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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 03/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025/ ...Synopsis... Preceding an amplified large-scale trough over the western CONUS, midlevel westerly flow will strengthen across the southern/central Rockies -- promoting lee troughing over the High Plains. A modest pressure gradient along the southern periphery of the lee trough and boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will yield dry/breezy conditions across much of NM into southeast CO during the afternoon. As a result, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 03/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025/ ...Synopsis... Preceding an amplified large-scale trough over the western CONUS, midlevel westerly flow will strengthen across the southern/central Rockies -- promoting lee troughing over the High Plains. A modest pressure gradient along the southern periphery of the lee trough and boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will yield dry/breezy conditions across much of NM into southeast CO during the afternoon. As a result, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 03/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025/ ...Synopsis... Preceding an amplified large-scale trough over the western CONUS, midlevel westerly flow will strengthen across the southern/central Rockies -- promoting lee troughing over the High Plains. A modest pressure gradient along the southern periphery of the lee trough and boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will yield dry/breezy conditions across much of NM into southeast CO during the afternoon. As a result, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 03/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025/ ...Synopsis... Preceding an amplified large-scale trough over the western CONUS, midlevel westerly flow will strengthen across the southern/central Rockies -- promoting lee troughing over the High Plains. A modest pressure gradient along the southern periphery of the lee trough and boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will yield dry/breezy conditions across much of NM into southeast CO during the afternoon. As a result, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0070 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 70 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..WENDT..03/30/25 ATTN...WFO...LSX...ILX...PAH...IND... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 70 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC005-019-021-023-025-027-029-033-035-041-045-047-049-051-055- 059-065-077-079-081-101-115-121-135-139-145-147-157-159-165-173- 183-185-189-191-193-199-301940- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOND CHAMPAIGN CHRISTIAN CLARK CLAY CLINTON COLES CRAWFORD CUMBERLAND DOUGLAS EDGAR EDWARDS EFFINGHAM FAYETTE FRANKLIN GALLATIN HAMILTON JACKSON JASPER JEFFERSON LAWRENCE MACON MARION MONTGOMERY MOULTRIE PERRY PIATT RANDOLPH RICHLAND SALINE SHELBY VERMILION WABASH WASHINGTON WAYNE WHITE WILLIAMSON INC005-011-013-015-021-023-027-035-045-051-055-057-059-063-065- 067-081-083-093-095-097-101-105-107-109-119-121-125-129-133-135- 139-145-147-153-157-159-163-165-167-171-173-301940- Read more

WW 0070 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 70 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..WENDT..03/30/25 ATTN...WFO...LSX...ILX...PAH...IND... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 70 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC005-019-021-023-025-027-029-033-035-041-045-047-049-051-055- 059-065-077-079-081-101-115-121-135-139-145-147-157-159-165-173- 183-185-189-191-193-199-301940- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOND CHAMPAIGN CHRISTIAN CLARK CLAY CLINTON COLES CRAWFORD CUMBERLAND DOUGLAS EDGAR EDWARDS EFFINGHAM FAYETTE FRANKLIN GALLATIN HAMILTON JACKSON JASPER JEFFERSON LAWRENCE MACON MARION MONTGOMERY MOULTRIE PERRY PIATT RANDOLPH RICHLAND SALINE SHELBY VERMILION WABASH WASHINGTON WAYNE WHITE WILLIAMSON INC005-011-013-015-021-023-027-035-045-051-055-057-059-063-065- 067-081-083-093-095-097-101-105-107-109-119-121-125-129-133-135- 139-145-147-153-157-159-163-165-167-171-173-301940- Read more

WW 0071 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 71 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..WENDT..03/30/25 ATTN...WFO...LOT...IWX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 71 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC031-043-053-063-075-089-091-093-105-197-301940- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COOK DUPAGE FORD GRUNDY IROQUOIS KANE KANKAKEE KENDALL LIVINGSTON WILL INC001-003-007-009-017-033-039-049-053-069-073-075-085-087-089- 091-099-103-111-113-127-131-141-149-151-169-179-181-183- 301940- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS ALLEN BENTON BLACKFORD CASS DE KALB ELKHART FULTON GRANT HUNTINGTON JASPER JAY KOSCIUSKO LAGRANGE LAKE LA PORTE MARSHALL MIAMI NEWTON NOBLE PORTER PULASKI ST. JOSEPH STARKE Read more

