on the northern rim of 66-68 deg F dewpoints, and co-located with strong southwesterly flow veering to westerly by early evening. It is during the 22-04 UTC period in which forecast hodographs enlarge in the low levels and become more favorable for discrete supercells. The strong tornado risk may maximize within this corridor from parts of eastern AR eastward into western and perhaps Middle TN during the evening. Additional severe storms are probable farther south as activity from the Ark-La-Tex moves east into the lower MS Valley and central Gulf Coast states during the late afternoon into tonight. In addition to large to very large hail, damaging gusts and a tornado risk will likely accompany the stronger storms with a gradual lessening in overall coverage and intensity during the late night. ...Florida Peninsula... A weak mid-level perturbation will move eastward over FL this afternoon. Modestly enhanced winds aloft, and a veering profile with height through mid levels, should support sufficient deep-layer shear for strong to severe multicells. The stronger diurnally driven storms may be capable of severe hail and damaging winds. ..Smith/Moore.. 03/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Valid 301630Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected through tonight across a broad portion of the Southeast and lower/mid Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes. Multiple swaths of widespread damaging winds appear likely. Large to very large hail and several tornadoes will also occur with supercells. A few of these tornadoes could be strong. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a lead mid-level shortwave trough moving quickly northeastward across MO, while an upstream disturbance over the TX Panhandle/western OK rounds the base of a larger-scale trough over the central U.S. Surface analysis places a cyclone near the IA/IL/WI border with a trailing cold front south-southwestward through the lower MO Valley and into eastern OK and north TX. This front will push east through the OH Valley and into the lower MS Valley by early Monday morning and focus thunderstorm development. ...Midwest/Ohio Valley to the Great Lakes... Visible-satellite imagery shows cloud breaks to the immediate east of the lead mid-level disturbance as a moist/warm conveyor (40-kt southwesterly LLJ) maintains a fetch of seasonably rich moisture into the region. Additional thinning cloud cover and heating through the early to mid afternoon will lead to thunderstorms developing and intensifying. A belt of 50-80 kt 500-mb flow will overspread the destabilizing airmass and yield ample deep-layer shear for organized convection. The stronger early storms will favor supercell and banded linear modes, with the supercells posing a threat for large to very large hail (around 1.5-2.5 inch diameter) given the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates and favorable deep-layer shear. Meridional upper-level flow from I-70 northward will favor a quicker transition to linear structures compared to farther south/southwest, where hodographs will promote a longer window of opportunity for cellular (discrete and clusters) storm modes. The tornado risk will be greatest with quasi-discrete supercells (potentially a few strong tornadoes) near and south of the OH River, but some tornado threat will probably develop with a squall line as it matures through the afternoon/evening. As storm coverage increases, multiple swaths of numerous to potentially widespread severe/damaging winds appear likely as one or more clusters moves quickly east-northeastward over the OH Valley and southern Lower MI. The threat for damaging winds and tornadoes should continue this evening into the overnight hours, until convection outpaces the low-level moisture return and eventually weakens over the upper OH Valley and central Appalachians. ...Central/East Texas into the Lower/Mid Mississippi Valley/Mid-South and Southeast... Strong destabilization is anticipated across the Ark-La-Tex east and northeastward into the Mid South. Rich low-level moisture (mid to upper 60s to around 70 deg F dewpoints) will stream northward across TX ahead of the dryline, and the lower/mid MS Valley and Southeast ahead of the cold front. Model guidance continues to indicate rapid and intense thunderstorm development during the afternoon from parts of north/east TX northeastward into AR. Supercells are expected initially, with 40-50+ kt of deep-layer shear supporting robust updraft organization and rotation. A favorable setup exists for large to very large hail with the stronger supercells. It appears the greatest risk for several tornadoes will focus over parts of the Mid-South from eastern AR into western TN on the southern periphery of an intensification of 850-mb flow towards evening. Forecast soundings show moderate to locally strong buoyancy (2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE) on the northern rim of 66-68 deg F dewpoints, and co-located with strong southwesterly flow veering to westerly by early evening. It is during the 22-04 UTC period in which forecast hodographs enlarge