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Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 05 2025 514 WTPZ22 KNHC 050237 TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM LORENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122025 0300 UTC FRI SEP 05 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 115.1W AT 05/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. 4 M SEAS.... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 115.1W AT 05/0300Z AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 115.0W FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 25.0N 115.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 25.3N 115.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 25.7N 115.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 26.1N 116.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 26.5N 117.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.6N 115.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

Kentucky livestock farmers are feeding hay early as pastures have stopped growing due to the dry conditions. WKYT (Kentucky). Sept. 4, 2025.

Level 4 water use restrictions have been implemented in Exeter, New Hampshire, as local river levels decline. Under the restrictions, water lawns, washing cars, and washing outdoor spaces will be limited. Watering crops and animals is still allowed. WMUR9 ABC (New Hampshire). Sept. 4, 2025.

The Ipswich water department issued a ban on all outdoor water uses, starting Sept. 4. The area is under severe drought conditions, with low local streamflows and declining reservoir storage. Water bans will be enforced by the police department and the water department. Outdoor uses that are allowed include those for health or safety, agricultural purposes, and core functions of business. The Local News (Massachusetts). Sept. 4, 2025.

Dams and wells in Clinton County, New York, have been drying up. One dam that supplies water for West Chazy firefighters is nearly empty. A transport company in Chazy has been filling up people's private wells to help them meet basic needs such as doing laundry at home. One resident had been using a laundromat since she had no domestic supply. NBC5 (Vermont). Sept. 4, 2025.

Pasture have been short on a Belmont County, Ohio, farm for the past month. The second hay crop on the farm had poor nutrient quality. WTOV9 FOX (Ohio). Sept. 4, 2025.

Livestock farmers in Vermont report needing to purchase feed and haul water as the entire state is under moderate or severe drought. A farmer in Middlebury bought 2,000 tons of corn from a neighbor as his supply ran out. The corn cost around $100,000 not including the time and labor of harvesting the corn himself. The farm had not had to purchase feed since 1965. Several streamwater gauges and wells are at record lows. A dairy farmer in Orwell has dry wells, so he is hauling up to 5,000 gallons of water per day from a creek for his cattle. He said that some farmers in the area are reporting daily losses of 10 pounds of milk per cow due to the heat. Other farmers have not been able to get a third cutting of hay. VTDigger (Vermont). Sept. 4, 2025.

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 PM CDT Thu Sep 04 2025 Valid 050100Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected tonight. ...Southwest/south-central KS... A sharpening cold front will sweep southward across KS tonight. Mostly elevated convection should increase to the cool side of this undercutting boundary, mainly during the early morning/pre-dawn hours. Initially steep mid-level lapse rates and adequate MUCAPE could support a few storms capable of producing small hail and locally strong gusts amid strengthening low-level northerlies. Overall severe potential still appears fairly low. ..Grams.. 09/05/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 PM CDT Thu Sep 04 2025 Valid 050100Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected tonight. ...Southwest/south-central KS... A sharpening cold front will sweep southward across KS tonight. Mostly elevated convection should increase to the cool side of this undercutting boundary, mainly during the early morning/pre-dawn hours. Initially steep mid-level lapse rates and adequate MUCAPE could support a few storms capable of producing small hail and locally strong gusts amid strengthening low-level northerlies. Overall severe potential still appears fairly low. ..Grams.. 09/05/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 PM CDT Thu Sep 04 2025 Valid 050100Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected tonight. ...Southwest/south-central KS... A sharpening cold front will sweep southward across KS tonight. Mostly elevated convection should increase to the cool side of this undercutting boundary, mainly during the early morning/pre-dawn hours. Initially steep mid-level lapse rates and adequate MUCAPE could support a few storms capable of producing small hail and locally strong gusts amid strengthening low-level northerlies. Overall severe potential still appears fairly low. ..Grams.. 09/05/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 PM CDT Thu Sep 04 2025 Valid 050100Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected tonight. ...Southwest/south-central KS... A sharpening cold front will sweep southward across KS tonight. Mostly elevated convection should increase to the cool side of this undercutting boundary, mainly during the early morning/pre-dawn hours. Initially steep mid-level lapse rates and adequate MUCAPE could support a few storms capable of producing small hail and locally strong gusts amid strengthening low-level northerlies. Overall severe potential still appears fairly low. ..Grams.. 09/05/2025 Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 04 Sep 2025 20:35:26 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 04 Sep 2025 21:27:13 GMT

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Sep 4 23:31:02 UTC 2025.

No watches are valid as of Thu Sep 4 23:31:02 UTC 2025.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 042313
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Thu Sep 4 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Kiko, located in the East Pacific basin well east-southeast of the
Hawaiian Islands. Kiko is expected to cross into the central
Pacific basin Friday night.

The National Hurricane Center is also issuing advisories on
Tropical Storm Lorena, located in the East Pacific basin just off
the west coast of Baja California Sur.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Jelsema

MD 2034 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA AND EXTREME NORTHWESTERN IOWA
Mesoscale Discussion 2034 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Thu Sep 04 2025 Areas affected...portions of southeastern South Dakota into far southwestern Minnesota and extreme northwestern Iowa Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 042156Z - 042330Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Storms may continue to intensify over the next few hours and produce isolated severe gusts. DISCUSSION...Multicellular convection is developing along a low-level confluence zone, immediately ahead of a mid-level trough and associated 120 kt 300 mb jet streak. These storms are developing amid a strongly sheared/forced environment, characterized by strong vertical flow fields. The FSD VAD profiler shows show up to 50 kts of of west-northwesterly flow at or just below 700 mb. As such, any efficient downward momentum may support strong surface wind gusts, a few of which could approach severe limits. The primary limitation for a more robust severe threat is scant buoyancy, and given the expected isolated nature of the severe threat, a WW issuance is not expected. ..Squitieri/Mosier.. 09/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...ABR... LAT...LON 43429771 44389741 44989690 45109634 44929507 44469431 43859408 43369419 42969486 42889555 42919652 43029707 43429771 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more

MD 2033 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN MARYLAND...EASTERN VIRGINIA...AND NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA
Mesoscale Discussion 2033 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0439 PM CDT Thu Sep 04 2025 Areas affected...portions of eastern Maryland...eastern Virginia...and northern North Carolina Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 042139Z - 042315Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A few damaging gusts may accompany the stronger storms for a few more hours, before storms weaken with the onset of nocturnal cooling. DISCUSSION...Multiple strong thunderstorms persist ahead of a surface cold front over northern North Carolina into eastern Virginia/Maryland. With diurnal heating continuing along the East Coast, temperatures are in the 80s F, amid low to upper 60s F dewpoints, yielding 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE despite poor mid-level lapse rates (per 21Z mesoanalysis). The current thinking is that these storms may persist for a few more hours, accompanied by strong to occasionally damaging wind gusts, and an instance or two of hail cannot be ruled out. With time, storms should begin to weaken as nocturnal cooling increases convective inhibition and CAPE weakens. ..Squitieri/Mosier.. 09/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RAH...RNK... LAT...LON 38157599 36547748 35887854 35717910 35747958 35867976 36087968 37487846 39357715 39577683 39777612 39557577 38967570 38157599 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 04 Sep 2025 20:35:26 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 04 Sep 2025 21:27:13 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 04 Sep 2025 21:21:07 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 04 Sep 2025 21:21:07 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 04 Sep 2025 20:57:53 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 04 Sep 2025 20:57:53 GMT