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Issued at 1100 AM HST Thu Sep 04 2025 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 042056 TCDEP1 Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112025 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1100 AM HST Thu Sep 04 2025 Recent IR satellite imagery indicates Kiko's presentation is improving as the previous eyewall replacement cycle (EWRC) process is likely in its final stages of concluding, with the eye beginning to clear out. Latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB remain at T6.0/115 kt, with objective intensity estimates only starting to increase again. Thus, the initial intensity for now will remain 115 knots. Now that Kiko is completing its EWRC, some reintensification is possible. The overall environment remains favorable, with sea-surface temperatures (SST) remaining between 27-28 C with modest northeasterly shear. Previous forecasts from the interpolated intensity aids were below the official NHC forecast. However, this area of the Pacific has historically had a low bias when it comes to the intensity forecasts when tropical cyclones develop a more annular structure, which the current environment is favorable for. As a result, the previous forecast was generally maintained over the first 72 hours, above the majority of the guidance. Beyond 72 hours, southwesterly shear increases quickly, and the hurricane will move over sub-26 C SSTs. This should hasten weakening towards the end of the forecast, which falls back in line with the intensity consensus aids. Kiko will ride the southern periphery of a broad upper ridge situated over the northern Pacific leading to a continued west to west-northwest heading through the end of the week and weekend with a forward propagation likely to settle between 8-12 kts over this time frame. By early next week, the forward speed will increase to 10-15 kts, with the hurricane moving a bit more poleward as it approaches the Hawaiian Islands, as an upper trough to the northwest of the islands erodes the western flank of the ridge. This forecast remains close to the consensus guidance and just a little faster than the previous NHC forecast. Key Messages: 1. Kiko is forecast to approach the Hawaiian Islands during the early to the middle portion of next week. The risk of direct impacts from wind and rainfall is increasing. However, it is too soon to determine the exact location or magnitude of these impacts, and interests there should continue to monitor the progress of this storm. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/2100Z 13.9N 134.6W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 05/0600Z 14.1N 135.9W 120 KT 140 MPH 24H 05/1800Z 14.5N 137.6W 125 KT 145 MPH 36H 06/0600Z 15.0N 139.5W 120 KT 140 MPH 48H 06/1800Z 15.7N 141.4W 115 KT 130 MPH 60H 07/0600Z 16.3N 143.3W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 07/1800Z 17.1N 145.3W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 08/1800Z 18.7N 149.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 09/1800Z 20.3N 154.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Kleebauer/Papin

Issued at 1100 AM HST Thu Sep 04 2025 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 042055 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Kiko Advisory Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112025 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1100 AM HST Thu Sep 04 2025 ...KIKO STILL A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE AND COULD BECOME A LITTLE STRONGER... ...INTEREST IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR KIKO'S PROGRESS... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.9N 134.6W ABOUT 1410 MI...2270 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII ABOUT 1615 MI...2600 KM ESE OF HONOLULU HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...951 MB...28.09 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should monitor the progress of Kiko. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kiko was located near latitude 13.9 North, longitude 134.6 West. Kiko is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through tonight, followed by a turn to the west-northwest on Friday through the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Kiko is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in intensity are expected in the next two to three days, but Kiko is expected to remain a major hurricane through the weekend. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 951 mb (28.09 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Kiko can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC. SURF: Swells generated by Hurricane Kiko could begin reaching the Hawaiian Islands towards the end of this weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products by the National Weather Service in Honolulu, Hawaii. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST. $$ Forecaster Kleebauer/Papin

...KIKO STILL A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE AND COULD BECOME A LITTLE STRONGER... ...INTEREST IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR KIKO'S PROGRESS... As of 11:00 AM HST Thu Sep 04 the center of Kiko was located near 13.9, -134.6 with movement W at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 951 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 130 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 04 2025 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 042053 PWSEP1 HURRICANE KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112025 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 2100 UTC THU SEP 04 2025 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 134.