in the low levels and become more favorable for discrete supercells. The strong tornado risk may maximize within this corridor from parts of eastern AR eastward into western and perhaps Middle TN during the evening. Additional severe storms are probable farther south as activity from the Ark-La-Tex moves east into the lower MS Valley and central Gulf Coast states during the late afternoon into tonight. In addition to large to very large hail, damaging gusts and a tornado risk will likely accompany the stronger storms with a gradual lessening in overall coverage and intensity during the late night. ...Florida Peninsula... A weak mid-level perturbation will move eastward over FL this afternoon. Modestly enhanced winds aloft, and a veering profile with height through mid levels, should support sufficient deep-layer shear for strong to severe multicells. The stronger diurnally driven storms may be capable of severe hail and damaging winds. ..Smith/Moore.. 03/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Valid 301630Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected through tonight across a broad portion of the Southeast and lower/mid Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes. Multiple swaths of widespread damaging winds appear likely. Large to very large hail and several tornadoes will also occur with supercells. A few of these tornadoes could be strong. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a lead mid-level shortwave trough moving quickly northeastward across MO, while an upstream disturbance over the TX Panhandle/western OK rounds the base of a larger-scale trough over the central U.S. Surface analysis places a cyclone near the IA/IL/WI border with a trailing cold front south-southwestward through the lower MO Valley and into eastern OK and north TX. This front will push east through the OH Valley and into the lower MS Valley by early Monday morning and focus thunderstorm development. ...Midwest/Ohio Valley to the Great Lakes... Visible-satellite imagery shows cloud breaks to the immediate east of the lead mid-level disturbance as a moist/warm conveyor (40-kt southwesterly LLJ) maintains a fetch of seasonably rich moisture into the region. Additional thinning cloud cover and heating through the early to mid afternoon will lead to thunderstorms developing and intensifying. A belt of 50-80 kt 500-mb flow will overspread the destabilizing airmass and yield ample deep-layer shear for organized convection. The stronger early storms will favor supercell and banded linear modes, with the supercells posing a threat for large to very large hail (around 1.5-2.5 inch diameter) given the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates and favorable deep-layer shear. Meridional upper-level flow from I-70 northward will favor a quicker transition to linear structures compared to farther south/southwest, where hodographs will promote a longer window of opportunity for cellular (discrete and clusters) storm modes. The tornado risk will be greatest with quasi-discrete supercells (potentially a few strong tornadoes) near and south of the OH River, but some tornado threat will probably develop with a squall line as it matures through the afternoon/evening. As storm coverage increases, multiple swaths of numerous to potentially widespread severe/damaging winds appear likely as one or more clusters moves quickly east-northeastward over the OH Valley and southern Lower MI. The threat for damaging winds and tornadoes should continue this evening into the overnight hours, until convection outpaces the low-level moisture return and eventually weakens over the upper OH Valley and central Appalachians. ...Central/East Texas into the Lower/Mid Mississippi Valley/Mid-South and Southeast... Strong destabilization is anticipated across the Ark-La-Tex east and northeastward into the Mid South. Rich low-level moisture (mid to upper 60s to around 70 deg F dewpoints) will stream northward across TX ahead of the dryline, and the lower/mid MS Valley and Southeast ahead of the cold front. Model guidance continues to indicate rapid and intense thunderstorm development during the afternoon from parts of north/east TX northeastward into AR. Supercells are expected initially, with 40-50+ kt of deep-layer shear supporting robust updraft organization and rotation. A favorable setup exists for large to very large hail with the stronger supercells. It appears the greatest risk for several tornadoes will focus over parts of the Mid-South from eastern AR into western TN on the southern periphery of an intensification of 850-mb flow towards evening. Forecast soundings show moderate to locally strong buoyancy (2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE) on the northern rim of 66-68 deg F dewpoints, and co-located with strong southwesterly flow veering to westerly by early evening. It is during the 22-04 UTC period in which forecast hodographs enlarge in the low levels and become more favorable for discrete supercells. The strong tornado risk may maximize within this corridor from parts of eastern AR eastward into western and perhaps Middle TN during the evening. Additional severe storms are probable farther south as activity from the Ark-La-Tex moves east into the lower MS Valley and central Gulf Coast states during the late afternoon into tonight. In addition to large to very large hail, damaging gusts and a tornado risk will likely accompany the stronger storms with a gradual lessening in overall coverage and intensity during the late night. ...Florida Peninsula... A weak mid-level perturbation will move eastward over FL this afternoon. Modestly enhanced winds aloft, and a veering profile with height through mid levels, should support sufficient deep-layer shear for strong to severe multicells. The stronger diurnally driven storms may be capable of severe hail and damaging winds. ..Smith/Moore.. 