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MD 0641 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0641 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0914 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Areas affected...Oklahoma Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 020214Z - 020345Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorm watch will likely be issued for much of Oklahoma. Hail and wind are possible with overnight convection. DISCUSSION...Low-amplitude short-wave trough is digging southeast across the High Plains, currently extending from western KS into the western TX Panhandle. A loosely organized band of thunderstorms has developed ahead of this feature and should continue propagating toward western OK over the next few hours. Additionally, surface boundary has sharpened a bit downstream, extending from near TUL-southern McClain County-near Lawton. As 1km flow increases into this frontal corridor later this evening it appears this boundary may encourage robust thunderstorm development. Most high-res models favor some version of this scenario, and strong shear will prove beneficial in potential organization. Hail and damaging winds are the primary concern and a severe thunderstorm watch appears warranted. ..Darrow/Smith.. 05/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...OUN... LAT...LON 36289967 35999531 33969511 34259990 36289967 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

WW 0205 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 205 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW DRT TO 15 W SAT. ..SPC..05/02/25 ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...CRP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 205 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC031-127-163-259-271-283-323-325-463-479-507-020340- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLANCO DIMMIT FRIO KENDALL KINNEY LA SALLE MAVERICK MEDINA UVALDE WEBB ZAVALA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0205 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 205 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW DRT TO 15 W SAT. ..SPC..05/02/25 ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...CRP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 205 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC031-127-163-259-271-283-323-325-463-479-507-020340- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLANCO DIMMIT FRIO KENDALL KINNEY LA SALLE MAVERICK MEDINA UVALDE WEBB ZAVALA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0205 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 205 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW DRT TO 15 W SAT. ..SPC..05/02/25 ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...CRP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 205 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC031-127-163-259-271-283-323-325-463-479-507-020340- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLANCO DIMMIT FRIO KENDALL KINNEY LA SALLE MAVERICK MEDINA UVALDE WEBB ZAVALA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0205 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 205 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW DRT TO 15 W SAT. ..SPC..05/02/25 ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...CRP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 205 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC031-127-163-259-271-283-323-325-463-479-507-020340- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLANCO DIMMIT FRIO KENDALL KINNEY LA SALLE MAVERICK MEDINA UVALDE WEBB ZAVALA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0205 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 205 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW DRT TO 15 W SAT. ..SPC..05/02/25 ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...CRP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 205 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC031-127-163-259-271-283-323-325-463-479-507-020340- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLANCO DIMMIT FRIO KENDALL KINNEY LA SALLE MAVERICK MEDINA UVALDE WEBB ZAVALA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0205 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 205 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW DRT TO 15 W SAT. ..SPC..05/02/25 ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...CRP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 205 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC031-127-163-259-271-283-323-325-463-479-507-020340- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLANCO DIMMIT FRIO KENDALL KINNEY LA SALLE MAVERICK MEDINA UVALDE WEBB ZAVALA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 205 SEVERE TSTM TX 012140Z - 020500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 205 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 440 PM CDT Thu May 1 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of South-Central and South Texas * Effective this Thursday afternoon from 440 PM until Midnight CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop through the late afternoon and into the evening. A very unstable airmass and adequate deep-layer shear will promote supercell development. Large to giant hail is possible with the stronger storms. By this evening, a few storms may congeal and move east of the Rio Grande into parts of south Texas, posing a risk for large hail and severe gusts. