Aggregator

WW 0205 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 205 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SPC..05/01/25 ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...CRP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 205 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC019-031-127-137-163-171-259-265-267-271-283-323-325-385-435- 463-465-479-507-012340- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BANDERA BLANCO DIMMIT EDWARDS FRIO GILLESPIE KENDALL KERR KIMBLE KINNEY LA SALLE MAVERICK MEDINA REAL SUTTON UVALDE VAL VERDE WEBB ZAVALA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0206 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 206 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NE PIT TO 25 WNW MRB. ..MOORE..05/01/25 ATTN...WFO...CTP...PBZ... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 206 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS PAC001-009-013-021-027-033-041-055-057-061-063-065-067-087-099- 109-119-020040- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BEDFORD BLAIR CAMBRIA CENTRE CLEARFIELD CUMBERLAND FRANKLIN FULTON HUNTINGDON INDIANA JEFFERSON JUNIATA MIFFLIN PERRY SNYDER UNION THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 0639 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR 2NORTHEAST ARKANSAS INTO THE LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY
Mesoscale Discussion 0639 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0619 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Areas affected...2Northeast Arkansas into the lower OH River Valley Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 012319Z - 020115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms may continue to pose a severe hail and damaging wind threat through the early evening hours. Watch issuance is not anticipated. DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorms developing along/ahead of a mid-level trough have been more intense and persistent than initially anticipated based on an environmental analysis. Over the past 1-2 hours, these thunderstorms have intensified within a subtle theta-e/buoyancy ridge extending from northeast AR into the lower OH River Valley with a 1.75 inch hail report noted over the past hour. Deep-layer wind shear within the base of the mid-level trough axis remains fairly marginal based on regional VWP observations (20-25 knots), however, the combination of sufficient deep-layer shear and augmented buoyancy have been adequate to promote thunderstorms with weak/transient mid-level mesocyclones in the stronger cells. Storms may continue to intensify to severe levels over the next 1-2 hours as they traverse the buoyancy ridge and prior to the onset of nocturnal cooling after 01 UTC. The stronger cells may be capable of 1-1.75 inch hail and damaging gusts, though the overall coverage and duration of the threat should remain sufficiently limited to preclude watch issuance. ..Moore/Smith.. 05/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF... LAT...LON 36839132 37329103 37969031 38688890 38878817 38758773 38498738 38218723 37978721 37618737 37418756 36088983 35699050 35659087 35679114 35829148 36049158 36289161 36839132 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

MD 0637 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 204...205... FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0637 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0548 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Areas affected...Portions of Southwest into Central Texas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 204...205... Valid 012248Z - 020015Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 204, 205 continues. SUMMARY...Scattered slow-moving severe thunderstorms will continue into the early-evening hours. Hail is the primary concern. DISCUSSION...Scattered slow-moving thunderstorms continue within a very high-instability air mass from the international border over southeast Terrell County to Leon County. Wind profiles favor storm splits and latest radar data supports this with several left-movers advancing north of the watch at times. Even so, the primary concern this evening will be for the east-west corridor to gradually sag south as the dominant updrafts should tend to drift more southerly. MRMS data suggests large, to very large hail is common with this activity. ..Darrow.. 05/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...MAF... LAT...LON 30330191 30590001 31139804 31489585 30389610 30039815 28770141 30330191 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.75-4.25 IN Read more

MD 0638 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 203... FOR SOUTHEAST OHIO INTO WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0638 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0550 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Areas affected...Southeast Ohio into western West Virginia Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 203... Valid 012250Z - 020045Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 203 continues. SUMMARY...WW 203 will be allowed to expire at 23 UTC, but a localized corridor of wind damage potential may persist downstream of a line of thunderstorms for the next 1-2 hours. New watch issuance is not anticipated. DISCUSSION...Radar imagery from KRLX shows a convective line that was once mostly outflow-dominant attempting to established a more well-balanced updraft/downdraft convergence zone as new convection develops along the leading edge of the cold pool. Although GOES IR imagery continues to show warming cloud top temperatures (indicative of a weakening trend), lightning trends over the past 20 minutes suggest new updrafts are beginning to intensify. The onset of nocturnal cooling is gradually diminishing the thermodynamic environment downstream of this line, but VWP observations from KRLX continues to sample around 20 knots of 0-1 km bulk shear with shear vectors oriented largely orthogonal to the cold pool. Consequently, some organization/intensification of this line segment appears possible as storms move northeast along the OH river. Given the thermodynamic trends, additional watch issuance is not anticipated, but sporadic damaging winds appear possible for the next couple of hours. ..Moore.. 05/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX... LAT...LON 38098280 38628270 38788262 39758142 39848079 39728049 39558033 39288028 39068036 38168205 38048238 38018257 38098280 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

