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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0709 AM CDT Fri Sep 05 2025 Valid 051300Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds, isolated severe hail, and a brief tornado or two are possible from the Upper Ohio to Tennessee Valleys during the late afternoon and evening. ...Upper OH to TN Valleys... Water-vapor imagery shows a large gyre centered over Ontario and cyclonic flow over much of eastern North America. A series of mid-level disturbances/speed maxima will rotate through its base during the Day-1 period, and there are two lead impulses over the St. Lawrence Seaway and the Upper Great Lakes this morning. A weaker impulse associated with convection early this morning over KS will rapidly move east into the northern part of the OH Valley through this evening and immediately ahead of a more notable shortwave trough moving southeast from the Dakotas into the Great Lakes. A cold front oriented mostly north-south over the Great Lakes from a surface low will push east during the day, while the trailing southern portion of the boundary that is west-east oriented, gradually pushes south and eventually overtakes a residual frontal segment. Heating ahead of the aforementioned low-amplitude impulse and strengthening low-level convergence along the boundary will likely yield scattered to numerous showers/thunderstorms developing in the late afternoon to early evening. Much of the stronger mid-level flow will remain spatially displaced from the warm sector in the post-frontal airmass except over the Upper OH Valley. Moderate buoyancy will favor strong to severe multicells and some supercells (where shear is stronger). Isolated severe gusts (55-70 mph) seem probable which will result in scattered wind damage accompanying the stronger thunderstorm cores and line segments. Models differ on the character of mixing and hodograph size over the southeast OH/WV portion of the Slight Risk, but low-tornado potential may be greatest here compared to farther south/southwest over the TN Valley. The severe threat will diminish towards late evening given the extensive overturning and lack of stronger low-level flow/shear to sustain the threat overnight. ...North TX to Mid-South... An elongated mid-level thermal trough, characterized by 500-mb temperatures of -10 to -12 C, will extend into north TX, well to the south of a persistent vertically stacked cyclone over northern Ontario. A copious amount of high cloud cover will tend to result in high-level lapse rates becoming weaker during the period. Model data implies a messy storm mode as isolated to locally scattered storm coverage ensues during the late afternoon/evening. An isolated wind/hail risk may accompany the stronger storms. ..Smith/Broyles.. 09/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0709 AM CDT Fri Sep 05 2025 Valid 051300Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds, isolated severe hail, and a brief tornado or two are possible from the Upper Ohio to Tennessee Valleys during the late afternoon and evening. ...Upper OH to TN Valleys... Water-vapor imagery shows a large gyre centered over Ontario and cyclonic flow over much of eastern North America. A series of mid-level disturbances/speed maxima will rotate through its base during the Day-1 period, and there are two lead impulses over the St. Lawrence Seaway and the Upper Great Lakes this morning. A weaker impulse associated with convection early this morning over KS will rapidly move east into the northern part of the OH Valley through this evening and immediately ahead of a more notable shortwave trough moving southeast from the Dakotas into the Great Lakes. A cold front oriented mostly north-south over the Great Lakes from a surface low will push east during the day, while the trailing southern portion of the boundary that is west-east oriented, gradually pushes south and eventually overtakes a residual frontal segment. Heating ahead of the aforementioned low-amplitude impulse and strengthening low-level convergence along the boundary will likely yield scattered to numerous showers/thunderstorms developing in the late afternoon to early evening. Much of the stronger mid-level flow will remain spatially displaced from the warm sector in the post-frontal airmass except over the Upper OH Valley. Moderate buoyancy will favor strong to severe multicells and some supercells (where shear is stronger). Isolated severe gusts (55-70 mph) seem probable which will result in scattered wind damage accompanying the stronger thunderstorm cores and line segments. Models differ on the character of mixing and hodograph size over the southeast OH/WV portion of the Slight Risk, but low-tornado potential may be greatest here compared to farther south/southwest over the TN Valley. The severe threat will diminish towards late evening given the extensive overturning and lack of stronger low-level flow/shear to sustain the threat overnight. ...North TX to Mid-South... An elongated mid-level thermal trough, characterized by 500-mb temperatures of -10 to -12 C, will extend into north TX, well to the south of a persistent vertically stacked cyclone over northern Ontario. A copious amount of high cloud cover will tend to result in high-level lapse rates becoming weaker during the period. Model data implies a messy storm mode as isolated to locally scattered storm coverage ensues during the late afternoon/evening. An isolated wind/hail risk may accompany the stronger storms. ..Smith/Broyles.. 09/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0709 AM CDT Fri Sep 05 2025 Valid 051300Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds, isolated severe hail, and a brief tornado or two are possible from the Upper Ohio to Tennessee Valleys during the late afternoon and evening. ...Upper OH to TN Valleys... Water-vapor imagery shows a large gyre centered over Ontario and cyclonic flow over much of eastern North America. A series of mid-level disturbances/speed maxima will rotate through its base during the Day-1 period, and there are two lead impulses over the St. Lawrence Seaway and the Upper Great Lakes this morning. A weaker impulse associated with convection early this morning over KS will rapidly move east into the northern part of the OH Valley through this evening and immediately ahead of a more notable shortwave trough moving southeast from the Dakotas into the Great Lakes. A cold front oriented mostly north-south over the Great Lakes from a surface low will push east during the day, while the trailing southern portion of the boundary that is west-east oriented, gradually pushes south and eventually overtakes a residual frontal segment. Heating ahead of the aforementioned low-amplitude impulse and strengthening low-level convergence along the boundary will likely yield scattered to numerous showers/thunderstorms developing in the late afternoon to early evening. Much of the stronger mid-level flow will remain spatially displaced from the warm sector in the post-frontal airmass except over the Upper OH Valley. Moderate buoyancy will favor strong to severe multicells and some supercells (where shear is stronger). Isolated severe gusts (55-70 mph) seem probable which will result in scattered wind damage accompanying the stronger thunderstorm cores and line segments. Models differ on the character of mixing and hodograph size over the southeast OH/WV portion of the Slight Risk, but low-tornado potential may be greatest here compared to farther south/southwest over the TN Valley. The severe threat will diminish towards late evening given the extensive overturning and lack of stronger low-level flow/shear to sustain the threat overnight. ...North TX to Mid-South... An elongated mid-level thermal trough, characterized by 500-mb temperatures of -10 to -12 C, will extend into north TX, well to the south of a persistent vertically stacked cyclone over northern Ontario. A copious amount of high cloud cover will tend to result in high-level lapse rates becoming weaker during the period. Model data implies a messy storm mode as isolated to locally scattered storm coverage ensues during the late afternoon/evening. An isolated wind/hail risk may accompany the stronger storms. ..Smith/Broyles.. 09/05/2025 Read more

