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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Fri Sep 05 2025 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds, isolated severe hail, and a brief tornado or two are possible from the Upper Ohio to Tennessee Valleys, mainly late this afternoon and evening. ...Ohio Valley/Central Appalachians to the Tennessee Valley... A large-scale upper trough/low will remain centered over Ontario today, with mid/upper-level troughing extending southward across much of the Great Lakes/Midwest into the OH Valley. A cold front will continue to advance slowly southeastward across portions of the Mid-South and OH Valley through this evening. Daytime heating of a seasonably moist low-level airmass ahead of this front over the TN Valley will likely yield upwards of 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE by late afternoon, mainly in KY/TN. Weaker instability is forecast with northward extent into the upper OH Valley and central Appalachians. Forcing for ascent aloft will remain nebulous for much of the day, with generally neutral mid-level heights and stronger flow remaining confined to the north of the surface cold front. Still, a subtle mid-level perturbation over eastern KS and the Ozarks late this morning should continue eastward towards the Mid-South and lower OH Valley by late afternoon/early evening. This feature, along with modest low-level convergence along the front, may be sufficient to encourage initial convective development by 21-23Z across parts of KY/TN. Even with stronger flow aloft remaining displaced to the north of the surface warm sector, some veering and gradual strengthening with height through mid/upper levels should support sufficient deep-layer shear for updraft organization. Current expectations are for multiple clusters to develop and pose a risk for mainly severe/damaging winds as they spread eastward across the TN and upper OH Valleys through the late afternoon and evening. With cool temperatures aloft and marginal deep-layer shear to support supercells, some of this activity could also pose a threat for isolated hail, especially any cells that can remain at least semi-discrete. A brief tornado or two also appears possible, although low-level shear should remain fairly limited given veered/west-southwesterly low-level flow. With a relatively narrow warm sector expected, convection should generally weaken this evening as it moves into the higher terrain of the central Appalachians and encounters a less unstable airmass. ...Mid-South to North Texas... An elongated mid-level thermal trough, characterized by 500 mb temperatures around -8 to -12 C per RAP analysis and 12Z OUN/FWD observed soundings, extends into much of OK and north TX, well to the south of the vertically stacked cyclone over Ontario. Low to mid-level flow should remain modest across this region, with some signal from various NAM/RAP forecast soundings of a veer-back-veer signature. Strong speed shear should remain confined above 500 mb, coincident with poor upper-level lapse rates atop steeper mid-level lapse rates. This suggests a messy convective mode should be common as convection increases in the late afternoon and evening, along the more west/east-oriented portion of the surface cold front. Have maintained the Marginal Risk for an isolated severe hail/wind threat with a small westward expansion with this update. ...Oregon... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms should develop today across parts of OR as a weak mid-level trough moves northward across the Pacific Northwest Coast. While low/mid-level flow is expected to remain rather modest, steepened low-level lapse rates could support isolated strong/gusty winds with any high-based convection that develops this afternoon/evening. ..Gleason/Weinman.. 09/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Fri Sep 05 2025 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds, isolated severe hail, and a brief tornado or two are possible from the Upper Ohio to Tennessee Valleys, mainly late this afternoon and evening. ...Ohio Valley/Central Appalachians to the Tennessee Valley... A large-scale upper trough/low will remain centered over Ontario today, with mid/upper-level troughing extending southward across much of the Great Lakes/Midwest into the OH Valley. A cold front will continue to advance slowly southeastward across portions of the Mid-South and OH Valley through this evening. Daytime heating of a seasonably moist low-level airmass ahead of this front over the TN Valley will likely yield upwards of 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE by late afternoon, mainly in KY/TN. Weaker instability is forecast with northward extent into the upper OH Valley and central Appalachians. Forcing for ascent aloft will remain nebulous for much of the day, with generally neutral mid-level heights and stronger flow remaining confined to the north of the surface cold front. Still, a subtle mid-level perturbation over eastern KS and the Ozarks late this morning should continue eastward towards the Mid-South and lower OH Valley by late afternoon/early evening. This feature, along with modest low-level convergence along the front, may be sufficient to encourage initial convective development by 21-23Z across parts of KY/TN. Even with stronger flow aloft remaining displaced to the north of the surface warm sector, some veering and gradual strengthening with height through mid/upper levels should support sufficient deep-layer shear for updraft organization. Current expectations are for multiple clusters to develop and pose a risk for mainly severe/damaging winds as they spread eastward across the TN and upper OH Valleys through the late afternoon and evening. With cool temperatures aloft and marginal deep-layer shear to support supercells, some of this activity could also pose a threat for isolated hail, especially any cells that can remain at least semi-discrete. A brief tornado or two also appears possible, although low-level shear should remain fairly limited given veered/west-southwesterly low-level flow. With a relatively narrow warm sector expected, convection should generally weaken this evening as it moves into the higher terrain of the central Appalachians and encounters a less unstable airmass. ...Mid-South to North Texas... An elongated mid-level thermal trough, characterized by 500 mb temperatures around -8 to -12 C per RAP analysis and 12Z OUN/FWD observed soundings, extends into much of OK and north TX, well to the south of the vertically stacked cyclone over Ontario. Low to mid-level flow should remain modest across this region, with some signal from various NAM/RAP forecast soundings of a veer-back-veer signature. Strong speed shear should remain confined above 500 mb, coincident with poor upper-level lapse rates atop steeper mid-level lapse rates. This suggests a messy convective mode should be common as convection increases in the late afternoon and evening, along the more west/east-oriented portion of the surface cold front. Have maintained the Marginal Risk for an isolated severe hail/wind threat with a small westward expansion with this update. ...Oregon... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms should develop today across parts of OR as a weak mid-level trough moves northward across the Pacific Northwest Coast. While low/mid-level flow is expected to remain rather modest, steepened low-level lapse rates could support isolated strong/gusty winds with any high-based convection that develops this afternoon/evening. ..Gleason/Weinman.. 09/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Fri Sep 05 2025 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds, isolated severe hail, and a brief tornado or two are possible from the Upper Ohio to Tennessee Valleys, mainly late this afternoon and evening. ...Ohio Valley/Central Appalachians to the Tennessee Valley... A large-scale upper trough/low will remain centered over Ontario today, with mid/upper-level troughing extending southward across much of the Great Lakes/Midwest into the OH Valley. A cold front will continue to advance slowly southeastward across portions of the Mid-South and OH Valley through this evening. Daytime heating of a seasonably moist low-level airmass ahead of this front over the TN Valley will likely yield upwards of 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE by late afternoon, mainly in KY/TN. Weaker instability is forecast with northward extent into the upper OH Valley and central Appalachians. Forcing for ascent aloft will remain nebulous for much of the day, with generally neutral mid-level heights and stronger flow remaining confined to the north of the surface cold front. Still, a subtle mid-level perturbation over eastern KS and the Ozarks late this morning should continue eastward towards the Mid-South and lower OH Valley by late afternoon/early evening. This feature, along with modest low-level convergence along the front, may be sufficient to encourage initial convective development by 21-23Z across parts of KY/TN. Even with stronger flow aloft remaining displaced to the north of the surface warm sector, some veering and gradual strengthening with height through mid/upper levels should support sufficient deep-layer shear for updraft organization. Current expectations are for multiple clusters to develop and pose a risk for mainly severe/damaging winds as they spread eastward across the TN and upper OH Valleys through the late afternoon and evening. With cool temperatures aloft and marginal deep-layer shear to support supercells, some of this activity could also pose a threat for isolated hail, especially any cells that can remain at least semi-discrete. A brief tornado or two also appears possible, although low-level shear should remain fairly limited given veered/west-southwesterly low-level flow. With a relatively narrow warm sector expected, convection should generally weaken this evening as it moves into the higher terrain of the central Appalachians and encounters a less unstable airmass. ...Mid-South to North Texas... An elongated mid-level thermal trough, characterized by 500 mb temperatures around -8 to -12 C per RAP analysis and 12Z OUN/FWD observed soundings, extends into much of OK and north TX, well to the south of the vertically stacked cyclone over Ontario. Low to mid-level flow should remain modest across this region, with some signal from various NAM/RAP forecast soundings of a veer-back-veer signature. Strong speed shear should remain confined above 500 mb, coincident with poor upper-level lapse rates atop steeper mid-level lapse rates. This suggests a messy convective mode should be common as convection increases in the late afternoon and evening, along the more west/east-oriented portion of the surface cold front. Have maintained the Marginal Risk for an isolated severe hail/wind threat with a small westward expansion with this update. ...Oregon... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms should develop today across parts of OR as a weak mid-level trough moves northward across the Pacific Northwest Coast. While low/mid-level flow is expected to remain rather modest, steepened low-level lapse rates could support isolated strong/gusty winds with any high-based convection that develops this afternoon/evening. ..Gleason/Weinman.. 09/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Fri Sep 05 2025 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds, isolated severe hail, and a brief tornado or two are possible from the Upper Ohio to Tennessee Valleys, mainly late this afternoon and evening. ...Ohio Valley/Central Appalachians to the Tennessee Valley... A large-scale upper trough/low will remain centered over Ontario today, with mid/upper-level troughing extending southward across much of the Great Lakes/Midwest into the OH Valley. A cold front will continue to advance slowly southeastward across portions of the Mid-South and OH Valley through this evening. Daytime heating of a seasonably moist low-level airmass ahead of this front over the TN Valley will likely yield upwards of 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE by late afternoon, mainly in KY/TN. Weaker instability is forecast with northward extent into the upper OH Valley and central Appalachians. Forcing for ascent aloft will remain nebulous for much of the day, with generally neutral mid-level heights and stronger flow remaining confined to the north of the surface cold front. Still, a subtle mid-level perturbation over eastern KS and the Ozarks late this morning should continue eastward towards the Mid-South and lower OH Valley by late afternoon/early evening. This feature, along with modest low-level convergence along the front, may be sufficient to encourage