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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 AM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025 Valid 291630Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central/southern Plains into the mid Mississippi Valley, mainly this evening through the overnight hours. This may include an organized thunderstorm cluster across parts of Oklahoma into southeastern Kansas and western Missouri capable of producing very large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes. ...Central/Southern Plains into the Mid Mississippi Valley... Water-vapor imagery shows a lead disturbance moving northeastward across the central Great Plains towards the Upper Midwest, while an upstream disturbance moves from eastern AZ into the southern Great Plains tonight. The primary surface low over western KS this morning is forecast to develop east-northeastward towards southern IA/northern MO by tonight. An attendant cold front will sweep southward across parts of the central/southern Plains through the period, while a dryline mixes eastward over the southern High Plains this afternoon. Surface analysis shows lower 60s dewpoints streaming northward on southerly low-level flow this morning from north TX to the KS/OK border. A substantial cap will likely inhibit robust convective development until late this afternoon or early evening, with the cold front/dryline intersection over western OK a potential location for convective initiation by 23-03Z as large-scale ascent with the trailing shortwave trough overspreads the warm sector. Moderate to strong buoyancy will likely be present across western/northern OK and southern KS, with steep mid-level lapse rates atop upper 50s to mid 60s surface dewpoints. Forecast soundings favor supercell development with activity that develops south of the front across west-central OK. Large to very large hail (potentially up to 1.5-2.5 inches in diameter) may accompany these storms early in their convective life cycle. Despite increasing CINH during the evening, lower 60s dewpoints in place with 500-mb temperatures around -15 deg C may aid the development of a tornado risk from central into northeast OK as storms mature and eventually grow upscale. Severe gusts will probably become more prevalent with time as this cluster moves east-northeast into parts of northeast OK and eventually into MO later tonight, perhaps with the wind threat slowly diminishing late. Farther south, a conditional severe threat exists south of the Red River from north TX southwestward into parts of the Concho Valley. It appears the airmass will remain capped during the day in the vicinity of the dryline, with storm development likely delayed until late evening into the overnight per recent model guidance. Very steep 700-500 mb lapse rates, strong deep-layer shear magnitudes (50 kt effective shear), and 2000-3000 J/kg MUCAPE will support a severe risk with any sustained storms. Models vary between very isolated coverage and scattered storm coverage, especially over parts of central into north TX. Given consistency in some model guidance (e.g., HRRR model run to run, GFS, ECMWF) showing some convective signal, have opted to increase hail probabilities to level-2 Slight Risk overnight. Large to very large hail is possible with the stronger storms (1 to 2.5 inches in diameter). ...Louisiana/Mississippi... A remnant MCV will continue to move northeastward this afternoon across the lower MS Valley and Mid-South. Although deep-layer shear is expected to remain fairly weak, sufficient low-level shear should be present to support some updraft organization and transient rotation with the stronger storms. Cells moving northeastward and inland over the central Gulf Coast may pose a threat for a brief tornado, as well as a localized risk for damaging gusts. ..Smith/Dean.. 03/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 AM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025 Valid 291630Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central/southern Plains into the mid Mississippi Valley, mainly this evening through the overnight hours. This may include an organized thunderstorm cluster across parts of Oklahoma into southeastern Kansas and western Missouri capable of producing very large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes. ...Central/Southern Plains into the Mid Mississippi Valley... Water-vapor imagery shows a lead disturbance moving northeastward across the central Great Plains towards the Upper Midwest, while an upstream disturbance moves from eastern AZ into the southern Great Plains tonight. The primary surface low over western KS this morning is forecast to develop east-northeastward towards southern IA/northern MO by tonight. An attendant cold front will sweep southward across parts of the central/southern Plains through the period, while a dryline mixes eastward over the southern High Plains this afternoon. Surface analysis shows lower 60s dewpoints streaming northward on southerly low-level flow this morning from north TX to the KS/OK border. A substantial cap will likely inhibit robust convective development until late this afternoon or early evening, with the cold front/dryline intersection over western OK a potential location for convective initiation by 23-03Z as large-scale ascent with the trailing shortwave trough overspreads the warm sector. Moderate to strong buoyancy will likely be present across western/northern OK and southern KS, with steep mid-level lapse rates atop upper 50s to mid 60s surface dewpoints. Forecast soundings favor supercell development with activity that develops south of the front across west-central OK. Large to very large hail (potentially up to 1.5-2.5 inches in diameter) may accompany these storms early in their convective life cycle. Despite increasing CINH during the evening, lower 60s dewpoints in place with 500-mb temperatures around -15 deg C may aid the development of a tornado risk from central into northeast OK as storms mature and eventually grow upscale. Severe gusts will probably become more prevalent with time as this cluster moves east-northeast into parts of northeast OK and eventually into MO later tonight, perhaps with the wind threat slowly diminishing late. Farther south, a conditional severe threat exists south of the Red River from north TX southwestward into parts of the Concho Valley. It appears the airmass will remain capped during the day in the vicinity of the dryline, with storm development likely delayed until late evening into the overnight per recent model guidance. Very steep 700-500 mb lapse rates, strong deep-layer shear magnitudes (50 kt effective shear), and 2000-3000 J/kg MUCAPE will support a severe risk with any sustained storms. Models vary between very isolated coverage and scattered storm coverage, especially over parts of central into north TX. Given consistency in some model guidance (e.g., HRRR model run to run, GFS, ECMWF) showing some convective signal, have opted to increase hail probabilities to level-2 Slight Risk overnight. Large to very large hail is possible with the stronger storms (1 to 2.5 inches in diameter). ...Louisiana/Mississippi... A remnant MCV will continue to move northeastward this afternoon across the lower MS Valley and Mid-South. Although deep-layer shear is expected to remain fairly weak, sufficient low-level shear should be present to support some updraft organization and transient rotation with the stronger storms. Cells moving northeastward and inland over the central Gulf Coast may pose a threat for a brief tornado, as well as a localized risk for damaging gusts. ..Smith/Dean.. 03/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 AM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025 Valid 291630Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central/southern Plains into the mid Mississippi