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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF SERN IL...IN...WRN AND CENTRAL OH...SERN MO...CNTRL AND ERN AR...KY...TN...NWRN AL...NRN AND CNTRL MS...NRN LA...NERN TX... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm development is likely to become widespread across the Ohio Valley southwestward through the Tennessee and lower Mississippi Valleys this afternoon into tonight. Initially, this activity will pose a risk for large large hail. A few tornadoes are also possible, before damaging wind gusts become the more prominent potential severe hazard this evening into tonight. ...Discussion... To the north of an intense, zonal jet across the southern mid-latitude eastern Pacific, a significant mid-level low is forecast to progress slowly eastward across the northeastern Pacific, toward the Pacific Northwest coast, accompanied by a deep occluded surface cyclone. This has been preceded inland by a series of less prominent perturbations, a couple of which may be consolidating into more notable larger-scale mid-level troughing to the east-northeast of the southern Rockies. Models continue to indicate that this evolving mid-level wave will accelerate into a broadly confluent regime across the Ohio Valley through lower Great Lakes region, between a significant short wave trough digging across Manitoba/Ontario and downstream ridging overspreading the St. Lawrence Valley/Northeast. Models suggest that an associated surface low, likely initially over eastern Iowa at the outset of the period, will continue an east-northeastward migration into and across the Great Lakes, but it may not undergo substantive further deepening until late this afternoon into tonight across the lower Great Lakes into southeastern Ontario/southwestern Quebec. Trailing this cyclone, a notable cold front is forecast to progress southeastward through the southern Great Plains, and eastward through the mid/lower Mississippi Valley and middle Ohio Valley by late tonight. The front will continue to be preceded by a moistening southerly return flow, which may include surface dew points increasing through the lower/mid 60s F as far north as southern portions of the Great Lakes region, at least initially beneath a remnant plume of elevated mixed-layer air emerging from the high plains. ...Ohio Valley into southeastern Great Plains... Models suggest that thermodynamic profiles will become supportive of sizable conditional and convective instability, with a fairly broad reservoir of CAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg evolving across the southeastern Great Plains through lower Mississippi Valley, as far north as the confluence with the Ohio River by late this afternoon. Farther north, mixed-layer CAPE is likely to increase in excess of 1000 J/kg during the day, within a narrower corridor across/north-northeast of the middle Mississippi Valley, where mid/upper forcing for ascent is likely to initiate intensifying thunderstorm activity by early to mid afternoon. This may include a few supercells posing a risk for large hail and potential for a couple of tornadoes, before convection tends to gradually consolidate and grow upscale, accompanied by increasing risk for damaging wind gusts. This initial activity may be maintained northeastward and eastward through much of the Ohio Valley by late this evening, before tending to weaken while acquiring less unstable inflow. Meanwhile, subsequent initiation of storms is likely southwestward ahead of the cold front, across the lower Ohio Valley/Mid South toward the Ark-La-Tex later this afternoon into this evening. It appears possible that this may coincide with strengthening lower/mid-tropospheric flow accompanying a trailing jet streak. And a period of intensifying discrete supercell development might not be out of the question, before activity tends to grow upscale into one or more organizing clusters. Depending on how quickly this occurs, there may be a conditional risk for a couple of strong tornadoes, before damaging straight line winds, and perhaps brief tornadoes with evolving near-surface meso vortices, becomes the more prominent hazard southeastward into the Gulf Coast states overnight. ...Florida Peninsula vicinity... HREF and NCEP SREF guidance indicates rather high probabilities for thunderstorm development, as weak mid-level troughing overspreads the peninsula today. Beneath modestly cool mid-level temperatures, it appears that boundary-layer moisture will support moderate CAPE, and thermodynamic profiles may become conducive to a few stronger storms with small, melting hail contributing to potential for localized damaging downbursts. ..Kerr/Weinman.. 03/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF SERN IL...IN...WRN AND CENTRAL OH...SERN MO...CNTRL AND ERN AR...KY...TN...NWRN AL...NRN AND CNTRL MS...NRN LA...NERN TX... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm development is likely to become widespread across the Ohio Valley southwestward through the Tennessee and lower Mississippi Valleys this afternoon into tonight. Initially, this activity will pose a risk for large large hail. A few tornadoes are also possible, before damaging wind gusts become the more prominent potential severe hazard this evening into tonight. ...Discussion... To the north of an intense, zonal jet across the southern mid-latitude eastern Pacific, a significant mid-level low is forecast to progress slowly eastward across the northeastern Pacific, toward the Pacific Northwest coast, accompanied by a deep occluded surface cyclone. This has been preceded inland by a series of less prominent perturbations, a couple of which may be consolidating into more notable larger-scale mid-level troughing to the east-northeast of the southern Rockies. Models continue to indicate that this evolving mid-level wave will accelerate into a broadly confluent regime across the Ohio Valley through lower Great Lakes region, between a significant short wave trough digging across Manitoba/Ontario and downstream ridging overspreading the St. Lawrence Valley/Northeast. Models suggest that an associated surface low, likely initially over eastern Iowa at the outset of the period, will continue an east-northeastward migration into and across the Great Lakes, but it may not undergo substantive further deepening until late this afternoon into tonight across the lower Great Lakes into southeastern Ontario/southwestern Quebec. Trailing this cyclone, a notable cold front is forecast to progress southeastward through the southern Great Plains, and eastward through the mid/lower Mississippi Valley and middle Ohio Valley by late tonight. The front will continue to be preceded by a moistening southerly return flow, which may include surface dew points increasing through the lower/mid 60s F as far north as southern portions of the Great Lakes region, at least initially beneath a remnant plume of elevated mixed-layer air emerging from the high plains. ...Ohio Valley into southeastern Great Plains... Models suggest that thermodynamic profiles will become supportive of sizable conditional and convective instability, with a fairly broad reservoir of CAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg evolving across the southeastern Great Plains through lower Mississippi Valley, as far north as the confluence with the Ohio River by late this afternoon. Farther north, mixed-layer CAPE is likely to increase in excess of 1000 J/kg during the day, within a narrower corridor across/north-northeast of the middle Mississippi Valley, where mid/upper forcing for ascent is likely to initiate intensifying thunderstorm activity by early to mid afternoon. This may include a few supercells posing a risk for large hail and potential for a couple of tornadoes, before convection tends to gradually consolidate and grow upscale, accompanied by increasing risk for damaging wind gusts. This initial activity may be maintained northeastward and eastward through much of the Ohio Valley by late this evening, before tending to weaken while acquiring less unstable inflow. Meanwhile, subsequent initiation of storms is likely southwestward ahead of the cold front, across the lower Ohio Valley/Mid South toward the Ark-La-Tex later this afternoon into this evening. It appears possible that this may coincide with strengthening lower/mid-tropospheric flow accompanying a trailing jet streak. And a period of intensifying discrete supercell development might not be out of the question, before activity tends to grow upscale into one or more organizing clusters. Depending on how quickly this occurs, there may be a conditional risk for a couple of strong tornadoes, before damaging straight line winds, and perhaps brief tornadoes with evolving near-surface meso vortices, becomes the more prominent hazard southeastward into the Gulf Coast states overnight. ...Florida Peninsula vicinity... HREF and NCEP SREF guidance indicates rather high probabilities for thunderstorm development, as weak mid-level troughing overspreads the peninsula today. Beneath modestly cool mid-level temperatures, it appears that boundary-layer moisture will support moderate CAPE, and thermodynamic profiles may become conducive to a few stronger storms with small, melting hail contributing to potential for localized damaging downbursts. ..Kerr/Weinman.. 03/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF SERN IL...IN...WRN AND CENTRAL OH...SERN MO...CNTRL AND ERN AR...KY...TN...NWRN AL...NRN AND CNTRL MS...NRN LA...NERN TX... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm development is likely to become widespread across the Ohio Valley southwestward through the Tennessee and lower Mississippi Valleys this afternoon into tonight. Initially, this activity will pose a risk for large large hail. A few tornadoes are also possible, before damaging wind gusts become the more prominent potential severe hazard this evening into tonight. ...Discussion... To the north of an intense, zonal jet across the southern mid-latitude eastern Pacific, a significant mid-level low is forecast to progress slowly eastward across the northeastern Pacific, toward the Pacific Northwest coast, accompanied by a deep occluded surface cyclone. This has been preceded inland by a series of less prominent perturbations, a couple of which may be consolidating into more notable larger-scale mid-level troughing to the east-northeast of the southern Rockies. Models continue to indicate that this evolving mid-level wave will accelerate into a broadly confluent regime across the Ohio Valley through lower Great Lakes region, between a significant short wave trough digging across Manitoba/Ontario and downstream ridging overspreading the St. Lawrence Valley/Northeast. Models suggest that an associated surface low, likely initially over eastern Iowa at the outset of the period, will continue an east-northeastward migration into and across the Great Lakes, but it may not undergo substantive further deepening until late this afternoon into tonight across the lower Great Lakes into southeastern Ontario/southwestern Quebec. Trailing this cyclone, a notable cold front is forecast to progress southeastward through the southern Great Plains, and eastward through the mid/lower Mississippi Valley and middle Ohio Valley by late tonight. The front will continue to be preceded by a moistening southerly return flow, which may include surface dew points increasing through the lower/mid 60s F as far north as southern portions of the Great Lakes region, at least initially beneath a remnant plume of elevated mixed-layer air emerging from the high plains. ...Ohio Valley into southeastern Great Plains... Models suggest that thermodynamic profiles will become supportive of sizable conditional and convective instability, with a fairly broad reservoir of CAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg evolving across the southeastern Great Plains through lower Mississippi Valley, as far north as the confluence with the Ohio River by late this afternoon. Farther north, mixed-layer CAPE is likely to increase in excess of 1000 J/kg during the day, within a narrower corridor across/north-northeast of the middle Mississippi Valley, where mid/upper forcing for ascent is likely to initiate intensifying thunderstorm activity by early to mid afternoon. This may include a few supercells posing a risk for large hail and potential for a couple of tornadoes, before convection tends to gradually consolidate and grow upscale, accompanied by increasing risk for damaging wind gusts. This initial activity may be maintained northeastward and eastward through much of the Ohio Valley by late this evening, before tending to weaken while acquiring less unstable inflow. Meanwhile, subsequent initiation of storms is likely southwestward ahead of the cold front, across the lower Ohio Valley/Mid South toward the Ark-La-Tex later this afternoon into this evening. It appears possible that this may coincide with strengthening lower/mid-tropospheric flow accompanying a trailing jet streak. And a period of intensifying discrete supercell development might not be out of the question, before activity tends to grow upscale into one or more organizing clusters. Depending on how quickly this occurs, there may be a conditional risk for a couple of strong tornadoes, before damaging straight line winds, and perhaps brief tornadoes with evolving near-surface meso vortices, becomes the more prominent hazard southeastward into the Gulf Coast states overnight. ...Florida Peninsula vicinity... HREF and NCEP SREF guidance indicates rather high probabilities for thunderstorm development, as weak mid-level troughing overspreads the peninsula today. Beneath modestly cool mid-level temperatures, it appears that boundary-layer moisture will support moderate CAPE, and thermodynamic profiles may become conducive to a few stronger storms with small, melting hail contributing to potential for localized damaging downbursts. ..Kerr/Weinman.. 03/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF SERN IL...IN...WRN AND CENTRAL OH...SERN MO...CNTRL AND ERN AR...KY...TN...NWRN AL...NRN AND CNTRL MS...NRN LA...NERN TX... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm development is likely to become widespread across the Ohio Valley southwestward through the Tennessee and lower Mississippi Valleys this afternoon into tonight. Initially, this activity will pose a risk for large large hail. A few tornadoes are also possible, before damaging wind gusts become the more prominent potential severe hazard this evening into tonight. ...Discussion... To the north of an intense, zonal jet across the southern mid-latitude eastern Pacific, a significant mid-level low is forecast to progress slowly eastward across the northeastern Pacific, toward the Pacific Northwest coast, accompanied by a deep occluded surface cyclone. This has been preceded inland by a series of less prominent perturbations, a couple of which may be consolidating into more notable larger-scale mid-level troughing to the east-northeast of the southern Rockies. Models continue to indicate that this evolving mid-level wave will accelerate into a broadly confluent regime across the Ohio Valley through lower Great Lakes region, between a significant short wave trough digging across Manitoba/Ontario and downstream ridging overspreading the St. Lawrence Valley/Northeast. Models suggest that an associated surface low, likely initially over eastern Iowa at the outset of the period, will continue an east-northeastward migration into and across the Great Lakes, but it may not undergo substantive further deepening until late this afternoon into tonight across the lower Great Lakes into southeastern Ontario/southwestern Quebec. Trailing this cyclone, a notable cold front is forecast to progress southeastward through the southern Great Plains, and eastward through the mid/lower Mississippi Valley and middle Ohio Valley by late tonight. The front will continue to be preceded by a moistening southerly return flow, which may include surface dew points increasing through the lower/mid 60s F as far north as southern portions of the Great Lakes region, at least initially beneath a remnant plume of elevated mixed-layer air emerging from the high plains. ...Ohio Valley into southeastern Great Plains... Models suggest that thermodynamic profiles will become supportive of sizable conditional and convective instability, with a fairly broad reservoir of CAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg evolving across the southeastern Great Plains through lower Mississippi Valley, as far north as the confluence with the Ohio River by late this afternoon. Farther north, mixed-layer CAPE is likely to increase in excess of 1000 J/kg during the day, within a narrower corridor across/north-northeast of the middle Mississippi Valley, where mid/upper forcing for ascent is likely to initiate intensifying thunderstorm activity by early to mid afternoon. This may include a few supercells posing a risk for large hail and potential for a couple of tornadoes, before convection tends to gradually consolidate and grow upscale, accompanied by increasing risk for damaging wind gusts. This initial activity may be maintained northeastward and eastward through much of the Ohio Valley by late this evening, before tending to weaken while acquiring less unstable inflow. Meanwhile, subsequent initiation of storms is likely southwestward ahead of the cold front, across the lower Ohio Valley/Mid South toward the Ark-La-Tex later this afternoon into this evening. It appears possible that this may coincide with strengthening lower/mid-tropospheric flow accompanying a trailing jet streak. And a period of intensifying discrete supercell development might not be out of the question, before activity tends to grow upscale into one or more organizing clusters. Depending on how quickly this occurs, there may be a conditional risk for a couple of strong tornadoes, before damaging straight line winds, and perhaps brief tornadoes with evolving near-surface meso vortices, becomes the more prominent hazard southeastward into the Gulf Coast states overnight. ...Florida Peninsula vicinity... HREF and NCEP SREF guidance indicates rather high probabilities for thunderstorm development, as weak mid-level troughing overspreads the peninsula today. Beneath modestly cool mid-level temperatures, it appears that boundary-layer moisture will support moderate CAPE, and thermodynamic profiles may become conducive to a few stronger storms with small, melting hail contributing to potential for localized damaging downbursts. ..Kerr/Weinman.. 03/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF SERN IL...IN...WRN AND CENTRAL OH...SERN MO...CNTRL AND ERN AR...KY...TN...NWRN AL...NRN AND CNTRL MS...NRN LA...NERN TX... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm development is likely to become widespread across the Ohio Valley southwestward through the Tennessee and lower Mississippi Valleys this afternoon into tonight. Initially, this activity will pose a risk for large large hail. A few tornadoes are also possible, before damaging wind gusts become the more prominent potential severe hazard this evening into tonight. ...Discussion... To the north of an intense, zonal jet across the southern mid-latitude eastern Pacific, a significant mid-level low is forecast to progress slowly eastward across the northeastern Pacific, toward the Pacific Northwest coast, accompanied by a deep occluded surface cyclone. This has been preceded inland by a series of less prominent perturbations, a couple of which may be consolidating into more notable larger-scale mid-level troughing to the east-northeast of the southern Rockies. Models continue to indicate that this evolving mid-level wave will accelerate into a broadly confluent regime across the Ohio Valley through lower Great Lakes region, between a significant short wave trough digging across Manitoba/Ontario and downstream ridging overspreading the St. Lawrence Valley/Northeast. Models suggest that an associated surface low, likely initially over eastern Iowa at the outset of the period, will continue an east-northeastward migration into and across the Great Lakes, but it may not undergo substantive further deepening until late this afternoon into tonight across the lower Great Lakes into southeastern Ontario/southwestern Quebec. Trailing this cyclone, a notable cold front is forecast to progress southeastward through the southern Great Plains, and eastward through the mid/lower Mississippi Valley and middle Ohio Valley by late tonight. The front will continue to be preceded by a moistening southerly return flow, which may include surface dew points increasing through the lower/mid 60s F as far north as southern portions of the Great Lakes region, at least initially beneath a remnant plume of elevated mixed-layer air emerging from the high plains. ...Ohio Valley into southeastern Great Plains... Models suggest that thermodynamic profiles will become supportive of sizable conditional and convective instability, with a fairly broad reservoir of CAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg evolving across the southeastern Great Plains through lower Mississippi Valley, as far north as the confluence with the Ohio River by late this afternoon. Farther north, mixed-layer CAPE is likely to increase in excess of 1000 J/kg during the day, within a narrower corridor across/north-northeast of the middle Mississippi Valley, where mid/upper forcing for ascent is likely to initiate intensifying thunderstorm activity by early