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 115 KTS...130 MPH...215 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 135W 34 48 2(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) 15N 135W 50 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 140W 34 X 6( 6) 81(87) 9(96) 1(97) X(97) X(97) 15N 140W 50 X 1( 1) 55(56) 24(80) 1(81) X(81) X(81) 15N 140W 64 X X( X) 33(33) 26(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 35(40) 2(42) 1(43) 15N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 1(10) X(10) 15N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 12(32) 1(33) 20N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) 20N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 15N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 1(11) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 49(50) 18(68) 20N 150W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 14(35) 20N 150W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 8(16) 25N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 20N 151W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 34(34) 30(64) 20N 151W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 20(31) 20N 151W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) BUOY 51004 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 12(21) BUOY 51004 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 20N 154W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 32(37) 20N 154W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 20N 154W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) HILO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 21(23) HILO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) HILO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) BRADSHAW AAF 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 18N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) SOUTH POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 21N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 21N 156W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) KAILUA-KONA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) KAILUA-KONA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) KAHULUI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) KAHULUI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) KAHULUI 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 21N 158W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) HANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) HANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) HANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) LANAI CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) KAUNAKAKAI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) HONOLULU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) JOINT BASE PHH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) $$ FORECASTER KLEEBAUER/PAPIN

Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 04 2025 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 042052 TCMEP1 HURRICANE KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112025 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 2100 UTC THU SEP 04 2025 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 134.6W AT 04/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 951 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 35NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. 4 M SEAS....150NE 90SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 134.6W AT 04/2100Z AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 134.2W FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 14.1N 135.9W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 35NE 35SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 65SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 14.5N 137.6W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 35NE 35SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 15.0N 139.5W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 35NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 15.7N 141.4W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 35NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 65NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 16.3N 143.3W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 35NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 17.1N 145.3W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 35NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 18.7N 149.1W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 25SE 25SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 20.3N 154.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 65NE 40SE 35SW 60NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.9N 134.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z $$ FORECASTER KLEEBAUER/PAPIN

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0334 PM CDT Thu Sep 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z A negatively-tilted upper-level shortwave trough will continue to track slowly northward across the Northwest Day 3/Saturday into Day 4/Sunday. A larger upper low will move into the Northwest late Day 4/Sunday through Day 6/Tuesday, with upper-level troughing likely deepening over the West Coast through mid-next week. Upper-level troughing may develop over most of the West mid to late next week, but forecast uncertainty remains high on the progression of the upper-level trough over the West/West Coast. Isolated to scattered mixed wet/dry thunderstorms are likely in portions of the Northwest and northern Rockies/Great Basin on Day 3/Saturday - Day 4/Sunday, with the Cascades having the best chances. Onshore flow will bring showers, higher RH, and cooler temperatures to the Northwest and eventually the northern Rockies and northwest California beginning late Day 4/Sunday and likely lasting through much of the outlook period. This pattern change and potential preceding wetting rain in areas on Day 1/Thursday - Day 2/Friday will limit the impacts of potential ignitions on Day 3/Saturday - Day 4/Sunday and slow fire activity across the northwestern US. However, if the upper-level trough slows or changes track in the coming days, areas may need to be introduced. Dry/windy conditions are likely to develop across portions of the central/southern Intermountain West on Day 4/Sunday - Day 7/Wednesday as upper-level troughing moves into the West. Fuel conditions are vastly improved after the last monsoonal surge. However, the environment will be monitored, especially in areas that received less wetting rain with the last monsoon surge, for potential overlap of critical winds/RH and receptive fuels. ..Nauslar.. 