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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain confined to the Southwest for today, and will mainly manifest as a dry-thunderstorm risk across parts of far eastern Arizona into central New Mexico. Early-morning water vapor imagery shows a weak upper low over the southern CA coast. This feature is expected to drift east over the next 24 hours, reaching AZ/NM by peak heating this afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates and modest mid-level moisture were sampled by the FGZ and ABQ 00z soundings, which should be adequate for weak convection this afternoon as ascent overspreads the region. Deep, well-mixed boundary layers between 2-3 km deep, coupled with PWAT values of 0.6 inches or less, should promote relatively dry thunderstorms from central AZ to central NM. Latest fuel and drought guidance shows sufficiently dry conditions across eastern AZ into NM to support fire ignitions from dry lightning strikes. South of the dry thunderstorm risk area, 10-15 mph southerly winds coupled with RH values in the teens will promote pockets of elevated fire weather conditions. ..Moore.. 05/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain confined to the Southwest for today, and will mainly manifest as a dry-thunderstorm risk across parts of far eastern Arizona into central New Mexico. Early-morning water vapor imagery shows a weak upper low over the southern CA coast. This feature is expected to drift east over the next 24 hours, reaching AZ/NM by peak heating this afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates and modest mid-level moisture were sampled by the FGZ and ABQ 00z soundings, which should be adequate for weak convection this afternoon as ascent overspreads the region. Deep, well-mixed boundary layers between 2-3 km deep, coupled with PWAT values of 0.6 inches or less, should promote relatively dry thunderstorms from central AZ to central NM. Latest fuel and drought guidance shows sufficiently dry conditions across eastern AZ into NM to support fire ignitions from dry lightning strikes. South of the dry thunderstorm risk area, 10-15 mph southerly winds coupled with RH values in the teens will promote pockets of elevated fire weather conditions. ..Moore.. 05/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain confined to the Southwest for today, and will mainly manifest as a dry-thunderstorm risk across parts of far eastern Arizona into central New Mexico. Early-morning water vapor imagery shows a weak upper low over the southern CA coast. This feature is expected to drift east over the next 24 hours, reaching AZ/NM by peak heating this afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates and modest mid-level moisture were sampled by the FGZ and ABQ 00z soundings, which should be adequate for weak convection this afternoon as ascent overspreads the region. Deep, well-mixed boundary layers between 2-3 km deep, coupled with PWAT values of 0.6 inches or less, should promote relatively dry thunderstorms from central AZ to central NM. Latest fuel and drought guidance shows sufficiently dry conditions across eastern AZ into NM to support fire ignitions from dry lightning strikes. South of the dry thunderstorm risk area, 10-15 mph southerly winds coupled with RH values in the teens will promote pockets of elevated fire weather conditions. ..Moore.. 05/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain confined to the Southwest for today, and will mainly manifest as a dry-thunderstorm risk across parts of far eastern Arizona into central New Mexico. Early-morning water vapor imagery shows a weak upper low over the southern CA coast. This feature is expected to drift east over the next 24 hours, reaching AZ/NM by peak heating this afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates and modest mid-level moisture were sampled by the FGZ and ABQ 00z soundings, which should be adequate for weak convection this afternoon as ascent overspreads the region. Deep, well-mixed boundary layers between 2-3 km deep, coupled with PWAT values of 0.6 inches or less, should promote relatively dry thunderstorms from central AZ to central NM. Latest fuel and drought guidance shows sufficiently dry conditions across eastern AZ into NM to support fire ignitions from dry lightning strikes. South of the dry thunderstorm risk area, 10-15 mph southerly winds coupled with RH values in the teens will promote pockets of elevated fire weather conditions. ..Moore.. 05/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain confined to the Southwest for today, and will mainly manifest as a dry-thunderstorm risk across parts of far eastern Arizona into central New Mexico. Early-morning water vapor imagery shows a weak upper low over the southern CA coast. This feature is expected to drift east over the next 24 hours, reaching AZ/NM by peak heating this afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates and modest mid-level moisture were sampled by the FGZ and ABQ 00z soundings, which should be adequate for weak convection this afternoon as ascent overspreads the region. Deep, well-mixed boundary layers between 2-3 km deep, coupled with PWAT values of 0.6 inches or less, should promote relatively dry thunderstorms from central AZ to central NM. Latest fuel and drought guidance shows sufficiently dry conditions across eastern AZ into NM to support fire ignitions from dry lightning strikes. South of the dry thunderstorm risk area, 10-15 mph southerly winds coupled with RH values in the teens will promote pockets of elevated fire weather conditions. ..Moore.. 