708
ABPZ20 KNHC 051150
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
500 AM PDT Fri Sep 5 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Kiko, located in the East Pacific basin well east-southeast of the
Hawaiian Islands. Kiko is expected to cross into the central
Pacific basin by tonight.

The National Hurricane Center has issued the final advisory on
Post-Tropical Cyclone Lorena, located just off the west coast of
Baja California Sur.

Central East Pacific:
An area of low pressure could develop in the central
portion of the eastern Pacific well to the south of the Baja
California Peninsula by the early portion of next week. Some slow
development of this system is possible thereafter as it moves
generally westward over the open waters of the East Pacific.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Roth/Papin

000
ABNT20 KNHC 051132
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Sep 5 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Tropical Atlantic (AL91):
A broad area of low pressure over the eastern tropical Atlantic,
associated with a tropical wave, is producing a disorganized area of
showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are favorable
for development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely
to form over the weekend or early next week as it moves slowly
westward at 5 to 10 mph across the central tropical Atlantic. This
system is likely to be near the Lesser Antilles by the middle to
latter part of next week, and interests there should monitor its
progress.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 05 Sep 2025 09:01:17 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 05 Sep 2025 09:26:27 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 05 Sep 2025 09:01:15 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 05 Sep 2025 09:21:20 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 05 Sep 2025 09:01:17 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 05 Sep 2025 09:01:17 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 05 Sep 2025 09:01:15 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 05 Sep 2025 09:01:15 GMT