Valley, mainly this evening through the overnight hours. This may include an organized thunderstorm cluster across parts of Oklahoma into southeastern Kansas and western Missouri capable of producing very large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes. ...Central/Southern Plains into the Mid Mississippi Valley... Water-vapor imagery shows a lead disturbance moving northeastward across the central Great Plains towards the Upper Midwest, while an upstream disturbance moves from eastern AZ into the southern Great Plains tonight. The primary surface low over western KS this morning is forecast to develop east-northeastward towards southern IA/northern MO by tonight. An attendant cold front will sweep southward across parts of the central/southern Plains through the period, while a dryline mixes eastward over the southern High Plains this afternoon. Surface analysis shows lower 60s dewpoints streaming northward on southerly low-level flow this morning from north TX to the KS/OK border. A substantial cap will likely inhibit robust convective development until late this afternoon or early evening, with the cold front/dryline intersection over western OK a potential location for convective initiation by 23-03Z as large-scale ascent with the trailing shortwave trough overspreads the warm sector. Moderate to strong buoyancy will likely be present across western/northern OK and southern KS, with steep mid-level lapse rates atop upper 50s to mid 60s surface dewpoints. Forecast soundings favor supercell development with activity that develops south of the front across west-central OK. Large to very large hail (potentially up to 1.5-2.5 inches in diameter) may accompany these storms early in their convective life cycle. Despite increasing CINH during the evening, lower 60s dewpoints in place with 500-mb temperatures around -15 deg C may aid the development of a tornado risk from central into northeast OK as storms mature and eventually grow upscale. Severe gusts will probably become more prevalent with time as this cluster moves east-northeast into parts of northeast OK and eventually into MO later tonight, perhaps with the wind threat slowly diminishing late. Farther south, a conditional severe threat exists south of the Red River from north TX southwestward into parts of the Concho Valley. It appears the airmass will remain capped during the day in the vicinity of the dryline, with storm development likely delayed until late evening into the overnight per recent model guidance. Very steep 700-500 mb lapse rates, strong deep-layer shear magnitudes (50 kt effective shear), and 2000-3000 J/kg MUCAPE will support a severe risk with any sustained storms. Models vary between very isolated coverage and scattered storm coverage, especially over parts of central into north TX. Given consistency in some model guidance (e.g., HRRR model run to run, GFS, ECMWF) showing some convective signal, have opted to increase hail probabilities to level-2 Slight Risk overnight. Large to very large hail is possible with the stronger storms (1 to 2.5 inches in diameter). ...Louisiana/Mississippi... A remnant MCV will continue to move northeastward this afternoon across the lower MS Valley and Mid-South. Although deep-layer shear is expected to remain fairly weak, sufficient low-level shear should be present to support some updraft organization and transient rotation with the stronger storms. Cells moving northeastward and inland over the central Gulf Coast may pose a threat for a brief tornado, as well as a localized risk for damaging gusts. ..Smith/Dean.. 03/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 AM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025 Valid 291630Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central/southern Plains into the mid Mississippi Valley, mainly this evening through the overnight hours. This may include an organized thunderstorm cluster across parts of Oklahoma into southeastern Kansas and western Missouri capable of producing very large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes. ...Central/Southern Plains into the Mid Mississippi Valley... Water-vapor imagery shows a lead disturbance moving northeastward across the central Great Plains towards the Upper Midwest, while an upstream disturbance moves from eastern AZ into the southern Great Plains tonight. The primary surface low over western KS this morning is forecast to develop east-northeastward towards southern IA/northern MO by tonight. An attendant cold front will sweep southward across parts of the central/southern Plains through the period, while a dryline mixes eastward over the southern High Plains this afternoon. Surface analysis shows lower 60s dewpoints streaming northward on southerly low-level flow this morning from north TX to the KS/OK border. A substantial cap will likely inhibit robust convective development until late this afternoon or early evening, with the cold front/dryline intersection over western OK a potential location for convective initiation by 23-03Z as large-scale ascent with the trailing shortwave trough overspreads the warm sector. Moderate to strong buoyancy will likely be present across western/northern OK and southern KS, with steep mid-level lapse rates atop upper 50s to mid 60s surface dewpoints. Forecast soundings favor supercell development with activity that develops south of the front across west-central OK. Large to very large hail (potentially up to 1.5-2.5 inches in diameter) may accompany these storms early in their convective life cycle. Despite increasing CINH during the evening, lower 60s dewpoints in place with 500-mb temperatures around -15 deg C may aid the development of a tornado risk from central into northeast OK as storms mature and eventually grow upscale. Severe gusts will probably become more prevalent with time as this cluster moves east-northeast into parts of northeast OK and eventually into MO later tonight, perhaps with the wind threat slowly diminishing late. Farther south, a conditional severe threat exists south of the Red River from north TX southwestward into parts of the Concho Valley. It appears the airmass will remain capped during the day in the vicinity of the dryline, with storm development likely delayed until late evening into the overnight per recent model guidance. Very steep 700-500 mb lapse rates, strong deep-layer shear magnitudes (50 kt effective shear), and 2000-3000 J/kg MUCAPE will support a severe risk with any sustained storms. Models vary between very isolated coverage and scattered storm coverage, especially over parts of central into north TX. Given consistency in some model guidance (e.g., HRRR model run to run, GFS, ECMWF) showing some convective signal, have opted to increase hail probabilities to level-2 Slight Risk overnight. Large to very large hail is possible with the stronger storms (1 to 2.5 inches in diameter). ...Louisiana/Mississippi... A remnant MCV will continue to move northeastward this afternoon across the lower MS Valley and Mid-South. Although deep-layer shear is expected to remain fairly weak, sufficient low-level shear should be present to support some updraft organization and transient rotation with the stronger storms. Cells moving northeastward and inland over the central Gulf Coast may pose a threat for a brief tornado, as well as a localized risk for damaging gusts. ..Smith/Dean.. 03/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 AM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025 Valid 291300Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms should occur across parts of the central/southern Plains into the mid Mississippi Valley, mainly this evening through the overnight hours. This may include an organized thunderstorm cluster across parts of northern Oklahoma into southeastern Kansas and western Missouri capable of producing very