05/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain confined to the Southwest for today, and will mainly manifest as a dry-thunderstorm risk across parts of far eastern Arizona into central New Mexico. Early-morning water vapor imagery shows a weak upper low over the southern CA coast. This feature is expected to drift east over the next 24 hours, reaching AZ/NM by peak heating this afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates and modest mid-level moisture were sampled by the FGZ and ABQ 00z soundings, which should be adequate for weak convection this afternoon as ascent overspreads the region. Deep, well-mixed boundary layers between 2-3 km deep, coupled with PWAT values of 0.6 inches or less, should promote relatively dry thunderstorms from central AZ to central NM. Latest fuel and drought guidance shows sufficiently dry conditions across eastern AZ into NM to support fire ignitions from dry lightning strikes. South of the dry thunderstorm risk area, 10-15 mph southerly winds coupled with RH values in the teens will promote pockets of elevated fire weather conditions. ..Moore.. 05/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain confined to the Southwest for today, and will mainly manifest as a dry-thunderstorm risk across parts of far eastern Arizona into central New Mexico. Early-morning water vapor imagery shows a weak upper low over the southern CA coast. This feature is expected to drift east over the next 24 hours, reaching AZ/NM by peak heating this afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates and modest mid-level moisture were sampled by the FGZ and ABQ 00z soundings, which should be adequate for weak convection this afternoon as ascent overspreads the region. Deep, well-mixed boundary layers between 2-3 km deep, coupled with PWAT values of 0.6 inches or less, should promote relatively dry thunderstorms from central AZ to central NM. Latest fuel and drought guidance shows sufficiently dry conditions across eastern AZ into NM to support fire ignitions from dry lightning strikes. South of the dry thunderstorm risk area, 10-15 mph southerly winds coupled with RH values in the teens will promote pockets of elevated fire weather conditions. ..Moore.. 05/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain confined to the Southwest for today, and will mainly manifest as a dry-thunderstorm risk across parts of far eastern Arizona into central New Mexico. Early-morning water vapor imagery shows a weak upper low over the southern CA coast. This feature is expected to drift east over the next 24 hours, reaching AZ/NM by peak heating this afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates and modest mid-level moisture were sampled by the FGZ and ABQ 00z soundings, which should be adequate for weak convection this afternoon as ascent overspreads the region. Deep, well-mixed boundary layers between 2-3 km deep, coupled with PWAT values of 0.6 inches or less, should promote relatively dry thunderstorms from central AZ to central NM. Latest fuel and drought guidance shows sufficiently dry conditions across eastern AZ into NM to support fire ignitions from dry lightning strikes. South of the dry thunderstorm risk area, 10-15 mph southerly winds coupled with RH values in the teens will promote pockets of elevated fire weather conditions. ..Moore.. 05/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain confined to the Southwest for today, and will mainly manifest as a dry-thunderstorm risk across parts of far eastern Arizona into central New Mexico. Early-morning water vapor imagery shows a weak upper low over the southern CA coast. This feature is expected to drift east over the next 24 hours, reaching AZ/NM by peak heating this afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates and modest mid-level moisture were sampled by the FGZ and ABQ 00z soundings, which should be adequate for weak convection this afternoon as ascent overspreads the region. Deep, well-mixed boundary layers between 2-3 km deep, coupled with PWAT values of 0.6 inches or less, should promote relatively dry thunderstorms from central AZ to central NM. Latest fuel and drought guidance shows sufficiently dry conditions across eastern AZ into NM to support fire ignitions from dry lightning strikes. South of the dry thunderstorm risk area, 10-15 mph southerly winds coupled with RH values in the teens will promote pockets of elevated fire weather conditions. ..Moore.. 