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles east and west of a line from 15 miles northwest of Junction TX to 50 miles west southwest of Laredo TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 203...WW 204... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector 31010. ...Smith Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0826 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF S CNTRL TX AND PARTS OF WRN/CNTRL PA...AND THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SRN OK...NRN TX... CORRECTED HAIL GRAPHIC ...SUMMARY... Increasing strong to severe thunderstorm development is still expected tonight across parts of the south central Great Plains, mainly across the Texas Panhandle through the Red River vicinity, accompanied, primarily, by the potential for large hail and damaging wind gusts. ...01Z Update... Model output remains varied concerning the potential evolution of convection across the south central Great Plains tonight. Convection that initiated late this afternoon near and southeast of the Raton Mesa, appears to be evolving into small cluster, with a developing surface cold pool currently advancing southeastward across the western Texas Panhandle. In advance of this activity, an increasingly moist boundary layer with eastward extent into the Red River vicinity is contributing to sizable potential instability, beneath the northern periphery of notably dry air in the lower/mid-troposphere, including a deep elevated mixed layer based around 850 mb. As the evolving convective cluster acquires increasingly unstable updraft inflow, there appears potential for substantive further intensification across the southeastern Texas Panhandle into portions of southwestern Oklahoma and northwest Texas by around 05-06Z. Around that time, strengthening large-scale ascent within the unstable downstream environment, aided by strengthening lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, may support increasing thunderstorm development near and north of the Red River. Strong deep-layer shear and at least modestly enlarging low-level hodographs near the Red River may support supercells with potential to produce large hail and perhaps some risk for a tornado. At the same time, the east-southeastward advancing surface cold pool may maintain strength and perhaps strengthen further while supporting increasing upscale growth, including merging with the preceding warm advection driven convection. It appears possible that an increasingly organized cluster of storms could evolve with sustained strong to severe wind gusts across much of southern Oklahoma and adjacent north Texas by daybreak. The NAM, however, still appears to remain a significant outlier concerning the potential strength of the convective perturbation, with other output more modest. Otherwise, isolated to widely scattered ongoing strong to severe thunderstorm development across parts of central Texas into areas southeast of Del Rio probably will continue to wane this evening as inhibition increases with boundary layer cooling. ..Kerr.. 05/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0826 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF S CNTRL TX AND PARTS OF WRN/CNTRL PA...AND THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SRN OK...NRN TX... CORRECTED HAIL GRAPHIC ...SUMMARY... Increasing strong to severe thunderstorm development is still expected tonight across parts of the south central Great Plains, mainly across the Texas Panhandle through the Red River vicinity, accompanied, primarily, by the potential for large hail and damaging wind gusts. ...01Z Update... Model output remains varied concerning the potential evolution of convection across the south central Great Plains tonight. Convection that initiated late this afternoon near and southeast of the Raton Mesa, appears to be evolving into small cluster, with a developing surface cold pool currently advancing southeastward across the western Texas Panhandle. In advance of this activity, an increasingly moist boundary layer with eastward extent into the Red River vicinity is contributing to sizable potential instability, beneath the northern periphery of notably dry air in the lower/mid-troposphere, including a deep elevated mixed layer based around 850 mb. As the evolving convective cluster acquires increasingly unstable updraft inflow, there appears potential for substantive further intensification across the southeastern Texas Panhandle into portions of southwestern Oklahoma and northwest Texas by around 05-06Z. Around that time, strengthening large-scale ascent within the unstable downstream environment, aided by strengthening lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, may support increasing thunderstorm development near and north of the Red River. Strong deep-layer shear and at least modestly enlarging low-level hodographs near the Red River may support supercells with potential to produce large hail and perhaps some risk for a tornado. At the same time, the east-southeastward advancing surface cold pool may maintain strength and perhaps strengthen further while supporting increasing upscale growth, including merging with the preceding warm advection driven convection. It appears possible that an increasingly organized cluster of storms could evolve with sustained strong to severe wind gusts across much of southern Oklahoma and adjacent north Texas by daybreak. The NAM, however, still appears to remain a significant outlier concerning the potential strength of the convective perturbation, with other output more modest. Otherwise, isolated to widely scattered ongoing strong to severe thunderstorm