09/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0334 PM CDT Thu Sep 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z A negatively-tilted upper-level shortwave trough will continue to track slowly northward across the Northwest Day 3/Saturday into Day 4/Sunday. A larger upper low will move into the Northwest late Day 4/Sunday through Day 6/Tuesday, with upper-level troughing likely deepening over the West Coast through mid-next week. Upper-level troughing may develop over most of the West mid to late next week, but forecast uncertainty remains high on the progression of the upper-level trough over the West/West Coast. Isolated to scattered mixed wet/dry thunderstorms are likely in portions of the Northwest and northern Rockies/Great Basin on Day 3/Saturday - Day 4/Sunday, with the Cascades having the best chances. Onshore flow will bring showers, higher RH, and cooler temperatures to the Northwest and eventually the northern Rockies and northwest California beginning late Day 4/Sunday and likely lasting through much of the outlook period. This pattern change and potential preceding wetting rain in areas on Day 1/Thursday - Day 2/Friday will limit the impacts of potential ignitions on Day 3/Saturday - Day 4/Sunday and slow fire activity across the northwestern US. However, if the upper-level trough slows or changes track in the coming days, areas may need to be introduced. Dry/windy conditions are likely to develop across portions of the central/southern Intermountain West on Day 4/Sunday - Day 7/Wednesday as upper-level troughing moves into the West. Fuel conditions are vastly improved after the last monsoonal surge. However, the environment will be monitored, especially in areas that received less wetting rain with the last monsoon surge, for potential overlap of critical winds/RH and receptive fuels. ..Nauslar.. 09/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0334 PM CDT Thu Sep 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z A negatively-tilted upper-level shortwave trough will continue to track slowly northward across the Northwest Day 3/Saturday into Day 4/Sunday. A larger upper low will move into the Northwest late Day 4/Sunday through Day 6/Tuesday, with upper-level troughing likely deepening over the West Coast through mid-next week. Upper-level troughing may develop over most of the West mid to late next week, but forecast uncertainty remains high on the progression of the upper-level trough over the West/West Coast. Isolated to scattered mixed wet/dry thunderstorms are likely in portions of the Northwest and northern Rockies/Great Basin on Day 3/Saturday - Day 4/Sunday, with the Cascades having the best chances. Onshore flow will bring showers, higher RH, and cooler temperatures to the Northwest and eventually the northern Rockies and northwest California beginning late Day 4/Sunday and likely lasting through much of the outlook period. This pattern change and potential preceding wetting rain in areas on Day 1/Thursday - Day 2/Friday will limit the impacts of potential ignitions on Day 3/Saturday - Day 4/Sunday and slow fire activity across the northwestern US. However, if the upper-level trough slows or changes track in the coming days, areas may need to be introduced. Dry/windy conditions are likely to develop across portions of the central/southern Intermountain West on Day 4/Sunday - Day 7/Wednesday as upper-level troughing moves into the West. Fuel conditions are vastly improved after the last monsoonal surge. However, the environment will be monitored, especially in areas that received less wetting rain with the last monsoon surge, for potential overlap of critical winds/RH and receptive fuels. ..Nauslar.. 09/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0334 PM CDT Thu Sep 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z A negatively-tilted upper-level shortwave trough will continue to track slowly northward across the Northwest Day 3/Saturday into Day 4/Sunday. A larger upper low will move into the Northwest late Day 4/Sunday through Day 6/Tuesday, with upper-level troughing likely deepening over the West Coast through mid-next week. Upper-level troughing may develop over most of the West mid to late next week, but forecast uncertainty remains high on the progression of the upper-level trough over the West/West Coast. Isolated to scattered mixed wet/dry thunderstorms are likely in portions of the Northwest and northern Rockies/Great Basin on Day 3/Saturday - Day 4/Sunday, with the Cascades having the best chances. Onshore flow will bring showers, higher RH, and cooler temperatures to the Northwest and eventually the northern Rockies and northwest California beginning late Day 4/Sunday and likely lasting through much of the outlook period. This pattern change and potential preceding wetting rain in areas on Day 1/Thursday - Day 2/Friday will limit the impacts of potential ignitions on Day 3/Saturday - Day 4/Sunday and slow fire activity across the northwestern US. However, if the upper-level trough slows or changes track in the coming days, areas may need to be introduced. Dry/windy conditions are likely to develop across portions of the central/southern Intermountain West on Day 4/Sunday - Day 7/Wednesday as upper-level troughing moves into the West. Fuel conditions are vastly improved after the last monsoonal surge. However, the environment will be monitored, especially in areas that received less wetting rain with the last monsoon surge, for potential overlap of critical winds/RH and receptive fuels. ..Nauslar.. 