03/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Valid 301630Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected through tonight across a broad portion of the Southeast and lower/mid Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes. Multiple swaths of widespread damaging winds appear likely. Large to very large hail and several tornadoes will also occur with supercells. A few of these tornadoes could be strong. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a lead mid-level shortwave trough moving quickly northeastward across MO, while an upstream disturbance over the TX Panhandle/western OK rounds the base of a larger-scale trough over the central U.S. Surface analysis places a cyclone near the IA/IL/WI border with a trailing cold front south-southwestward through the lower MO Valley and into eastern OK and north TX. This front will push east through the OH Valley and into the lower MS Valley by early Monday morning and focus thunderstorm development. ...Midwest/Ohio Valley to the Great Lakes... Visible-satellite imagery shows cloud breaks to the immediate east of the lead mid-level disturbance as a moist/warm conveyor (40-kt southwesterly LLJ) maintains a fetch of seasonably rich moisture into the region. Additional thinning cloud cover and heating through the early to mid afternoon will lead to thunderstorms developing and intensifying. A belt of 50-80 kt 500-mb flow will overspread the destabilizing airmass and yield ample deep-layer shear for organized convection. The stronger early storms will favor supercell and banded linear modes, with the supercells posing a threat for large to very large hail (around 1.5-2.5 inch diameter) given the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates and favorable deep-layer shear. Meridional upper-level flow from I-70 northward will favor a quicker transition to linear structures compared to farther south/southwest, where hodographs will promote a longer window of opportunity for cellular (discrete and clusters) storm modes. The tornado risk will be greatest with quasi-discrete supercells (potentially a few strong tornadoes) near and south of the OH River, but some tornado threat will probably develop with a squall line as it matures through the afternoon/evening. As storm coverage increases, multiple swaths of numerous to potentially widespread severe/damaging winds appear likely as one or more clusters moves quickly east-northeastward over the OH Valley and southern Lower MI. The threat for damaging winds and tornadoes should continue this evening into the overnight hours, until convection outpaces the low-level moisture return and eventually weakens over the upper OH Valley and central Appalachians. ...Central/East Texas into the Lower/Mid Mississippi Valley/Mid-South and Southeast... Strong destabilization is anticipated across the Ark-La-Tex east and northeastward into the Mid South. Rich low-level moisture (mid to upper 60s to around 70 deg F dewpoints) will stream northward across TX ahead of the dryline, and the lower/mid MS Valley and Southeast ahead of the cold front. Model guidance continues to indicate rapid and intense thunderstorm development during the afternoon from parts of north/east TX northeastward into AR. Supercells are expected initially, with 40-50+ kt of deep-layer shear supporting robust updraft organization and rotation. A favorable setup exists for large to very large hail with the stronger supercells. It appears the greatest risk for several tornadoes will focus over parts of the Mid-South from eastern AR into western TN on the southern periphery of an intensification of 850-mb flow towards evening. Forecast soundings show moderate to locally strong buoyancy (2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE) on the northern rim of 66-68 deg F dewpoints, and co-located with strong southwesterly flow veering to westerly by early evening. It is during the 22-04 UTC period in which forecast hodographs enlarge in the low levels and become more favorable for discrete supercells. The strong tornado risk may maximize within this corridor from parts of eastern AR eastward into western and perhaps Middle TN during the evening. Additional severe storms are probable farther south as activity from the Ark-La-Tex moves east into the lower MS Valley and central Gulf Coast states during the late afternoon into tonight. In addition to large to very large hail, damaging gusts and a tornado risk will likely accompany the stronger storms with a gradual lessening in overall coverage and intensity during the late night. ...Florida Peninsula... A weak mid-level perturbation will move eastward over FL this afternoon. Modestly enhanced winds aloft, and a veering profile with height through mid levels, should support sufficient deep-layer shear for strong to severe multicells. The stronger diurnally driven storms may be capable of severe hail and damaging winds. ..Smith/Moore.. 