Issued at 200 AM PDT Fri Sep 05 2025 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 050900 TCDEP2 Post-Tropical Cyclone Lorena Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122025 200 AM PDT Fri Sep 05 2025 Lorena has not produced organized convection near the center for the last 18 h, and since the center is located over sea surface temperatures between 24-25C there is little chance that convection will re-develop. While the latest scatterometer overpasses missed the center, satellite intensity estimates are quickly decreasing and are now in the 25-35 kt range. Based on this, Lorena has degenerated to a remnant low with winds near 30 kt. The system should continue to weaken over the cold water, with dissipation forecast by 72 h. Lorena has moved little since the last advisory. Track model guidance indicates that the remnant low should drift northward for the next 12 h or so, followed by a slow motion toward the northwest and then west-northwest. The new forecast track is similar to, but a little south of, the previous track. While Lorena is now a remnant low, the heavy rainfall threat continues. Abundant moisture continues to stream northeastward away from Lorena, and a surface trough seen in scatterometer data over the Gulf of California between Loreto and Guymas is triggering a large area of convection at this time. Significant rainfall and flash flooding has already occurred over portions of Baja California Sur, and the risk of life-threatening flash flooding will continue across portions of Baja California Sur and Sonora through today, and southern Arizona and New Mexico through Saturday. This is the last advisory on Lorena by the National Hurricane Center. For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php Rainfall forecasts for the United States can be found at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml and outlooks of flash flood risks can be found at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php For rainfall forecasts in northwestern Mexico, please see products from the Meteorological Service of Mexico. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall associated with Lorena will continue to impact Baja California Sur and Sonora Mexico through tonight, which will result in areas of life-threatening flash floods and mudslides across northwest Mexico. 2. Moisture from Lorena will contribute to heavy rainfall concerns across Arizona and New Mexico through Saturday. Isolated to scattered instances of flash flooding are possible across Arizona into Saturday. 3. Life-threatening surf and rip current conditions will affect portions of the western coast of Baja California Sur through today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0900Z 24.5N 115.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 05/1800Z 24.7N 115.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 06/0600Z 25.1N 115.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 06/1800Z 25.4N 115.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 07/0600Z 25.8N 116.7W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 07/1800Z 26.1N 117.7W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 05 2025 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 050859 PWSEP2 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LORENA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122025 0900 UTC FRI SEP 05 2025 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LORENA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 25N 115W 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 05 2025 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 050859 TCMEP2 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LORENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122025 0900 UTC FRI SEP 05 2025 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 115.0W AT 05/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 0 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 115.0W AT 05/0900Z AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 115.0W FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 24.7N 115.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 25.1N 115.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 25.4N 115.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 25.8N 116.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 26.1N 117.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.5N 115.0W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Issued at 200 AM PDT Fri Sep 05 2025 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 050859 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Lorena Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122025 200 AM PDT Fri Sep 05 2025 ...LORENA DEGENERATES TO A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE AREA... ...MOST IMPORTANTLY, THE RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES FOR BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR AND SONORA THROUGH TODAY... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.5N 115.0W ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM W OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in Baja California Sur and Sonora, Mexico, should continue to monitor the risk of heavy rainfall and flash flooding associated with Lorena. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Lorena was located near latitude 24.5 North, longitude 115.0 West. The post-tropical cyclone is currently nearly stationary. A slow north-northwestward to northwestward motion is expected through early Saturday, followed by a turn toward the west-northwest over the weekend. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast, and the remnant low is expected to dissipate by late Sunday or Sunday night. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Lorena can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC. RAINFALL: Bands of heavy rainfall will continue to impact Baja California Sur and Sonora Mexico through today. Additional rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches, with maximum storm total amounts of 12 inches, are possible across portions of Baja California Sur, far southeast Baja California, southwestern Sonora, and northern Sinaloa through tonight. This will bring the risk of life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in areas of higher terrain. Elsewhere across Mexico, 2 to 4 inches of rain, with isolated totals up to 6 inches, are expected across the remainder of Sonora. These amounts will lead to isolated to scattered instances of flash flooding. Across the southwestern United States, 1 to 2 inches of rain, with isolated totals up to 4 inches, are expected across portions of Arizona and New Mexico through Saturday, bringing the potential for isolated to scattered flash flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Lorena, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Swells generated by Lorena will continue affecting portions of the west coast of Baja California Sur through today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last advisory on Lorena by the National Hurricane Center. For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php Rainfall forecasts for the United States can be found at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml and outlooks of flash flood risks can be found at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php For rainfall forecasts in northwestern Mexico, please see products from the Meteorological Service of Mexico. $$ Forecaster Beven