MD 0636 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR TEXAS PANHANDLE...EXTREME NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO
Mesoscale Discussion 0636 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0529 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Areas affected...Texas Panhandle...extreme northeast New Mexico Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 012229Z - 020030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Scattered robust thunderstorms will increase in areal coverage this evening. Hail and wind appear likely with some of this activity. Severe thunderstorm watch may be warranted. DISCUSSION...Satellite imagery suggests a weak short-wave trough is digging southeast across southeast CO, ahead of a more significant 500mb speed max that will translate into eastern WY later tonight. This lead feature appears instrumental in recent uptick in convection across the higher terrain of extreme southern CO into northeast NM. While moisture is a bit scant across this region, strong shear and steep 0-3km lapse rates are favorable for maturing updrafts, and some potential for supercells. With time an expanding corridor of robust convection is expected to spread/develop southeast into the TX Panhandle. Forecast soundings suggest hail could be common, along with gusty winds. ..Darrow/Smith.. 05/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...ABQ... LAT...LON 36600295 36140042 34670098 35020325 35880408 36600295 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

MD 0635 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
Mesoscale Discussion 0635 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0519 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Areas affected...Mid-Mississippi River Valley to the southern Appalachians Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 012219Z - 020015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Sporadic large hail and damaging winds will be possible through the early evening hours from the Arklamiss region to the southern Appalachians. Watch issuance is not anticipated. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms developing along a diffuse residual frontal zone/differential heating boundary draped across the mid-MS River Valley to the southern Appalachians have shown signs of steady intensification over the past hour via cloud-top cooling and an increasing in vertically integrated ice. Temperatures warming into the low 80s to the south of the boundary coupled with mid/upper 60s dewpoints are supporting 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE across a broad swath of the region, and 30-35 knot mid-level flow is support adequate shear for some storm organization. However, weak low-level winds (generally less than 10 knots) and steep 0-3 km lapse rates are promoting rapid cold pool expansion that is limiting storm longevity to some degree and favoring multicellular modes. A few stronger storms will be capable of severe hail (1-1.5 inches in diameter) and damaging gusts - especially if a more consolidated, cold-pool driven cluster can become established. Overall, the severe threat is expected to remain sufficiently isolated to preclude watch issuance given regionally weak forcing for ascent. ..Moore/Smith.. 05/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK... LAT...LON 34868442 34358457 33978474 33748494 33398536 33188600 32678895 32648909 32539083 32579121 32699158 32979182 33209184 33469178 33689124 33879055 34838705 35078635 35228561 35318519 35298486 35148457 34868442 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

WW 0206 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 206 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NE PIT TO 25 WNW MRB. ..MOORE..05/01/25 ATTN...WFO...CTP...PBZ... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 206 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS PAC001-009-013-021-027-033-041-055-057-061-063-065-067-087-099- 109-119-020040- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BEDFORD BLAIR CAMBRIA CENTRE CLEARFIELD CUMBERLAND FRANKLIN FULTON HUNTINGDON INDIANA JEFFERSON JUNIATA MIFFLIN PERRY SNYDER UNION THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 206 SEVERE TSTM PA 012235Z - 020300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 206 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 635 PM EDT Thu May 1 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southern and Central Pennsylvania * Effective this Thursday evening from 635 PM until 1100 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Strong to severe storms in the vicinity of a warm front advancing northward will be capable of strong to severe gusts (55-70 mph) and large hail. This activity will spread northeastward through the Watch with a gradual weakening expected towards mid to late evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles north and south of a line from 45 miles south southwest of Dubois PA to 60 miles east southeast of State College PA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 203...WW 204...WW 205... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 22035. ...Smith Read more

WW 0207 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0207 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 207 SEVERE TSTM NM TX 012300Z - 020600Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 207 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 600 PM CDT Thu May 1 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northeast New Mexico Texas Panhandle * Effective this Thursday night and Friday morning from 600 PM until 100 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80 mph possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A linear cluster of cells will likely grow upscale into a linear band of storms as this activity intensifies and moves east-southeast across the Watch area this evening. Large hail and severe gusts will be possible with the more intense thunderstorms and surging outflow. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles north and south of a line from 45 miles southwest of Clayton NM to 55 miles north northeast of Childress TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 203...WW 204...WW 205...WW 206... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 29025. ...Smith Read more