05/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible on Saturday from the Southeast to southern New England and across deep South Texas. ...Synopsis... A mid-level low will become closed across the Midwest on Saturday with an associated surface low traversing along the Ohio River. A cold front will extend southwest from this surface low to South Texas Saturday morning with the cold front crossing the Appalachians by Saturday evening. ...Mid-Atlantic to the Southeast... A broad warm sector featuring low to mid 60s dewpoints will be in place ahead of the aforementioned cold front on Saturday morning. Convection will likely be ongoing along this front at the beginning of the period. This convection and associated cloud cover will likely inhibit destabilization ahead of the front with only weak instability forecast. Flow will be sufficient for some clusters or organized bowing segments, but the limited instability will probably limit a greater threat. Less cloudcover and greater destabilization is likely east of the Appalachians which could lead to a locally greater severe weather threat. Forecast soundings show around 35 to 45 knots of deep layer shear which could result in some organized storms. However, this threat should be short-lived as inhibition increases substantially after sunset. ...Deep South Texas... The majority of guidance shows the cold front/composite outflow in the Gulf/northern Mexico by 12Z Saturday, but some guidance (Hires NAM and somewhat the NSSL-WRF) shows a less progressive/slower southward movement of the boundary. Therefore, while a marginal severe weather risk appears less likely across Deep South Texas on Day 2/Saturday, the threat will be maintained for now since some guidance indicates the threat could exist and only slight timing differences from other guidance could result in some threat early on Day 2. ..Bentley.. 05/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible on Saturday from the Southeast to southern New England and across deep South Texas. ...Synopsis... A mid-level low will become closed across the Midwest on Saturday with an associated surface low traversing along the Ohio River. A cold front will extend southwest from this surface low to South Texas Saturday morning with the cold front crossing the Appalachians by Saturday evening. ...Mid-Atlantic to the Southeast... A broad warm sector featuring low to mid 60s dewpoints will be in place ahead of the aforementioned cold front on Saturday morning. Convection will likely be ongoing along this front at the beginning of the period. This convection and associated cloud cover will likely inhibit destabilization ahead of the front with only weak instability forecast. Flow will be sufficient for some clusters or organized bowing segments, but the limited instability will probably limit a greater threat. Less cloudcover and greater destabilization is likely east of the Appalachians which could lead to a locally greater severe weather threat. Forecast soundings show around 35 to 45 knots of deep layer shear which could result in some organized storms. However, this threat should be short-lived as inhibition increases substantially after sunset. ...Deep South Texas... The majority of guidance shows the cold front/composite outflow in the Gulf/northern Mexico by 12Z Saturday, but some guidance (Hires NAM and somewhat the NSSL-WRF) shows a less progressive/slower southward movement of the boundary. Therefore, while a marginal severe weather risk appears less likely across Deep South Texas on Day 2/Saturday, the threat will be maintained for now since some guidance indicates the threat could exist and only slight timing differences from other guidance could result in some threat early on Day 2. ..Bentley.. 05/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible on Saturday from the Southeast to southern New England and across deep South Texas. ...Synopsis... A mid-level low will become closed across the Midwest on Saturday with an associated surface low traversing along the Ohio River. A cold front will extend southwest from this surface low to South Texas Saturday morning with the cold front crossing the Appalachians by Saturday evening. ...Mid-Atlantic to the Southeast... A broad warm sector featuring low to mid 60s dewpoints will be in place ahead of the aforementioned cold front on Saturday morning. Convection will likely be ongoing along this front at the beginning of the period. This convection and associated cloud cover will likely inhibit destabilization ahead of the front with only weak instability forecast. Flow will be sufficient for some clusters or organized bowing segments, but the limited instability will probably limit a greater threat. Less cloudcover and greater destabilization is likely east of the Appalachians which could lead to a locally greater severe weather threat. Forecast soundings show around 35 to 45 knots of deep layer shear which could result in some organized storms. However, this threat should be short-lived as inhibition increases substantially after sunset. ...Deep South Texas... The majority of guidance shows the cold front/composite outflow in the Gulf/northern Mexico by 12Z Saturday, but some guidance (Hires NAM and somewhat the NSSL-WRF) shows a less progressive/slower southward movement of the boundary. Therefore, while a marginal severe weather risk appears less likely across Deep South Texas on Day 2/Saturday, the threat will be maintained for now since some guidance indicates the threat could exist and only slight timing differences from other guidance could result in some threat early on Day 2. ..Bentley.. 