to mid afternoon. This may include a few supercells posing a risk for large hail and potential for a couple of tornadoes, before convection tends to gradually consolidate and grow upscale, accompanied by increasing risk for damaging wind gusts. This initial activity may be maintained northeastward and eastward through much of the Ohio Valley by late this evening, before tending to weaken while acquiring less unstable inflow. Meanwhile, subsequent initiation of storms is likely southwestward ahead of the cold front, across the lower Ohio Valley/Mid South toward the Ark-La-Tex later this afternoon into this evening. It appears possible that this may coincide with strengthening lower/mid-tropospheric flow accompanying a trailing jet streak. And a period of intensifying discrete supercell development might not be out of the question, before activity tends to grow upscale into one or more organizing clusters. Depending on how quickly this occurs, there may be a conditional risk for a couple of strong tornadoes, before damaging straight line winds, and perhaps brief tornadoes with evolving near-surface meso vortices, becomes the more prominent hazard southeastward into the Gulf Coast states overnight. ...Florida Peninsula vicinity... HREF and NCEP SREF guidance indicates rather high probabilities for thunderstorm development, as weak mid-level troughing overspreads the peninsula today. Beneath modestly cool mid-level temperatures, it appears that boundary-layer moisture will support moderate CAPE, and thermodynamic profiles may become conducive to a few stronger storms with small, melting hail contributing to potential for localized damaging downbursts. ..Kerr/Weinman.. 03/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF SERN IL...IN...WRN AND CENTRAL OH...SERN MO...CNTRL AND ERN AR...KY...TN...NWRN AL...NRN AND CNTRL MS...NRN LA...NERN TX... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm development is likely to become widespread across the Ohio Valley southwestward through the Tennessee and lower Mississippi Valleys this afternoon into tonight. Initially, this activity will pose a risk for large large hail. A few tornadoes are also possible, before damaging wind gusts become the more prominent potential severe hazard this evening into tonight. ...Discussion... To the north of an intense, zonal jet across the southern mid-latitude eastern Pacific, a significant mid-level low is forecast to progress slowly eastward across the northeastern Pacific, toward the Pacific Northwest coast, accompanied by a deep occluded surface cyclone. This has been preceded inland by a series of less prominent perturbations, a couple of which may be consolidating into more notable larger-scale mid-level troughing to the east-northeast of the southern Rockies. Models continue to indicate that this evolving mid-level wave will accelerate into a broadly confluent regime across the Ohio Valley through lower Great Lakes region, between a significant short wave trough digging across Manitoba/Ontario and downstream ridging overspreading the St. Lawrence Valley/Northeast. Models suggest that an associated surface low, likely initially over eastern Iowa at the outset of the period, will continue an east-northeastward migration into and across the Great Lakes, but it may not undergo substantive further deepening until late this afternoon into tonight across the lower Great Lakes into southeastern Ontario/southwestern Quebec. Trailing this cyclone, a notable cold front is forecast to progress southeastward through the southern Great Plains, and eastward through the mid/lower Mississippi Valley and middle Ohio Valley by late tonight. The front will continue to be preceded by a moistening southerly return flow, which may include surface dew points increasing through the lower/mid 60s F as far north as southern portions of the Great Lakes region, at least initially beneath a remnant plume of elevated mixed-layer air emerging from the high plains. ...Ohio Valley into southeastern Great Plains... Models suggest that thermodynamic profiles will become supportive of sizable conditional and convective instability, with a fairly broad reservoir of CAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg evolving across the southeastern Great Plains through lower Mississippi Valley, as far north as the confluence with the Ohio River by late this afternoon. Farther north, mixed-layer CAPE is likely to increase in excess of 1000 J/kg during the day, within a narrower corridor across/north-northeast of the middle Mississippi Valley, where mid/upper forcing for ascent is likely to initiate intensifying thunderstorm activity by early to mid afternoon. This may include a few supercells posing a risk for large hail and potential for a couple of tornadoes, before convection tends to gradually consolidate and grow upscale, accompanied by increasing risk for damaging wind gusts. This initial activity may be maintained northeastward and eastward through much of the Ohio Valley by late this evening, before tending to weaken while acquiring less unstable inflow. Meanwhile, subsequent initiation of storms is likely southwestward ahead of the cold front, across the lower Ohio Valley/Mid South toward the Ark-La-Tex later this afternoon into this evening. It appears possible that this may coincide with strengthening lower/mid-tropospheric flow accompanying a trailing jet streak. And a period of intensifying discrete supercell development might not be out of the question, before activity tends to grow upscale into one or more organizing clusters. Depending on how quickly this occurs, there may be a conditional risk for a couple of strong tornadoes, before damaging straight line winds, and perhaps brief tornadoes with evolving near-surface meso vortices, becomes the more prominent hazard southeastward into the Gulf Coast states overnight. ...Florida Peninsula vicinity... HREF and NCEP SREF guidance indicates rather high probabilities for thunderstorm development, as weak mid-level troughing overspreads the peninsula today. Beneath modestly cool mid-level temperatures, it appears that boundary-layer moisture will support moderate CAPE, and thermodynamic profiles may become conducive to a few stronger storms with small, melting hail contributing to potential for localized damaging downbursts. ..Kerr/Weinman.. 03/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF SERN IL...IN...WRN AND CENTRAL OH...SERN MO...CNTRL AND ERN AR...KY...TN...NWRN AL...NRN AND CNTRL MS...NRN LA...NERN TX... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm development is likely to become widespread across the Ohio Valley southwestward through the Tennessee and lower Mississippi Valleys this afternoon into tonight. Initially, this activity will pose a risk for large large hail. A few tornadoes are also possible, before damaging wind gusts become the more prominent potential severe hazard this evening into tonight. ...Discussion... To the north of an intense, zonal jet across the southern mid-latitude eastern Pacific, a significant mid-level low is forecast to progress slowly eastward across the northeastern Pacific, toward the Pacific Northwest coast, accompanied by a deep occluded surface cyclone. This has been preceded inland by a series of less prominent perturbations, a couple of which may be consolidating into more notable larger-scale mid-level troughing to the east-northeast of the southern Rockies. Models continue to indicate that this evolving mid-level wave will accelerate into a broadly confluent regime across the Ohio Valley through lower Great Lakes region, between a significant short wave trough digging across Manitoba/Ontario and downstream ridging overspreading the St. Lawrence Valley/Northeast. Models suggest that an associated surface low, likely initially over eastern Iowa at the outset of the period, will continue an east-northeastward migration into and across the Great Lakes, but it may not undergo substantive further deepening until late this afternoon into tonight across the lower Great Lakes into southeastern Ontario/southwestern Quebec. Trailing this cyclone, a notable cold front is forecast to progress southeastward through the southern Great Plains, and eastward through the mid/lower Mississippi Valley and middle Ohio Valley by late tonight. The front will continue to be preceded by a moistening southerly return flow, which may include surface dew points increasing through the lower/mid 60s F as far north as southern portions of the Great Lakes region, at least initially beneath a remnant plume of elevated mixed-layer air emerging from the high plains. ...Ohio Valley into southeastern Great Plains... Models suggest that thermodynamic profiles will become supportive of sizable conditional and convective instability, with a fairly broad reservoir of CAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg evolving across the southeastern Great Plains through lower Mississippi Valley, as far north as the confluence with the Ohio River by late this afternoon. Farther north, mixed-layer CAPE is likely to increase in excess of 1000 J/kg during the day, within a narrower corridor across/north-northeast of the middle Mississippi Valley, where mid/upper forcing for ascent is likely to initiate intensifying thunderstorm activity by early to mid afternoon. This may include a few supercells posing a risk for large hail and potential for a couple of tornadoes, before convection tends to gradually consolidate and grow upscale, accompanied by increasing risk for damaging wind gusts. This initial activity may be maintained northeastward and eastward through much of the Ohio Valley by late this evening, before tending to weaken while acquiring less unstable inflow. Meanwhile, subsequent initiation of storms is likely southwestward ahead of the cold front, across the lower Ohio Valley/Mid South toward the Ark-La-Tex later this afternoon into this evening. It appears possible that this may coincide with strengthening lower/mid-tropospheric flow accompanying a trailing jet streak. And a period of intensifying discrete supercell development might not be out of the question, before activity tends to grow upscale into one or more organizing clusters. Depending on how quickly this occurs, there may be a conditional risk for a couple of strong tornadoes, before damaging straight line winds, and perhaps brief tornadoes with evolving near-surface meso vortices, becomes the more prominent hazard southeastward into the Gulf Coast states overnight. ...Florida Peninsula vicinity... HREF and NCEP SREF guidance indicates rather high probabilities for thunderstorm development, as weak mid-level troughing overspreads the peninsula today. Beneath modestly cool mid-level temperatures, it appears that boundary-layer moisture will support moderate CAPE, and thermodynamic profiles may become conducive to a few stronger storms with small, melting hail contributing to potential for localized damaging downbursts. ..Kerr/Weinman.. 03/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF SERN IL...IN...WRN AND CENTRAL OH...SERN MO...CNTRL AND ERN AR...KY...TN...NWRN AL...NRN AND CNTRL MS...NRN LA...NERN TX... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm development is likely to become widespread across the Ohio Valley southwestward through the Tennessee and lower Mississippi Valleys this afternoon into tonight. Initially, this activity will pose a risk for large large hail. A few tornadoes are also possible, before damaging wind gusts become the more prominent potential severe hazard this evening into tonight. ...Discussion... To the north of an intense, zonal jet across the southern mid-latitude eastern Pacific, a significant mid-level low is forecast to progress slowly eastward across the northeastern Pacific, toward the Pacific Northwest coast, accompanied by a deep occluded surface cyclone. This has been preceded inland by a series of less prominent perturbations, a couple of which may be consolidating into more notable larger-scale mid-level troughing to the east-northeast of the southern Rockies. Models continue to indicate that this evolving mid-level wave will accelerate into a broadly confluent regime across the Ohio Valley through lower Great Lakes region, between a significant short wave trough digging across Manitoba/Ontario and downstream ridging overspreading the St. Lawrence Valley/Northeast. Models suggest that an associated surface low, likely initially over eastern Iowa at the outset of the period, will continue an east-northeastward migration into and across the Great Lakes, but it may not undergo substantive further deepening until late this afternoon into tonight across the lower Great Lakes into southeastern Ontario/southwestern Quebec. Trailing this cyclone, a notable cold front is forecast to progress southeastward through the southern Great Plains, and eastward through the mid/lower Mississippi Valley and middle Ohio Valley by late tonight. The front will continue to be preceded by a moistening southerly return flow, which may include surface dew points increasing through the lower/mid 60s F as far north as southern portions of the Great Lakes region, at least initially beneath a remnant plume of elevated mixed-layer air emerging from the high plains. ...Ohio Valley into southeastern Great Plains... Models suggest that thermodynamic profiles will become supportive of sizable conditional and convective instability, with a fairly broad reservoir of CAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg evolving across the southeastern Great Plains through lower Mississippi Valley, as far north as the confluence with the Ohio River by late this afternoon. Farther north, mixed-layer CAPE is likely to increase in excess of 1000 J/kg during the day, within a narrower corridor across/north-northeast of the middle Mississippi Valley, where mid/upper forcing for ascent is likely to initiate intensifying thunderstorm activity by early to mid afternoon. This may include a few supercells posing a risk for large hail and potential for a couple of tornadoes, before convection tends to gradually consolidate and grow upscale, accompanied by increasing risk for damaging wind gusts. This initial activity may be maintained northeastward and eastward through much of the Ohio Valley by late this evening, before tending to weaken while acquiring less unstable inflow. Meanwhile, subsequent initiation