WW 0071 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 71 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..WENDT..03/30/25 ATTN...WFO...LOT...IWX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 71 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC031-043-053-063-075-089-091-093-105-197-301940- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COOK DUPAGE FORD GRUNDY IROQUOIS KANE KANKAKEE KENDALL LIVINGSTON WILL INC001-003-007-009-017-033-039-049-053-069-073-075-085-087-089- 091-099-103-111-113-127-131-141-149-151-169-179-181-183- 301940- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS ALLEN BENTON BLACKFORD CASS DE KALB ELKHART FULTON GRANT HUNTINGTON JASPER JAY KOSCIUSKO LAGRANGE LAKE LA PORTE MARSHALL MIAMI NEWTON NOBLE PORTER PULASKI ST. JOSEPH STARKE Read more

MD 0296 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR EAST-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
Mesoscale Discussion 0296 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1104 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Areas affected...East-central/southeast Missouri...southern Illinois Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 301604Z - 301800Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...A watch will likely be needed, particularly for areas near and east of the Mississippi River. All severe hazards are possible with a mix of linear segments and supercells. DISCUSSION...A prominent shortwave trough is evident on water vapor imagery in central Missouri. Tied to this feature, weak convection has been slowly deepening in parts of eastern Missouri as it moves northeastward. Downstream of this, temperatures in southern/central Illinois have risen into the low 70s F given the more broken cloud cover. The general consensus of short-term CAM guidance is that convection will strengthen in the vicinity of the Mississippi River. This seems reasonable given current environmental trends. That being said, the need for a watch in the short term is not entirely certain. Potential for a watch in the next couple of hours, particularly for portions of southern Illinois, are higher than points to the west. Storm mode is expected to be a mix of linear segments, especially with northward extent, and some supercells (more likely towards the Ohio Valley). Steep mid-level lapse rates will support large to very-large hail with initial or sustained supercells. Fast moving storms and enhanced low-level flow will promote swaths of wind damage. The tornado threat is somewhat less clear, but will be maximized with any discrete storms. Line-embedded circulations/QLCS tornadoes are also possible given sufficient low-level hodograph curvature. A strong tornado or two could occur. A watch will likely be needed by early afternoon. Exact timing is not clear and some locations west of the River may not destabilize enough in the short term for an organized severe threat. ..Wendt/Smith.. 03/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...SGF... LAT...LON 37079078 37259107 37579124 38099134 38649120 39069083 39749035 40118977 40188936 40118870 39698827 38438813 37738856 37128987 37079078 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...SOUTHEAST...AND CAROLINAS/VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Strong/severe thunderstorms -- with a threat for scattered to widespread damaging winds and several tornadoes -- are forecast Monday from portions of the Northeast southwestward to the central Gulf Coast region. ...Synopsis... The primary synoptic features on Monday will be influenced by extensive antecedent and ongoing convection, but in general, one significant mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move from the lower Great Lakes toward the Canadian Maritimes, while a lower-amplitude midlevel shortwave trough will move from the Mid-South/Southeast toward the Carolinas/Mid Atlantic. A deep surface low will move across Quebec through the day, as a trailing cold front advances southeastward from the Northeast/New England into parts of the Southeast. ...Southeast into the Carolinas/Virginia... While uncertainty remains regarding antecedent convective evolution on D1/Sunday, latest guidance generally suggests that an organized storm cluster will ongoing Monday morning across parts of LA/MS/AL, potentially aided by the trailing shortwave trough moving out of the southern Plains. Favorable low-level moisture, moderate downstream buoyancy, and 30-50 kt in the 850-700 mb layer will help to maintain potential for an organized cluster to move eastward into parts of GA/SC through the day, accompanied by a threat for scattered to widespread damaging winds. Low-level shear/SRH will be sufficient to support some tornado threat as well, both with QLCS circulations and also with any embedded supercells. In addition to a tornado threat, any sustained supercells would also pose a threat of isolated hail. The anticipated storm cluster will tend to outpace the primary cold front, with some potential for at least isolated development in the wake of early-day convection. Uncertainty remains high regarding the severe potential with any second round of convection in this region. Farther north into parts of NC/VA, relatively strong heating of a moist environment will result in moderate buoyancy by early afternoon, though midlevel lapse rates will likely remain weak. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop and spread eastward, with potential for a few organized cells/clusters capable of damaging wind. There will be some potential for an increase in low-level flow/shear and moisture later in the afternoon, which could increase the tornado threat, depending on the timing of storm initiation and maturation. ...Parts of the Mid Atlantic/Northeast... While instability will generally weaken with northward extent, scattered thunderstorm development is expected along/ahead of the front as far north as parts of NY and southern New England. Low/midlevel flow will remain somewhat enhanced along the southern periphery of the cyclone across Quebec, and some potential for damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado may accompany the strongest storms through the day and into the early evening, before the front moves offshore. ..Dean.. 03/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...SOUTHEAST...AND CAROLINAS/VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Strong/severe thunderstorms -- with a threat for scattered to widespread damaging winds and several tornadoes -- are forecast Monday from portions of the Northeast southwestward to the central Gulf Coast region. ...Synopsis... The primary synoptic features on Monday will be influenced by extensive antecedent and ongoing convection, but in general, one significant mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move from the lower Great Lakes toward the Canadian Maritimes, while a lower-amplitude midlevel shortwave trough will move from the Mid-South/Southeast toward the Carolinas/Mid Atlantic. A deep surface low will move across Quebec through the day, as a trailing cold front advances southeastward from the Northeast/New England into parts of the Southeast. ...Southeast into the Carolinas/Virginia... While uncertainty remains regarding antecedent convective evolution on D1/Sunday, latest guidance generally suggests that an organized storm cluster will ongoing Monday morning across parts of LA/MS/AL, potentially aided by the trailing shortwave trough moving out of the southern Plains. Favorable low-level moisture, moderate downstream buoyancy, and 30-50 kt in the 850-700 mb layer will help to maintain potential for an organized cluster to move eastward into parts of GA/SC through the day, accompanied by a threat for scattered to widespread damaging winds. Low-level shear/SRH will be sufficient to support some tornado threat as well, both with QLCS circulations and also with any embedded supercells. In addition to a tornado threat, any sustained supercells would also pose a threat of isolated hail. The anticipated storm cluster will tend to outpace the primary cold front, with some potential for at least isolated development in the wake of early-day convection. Uncertainty remains high regarding the severe potential with any second round of convection in this region. Farther north into parts of NC/VA, relatively strong heating of a moist environment will result in moderate buoyancy by early afternoon, though midlevel lapse rates will likely remain weak. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop and spread eastward, with potential for a few organized cells/clusters capable of damaging wind. There will be some potential for an increase in low-level flow/shear and moisture later in the afternoon, which could increase the tornado threat, depending on the timing of storm initiation and maturation. ...Parts of the Mid Atlantic/Northeast... While instability will generally weaken with northward extent, scattered thunderstorm development is expected along/ahead of the front as far north as parts of NY and southern New England. Low/midlevel flow will remain somewhat enhanced along the southern periphery of the cyclone across Quebec, and some potential for damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado may accompany the strongest storms through the day and into the early evening, before the front moves offshore. ..Dean.. 03/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...SOUTHEAST...AND CAROLINAS/VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Strong/severe thunderstorms -- with a threat for scattered to widespread damaging winds and several tornadoes -- are forecast Monday from portions of the Northeast southwestward to the central Gulf Coast region. ...Synopsis... The primary synoptic features on Monday will be influenced by extensive antecedent and ongoing convection, but in general, one significant mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move from the lower Great Lakes toward the Canadian Maritimes, while a lower-amplitude midlevel shortwave trough will move from the Mid-South/Southeast toward the Carolinas/Mid Atlantic. A deep surface low will move across Quebec through the day, as a trailing cold front advances southeastward from the Northeast/New England into parts of the Southeast. ...Southeast into the Carolinas/Virginia... While uncertainty remains regarding antecedent convective evolution on D1/Sunday, latest guidance generally suggests that an organized storm cluster will ongoing Monday morning across parts of LA/MS/AL, potentially aided by the trailing shortwave trough moving out of the southern Plains. Favorable low-level moisture, moderate downstream buoyancy, and 30-50 kt in the 850-700 mb layer will help to maintain potential for an organized cluster to move eastward into parts of GA/SC through the day, accompanied by a threat for scattered to widespread damaging winds. Low-level shear/SRH will be sufficient to support some tornado threat as well, both with QLCS circulations and also with any embedded supercells. In addition to a tornado threat, any sustained supercells would also pose a threat of isolated hail. The anticipated storm cluster will tend to outpace the primary cold front, with some potential for at least isolated development in the wake of early-day convection. Uncertainty remains high regarding the severe potential with any second round of convection in this region. Farther north into parts of NC/VA, relatively strong heating of a moist environment will result in moderate buoyancy by early afternoon, though midlevel lapse rates will likely remain weak. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop and spread eastward, with potential for a few organized cells/clusters capable of damaging wind. There will be some potential for an increase in low-level flow/shear and moisture later in the afternoon, which could increase the tornado threat, depending on the timing of storm initiation and maturation. ...Parts of the Mid Atlantic/Northeast... While instability will generally weaken with northward extent, scattered thunderstorm development is expected along/ahead of the front as far north as parts of NY and southern New England. Low/midlevel flow will remain somewhat enhanced along the southern periphery of the cyclone across Quebec, and some potential for damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado may accompany the strongest storms through the day and into the early evening, before the front moves offshore. ..Dean.. 03/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...SOUTHEAST...AND CAROLINAS/VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Strong/severe thunderstorms -- with a threat for scattered to widespread damaging winds and several tornadoes -- are forecast Monday from portions of the Northeast southwestward to the central Gulf Coast region. ...Synopsis... The primary synoptic features on Monday will be influenced by extensive antecedent and ongoing convection, but in general, one significant mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move from the lower Great Lakes toward the Canadian Maritimes, while a lower-amplitude midlevel shortwave trough will move from the Mid-South/Southeast toward the Carolinas/Mid Atlantic. A deep surface low will move across Quebec through the day, as a trailing cold front advances southeastward from the Northeast/New England into parts of the Southeast. ...Southeast into the Carolinas/Virginia... While uncertainty remains regarding antecedent convective evolution on D1/Sunday, latest guidance generally suggests that an organized storm cluster will ongoing Monday morning across parts of LA/MS/AL, potentially aided by the trailing shortwave trough moving out of the southern Plains. Favorable low-level moisture, moderate downstream buoyancy, and 30-50 kt in the 850-700 mb layer will help to maintain potential for an organized cluster to move eastward into parts of GA/SC through the day, accompanied by a threat for scattered to widespread damaging winds. Low-level shear/SRH will be sufficient to support some tornado threat as well, both with QLCS circulations and also with any embedded supercells. In addition to a tornado threat, any sustained supercells would also pose a threat of isolated hail. The anticipated storm cluster will tend to outpace the primary cold front, with some potential for at least isolated development in the wake of early-day convection. Uncertainty remains high regarding the severe potential with any second round of convection in this region. Farther north into parts of NC/VA, relatively strong heating of a moist environment will result in moderate buoyancy by early afternoon, though midlevel lapse rates will likely remain weak. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop and spread eastward, with potential for a few organized cells/clusters capable of damaging wind. There will be some potential for an increase in low-level flow/shear and moisture later in the afternoon, which could increase the tornado threat, depending on the timing of storm initiation and maturation. ...Parts of the Mid Atlantic/Northeast... While instability will generally weaken with northward extent, scattered thunderstorm development is expected along/ahead of the front as far north as parts of NY and southern New England. Low/midlevel flow will remain somewhat enhanced along the southern periphery of the cyclone across Quebec, and some potential for damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado may accompany the strongest storms through the day and into the early evening, before the front moves offshore. ..Dean.. 03/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...SOUTHEAST...AND CAROLINAS/VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Strong/severe thunderstorms -- with a threat for scattered to widespread damaging winds and several tornadoes -- are forecast Monday from portions of the Northeast southwestward to the central Gulf Coast region. ...Synopsis... The primary synoptic features on Monday will be influenced by extensive antecedent and ongoing convection, but in general, one significant mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move from the lower