WW 0206 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0206 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0205 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 205 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SPC..05/01/25 ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...CRP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 205 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC019-031-127-137-163-171-259-265-267-271-283-323-325-385-435- 463-465-479-507-012340- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BANDERA BLANCO DIMMIT EDWARDS FRIO GILLESPIE KENDALL KERR KIMBLE KINNEY LA SALLE MAVERICK MEDINA REAL SUTTON UVALDE VAL VERDE WEBB ZAVALA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0205 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 205 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SPC..05/01/25 ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...CRP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 205 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC019-031-127-137-163-171-259-265-267-271-283-323-325-385-435- 463-465-479-507-012340- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BANDERA BLANCO DIMMIT EDWARDS FRIO GILLESPIE KENDALL KERR KIMBLE KINNEY LA SALLE MAVERICK MEDINA REAL SUTTON UVALDE VAL VERDE WEBB ZAVALA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 205 SEVERE TSTM TX 012140Z - 020500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 205 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 440 PM CDT Thu May 1 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of South-Central and South Texas * Effective this Thursday afternoon from 440 PM until Midnight CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop through the late afternoon and into the evening. A very unstable airmass and adequate deep-layer shear will promote supercell development. Large to giant hail is possible with the stronger storms. By this evening, a few storms may congeal and move east of the Rio Grande into parts of south Texas, posing a risk for large hail and severe gusts. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles east and west of a line from 15 miles northwest of Junction TX to 50 miles west southwest of Laredo TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 203...WW 204... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector 31010. ...Smith Read more