large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes. ...Central/Southern Plains into the Mid Mississippi Valley... Two mid-level shortwave troughs will impact the central/southern Plains today, with the leading low-amplitude perturbation expected to move quickly northeastward from the central High Plains to the upper MS Valley by this evening. The trailing feature will advance from northern Mexico and the Southwest across the southern High Plains through the afternoon/evening, eventually reaching the Ozarks/mid MO Valley by the end of the period. The primary surface low over western KS this morning is forecast to develop east-northeastward towards southern IA/northern MO by tonight. An attendant cold front will sweep southward across parts of the central/southern Plains through the period, while a dryline mixes eastward over the southern High Plains this afternoon. Low-level moisture is expected to continue streaming northward over the central/southern Plains ahead of the cold front and dryline. A substantial cap will likely inhibit robust convective development until late this afternoon or early evening, with the cold front/dryline intersection over western OK a potential location for convective initiation by 23-03Z as large-scale ascent with the trailing shortwave trough overspreads the warm sector. Moderate to strong MUCAPE will likely be present across western/northern OK and southern KS, with steep mid-level lapse rates atop upper 50s to mid 60s surface dewpoints. Sufficiently strong deep-layer shear is also anticipated, which should support supercells initially, with an associated threat for large to very large hail (potentially up to 1.5-2.5 inches in diameter). A brief window may also exist in the early to mid evening for a tornado or two with any sustained, surface-based supercell, as 0-1 km SRH increases in tandem with a strengthening southerly low-level jet. Otherwise, a fairly quick transition to a more linear/cluster mode and severe/damaging wind threat is expected along or just ahead of the front late this evening and overnight, as robust convection spreads northeastward across the Ozarks and mid MS Valley before eventually weakening by early Sunday morning. The severe threat across southern OK into north/central TX ahead of the front/dryline appears more conditional, as the better forcing aloft will tend to remain farther north. Even so, given an otherwise favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment, large hail and damaging winds will likely occur if any thunderstorms can initiate and be sustained this evening/overnight. The chance of sustained development still appears fairly low given latest guidance trends, which supports maintaining the Marginal Risk for the conditional severe threat with this update. ...Louisiana/Mississippi... A remnant MCV will continue to move northeastward today across the lower MS Valley and Mid-South. Modestly enhanced low-level southerly flow (reference 12Z LCH sounding) should aid in the northward transport of additional rich low-level moisture into parts of LA and southern MS through the day. While deep-layer shear is expected to remain fairly weak, sufficient low-level shear should be present to support some updraft organization/rotation. Cells moving northeastward and inland over southern LA may pose a threat for a brief tornado or two as the boundary layer gradually destabilizes with filtered daytime heating. Some guidance also suggests that one or more loosely organized clusters may also have a threat for isolated damaging winds this afternoon and early evening. Poor lapse rates aloft, weak instability, and modest deep-layer shear should all act to keep the overall severe threat isolated/marginal. ..Gleason/Leitman.. 03/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 AM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025 Valid 291300Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms should occur across parts of the central/southern Plains into the mid Mississippi Valley, mainly this evening through the overnight hours. This may include an organized thunderstorm cluster across parts of northern Oklahoma into southeastern Kansas and western Missouri capable of producing very large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes. ...Central/Southern Plains into the Mid Mississippi Valley... Two mid-level shortwave troughs will impact the central/southern Plains today, with the leading low-amplitude perturbation expected to move quickly northeastward from the central High Plains to the upper MS Valley by this evening. The trailing feature will advance from northern Mexico and the Southwest across the southern High Plains through the afternoon/evening, eventually reaching the Ozarks/mid MO Valley by the end of the period. The primary surface low over western KS this morning is forecast to develop east-northeastward towards southern IA/northern MO by tonight. An attendant cold front will sweep southward across parts of the central/southern Plains through the period, while a dryline mixes eastward over the southern High Plains this afternoon. Low-level moisture is expected to continue streaming northward over the central/southern Plains ahead of the cold front and dryline. A substantial cap will likely inhibit robust convective development until late this afternoon or early evening, with the cold front/dryline intersection over western OK a potential location for convective initiation by 23-03Z as large-scale ascent with the trailing shortwave trough overspreads the warm sector. Moderate to strong MUCAPE will likely be present across western/northern OK and southern KS, with steep mid-level lapse rates atop upper 50s to mid 60s surface dewpoints. Sufficiently strong deep-layer shear is also anticipated, which should support supercells initially, with an associated threat for large to very large hail (potentially up to 1.5-2.5 inches in diameter). A brief window may also exist in the early to mid evening for a tornado or two with any sustained, surface-based supercell, as 0-1 km SRH increases in tandem with a strengthening southerly low-level jet. Otherwise, a fairly quick transition to a more linear/cluster mode and severe/damaging wind threat is expected along or just ahead of the front late this evening and overnight, as robust convection spreads northeastward across the Ozarks and mid MS Valley before eventually weakening by early Sunday morning. The severe threat across southern OK into north/central TX ahead of the front/dryline appears more conditional, as the better forcing aloft will tend to remain farther north. Even so, given an otherwise favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment, large hail and damaging winds will likely occur if any thunderstorms can initiate and be sustained this evening/overnight. The chance of sustained development still appears fairly low given latest guidance trends, which supports maintaining the Marginal Risk for the conditional severe threat with this update. ...Louisiana/Mississippi... A remnant MCV will continue to move northeastward today across the lower MS Valley and Mid-South. Modestly enhanced low-level southerly flow (reference 12Z LCH sounding) should aid in the northward transport of additional rich low-level moisture into parts of LA and southern MS through the day. While deep-layer shear is expected to remain fairly weak, sufficient low-level shear should be present to support some updraft organization/rotation. Cells moving northeastward and inland over southern LA may pose a threat for a brief tornado or two as the boundary layer gradually destabilizes with filtered daytime heating. Some guidance also suggests that one or more loosely organized clusters may also have a threat for isolated damaging winds this afternoon and early evening. Poor lapse rates aloft, weak instability, and modest deep-layer shear should all act to keep the overall severe threat isolated/marginal. ..Gleason/Leitman.. 