development across parts of central Texas into areas southeast of Del Rio probably will continue to wane this evening as inhibition increases with boundary layer cooling. ..Kerr.. 05/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0826 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF S CNTRL TX AND PARTS OF WRN/CNTRL PA...AND THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SRN OK...NRN TX... CORRECTED HAIL GRAPHIC ...SUMMARY... Increasing strong to severe thunderstorm development is still expected tonight across parts of the south central Great Plains, mainly across the Texas Panhandle through the Red River vicinity, accompanied, primarily, by the potential for large hail and damaging wind gusts. ...01Z Update... Model output remains varied concerning the potential evolution of convection across the south central Great Plains tonight. Convection that initiated late this afternoon near and southeast of the Raton Mesa, appears to be evolving into small cluster, with a developing surface cold pool currently advancing southeastward across the western Texas Panhandle. In advance of this activity, an increasingly moist boundary layer with eastward extent into the Red River vicinity is contributing to sizable potential instability, beneath the northern periphery of notably dry air in the lower/mid-troposphere, including a deep elevated mixed layer based around 850 mb. As the evolving convective cluster acquires increasingly unstable updraft inflow, there appears potential for substantive further intensification across the southeastern Texas Panhandle into portions of southwestern Oklahoma and northwest Texas by around 05-06Z. Around that time, strengthening large-scale ascent within the unstable downstream environment, aided by strengthening lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, may support increasing thunderstorm development near and north of the Red River. Strong deep-layer shear and at least modestly enlarging low-level hodographs near the Red River may support supercells with potential to produce large hail and perhaps some risk for a tornado. At the same time, the east-southeastward advancing surface cold pool may maintain strength and perhaps strengthen further while supporting increasing upscale growth, including merging with the preceding warm advection driven convection. It appears possible that an increasingly organized cluster of storms could evolve with sustained strong to severe wind gusts across much of southern Oklahoma and adjacent north Texas by daybreak. The NAM, however, still appears to remain a significant outlier concerning the potential strength of the convective perturbation, with other output more modest. Otherwise, isolated to widely scattered ongoing strong to severe thunderstorm development across parts of central Texas into areas southeast of Del Rio probably will continue to wane this evening as inhibition increases with boundary layer cooling. ..Kerr.. 05/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0826 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF S CNTRL TX AND PARTS OF WRN/CNTRL PA...AND THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SRN OK...NRN TX... CORRECTED HAIL GRAPHIC ...SUMMARY... Increasing strong to severe thunderstorm development is still expected tonight across parts of the south central Great Plains, mainly across the Texas Panhandle through the Red River vicinity, accompanied, primarily, by the potential for large hail and damaging wind gusts. ...01Z Update... Model output remains varied concerning the potential evolution of convection across the south central Great Plains tonight. Convection that initiated late this afternoon near and southeast of the Raton Mesa, appears to be evolving into small cluster, with a developing surface cold pool currently advancing southeastward across the western Texas Panhandle. In advance of this activity, an increasingly moist boundary layer with eastward extent into the Red River vicinity is contributing to sizable potential instability, beneath the northern periphery of notably dry air in the lower/mid-troposphere, including a deep elevated mixed layer based around 850 mb. As the evolving convective cluster acquires increasingly unstable updraft inflow, there appears potential for substantive further intensification across the southeastern Texas Panhandle into portions of southwestern Oklahoma and northwest Texas by around 05-06Z. Around that time, strengthening large-scale ascent within the unstable downstream environment, aided by strengthening lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, may support increasing thunderstorm development near and north of the Red River. Strong deep-layer shear and at least modestly enlarging low-level hodographs near the Red River may support supercells with potential to produce large hail and perhaps some risk for a tornado. At the same time, the east-southeastward advancing surface cold pool may maintain strength and perhaps strengthen further while supporting increasing upscale growth, including merging with the preceding warm advection driven convection. It appears possible that an increasingly organized cluster of storms could evolve with sustained strong to severe wind gusts across much of southern Oklahoma and adjacent north Texas by daybreak. The NAM, however, still appears to remain a significant outlier concerning the potential strength of the convective perturbation, with other output more modest. Otherwise, isolated to widely scattered ongoing strong to severe thunderstorm development across parts of central Texas