...LORENA DEGENERATES TO A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE AREA... ...MOST IMPORTANTLY, THE RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES FOR BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR AND SONORA THROUGH TODAY... As of 2:00 AM PDT Fri Sep 05 the center of Lorena was located near 24.5, -115.0 with movement at mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 1100 PM HST Thu Sep 04 2025 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 050859 TCDEP1 Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112025 1100 PM HST Thu Sep 04 2025 The satellite presentation of Kiko has slowly deteriorated this evening, with the eye remaining mostly obscured by a central dense overcast with cloud top temperatures of -65 to -80C. A timely 05/0313Z WSFM microwave pass was helpful in locating the low-level center of Kiko, with the image also showing hints that an outer eyewall may be forming as part of an eyewall replacement cycle, which is possible considering the favorable environmental conditions the cyclone is traversing at the moment. The most recent conventional satellite images seem to lend credence to this possibility of an eyewall replacement cycle, with an eye beginning to re-develop and a deep convective ring developing around it. The most recent subjective Dvorak current intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB were 6.0/115 kt and 5.5/102 kt respectively, while the objective AiDT and ADT estimates from UW-CIMSS have ranged between 98 and 115 kt through the evening. Based on a blend of these data and accounting for recent satellite trends, the initial intensity has been held at 110 kt for this advisory, with Kiko remaining a strong category 3 hurricane. Kiko is moving due west, or 270 degrees, at 8 kt. A gradual turn toward the west-northwest is expected to begin later tonight or Friday, as the western extent of a subtropical ridge to the north of the cyclone is eroded by developing upper-level low north of Hawaii. This general west-northwestward motion along with a gradual increase in forward speed is forecast through the weekend and into early next week, as Kiko moves along the southwest periphery of the subtropical ridge to the northeast and toward a westward moving upper-level low to the north and northwest of the Hawaiian Islands. The latest track forecast is slightly south of the previous forecast through day 3 due to a delay in Kiko’s west-northwest turn, then very similar to the previous track on days 4 and 5. The track forecast is closest to the TVCE and EMXI aids and to the south of the HCCA and FSSE consensus. Kiko will remain over warm waters of 27–28C for the next 24 hours, while influenced by light northeasterly vertical wind shear, although the cyclone will remain in a drier than optimal mid-level environment. Despite the dry mid-level airmass Kiko will be moving through, the other factors appear favorable for some slight intensification, provided that the eyewall replacement cycle which is likely ongoing, completes. From 24 hours to 60 hours, Kiko will move over slightly cooler waters of 26 to 27C and into a drier mid-level environment with humidity levels below 50 percent. These less favorable conditions should lead to gradual weakening of the system, despite the continued very light vertical wind shear. Beginning on day 3 and continuing through day 5, the cyclone will be move over cooler water near or slightly below 26C, with west-southwesterly vertical wind shear ramping up steadily to more than 30 kt by day 5, and mid-level moisture will plummet below 40 percent. The increasingly hostile environment should lead to rapid weakening of Kiko as the cyclone approaches the Hawaiian Islands from the east-southeast. The official intensity forecast has been lowered slightly from the previous advisory cycle, but remains on the higher end of the intensity aids through 60 hours, due to the continued potential for Kiko to develop annular characteristics. The intensity forecast then trends closer middle of the intensity consensus envelop by days 3 through 5, with Kiko forecast to be a tropical storm by day 5 as it moves very close to the eastern end of the Hawaiian Island chain. Key Messages: 1. Kiko is forecast to approach the Hawaiian Islands during the early to the middle portion of next week. The risk of direct impacts from wind and rainfall is increasing. However, it is too soon to determine the exact location or magnitude of these impacts, and interests there should continue to monitor the progress of this storm. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0900Z 13.9N 136.2W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 05/1800Z 14.2N 137.4W 115 KT 130 MPH 24H 06/0600Z 14.7N 139.3W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 06/1800Z 15.3N 141.2W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 07/0600Z 16.0N 143.1W 100 KT 115 MPH 60H 07/1800Z 16.8N 145.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 08/0600Z 17.7N 147.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 09/0600Z 19.7N 151.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 10/0600Z 21.4N 155.9W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Jelsema (CPHC)