of storms is likely southwestward ahead of the cold front, across the lower Ohio Valley/Mid South toward the Ark-La-Tex later this afternoon into this evening. It appears possible that this may coincide with strengthening lower/mid-tropospheric flow accompanying a trailing jet streak. And a period of intensifying discrete supercell development might not be out of the question, before activity tends to grow upscale into one or more organizing clusters. Depending on how quickly this occurs, there may be a conditional risk for a couple of strong tornadoes, before damaging straight line winds, and perhaps brief tornadoes with evolving near-surface meso vortices, becomes the more prominent hazard southeastward into the Gulf Coast states overnight. ...Florida Peninsula vicinity... HREF and NCEP SREF guidance indicates rather high probabilities for thunderstorm development, as weak mid-level troughing overspreads the peninsula today. Beneath modestly cool mid-level temperatures, it appears that boundary-layer moisture will support moderate CAPE, and thermodynamic profiles may become conducive to a few stronger storms with small, melting hail contributing to potential for localized damaging downbursts. ..Kerr/Weinman.. 03/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF SERN IL...IN...WRN AND CENTRAL OH...SERN MO...CNTRL AND ERN AR...KY...TN...NWRN AL...NRN AND CNTRL MS...NRN LA...NERN TX... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm development is likely to become widespread across the Ohio Valley southwestward through the Tennessee and lower Mississippi Valleys this afternoon into tonight. Initially, this activity will pose a risk for large large hail. A few tornadoes are also possible, before damaging wind gusts become the more prominent potential severe hazard this evening into tonight. ...Discussion... To the north of an intense, zonal jet across the southern mid-latitude eastern Pacific, a significant mid-level low is forecast to progress slowly eastward across the northeastern Pacific, toward the Pacific Northwest coast, accompanied by a deep occluded surface cyclone. This has been preceded inland by a series of less prominent perturbations, a couple of which may be consolidating into more notable larger-scale mid-level troughing to the east-northeast of the southern Rockies. Models continue to indicate that this evolving mid-level wave will accelerate into a broadly confluent regime across the Ohio Valley through lower Great Lakes region, between a significant short wave trough digging across Manitoba/Ontario and downstream ridging overspreading the St. Lawrence Valley/Northeast. Models suggest that an associated surface low, likely initially over eastern Iowa at the outset of the period, will continue an east-northeastward migration into and across the Great Lakes, but it may not undergo substantive further deepening until late this afternoon into tonight across the lower Great Lakes into southeastern Ontario/southwestern Quebec. Trailing this cyclone, a notable cold front is forecast to progress southeastward through the southern Great Plains, and eastward through the mid/lower Mississippi Valley and middle Ohio Valley by late tonight. The front will continue to be preceded by a moistening southerly return flow, which may include surface dew points increasing through the lower/mid 60s F as far north as southern portions of the Great Lakes region, at least initially beneath a remnant plume of elevated mixed-layer air emerging from the high plains. ...Ohio Valley into southeastern Great Plains... Models suggest that thermodynamic profiles will become supportive of sizable conditional and convective instability, with a fairly broad reservoir of CAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg evolving across the southeastern Great Plains through lower Mississippi Valley, as far north as the confluence with the Ohio River by late this afternoon. Farther north, mixed-layer CAPE is likely to increase in excess of 1000 J/kg during the day, within a narrower corridor across/north-northeast of the middle Mississippi Valley, where mid/upper forcing for ascent is likely to initiate intensifying thunderstorm activity by early to mid afternoon. This may include a few supercells posing a risk for large hail and potential for a couple of tornadoes, before convection tends to gradually consolidate and grow upscale, accompanied by increasing risk for damaging wind gusts. This initial activity may be maintained northeastward and eastward through much of the Ohio Valley by late this evening, before tending to weaken while acquiring less unstable inflow. Meanwhile, subsequent initiation of storms is likely southwestward ahead of the cold front, across the lower Ohio Valley/Mid South toward the Ark-La-Tex later this afternoon into this evening. It appears possible that this may coincide with strengthening lower/mid-tropospheric flow accompanying a trailing jet streak. And a period of intensifying discrete supercell development might not be out of the question, before activity tends to grow upscale into one or more organizing clusters. Depending on how quickly this occurs, there may be a conditional risk for a couple of strong tornadoes, before damaging straight line winds, and perhaps brief tornadoes with evolving near-surface meso vortices, becomes the more prominent hazard southeastward into the Gulf Coast states overnight. ...Florida Peninsula vicinity... HREF and NCEP SREF guidance indicates rather high probabilities for thunderstorm development, as weak mid-level troughing overspreads the peninsula today. Beneath modestly cool mid-level temperatures, it appears that boundary-layer moisture will support moderate CAPE, and thermodynamic profiles may become conducive to a few stronger storms with small, melting hail contributing to potential for localized damaging downbursts. ..Kerr/Weinman.. 03/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF SERN IL...IN...WRN AND CENTRAL OH...SERN MO...CNTRL AND ERN AR...KY...TN...NWRN AL...NRN AND CNTRL MS...NRN LA...NERN TX... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm development is likely to become widespread across the Ohio Valley southwestward through the Tennessee and lower Mississippi Valleys this afternoon into tonight. Initially, this activity will pose a risk for large large hail. A few tornadoes are also possible, before damaging wind gusts become the more prominent potential severe hazard this evening into tonight. ...Discussion... To the north of an intense, zonal jet across the southern mid-latitude eastern Pacific, a significant mid-level low is forecast to progress slowly eastward across the northeastern Pacific, toward the Pacific Northwest coast, accompanied by a deep occluded surface cyclone. This has been preceded inland by a series of less prominent perturbations, a couple of which may be consolidating into more notable larger-scale mid-level troughing to the east-northeast of the southern Rockies. Models continue to indicate that this evolving mid-level wave will accelerate into a broadly confluent regime across the Ohio Valley through lower Great Lakes region, between a significant short wave trough digging across Manitoba/Ontario