into areas southeast of Del Rio probably will continue to wane this evening as inhibition increases with boundary layer cooling. ..Kerr.. 05/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0826 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF S CNTRL TX AND PARTS OF WRN/CNTRL PA...AND THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SRN OK...NRN TX... CORRECTED HAIL GRAPHIC ...SUMMARY... Increasing strong to severe thunderstorm development is still expected tonight across parts of the south central Great Plains, mainly across the Texas Panhandle through the Red River vicinity, accompanied, primarily, by the potential for large hail and damaging wind gusts. ...01Z Update... Model output remains varied concerning the potential evolution of convection across the south central Great Plains tonight. Convection that initiated late this afternoon near and southeast of the Raton Mesa, appears to be evolving into small cluster, with a developing surface cold pool currently advancing southeastward across the western Texas Panhandle. In advance of this activity, an increasingly moist boundary layer with eastward extent into the Red River vicinity is contributing to sizable potential instability, beneath the northern periphery of notably dry air in the lower/mid-troposphere, including a deep elevated mixed layer based around 850 mb. As the evolving convective cluster acquires increasingly unstable updraft inflow, there appears potential for substantive further intensification across the southeastern Texas Panhandle into portions of southwestern Oklahoma and northwest Texas by around 05-06Z. Around that time, strengthening large-scale ascent within the unstable downstream environment, aided by strengthening lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, may support increasing thunderstorm development near and north of the Red River. Strong deep-layer shear and at least modestly enlarging low-level hodographs near the Red River may support supercells with potential to produce large hail and perhaps some risk for a tornado. At the same time, the east-southeastward advancing surface cold pool may maintain strength and perhaps strengthen further while supporting increasing upscale growth, including merging with the preceding warm advection driven convection. It appears possible that an increasingly organized cluster of storms could evolve with sustained strong to severe wind gusts across much of southern Oklahoma and adjacent north Texas by daybreak. The NAM, however, still appears to remain a significant outlier concerning the potential strength of the convective perturbation, with other output more modest. Otherwise, isolated to widely scattered ongoing strong to severe thunderstorm development across parts of central Texas into areas southeast of Del Rio probably will continue to wane this evening as inhibition increases with boundary layer cooling. ..Kerr.. 05/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0826 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF S CNTRL TX AND PARTS OF WRN/CNTRL PA...AND THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SRN OK...NRN TX... CORRECTED HAIL GRAPHIC ...SUMMARY... Increasing strong to severe thunderstorm development is still expected tonight across parts of the south central Great Plains, mainly across the Texas Panhandle through the Red River vicinity, accompanied, primarily, by the potential for large hail and damaging wind gusts. ...01Z Update... Model output remains varied concerning the potential evolution of convection across the south central Great Plains tonight. Convection that initiated late this afternoon near and southeast of the Raton Mesa, appears to be evolving into small cluster, with a developing surface cold pool currently advancing southeastward across the western Texas Panhandle. In advance of this activity, an increasingly moist boundary layer with eastward extent into the Red River vicinity is contributing to sizable potential instability, beneath the northern periphery of notably dry air in the lower/mid-troposphere, including a deep elevated mixed layer based around 850 mb. As the evolving convective cluster acquires increasingly unstable updraft inflow, there appears potential for substantive further intensification across the southeastern Texas Panhandle into portions of southwestern Oklahoma and northwest Texas by around 05-06Z. Around that time, strengthening large-scale ascent within the unstable downstream environment, aided by strengthening lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, may support increasing thunderstorm development near and north of the Red River. Strong deep-layer shear and at least modestly enlarging low-level hodographs near the Red River may support supercells with potential to produce large hail and perhaps some risk for a tornado. At the same time, the east-southeastward advancing surface cold pool may maintain strength and perhaps strengthen further while supporting increasing upscale growth, including merging with the preceding warm advection driven convection. It appears possible that an increasingly organized cluster of storms could evolve with sustained strong to severe wind gusts across much of southern Oklahoma and adjacent north Texas by daybreak. The NAM, however, still appears to remain a significant outlier concerning the potential strength of the convective perturbation, with other output more modest. Otherwise, isolated to widely scattered ongoing strong to severe thunderstorm development across parts of central Texas into areas southeast of Del Rio probably