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5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 05 Sep 2025 02:58:07 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 05 Sep 2025 03:21:23 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 05 Sep 2025 02:58:07 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 05 Sep 2025 02:58:07 GMT

Issued at 500 PM HST Thu Sep 04 2025 184 WTPZ41 KNHC 050256 TCDEP1 Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112025 500 PM HST Thu Sep 04 2025 The satellite presentation of Kiko has degraded considerably since the previous advisory, with the once warm and nearly cloud free eye, now obscured by a central dense overcast with cloud top temperatures of -65 to -80C. Given the mostly favorable environment that the cyclone is traversing, it is likely that Kiko is once again undergoing an eyewall replacement. The most recent subjective Dvorak current intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB were 6.0/115 kt and 5.5/102 kt respectively, while the objective estimates from UW-CIMSS have ranged between 101 and 117 kt during the past several hours. Based on a blend of these data and accounting for the degradation in satellite appearance, the initial intensity has been lowered to 110 kt for this advisory, and Kiko is now a category 3 hurricane. Kiko is moving just north of due west, or 275 degrees, at 8 kt. A gradual turn toward the west-northwest is expected tonight and Friday, as the western extent of a subtropical ridge to the north of the cyclone is eroded by developing upper-level low north of Hawaii. This general motion along with a gradual increase in forward speed is forecast to continue over the weekend and through early next week, as Kiko moves along the southwest periphery of the subtropical ridge to the northeast and toward a westward moving upper-level low to the north and northwest of the Hawaiian Islands. The latest track forecast is very close to the previous forecast through 60 hours, and slightly to the north of the previous forecast for days 3 through 5, following the latest guidance trends. The track forecast is closest to the TVCE consensus aid, and is to the south of the HCCA and FSSE consensus aids. Kiko will remain over warm waters of 27–28C for the next 24 hours, while influenced by light northeasterly vertical wind shear and in a somewhat drier than optimal mid-level environment. Despite the dry mid-level airmass, the mostly favorable environment could lead to some slight intensification tonight and Friday, provided that the eyewall replacement cycle which is likely ongoing, completes. Beyond 24 hours through day 3, Kiko will move over slightly cooler waters of 26 to 27C and into a drier mid-level environment with humidity levels below 50 percent. Despite very light vertical wind shear, these less favorable conditions should lead to gradual weakening of the cyclone. By days 4 and 5, Kiko will be moving over cooler water near or slightly below 26C, with west-southwesterly vertical wind shear ramping up to more than 30 kt by day 5, while mid-level moisture also plummets below 40 percent. The increasingly hostile environment should lead to rapid weakening of Kiko as the cyclone approaches the Hawaiian Islands from the east-southeast. The official intensity forecast has been lowered slightly from the previous advisory cycle, but remains on the higher end or slightly above the intensity aids through day 3 due to the continued potential for Kiko to develop annular characteristics. The intensity forecast then trends closer to the intensity consensus aid HCCA by days 4 and 5, with Kiko forecast to be a tropical storm by day 5 as it nears the eastern end of the Hawaiian Island chain. Key Messages: 1. Kiko is forecast to approach the Hawaiian Islands during the early to the middle portion of next week. The risk of direct impacts from wind and rainfall is increasing. However, it is too soon to determine the exact location or magnitude of these impacts, and interests there should continue to monitor the progress of this storm. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0300Z 13.9N 135.4W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 05/1200Z 14.2N 136.6W 120 KT 140 MPH 24H 06/0000Z 14.7N 138.5W 115 KT 130 MPH 36H 06/1200Z 15.3N 140.4W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 07/0000Z 16.0N 142.2W 105 KT 120 MPH 60H 07/1200Z 16.7N 144.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 08/0000Z 17.6N 146.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 09/0000Z 19.3N 150.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 10/0000Z 21.0N 154.7W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Jelsema (CPHC)

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 05 2025 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 050255 PWSEP1 HURRICANE KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112025 0300 UTC FRI SEP 05 2025 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 135.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 110 KTS...125 MPH...205 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 135W 34 8 2(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) 15N 140W 34 X 42(42) 54(96) 1(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) 15N 140W 50 X 7( 7) 71(78) 4(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) 15N 140W 64 X 1( 1) 55(56) 5(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 28(38) 2(40) X(40) 15N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 15N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 25(27) 5(32) 1(33) 20N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 20N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 15N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) X( 9) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 63(67) 7(74) 20N 150W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 34(34) 6(40) 20N 150W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 3(19) 25N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 20N 151W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 54(55) 15(70) 20N 151W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) 11(34) 20N 151W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 6(17) BUOY 51004 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 5(20) BUOY 51004 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 20N 154W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 28(38) 20N 154W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 20N 154W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) HILO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 19(23) HILO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) HILO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) BRADSHAW AAF 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 18N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) SOUTH POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 21N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 19(22) 21N 156W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 21N 156W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) KAILUA-KONA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) KAILUA-KONA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) KAHULUI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) KAHULUI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) KAHULUI 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 21N 158W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) BARKING SANDS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) HANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 18(21) HANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) HANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) LANAI CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) LANAI CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) KAUNAKAKAI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) HONOLULU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) JOINT BASE PHH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) LIHUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) $$ FORECASTER JELSEMA (CPHC)