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 05 2025 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 050858 PWSEP1 HURRICANE KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112025 0900 UTC FRI SEP 05 2025 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 136.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 110 KTS...125 MPH...205 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 140W 34 1 79(80) 18(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) 15N 140W 50 X 41(41) 45(86) 1(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) 15N 140W 64 X 17(17) 51(68) 1(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 23(26) 23(49) 1(50) X(50) 15N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) X(12) X(12) 15N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 17(21) 2(23) X(23) 20N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) X(10) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 57(67) 2(69) 20N 150W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 31(32) 1(33) 20N 150W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) X(13) 20N 151W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 58(62) 4(66) 20N 151W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 28(28) 3(31) 20N 151W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 1(14) BUOY 51004 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 2(19) BUOY 51004 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 20N 154W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 18(36) 20N 154W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 20N 154W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) HILO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 14(21) HILO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) HILO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) BRADSHAW AAF 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 18N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) SOUTH POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) 21N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 20(24) 21N 156W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 21N 156W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) KAILUA-KONA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) KAHULUI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 17(20) KAHULUI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) KAHULUI 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 21N 158W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) BARKING SANDS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) HANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 19(23) HANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) HANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) LANAI CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) LANAI CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) KAUNAKAKAI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) KAUNAKAKAI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) HONOLULU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) JOINT BASE PHH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) LIHUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 20N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NIIHAU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 21N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER JELSEMA (CPHC)

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 05 2025 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 050858 TCMEP1 HURRICANE KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112025 0900 UTC FRI SEP 05 2025 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 136.2W AT 05/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. 4 M SEAS....120NE 120SE 105SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 136.2W AT 05/0900Z AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 135.8W FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 14.2N 137.4W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 35NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 14.7N 139.3W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 35NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 15.3N 141.2W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 35NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 16.0N 143.1W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 35NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 16.8N 145.1W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 35NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 17.7N 147.2W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 35NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 19.7N 151.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 21.4N 155.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.9N 136.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/1500Z $$ FORECASTER JELSEMA (CPHC)

Issued at 1100 PM HST Thu Sep 04 2025 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 050858 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Kiko Advisory Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112025 1100 PM HST Thu Sep 04 2025 ...KIKO REMAINS A STRONG CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE WELL TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HAWAII... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.9N 136.2W ABOUT 1310 MI...2110 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII ABOUT 1515 MI...2440 KM ESE OF HONOLULU HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should monitor the progress of Kiko. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kiko was located near latitude 13.9 North, longitude 136.2 West. Kiko is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h). A gradual turn toward the west-northwest is expected later tonight or Friday, with this motion forecast to continue through the weekend with a slight increase in forward speed. Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts. Kiko is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some strengthening is possible tonight and Friday, followed by slow weakening Friday night through the weekend. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 955 mb (28.20 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Kiko can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC. SURF: Swells generated by Hurricane Kiko could begin reaching the Hawaiian Islands towards the end of this weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products by the National Weather Service in Honolulu, Hawaii. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST. $$ Forecaster Jelsema (CPHC)

...KIKO REMAINS A STRONG CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE WELL TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HAWAII... As of 11:00 PM HST Thu Sep 04 the center of Kiko was located near 13.9, -136.2 with movement W at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 955 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 125 mph.

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Fri Sep 05 2025 Valid 081200Z - 131200Z ...DISCUSSION... Upper-level ridging within the West will slowly shift into the Plains this weekend and into perhaps the middle of next week. Modest to moderate mid-level flow will generally continue across the Midwest/Northeast. In the West, current guidance shows a trough slowly making progress east next week. Model guidance has shown a high degree of variability with regard to how this western trough will evolve through time. Expansive surface high pressure will be present in parts of the Plains and points eastward. With time, this high will move east and promote southerly return flow across the Plains. This process will accelerate as the western trough approaches. While some strong to severe storms will be possible as moisture returns northward, the timing and location of this potential largely depends on where surface boundaries set up and where smaller scale perturbations will eject into the Plains. The predictability of these features remains low at this time. Read more