will continue to wane this evening as inhibition increases with boundary layer cooling. ..Kerr.. 05/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0826 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF S CNTRL TX AND PARTS OF WRN/CNTRL PA...AND THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SRN OK...NRN TX... CORRECTED HAIL GRAPHIC ...SUMMARY... Increasing strong to severe thunderstorm development is still expected tonight across parts of the south central Great Plains, mainly across the Texas Panhandle through the Red River vicinity, accompanied, primarily, by the potential for large hail and damaging wind gusts. ...01Z Update... Model output remains varied concerning the potential evolution of convection across the south central Great Plains tonight. Convection that initiated late this afternoon near and southeast of the Raton Mesa, appears to be evolving into small cluster, with a developing surface cold pool currently advancing southeastward across the western Texas Panhandle. In advance of this activity, an increasingly moist boundary layer with eastward extent into the Red River vicinity is contributing to sizable potential instability, beneath the northern periphery of notably dry air in the lower/mid-troposphere, including a deep elevated mixed layer based around 850 mb. As the evolving convective cluster acquires increasingly unstable updraft inflow, there appears potential for substantive further intensification across the southeastern Texas Panhandle into portions of southwestern Oklahoma and northwest Texas by around 05-06Z. Around that time, strengthening large-scale ascent within the unstable downstream environment, aided by strengthening lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, may support increasing thunderstorm development near and north of the Red River. Strong deep-layer shear and at least modestly enlarging low-level hodographs near the Red River may support supercells with potential to produce large hail and perhaps some risk for a tornado. At the same time, the east-southeastward advancing surface cold pool may maintain strength and perhaps strengthen further while supporting increasing upscale growth, including merging with the preceding warm advection driven convection. It appears possible that an increasingly organized cluster of storms could evolve with sustained strong to severe wind gusts across much of southern Oklahoma and adjacent north Texas by daybreak. The NAM, however, still appears to remain a significant outlier concerning the potential strength of the convective perturbation, with other output more modest. Otherwise, isolated to widely scattered ongoing strong to severe thunderstorm development across parts of central Texas into areas southeast of Del Rio probably will continue to wane this evening as inhibition increases with boundary layer cooling. ..Kerr.. 05/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0826 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF S CNTRL TX AND PARTS OF WRN/CNTRL PA...AND THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SRN OK...NRN TX... CORRECTED HAIL GRAPHIC ...SUMMARY... Increasing strong to severe thunderstorm development is still expected tonight across parts of the south central Great Plains, mainly across the Texas Panhandle through the Red River vicinity, accompanied, primarily, by the potential for large hail and damaging wind gusts. ...01Z Update... Model output remains varied concerning the potential evolution of convection across the south central Great Plains tonight. Convection that initiated late this afternoon near and southeast of the Raton Mesa, appears to be evolving into small cluster, with a developing surface cold pool currently advancing southeastward across the western Texas Panhandle. In advance of this activity, an increasingly moist boundary layer with eastward extent into the Red River vicinity is contributing to sizable potential instability, beneath the northern periphery of notably dry air in the lower/mid-troposphere, including a deep elevated mixed layer based around 850 mb. As the evolving convective cluster acquires increasingly unstable updraft inflow, there appears potential for substantive further intensification across the southeastern Texas Panhandle into portions of southwestern Oklahoma and northwest Texas by around 05-06Z. Around that time, strengthening large-scale ascent within the unstable downstream environment, aided by strengthening lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, may support increasing thunderstorm development near and north of the Red River. Strong deep-layer shear and at least modestly enlarging low-level hodographs near the Red River may support supercells with potential to produce large hail and perhaps some risk for a tornado. At the same time, the east-southeastward advancing surface cold pool may maintain strength and perhaps strengthen further while supporting increasing upscale growth, including merging with the preceding warm advection driven convection. It appears possible that an increasingly organized cluster of storms could evolve with sustained strong to severe wind gusts across much of southern Oklahoma and adjacent north Texas by daybreak. The NAM, however, still appears to remain a significant outlier concerning the potential strength of the convective perturbation, with other output more modest. Otherwise, isolated to widely scattered ongoing strong to severe thunderstorm development across parts of central Texas into areas southeast of Del Rio probably will continue to wane this evening as