Issued at 500 PM HST Thu Sep 04 2025 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 050255 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Kiko Advisory Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112025 500 PM HST Thu Sep 04 2025 ...KIKO WEAKENS SLIGHTLY WELL TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HAWAII... SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.9N 135.4W ABOUT 1360 MI...2190 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII ABOUT 1565 MI...2520 KM ESE OF HONOLULU HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should monitor the progress of Kiko. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kiko was located near latitude 13.9 North, longitude 135.4 West. Kiko is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h). A gradual turn toward the west-northwest is expected tonight and Friday, with this motion forecast to continue through the weekend with a slight increase in forward speed. Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts. Kiko is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some strengthening is possible tonight and Friday, followed by slow weakening Friday night through the weekend. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 954 mb (28.17 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Kiko can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC. SURF: Swells generated by Hurricane Kiko could begin reaching the Hawaiian Islands towards the end of this weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products by the National Weather Service in Honolulu, Hawaii. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST. $$ Forecaster Jelsema (CPHC)

...KIKO WEAKENS SLIGHTLY WELL TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HAWAII... As of 5:00 PM HST Thu Sep 04 the center of Kiko was located near 13.9, -135.4 with movement W at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 954 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 125 mph.

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 05 2025 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 050254 TCMEP1 HURRICANE KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112025 0300 UTC FRI SEP 05 2025 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 135.4W AT 05/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 954 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 35NE 35SE 25SW 35NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. 4 M SEAS....120NE 120SE 105SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 135.4W AT 05/0300Z AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 135.0W FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 14.2N 136.6W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 35NW. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 14.7N 138.5W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 35NE 35SE 30SW 35NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 15.3N 140.4W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 35NE 30SE 30SW 35NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 16.0N 142.2W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 35NE 30SE 30SW 35NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 16.7N 144.2W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 35NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 17.6N 146.2W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 35NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 19.3N 150.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 21.0N 154.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 34 KT... 70NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.9N 135.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z $$ FORECASTER JELSEMA (CPHC)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 05 Sep 2025 02:39:56 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 05 Sep 2025 02:39:57 GMT

Issued at 800 PM PDT Thu Sep 04 2025 598 WTPZ42 KNHC 050238 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Lorena Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122025 800 PM PDT Thu Sep 04 2025 Lorena has not produced deep convection near its center since about 8 AM this morning. Waves of heavy showers and thunderstorms continue to stream northeastward across Baja California Sur, Sonora, and northern Sinaloa, but this activity cannot be directly linked to Lorena's circulation. Weakening is assumed to have occurred since the earlier aircraft and ASCAT data, and the intensity is set at 40 kt based on a blend of Dvorak CI numbers and objective numbers (which are between 30 and 45 kt). With Lorena over cool waters and southwesterly shear only expected to increase, deep convection is not forecast to redevelop, and Lorena is likely to become post-tropical Friday morning. Winds will continue to steadily decrease, with the remnant low likely to dissipate by late Sunday. Lorena has been moving west of the dynamical model guidance over the past 6 to 12 hours, and the best-performing track models since this morning have been the simple shallow Trajectory and Beta Advection (TABS) models. Given that the circulation will remain shallow, the new NHC track forecast blends the TABS models with the latest GFS-ECWMF mean and HCCA consensus aid. This puts the new forecast west of the previous prediction by a somewhat noticeable degree, showing more of a slow northwestward motion instead of northward trajectory. Abundant moisture will continue to stream northeastward away from Lorena even though it is weakening. Significant rainfall and flash flooding has already occurred over portions of Baja California Sur, and the risk of life-threatening flash flooding will continue across portions of Baja California Sur and Sonora through Friday, and southern Arizona and New Mexico through Saturday. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall associated with Lorena will continue to impact Baja California Sur and Sonora Mexico through Friday. This will increase the risk of life-threatening flash floods and mudslides across northwest Mexico. 2. Moisture from Lorena will contribute to heavy rainfall concerns across Arizona and New Mexico through Saturday. Isolated to scattered instances of flash flooding are possible across Arizona into Saturday. 3. Life-threatening surf and rip current conditions will affect portions of the western coast of Baja California Sur through Friday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0300Z 24.6N 115.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 05/1200Z 25.0N 115.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 06/0000Z 25.3N 115.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 06/1200Z 25.7N 115.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 07/0000Z 26.1N 116.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 07/1200Z 26.5N 117.6W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 05 2025 596 FOPZ12 KNHC 050237 PWSEP2 TROPICAL STORM LORENA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122025 0300 UTC FRI SEP 05 2025 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LORENA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 25N 115W 34 3 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER BERG