03/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 AM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025 Valid 291300Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms should occur across parts of the central/southern Plains into the mid Mississippi Valley, mainly this evening through the overnight hours. This may include an organized thunderstorm cluster across parts of northern Oklahoma into southeastern Kansas and western Missouri capable of producing very large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes. ...Central/Southern Plains into the Mid Mississippi Valley... Two mid-level shortwave troughs will impact the central/southern Plains today, with the leading low-amplitude perturbation expected to move quickly northeastward from the central High Plains to the upper MS Valley by this evening. The trailing feature will advance from northern Mexico and the Southwest across the southern High Plains through the afternoon/evening, eventually reaching the Ozarks/mid MO Valley by the end of the period. The primary surface low over western KS this morning is forecast to develop east-northeastward towards southern IA/northern MO by tonight. An attendant cold front will sweep southward across parts of the central/southern Plains through the period, while a dryline mixes eastward over the southern High Plains this afternoon. Low-level moisture is expected to continue streaming northward over the central/southern Plains ahead of the cold front and dryline. A substantial cap will likely inhibit robust convective development until late this afternoon or early evening, with the cold front/dryline intersection over western OK a potential location for convective initiation by 23-03Z as large-scale ascent with the trailing shortwave trough overspreads the warm sector. Moderate to strong MUCAPE will likely be present across western/northern OK and southern KS, with steep mid-level lapse rates atop upper 50s to mid 60s surface dewpoints. Sufficiently strong deep-layer shear is also anticipated, which should support supercells initially, with an associated threat for large to very large hail (potentially up to 1.5-2.5 inches in diameter). A brief window may also exist in the early to mid evening for a tornado or two with any sustained, surface-based supercell, as 0-1 km SRH increases in tandem with a strengthening southerly low-level jet. Otherwise, a fairly quick transition to a more linear/cluster mode and severe/damaging wind threat is expected along or just ahead of the front late this evening and overnight, as robust convection spreads northeastward across the Ozarks and mid MS Valley before eventually weakening by early Sunday morning. The severe threat across southern OK into north/central TX ahead of the front/dryline appears more conditional, as the better forcing aloft will tend to remain farther north. Even so, given an otherwise favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment, large hail and damaging winds will likely occur if any thunderstorms can initiate and be sustained this evening/overnight. The chance of sustained development still appears fairly low given latest guidance trends, which supports maintaining the Marginal Risk for the conditional severe threat with this update. ...Louisiana/Mississippi... A remnant MCV will continue to move northeastward today across the lower MS Valley and Mid-South. Modestly enhanced low-level southerly flow (reference 12Z LCH sounding) should aid in the northward transport of additional rich low-level moisture into parts of LA and southern MS through the day. While deep-layer shear is expected to remain fairly weak, sufficient low-level shear should be present to support some updraft organization/rotation. Cells moving northeastward and inland over southern LA may pose a threat for a brief tornado or two as the boundary layer gradually destabilizes with filtered daytime heating. Some guidance also suggests that one or more loosely organized clusters may also have a threat for isolated damaging winds this afternoon and early evening. Poor lapse rates aloft, weak instability, and modest deep-layer shear should all act to keep the overall severe threat isolated/marginal. ..Gleason/Leitman.. 03/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 AM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025 Valid 291300Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms should occur across parts of the central/southern Plains into the mid Mississippi Valley, mainly this evening through the overnight hours. This may include an organized thunderstorm cluster across parts of northern Oklahoma into southeastern Kansas and western Missouri capable of producing very large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes. ...Central/Southern Plains into the Mid Mississippi Valley... Two mid-level shortwave troughs will impact the central/southern Plains today, with the leading low-amplitude perturbation expected to move quickly northeastward from the central High Plains to the upper MS Valley by this evening. The trailing feature will advance from northern Mexico and the Southwest across the southern High Plains through the afternoon/evening, eventually reaching the Ozarks/mid MO Valley by the end of the period. The primary surface low over western KS this morning is forecast to develop east-northeastward towards southern IA/northern MO by tonight. An attendant cold front will sweep southward across parts of the central/southern Plains through the period, while a dryline mixes eastward over the southern High Plains this afternoon. Low-level moisture is expected to continue streaming northward over the central/southern Plains ahead of the cold front and dryline. A substantial cap will likely inhibit robust convective development until late this afternoon or early evening, with the cold front/dryline intersection over western OK a potential location for convective initiation by 23-03Z as large-scale ascent with the trailing shortwave trough overspreads the warm sector. Moderate to strong MUCAPE will likely be present across western/northern OK and southern KS, with steep mid-level lapse rates atop upper 50s to mid 60s surface dewpoints. Sufficiently strong deep-layer shear is also anticipated, which should support supercells initially, with an associated threat for large to very large hail (potentially up to 1.5-2.5 inches in diameter). A brief window may also exist in the early to mid evening for a tornado or two with any sustained, surface-based supercell, as 0-1 km SRH increases in tandem with a strengthening southerly low-level jet. Otherwise, a fairly quick transition to a more linear/cluster mode and severe/damaging wind threat is expected along or just ahead of the front late this evening and overnight, as robust convection spreads northeastward across the Ozarks and mid MS Valley before eventually weakening by early Sunday morning. The severe threat across southern OK into north/central TX ahead of the front/dryline appears more conditional, as the better forcing aloft will tend to remain farther north. Even so, given an otherwise favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment, large hail and damaging winds will likely occur if any thunderstorms can initiate and be sustained this evening/overnight. The chance of sustained development still appears fairly low given latest guidance trends, which supports maintaining the Marginal Risk for the conditional severe threat with this update. ...Louisiana/Mississippi... A remnant MCV will continue to move northeastward today across the lower MS Valley and Mid-South. Modestly enhanced low-level southerly flow (reference 12Z LCH sounding) should aid in the northward transport of additional rich low-level moisture into parts of LA and southern MS through the day. While deep-layer shear is expected to remain fairly weak, sufficient low-level shear should be present to support some updraft organization/rotation. Cells moving northeastward and inland over southern LA may pose a threat for a brief tornado or two as the boundary layer gradually destabilizes with filtered daytime heating. Some guidance also suggests that one or more loosely organized clusters may also have a threat for isolated damaging winds this afternoon and early evening. Poor lapse rates aloft, weak instability, and modest deep-layer shear should all act to keep the overall severe threat isolated/marginal. ..Gleason/Leitman.. 03/29/2025 Read more