Great Lakes toward the Canadian Maritimes, while a lower-amplitude midlevel shortwave trough will move from the Mid-South/Southeast toward the Carolinas/Mid Atlantic. A deep surface low will move across Quebec through the day, as a trailing cold front advances southeastward from the Northeast/New England into parts of the Southeast. ...Southeast into the Carolinas/Virginia... While uncertainty remains regarding antecedent convective evolution on D1/Sunday, latest guidance generally suggests that an organized storm cluster will ongoing Monday morning across parts of LA/MS/AL, potentially aided by the trailing shortwave trough moving out of the southern Plains. Favorable low-level moisture, moderate downstream buoyancy, and 30-50 kt in the 850-700 mb layer will help to maintain potential for an organized cluster to move eastward into parts of GA/SC through the day, accompanied by a threat for scattered to widespread damaging winds. Low-level shear/SRH will be sufficient to support some tornado threat as well, both with QLCS circulations and also with any embedded supercells. In addition to a tornado threat, any sustained supercells would also pose a threat of isolated hail. The anticipated storm cluster will tend to outpace the primary cold front, with some potential for at least isolated development in the wake of early-day convection. Uncertainty remains high regarding the severe potential with any second round of convection in this region. Farther north into parts of NC/VA, relatively strong heating of a moist environment will result in moderate buoyancy by early afternoon, though midlevel lapse rates will likely remain weak. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop and spread eastward, with potential for a few organized cells/clusters capable of damaging wind. There will be some potential for an increase in low-level flow/shear and moisture later in the afternoon, which could increase the tornado threat, depending on the timing of storm initiation and maturation. ...Parts of the Mid Atlantic/Northeast... While instability will generally weaken with northward extent, scattered thunderstorm development is expected along/ahead of the front as far north as parts of NY and southern New England. Low/midlevel flow will remain somewhat enhanced along the southern periphery of the cyclone across Quebec, and some potential for damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado may accompany the strongest storms through the day and into the early evening, before the front moves offshore. ..Dean.. 03/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...SOUTHEAST...AND CAROLINAS/VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Strong/severe thunderstorms -- with a threat for scattered to widespread damaging winds and several tornadoes -- are forecast Monday from portions of the Northeast southwestward to the central Gulf Coast region. ...Synopsis... The primary synoptic features on Monday will be influenced by extensive antecedent and ongoing convection, but in general, one significant mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move from the lower Great Lakes toward the Canadian Maritimes, while a lower-amplitude midlevel shortwave trough will move from the Mid-South/Southeast toward the Carolinas/Mid Atlantic. A deep surface low will move across Quebec through the day, as a trailing cold front advances southeastward from the Northeast/New England into parts of the Southeast. ...Southeast into the Carolinas/Virginia... While uncertainty remains regarding antecedent convective evolution on D1/Sunday, latest guidance generally suggests that an organized storm cluster will ongoing Monday morning across parts of LA/MS/AL, potentially aided by the trailing shortwave trough moving out of the southern Plains. Favorable low-level moisture, moderate downstream buoyancy, and 30-50 kt in the 850-700 mb layer will help to maintain potential for an organized cluster to move eastward into parts of GA/SC through the day, accompanied by a threat for scattered to widespread damaging winds. Low-level shear/SRH will be sufficient to support some tornado threat as well, both with QLCS circulations and also with any embedded supercells. In addition to a tornado threat, any sustained supercells would also pose a threat of isolated hail. The anticipated storm cluster will tend to outpace the primary cold front, with some potential for at least isolated development in the wake of early-day convection. Uncertainty remains high regarding the severe potential with any second round of convection in this region. Farther north into parts of NC/VA, relatively strong heating of a moist environment will result in moderate buoyancy by early afternoon, though midlevel lapse rates will likely remain weak. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop and spread eastward, with potential for a few organized cells/clusters capable of damaging wind. There will be some potential for an increase in low-level flow/shear and moisture later in the afternoon, which could increase the tornado threat, depending on the timing of storm initiation and maturation. ...Parts of the Mid Atlantic/Northeast... While instability will generally weaken with northward extent, scattered thunderstorm development is expected along/ahead of the front as far north as parts of NY and southern New England. Low/midlevel flow will remain somewhat enhanced along the southern periphery of the cyclone across Quebec, and some potential for damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado may accompany the strongest storms through the day and into the early evening, before the front moves offshore. ..Dean.. 03/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...SOUTHEAST...AND CAROLINAS/VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Strong/severe thunderstorms -- with a threat for scattered to widespread damaging winds and several tornadoes -- are forecast Monday from portions of the Northeast southwestward to the central Gulf Coast region. ...Synopsis... The primary synoptic features on Monday will be influenced by extensive antecedent and ongoing convection, but in general, one significant mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move from the lower Great Lakes toward the Canadian Maritimes, while a lower-amplitude midlevel shortwave trough will move from the Mid-South/Southeast toward the Carolinas/Mid Atlantic. A deep surface low will move across Quebec through the day, as a trailing cold front advances southeastward from the Northeast/New England into parts of the Southeast. ...Southeast into the Carolinas/Virginia... While uncertainty remains regarding antecedent convective evolution on D1/Sunday, latest guidance generally suggests that an organized storm cluster will ongoing Monday morning across parts of LA/MS/AL, potentially aided by the trailing shortwave trough moving out of the southern Plains. Favorable low-level moisture, moderate downstream buoyancy, and 30-50 kt in the 850-700 mb layer will help to maintain potential for an organized cluster to move eastward into parts of GA/SC through the day, accompanied by a threat for scattered to widespread damaging winds. Low-level shear/SRH will be sufficient to support some tornado threat as well, both with QLCS circulations and also with any embedded supercells. In addition to a tornado threat, any sustained supercells would also pose a threat of isolated hail. The anticipated storm cluster will tend to outpace the primary cold front, with some potential for at least isolated development in the wake of early-day convection. Uncertainty remains high regarding the severe potential with any second round of convection in this region. Farther north into parts of NC/VA, relatively strong heating of a moist environment will result in moderate buoyancy by early afternoon, though midlevel lapse rates will likely remain weak. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop and spread eastward, with potential for a few organized cells/clusters capable of damaging wind. There will be some potential for an increase in low-level flow/shear and moisture later in the afternoon, which could increase the tornado threat, depending on the timing of storm initiation and maturation. ...Parts of the Mid Atlantic/Northeast... While instability will generally weaken with northward extent, scattered thunderstorm development is expected along/ahead of the front as far north as parts of NY and southern New England. Low/midlevel flow will remain somewhat enhanced along the southern periphery of the cyclone across Quebec, and some potential for damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado may accompany the strongest storms through the day and into the early evening, before the front moves offshore. ..Dean.. 03/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...SOUTHEAST...AND CAROLINAS/VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Strong/severe thunderstorms -- with a threat for scattered to widespread damaging winds and several tornadoes -- are forecast Monday from portions of the Northeast southwestward to the central Gulf Coast region. ...Synopsis... The primary synoptic features on Monday will be influenced by extensive antecedent and ongoing convection, but in general, one significant mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move from the lower Great Lakes toward the Canadian Maritimes, while a lower-amplitude midlevel shortwave trough will move from the Mid-South/Southeast toward the Carolinas/Mid Atlantic. A deep surface low will move across Quebec through the day, as a trailing cold front advances southeastward from the Northeast/New England into parts of the Southeast. ...Southeast into the Carolinas/Virginia... While uncertainty remains regarding antecedent convective evolution on D1/Sunday, latest guidance generally suggests that an organized storm cluster will ongoing Monday morning across parts of LA/MS/AL, potentially aided by the trailing shortwave trough moving out of the southern Plains. Favorable low-level moisture, moderate downstream buoyancy, and 30-50 kt in the 850-700 mb layer will help to maintain potential for an organized cluster to move eastward into parts of GA/SC through the day, accompanied by a threat for scattered to widespread damaging winds. Low-level shear/SRH will be sufficient to support some tornado threat as well, both with QLCS circulations and also with any embedded supercells. In addition to a tornado threat, any sustained supercells would also pose a threat of isolated hail. The anticipated storm cluster will tend to outpace the primary cold front, with some potential for at least isolated development in the wake of early-day convection. Uncertainty remains high regarding the severe potential with any second round of convection in this region. Farther north into parts of NC/VA, relatively strong heating of a moist environment will result in moderate buoyancy by early afternoon, though midlevel lapse rates will likely remain weak. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop and spread eastward, with potential for a few organized cells/clusters capable of damaging wind. There will be some potential for an increase in low-level flow/shear and moisture later in the afternoon, which could increase the tornado threat, depending on the timing of storm initiation and maturation. ...Parts of the Mid Atlantic/Northeast... While instability will generally weaken with northward extent, scattered thunderstorm development is expected along/ahead of the front as far north as parts of NY and southern New England. Low/midlevel flow will remain somewhat enhanced along the southern periphery of the cyclone across Quebec, and some potential for damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado may accompany the strongest storms through the day and into the early evening, before the front moves offshore. ..Dean.. 03/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...SOUTHEAST...AND CAROLINAS/VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Strong/severe thunderstorms -- with a threat for scattered to widespread damaging winds and several tornadoes -- are forecast Monday from portions of the Northeast southwestward to the central Gulf Coast region. ...Synopsis... The primary synoptic features on Monday will be influenced by extensive antecedent and ongoing convection, but in general, one significant mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move from the lower Great Lakes toward the Canadian Maritimes, while a lower-amplitude midlevel shortwave trough will move from the Mid-South/Southeast toward the Carolinas/Mid Atlantic. A deep surface low will move across Quebec through the day, as a trailing cold front advances southeastward from the Northeast/New England into parts of the Southeast. ...Southeast into the Carolinas/Virginia... While uncertainty remains regarding antecedent convective evolution on D1/Sunday, latest guidance generally suggests that an organized storm cluster will ongoing Monday morning across parts of LA/MS/AL, potentially aided by the trailing shortwave trough moving out of the southern Plains. Favorable low-level moisture, moderate downstream buoyancy, and 30-50 kt in the 850-700 mb layer will help to maintain potential for an organized cluster to move eastward into parts of GA/SC through the day, accompanied by a threat for scattered to widespread damaging winds. Low-level shear/SRH will be sufficient to support some tornado threat as well, both with QLCS circulations and also with any embedded supercells. In addition to a tornado threat, any sustained supercells would also pose a threat of isolated hail. The anticipated storm cluster will tend to outpace the primary cold front, with some potential for at least isolated development in the wake of early-day convection. Uncertainty remains high regarding the severe potential with any second round of convection in this region. Farther north into parts of NC/VA, relatively strong heating of a moist environment will result in moderate buoyancy by early afternoon, though midlevel lapse rates will likely remain weak. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop and spread eastward, with potential for a few organized cells/clusters capable of damaging wind. There will be some potential for an increase in low-level flow/shear and moisture later in the afternoon, which could increase the tornado threat, depending on the timing of storm initiation and maturation. ...Parts of the Mid Atlantic/Northeast... While instability will generally weaken with northward extent, scattered thunderstorm development is expected along/ahead of the front as far north as parts of NY and southern New England. Low/midlevel flow will remain somewhat enhanced along the southern periphery of the cyclone across Quebec, and some potential for damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado may accompany the strongest storms through the day and into the early evening, before the front moves offshore. ..Dean.. 03/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...SOUTHEAST...AND CAROLINAS/VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Strong/severe thunderstorms -- with a threat for scattered to widespread damaging winds and several tornadoes -- are forecast Monday from portions of the Northeast southwestward to the central Gulf Coast region. ...Synopsis... The primary synoptic features on Monday will be influenced by extensive antecedent and ongoing convection, but in general, one significant mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move from the lower Great Lakes toward the Canadian Maritimes, while a lower-amplitude midlevel shortwave trough will move from the Mid-South/Southeast toward the Carolinas/Mid Atlantic. A deep surface low will move across Quebec through the day, as a trailing cold front advances southeastward from the Northeast/New England into parts of the Southeast. ...Southeast into the