03/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Valid 301630Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected through tonight across a broad portion of the Southeast and lower/mid Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes. Multiple swaths of widespread damaging winds appear likely. Large to very large hail and several tornadoes will also occur with supercells. A few of these tornadoes could be strong. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a lead mid-level shortwave trough moving quickly northeastward across MO, while an upstream disturbance over the TX Panhandle/western OK rounds the base of a larger-scale trough over the central U.S. Surface analysis places a cyclone near the IA/IL/WI border with a trailing cold front south-southwestward through the lower MO Valley and into eastern OK and north TX. This front will push east through the OH Valley and into the lower MS Valley by early Monday morning and focus thunderstorm development. ...Midwest/Ohio Valley to the Great Lakes... Visible-satellite imagery shows cloud breaks to the immediate east of the lead mid-level disturbance as a moist/warm conveyor (40-kt southwesterly LLJ) maintains a fetch of seasonably rich moisture into the region. Additional thinning cloud cover and heating through the early to mid afternoon will lead to thunderstorms developing and intensifying. A belt of 50-80 kt 500-mb flow will overspread the destabilizing airmass and yield ample deep-layer shear for organized convection. The stronger early storms will favor supercell and banded linear modes, with the supercells posing a threat for large to very large hail (around 1.5-2.5 inch diameter) given the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates and favorable deep-layer shear. Meridional upper-level flow from I-70 northward will favor a quicker transition to linear structures compared to farther south/southwest, where hodographs will promote a longer window of opportunity for cellular (discrete and clusters) storm modes. The tornado risk will be greatest with quasi-discrete supercells (potentially a few strong tornadoes) near and south of the OH River, but some tornado threat will probably develop with a squall line as it matures through the afternoon/evening. As storm coverage increases, multiple swaths of numerous to potentially widespread severe/damaging winds appear likely as one or more clusters moves quickly east-northeastward over the OH Valley and southern Lower MI. The threat for damaging winds and tornadoes should continue this evening into the overnight hours, until convection outpaces the low-level moisture return and eventually weakens over the upper OH Valley and central Appalachians. ...Central/East Texas into the Lower/Mid Mississippi Valley/Mid-South and Southeast... Strong destabilization is anticipated across the Ark-La-Tex east and northeastward into the Mid South. Rich low-level moisture (mid to upper 60s to around 70 deg F dewpoints) will stream northward across TX ahead of the dryline, and the lower/mid MS Valley and Southeast ahead of the cold front. Model guidance continues to indicate rapid and intense thunderstorm development during the afternoon from parts of north/east TX northeastward into AR. Supercells are expected initially, with 40-50+ kt of deep-layer shear supporting robust updraft organization and rotation. A favorable setup exists for large to very large hail with the stronger supercells. It appears the greatest risk for several tornadoes will focus over parts of the Mid-South from eastern AR into western TN on the southern periphery of an intensification of 850-mb flow towards evening. Forecast soundings show moderate to locally strong buoyancy (2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE) on the northern rim of 66-68 deg F dewpoints, and co-located with strong southwesterly flow veering to westerly by early evening. It is during the 22-04 UTC period in which forecast hodographs enlarge in the low levels and become more favorable for discrete supercells. The strong tornado risk may maximize within this corridor from parts of eastern AR eastward into western and perhaps Middle TN during the evening. Additional severe storms are probable farther south as activity from the Ark-La-Tex moves east into the lower MS Valley and central Gulf Coast states during the late afternoon into tonight. In addition to large to very large hail, damaging gusts and a tornado risk will likely accompany the stronger storms with a gradual lessening in overall coverage and intensity during the late night. ...Florida Peninsula... A weak mid-level perturbation will move eastward over FL this afternoon. Modestly enhanced winds aloft, and a veering profile with height through mid levels, should support sufficient deep-layer shear for strong to severe multicells. The stronger diurnally driven storms may be capable of severe hail and damaging winds. ..Smith/Moore.. 