MD 0281 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NY INTO VT AND NH
Mesoscale Discussion 0281 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025 Areas affected...portions of northern NY into VT and NH Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation Valid 290554Z - 291200Z SUMMARY...Snow and freezing rain will increase over the next few hours hours across parts of northern New York into central/southern Vermont and New Hampshire. Mixed wintry precipitation is expected to persist into the early morning hours. DISCUSSION...Light to moderate snow is occurring over far northern NY into northern VT/NH tonight. Precipitation is expected to shift south and east over the next few hours within a band of strong 850-700 mb frontogenesis, and as a surface front sags southward, allowing a shallow layer of sub-freezing near-surface temperatures to filter across the MCD area. Warm, moist advection atop the surface front within this zone of stronger ascent will support continued development of snow and freezing rain into the morning hours. Freezing rain rates may approach 0.02 inches per hour, though snowfall rates are generally expected to remain less than an inch per hour. ..Leitman.. 03/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BTV...ALY...BUF... LAT...LON 44007118 43447126 43217143 42987154 42887198 42927240 43097308 43257391 43567468 44497564 44737549 44817428 44547231 44247154 44007118 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0402 AM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025 Valid 011200Z - 061200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models appear to be in fairly good agreement through much of the medium-range period, with respect to large-scale pattern evolution/placement of the main synoptic-scale features. One primary difference between the GFS and ECMWF at this time is that the EC is more highly amplified with the upper pattern through the period, and thus -- in general -- depicting stronger surface features and greater flow aloft/wind shear. One result of the higher amplitude of the ECMWF manifests Day 4/Tuesday April 1. As the eastern U.S. trough moves off the Atlantic Coast, and the cold front stalls over the northern Gulf of America early, northward return of this boundary as a warm front is forecast over the southern and eventually the central Plains. Central High Plains cyclogenesis is expected along this front as it shifts northward. However, given the more amplified nature of western troughing within the ECMWF, a much stronger surface cyclone is progged by the EC as compared to the GFS (984 mb vs. 991 mb respectively). The result is much stronger low-level theta-e advection across the central/southern Plains depicted by the EC, driving a much more rapid northward advance of the warm front. Both models suggest after-dark convective development, but where the GFS depicts weaker, elevated CAPE across Kansas, the EC's more robust, potentially near surface-based CAPE suggests greater, more widespread severe potential than the GFS. At this time, a small 15% area will be introduced, centered over the mid Missouri Valley area, mainly for the potential for hail with stronger storms. Later refinements of the risk area will likely be required. Day 5/Wednesday, a widespread, potentially substantial severe event remains apparent, and with greater agreement within the models with respect to the upper trough advance and associated positioning of the surface low/cold front, greater confidence with respect to the degree of risk exists. While a very similar 15% risk area will be depicted as in yesterday's outlook, a 30% area is being introduced from Arkansas northeastward to the mid Ohio Valley. It appears that the environment will become conducive for supercells, with very large hail, damaging winds, and strong tornadoes all possible during the afternoon and evening hours. From Day 6 onward, the cold front will continue its eastward advance across the Ohio Valley and into/across the Northeast/New England. However, much slower southward progression of the cold front is expected, with an eventual drift northward as a warm front that then lingers/oscillates across the Ohio Valley/Mid South/central and southern Plains through the end of the period. This will occur as a slow-moving trough moves into the West, and eventually evolves into a cut-off low. While weak disturbances eject eastward through southwesterly flow aloft across the central U.S. -- each of which may bring rounds of convection/severe potential in the day 6-8 time frame, narrowing down specific/greater areas of potential is difficult at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0402 AM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025 Valid 011200Z - 061200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models appear to be in fairly good agreement through much of the medium-range period, with respect to large-scale pattern evolution/placement of the main synoptic-scale features. One primary difference between the GFS and ECMWF at this time is that the EC is more highly amplified with the upper pattern through the period, and thus -- in general -- depicting stronger surface features and greater flow aloft/wind shear. One result of the higher amplitude of the ECMWF manifests Day 4/Tuesday April 1. As the eastern U.S. trough moves off the Atlantic Coast, and the cold front stalls over the northern Gulf of America early, northward return of this boundary as a warm front is forecast over the southern and eventually the central Plains. Central High Plains cyclogenesis is expected along this front as it shifts northward. However, given the more amplified nature of western troughing within the ECMWF, a much stronger surface cyclone is progged by the EC as compared to the GFS (984 mb vs. 991 mb respectively). The result is much stronger low-level theta-e advection across the central/southern Plains depicted by the EC, driving a much more rapid northward advance of the warm front. Both models suggest after-dark convective development, but where the GFS depicts weaker, elevated CAPE across Kansas, the EC's more robust, potentially near surface-based CAPE suggests greater, more widespread severe potential than the GFS. At this time, a small 15% area will be introduced, centered over the mid Missouri Valley area, mainly for the potential for hail with stronger storms. Later refinements of the risk area will likely be required. Day 5/Wednesday, a widespread, potentially substantial severe event remains apparent, and with greater agreement within the models with respect to the upper trough advance and associated positioning of the surface low/cold front, greater confidence with respect to the degree of risk exists. While a very similar 15% risk area will be depicted as in yesterday's outlook, a 30% area is being introduced from Arkansas northeastward to the mid Ohio Valley. It appears that the environment will become conducive for supercells, with very large hail, damaging winds, and strong tornadoes all possible during the afternoon and evening hours. From Day 6 onward, the cold front will continue its eastward advance across the Ohio Valley and into/across the Northeast/New England. However, much slower southward progression of the cold front is