09/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0334 PM CDT Thu Sep 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z A negatively-tilted upper-level shortwave trough will continue to track slowly northward across the Northwest Day 3/Saturday into Day 4/Sunday. A larger upper low will move into the Northwest late Day 4/Sunday through Day 6/Tuesday, with upper-level troughing likely deepening over the West Coast through mid-next week. Upper-level troughing may develop over most of the West mid to late next week, but forecast uncertainty remains high on the progression of the upper-level trough over the West/West Coast. Isolated to scattered mixed wet/dry thunderstorms are likely in portions of the Northwest and northern Rockies/Great Basin on Day 3/Saturday - Day 4/Sunday, with the Cascades having the best chances. Onshore flow will bring showers, higher RH, and cooler temperatures to the Northwest and eventually the northern Rockies and northwest California beginning late Day 4/Sunday and likely lasting through much of the outlook period. This pattern change and potential preceding wetting rain in areas on Day 1/Thursday - Day 2/Friday will limit the impacts of potential ignitions on Day 3/Saturday - Day 4/Sunday and slow fire activity across the northwestern US. However, if the upper-level trough slows or changes track in the coming days, areas may need to be introduced. Dry/windy conditions are likely to develop across portions of the central/southern Intermountain West on Day 4/Sunday - Day 7/Wednesday as upper-level troughing moves into the West. Fuel conditions are vastly improved after the last monsoonal surge. However, the environment will be monitored, especially in areas that received less wetting rain with the last monsoon surge, for potential overlap of critical winds/RH and receptive fuels. ..Nauslar.. 09/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0334 PM CDT Thu Sep 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z A negatively-tilted upper-level shortwave trough will continue to track slowly northward across the Northwest Day 3/Saturday into Day 4/Sunday. A larger upper low will move into the Northwest late Day 4/Sunday through Day 6/Tuesday, with upper-level troughing likely deepening over the West Coast through mid-next week. Upper-level troughing may develop over most of the West mid to late next week, but forecast uncertainty remains high on the progression of the upper-level trough over the West/West Coast. Isolated to scattered mixed wet/dry thunderstorms are likely in portions of the Northwest and northern Rockies/Great Basin on Day 3/Saturday - Day 4/Sunday, with the Cascades having the best chances. Onshore flow will bring showers, higher RH, and cooler temperatures to the Northwest and eventually the northern Rockies and northwest California beginning late Day 4/Sunday and likely lasting through much of the outlook period. This pattern change and potential preceding wetting rain in areas on Day 1/Thursday - Day 2/Friday will limit the impacts of potential ignitions on Day 3/Saturday - Day 4/Sunday and slow fire activity across the northwestern US. However, if the upper-level trough slows or changes track in the coming days, areas may need to be introduced. Dry/windy conditions are likely to develop across portions of the central/southern Intermountain West on Day 4/Sunday - Day 7/Wednesday as upper-level troughing moves into the West. Fuel conditions are vastly improved after the last monsoonal surge. However, the environment will be monitored, especially in areas that received less wetting rain with the last monsoon surge, for potential overlap of critical winds/RH and receptive fuels. ..Nauslar.. 09/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0334 PM CDT Thu Sep 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z A negatively-tilted upper-level shortwave trough will continue to track slowly northward across the Northwest Day 3/Saturday into Day 4/Sunday. A larger upper low will move into the Northwest late Day 4/Sunday through Day 6/Tuesday, with upper-level troughing likely deepening over the West Coast through mid-next week. Upper-level troughing may develop over most of the West mid to late next week, but forecast uncertainty remains high on the progression of the upper-level trough over the West/West Coast. Isolated to scattered mixed wet/dry thunderstorms are likely in portions of the Northwest and northern Rockies/Great Basin on Day 3/Saturday - Day 4/Sunday, with the Cascades having the best chances. Onshore flow will bring showers, higher RH, and cooler temperatures to the Northwest and eventually the northern Rockies and northwest California beginning late Day 4/Sunday and likely lasting through much of the outlook period. This pattern change and potential preceding wetting rain in areas on Day 1/Thursday - Day 2/Friday will limit the impacts of potential ignitions on Day 3/Saturday - Day 4/Sunday and slow fire activity across the northwestern US. However, if the upper-level trough slows or changes track in the coming days, areas may need to be introduced. Dry/windy conditions are likely to develop across portions of the central/southern Intermountain West on Day 4/Sunday - Day 7/Wednesday as upper-level troughing moves into the West. Fuel conditions are vastly improved after the last monsoonal surge. However, the environment will be monitored, especially in areas that received less wetting rain with the last monsoon surge, for potential overlap of critical winds/RH and receptive fuels. ..Nauslar.. 