03/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Valid 301630Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected through tonight across a broad portion of the Southeast and lower/mid Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes. Multiple swaths of widespread damaging winds appear likely. Large to very large hail and several tornadoes will also occur with supercells. A few of these tornadoes could be strong. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a lead mid-level shortwave trough moving quickly northeastward across MO, while an upstream disturbance over the TX Panhandle/western OK rounds the base of a larger-scale trough over the central U.S. Surface analysis places a cyclone near the IA/IL/WI border with a trailing cold front south-southwestward through the lower MO Valley and into eastern OK and north TX. This front will push east through the OH Valley and into the lower MS Valley by early Monday morning and focus thunderstorm development. ...Midwest/Ohio Valley to the Great Lakes... Visible-satellite imagery shows cloud breaks to the immediate east of the lead mid-level disturbance as a moist/warm conveyor (40-kt southwesterly LLJ) maintains a fetch of seasonably rich moisture into the region. Additional thinning cloud cover and heating through the early to mid afternoon will lead to thunderstorms developing and intensifying. A belt of 50-80 kt 500-mb flow will overspread the destabilizing airmass and yield ample deep-layer shear for organized convection. The stronger early storms will favor supercell and banded linear modes, with the supercells posing a threat for large to very large hail (around 1.5-2.5 inch diameter) given the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates and favorable deep-layer shear. Meridional upper-level flow from I-70 northward will favor a quicker transition to linear structures compared to farther south/southwest, where hodographs will promote a longer window of opportunity for cellular (discrete and clusters) storm modes. The tornado risk will be greatest with quasi-discrete supercells (potentially a few strong tornadoes) near and south of the OH River, but some tornado threat will probably develop with a squall line as it matures through the afternoon/evening. As storm coverage increases, multiple swaths of numerous to potentially widespread severe/damaging winds appear likely as one or more clusters moves quickly east-northeastward over the OH Valley and southern Lower MI. The threat for damaging winds and tornadoes should continue this evening into the overnight hours, until convection outpaces the low-level moisture return and eventually weakens over the upper OH Valley and central Appalachians. ...Central/East Texas into the Lower/Mid Mississippi Valley/Mid-South and Southeast... Strong destabilization is anticipated across the Ark-La-Tex east and northeastward into the Mid South. Rich low-level moisture (mid to upper 60s to around 70 deg F dewpoints) will stream northward across TX ahead of the dryline, and the lower/mid MS Valley and Southeast ahead of the cold front. Model guidance continues to indicate rapid and intense thunderstorm development during the afternoon from parts of north/east TX northeastward into AR. Supercells are expected initially, with 40-50+ kt of deep-layer shear supporting robust updraft organization and rotation. A favorable setup exists for large to very large hail with the stronger supercells. It appears the greatest risk for several tornadoes will focus over parts of the Mid-South from eastern AR into western TN on the southern periphery of an intensification of 850-mb flow towards evening. Forecast soundings show moderate to locally strong buoyancy (2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE) on the northern rim of 66-68 deg F dewpoints, and co-located with strong southwesterly flow veering to westerly by early evening. It is during the 22-04 UTC period in which forecast hodographs enlarge in the low levels and become more favorable for discrete supercells. The strong tornado risk may maximize within this corridor from parts of eastern AR eastward into western and perhaps Middle TN during the evening. Additional severe storms are probable farther south as activity from the Ark-La-Tex moves east into the lower MS Valley and central Gulf Coast states during the late afternoon into tonight. In addition to large to very large hail, damaging gusts and a tornado risk will likely accompany the stronger storms with a gradual lessening in overall coverage and intensity during the late night. ...Florida Peninsula... A weak mid-level perturbation will move eastward over FL this afternoon. Modestly enhanced winds aloft, and a veering profile with height through mid levels, should support sufficient deep-layer shear for strong to severe multicells. The stronger diurnally driven storms may be capable of severe hail and damaging winds. ..Smith/Moore.. 