Issued at 800 PM PDT Thu Sep 04 2025 504 WTPZ32 KNHC 050237 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Lorena Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122025 800 PM PDT Thu Sep 04 2025 ...LORENA EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL VERY SOON... ...MOST IMPORTANTLY, THE RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES FOR BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR AND SONORA THROUGH FRIDAY... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.6N 115.1W ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM W OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in Baja California Sur and Sonora, Mexico, should continue to monitor the risk of heavy rainfall and flash flooding associated with Lorena. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lorena was located near latitude 24.6 North, longitude 115.1 West. Lorena is moving toward the northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A slow north-northwestward to northwestward motion is expected through early Saturday, followed by a turn toward the west-northwest over the weekend. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast, and Lorena is expected to become a remnant low by Friday morning. The remnant low is likely to dissipate by late Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) to the northwest of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Lorena can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC. RAINFALL: Bands of heavy rainfall will continue to impact Baja California Sur and Sonora Mexico through Friday. Additional rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches, with maximum storm total amounts of 15 inches, are possible across portions of Baja California Sur, far southeast Baja California and southwestern Sonora into Friday. This will bring the risk of life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in areas of higher terrain. Elsewhere across Mexico, 2 to 4 inches of rain, with isolated totals up to 6 inches, are expected across the remainder of Sonora and northern Sinaloa. These amounts will lead to isolated to scattered instances of flash flooding. Across the southwestern United States, 1 to 2 inches of rain, with isolated totals up to 4 inches, are expected across portions of Arizona and New Mexico through Saturday, bringing the potential for isolated to scattered flash flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Lorena, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Swells generated by Lorena will continue affecting portions of the west coast of Baja California Sur through Friday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Berg

...LORENA EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL VERY SOON... ...MOST IMPORTANTLY, THE RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES FOR BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR AND SONORA THROUGH FRIDAY... As of 8:00 PM PDT Thu Sep 04 the center of Lorena was located near 24.6, -115.1 with movement NW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 05 2025 514 WTPZ22 KNHC 050237 TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM LORENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122025 0300 UTC FRI SEP 05 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 115.1W AT 05/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. 4 M SEAS.... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 115.1W AT 05/0300Z AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 115.0W FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 25.0N 115.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 25.3N 115.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 25.7N 115.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 26.1N 116.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 26.5N 117.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.6N 115.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

Kentucky livestock farmers are feeding hay early as pastures have stopped growing due to the dry conditions. WKYT (Kentucky). Sept. 4, 2025.

Level 4 water use restrictions have been implemented in Exeter, New Hampshire, as local river levels decline. Under the restrictions, water lawns, washing cars, and washing outdoor spaces will be limited. Watering crops and animals is still allowed. WMUR9 ABC (New Hampshire). Sept. 4, 2025.

The Ipswich water department issued a ban on all outdoor water uses, starting Sept. 4. The area is under severe drought conditions, with low local streamflows and declining reservoir storage. Water bans will be enforced by the police department and the water department. Outdoor uses that are allowed include those for health or safety, agricultural purposes, and core functions of business. The Local News (Massachusetts). Sept. 4, 2025.

Dams and wells in Clinton County, New York, have been drying up. One dam that supplies water for West Chazy firefighters is nearly empty. A transport company in Chazy has been filling up people's private wells to help them meet basic needs such as doing laundry at home. One resident had been using a laundromat since she had no domestic supply. NBC5 (Vermont). Sept. 4, 2025.

Pasture have been short on a Belmont County, Ohio, farm for the past month. The second hay crop on the farm had poor nutrient quality. WTOV9 FOX (Ohio). Sept. 4, 2025.

Livestock farmers in Vermont report needing to purchase feed and haul water as the entire state is under moderate or severe drought. A farmer in Middlebury bought 2,000 tons of corn from a neighbor as his supply ran out. The corn cost around $100,000 not including the time and labor of harvesting the corn himself. The farm had not had to purchase feed since 1965. Several streamwater gauges and wells are at record lows. A dairy farmer in Orwell has dry wells, so he is hauling up to 5,000 gallons of water per day from a creek for his cattle. He said that some farmers in the area are reporting daily losses of 10 pounds of milk per cow due to the heat. Other farmers have not been able to get a third cutting of hay. VTDigger (Vermont). Sept. 4, 2025.

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 PM CDT Thu Sep 04 2025 Valid 050100Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected tonight. ...Southwest/south-central KS... A sharpening cold front will sweep southward across KS tonight. Mostly elevated convection should increase to the cool side of this undercutting boundary, mainly during the early morning/pre-dawn hours. Initially steep mid-level lapse rates and adequate MUCAPE could support a few storms capable of producing small hail and locally strong gusts amid strengthening low-level northerlies. Overall severe potential still appears fairly low. ..Grams.. 09/05/2025 Read more