05/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible on Saturday from the Southeast to southern New England and across deep South Texas. ...Synopsis... A mid-level low will become closed across the Midwest on Saturday with an associated surface low traversing along the Ohio River. A cold front will extend southwest from this surface low to South Texas Saturday morning with the cold front crossing the Appalachians by Saturday evening. ...Mid-Atlantic to the Southeast... A broad warm sector featuring low to mid 60s dewpoints will be in place ahead of the aforementioned cold front on Saturday morning. Convection will likely be ongoing along this front at the beginning of the period. This convection and associated cloud cover will likely inhibit destabilization ahead of the front with only weak instability forecast. Flow will be sufficient for some clusters or organized bowing segments, but the limited instability will probably limit a greater threat. Less cloudcover and greater destabilization is likely east of the Appalachians which could lead to a locally greater severe weather threat. Forecast soundings show around 35 to 45 knots of deep layer shear which could result in some organized storms. However, this threat should be short-lived as inhibition increases substantially after sunset. ...Deep South Texas... The majority of guidance shows the cold front/composite outflow in the Gulf/northern Mexico by 12Z Saturday, but some guidance (Hires NAM and somewhat the NSSL-WRF) shows a less progressive/slower southward movement of the boundary. Therefore, while a marginal severe weather risk appears less likely across Deep South Texas on Day 2/Saturday, the threat will be maintained for now since some guidance indicates the threat could exist and only slight timing differences from other guidance could result in some threat early on Day 2. ..Bentley.. 05/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible on Saturday from the Southeast to southern New England and across deep South Texas. ...Synopsis... A mid-level low will become closed across the Midwest on Saturday with an associated surface low traversing along the Ohio River. A cold front will extend southwest from this surface low to South Texas Saturday morning with the cold front crossing the Appalachians by Saturday evening. ...Mid-Atlantic to the Southeast... A broad warm sector featuring low to mid 60s dewpoints will be in place ahead of the aforementioned cold front on Saturday morning. Convection will likely be ongoing along this front at the beginning of the period. This convection and associated cloud cover will likely inhibit destabilization ahead of the front with only weak instability forecast. Flow will be sufficient for some clusters or organized bowing segments, but the limited instability will probably limit a greater threat. Less cloudcover and greater destabilization is likely east of the Appalachians which could lead to a locally greater severe weather threat. Forecast soundings show around 35 to 45 knots of deep layer shear which could result in some organized storms. However, this threat should be short-lived as inhibition increases substantially after sunset. ...Deep South Texas... The majority of guidance shows the cold front/composite outflow in the Gulf/northern Mexico by 12Z Saturday, but some guidance (Hires NAM and somewhat the NSSL-WRF) shows a less progressive/slower southward movement of the boundary. Therefore, while a marginal severe weather risk appears less likely across Deep South Texas on Day 2/Saturday, the threat will be maintained for now since some guidance indicates the threat could exist and only slight timing differences from other guidance could result in some threat early on Day 2. ..Bentley.. 05/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible on Saturday from the Southeast to southern New England and across deep South Texas. ...Synopsis... A mid-level low will become closed across the Midwest on Saturday with an associated surface low traversing along the Ohio River. A cold front will extend southwest from this surface low to South Texas Saturday morning with the cold front crossing the Appalachians by Saturday evening. ...Mid-Atlantic to the Southeast... A broad warm sector featuring low to mid 60s dewpoints will be in place ahead of the aforementioned cold front on Saturday morning. Convection will likely be ongoing along this front at the beginning of the period. This convection and associated cloud cover will likely inhibit destabilization ahead of the front with only weak instability forecast. Flow will be sufficient for some clusters or organized bowing segments, but the limited instability will probably limit a greater threat. Less cloudcover and greater destabilization is likely east of the