03/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Valid 301630Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected through tonight across a broad portion of the Southeast and lower/mid Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes. Multiple swaths of widespread damaging winds appear likely. Large to very large hail and several tornadoes will also occur with supercells. A few of these tornadoes could be strong. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a lead mid-level shortwave trough moving quickly northeastward across MO, while an upstream disturbance over the TX Panhandle/western OK rounds the base of a larger-scale trough over the central U.S. Surface analysis places a cyclone near the IA/IL/WI border with a trailing cold front south-southwestward through the lower MO Valley and into eastern OK and north TX. This front will push east through the OH Valley and into the lower MS Valley by early Monday morning and focus thunderstorm development. ...Midwest/Ohio Valley to the Great Lakes... Visible-satellite imagery shows cloud breaks to the immediate east of the lead mid-level disturbance as a moist/warm conveyor (40-kt southwesterly LLJ) maintains a fetch of seasonably rich moisture into the region. Additional thinning cloud cover and heating through the early to mid afternoon will lead to thunderstorms developing and intensifying. A belt of 50-80 kt 500-mb flow will overspread the destabilizing airmass and yield ample deep-layer shear for organized convection. The stronger early storms will favor supercell and banded linear modes, with the supercells posing a threat for large to very large hail (around 1.5-2.5 inch diameter) given the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates and favorable deep-layer shear. Meridional upper-level flow from I-70 northward will favor a quicker transition to linear structures compared to farther south/southwest, where hodographs will promote a longer window of opportunity for cellular (discrete and clusters) storm modes. The tornado risk will be greatest with quasi-discrete supercells (potentially a few strong tornadoes) near and south of the OH River, but some tornado threat will probably develop with a squall line as it matures through the afternoon/evening. As storm coverage increases, multiple swaths of numerous to potentially widespread severe/damaging winds appear likely as one or more clusters moves quickly east-northeastward over the OH Valley and southern Lower MI. The threat for damaging winds and tornadoes should continue this evening into the overnight hours, until convection outpaces the low-level moisture return and eventually weakens over the upper OH Valley and central Appalachians. ...Central/East Texas into the Lower/Mid Mississippi Valley/Mid-South and Southeast... Strong destabilization is anticipated across the Ark-La-Tex east and northeastward into the Mid South. Rich low-level moisture (mid to upper 60s to around 70 deg F dewpoints) will stream northward across TX ahead of the dryline, and the lower/mid MS Valley and Southeast ahead of the cold front. Model guidance continues to indicate rapid and intense thunderstorm development during the afternoon from parts of north/east TX northeastward into AR. Supercells are expected initially, with 40-50+ kt of deep-layer shear supporting robust updraft organization and rotation. A favorable setup exists for large to very large hail with the stronger supercells. It appears the greatest risk for several tornadoes will focus over parts of the Mid-South from eastern AR into western TN on the southern periphery of an intensification of 850-mb flow towards evening. Forecast soundings show moderate to locally strong buoyancy (2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE) on the northern rim of 66-68 deg F dewpoints, and co-located with strong southwesterly flow veering to westerly by early evening. It is during the 22-04 UTC period in which forecast hodographs enlarge in the low levels and become more favorable for discrete supercells. The strong tornado risk may maximize within this corridor from parts of eastern AR eastward into western and perhaps Middle TN during the evening. Additional severe storms are probable farther south as activity from the Ark-La-Tex moves east into the lower MS Valley and central Gulf Coast states during the late afternoon into tonight. In addition to large to very large hail, damaging gusts and a tornado risk will likely accompany the stronger storms with a gradual lessening in overall coverage and intensity during the late night. ...Florida Peninsula... A weak mid-level perturbation will move eastward over FL this afternoon. Modestly enhanced winds aloft, and a veering profile with height through mid levels, should support sufficient deep-layer shear for strong to severe multicells. The stronger diurnally driven storms may be capable of severe hail and damaging winds. ..Smith/Moore.. 03/30/2025 Read more