initial convective development by 21-23Z across parts of KY/TN. Even with stronger flow aloft remaining displaced to the north of the surface warm sector, some veering and gradual strengthening with height through mid/upper levels should support sufficient deep-layer shear for updraft organization. Current expectations are for multiple clusters to develop and pose a risk for mainly severe/damaging winds as they spread eastward across the TN and upper OH Valleys through the late afternoon and evening. With cool temperatures aloft and marginal deep-layer shear to support supercells, some of this activity could also pose a threat for isolated hail, especially any cells that can remain at least semi-discrete. A brief tornado or two also appears possible, although low-level shear should remain fairly limited given veered/west-southwesterly low-level flow. With a relatively narrow warm sector expected, convection should generally weaken this evening as it moves into the higher terrain of the central Appalachians and encounters a less unstable airmass. ...Mid-South to North Texas... An elongated mid-level thermal trough, characterized by 500 mb temperatures around -8 to -12 C per RAP analysis and 12Z OUN/FWD observed soundings, extends into much of OK and north TX, well to the south of the vertically stacked cyclone over Ontario. Low to mid-level flow should remain modest across this region, with some signal from various NAM/RAP forecast soundings of a veer-back-veer signature. Strong speed shear should remain confined above 500 mb, coincident with poor upper-level lapse rates atop steeper mid-level lapse rates. This suggests a messy convective mode should be common as convection increases in the late afternoon and evening, along the more west/east-oriented portion of the surface cold front. Have maintained the Marginal Risk for an isolated severe hail/wind threat with a small westward expansion with this update. ...Oregon... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms should develop today across parts of OR as a weak mid-level trough moves northward across the Pacific Northwest Coast. While low/mid-level flow is expected to remain rather modest, steepened low-level lapse rates could support isolated strong/gusty winds with any high-based convection that develops this afternoon/evening. ..Gleason/Weinman.. 09/05/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Fri Sep 05 2025 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z ...Update... No changes were required for today's forecast. Expect increasing chances of lightning beginning late this afternoon across southeastern OR, peaking by this evening over central OR. ..Barnes.. 09/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0137 AM CDT Fri Sep 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Midwest/Great Lakes Regions as upper ridging remains in place over the Interior West, but with a small but pronounced mid-level impulse impinging on the northern California coastline today. This impulse, in tandem with adequate instability, will provide enough lift to support at least scattered thunderstorms to portions of the Pacific Northwest this afternoon into the overnight hours. These storms will move atop a modestly dry boundary layer, with wet and dry storm modes both possible. Nonetheless, these storms will overspread dry fuel beds, especially from the central/northern Cascades and points east. Dry thunderstorm highlights remain in place for the possibility of lightning strikes (some dry) posing a hazard for fuel ignition. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Fri Sep 05 2025 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z ...Update... No changes were required for today's forecast. Expect increasing chances of lightning beginning late this afternoon across southeastern OR, peaking by this evening over central OR. ..Barnes.. 09/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0137 AM CDT Fri Sep 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Midwest/Great Lakes Regions as upper ridging remains in place over the Interior West, but with a small but pronounced mid-level impulse impinging on the northern California coastline today. This impulse, in tandem with adequate instability, will provide enough lift to support at least scattered thunderstorms to portions of the Pacific Northwest this afternoon into the overnight hours. These storms will move atop a modestly dry boundary layer, with wet and dry storm modes both possible. Nonetheless, these storms will overspread dry fuel beds, especially from the central/northern Cascades and points east. Dry thunderstorm highlights remain in place for the possibility of lightning strikes (some dry) posing a hazard for fuel ignition. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Fri Sep 05 2025 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z ...Update... No changes were required for today's forecast. Expect increasing chances of lightning beginning late this afternoon across southeastern OR, peaking by this evening over central OR. ..Barnes.. 09/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0137 AM CDT Fri Sep 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Midwest/Great Lakes Regions as upper ridging remains in place over the Interior West, but with a small but pronounced mid-level impulse impinging on the northern California coastline today. This impulse, in tandem with adequate instability, will provide enough lift to support at least scattered thunderstorms to portions of the Pacific Northwest this afternoon into the overnight hours. These storms will move atop a modestly dry boundary layer, with wet and dry storm modes both possible. Nonetheless, these storms will overspread dry fuel beds, especially from the central/northern Cascades and points east. Dry thunderstorm highlights remain in place for the possibility of lightning strikes (some dry) posing a hazard for fuel ignition. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Fri Sep 05 2025 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z ...Update... No changes were required for today's forecast. Expect increasing chances of lightning beginning late this afternoon across southeastern OR, peaking by this evening over central OR. ..Barnes.. 