and downstream ridging overspreading the St. Lawrence Valley/Northeast. Models suggest that an associated surface low, likely initially over eastern Iowa at the outset of the period, will continue an east-northeastward migration into and across the Great Lakes, but it may not undergo substantive further deepening until late this afternoon into tonight across the lower Great Lakes into southeastern Ontario/southwestern Quebec. Trailing this cyclone, a notable cold front is forecast to progress southeastward through the southern Great Plains, and eastward through the mid/lower Mississippi Valley and middle Ohio Valley by late tonight. The front will continue to be preceded by a moistening southerly return flow, which may include surface dew points increasing through the lower/mid 60s F as far north as southern portions of the Great Lakes region, at least initially beneath a remnant plume of elevated mixed-layer air emerging from the high plains. ...Ohio Valley into southeastern Great Plains... Models suggest that thermodynamic profiles will become supportive of sizable conditional and convective instability, with a fairly broad reservoir of CAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg evolving across the southeastern Great Plains through lower Mississippi Valley, as far north as the confluence with the Ohio River by late this afternoon. Farther north, mixed-layer CAPE is likely to increase in excess of 1000 J/kg during the day, within a narrower corridor across/north-northeast of the middle Mississippi Valley, where mid/upper forcing for ascent is likely to initiate intensifying thunderstorm activity by early to mid afternoon. This may include a few supercells posing a risk for large hail and potential for a couple of tornadoes, before convection tends to gradually consolidate and grow upscale, accompanied by increasing risk for damaging wind gusts. This initial activity may be maintained northeastward and eastward through much of the Ohio Valley by late this evening, before tending to weaken while acquiring less unstable inflow. Meanwhile, subsequent initiation of storms is likely southwestward ahead of the cold front, across the lower Ohio Valley/Mid South toward the Ark-La-Tex later this afternoon into this evening. It appears possible that this may coincide with strengthening lower/mid-tropospheric flow accompanying a trailing jet streak. And a period of intensifying discrete supercell development might not be out of the question, before activity tends to grow upscale into one or more organizing clusters. Depending on how quickly this occurs, there may be a conditional risk for a couple of strong tornadoes, before damaging straight line winds, and perhaps brief tornadoes with evolving near-surface meso vortices, becomes the more prominent hazard southeastward into the Gulf Coast states overnight. ...Florida Peninsula vicinity... HREF and NCEP SREF guidance indicates rather high probabilities for thunderstorm development, as weak mid-level troughing overspreads the peninsula today. Beneath modestly cool mid-level temperatures, it appears that boundary-layer moisture will support moderate CAPE, and thermodynamic profiles may become conducive to a few stronger storms with small, melting hail contributing to potential for localized damaging downbursts. ..Kerr/Weinman.. 03/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF SERN IL...IN...WRN AND CENTRAL OH...SERN MO...CNTRL AND ERN AR...KY...TN...NWRN AL...NRN AND CNTRL MS...NRN LA...NERN TX... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm development is likely to become widespread across the Ohio Valley southwestward through the Tennessee and lower Mississippi Valleys this afternoon into tonight. Initially, this activity will pose a risk for large large hail. A few tornadoes are also possible, before damaging wind gusts become the more prominent potential severe hazard this evening into tonight. ...Discussion... To the north of an intense, zonal jet across the southern mid-latitude eastern Pacific, a significant mid-level low is forecast to progress slowly eastward across the northeastern Pacific, toward the Pacific Northwest coast, accompanied by a deep occluded surface cyclone. This has been preceded inland by a series of less prominent perturbations, a couple of which may be consolidating into more notable larger-scale mid-level troughing to the east-northeast of the southern Rockies. Models continue to indicate that this evolving mid-level wave will accelerate into a broadly confluent regime across the Ohio Valley through lower Great Lakes region, between a significant short wave trough digging across Manitoba/Ontario and downstream ridging overspreading the St. Lawrence Valley/Northeast. Models suggest that an associated surface low, likely initially over eastern Iowa at the outset of the period, will continue an east-northeastward migration into and across the Great Lakes, but it may not undergo substantive further deepening until late this afternoon into tonight across the lower Great Lakes into southeastern Ontario/southwestern Quebec. Trailing this cyclone, a notable cold front is forecast to progress southeastward through the southern Great Plains, and eastward through the mid/lower Mississippi Valley and middle Ohio Valley by late tonight. The front will continue to be preceded by a moistening southerly return flow, which may include surface dew points increasing through the lower/mid 60s F as far north as southern portions of the Great Lakes region, at least initially beneath a remnant plume of elevated mixed-layer air emerging from the high plains. ...Ohio Valley into southeastern Great Plains... Models suggest that thermodynamic profiles will become supportive of sizable conditional and convective instability, with a fairly broad reservoir of CAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg evolving across the southeastern Great Plains through lower Mississippi Valley, as far north as the confluence with the Ohio River by late this afternoon. Farther north, mixed-layer CAPE is likely to increase in excess of 1000 J/kg during the day, within a narrower corridor across/north-northeast of the middle Mississippi Valley, where mid/upper forcing for ascent is likely to initiate intensifying thunderstorm activity by early to mid afternoon. This may include a few supercells posing a risk for large hail and potential for a couple of tornadoes, before convection tends to gradually consolidate and grow upscale, accompanied by increasing risk for damaging wind gusts. This initial activity may be maintained northeastward and eastward through much of the Ohio Valley by late this evening, before tending to weaken while acquiring less unstable inflow. Meanwhile, subsequent initiation of storms is likely southwestward ahead of the cold front, across the lower Ohio Valley/Mid South toward the Ark-La-Tex later this afternoon into this evening. It appears possible that this may coincide with strengthening lower/mid-tropospheric flow accompanying a trailing jet streak. And a period of intensifying discrete supercell development might not be out of the question, before activity tends to grow upscale into one or more organizing clusters. Depending on how quickly this occurs, there may be a conditional risk for a couple of strong tornadoes, before damaging straight line winds, and perhaps brief tornadoes with evolving near-surface meso vortices, becomes the more prominent hazard southeastward into the Gulf Coast states overnight. ...Florida Peninsula vicinity... HREF and NCEP SREF guidance indicates rather high probabilities for thunderstorm development, as weak mid-level troughing overspreads the peninsula today. Beneath modestly cool mid-level temperatures, it appears that boundary-layer moisture will support moderate CAPE, and thermodynamic profiles may become conducive to a few stronger storms with small, melting hail contributing to potential for localized damaging downbursts. ..Kerr/Weinman.. 03/30/2025 Read more