Appalachians which could lead to a locally greater severe weather threat. Forecast soundings show around 35 to 45 knots of deep layer shear which could result in some organized storms. However, this threat should be short-lived as inhibition increases substantially after sunset. ...Deep South Texas... The majority of guidance shows the cold front/composite outflow in the Gulf/northern Mexico by 12Z Saturday, but some guidance (Hires NAM and somewhat the NSSL-WRF) shows a less progressive/slower southward movement of the boundary. Therefore, while a marginal severe weather risk appears less likely across Deep South Texas on Day 2/Saturday, the threat will be maintained for now since some guidance indicates the threat could exist and only slight timing differences from other guidance could result in some threat early on Day 2. ..Bentley.. 05/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible on Saturday from the Southeast to southern New England and across deep South Texas. ...Synopsis... A mid-level low will become closed across the Midwest on Saturday with an associated surface low traversing along the Ohio River. A cold front will extend southwest from this surface low to South Texas Saturday morning with the cold front crossing the Appalachians by Saturday evening. ...Mid-Atlantic to the Southeast... A broad warm sector featuring low to mid 60s dewpoints will be in place ahead of the aforementioned cold front on Saturday morning. Convection will likely be ongoing along this front at the beginning of the period. This convection and associated cloud cover will likely inhibit destabilization ahead of the front with only weak instability forecast. Flow will be sufficient for some clusters or organized bowing segments, but the limited instability will probably limit a greater threat. Less cloudcover and greater destabilization is likely east of the Appalachians which could lead to a locally greater severe weather threat. Forecast soundings show around 35 to 45 knots of deep layer shear which could result in some organized storms. However, this threat should be short-lived as inhibition increases substantially after sunset. ...Deep South Texas... The majority of guidance shows the cold front/composite outflow in the Gulf/northern Mexico by 12Z Saturday, but some guidance (Hires NAM and somewhat the NSSL-WRF) shows a less progressive/slower southward movement of the boundary. Therefore, while a marginal severe weather risk appears less likely across Deep South Texas on Day 2/Saturday, the threat will be maintained for now since some guidance indicates the threat could exist and only slight timing differences from other guidance could result in some threat early on Day 2. ..Bentley.. 05/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible on Saturday from the Southeast to southern New England and across deep South Texas. ...Synopsis... A mid-level low will become closed across the Midwest on Saturday with an associated surface low traversing along the Ohio River. A cold front will extend southwest from this surface low to South Texas Saturday morning with the cold front crossing the Appalachians by Saturday evening. ...Mid-Atlantic to the Southeast... A broad warm sector featuring low to mid 60s dewpoints will be in place ahead of the aforementioned cold front on Saturday morning. Convection will likely be ongoing along this front at the beginning of the period. This convection and associated cloud cover will likely inhibit destabilization ahead of the front with only weak instability forecast. Flow will be sufficient for some clusters or organized bowing segments, but the limited instability will probably limit a greater threat. Less cloudcover and greater destabilization is likely east of the Appalachians which could lead to a locally greater severe weather threat. Forecast soundings show around 35 to 45 knots of deep layer shear which could result in some organized storms. However, this threat should be short-lived as inhibition increases substantially after sunset. ...Deep South Texas... The majority of guidance shows the cold front/composite outflow in the Gulf/northern Mexico by 12Z Saturday, but some guidance (Hires NAM and somewhat the NSSL-WRF) shows a less progressive/slower southward movement of the boundary. Therefore, while a marginal severe weather risk appears less likely across Deep South Texas on Day 2/Saturday, the threat will be maintained for now since some guidance indicates the threat could exist and only slight timing differences from other guidance could result in some threat early on Day 2. ..Bentley.. 