09/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0137 AM CDT Fri Sep 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Midwest/Great Lakes Regions as upper ridging remains in place over the Interior West, but with a small but pronounced mid-level impulse impinging on the northern California coastline today. This impulse, in tandem with adequate instability, will provide enough lift to support at least scattered thunderstorms to portions of the Pacific Northwest this afternoon into the overnight hours. These storms will move atop a modestly dry boundary layer, with wet and dry storm modes both possible. Nonetheless, these storms will overspread dry fuel beds, especially from the central/northern Cascades and points east. Dry thunderstorm highlights remain in place for the possibility of lightning strikes (some dry) posing a hazard for fuel ignition. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Fri Sep 05 2025 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z ...Update... No changes were required for today's forecast. Expect increasing chances of lightning beginning late this afternoon across southeastern OR, peaking by this evening over central OR. ..Barnes.. 09/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0137 AM CDT Fri Sep 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Midwest/Great Lakes Regions as upper ridging remains in place over the Interior West, but with a small but pronounced mid-level impulse impinging on the northern California coastline today. This impulse, in tandem with adequate instability, will provide enough lift to support at least scattered thunderstorms to portions of the Pacific Northwest this afternoon into the overnight hours. These storms will move atop a modestly dry boundary layer, with wet and dry storm modes both possible. Nonetheless, these storms will overspread dry fuel beds, especially from the central/northern Cascades and points east. Dry thunderstorm highlights remain in place for the possibility of lightning strikes (some dry) posing a hazard for fuel ignition. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Fri Sep 05 2025 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z ...Update... No changes were required for today's forecast. Expect increasing chances of lightning beginning late this afternoon across southeastern OR, peaking by this evening over central OR. ..Barnes.. 09/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0137 AM CDT Fri Sep 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Midwest/Great Lakes Regions as upper ridging remains in place over the Interior West, but with a small but pronounced mid-level impulse impinging on the northern California coastline today. This impulse, in tandem with adequate instability, will provide enough lift to support at least scattered thunderstorms to portions of the Pacific Northwest this afternoon into the overnight hours. These storms will move atop a modestly dry boundary layer, with wet and dry storm modes both possible. Nonetheless, these storms will overspread dry fuel beds, especially from the central/northern Cascades and points east. Dry thunderstorm highlights remain in place for the possibility of lightning strikes (some dry) posing a hazard for fuel ignition. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 05 Sep 2025 15:00:19 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 05 Sep 2025 15:21:31 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 05 Sep 2025 15:00:19 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 05 Sep 2025 15:00:19 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 05 Sep 2025 14:39:52 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 05 Sep 2025 14:39:52 GMT

Issued at 500 AM HST Fri Sep 05 2025 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 051446 CCA TCDEP1 Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number 22...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112025 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 500 AM HST Fri Sep 05 2025 Corrected Key Message for Kiko The satellite presentation of Kiko continues to slowly deteriorate early this morning, with the eye obscured by high clouds emanating from the coldest convective tops in the southeast quadrant. The most recent subjective Dvorak current intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are T6.0/115 kt and T5.0/90 kt. Objective estimates, including ADT from UW-CIMSS, are a bit on the lower end of the spread between 90-100 knots. The intensity has been set at 100 kts as a blend of the subjective and objective intensity estimates. Kiko has made the expected turn to the west-northwest, or 285 degrees, at 8 kt. The western extent of a subtropical ridge to the north of the cyclone is eroding by a developing upper-level low north of Hawaii. This general west-northwestward motion along with a gradual increase in forward speed is forecast into early next week, as Kiko moves along the southwest periphery of this subtropical ridge towards the upper-level low to the north and northwest of the Hawaiian Islands. The latest track forecast early on is very similar to the previous forecast, before being adjusted somewhat to the north from Monday onward as increasing southwesterly vertical wind shear leads to convective asymmetry which could induce a jog to the right. The track forecast is closest to the HCCA consensus. Kiko will remain over warm waters of 27–28C for the next 18 hours, while influenced by light northeasterly vertical wind shear, although the cyclone will remain in a drier than optimal mid-level environment keeping the storm size smaller than average. Despite the dry mid-level airmass Kiko will be moving through, the other factors still appear favorable for some slight intensification, so the latest intensity forecast still shows a little short-term strengthening. This forecast also fits in with the possibility for Kiko to develop annular characteristics which could keep it stronger than the forecast intensity guidance. Thereafter, Kiko will move over slightly cooler waters and an even drier mid-level environment. These less favorable conditions should begin a gradual weakening trend, in spite of the very light vertical wind shear. Waters below 26 C await Kiko's track after Monday, with west-southwesterly vertical wind shear increasing steadily to more than 30 kt by Wednesday, making it more likely the nearby dry air gets imported into Kiko's small core. The increasingly hostile environment should lead to rapid weakening of the tropical cyclone as it approaches the Hawaiian Islands from the east-southeast. The official intensity forecast has been lowered slightly from the previous advisory cycle, but remains on the higher end of the intensity aids through 48 hours. The intensity forecast then trends closer to the middle of the intensity consensus envelope by Monday, and then trends lower as Kiko should convectively sputter while moving very close to the eastern end of the Hawaiian Island chain as a weakening tropical storm. Key Messages: 1. Kiko is forecast to approach the Hawaiian Islands during the early to the middle portion of next week. Impacts from rain and wind remain a possibility, but it is too soon to determine the exact location or magnitude of these impacts, and interests there should continue to monitor the progress of this storm. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/1500Z 14.2N 137.1W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 06/0000Z 14.5N 138.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 06/1200Z 15.0N 140.3W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 07/0000Z 15.7N 142.2W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 07/1200Z 16.4N 144.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 60H 08/0000Z 17.5N 146.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 08/1200Z 18.5N 148.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 09/1200Z 20.7N 152.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 10/1200Z 22.6N 157.5W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Roth/Papin

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 05 2025 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 051436 PWSEP1 HURRICANE KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112025 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1500 UTC FRI SEP 05 2025 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 137.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 100 KTS...115 MPH...185 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 140W 34 7 90(97) 2(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 15N 140W 50 X 86(86) 4(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) 15N 140W 64 X 66(66) 6(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) 20N 140W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 145W 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 35(41) 7(48) X(48) X(48) 15N 145W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 3(11) X(11) X(11) 15N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 17(23) 2(25) X(25) 20N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 35(35) 39(74) 1(75) 20N 150W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 31(39) X(39) 20N 150W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) X(16) 25N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 20N 151W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 53(70) X(70) 20N 151W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 29(32) X(32) 20N 151W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) X(13) BUOY 51004 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) 1(15) 20N 154W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 22(23) 4(27) 20N 154W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 20N 154W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) HILO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 4(14) BRADSHAW AAF 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 18N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) SOUTH POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) 21N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 10(18) 21N 156W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) KAILUA-KONA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) KAHULUI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 8(13) KAHULUI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 21N 158W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) BARKING SANDS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) HANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 8(15) HANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) LANAI CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) KAUNAKAKAI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) HONOLULU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) JOINT BASE PHH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 26N 159W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) LIHUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 25N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NIIHAU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER ROTH/PAPIN

Issued at 500 AM HST Fri Sep 05 2025 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 051435 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Kiko Advisory Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112025 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 500 AM HST Fri Sep 05 2025 ...KIKO NOW MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WELL TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HAWAII... SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.2N 137.1W ABOUT 1245 MI...2005 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII ABOUT 1450 MI...2335 KM ESE OF HONOLULU HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should monitor the progress of Kiko. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kiko was located near latitude 14.2 North, longitude 137.1 West. Kiko is now moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue for the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Kiko is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in intensity are expected during the next 48 hours followed by weakening by early next week. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 962 mb (28.41 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Kiko can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC. SURF: Swells generated by Hurricane Kiko could begin reaching the Hawaiian Islands towards the end of this weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products by the National Weather Service in Honolulu, Hawaii. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST. $$ Forecaster Roth/Papin