09/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0334 PM CDT Thu Sep 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z A negatively-tilted upper-level shortwave trough will continue to track slowly northward across the Northwest Day 3/Saturday into Day 4/Sunday. A larger upper low will move into the Northwest late Day 4/Sunday through Day 6/Tuesday, with upper-level troughing likely deepening over the West Coast through mid-next week. Upper-level troughing may develop over most of the West mid to late next week, but forecast uncertainty remains high on the progression of the upper-level trough over the West/West Coast. Isolated to scattered mixed wet/dry thunderstorms are likely in portions of the Northwest and northern Rockies/Great Basin on Day 3/Saturday - Day 4/Sunday, with the Cascades having the best chances. Onshore flow will bring showers, higher RH, and cooler temperatures to the Northwest and eventually the northern Rockies and northwest California beginning late Day 4/Sunday and likely lasting through much of the outlook period. This pattern change and potential preceding wetting rain in areas on Day 1/Thursday - Day 2/Friday will limit the impacts of potential ignitions on Day 3/Saturday - Day 4/Sunday and slow fire activity across the northwestern US. However, if the upper-level trough slows or changes track in the coming days, areas may need to be introduced. Dry/windy conditions are likely to develop across portions of the central/southern Intermountain West on Day 4/Sunday - Day 7/Wednesday as upper-level troughing moves into the West. Fuel conditions are vastly improved after the last monsoonal surge. However, the environment will be monitored, especially in areas that received less wetting rain with the last monsoon surge, for potential overlap of critical winds/RH and receptive fuels. ..Nauslar.. 09/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0334 PM CDT Thu Sep 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z A negatively-tilted upper-level shortwave trough will continue to track slowly northward across the Northwest Day 3/Saturday into Day 4/Sunday. A larger upper low will move into the Northwest late Day 4/Sunday through Day 6/Tuesday, with upper-level troughing likely deepening over the West Coast through mid-next week. Upper-level troughing may develop over most of the West mid to late next week, but forecast uncertainty remains high on the progression of the upper-level trough over the West/West Coast. Isolated to scattered mixed wet/dry thunderstorms are likely in portions of the Northwest and northern Rockies/Great Basin on Day 3/Saturday - Day 4/Sunday, with the Cascades having the best chances. Onshore flow will bring showers, higher RH, and cooler temperatures to the Northwest and eventually the northern Rockies and northwest California beginning late Day 4/Sunday and likely lasting through much of the outlook period. This pattern change and potential preceding wetting rain in areas on Day 1/Thursday - Day 2/Friday will limit the impacts of potential ignitions on Day 3/Saturday - Day 4/Sunday and slow fire activity across the northwestern US. However, if the upper-level trough slows or changes track in the coming days, areas may need to be introduced. Dry/windy conditions are likely to develop across portions of the central/southern Intermountain West on Day 4/Sunday - Day 7/Wednesday as upper-level troughing moves into the West. Fuel conditions are vastly improved after the last monsoonal surge. However, the environment will be monitored, especially in areas that received less wetting rain with the last monsoon surge, for potential overlap of critical winds/RH and receptive fuels. ..Nauslar.. 09/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0334 PM CDT Thu Sep 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z A negatively-tilted upper-level shortwave trough will continue to track slowly northward across the Northwest Day 3/Saturday into Day 4/Sunday. A larger upper low will move into the Northwest late Day 4/Sunday through Day 6/Tuesday, with upper-level troughing likely deepening over the West Coast through mid-next week. Upper-level troughing may develop over most of the West mid to late next week, but forecast uncertainty remains high on the progression of the upper-level trough over the West/West Coast. Isolated to scattered mixed wet/dry thunderstorms are likely in portions of the Northwest and northern Rockies/Great Basin on Day 3/Saturday - Day 4/Sunday, with the Cascades having the best chances. Onshore flow will bring showers, higher RH, and cooler temperatures to the Northwest and eventually the northern Rockies and northwest California beginning late Day 4/Sunday and likely lasting through much of the outlook period. This pattern change and potential preceding wetting rain in areas on Day 1/Thursday - Day 2/Friday will limit the impacts of potential ignitions on Day 3/Saturday - Day 4/Sunday and slow fire activity across the northwestern US. However, if the upper-level trough slows or changes track in the coming days, areas may need to be introduced. Dry/windy conditions are likely to develop across portions of the central/southern Intermountain West on Day 4/Sunday - Day 7/Wednesday as upper-level troughing moves into the West. Fuel conditions are vastly improved after the last monsoonal surge. However, the environment will be monitored, especially in areas that received less wetting rain with the last monsoon surge, for potential overlap of critical winds/RH and receptive fuels. ..Nauslar.. 