inhibition increases with boundary layer cooling. ..Kerr.. 05/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0826 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF S CNTRL TX AND PARTS OF WRN/CNTRL PA...AND THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SRN OK...NRN TX... CORRECTED HAIL GRAPHIC ...SUMMARY... Increasing strong to severe thunderstorm development is still expected tonight across parts of the south central Great Plains, mainly across the Texas Panhandle through the Red River vicinity, accompanied, primarily, by the potential for large hail and damaging wind gusts. ...01Z Update... Model output remains varied concerning the potential evolution of convection across the south central Great Plains tonight. Convection that initiated late this afternoon near and southeast of the Raton Mesa, appears to be evolving into small cluster, with a developing surface cold pool currently advancing southeastward across the western Texas Panhandle. In advance of this activity, an increasingly moist boundary layer with eastward extent into the Red River vicinity is contributing to sizable potential instability, beneath the northern periphery of notably dry air in the lower/mid-troposphere, including a deep elevated mixed layer based around 850 mb. As the evolving convective cluster acquires increasingly unstable updraft inflow, there appears potential for substantive further intensification across the southeastern Texas Panhandle into portions of southwestern Oklahoma and northwest Texas by around 05-06Z. Around that time, strengthening large-scale ascent within the unstable downstream environment, aided by strengthening lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, may support increasing thunderstorm development near and north of the Red River. Strong deep-layer shear and at least modestly enlarging low-level hodographs near the Red River may support supercells with potential to produce large hail and perhaps some risk for a tornado. At the same time, the east-southeastward advancing surface cold pool may maintain strength and perhaps strengthen further while supporting increasing upscale growth, including merging with the preceding warm advection driven convection. It appears possible that an increasingly organized cluster of storms could evolve with sustained strong to severe wind gusts across much of southern Oklahoma and adjacent north Texas by daybreak. The NAM, however, still appears to remain a significant outlier concerning the potential strength of the convective perturbation, with other output more modest. Otherwise, isolated to widely scattered ongoing strong to severe thunderstorm development across parts of central Texas into areas southeast of Del Rio probably will continue to wane this evening as inhibition increases with boundary layer cooling. ..Kerr.. 05/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0826 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF S CNTRL TX AND PARTS OF WRN/CNTRL PA...AND THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SRN OK...NRN TX... CORRECTED HAIL GRAPHIC ...SUMMARY... Increasing strong to severe thunderstorm development is still expected tonight across parts of the south central Great Plains, mainly across the Texas Panhandle through the Red River vicinity, accompanied, primarily, by the potential for large hail and damaging wind gusts. ...01Z Update... Model output remains varied concerning the potential evolution of convection across the south central Great Plains tonight. Convection that initiated late this afternoon near and southeast of the Raton Mesa, appears to be evolving into small cluster, with a developing surface cold pool currently advancing southeastward across the western Texas Panhandle. In advance of this activity, an increasingly moist boundary layer with eastward extent into the Red River vicinity is contributing to sizable potential instability, beneath the northern periphery of notably dry air in the lower/mid-troposphere, including a deep elevated mixed layer based around 850 mb. As the evolving convective cluster acquires increasingly unstable updraft inflow, there appears potential for substantive further intensification across the southeastern Texas Panhandle into portions of southwestern Oklahoma and northwest Texas by around 05-06Z. Around that time, strengthening large-scale ascent within the unstable downstream environment, aided by strengthening lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, may support increasing thunderstorm development near and north of the Red River. Strong deep-layer shear and at least modestly enlarging low-level hodographs near the Red River may support supercells with potential to produce large hail and perhaps some risk for a tornado. At the same time, the east-southeastward advancing surface cold pool may maintain strength and perhaps strengthen further while supporting increasing upscale growth, including merging with the preceding warm advection driven convection. It appears possible that an increasingly organized cluster of storms could evolve with sustained strong to severe wind gusts across much of southern Oklahoma and adjacent north Texas by daybreak. The NAM, however, still appears to remain a significant outlier concerning the potential strength of the convective perturbation, with other output more modest. Otherwise, isolated to widely scattered ongoing strong to severe thunderstorm development across parts of central Texas into areas southeast of Del Rio probably will continue to wane this evening as inhibition increases with boundary layer