WW 0204 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 204 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SPC..05/01/25 ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...HGX...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 204 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC021-027-041-051-053-099-145-281-287-299-309-319-331-333-395- 411-453-491-012340- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BASTROP BELL BRAZOS BURLESON BURNET CORYELL FALLS LAMPASAS LEE LLANO MCLENNAN MASON MILAM MILLS ROBERTSON SAN SABA TRAVIS WILLIAMSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0204 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 204 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SPC..05/01/25 ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...HGX...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 204 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC021-027-041-051-053-099-145-281-287-299-309-319-331-333-395- 411-453-491-012340- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BASTROP BELL BRAZOS BURLESON BURNET CORYELL FALLS LAMPASAS LEE LLANO MCLENNAN MASON MILAM MILLS ROBERTSON SAN SABA TRAVIS WILLIAMSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 204 SEVERE TSTM TX 011930Z - 020200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 204 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 230 PM CDT Thu May 1 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central Texas * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 230 PM until 900 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely SUMMARY...Isolated but intense thunderstorms are expected to form this afternoon in a very moist and unstable air mass. Slow-moving supercells capable of very large hail appear to be the main concern. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 40 statute miles north and south of a line from 115 miles west of Temple TX to 65 miles east southeast of Temple TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 203... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Hart Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook AMEND 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0503 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND ACROSS TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA.... AMENDED FOR INCREASED TORNADO PROBABILITIES ACROSS CENTRAL TX. ...SUMMARY... Lines and/or clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms are likely to impact parts of the Ohio Valley into lower Great Lakes, parts of the lower Mississippi Valley, and the southern Great Plains through tonight. Localized tornado risk has recently materialized across parts of central TX in proximity to a differential heating zone and a weakly confluent dryline. Several supercells ongoing within extreme buoyancy (4000+ J/kg of MLCAPE) may pose a risk for an additional tornado in proximity to the boundary given slightly enhanced low-level shear, very moist conditions and very strong vertical stretching. ...20z... The broad and rather nebulous severe threat continues across much of the central and eastern CONUS. Damaging wind and marginally severe hail potential will continue across parts of the OH Valley ahead of the intensifying band of thunderstorms this afternoon/evening. Trimming was done behind the line over the lower Great lakes and Midwest, where limited forcing for ascent, less buoyancy and weaker vertical shear are in place. While an isolated stronger storm remains possible, the lack of greater storm organization should curtail higher severe potential through the remainder of today. Farther south across the Mid MS and TN Valley, isolated strong to occasionally severe storms will remain possible over a broad area this afternoon. The warm and moist air mass will support some risk for occasional strong, water-loaded downdrafts with damaging gust potential. However, the coverage of severe storms appears low and the SLGT has been removed. Otherwise, the severe risk remains largely unchanged over parts of the Southern Plains. Isolated storms, including a few supercells, are possible over parts of central TX with a risk for damaging winds and very large hail. High-based convection ongoing over southeastern CO should continue to gradually grow upscale into this evening over parts of the TX/OK Panhandles. Damaging gusts and some hail are possible. By late tonight, an increasingly strong southerly low-level jet will support the development of additional storms ahead of this complex. Merging cells and bowing structures will pose a risk of damaging gusts, hail and isolated tornadoes overnight across parts of central OK and the Red River valley. ..Lyons.. 05/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 AM CDT Thu May 01 2025/ ...OH Valley... Morning water vapor imagery shows a progressive and large shortwave trough moving across parts of MO/IL. Forcing ahead of this trough will lead to scattered thunderstorm development over eastern IN and central KY, with storms spreading northeastward through the afternoon and early evening. Forecast soundings show deep and moderately strong southwest flow aloft. This coupled with sufficient CAPE will pose a threat of organized lines/clusters of storms capable of damaging wind gusts. Activity is expected to spread into western NY/PA during the early evening before weakening. ...Central TX... A weak surface boundary extends from west-central LA westward into central TX this morning. Strong heating and ample moisture along/south of the boundary will yield max CAPE values over 4000 J/kg by late afternoon. Most 12z CAM solutions indicate at least isolated intense convection forming in this corridor. Those storms that form will pose a risk of very large hail and damaging winds. Other intense storms may form off the high terrain of northern Mexico and build into parts of central TX this evening. ...TX Panhandle into OK... A combination of strong heating and upslope low-level winds into the Raton mesa will aid in the development of a cluster of thunderstorms over southeast CO this afternoon. This activity will track southeastward into a progressively more moist/unstable air mass over the TX panhandle and western OK, where a few more intense storms are expected. Cells and bowing structures will pose a risk of large hail and damaging winds. By late tonight, other storms are expected to form ahead of this complex, affecting parts of central OK with a risk of large hail. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook AMEND 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0503 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND ACROSS TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA.... AMENDED FOR INCREASED TORNADO PROBABILITIES ACROSS CENTRAL TX. ...SUMMARY... Lines and/or clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms are likely to impact parts of the Ohio Valley into lower Great Lakes, parts of the lower Mississippi Valley, and the southern Great Plains through tonight. Localized tornado risk has recently materialized across parts of central TX in proximity to a differential heating zone and a weakly confluent dryline. Several supercells ongoing within extreme buoyancy (4000+ J/kg of MLCAPE) may pose a risk for an additional tornado in proximity to the boundary given slightly enhanced low-level shear, very moist conditions and very strong vertical stretching. ...20z... The broad and rather nebulous severe threat continues across much of the central and eastern CONUS. Damaging wind and marginally severe hail potential will continue across parts of the OH Valley ahead of the intensifying band of thunderstorms this afternoon/evening. Trimming was done behind the line over the lower Great lakes and Midwest, where limited forcing for ascent, less buoyancy and weaker vertical shear are in place. While an isolated stronger storm remains possible, the lack of greater storm organization should curtail higher severe potential through the remainder of today. Farther south across the Mid MS and TN Valley, isolated strong to occasionally severe storms will remain possible over a broad area this afternoon. The warm and moist air mass will support some risk for occasional strong, water-loaded downdrafts with damaging gust potential. However, the coverage of severe storms appears low and the SLGT has been removed. Otherwise, the severe risk remains largely unchanged over parts of the Southern Plains. Isolated storms, including a few supercells, are possible over parts of central TX with a risk for damaging winds and very large hail. High-based convection ongoing over southeastern CO should continue to gradually grow upscale into this evening over parts of the TX/OK Panhandles. Damaging gusts and some hail are possible. By late tonight, an increasingly strong southerly low-level jet will support the development of additional storms ahead of this complex. Merging cells and bowing structures will pose a risk of damaging gusts, hail and isolated tornadoes overnight across parts of central OK and the Red River valley. ..Lyons.. 05/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 AM CDT Thu May 01 2025/ ...OH Valley... Morning water vapor imagery shows a progressive and large shortwave trough moving across parts of MO/IL. Forcing ahead of this trough will lead to scattered thunderstorm development over eastern IN and central KY, with storms spreading northeastward through the afternoon and early evening. Forecast soundings show deep and moderately strong southwest flow aloft. This coupled with sufficient CAPE will pose a threat of organized lines/clusters of storms capable of damaging wind gusts. Activity is expected to spread into western NY/PA during the early evening before weakening. ...Central TX... A weak surface boundary extends from west-central LA westward into central TX this morning. Strong heating and ample moisture along/south of the boundary will yield max CAPE values over 4000 J/kg by late afternoon. Most 12z CAM solutions indicate at least isolated intense convection forming in this corridor. Those storms that form will pose a risk of very large hail and damaging winds. Other intense storms may form off the high terrain of northern Mexico and build into parts of central TX this evening. ...TX Panhandle into OK... A combination of strong heating and upslope low-level winds into the Raton mesa will aid in the development of a cluster of thunderstorms over southeast CO this afternoon. This activity will track southeastward into a progressively more moist/unstable air mass over the TX panhandle and western OK, where a few more intense storms are expected. Cells and bowing structures will pose a risk of large hail and damaging winds. By late tonight, other storms are expected to form ahead of this complex, affecting parts of central OK with a risk of large hail. Read more