09/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0334 PM CDT Thu Sep 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z A negatively-tilted upper-level shortwave trough will continue to track slowly northward across the Northwest Day 3/Saturday into Day 4/Sunday. A larger upper low will move into the Northwest late Day 4/Sunday through Day 6/Tuesday, with upper-level troughing likely deepening over the West Coast through mid-next week. Upper-level troughing may develop over most of the West mid to late next week, but forecast uncertainty remains high on the progression of the upper-level trough over the West/West Coast. Isolated to scattered mixed wet/dry thunderstorms are likely in portions of the Northwest and northern Rockies/Great Basin on Day 3/Saturday - Day 4/Sunday, with the Cascades having the best chances. Onshore flow will bring showers, higher RH, and cooler temperatures to the Northwest and eventually the northern Rockies and northwest California beginning late Day 4/Sunday and likely lasting through much of the outlook period. This pattern change and potential preceding wetting rain in areas on Day 1/Thursday - Day 2/Friday will limit the impacts of potential ignitions on Day 3/Saturday - Day 4/Sunday and slow fire activity across the northwestern US. However, if the upper-level trough slows or changes track in the coming days, areas may need to be introduced. Dry/windy conditions are likely to develop across portions of the central/southern Intermountain West on Day 4/Sunday - Day 7/Wednesday as upper-level troughing moves into the West. Fuel conditions are vastly improved after the last monsoonal surge. However, the environment will be monitored, especially in areas that received less wetting rain with the last monsoon surge, for potential overlap of critical winds/RH and receptive fuels. ..Nauslar.. 09/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 04 Sep 2025 20:35:26 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 04 Sep 2025 20:35:26 GMT

Issued at 200 PM MST Thu Sep 04 2025 745 WTPZ42 KNHC 042034 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Lorena Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122025 200 PM MST Thu Sep 04 2025 Strong southwesterly wind shear and cold water temperatures have taken their toll on Lorena. The convection has completely fallen apart and detached itself from the low-level circulation today, leaving an exposed swirl that is evident on GOES-18 visible channels. An Air Force Reserve Reconnaissance Aircraft, which was just in the center, measured maximum 850-mb flight-level winds of 52 kt, which corresponds to about 42 kt at the surface. The central pressure is estimated at 996 mb based on dropsonde data from the aircraft. Additionally, a recent ASCAT pass showed an area of 35-40 kt winds, mostly in the NW quadrant. The initial intensity estimate, based on the aforementioned data, has been reduced to 45 kt. Confidence is high that the cyclone will continue to weaken as it moves over progressively colder water and into stronger southwesterly wind shear. The timing of when Lorena is forecast to weaken to a remnant low has been moved up to 24 h, but it could occur sooner, as most of the convection has already been sheared off well to the northeast of the low-level circulation. The latest NHC track forecast has been shifted slightly to the left, or slightly farther offshore of the Baja California peninsula, compared to the previous NHC forecast, closer to the latest models. Some large rainfall totals have already been observed across portions of Baja California Sur, and the risk of life-threatening flash flooding will continue across portions of the area through Friday. Abundant moisture will continue to stream northeastward away from the cyclone. Because of that, there is still a significant risk of heavy rainfall and flash flooding across portions of Baja California Sur, Sonora, southern Arizona and New Mexico. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall associated with Lorena will continue to impact Baja California Sur and Sonora Mexico through Friday. This will increase the risk of life-threatening flash floods and mudslides across northwest Mexico. 2. Moisture from Lorena will contribute to heavy rainfall concerns across Arizona and New Mexico through Saturday. Isolated to scattered instances of flash flooding are possible across Arizona into Saturday. 3. Life-threatening surf and rip current conditions will affect portions of the southern and western coasts of Baja California Sur during the next couple of days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/2100Z 24.6N 114.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 05/0600Z 25.0N 114.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 05/1800Z 25.4N 114.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 06/0600Z 25.9N 114.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 06/1800Z 26.3N 114.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 07/0600Z 26.7N 115.3W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hagen

Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 04 2025 751 FOPZ12 KNHC 042033 PWSEP2 TROPICAL STORM LORENA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122025 2100 UTC THU SEP 04 2025 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LORENA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 25N 115W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 25N 115W 50 3 X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER HAGEN

Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 04 2025 749 WTPZ22 KNHC 042033 TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM LORENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122025 2100 UTC THU SEP 04 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 114.8W AT 04/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 0SE 30SW 50NW. 4 M SEAS.... 60NE 30SE 45SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 114.8W AT 04/2100Z AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 114.6W FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 25.0N 114.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 25.4N 114.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 25.9N 114.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 26.3N 114.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 26.7N 115.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.6N 114.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z $$ FORECASTER HAGEN