Carolinas/Virginia... While uncertainty remains regarding antecedent convective evolution on D1/Sunday, latest guidance generally suggests that an organized storm cluster will ongoing Monday morning across parts of LA/MS/AL, potentially aided by the trailing shortwave trough moving out of the southern Plains. Favorable low-level moisture, moderate downstream buoyancy, and 30-50 kt in the 850-700 mb layer will help to maintain potential for an organized cluster to move eastward into parts of GA/SC through the day, accompanied by a threat for scattered to widespread damaging winds. Low-level shear/SRH will be sufficient to support some tornado threat as well, both with QLCS circulations and also with any embedded supercells. In addition to a tornado threat, any sustained supercells would also pose a threat of isolated hail. The anticipated storm cluster will tend to outpace the primary cold front, with some potential for at least isolated development in the wake of early-day convection. Uncertainty remains high regarding the severe potential with any second round of convection in this region. Farther north into parts of NC/VA, relatively strong heating of a moist environment will result in moderate buoyancy by early afternoon, though midlevel lapse rates will likely remain weak. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop and spread eastward, with potential for a few organized cells/clusters capable of damaging wind. There will be some potential for an increase in low-level flow/shear and moisture later in the afternoon, which could increase the tornado threat, depending on the timing of storm initiation and maturation. ...Parts of the Mid Atlantic/Northeast... While instability will generally weaken with northward extent, scattered thunderstorm development is expected along/ahead of the front as far north as parts of NY and southern New England. Low/midlevel flow will remain somewhat enhanced along the southern periphery of the cyclone across Quebec, and some potential for damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado may accompany the strongest storms through the day and into the early evening, before the front moves offshore. ..Dean.. 03/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...SOUTHEAST...AND CAROLINAS/VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Strong/severe thunderstorms -- with a threat for scattered to widespread damaging winds and several tornadoes -- are forecast Monday from portions of the Northeast southwestward to the central Gulf Coast region. ...Synopsis... The primary synoptic features on Monday will be influenced by extensive antecedent and ongoing convection, but in general, one significant mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move from the lower Great Lakes toward the Canadian Maritimes, while a lower-amplitude midlevel shortwave trough will move from the Mid-South/Southeast toward the Carolinas/Mid Atlantic. A deep surface low will move across Quebec through the day, as a trailing cold front advances southeastward from the Northeast/New England into parts of the Southeast. ...Southeast into the Carolinas/Virginia... While uncertainty remains regarding antecedent convective evolution on D1/Sunday, latest guidance generally suggests that an organized storm cluster will ongoing Monday morning across parts of LA/MS/AL, potentially aided by the trailing shortwave trough moving out of the southern Plains. Favorable low-level moisture, moderate downstream buoyancy, and 30-50 kt in the 850-700 mb layer will help to maintain potential for an organized cluster to move eastward into parts of GA/SC through the day, accompanied by a threat for scattered to widespread damaging winds. Low-level shear/SRH will be sufficient to support some tornado threat as well, both with QLCS circulations and also with any embedded supercells. In addition to a tornado threat, any sustained supercells would also pose a threat of isolated hail. The anticipated storm cluster will tend to outpace the primary cold front, with some potential for at least isolated development in the wake of early-day convection. Uncertainty remains high regarding the severe potential with any second round of convection in this region. Farther north into parts of NC/VA, relatively strong heating of a moist environment will result in moderate buoyancy by early afternoon, though midlevel lapse rates will likely remain weak. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop and spread eastward, with potential for a few organized cells/clusters capable of damaging wind. There will be some potential for an increase in low-level flow/shear and moisture later in the afternoon, which could increase the tornado threat, depending on the timing of storm initiation and maturation. ...Parts of the Mid Atlantic/Northeast... While instability will generally weaken with northward extent, scattered thunderstorm development is expected along/ahead of the front as far north as parts of NY and southern New England. Low/midlevel flow will remain somewhat enhanced along the southern periphery of the cyclone across Quebec, and some potential for damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado may accompany the strongest storms through the day and into the early evening, before the front moves offshore. ..Dean.. 03/30/2025 Read more