cooling. ..Kerr.. 05/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0826 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF S CNTRL TX AND PARTS OF WRN/CNTRL PA...AND THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SRN OK...NRN TX... CORRECTED HAIL GRAPHIC ...SUMMARY... Increasing strong to severe thunderstorm development is still expected tonight across parts of the south central Great Plains, mainly across the Texas Panhandle through the Red River vicinity, accompanied, primarily, by the potential for large hail and damaging wind gusts. ...01Z Update... Model output remains varied concerning the potential evolution of convection across the south central Great Plains tonight. Convection that initiated late this afternoon near and southeast of the Raton Mesa, appears to be evolving into small cluster, with a developing surface cold pool currently advancing southeastward across the western Texas Panhandle. In advance of this activity, an increasingly moist boundary layer with eastward extent into the Red River vicinity is contributing to sizable potential instability, beneath the northern periphery of notably dry air in the lower/mid-troposphere, including a deep elevated mixed layer based around 850 mb. As the evolving convective cluster acquires increasingly unstable updraft inflow, there appears potential for substantive further intensification across the southeastern Texas Panhandle into portions of southwestern Oklahoma and northwest Texas by around 05-06Z. Around that time, strengthening large-scale ascent within the unstable downstream environment, aided by strengthening lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, may support increasing thunderstorm development near and north of the Red River. Strong deep-layer shear and at least modestly enlarging low-level hodographs near the Red River may support supercells with potential to produce large hail and perhaps some risk for a tornado. At the same time, the east-southeastward advancing surface cold pool may maintain strength and perhaps strengthen further while supporting increasing upscale growth, including merging with the preceding warm advection driven convection. It appears possible that an increasingly organized cluster of storms could evolve with sustained strong to severe wind gusts across much of southern Oklahoma and adjacent north Texas by daybreak. The NAM, however, still appears to remain a significant outlier concerning the potential strength of the convective perturbation, with other output more modest. Otherwise, isolated to widely scattered ongoing strong to severe thunderstorm development across parts of central Texas into areas southeast of Del Rio probably will continue to wane this evening as inhibition increases with boundary layer cooling. ..Kerr.. 05/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0826 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF S CNTRL TX AND PARTS OF WRN/CNTRL PA...AND THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SRN OK...NRN TX... CORRECTED HAIL GRAPHIC ...SUMMARY... Increasing strong to severe thunderstorm development is still expected tonight across parts of the south central Great Plains, mainly across the Texas Panhandle through the Red River vicinity, accompanied, primarily, by the potential for large hail and damaging wind gusts. ...01Z Update... Model output remains varied concerning the potential evolution of convection across the south central Great Plains tonight. Convection that initiated late this afternoon near and southeast of the Raton Mesa, appears to be evolving into small cluster, with a developing surface cold pool currently advancing southeastward across the western Texas Panhandle. In advance of this activity, an increasingly moist boundary layer with eastward extent into the Red River vicinity is contributing to sizable potential instability, beneath the northern periphery of notably dry air in the lower/mid-troposphere, including a deep elevated mixed layer based around 850 mb. As the evolving convective cluster acquires increasingly unstable updraft inflow, there appears potential for substantive further intensification across the southeastern Texas Panhandle into portions of southwestern Oklahoma and northwest Texas by around 05-06Z. Around that time, strengthening large-scale ascent within the unstable downstream environment, aided by strengthening lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, may support increasing thunderstorm development near and north of the Red River. Strong deep-layer shear and at least modestly enlarging low-level hodographs near the Red River may support supercells with potential to produce large hail and perhaps some risk for a tornado. At the same time, the east-southeastward advancing surface cold pool may maintain strength and perhaps strengthen further while supporting increasing upscale growth, including merging with the preceding warm advection driven convection. It appears possible that an increasingly organized cluster of storms could evolve with sustained strong to severe wind gusts across much of southern Oklahoma and adjacent north Texas by daybreak. The NAM, however, still appears to remain a significant outlier concerning the potential strength of the convective perturbation, with other output more modest. Otherwise, isolated to widely scattered ongoing strong to severe thunderstorm development across parts of central Texas into areas southeast of Del Rio probably will continue to wane this evening as inhibition increases with boundary layer cooling. ..Kerr.. 05/02/2025 Read more