expected, with an eventual drift northward as a warm front that then lingers/oscillates across the Ohio Valley/Mid South/central and southern Plains through the end of the period. This will occur as a slow-moving trough moves into the West, and eventually evolves into a cut-off low. While weak disturbances eject eastward through southwesterly flow aloft across the central U.S. -- each of which may bring rounds of convection/severe potential in the day 6-8 time frame, narrowing down specific/greater areas of potential is difficult at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0402 AM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025 Valid 011200Z - 061200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models appear to be in fairly good agreement through much of the medium-range period, with respect to large-scale pattern evolution/placement of the main synoptic-scale features. One primary difference between the GFS and ECMWF at this time is that the EC is more highly amplified with the upper pattern through the period, and thus -- in general -- depicting stronger surface features and greater flow aloft/wind shear. One result of the higher amplitude of the ECMWF manifests Day 4/Tuesday April 1. As the eastern U.S. trough moves off the Atlantic Coast, and the cold front stalls over the northern Gulf of America early, northward return of this boundary as a warm front is forecast over the southern and eventually the central Plains. Central High Plains cyclogenesis is expected along this front as it shifts northward. However, given the more amplified nature of western troughing within the ECMWF, a much stronger surface cyclone is progged by the EC as compared to the GFS (984 mb vs. 991 mb respectively). The result is much stronger low-level theta-e advection across the central/southern Plains depicted by the EC, driving a much more rapid northward advance of the warm front. Both models suggest after-dark convective development, but where the GFS depicts weaker, elevated CAPE across Kansas, the EC's more robust, potentially near surface-based CAPE suggests greater, more widespread severe potential than the GFS. At this time, a small 15% area will be introduced, centered over the mid Missouri Valley area, mainly for the potential for hail with stronger storms. Later refinements of the risk area will likely be required. Day 5/Wednesday, a widespread, potentially substantial severe event remains apparent, and with greater agreement within the models with respect to the upper trough advance and associated positioning of the surface low/cold front, greater confidence with respect to the degree of risk exists. While a very similar 15% risk area will be depicted as in yesterday's outlook, a 30% area is being introduced from Arkansas northeastward to the mid Ohio Valley. It appears that the environment will become conducive for supercells, with very large hail, damaging winds, and strong tornadoes all possible during the afternoon and evening hours. From Day 6 onward, the cold front will continue its eastward advance across the Ohio Valley and into/across the Northeast/New England. However, much slower southward progression of the cold front is expected, with an eventual drift northward as a warm front that then lingers/oscillates across the Ohio Valley/Mid South/central and southern Plains through the end of the period. This will occur as a slow-moving trough moves into the West, and eventually evolves into a cut-off low. While weak disturbances eject eastward through southwesterly flow aloft across the central U.S. -- each of which may bring rounds of convection/severe potential in the day 6-8 time frame, narrowing down specific/greater areas of potential is difficult at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0402 AM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025 Valid 011200Z - 061200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models appear to be in fairly good agreement through much of the medium-range period, with respect to large-scale pattern evolution/placement of the main synoptic-scale features. One primary difference between the GFS and ECMWF at this time is that the EC is more highly amplified with the upper pattern through the period, and thus -- in general -- depicting stronger surface features and greater flow aloft/wind shear. One result of the higher amplitude of the ECMWF manifests Day 4/Tuesday April 1. As the eastern U.S. trough moves off the Atlantic Coast, and the cold front stalls over the northern Gulf of America early, northward return of this boundary as a warm front is forecast over the southern and eventually the central Plains. Central High Plains cyclogenesis is expected along this front as it shifts northward. However, given the more amplified nature of western troughing within the ECMWF, a much stronger surface cyclone is progged by the EC as compared to the GFS (984 mb vs. 991 mb respectively). The result is much stronger low-level theta-e advection across the central/southern Plains depicted by the EC, driving a much more rapid northward advance of the warm front. Both models suggest after-dark convective development, but where the GFS depicts weaker, elevated CAPE across Kansas, the EC's more robust, potentially near surface-based CAPE suggests greater, more widespread severe potential than the GFS. At this time, a small 15% area will be introduced, centered over the mid Missouri Valley area, mainly for the potential for hail with stronger storms. Later refinements of the risk area will likely be required. Day 5/Wednesday, a widespread, potentially substantial severe event remains apparent, and with greater agreement within the models with respect to the upper trough advance and associated positioning of the surface low/cold front, greater confidence with respect to the degree of risk exists. While a very similar 15% risk area will be depicted as in yesterday's outlook, a 30% area is being introduced from Arkansas northeastward to the mid Ohio Valley. It appears that the environment will become conducive for supercells, with very large hail, damaging winds, and strong tornadoes all possible during the afternoon and evening hours. From Day 6 onward, the cold front will continue its eastward advance across the Ohio Valley and into/across the Northeast/New England. However, much slower southward progression of the cold front is expected, with an eventual drift northward as a warm front that then lingers/oscillates across the Ohio Valley/Mid South/central and southern Plains through the end of the period. This will occur as a slow-moving trough moves into the West, and eventually evolves into a cut-off low. While weak disturbances eject eastward through southwesterly flow aloft across the central U.S. -- each of which may bring rounds of convection/severe potential in the day 6-8 time frame, narrowing down specific/greater areas of potential is difficult at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0402 AM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025 Valid 011200Z - 061200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models appear to be in fairly good agreement through much of the medium-range period, with respect to large-scale pattern evolution/placement of the main synoptic-scale features. One primary difference between the GFS and ECMWF at this time is that the EC is more highly amplified with the upper pattern through the period, and thus -- in general -- depicting stronger surface features and greater flow aloft/wind shear. One result of the higher amplitude of the ECMWF manifests Day 4/Tuesday April 1. As the eastern U.S. trough moves off the Atlantic Coast, and the cold front stalls over the northern Gulf of America early, northward return of this boundary as a warm front is forecast over the southern and eventually the central Plains. Central High Plains cyclogenesis is expected along this