05/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible on Saturday from the Southeast to southern New England and across deep South Texas. ...Synopsis... A mid-level low will become closed across the Midwest on Saturday with an associated surface low traversing along the Ohio River. A cold front will extend southwest from this surface low to South Texas Saturday morning with the cold front crossing the Appalachians by Saturday evening. ...Mid-Atlantic to the Southeast... A broad warm sector featuring low to mid 60s dewpoints will be in place ahead of the aforementioned cold front on Saturday morning. Convection will likely be ongoing along this front at the beginning of the period. This convection and associated cloud cover will likely inhibit destabilization ahead of the front with only weak instability forecast. Flow will be sufficient for some clusters or organized bowing segments, but the limited instability will probably limit a greater threat. Less cloudcover and greater destabilization is likely east of the Appalachians which could lead to a locally greater severe weather threat. Forecast soundings show around 35 to 45 knots of deep layer shear which could result in some organized storms. However, this threat should be short-lived as inhibition increases substantially after sunset. ...Deep South Texas... The majority of guidance shows the cold front/composite outflow in the Gulf/northern Mexico by 12Z Saturday, but some guidance (Hires NAM and somewhat the NSSL-WRF) shows a less progressive/slower southward movement of the boundary. Therefore, while a marginal severe weather risk appears less likely across Deep South Texas on Day 2/Saturday, the threat will be maintained for now since some guidance indicates the threat could exist and only slight timing differences from other guidance could result in some threat early on Day 2. ..Bentley.. 05/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible on Saturday from the Southeast to southern New England and across deep South Texas. ...Synopsis... A mid-level low will become closed across the Midwest on Saturday with an associated surface low traversing along the Ohio River. A cold front will extend southwest from this surface low to South Texas Saturday morning with the cold front crossing the Appalachians by Saturday evening. ...Mid-Atlantic to the Southeast... A broad warm sector featuring low to mid 60s dewpoints will be in place ahead of the aforementioned cold front on Saturday morning. Convection will likely be ongoing along this front at the beginning of the period. This convection and associated cloud cover will likely inhibit destabilization ahead of the front with only weak instability forecast. Flow will be sufficient for some clusters or organized bowing segments, but the limited instability will probably limit a greater threat. Less cloudcover and greater destabilization is likely east of the Appalachians which could lead to a locally greater severe weather threat. Forecast soundings show around 35 to 45 knots of deep layer shear which could result in some organized storms. However, this threat should be short-lived as inhibition increases substantially after sunset. ...Deep South Texas... The majority of guidance shows the cold front/composite outflow in the Gulf/northern Mexico by 12Z Saturday, but some guidance (Hires NAM and somewhat the NSSL-WRF) shows a less progressive/slower southward movement of the boundary. Therefore, while a marginal severe weather risk appears less likely across Deep South Texas on Day 2/Saturday, the threat will be maintained for now since some guidance indicates the threat could exist and only slight timing differences from other guidance could result in some threat early on Day 2. ..Bentley.. 05/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible on Saturday from the Southeast to southern New England and across deep South Texas. ...Synopsis... A mid-level low will become closed across the Midwest on Saturday with an associated surface low traversing along the Ohio River. A cold front will extend southwest from this surface low to South Texas Saturday morning with the cold front crossing the Appalachians by Saturday evening. ...Mid-Atlantic to the Southeast... A broad warm sector featuring low to mid 60s dewpoints will be in place ahead of the aforementioned cold front on Saturday morning. Convection will likely be ongoing along this front at the beginning of the period. This convection and associated cloud cover will likely inhibit destabilization ahead of the front with only weak instability forecast. Flow will be sufficient for some clusters or organized bowing segments, but the limited instability will probably limit a greater threat. Less cloudcover and greater destabilization is likely east of the Appalachians which could lead to a locally greater severe weather threat. Forecast soundings show around 35 to 45 knots of deep layer shear which could result in some organized storms. However, this threat should be short-lived as inhibition increases substantially after sunset. ...Deep South Texas... The majority of guidance shows the cold front/composite outflow in the Gulf/northern Mexico by 12Z Saturday, but some guidance (Hires NAM and somewhat the NSSL-WRF) shows a less progressive/slower southward movement of the boundary. Therefore, while a marginal severe weather risk appears less likely across Deep South Texas on Day 2/Saturday, the threat will be maintained for now since some guidance indicates the threat could exist and only slight timing differences from other guidance could result in some threat early on Day 2. ..Bentley.. 05/02/2025 Read more