WW 0067 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 67 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N JCT TO 40 SW BWD TO 35 SE SEP TO 40 SSE FTW TO 5 NNE GYI. ..LEITMAN..03/30/25 ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 67 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC027-035-085-099-139-145-147-181-193-217-231-257-281-293-307- 309-333-349-397-411-300640- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BELL BOSQUE COLLIN CORYELL ELLIS FALLS FANNIN GRAYSON HAMILTON HILL HUNT KAUFMAN LAMPASAS LIMESTONE MCCULLOCH MCLENNAN MILLS NAVARRO ROCKWALL SAN SABA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0067 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 67 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N JCT TO 40 SW BWD TO 35 SE SEP TO 40 SSE FTW TO 5 NNE GYI. ..LEITMAN..03/30/25 ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 67 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC027-035-085-099-139-145-147-181-193-217-231-257-281-293-307- 309-333-349-397-411-300640- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BELL BOSQUE COLLIN CORYELL ELLIS FALLS FANNIN GRAYSON HAMILTON HILL HUNT KAUFMAN LAMPASAS LIMESTONE MCCULLOCH MCLENNAN MILLS NAVARRO ROCKWALL SAN SABA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0067 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 67 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N JCT TO 40 SW BWD TO 35 SE SEP TO 40 SSE FTW TO 5 NNE GYI. ..LEITMAN..03/30/25 ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 67 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC027-035-085-099-139-145-147-181-193-217-231-257-281-293-307- 309-333-349-397-411-300640- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BELL BOSQUE COLLIN CORYELL ELLIS FALLS FANNIN GRAYSON HAMILTON HILL HUNT KAUFMAN LAMPASAS LIMESTONE MCCULLOCH MCLENNAN MILLS NAVARRO ROCKWALL SAN SABA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0067 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 67 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N JCT TO 40 SW BWD TO 35 SE SEP TO 40 SSE FTW TO 5 NNE GYI. ..LEITMAN..03/30/25 ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 67 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC027-035-085-099-139-145-147-181-193-217-231-257-281-293-307- 309-333-349-397-411-300640- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BELL BOSQUE COLLIN CORYELL ELLIS FALLS FANNIN GRAYSON HAMILTON HILL HUNT KAUFMAN LAMPASAS LIMESTONE MCCULLOCH MCLENNAN MILLS NAVARRO ROCKWALL SAN SABA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0067 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 67 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N JCT TO 40 SW BWD TO 35 SE SEP TO 40 SSE FTW TO 5 NNE GYI. ..LEITMAN..03/30/25 ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 67 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC027-035-085-099-139-145-147-181-193-217-231-257-281-293-307- 309-333-349-397-411-300640- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BELL BOSQUE COLLIN CORYELL ELLIS FALLS FANNIN GRAYSON HAMILTON HILL HUNT KAUFMAN LAMPASAS LIMESTONE MCCULLOCH MCLENNAN MILLS NAVARRO ROCKWALL SAN SABA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0067 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 67 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N JCT TO 40 SW BWD TO 35 SE SEP TO 40 SSE FTW TO 5 NNE GYI. ..LEITMAN..03/30/25 ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 67 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC027-035-085-099-139-145-147-181-193-217-231-257-281-293-307- 309-333-349-397-411-300640- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BELL BOSQUE COLLIN CORYELL ELLIS FALLS FANNIN GRAYSON HAMILTON HILL HUNT KAUFMAN LAMPASAS LIMESTONE MCCULLOCH MCLENNAN MILLS NAVARRO ROCKWALL SAN SABA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 67 SEVERE TSTM TX 300015Z - 300700Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 67 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 715 PM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central and North Texas * Effective this Saturday night and Sunday morning from 715 PM until 200 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase over the next few hours as a shortwave trough moves eastward into the region. Steep mid-level lapse rates will help support moderate to strong buoyancy in the presence of moderate deep-layer vertical shear. These environmental conditions could support severe thunderstorms capable of large to very large hail and strong wind gusts this evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 50 miles south of Brownwood TX to 55 miles north of Dallas TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24030. ...Mosier Read more

WW 0068 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 68 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 NW GYI TO 40 WSW MLC TO 35 SSE CQB TO 20 SSW CQB TO 5 NW OKC TO 20 W PNC. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0291 ..LEITMAN..03/30/25 ATTN...WFO...OUN...TSA... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 68 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC005-013-021-029-035-037-041-063-071-081-083-091-097-101-103- 105-107-109-111-113-115-117-119-121-131-143-145-147-300640- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATOKA BRYAN CHEROKEE COAL CRAIG CREEK DELAWARE HUGHES KAY LINCOLN LOGAN MCINTOSH MAYES MUSKOGEE NOBLE NOWATA OKFUSKEE OKLAHOMA OKMULGEE OSAGE OTTAWA PAWNEE PAYNE PITTSBURG ROGERS TULSA WAGONER WASHINGTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0068 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 68 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 NW GYI TO 40 WSW MLC TO 35 SSE CQB TO 20 SSW CQB TO 5 NW OKC TO 20 W PNC. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0291 ..LEITMAN..03/30/25 ATTN...WFO...OUN...TSA... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 68 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC005-013-021-029-035-037-041-063-071-081-083-091-097-101-103- 105-107-109-111-113-115-117-119-121-131-143-145-147-300640- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATOKA BRYAN CHEROKEE COAL CRAIG CREEK DELAWARE HUGHES KAY LINCOLN LOGAN MCINTOSH MAYES MUSKOGEE NOBLE NOWATA OKFUSKEE OKLAHOMA OKMULGEE OSAGE OTTAWA PAWNEE PAYNE PITTSBURG ROGERS TULSA WAGONER WASHINGTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more