front as it shifts northward. However, given the more amplified nature of western troughing within the ECMWF, a much stronger surface cyclone is progged by the EC as compared to the GFS (984 mb vs. 991 mb respectively). The result is much stronger low-level theta-e advection across the central/southern Plains depicted by the EC, driving a much more rapid northward advance of the warm front. Both models suggest after-dark convective development, but where the GFS depicts weaker, elevated CAPE across Kansas, the EC's more robust, potentially near surface-based CAPE suggests greater, more widespread severe potential than the GFS. At this time, a small 15% area will be introduced, centered over the mid Missouri Valley area, mainly for the potential for hail with stronger storms. Later refinements of the risk area will likely be required. Day 5/Wednesday, a widespread, potentially substantial severe event remains apparent, and with greater agreement within the models with respect to the upper trough advance and associated positioning of the surface low/cold front, greater confidence with respect to the degree of risk exists. While a very similar 15% risk area will be depicted as in yesterday's outlook, a 30% area is being introduced from Arkansas northeastward to the mid Ohio Valley. It appears that the environment will become conducive for supercells, with very large hail, damaging winds, and strong tornadoes all possible during the afternoon and evening hours. From Day 6 onward, the cold front will continue its eastward advance across the Ohio Valley and into/across the Northeast/New England. However, much slower southward progression of the cold front is expected, with an eventual drift northward as a warm front that then lingers/oscillates across the Ohio Valley/Mid South/central and southern Plains through the end of the period. This will occur as a slow-moving trough moves into the West, and eventually evolves into a cut-off low. While weak disturbances eject eastward through southwesterly flow aloft across the central U.S. -- each of which may bring rounds of convection/severe potential in the day 6-8 time frame, narrowing down specific/greater areas of potential is difficult at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0402 AM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025 Valid 011200Z - 061200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models appear to be in fairly good agreement through much of the medium-range period, with respect to large-scale pattern evolution/placement of the main synoptic-scale features. One primary difference between the GFS and ECMWF at this time is that the EC is more highly amplified with the upper pattern through the period, and thus -- in general -- depicting stronger surface features and greater flow aloft/wind shear. One result of the higher amplitude of the ECMWF manifests Day 4/Tuesday April 1. As the eastern U.S. trough moves off the Atlantic Coast, and the cold front stalls over the northern Gulf of America early, northward return of this boundary as a warm front is forecast over the southern and eventually the central Plains. Central High Plains cyclogenesis is expected along this front as it shifts northward. However, given the more amplified nature of western troughing within the ECMWF, a much stronger surface cyclone is progged by the EC as compared to the GFS (984 mb vs. 991 mb respectively). The result is much stronger low-level theta-e advection across the central/southern Plains depicted by the EC, driving a much more rapid northward advance of the warm front. Both models suggest after-dark convective development, but where the GFS depicts weaker, elevated CAPE across Kansas, the EC's more robust, potentially near surface-based CAPE suggests greater, more widespread severe potential than the GFS. At this time, a small 15% area will be introduced, centered over the mid Missouri Valley area, mainly for the potential for hail with stronger storms. Later refinements of the risk area will likely be required. Day 5/Wednesday, a widespread, potentially substantial severe event remains apparent, and with greater agreement within the models with respect to the upper trough advance and associated positioning of the surface low/cold front, greater confidence with respect to the degree of risk exists. While a very similar 15% risk area will be depicted as in yesterday's outlook, a 30% area is being introduced from Arkansas northeastward to the mid Ohio Valley. It appears that the environment will become conducive for supercells, with very large hail, damaging winds, and strong tornadoes all possible during the afternoon and evening hours. From Day 6 onward, the cold front will continue its eastward advance across the Ohio Valley and into/across the Northeast/New England. However, much slower southward progression of the cold front is expected, with an eventual drift northward as a warm front that then lingers/oscillates across the Ohio Valley/Mid South/central and southern Plains through the end of the period. This will occur as a slow-moving trough moves into the West, and eventually evolves into a cut-off low. While weak disturbances eject eastward through southwesterly flow aloft across the central U.S. -- each of which may bring rounds of convection/severe potential in the day 6-8 time frame, narrowing down specific/greater areas of potential is difficult at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0402 AM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025 Valid 011200Z - 061200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models appear to be in fairly good agreement through much of the medium-range period, with respect to large-scale pattern evolution/placement of the main synoptic-scale features. One primary difference between the GFS and ECMWF at this time is that the EC is more highly amplified with the upper pattern through the period, and thus -- in general -- depicting stronger surface features and greater flow aloft/wind shear. One result of the higher amplitude of the ECMWF manifests Day 4/Tuesday April 1. As the eastern U.S. trough moves off the Atlantic Coast, and the cold front stalls over the northern Gulf of America early, northward return of this boundary as a warm front is forecast over the southern and eventually the central Plains. Central High Plains cyclogenesis is expected along this front as it shifts northward. However, given the more amplified nature of western troughing within the ECMWF, a much stronger surface cyclone is progged by the EC as compared to the GFS (984 mb vs. 991 mb respectively). The result is much stronger low-level theta-e advection across the central/southern Plains depicted by the EC, driving a much more rapid northward advance of the warm front. Both models suggest after-dark convective development, but where the GFS depicts weaker, elevated CAPE across Kansas, the EC's more robust, potentially near surface-based CAPE suggests greater, more widespread severe potential than the GFS. At this time, a small 15% area will be introduced, centered over the mid Missouri Valley area, mainly for the potential for hail with stronger storms. Later refinements of the risk area will likely be required. Day 5/Wednesday, a widespread, potentially substantial severe event remains apparent, and with greater agreement within the models with respect to the upper trough advance and associated positioning of the surface low/cold front, greater confidence with respect to the degree of risk exists. While a very similar 15% risk area will be depicted as in yesterday's outlook, a 30% area is being introduced from Arkansas northeastward to the mid Ohio Valley. It appears that the environment will become conducive for supercells, with very large hail, damaging winds, and strong tornadoes all possible during the afternoon and evening hours. From Day 6 onward, the cold front will continue its eastward advance across the Ohio Valley and into/across the Northeast/New England. However, much slower southward progression of the cold front is expected, with an eventual drift northward as a warm front that then lingers/oscillates across the Ohio Valley/Mid South/central and southern Plains through the end of the period. This will occur as a slow-moving trough moves into the West, and eventually evolves into a cut-off low. While weak disturbances eject eastward through southwesterly flow aloft across the central U.S. -- each of which may bring rounds of convection/severe potential in the day 6-8 time frame, narrowing down specific/greater areas of potential is difficult at this time. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST/SOUTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Strong/severe thunderstorms are forecast Monday from portions of the Northeast southwestwad to the central Gulf Coast region. ...Portions of New York and Pennsylvania south-southwestward to the central Gulf Coast... Showers and thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing along/ahead of a cold front just west of the Appalachians at the start of the period/Monday morning. Severe weather is likely to accompany some of the early-period convection. As the front advances across the higher terrain through the afternoon, some destabilization is expected -- modest across the Northeast, but more substantial with southward extent, from roughly Virginia southward. This will support an increase in storm coverage/intensity through the afternoon hours. Across northern portions of the outlook, the primary risk in the very modest CAPE environment will be locally damaging wind gusts. Farther south, an all-hazards risk is anticipated, including hail and potentially a few tornadoes. As is the case for Sunday, farther west, the NAM remains more bullish with respect to lapse rates/CAPE, and would support potentially greater than SLGT risk potential from roughly the Carolinas southwestward to Georgia and southern Alabama. However, uncertainty regarding pre-frontal clouds/convection across the Southeast early precludes inclusion of higher probabilities at this time. By evening, storms moving into southern New England should weaken, along with diminishing severe potential in part due to a cooler marine boundary layer. However, risk will likely continue through the evening farther south, until storms clear the middle and southern Atlantic coasts overnight. ..Goss.. 03/29/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST/SOUTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Strong/severe thunderstorms are forecast Monday from portions of the Northeast southwestwad to the central Gulf Coast region. ...Portions of New York and Pennsylvania south-southwestward to the central Gulf Coast... Showers and thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing along/ahead of a cold front just west of the Appalachians at the start of the period/Monday morning. Severe weather is likely to accompany some of the early-period convection. As the front advances across the higher terrain through the afternoon, some destabilization is expected -- modest across the Northeast, but more substantial with southward extent, from roughly Virginia southward. This will support an increase in storm coverage/intensity through the afternoon hours. Across northern portions of the outlook, the primary risk in the very modest CAPE environment will be locally damaging wind gusts. Farther south, an all-hazards risk is anticipated, including hail and potentially a few tornadoes. As is the case for Sunday, farther west, the NAM remains more bullish with respect to lapse rates/CAPE, and would support potentially greater than SLGT risk potential from roughly the Carolinas southwestward to Georgia and southern Alabama. However, uncertainty regarding pre-frontal clouds/convection across the Southeast early precludes inclusion of higher probabilities at this time. By evening, storms moving into southern New England should weaken, along with diminishing severe potential in part due to a cooler marine boundary layer. However, risk will likely continue through the evening farther south, until storms clear the middle and southern Atlantic coasts overnight. ..Goss.. 03/29/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST/SOUTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Strong/severe thunderstorms are forecast Monday from portions of the Northeast southwestwad to the central Gulf Coast region. ...Portions of New York and Pennsylvania south-southwestward to the central Gulf Coast... Showers and thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing along/ahead of a cold front just west of the Appalachians at the start of the period/Monday morning. Severe weather is likely to accompany some of the early-period convection. As the front advances across the higher terrain through the afternoon, some destabilization is expected -- modest across the Northeast, but more substantial with southward extent, from roughly Virginia southward. This will support an increase in storm coverage/intensity through the afternoon hours. Across northern portions of the outlook, the primary risk in the very modest CAPE environment will be locally damaging wind gusts. Farther south, an all-hazards risk is anticipated, including hail and potentially a few tornadoes. As is the case for Sunday, farther west, the NAM remains more bullish with respect to lapse rates/CAPE, and would support potentially greater than SLGT risk potential from roughly the Carolinas southwestward to Georgia and southern Alabama. However, uncertainty regarding pre-frontal clouds/convection across the Southeast early precludes inclusion of higher probabilities at this time. By evening, storms moving into southern New England should weaken, along with diminishing severe potential in part due to a cooler marine boundary layer. However, risk will likely continue through the evening farther south, until storms clear the middle and southern Atlantic coasts overnight. ..Goss.. 03/29/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST/SOUTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Strong/severe thunderstorms are forecast Monday from portions of the Northeast southwestwad to the central Gulf Coast region. ...Portions of New York and Pennsylvania south-southwestward to the central Gulf Coast... Showers and thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing along/ahead of a cold front just west of the Appalachians at the start of the period/Monday morning. Severe weather is likely to accompany some of the early-period convection. As the front advances across the higher terrain through the afternoon, some destabilization is expected -- modest across the Northeast, but more substantial with southward extent, from roughly Virginia southward. This will support an increase in storm coverage/intensity through the afternoon hours. Across northern portions of the outlook, the primary risk in the very modest CAPE environment will be locally damaging wind gusts. Farther south, an all-hazards risk is anticipated, including hail and potentially a few tornadoes. As is the case for Sunday, farther west, the NAM remains more bullish with respect to lapse rates/CAPE, and would support potentially greater than SLGT risk potential from roughly the Carolinas southwestward to Georgia and southern Alabama. However, uncertainty regarding pre-frontal clouds/convection across the Southeast early precludes inclusion of higher probabilities at this time. By evening, storms moving into southern New England should weaken, along with diminishing severe potential in part due to a cooler marine boundary layer. However, risk will likely continue through the evening farther south, until storms clear the middle and southern Atlantic coasts overnight. ..Goss.. 03/29/2025 Read more