...KIKO NOW MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WELL TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HAWAII... As of 5:00 AM HST Fri Sep 05 the center of Kiko was located near 14.2, -137.1 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 962 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 115 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 05 2025 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 051435 TCMEP1 HURRICANE KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112025 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1500 UTC FRI SEP 05 2025 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 137.1W AT 05/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 962 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 40SE 25SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. 4 M SEAS.... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 137.1W AT 05/1500Z AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 136.7W FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 14.5N 138.5W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 15.0N 140.3W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 35NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 65NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 15.7N 142.2W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 35NE 30SE 30SW 35NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 65NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 16.4N 144.2W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 35NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 17.5N 146.2W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 35NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 18.5N 148.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 35NE 25SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 20.7N 152.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 70NW. OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 22.6N 157.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.2N 137.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ROTH/PAPIN

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 05 2025 ZCZC MIATCMEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112025 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1500 UTC FRI SEP 05 2025 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 137.1W AT 05/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 962 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 40SE 25SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. 4 M SEAS.... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 137.1W AT 05/1500Z AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 136.7W FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 14.5N 138.5W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 15.0N 140.3W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 35NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 65NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 15.7N 142.2W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 35NE 30SE 30SW 35NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 65NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 16.4N 144.2W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 35NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 17.5N 146.2W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 35NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 18.5N 148.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 35NE 25SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 20.7N 152.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 70NW. OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 22.6N 157.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.2N 137.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ROTH/PAPIN NNNN

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0709 AM CDT Fri Sep 05 2025 Valid 051300Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds, isolated severe hail, and a brief tornado or two are possible from the Upper Ohio to Tennessee Valleys during the late afternoon and evening. ...Upper OH to TN Valleys... Water-vapor imagery shows a large gyre centered over Ontario and cyclonic flow over much of eastern North America. A series of mid-level disturbances/speed maxima will rotate through its base during the Day-1 period, and there are two lead impulses over the St. Lawrence Seaway and the Upper Great Lakes this morning. A weaker impulse associated with convection early this morning over KS will rapidly move east into the northern part of the OH Valley through this evening and immediately ahead of a more notable shortwave trough moving southeast from the Dakotas into the Great Lakes. A cold front oriented mostly north-south over the Great Lakes from a surface low will push east during the day, while the trailing southern portion of the boundary that is west-east oriented, gradually pushes south and eventually overtakes a residual frontal segment. Heating ahead of the aforementioned low-amplitude impulse and strengthening low-level convergence along the boundary will likely yield scattered to numerous showers/thunderstorms developing in the late afternoon to early evening. Much of the stronger mid-level flow will remain spatially displaced from the warm sector in the post-frontal airmass except over the Upper OH Valley. Moderate buoyancy will favor strong to severe multicells and some supercells (where shear is stronger). Isolated severe gusts (55-70 mph) seem probable which will result in scattered wind damage accompanying the stronger thunderstorm cores and line segments. Models differ on the character of mixing and hodograph size over the southeast OH/WV portion of the Slight Risk, but low-tornado potential may be greatest here compared to farther south/southwest over the TN Valley. The severe threat will diminish towards late evening given the extensive overturning and lack of stronger low-level flow/shear to sustain the threat overnight. ...North TX to Mid-South... An elongated mid-level thermal trough, characterized by 500-mb temperatures of -10 to -12 C, will extend into north TX, well to the south of a persistent vertically stacked cyclone over northern Ontario. A copious amount of high cloud cover will tend to result in high-level lapse rates becoming weaker during the period. Model data implies a messy storm mode as isolated to locally scattered storm coverage ensues during the late afternoon/evening. An isolated wind/hail risk may accompany the stronger storms. ..Smith/Broyles.. 09/05/2025 Read more